I've Seen America: If Al Gore Ran In 2008

[stevep]

Well sounds like he's been successful but there could be big losses to the party at the mid-term elections, which might make later attempts at bills pretty much impossible.

[pericles]

THE BAY STATE DECIDES 

The liberal 'Lion of the Senate' , Edward Moore Kennedy, died on August 25, 2009​ 

On August 25, 2009, Ted Kennedy, who had held the Massachusetts Senate seat since 1962, lost his battle with brain cancer. Kennedy had been a historic figure, and while he never became President, his 1980 attempt ended in a humiliating defeat, he was a strong liberal and 'Lion of the Senate'. Gore said that Kennedy "was a legendary figure, a beacon of hope that the values of progress and fairness can shine through." More importantly though, it left a vacancy in the Senate. That vacancy was filled on September 23, 2009 with the appointment of Kennedy aide Paul Kirk to the seat by Democrat Governor Deval Patrick. However, a special election would be held on January 19, 2010.

Congressman Ed Markey, President Gore's choice to fill the Massachusetts Senate seat​ 

Initially, the frontrunner in the Democratic primary(and given this is Massachusetts, the general election) was Attorney General Martha Coakley. Coakley was a solid progressive who had taken on the insurance companies and the big banks. However, Gore did not warm to Coakley. The President would be irrelevant to the race, except he thought that his ally and author of the cap and trade, Congressman Ed Markey, would make a good Senator. Gore told Markey so. Markey was sceptical, but on October 1, 2009, he entered the race. Gore privately backed Markey and sought to push Coakley out of the race. urging her instead to run for Governor in 2014. Coakley refused and took offense to the suggestion.

It was now a bitter primary battle between Coakley and Markey. Coakley attacked Markey, but made a gaffe when she said that "he's an old white man, nothing special." Markey fired back this was offensive and unfairly using 'identity politics.' Markey defended his record on the cap and trade bill, while Coakley went to the White House's left and argued the bill did not go far enough and that "it just isn't good enough." Markey in response called her a "traitor to her party" and said Coakley should "run a serious campaign, not try and score political points." The other two candidates were former CEO Alan Khazei and Bain Capital managing director Stephen Pagliuca. Neither of them were serious candidates-it was Markey vs Coakley. However, they could act as spoilers. Coakley held an early lead over Markey, but the final polls put the race at a dead heat. In a move many Democrats found objectionable, there was a leak of Coakley's emails, showing that she was close to Thomas M Menino and that she had made a 'sweetheart deal' with the buyers of public land from Menino. Menino had been accused of misusing public office to reward a political ally by selling 200 acres of public land for development, but Coakley had declined to investigate. Markey said the leaks showed she was "untrustworthy." Coakley supporters later accused the Gore White House of being behind the leak. In the primary Markey narrowly beat Coakley getting 40% of the vote to Coakley's 38%. It looked as if Markey was the certain next Senator from Massachusetts. But he hadn't counted on Scott Brown.

Scott Brown, the Republican candidate for the Massachusetts Senate seat​ 

Markey had been through a tough primary, but he still seemed invulnerable. A poll for the Senate race on December 16 put Markey at 52% and Republican Scott Brown at 35%. Scott Brown was a Massachusetts state senator, and he portrayed himself as a truck-driving everyman, in contrast with his Washington insider opponent, who he attacked for being in Congress since 1976 as part of the "Washington swamp." Brown portrayed himself as a fiscal conservative(and attacked President Gore on the large deficit) and a Washington outsider, saying "I have always thought that being in government service is a privilege, not a right. This Senate seat doesn't belong to any one person or political party. It belongs to you, the people, and the people deserve a U.S. senator who will always put your interests first." The winner of the Senate seat would be critical. The cap and trade bill still needed to go to a conference between the House and Senate and then be passed again by the Senate as well as the House, which meant Gore could not afford to lose a single vote in the Senate. Brown promised to be the final no vote, and with Markey as the author of the cap and trade bill, the election was clearly a referendum on cap and trade. Brown argued that cap and trade "killed jobs" and attacked Washington and the Democrats for their "disingenuous tactics, dirty tricks" and "ramming the cap and tax down our throats." Brown was a liberal Republican but the kind of Republican who could win in Massachusetts.

On January 7, panic struck the White House as a PPP poll put Markey at 47% and Brown just one point behind at 46%. Markey, who had run a lackluster and passive campaign, was urged to go on the attack. Gore called Markey and told him to "rip Brown to shreds". It wasn't in Markey's nature, but he understood that Gore's entire agenda was on the line. He declared that he had stood up to the "special interests" in Congress, he launched a defense of cap and trade and said that Brown "sounds like a Fox News talking head" and he "serves the rich and powerful, not the ordinary people of Massachusetts." Markey labelled Brown a "con artist" and "fraud", and on January 17 said that "he hopes his pick-up truck can distract you from his dangerous conservative regressive agenda." The polls were neck in neck in the final days. Gore headed to Massachusetts to campaign for Markey. "Make no mistake" the President said "we need Ed Markey in the Senate. We need vote number 60, a vote for a progressive agenda that will lift up all Americans." The final Politico poll on the 17th put Brown at 49% and Markey at 45%, while the final PPP poll put Brown and Markey both at 48%.

Massachusetts Senate special election results
Ed Markey-Democratic: 49.53%
Scott Brown-Republican: 49.07%
Joseph Kennedy-Libertarian: 1.29%


Markey had won by the skin of his teeth, and so had Al Gore. Yet it was a warning sign nonetheless. Even in deep blue Massachusetts, President Gore was skating on thin ice. The Democrats risked not being so lucky in the 2010 midterms, and losing at least one house of Congress. Yet, cap and trade was likely to pass, and Gore had until November 2010 to continue unobstructed. 

[stevep]

Goods that was close. I think Gore made a mistake in seeking to displace the established local candicate in Coakley which made the Democrat selection a lot bloodier than it would otherwise have been. Going to be tight after 2010 unless Gore can seriously boost the parties performance as I can see the Republicans getting very obstrictive, probably even more than OTL.

[pericles]

Apr 20, 2017 17:04:11 GMT stevep said:

Goods that was close. I think Gore made a mistake in seeking to displace the established local candicate in Coakley which made the Democrat selection a lot bloodier than it would otherwise have been. Going to be tight after 2010 unless Gore can seriously boost the parties performance as I can see the Republicans getting very obstrictive, probably even more than OTL.

The primary was bloody but Coakley was a terrible candidate and probably would have lost. Predictions for the 2010 midterms?

[stevep]

Apr 21, 2017 4:47:34 GMT pericles said:

Apr 20, 2017 17:04:11 GMT stevep said:

Goods that was close. I think Gore made a mistake in seeking to displace the established local candicate in Coakley which made the Democrat selection a lot bloodier than it would otherwise have been. Going to be tight after 2010 unless Gore can seriously boost the parties performance as I can see the Republicans getting very obstrictive, probably even more than OTL.

The primary was bloody but Coakley was a terrible candidate and probably would have lost. Predictions for the 2010 midterms?

  Depends on how things go.  Normally there is a swing against the sitting power, which is the Democrats in the white house and also in Congress IIRC.  Plus the Republicans are likely to be as hostile and disruptive as OTL.  Hence unless Gore can point towards some successes that are clearly popular with a broad pool of voters I would expect some losses.  [There was a TV series on the Obama Presidency a few months back which studied his 8 years and some of the main issues and how after I think it was the 2010 elections Democrat losses largely hamstrung his ability to get policies passed]  Expect you will still get something like the Tea Party movement gaining a lot of attention and influence on a purely obstructive programme.

[pericles]

Another update is coming soon this TL is not dead!

[lordroel]

May 16, 2017 3:46:30 GMT pericles said:

Another update is coming soon this TL is not dead!

Nice to hear that.

[stevep]

May 16, 2017 3:53:50 GMT lordroel said:

May 16, 2017 3:46:30 GMT pericles said:

Another update is coming soon this TL is not dead!

Nice to hear that.

  I'll definitely echo that.

[pericles]

FINISHING THE JOB 

The House Democratic leadership(and Senator Ed Markey) promotes the cap and trade bill​ 

The Democratic victory in the Massachusetts Senate election ensured that President Gore would have 60 votes in the Senate for cap and trade, enabling him to finish the job of passing the cap and trade bill through Congress. The Senate and House bills had major differences that would need to be resolved before they reached Al Gore's desk. This meant that the House and Senate went to conference to iron out the differences, before passing a conference bill. The Senate bill had loopholes in order to gain the votes of key Senators and had increased the cap and increased subsidies for renewable energy to compensate. The Senate bill, unlike the House bill, also added a program of assistance and retraining for those who would 'experience destabilization'(lose their jobs) as a result of the bill's passage and implementation. The Senate bill delayed the implementation of the cap to 2013, while the House bill had the system come into effect in August 2011. Gore played a key part in the negotiations. He wanted implementation moved to January 2012, enough time to give it a chance of surviving a Republican victory in the 2012 election and enough to allow the market to adjust to the new system. The conference bill eliminated the most egregious special favors, and watered down the regulations to only require a 17% reduction in emissions by 2020 and electricity providers now had to produce electricity from 22% renewable energy. Gore was determined to get the bill passed, regardless of the cost.

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh was the swing vote on the cap and trade bill​ 

The conference version of the ACECCMA(also known as the Waxman-Markey Act), headed to the House floor. This time the Democrats wanted not just to scrape by but to gain a solid majority in the chamber for the bill. Pelosi and Gore were determined to avoid the Democratic defections of the first House vote. However, more Democrats were wary of the bill and defecting. Republicans sought to club vulnerable Democrats with the 'cap and tax' club in the 2010 midterms. Democrats from moderate and conservative districts faced the prospect of losing their seats, and the Republicans began to have a shot at taking the House itself. Anti-cap and trade interests funded an ad campaign against the bill and ran a repeat of the 'Harry and Louise' ads that destroyed Hillaryare in 1994, showing a middle class family facing increased tax bills and energy costs as a result of Gore's legislation. Public skepticism on global warming, fueled by the record colds of 2009 and the relentless GOP campaign, was at its highest level in years, with a Gallup poll showing that 54% believed global warming was underestimated or appropriately assessed to 44% believing it was overestimated. 48% thought global warming was human-caused and 48% thought it was naturally caused. Yet as effective public opinion, or the threat of it, was on undecideds, Pelosi was more effective. The President also personally lobbied, called and met wavering Democrats and several Republicans(such as Delaware Congressman Mike Castle) to get them to vote for the cap and trade bill. In the end the Waxman-Markey Act got more votes the second time around, passing 232-201. It now went to the Senate. Gore sought just to keep the 60 votes it got the first time around. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh was the swing vote, and Bayh was worried the bill would damage his coal-producing state, and felt angered by having some of the concessions Gore had given him taken out. Gore however did not have the issue of public opinion to deal with in persuading Bayh, as Bayh was retiring in 2010. Ultimately, Bayh stayed on side. Cap and trade passed 60-39 again, and on March 15, 2010, the Waxman-Markey Act was signed into law. A happy and triumphant President Gore declared that "this is a historic step forward in combating climate change and giving our nation energy independence. Despite all the voices saying 'no', despite all the attacks and opposition, climate action and science triumphed over denialism and partisanship."

President Gore paid a political price for his cap and trade push​ 

Gore's push for cap and trade had taken a political toll on him and the Democratic Party. Combined with a worsening recession, as unemployment in February 2010 was 9.3%, Gore's approval ratings fell below 50%. In February 2010 Gore's approval rating was 49% and falling. Democrats looked increasingly vulnerable for the 2010 midterms, as showcased by the Massachusetts special election. 'Cap and tax' had energized the conservative base but not the liberal base. And Gore had the inkling feeling that things were about to get worse, not better. Gore did feel that he had accomplished a lot; stimulus, the Afghanistan surge, foreclosure action, the auto bailout, credit card reform, cap and trade, and in that were many accomplishments that deserved their own legislation. But in the message wars, the Republicans had the momentum. Gore had to concede Democrats could have communicated cap and trade better. Yet, Gore still had a while yet until the midterms. And he wasn't finished, not yet. Up next were financial reform and healthcare reform.

[stevep]

Well success with the bill but possibly bad consequencies for the party and his ability to do more in the 2nd part of the term. Although hopefully he can turn it around. Hopefully the US will start really coming out of the 2008 depression and things will pick up. Financial reforms, especially if this includes regulation of the financial markets to reduce the chance of a report of the 2008 collapse could possibly be both good for the economy and very popular.