Post by raharris1973 on Oct 9, 2022 7:27:23 GMT
Adua was basically the italian commander snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, in any case an italian victory doesn't mean an annexation like 1936 but more Abyssinia becoming an official italian puppet with the full implementation of the italian version of the previous treaty and probably an enlargement of the Eritrea colony.
as consequences:
- Well internally Crispi will remain presidente del consiglio for some more time, the light version of the duce will still govern italy but he has only few years more of life, so once he kick the bucket Giolitti will fully take control of the italian politics. During this years we can see a further worsening of the relationship between Italy and France and a very Germanophile politics and no attempt to make A-H angry in any way
- Kassala will remain under Italian control, without the defeat and the need to regroup there will be no order to retreat on the previous border; so the British will face the fait accomplit (that they agreed previously) that the italians still control the place, so there is the strong possibility that the city will remain under italian control permanently
- Italian prestige will not receive such a blow and there will be no need to 'avenge' Adua and this mean that a fully invasion of Libya is no more a given
Interesting projections onto the larger European scene, how this is good for Germany and bad for France.
I suspect the knock-on effects would also be good for two other empires: The Ottoman and the Austro-Hungarian
Why? Because if Italy ends up not motivated to do a full invasion of Libya, the Ottomans avoid getting attacked and beaten there and in the Dodecanese by the Italians. And if they avoid that, it also becomes much less likely the Balkan League attacks the Ottomans. This also should head off the series of coups putting the sillyheaded Enver Pasha in charge.
The lack of Serbian expansion and increased confidence that went with it should be good for Austria-Hungary also.