I've Seen America: If Al Gore Ran In 2008

[lordroel]

Feb 21, 2017 20:46:36 GMT stevep said:

Interesting combination of people. Not sure I know that much about them but does sound likeGore's trying to set up a broad based government to enable substantial changes to legistration.

Well, lets hope he has picked right.

[pericles]

INAUGURATION OF A NEW ERA 

Al Gore is inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States​ 

It was a brisk and chilly inauguration day on January 20, 2009, in Washington DC, and Al Gore took the Oath of Office. The crowd was large, estimates put it between 500,000 and 1 million. The day was marred by threats of a terrorist attack, and preparations were made to protect the President-Elect as Al-Shabaab was rumored to be plotting an attack on the inaugural. However, nothing came of it, and the inauguration went ahead as planned. Chief Justice John Roberts swore in Al Gore as the 44th President. Gore and Bush rode down Pennsylvania Avenue together. Neither was especially fond of the other, but both appreciated the other's support in the transition and now, 2000 was just a memory. They were cordial and Gore thanked Bush for his service to the nation, regardless of whether he agreed with all of Bush's decisions(he didn't). At 12:45 pm, Al Gore took the Oath. "I, Albert Arnold Gore Junior" continuing "do solemnly swear to faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States". After the Oath was done. Al Gore delivered his inaugural address to the nation. In his inaugural address, Gore sought to unite the nation, set out the defining principles of his presidency and move from the campaign to, finally, President of the United States. Gore declared "We gather here today for a new era in American history, one in which we move beyond the petty squabbling and failures of the past to action, real action. Through all of history, when we face great challenges as a nation, we have beaten them. I see no shortage of challenges for our nation. But, my fellow Americans, I know that we can beat them." Gore described "a nation on the brink", promising to "protect your jobs and create new employment for a prosperous America going into the 21st century", "a planet that is being fried," declaring "we must harness our collective courage to confront this challenge. America can beat climate change, free ourselves from the fossil fuels of old to become the clean energy superpower of the 21st century." Gore promised to "end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving behind stable and secure nations", "defeat the threat of terrorism and protect our homeland" and "bring our troops home." He said "We can bring healthcare to millions more Americans and lower its cost, rebuild our infrastructure, bring our troops home, lift the crippling burden of poverty from millions of Americans. bring our middle class back and preserve this one planet that we depend upon." Gore sought to portray himself as non-ideological, saying "As President, I am not interested in a government that is bigger or a government that is smaller. I am interested in a government that is better for our nation and for all Americans." Gore made clear that whatever his centrist rhetoric, he was ready to work with his opponents, but not for them. At the end, he declared "Let us move forward as a nation, to face our demons and beat them, and make America great again." Gore's address was judged to be successful, one of his strongest throughout his long career, and Tipper told him "That was a pretty good speech, Al."

President Gore and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, both would be dependent on the other to advance the Democratic agenda​ 

Gore sought as President to project an image of action. With the economy in a rapid downturn, Gore needed to show that he cared and was taking action. This meant getting 'points on the board' and quickly advancing measures that benefited ordinary Americans. FDR had the first 100 days, and Gore knew that his first 100 days would be critical. Washington DC was a swamp, where big dreams went to die, but Gore saw an opportunity, with big Democratic majorities, to break through and get those points on the board. Chief among them was the stimulus, or American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. Gore set out his agenda for the year, Climate change was his issue and he felt it deserved big action, not just itty bitty stuff, in 2009. Carol Browner advised that the administration go for cap and trade after the stimulus. Gore agreed, however his political advisers urged him not to. Cap and trade could be construed as a tax, even though it was the remedy to that dilemma and the more free-market solution to climate change, compared to a top-down carbon tax. A tax instead of jobs in a recession, for an issue far more abstract than jobs, it would crash the system. These were the people that Browner dismissed as 'hacks'. She complained that they focused only on winning elections and nothing more. That mindset, Gore felt, had been part of the reason that Bill Clinton, while popular, had not left a lasting policy legacy. Gore was adamant. "If not now" he asked "then when?" Nobody could answer that. From here things could only go downhill, majorities could only shrink, political capital could only disappear. Gore didn't want to look back in regret, in that he could have been transformational but failed to do so. No, he would do the stimulus, then cap and trade in late 2009.

 

President Al Gore holds an event with Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger of California in support of the stimulus​ 

Even before he took office, Gore was taking action. The stimulus was being full speed ahead by the Democratic Congress, so Gore could sign it as soon as he took office. However, Republicans threatened to filibuster the bill in the Senate, where the Democrats only had 58 votes, 2 short of surviving a filibuster without Republican votes. Gore needed to lure at least 2 Republican votes in, preferably more. Arlen Spectre and Olympia Snowe were receptive, and so were several other moderate Republicans. Initially, Gore offered no tax cuts, arguing that, as many economists did, tax cuts were not truly stimulative and would only be used to pay down debt and not spend and so revive the economy. However, the Republicans wanted tax cuts in the bill, and argued that they would help stimulate the economy by helping the middle class and help Gore too. Gore then agreed to put $250 billion in tax cuts for the middle class into the bill. Gore met with the Republican caucus three days before Inauguration Day. He told them that "You can't govern to help people and listen to Rush Limbaugh. There has to be a choice." Gore was sending the message that they could be a talk show party or a governing party. However, most had already made the choice, and not the one Gore wanted. Republicans dedicated themselves not to compromise but confrontation, as the base turned right, so did the party's politicians. For most, Al Gore was politically radioactive. Gore sought to pass the stimulus with the little support he had from Republicans, and press that Republican governors such as Arnold Schwarzenegger and Charlie Crist for the stimulus. In a political masterstroke, on January 29, Gore held an event on Capitol Hill with Schwarzenegger and Crist, and they urged Congress to pass the stimulus "as quickly as possible" to "save jobs and protect the livelihoods of millions of Americans."


The stimulus passed the House, though with only 10 Republican votes. It now entered the Senate, where Republicans threatened a filibuster. It was an $858 billion bill, and included direct spending in infrastructure, education, health, and energy, federal tax incentives, and expansion of unemployment insurance and other social welfare provisions. Of note was billions invested in renewable energy, Gore claimed the bill was a "major step forward to creating clean energy jobs and shifting America towards clean renewable energy." Gore sought to woo Republican Senators to his support. Arlen Spectre's big issue was cancer, having survied two bouts of Hodgkin's lymphoma. He pushed for, and got a 34% increase, worth $10 billion, in the NIH budget(National Institutes of Health). Senators Collins and Snowe of Maine were also swing votes, and oddly enough they insisted that spending be cut, not added from the bill. In the end, the stimulus passed the Senate 64-35, with 6 Republican votes; Arlen Spectre of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snowe of Maine, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Mel Martinez of Florida and George Voinovich of Ohio. On February 14, President Al Gore signed it into law. The stimulus was under fire on cable TV, and Republicans sought to portray it as a wasteful boondoggle for special interests. Yet, it was a significant achievement on Gore's part. It was a big economic stimulus that was much-needed, but it also invested billions in science, education, renewable energy. Gore thought that he was hard done by that it all had to go in one bill, if it had been five landmark pieces of legislation then he may have gotten more credit. But one it was, because in the congressional swamp that was how it had to be done. Gore now hoped it would produce the economic results he was banking on.

[stevep]

Sounding promising. He's getting some republican moderates to support him in key points and avoiding the problem Obama had of Democrats being too cautious when they had the chance to make changes.

Can't see him being successful in ending the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, at least not with anything that looks like stable and civilised governments. Simply because I can't see anybody achieving that.

However provided the Republican backwoodsmen can't do too much damage there seems a decent chance that a lot of economic and social changes can be passed.

Steve

[pericles]

FOREIGN POLICY RESET 

Newly-confirmed Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke's official portrait, 2009​ 

Al Gore entered office with America's international reputation at its lowest ebb in decades. The unilateralism of George W Bush, who invaded Iraq without the support of the UN or many of America's traditional allies, had damaged America's reputation abroad. Gore had talked about a 'foreign policy reset' in the campaign and sought to work through, and not outside of, global forums like NATO and the UN, unlike Bush. Gore and his foreign policy team saw the key objectives of his foreign policy were to win the war in Afghanistan and reset relations with the Muslim world. The Senate easily confirmed Gore's nominee for Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke, who did not get a single vote against his nomination. Most of Gore's cabinet was easily confirmed, though Summers and Sibelius were targeted, Sibelius was attacked by anti-abortion groups, and Republicans tore into their former colleague, Judd Gregg. But even they were confirmed. Gore and Holbrooke made clear that after 8 years of Bush, there was a new establishment in town, and the Gore-Holbrooke foreign policy would mark a clear break with the Bush years.

The first foreign policy issue Gore needed to deal with was to ensure that the global recession did not become a global depression. In 1933, FDR had rejected the idea of a global solution to the Great Depression, and instead looked inward for domestic solutions. The 1933 London Economic Conference proved a failure Gore however did not have that luxury, and in April 2009 a global economic conference of the G-20 was held in London. The emrgency 2009 meeting was the largest meeting of global leaders facing an economic crisis since the failed 1933 meeting. Indeed, the press thought it was a failure, as most countries refused to provide more troops for Afghanistan or take up Gore's call for a stimulus, as he had done. Gore's speech at the event was also underwhelming.However, substantively, the event was a success. The G-20 agreed to spend $1 trillion to bolster each other's financial institutions and $500 billion for the IMF to help stabilise the global economy. There were also none of the failures of the 1930s; no squabbling, fatal miscommunication or rush to protectionism. The withdrawal from Iraq went well, the US withdrawal of troops from Iraq continued full speed ahead, as per the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement that President Bush had negotiated (and was set to expire in 2011) Violence fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the war, at just 139 American deaths, half the 2008 fatalities. Gore only held two meetings about Iraq in 2009, in a reflection of the increased stability of the situation there. This enabled him to focus his foreign policy on Afghanistan and winning the war there.

Defense secretary Bob Gates, at West Point, 2009​ 

The Gore administration saw a power struggle between Bob Gates and Richard Holbrooke. President Gore valued Gates's experience and that he offered bipartisan cover for controversial decisions. Gore was closer to Secretary Holbrooke, who had worked with longer and trusted more. Gates disdained Holbrooke as ineffective, while Holbrooke thought Gates was insufficiently loyal to the administration, and they clashed on Afghanistan policy and in other areas. Gore usually sided with Holbrooke, due to his closeness with him, and Gates was left frustrated at his inability to gain traction in the administration. He was never expected to stay on permanently, and Gates resolved to be gone by 2011, so Gore could replace him outside of an election year.

One pressing foreign policy issue President Gore faced was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The last two administration's attempts to negotiate a peace in the region had flopped, and the situation had only deteriorated. President Gore was committed to the security and survival of Israel, and in his first speech on the topic in February 2009 he condemned the Palestinians, saying that they "should not be excused from their responsibility for the violence we have seen in recent years, nor for the failure of the peace negotiations. To reach a true peace, we must acknowledge both sides are responsible for the conflict and both must give ground for the long-term good." Negotiations in the region had ground to a standstill. Gore appointed George Mitchell to be special envoy to Israel-Palestine, to avoid Holbrooke getting bogged down in the region as Condoleeza Rice had. This enabled him to focus on the bigger picture as Secretary of State. Gore urged Israel to dismantle the settlements in the West Bank, however no progress was made there. The White House was also deeply frustrated with the Palestinians, who refused to give any ground until the settlements were removed, and they expressed disbelief that they expected to get "a camel for a goat." Despite Gore's increased push on the settlements(though a continuation of Bush-era policy) his standing in Israel was steady. Netanyahu, while not Gore's preferred choice for Prime Minister of Israel, got along well with the President. Gore had received 80% of the Jewish-American vote in 2008, and was trusted by that community. However, that could not ignore that the administration's main strategy in Israel-Palestine was to try create the foundations for a peace when conditions improved.

The main foreign policy crisis Gore faced was Afghanistan-Pakistan. The situation there had deteriorated, with the Taliban regaining strength, and it had been treated as a secondary war to Iraq. Gore faced demands from the generals and the Pentagon for additional troops on the ground, a troop surge as had worked in Iraq in 2007. Gore feared that it could become another Vietnam and consume his presidency, and he was determined to win the war without unnecessary loss of blood and treasure. Dealing with Af-Pak would take up much of the second half of 2009, and there, most of all, was a true reset needed.

[stevep]

I think Af-Pak as you term it is going to be virtually impossible, if only because of limited influence on Pakistan and its own hard line reactionary Muslim factions. [Dislike hearing such people being called radicals as their not. The exact opposite I would say]. However while I can't see any progress on Israel/Palistine either that's likely to be less damaging to the administration.

The other interesting point will be reactions to Putin and his antics.

Anyway another good read. Please keep it up.

[pericles]

AFGHANISTAN=VIETNAM? 

July and August 2009 were the deadliest months of the US's war in Afghanistan​ 

Iraq had been at the center of the US war effort in the War on Terror. Ignored was the war in Afghanistan, where the US fought to stabilize the nation after overthrowing the Taliban and routing Al-Qaeda in 2001. With Iraq stabilizing, the US now needed to confront the challenge of Afghanistan. The situation on the ground was deteriorating, with the Taliban resurgent, and the government weak and corrupt. Gore feared that, like so many other empires before him, the US could end up dogged down in the quagmire of Afghanistan, the so-called 'Graveyard of Empires.' Gore told Tom Daschle that of all the challenges he faced, 'Af-Pak' was the one that kept him up at night.

Gore's desire for a reset in Afghanistan had limits though. In May 2009, Secretary Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen urged that President Gore dismiss commanding General David McKiernan, to reset the Afghanistan war effort. They argued that McKiernan was not nible enough to handle the non-military aspects of the mission, and with Afghanistan falling into chaos, new leadership was needed. Gore agreed that change was needed, but he was wary that sacking McKiernan would be counter-productive. McKiernan was a respected career officer, and he had only had a year on the job. He argued that sacking of generals was extremely rare, and so it would be destabilising, and lock in all remaining generals as bulletproof, while delaying the formation of a plan until September, when the situation would be more difficult politically in both Kabul and Washington. Unconvinced by Mullen and Gates, President Gore resolved to keep McKiernan in command.

President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and his rival Abdullah Abdullah​ 

Gore's relationship with Hamid Karzai was cold. Karzai had had twice monthly teleconferences with Bush, where Bush had read through a list of things that needed to be done and Karzai would solemnly promise to achieve them, and then nothing would get done. The new administration saw the calls as a waste of time, and ended them. The White House was increasingly frustrated with Karzai, who they saw as incompetent and unhelpful, while Karzai felt disrespected by the President. The 2009 elections were repeatedly delayed by Karzai. When they were finally held, they were a disaster. The administration's fears of violence did not come to fruition, instead Karzai stole a million votes and rigged the election. It took weeks to sort out the returns and convince Karzai to hold a runoff. Frustratingly, Karzai's margin was big enough that he would have won even without the theft, all it did was undermine the legitimacy of the government and the US efforts to stablize Afghanistan. Karzai's opponent, Abdullah Abdullah, threatened to withdraw from the runoff if the head of the Independent Election Commission(IEC), Azizullah Lodin, was not sacked. Then, it came back from the brink. Holbrooke pushed for a power-sharing deal between Abdullah and Karzai. Karzai and Abdullah were reluctant, but strong-armed by the US, Karzai relented. On October 25, several weeks before the planned runoff, the two candidates jointly announced the power-sharing agreement, with Karzai remaining President and Abdullah taking an important position in the government. It was the ideal outcome for the US, they had 'clipped Karzai's wings', increased the influence of reformists, got a government that a majority of Afghans could get behind and restored the legitimacy of the democratic process there.

In February 2009, President Gore ordered a troop surge of 20,000 troops to Afghanistan to bolster the 36,000-strong force currently in that country. Gore declared that "the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated, and the Taliban and Al-Qaeda have regained a foothold in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region. This threatens the stability of Afghanistan, and ultimately the security of the United States, exposing us to the threat of more attacks like 9/11. Our forces in the region must be backed up to be able to defeat the Taliban and bring stability and security to Afghanistan." General McKiernan told Gore that more troops still would be needed. Gore feared that he would suffer from 'mission creep', escalating the war without a clear purpose or exit strategy. He wanted a civilian strategy too, to provide the political leadership necessary to enable Afghanistan and to enable Afghanistan to become a self-sufficient democracy. The military told Gore that a military solution would be needed before a political solution could be effective. The surge in Iraq, contrary to Gore's campaign rhetoric, had been wildly successful. Gore recognised that, and saw the potential for a similar approach in Afghanistan.

President Gore ordered a 'surge' of thousands more US troops into Afghanistan​ 

Gore still had not reached a decision though. However, the key was that while there were many in his administration pressing for a surge, including the military and Secretary Gates, there were no doves on the other side close to Gore arguing against it. Holbrooke leant towards a surge, he was only undecided on the exact scope and how long it would last. Vice-President Feingold expressed opposition to a surge, but he was sidelined in the administration, and anyway he did not have any major foreign policy experience. On August 20, Feingold said on Meet the Press that he "could not support" a surge, and that "the only sensible course is to end this disastrous war and let the Afghans rebuild, or we will only fuel the expansion of terrorism." He had gone too far for Gore, having signaled a potential break with the administration. He received a furious dressing down from the President and was sternly warned "don't ever step on my toes again." While it was always apparent Gore would fall down on the side of a surge, the details of the plan were far less clear. Gore told McKiernan that he would not accept a plan that dragged on the war without light at the end of the tunnel and increased, not reduced, Afghan dependency on US military might. On October 1, Gore gave preliminary approval to a military plan to send 50,000 new troops to Afghanistan over the next 2 years. The withdrawal would begin at some point before the 2012 election, Gore set 2017 as the year, when he hoped he would leave office, as the year that all US troops would leave Afghanistan. Gore reluctantly brought into the military's vision. Afghanistan needed to be stable, more troops were needed for that, and the US could not afford to leave a bleeding Afghanistan behind. The Soviets and the international community had done that in the 1990s, and that enabled the rise of the Taliban and 9/11. But Gore was equally determined to avoid his presidency getting bogged down in the Afghanistan quicksand. He gave a speech on the subject at West Point on October 28. He announced that 50,000 US troops would go to Afghanistan, and that "a timetable for withdrawal will be set in the coming months and years, and it is my intention to begin the withdrawal before the 2012 election." Gore's substance was escalating the mission, but from his rhetoric you may have thought he was drawing it down. "America has born too high a price for a war with no end in sight" Gore declared "We owe it to our brave troops to give them a mission that can succeed, or end the mission." He declared "We will begin the devolution of responsibilities to the Afghan people and government. Afghanistan can only be stable and secure through the work of Afghans, not our military forces." Gore did not talk of the glory of war, no Bush-like language of the glory of the cause. He made plain the "true price of war" in blood and treasure. He gave no definition of victory in Afghanistan or the overall War on Terror. He declared "We must begin on the path to peace and not on endless unwinnable wars." The rhetoric may have been considered misleading. However, Gore did not think so. He believed that only a surge could truly bring peace, or as Nixon once said, 'peace with honor'. Now, Afghanistan would make or break his hopes and his plans.

[pericles]

HANDLING THE MESS 

This political cartoon shows public frustration with Wall Street bonuses and bailouts while the rest of the economy crashed​ 

By the time Gore took office, the threat to the financial system had dissipated. TARP had ensured that the global financial system, while taking a shock, would not go under. However, the rest of the economy was tumbling down, down, down. Unemployment rose from 7.8% in January to 8.3% in February, 8.7% in March, 8.8% in May and 9.3% in May. Gore had been left the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression by President Bush and he had only a limited amount of time to clean it up before the public rendered their verdict in the 2010 midterms. The political mood was turning increasingly populist as the public was increasingly angry at the Washington establishment and Wall Street. Gore had promised to Make America Great Again, but that seemed an increasingly daunting task. On March 26, 2009, the RCP average showed 59.8% of Americans thought the country was on the wrong track to 32.8% who thought it was on the right track. That was admittedly a strong improvement on the numbers in 2008, and Gore was still in his honeymoon period, with him getting a 55% approval rating and 28% disapproving, according to a March 30 Gallup poll.

The issue of Wall Street bonuses was an especially annoying one for Gore. It struck at the heart of public frustration at Wall Street. The firms that had driven the global economy into the ground and were rescued with taxpayer money through TARP were now lavishing their top executives with billions in bonuses. Their excuse was that this was necessary for the retention of valued executives, the public saw it as yet another example of corporate greed. Gore was privately frustrated with the bonuses too, he raged at "those idiots" and their "deep stupidity and irresponsibility." Gore's public stance was initially too nuanced, nine days after entering office he said that he disagreed with the bonuses but "I won't focus on scapegoating Wall Street, which is very important to our economy, and I will focus on protecting and boosting our economy for ordinary Americans. And I intend to pass financial reform with Congress to ensure the crisis we have seen does not ever happen again." Gore's comments were criticized as too deferential to Wall Street. His political advisers urged a tougher stance on bonuses. The Treasury, led by Larry Summers, argued differently. In the Senate, Claire McCaskill pushed for a bill that would limit executive compensation for the firms receiving TARP money to the president's salary of $400,000. Gore gave rhetorical support to the bill, now taking the stand that Wall Street's bonuses were "unacceptable". However, he allowed the bill to die quietly in the Senate, as if it had passed it could have led to firms trying to get out of TARP and the associated restrictions before it was safe for them to do so.

Treasury Secretary Larry Summers argued against a populist policy on Wall Street bonuses​ 

In March, the bonuses story suddenly got hotter. It was reported that AIG had given $165 million in bonuses to top executives even as their company crashed and the global economy with it. Gore, encouraged by his political advisers, took an aggressive tone on bonuses. He declared that the bonuses were "reprehensible" and "it's just intolerable what they(Wall Street) think they can get away with. We will be looking into every legal avenue towards getting those bonuses back." However, Gore, while outraged, saw that any policy solution would be counterproductive. President Gore took an increasingly populist tone on bonuses, lambasting the "irresponsible, bloated corporate greed" of Wall Street. Wall Street increasingly saw Gore as the enemy, who unfairly scapegoated them to score political points. They were right about the political points part, though Gore would take issue with the 'unfairly' part.

The financial crisis by now had leaked into the rest of the economy. Millions of Americans faced the threat of foreclosure. Bush's 'Hope for Homeowners' program had been an unmitigated failure, helping only a few hundred homeowners. Gore sought to help the homeowners facing foreclosure. Gore allocated $120 billion of TARP money to foreclosure mitigation, despite Summers's fears that the TARP well could run dry. However, the unemployed, those with mortgages far beyond their ability to pay, and speculators were excluded from the policy. In March 2009, Gore announced a plan to spend $320 billion on foreclosure mitigation, focused on subsiding those that were judged to have a shot at staying in their homes. The plan, the Home Owner Protection and Foreclosure Prevention Act (HOPFPA), colloquially known as the 'foreclosure bailout' was introduced to Congress. Gore saw that, despite the political risks, a depressed housing market would drag down the entire economy and that only a strong government-led response, as had taken place under FDR, could solve the crisis. Conservatives attacked the foreclosure bailout, arguing it bailed out irresponsible buyers and created a moral hazard. and that it would be bailing out the 'losers' putting taxpayer money at risk.

Rick Santelli's famous rant against the foreclosure bailout, pictured above, showcased conservative opposition to the President's plan to combat the housing crisis​ 

On February 22, in an attack on Gore's foreclosure plans, CNBC commentator Rick Santelli delivered a fiery rant on the CME floor. "You know, the government is promoting bad behavior! Why don't you put up a website to have people vote on the Internet in a referendum to see if we really want to subsidize these losers' mortgages? Or would we like to, at least, buy cars and buy houses in foreclosure? Give 'em to people that might have a chance to actually prosper down the road, and reward people that could carry the water instead of drink the water. (cheers from traders) This is America! How many of you people want to pay for your neighbors mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills? Raise their hand! (boos from traders) President Gore, are you listening?(trader in background "How about we all stop paying our mortgage? It's a moral hazard)" This gave the impression that many Americans were opposed to aiding people facing foreclosure. However, Santelli and the commodity traders were not representative of a majority of Americans, and a Gallup poll in March showed 56% in support of Gore's plan to 39% opposed.


However, the strident rhetoric from conservative Republicans created an impression opposition to Gore's plan was stronger than it actually was. Many moderate Democrats feared that bailing out the 'losers' would hurt them in the 2010 midterms. Republicans mounted intense opposition to the plan, and protests occurred against it. Gore's White House failed to communicate their message to the American people and let the Republicans take the narrative. Intense lobbying from the administration ensured it would pass Congress. The House passed the HOPFPA on May 1 with 237 in favor to 198 opposed. It got 2 Republican votes, while 18 Democrats voted against it. In the Senate, the Republicans threatened a filibuster. However, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania defected from the Republican Party to the Democrats in April 2009, saying "As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party." That Specter would likely have been beaten by conservative challenger Pat Toomey in a Republican primary also played a part. The plan needed just 1 more vote to get over the line. Olympia Snowe was intensely lobbied by Gore, and on May 15 she came out in favor. The Senate passed the HOPFPA on May 17 60-39. Gore signed it into law the next day, creating the Home Owners Protection Agency, modeled on FDR's Home Owners Loan Corporation. Gore hoped that it would enable him, like FDR, to overcome the economic crisis unscathed and bring America's economy back. That remained to be seen.

[lordroel]

Mar 10, 2017 5:10:28 GMT pericles said:

HANDLING THE MESS 

This political cartoon shows public frustration with Wall Street bonuses and bailouts while the rest of the economy crashed​ 

By the time Gore took office, the threat to the financial system had dissipated. TARP had ensured that the global financial system, while taking a shock, would not go under. However, the rest of the economy was tumbling down, down, down. Unemployment rose from 7.8% in January to 8.3% in February, 8.7% in March, 8.8% in May and 9.3% in May. Gore had been left the deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression by President Bush and he had only a limited amount of time to clean it up before the public rendered their verdict in the 2010 midterms. The political mood was turning increasingly populist as the public was increasingly angry at the Washington establishment and Wall Street. Gore had promised to Make America Great Again, but that seemed an increasingly daunting task. On March 26, 2009, the RCP average showed 59.8% of Americans thought the country was on the wrong track to 32.8% who thought it was on the right track. That was admittedly a strong improvement on the numbers in 2008, and Gore was still in his honeymoon period, with him getting a 55% approval rating and 28% disapproving, according to a March 30 Gallup poll.

The issue of Wall Street bonuses was an especially annoying one for Gore. It struck at the heart of public frustration at Wall Street. The firms that had driven the global economy into the ground and were rescued with taxpayer money through TARP were now lavishing their top executives with billions in bonuses. Their excuse was that this was necessary for the retention of valued executives, the public saw it as yet another example of corporate greed. Gore was privately frustrated with the bonuses too, he raged at "those idiots" and their "deep stupidity and irresponsibility." Gore's public stance was initially too nuanced, nine days after entering office he said that he disagreed with the bonuses but "I won't focus on scapegoating Wall Street, which is very important to our economy, and I will focus on protecting and boosting our economy for ordinary Americans. And I intend to pass financial reform with Congress to ensure the crisis we have seen does not ever happen again." Gore's comments were criticized as too deferential to Wall Street. His political advisers urged a tougher stance on bonuses. The Treasury, led by Larry Summers, argued differently. In the Senate, Claire McCaskill pushed for a bill that would limit executive compensation for the firms receiving TARP money to the president's salary of $400,000. Gore gave rhetorical support to the bill, now taking the stand that Wall Street's bonuses were "unacceptable". However, he allowed the bill to die quietly in the Senate, as if it had passed it could have led to firms trying to get out of TARP and the associated restrictions before it was safe for them to do so.

Treasury Secretary Larry Summers argued against a populist policy on Wall Street bonuses​ 

In March, the bonuses story suddenly got hotter. It was reported that AIG had given $165 million in bonuses to top executives even as their company crashed and the global economy with it. Gore, encouraged by his political advisers, took an aggressive tone on bonuses. He declared that the bonuses were "reprehensible" and "it's just intolerable what they(Wall Street) think they can get away with. We will be looking into every legal avenue towards getting those bonuses back." However, Gore, while outraged, saw that any policy solution would be counterproductive. President Gore took an increasingly populist tone on bonuses, lambasting the "irresponsible, bloated corporate greed" of Wall Street. Wall Street increasingly saw Gore as the enemy, who unfairly scapegoated them to score political points. They were right about the political points part, though Gore would take issue with the 'unfairly' part.

The financial crisis by now had leaked into the rest of the economy. Millions of Americans faced the threat of foreclosure. Bush's 'Hope for Homeowners' program had been an unmitigated failure, helping only a few hundred homeowners. Gore sought to help the homeowners facing foreclosure. Gore allocated $120 billion of TARP money to foreclosure mitigation, despite Summers's fears that the TARP well could run dry. However, the unemployed, those with mortgages far beyond their ability to pay, and speculators were excluded from the policy. In March 2009, Gore announced a plan to spend $320 billion on foreclosure mitigation, focused on subsiding those that were judged to have a shot at staying in their homes. The plan, the Home Owner Protection and Foreclosure Prevention Act (HOPFPA), colloquially known as the 'foreclosure bailout' was introduced to Congress. Gore saw that, despite the political risks, a depressed housing market would drag down the entire economy and that only a strong government-led response, as had taken place under FDR, could solve the crisis. Conservatives attacked the foreclosure bailout, arguing it bailed out irresponsible buyers and created a moral hazard. and that it would be bailing out the 'losers' putting taxpayer money at risk.

Rick Santelli's famous rant against the foreclosure bailout, pictured above, showcased conservative opposition to the President's plan to combat the housing crisis​ 

On February 22, in an attack on Gore's foreclosure plans, CNBC commentator Rick Santelli delivered a fiery rant on the CME floor. "You know, the government is promoting bad behavior! Why don't you put up a website to have people vote on the Internet in a referendum to see if we really want to subsidize these losers' mortgages? Or would we like to, at least, buy cars and buy houses in foreclosure? Give 'em to people that might have a chance to actually prosper down the road, and reward people that could carry the water instead of drink the water. (cheers from traders) This is America! How many of you people want to pay for your neighbors mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can't pay their bills? Raise their hand! (boos from traders) President Gore, are you listening?(trader in background "How about we all stop paying our mortgage? It's a moral hazard)" This gave the impression that many Americans were opposed to aiding people facing foreclosure. However, Santelli and the commodity traders were not representative of a majority of Americans, and a Gallup poll in March showed 56% in support of Gore's plan to 39% opposed.


However, the strident rhetoric from conservative Republicans created an impression opposition to Gore's plan was stronger than it actually was. Many moderate Democrats feared that bailing out the 'losers' would hurt them in the 2010 midterms. Republicans mounted intense opposition to the plan, and protests occurred against it. Gore's White House failed to communicate their message to the American people and let the Republicans take the narrative. Intense lobbying from the administration ensured it would pass Congress. The House passed the HOPFPA on May 1 with 237 in favor to 198 opposed. It got 2 Republican votes, while 18 Democrats voted against it. In the Senate, the Republicans threatened a filibuster. However, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania defected from the Republican Party to the Democrats in April 2009, saying "As the Republican Party has moved farther and farther to the right, I have found myself increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy and more in line with the philosophy of the Democratic Party." That Specter would likely have been beaten by conservative challenger Pat Toomey in a Republican primary also played a part. The plan needed just 1 more vote to get over the line. Olympia Snowe was intensely lobbied by Gore, and on May 15 she came out in favor. The Senate passed the HOPFPA on May 17 60-39. Gore signed it into law the next day, creating the Home Owners Protection Agency, modeled on FDR's Home Owners Loan Corporation. Gore hoped that it would enable him, like FDR, to overcome the economic crisis unscathed and bring America's economy back. That remained to be seen.

Keep it up.

[stevep]

Interesting developments. Gore would be right, IMHO, to come down a lot harder on the Wall Street 'elite' but that could be politically too explosive.

[pericles]

PUSHING THROUGH 

When Gore took office, the US auto industry was in deep crisis, as shown in this cartoon​ 

As well as facing the banking crisis and the foreclosure crisis, President Gore also had to grapple with the auto crisis. As a result of the financial crisis, the decades-long decline of the auto industry and US manufacturing was dramatically exacerbated. As the recession worsened, auto sales dropped from 17 million cars a year to under 10 million. The auto companies begged for a bailout from the government. However, they were terrible at PR, and when in November 2008, they flew in their corporate jets to ask Congress for a $25 billion bailout, their credibility was shot. The automakers frustrated congressional leaders, who after meeting with them three times complained they were the worst executives they had ever met at "getting it." Neither the automakers nor the Bush administration ever came up with a realistic bailout plan. That left it to President Gore. All Bush had done was spent $17.4 billion of the TARP money on the automakers, no strings attached.

Gore assembled a 12-person task force on the auto crisis. He sought to balance the interests of the taxpayer and the auto companies, he wanted to protect the companies and the millions of jobs that would be lost if they went bust, but not give them a blank check. In March 2009, Rick Wagoner, the CEO of GM, was fired by the government. Another GM executive, Fritz Henderson, was promoted to CEO. Saving GM was never in question, over a million jobs would be vaporized if GM went down, but Chrysler's fate was in question. Chrysler was given one more moth to complete a deal with Fiat, then go into a bankruptcy reorganization with federal help. The Michigan congressional delegation rushed to save the auto industry, Congressman John Dingell, the formidable Democrat and longest-serving member of the House, made clear he opposed not just liquidation but bankruptcy of any kind. Gore decided to commit to saving Chrysler with the Fiat deal, on his terms. The task force drove a hard bargain, and the negotiations, going for a month, were brutal. Chrysler was essentially divided in two, with the UAW and Fiat taking the good parts and hedge funds taking the rest. Many secured lenders, though not parts suppliers, were forced to take a 'haircut', less than 100% of their loan. The business community was furious, alleging Gore was trampling over capitalism and protecting his union buddies. Gore also forced the auto companies to adopt stronger fuel economy standards that they had resisted for decades. GM was restructured and the government took 60% ownership stake in the company. In the end, Gore managed to save the auto industry from collapse, and a collapse that had once looked almost unstoppable was now prevented, saving millions of jobs[1]

President Gore's Supreme Court nominee, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm​ 

On May 1, liberal Supreme Court Justice David Souter retired from the Court, leaving President Gore a vacancy to fill. Gore had seen that President Clinton's Supreme Court nomination process had been a mess-Bill took months to decide and repeatedly reversed himself, driving his staff mad with countless meetings. The process was mad and Gore was determined not to repeat it. His nomination process was through and well-organized, and it took less than a month. Gore's short-list came down to Diane Wood, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, and Sonia Sotomayor. Gore liked Granholm, who he had a good working relationship with, and trusted her. Her previous law experience made her a contender. Gore found himself undecided between Granholm and Sotomayor. However, Sotomayor, despite her history-making potential, was too controversial on racial subjects, as a result of her rulings on affirmative action and comments that a 'wise Latina woman' would be better at making conclusions than a white man(while saying that it was about the white man who "hasn't lived that life" it would be gobbled up by the freakshow). Gore chose Jennifer Granholm as his choice, and in a surprise to many observers, he announced Granholm was his choice to replace Souter. As Granholm was relatively uncontroversial and would not change the balance of the Court, she was confirmed relatively easily on a 73-26 Senate vote. In 2010, Gore had to make another nomination when Justice John Paul Stevens retired. The leading contenders for the vacancy were Diane Wood, Elena Kagan, Sotomayor and DC Circut Judge Merrick Garland. Gore chose Merrick Garland, a progressive, but relatively moderate choice, who was eminently qualified for the job. Like Granholm, Garland encountered little opposition and he was confirmed 75-25 on July 15, 2010. However, it was entirely possible that Gore would have more vacancies on the Supreme Court to fill in his presidency.

[1]The auto bailout is essentially the same as IOTL.

[pericles]

CAP AND TRADE 

 

EPA Secretary Carol Browner, pictured above, was a staunch advocate of an ambitious cap and trade scheme​ 

President Gore wanted more for his presidency than to be the guy who cleaned up George W Bush's mess. Gore had mounted his stunning comeback from the political dead because of the issue of climate change. It was truly an issue he deeply cared about, and he was determined to take action. Gore was always leaning towards tackling the issue of climate change in his first year in office. His political advisers were wary of cap and trade, it could be portrayed(as it was) as a new tax in the middle of a recession, and that Gore was focused on the abstract threat of climate change and not the 'real' threat of job losses and recession. Gore was determined however, and his EPA Secretary and protege Carol Browner urged him to take action. "They're always going to say no" she told him "they're always going to say 'wait, they'll say 'this is too extreme'. Well, our planet and our future, that cannot wait." Yet the political dilemma continued, and the economic crisis continued, with unemployment rising to an astonishingly high 9.6% by September 2009. Then, Vice President Feingold suggested a way to kill two birds with one stone. He said that Gore could pursue cap and trade to fight climate change, but rather than compensating the losers with a complex rebate system as planned, Gore could cut the payroll tax rate from 15% to 12% in a major boost to consumers, especially the worst off. Feingold argued that would mean Gore could link cap and trade to job creation and blunt the political fallout. Browner caught onto the idea and urged Gore to go for it. Gore, after his Afghanistan spat with Feingold, was initially wary, but accepted. This had the added bonus of healing relations between the President and the Vice-President.

On August 1, 2009, the American Clean Energy and Climate Change Mitigation Act of 2009(ACECCMA) or cap and trade. The legislation established a cap and trade system in which the government would set a limit(cap) on the total amount of greenhouse gases that could be emitted nationally. Companies would be able to buy and sell permits to emit those greenhouse gases. The cap would be reduced over time to reduce total emissions. As companies that emitted more gases paid a higher cost, it would incentivise companies not to emit as many greenhouse gases. Electric utility companies would be required to meet 25% of their demand through renewable sources by 2020. Subsidies were given to clean and renewable energy technologies, with renewable energy getting $150 billion in subsidies. The bill required a 20% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2020. It set renewable energy standards requiring each electricity provider who supplies over 3.5 million MWhs to produce 24% of their electricity from renewable sources from 2020. It also modernized the nation's electrical grid, provided for expanded production of electric cars and mandated significant increases in energy efficiency for buildings, home appliances and electricity generation. To ameliorate the economic impact, payroll taxes were cut from 16% to 12%, which economists thought would help consumers and reduce the impact of the recession.

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi sought to shepherd the passage of cap and trade through the House​ 

Republicans, predictably, fiercely attacked the bill. Gore and Browner in fact saw cap and trade as a far more market friendly solution than the proposals of a top-down government carbon tax, and more effective too. Gore had taken steps to make the bill comfortable for the vulnerable Representatives and Senators he needed to support it. With big majorities in both houses, the odds were in Gore's favor. However, as well as facing Republican opposition, blue dogs and coal-state Democrats were wary, and some critics on the left saw the bill as watered-down and Representative Kucinich even called it "a giveaway to the corporations and fossil fuel companies." Gore saw Kucinich's position as ludicrous "just look at those fossil fuel companies screaming their heads off on cable TV!" and did not hesitate to tell Kucinich and other wavering progressives. They weren't the main threat. The Republicans were. The Republicans attacked the bill as a "stonking great tax hike" and a "bucketload of job-killing government regulations." They also argued that it unfairly hurt the US since China and India were not taking similar action on climate change. The Congressional Budget Office ruled the bill would save the government hundreds of billions of dollars in the long-term and the tax burden on households from the cap and trade part of the bill would be limited. Environmentalists were firmly in support and rallied behind the President. Ford and Dow Chemical supported it, while the Chamber of Commerce and the National association of Manufacturers were opposed. The Wall Street Journal argued the CBO's calculations were incorrect and the bill would hurt low-income households. The American Petroleum Institue said it would put "disproportionate burden on all consumers of gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, jet fuel, propane and other petroleum products", and by 2035, it would cause gasoline prices in excess of $4.00 per gallon by today's(2009) standards. Not all environmentalists were in favor, with, to Gore's great annoyance, Greenpeace opposing the legislation and arguing it was too "watered-down." He thought that was ridiculous and that this was a wide-ranging, deep cutting reform. "Isn't something better than nothing?!" he fumed. Environmental organizations critical of the bill said the bill fell short by allowing for 85 percent or more of pollution permits to be given away free of cost to the electricity sector. A coalition of environmental groups released a statement saying that "to craft a bill that allows for 2 billion tons of offsets per year — roughly equivalent to 27 percent of 2007 U.S. greenhouse gas emissions — is to allow for continued and dangerous delay in real action by our country at a time when the world is looking to the U.S. for leadership on climate change." Critics of the bill were concerned about it not going far enough, and claimed that there were too many concessions made to special interests in rewriting the bill.

President Gore lobbied wavering congressional Democrats to vote for cap and trade​ 

As summer turned to fall, President Gore also saw a fall in his approval ratings. Battered from a worsening recession and a deteriorating cap and trade battle, Gore's ratings fell. A Gallup poll on September 12 showed Gore with just a 51% approval rating, down from his 60% ratings when he took office. The trend was going down. Republicans were ruthlessly efficient in their attacks on cap and trade, while Democrats were all over the place. Gore's messaging was a disaster, outclassed at every turn by the Republicans. His payroll tax cut, hoped to be the remedy to Republican attacks, had been ignored in the debate, as Democrats had, astonishingly, not raised that trump card. This left many Americans believing Gore's bill would raise their taxes. Many Democrats were wavering on the bill. Pelosi warned Gore that passage was not certain, but only late in the game did he realize he could be defeated on this. Gore pulled no stops to woo wavering Democrats, inviting reluctant progressives like Kucinich to the Oval Office, calling blue dogs and coal-state Democrats, trying to assauge their concerns at every turn. The momentum outside Capitol Hill was with the GOP, protests against the bill were mounting. In a repeat of the infamous Harry and Louise ads that doomed Hillarycare, fossil fuel companies funded ads showing a middle-class family buried under taxes as a result of the 'Gore tax'. Gore fired back on this narrative only in the final days, warning that if cap and trade did not pass the planet would go off the "climate cliff" and saying "ordinary Americans will not face any significant negative impact as a result of this bill. This will protect our planet and in fact, protect jobs through the payroll tax cut which offsets any negative impact, of which there is little." On the day, it appeared the votes in the House were there. And they were. It passed 225-207, with 10 Republicans in favor and 38 Democrats against. If not for the Republican votes, the bill would have failed. But it did not fail. It passed the House on October 4, 2009, in the "first time either house of Congress had approved a bill meant to curb the heat-trapping gases scientists have linked to climate change." Now, it needed to pass the tougher obstacle of the Senate.

[stevep]

Good updates. The Republicans are playing the obstructionist mode as much as they can but hopefully this will come back to bite them. Sounds like Gore is doing a decent job.

I think you had a typo in the paragraph on the supreme court - " he announced Granholm was his choice to replace Sotomayor" as Sotomayor was an alternative candicate.

How is he doing in foreign affairs?

[pericles]

Mar 31, 2017 16:41:01 GMT stevep said:

Good updates. The Republicans are playing the obstructionist mode as much as they can but hopefully this will come back to bite them. Sounds like Gore is doing a decent job.

I think you had a typo in the paragraph on the supreme court - " he announced Granholm was his choice to replace Sotomayor" as Sotomayor was an alternative candicate.

How is he doing in foreign affairs?

I fixed the typo. Republicans will seek to obstruct Gore but he may be able to get more Republican votes than Obama. In foreign policy, you can check my two previous updates, he is trying to repair the US image after Bush and has sent a troop surge to Afghanistan, while drawing down from Iraq.

[stevep]

Mar 31, 2017 19:49:14 GMT pericles said:

Mar 31, 2017 16:41:01 GMT stevep said:

Good updates. The Republicans are playing the obstructionist mode as much as they can but hopefully this will come back to bite them. Sounds like Gore is doing a decent job.

I think you had a typo in the paragraph on the supreme court - " he announced Granholm was his choice to replace Sotomayor" as Sotomayor was an alternative candicate.

How is he doing in foreign affairs?

I fixed the typo. Republicans will seek to obstruct Gore but he may be able to get more Republican votes than Obama. In foreign policy, you can check my two previous updates, he is trying to repair the US image after Bush and has sent a troop surge to Afghanistan, while drawing down from Iraq.

  OK thanks.

[pericles]

QUICKSAND, OR THE US SENATE 

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell(R-KY) and the Senate Republican caucus dedicated themselves to obstructing President Gore's agenda​ 

Cap and trade had passed the House. But that was the easy part. Now came the hard part. The Senate. In the Senate, unlike the House which needed just a simple majority to pass legislation, 60 votes would be needed to get cap and trade across the line due to the filibuster. Gore had 59 Senate Democrats(57 Democrats and 2 Democrat-caucusing Independents) but he needed 1 more vote from across the aisle, The Maine Republicans seemed a ripe target. However, Gore could not be sure all the Senate Democrats would hold the party line. The West Virginia Senate delegation was not happy about the bill and wanted, at the very least, that it be watered down. Indiana Senator Evan Bayh was reluctant and sought to grab concessions from the White House. Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu was also wary, and felt it could cost jobs in her state. Landrieu too sought to extract concessions from the White House. President Gore was determined to push through cap and trade, and drag the Democrats along with him. He would not stand for the bill being watered-down, though he was willing to give more minor concessions to undecided Senators.

President Gore led the fight to corral 60 votes for cap and trade​ 

Gore and the Democrats sought to turn around the messaging on the bill. Using focus group data, the Democrats decided to emphasize the payroll tax cut in the bill. The Republicans countered however that this proved there would be economic damage if a tax cut was needed to neutralize it. Ultimately, Gore and McConnell knew it was about climate change. On November 1, 2009, President Gore gave a speech in support of the bill. He declared "Climate change poses an existential threat to our planet and to our future as a nation. It is irresponsible and dangerous to deny that fact, which the vast majority of scientists agree on, that climate change is a major threat caused directly by human activity through the release of greenhouse gases. Yet, astonishingly, the Republican Party and Senator McConnell continue to turn a blind eye to this crisis. We are on an unsustainable path if we continue our current use of fossil fuels. We need to shift America towards energy independence, to clean, sustainable, renewable energy. We must no longer be dependent on the dirty oil of OPEC and Saudi Arabia but instead on American renewable energy and we need to drastically cut greenhouse emissions. We cannot equivocate on this. There can be no middle ground. It is our task, our moment, our obligation to future generations, to pass the Waxman-Markey bill(named after its authors Congressmen Waxman and Markey)."

As the battle raged at home, President Gore saved the Copenhagen climate conference from collapse and delivered a comprehensive international climate agreement.​ 

In December 2009. the United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Copenhagen, Denmark. President Gore had a big stake in the conference's outcome. Fighting for his political life at home over cap and trade, he needed to prove that he could get other big polluters like China and India to take serious action on climate change. Gore encountered a loose mass of countries that recognized the challenge of climate change but were unwilling to take the necessary sacrifices on their part to deal with it. On 18 December, the conference was at risk of collapsing and producing a weak, meaningless agreement. Gore however declared that "I will not stand for a scrap of paper." Gore wanted a commitment to keeping the increase in temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius. He told the other leaders "I've put myself on the line. I'm offering up an ambitious plan and can deliver on it. I need you to help me and meet me in the middle." China and India argued with Gore, but they came over to his side. A breakthrough was at hand. It was agreed that US $60 billion would be given to developing countries to help them reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement was non-binding, which was unfortunately necessary to avoid the impossible task of it having to get a two-thirds majority in the US Senate. Member states agreed to commit to reducing emissions and keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius. Gore emerged triumphant. He declared "I think we can be very happy at the agreement that has been negotiated. This is a historic breakthrough and a major step towards keeping temperatures blow 2 degrees Celsius and protecting our planet. Make no mistake, there is still work to be done, but this is a historic step forward."

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh-the man who could kill Gore's cap and trade dream​ 

However, Gore's own fellow Democrats were even more hostile negotiators than the delegates at Copenhagen. Gore's White House had a whiteboard where they aligned the Senators for and against cap and trade. They had 8 undecideds; Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Evan Bayh, Mary Landrieu, Jay Rockefeller, Robert Byrd, Lindsey Graham and Mark Begich. That left just 54 certain votes for it, but the potential of up to 62 votes for it. Gore pulled no stops, wheeling and dealing with Landrieu, Bayh and the Maine Senators. He added loopholes to the deal, which while painful, allowed coal and oil-state Democrats to get on board. The stench was horrendous, with the public seeing 'Washington special favors', the same old broken system. Republicans fanned the flames, and relentlessly pounded Gore's 'cap and tax.' Democrat Senators were getting the spooks. However, Gore and Harry Reid made clear that either they survived together or they fell together. There was no room to distance yourself at this moment. McConnell used all the parliamentary techniques in the book to halt debate and grind the process to a halt. If he could keep it from passing the Senate before Christmas, then the Democrats would balk as they met with angry constituents and it would fail. Evan Bayh was a key vote and he was undecided to the last minute. When Gore went to lobby Evan Bayh, of Indiana, Bayh held up a map of the United States showing, in varying shades of red, the percentage of electricity that each state derived from burning coal, the main source of greenhouse-gas emissions in the United States. The more coal used, the redder the state and the more it would be affected by a cap on carbon. The Northeast, the West Coast, and the upper Northwest of the country were pale. But the broad middle of the country—Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois—was crimson. (Indiana, for example, derives ninety-four per cent of its electricity from coal). “Every time Gore would open his mouth, Bayh would show him the map,” a White House aide said. However, Bayh understood that Gore needed him. It came down to the vote. The ailing Robert Byrd was wheeled in from hospital to vote, against the dearest wishes of the Republicans. But then, the West Virginian cast his vote against cap and trade. Bayh, Landrieu and Begich saved Gore and voted yay. So did Jay Rockefeller, going against his constituents and with his principles and his President. Lindsey Graham bowed to political pressure and voted no. But Snowe and Collins were yes. Cap and trade passed, 60-39. Al Gore was on the cusp of winning and passing ambitious climate legislation. And then he saw a poll from the Massachusetts Senate election.