Italy 1936 /An Empire Reborn

[lordroel]

May 1, 2021 12:27:32 GMT stevep said:

  lordroel ,

   Not really been following this but that last point is very odd!!  Canada has been largely independent since 1867 and had most of remaining British influence removed after the 1931 Statue of Westminster.

  Steve

That is strange, but i cannot ask the original author as he has not been seen in a year, but if i see him i will ask if this was a mistake ore a early butterfly. 

[simon darkshade]

I haven't really followed any of this beyond a cursory examination a few years ago, as it well and truly falls short in a number of areas. The 1982 reference though would seem to be an attempt to shoehorn the historical 'patriation' of the Canadian constitution that occurred in '82 under the Canada Act and the Constitution Act under Trudeau into an extremely different world. That it is also expressed rather clumsily would suggest that it is included moreso as padding than an essential part of the timeline.

For me, this whole endeavour falls down at the first entry, which has the Italian military completing a far greater modernisation than contemplated in @ in 18 months:

"May 1939: In conjunction with the German training previously received and lessons learned in Spain the Comando Supremo has ordered a restructuring of the Italian military by implementing a new doctrine of warfare. Over the course of 1939 Italy will retrain its troops for the use of Blitzkrieg style warfare.

Army supply depots are established in northern Italy along the German Italian border to keep trade covertly flowing with Germany freely even if Italy has to declare a trade embargo against the Reich.

November 1940: The Italian military reforms are largely completed their effectiveness is still unknown but they will soon be tested in Yugoslavia. An invasion date is set for early April."

- Apparently Italian tank production can rise simply on the basis of German armoured success in Poland 3 months earlier. Any sense of resources, industrial plant, limitations in armoured vehicle production, design bottlenecks, money, expanding facilities/building new plants and all of the historical factors that constrained Italy go out the window. This fails the test of realism and viability.
- With a PoD of July 1936, special/magic German engineers manage to build functioning synthetic oil plants between December '36 and July '37

Without even heading beyond the first few years, some of the frequent problems of "buff (insert 2nd/3rd rank power) timelines":
- Industrial rushing
- Real historical figures immediately knowing the right thing to do and making all the right decisions, not just being shrewder in international power politics
- Military developments rush forward with no obstacles
- Nothing substantive changes outside of the borders of Italy for the first 5 years
- Resource production jumps from theoretical to substantial in the twinkling of an eye
- Cursory treatment of other fronts

When something starts out with those features, it is difficult to salvage it. There isn't a great deal of extended prose in this format, so interesting depth can't quite contribute.

Italy can be improved and come out of a world war in a much better position, maintaining equivalence with France as a European great power, but simply doesn't have the industrial base, population or GDP to reach any further, even with the changes made here.

I know it is the production of someone else on another forum, but everything from 1936-1940 onwards is the fruit of that original poisoned tree.

[stevep]

May 2, 2021 11:45:13 GMT simon darkshade said:

I haven't really followed any of this beyond a cursory examination a few years ago, as it well and truly falls short in a number of areas. The 1982 reference though would seem to be an attempt to shoehorn the historical 'patriation' of the Canadian constitution that occurred in '82 under the Canada Act and the Constitution Act under Trudeau into an extremely different world. That it is also expressed rather clumsily would suggest that it is included moreso as padding than an essential part of the timeline.

For me, this whole endeavour falls down at the first entry, which has the Italian military completing a far greater modernisation than contemplated in @ in 18 months:

"May 1939: In conjunction with the German training previously received and lessons learned in Spain the Comando Supremo has ordered a restructuring of the Italian military by implementing a new doctrine of warfare. Over the course of 1939 Italy will retrain its troops for the use of Blitzkrieg style warfare.

Army supply depots are established in northern Italy along the German Italian border to keep trade covertly flowing with Germany freely even if Italy has to declare a trade embargo against the Reich.

November 1940: The Italian military reforms are largely completed their effectiveness is still unknown but they will soon be tested in Yugoslavia. An invasion date is set for early April."

- Apparently Italian tank production can rise simply on the basis of German armoured success in Poland 3 months earlier. Any sense of resources, industrial plant, limitations in armoured vehicle production, design bottlenecks, money, expanding facilities/building new plants and all of the historical factors that constrained Italy go out the window. This fails the test of realism and viability.
- With a PoD of July 1936, special/magic German engineers manage to build functioning synthetic oil plants between December '36 and July '37

Without even heading beyond the first few years, some of the frequent problems of "buff (insert 2nd/3rd rank power) timelines":
- Industrial rushing
- Real historical figures immediately knowing the right thing to do and making all the right decisions, not just being shrewder in international power politics
- Military developments rush forward with no obstacles
- Nothing substantive changes outside of the borders of Italy for the first 5 years
- Resource production jumps from theoretical to substantial in the twinkling of an eye
- Cursory treatment of other fronts

When something starts out with those features, it is difficult to salvage it. There isn't a great deal of extended prose in this format, so interesting depth can't quite contribute.

Italy can be improved and come out of a world war in a much better position, maintaining equivalence with France as a European great power, but simply doesn't have the industrial base, population or GDP to reach any further, even with the changes made here.

I know it is the production of someone else on another forum, but everything from 1936-1940 onwards is the fruit of that original poisoned tree.

  Well from what I remember from reading a while back it then has Italy overrunning large areas of the Balkans and elsewhere and being met with pretty much open arms.  As you say very much a wank.  I hadn't paid too much attention but the continuation of a grossly inflated Italian empire along with a simple copying of the 1982 invasion date and circumstances for the Falkland's attack makes it sound distinctly superficial.

[lordroel]

Chapter LIV (May 30th 1982 to June 16th 1982

May 30th 1982

LONDON, GIBRALTAR. THEY’RE ALMOST TO US. WE NEED INSTRUCTIONS TO PROCEED.

GIBRALTAR, LONDON. ROGER THAT. ORDERS JUST RECEIVED FROM PM’S OFFICE. YOU ARE TO PROCEED AS FOLLOWS...

ASSESS SITUATION: IF POSSIBLE INTERCEPT ITALIAN FORCE. IF NOT DEEMED POSSIBLE OBSERVE AND REPORT MOVEMENTS.

The RAF and RN commanders of Gibraltar both breathe a collective sigh of relief. There was no way for them to prevent the Italians from passing through and order their forces to stand down and let the fleet pass through while only launching a reconnaissance plane to follow them.

The Italian fleet’s orders are intentionally vague. Their instructions are simply to break out into the Atlantic and head for the North Sea to await further orders. Elements in the Comando Supremo initially wanted the fleet to sail for the Carribean and assist the Italian squadron there, but those initial proposes were rejected as being considered too risky as it might antagonize the Americans.

June 1st 1982

News on both sides of the Atlantic prove to be grim. In the Falklands the British offensive has been grounded to a halt by stubborn Argentine resistance and the lack of adequate air support numbers.
Meanwhile behind the scenes the Lira Block seems to be cracking. Reports from Freda and Gritti show that there is no support for war over the Falklands and that most of the members of the Block will vote against war and declare neutrality.

June 3rd 1982

In a bid to aid in the destabilizing of the UK, the OVRA approves massive sales to the IRA. Allowing the organization to purchase heavy artillery and heavier anti air weapons.

In order to create plausible deniability these transfers will be run through shell companies operating out of Pakistan.

*Note: The actual results of these sales will take a long time to be seen.*

June 5th 1982

While attempting to rescue injured British soldiers a helicopter flown by Prince Andrew is shot down by Argentine AA. A rescue mission is immediately launched to recover the Prince but neither he nor his body is found at the crash site. He is officially declared Missing in Action by the military though this news is kept secret from the general public to not provoke an outburst against the war.

A joint British and French fleet form in the Atlantic Ocean in an attempt to pursue the Mussolini and her fleet. For the past several days the Italian fleet had been tracked by long distance reconnaissance planes and satellites but adverse weather allowed the fleet to slip away somewhere in the North Atlantic.

June 7th 1982

In the early morning hours an Argentine submarine is able to pierce through the picket surrounding the British aircraft carrier Hermes. With the Hermes firmly in sight the submarine launches a devastating volley of torpedoes causing immense damage to the ship.

The Argentine sub attempting to slip away stealthily is quickly sunk by British destroyers rushing in to come to the aid of the faltering carrier.

Heavy flooding wracks Britain’s only remaining carrier in the region as damage control teams struggle to keep the ship afloat. After two hours of trying and failing to contain the flooding the ship’s captain is forced to give the order to abandon ship.

June 8th 1982

The first reports of the sinking of the Hermes become public. Initial outcry by both government and media sources state that it was sunk by an Italian submarine operating in the region.
Italian authorities deny the allegation stating that no Italian subs were operating in the area. The Argentine military claims responsibility for the attacks but most international sources refuse to believe that an outdated submarine would be able to sneak past the British destroyer screen.

The British parliament is in an uproar with many of its members demanding war. The military is not so certain that Britain, insisting that with the loss of the Hermes they do not have the power to conduct a two front war and will need to abandon the Falklands in order to counter Italian aggression, there is also the belief that it is quite possible that an Argentine sub was responsible for the attack. Thatcher tows a dangerous line of no pushing for any action until more information is obtained.

June 9th 1082

The Argentine government releases images of Prince Andrew held in captivity confirming that he is alive and being held as a POW in Buenos Aires.

For the British Crown and government this dramatically changes the nature of things. Even as the British public clamors for retaliation, members of the government suggest sending out feelers to the Argentines to discuss terms on the return of the Prince.

British troops enter into Stanley as street to street fighting commences against the Argentine defenders. Without British air support the two sides are relatively evenly matched, though the better trained and equipped British are able to press their advantage against the largely conscripted defenders.

In Italian East Africa, Italian border guards exchange fire with their British counterparts in a minor skirmish. Though no one is killed on either side, tensions increase as regional commanders order more troops to the border.

At the insistence of Medici, Freda meets with British and American ambassadors in Geneva to discuss a de-escalation of the conflict. Initial talks seem positive with the Americans expressing a strong need to end the conflict so as not to see the Soviets benefit from a destructive war in western Europe.

June 10th 1982

As fighting continues in Stanley Medici speaks with the Argentine Junta declaring “enough is enough.” The Junta has proven their point and made a symbolic victory against the British but a continued war will only lead to the collapse of both Argentina and the NRE. Medici calls for a “peace with honor.”

June 11th 1982

The Argentinean ambassador to Switzerland joins in the talks between Italy, the UK and the US in Geneva. Initial talks are proving fruitful but nothing solid as of yet. In an unprecedented move to reduce tensions Medici allows Freda to release the location of the Italian subs operating in the Southern Atlantic to show that the NRE was not responsible for the sinking of the Hermes.

Street to street fighting rages on as most of Stanley and the Falklands islands are not firmly in British hands.

June 12th 1982

After all night talks in Geneva plans for a cease fire are agreed upon by the nations. While far from settling the dispute between the nations all fighting shall end immediately.

The Argentine Junta using the words of Medici declare it to be a “peace with honor”. The Argentine military has proven that it could stand up to the might of the British and that now they were in a position to peacefully negotiate a solution in regards to the islands.

As part of the de-escalation the Italian Carribean Squadron returns to port in Cuba. The remainder of the Italian Navy operating in the North Atlantic will continues its patrol as the rest of talks proceed for full military withdrawal in regards to the war.

June 14th 1982

An uneasy truce forms in and around Stanley with British and Argentine troops establishing a DMZ while they await further orders.

British divers manage to locate the wreck of the Argentine sub responsible for the sinking of the Hermes confirming that it was not an Italian operation.

June 16th 1982

The world breathes a collective sigh of relief as ambassadors from the NRE, Argentina, the UK, and the USA meet in Switzerland to discuss official terms in order to end the conflict.

[simon darkshade]

Remarkable how closely dates adhere to those of reality 45+ years after the PoD.

Similarly impressive that an Argy coastal submarine is fast and capable enough to find a carrier operating at sea.

Not all Alternate History is worth saving from the sands of time. This is one better left to the ether, not because the focus nation is not a free one or Britain or anything like that, but because it showcases the worst parts of the genre, as said last year.

[lordroel]

Feb 4, 2022 15:58:41 GMT simon darkshade said:

Remarkable how closely dates adhere to those of reality 45+ years after the PoD.

Similarly impressive that an Argy coastal submarine is fast and capable enough to find a carrier operating at sea.

Not all Alternate History is worth saving from the sands of time. This is one better left to the ether, not because the focus nation is not a free one or Britain or anything like that, but because it showcases the worst parts of the genre, as said last year.

Well not to worry, this is the last update concerning this TL as the author has not posted in 2 years.