lordbyron
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Post by lordbyron on Feb 19, 2018 18:35:52 GMT
That withdrawal is going to have consequences for Honduras and El Salvador.
Somoza is gambling everything on hoping the US will intervene; it won't go well, methinks...
Waiting for more, of course...
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 19, 2018 20:16:22 GMT
That withdrawal is going to have consequences for Honduras and El Salvador. Somoza is gambling everything on hoping the US will intervene; it won't go well, methinks... Waiting for more, of course... Oh, yes, it really will. More below. More every day (well... most) for the foreseeable future. Gotta catch up to where I was before: Colorado here we come. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 19, 2018 20:17:08 GMT
(31)
December 1979:
When the news came from Nicaragua that there was a Cuban soldier in captivity, there was a non-reaction in the White House. Ford still didn’t have a new CIA director and nor did he have a replacement for Kissinger either. What was happening in the Middle East was what the president was focused upon. That had more importance at the moment and Nicaragua was not ignored, just not given the attention it deserved. It was the same with Guatemala too. This was in addition to Cuban activities elsewhere in the Caribbean. In later years, the mistake would be seen for what it really was yet at the end of 1979, the Middle East took all prominence.
Pakistan’s president – General Zia-ul-Haq; a man who it was alleged had murdered his democratically-elected predecessor – impressed upon Washington the need for assistance when there was a Soviet menace to his country, a country which was meant to be an ally of the United States. Zia didn’t go about the whole thing in the right way. His pleas for aid were full of exaggeration of the threat to his country. Soviet intimidation had gravely concerned him especially since they continued to make use of his own fears about India too. Zia didn’t know he was being played like he was yet those in the KGB with that scheme didn’t foresee just how strongly he would react and run to the Americans like he did. All the Soviet Union wanted was for Pakistan to cut off aid to the rebels. When it was realised how far Zia was going, asking for American troops, the KGB corrected what they saw as their own mistake with the worry that maybe he would be paid attention to in Washington. They backed off a little. Zia kept on crying wolf but there was no wolf that the United States could see about to make an attack. Pakistan’s leader discredited himself and everyone in Washington just wanting him and his emissaries to shut up. It was an ongoing and confusing situation but regardless of what was said, Pakistan wasn’t about to be invaded. The Soviets had enough on their hands inside Afghanistan and Iran while the Indians wouldn’t be party to such a thing either no matter how many times Zia said they would.
Ford and his advisers watched and listened to the news which came out of the two countries where the Soviets had flooded troops into. There were plenty of sources of intelligence though the veracity of some of them would later be questioned. At the time, the Ford Administration wasn’t aware just how much the Soviets were making use of their favoured game – maskirovka – to cover up their activities. The deception was being done not just to keep the Americans unawares but also to shut down opposition inside Afghanistan and Iran by flooding them with disinformation: United States intelligence sources were part of this in different ways. The way that it was explained to the president was that the Soviets had won everywhere and crushed all organised opposition to them. The lies over the apparent invitation where the Soviet Union was assisting fraternal allies were recognised as lies by most in Washington though not everyone, that was more true with Afghanistan more than Iran. All of that aside, what the Soviets had done was recognised as a clear act of international aggression even if they had made the effort to get a fig leaf of so-called legitimacy. The question became what to do about it. From the moment the Soviets started moving their troops, back last month, any form of outright military action on the part of the United States was ruled out at the highest level. There were those who didn’t agree, but that was the way it was. Ford wasn’t about to take his country to war with the Soviet Union over such countries as Afghanistan and revolutionary Iran. Other measures were considered instead: those being diplomatic and economic. All the while, fighting continued in the Middle East. It was a different kind of fighting than expected by anyone from the outside. Afghan resistance had swung easily to fighting the Soviets now instead of their government while in Iran, after false starts, domestic resistance got going there too.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 19, 2018 20:22:43 GMT
(31)December 1979: When the news came from Nicaragua that there was a Cuban soldier in captivity, there was a non-reaction in the White House. Ford still didn’t have a new CIA director and nor did he have a replacement for Kissinger either. What was happening in the Middle East was what the president was focused upon. That had more importance at the moment and Nicaragua was not ignored, just not given the attention it deserved. It was the same with Guatemala too. This was in addition to Cuban activities elsewhere in the Caribbean. In later years, the mistake would be seen for what it really was yet at the end of 1979, the Middle East took all prominence. Pakistan’s president – General Zia-ul-Haq; a man who it was alleged had murdered his democratically-elected predecessor – impressed upon Washington the need for assistance when there was a Soviet menace to his country, a country which was meant to be an ally of the United States. Zia didn’t go about the whole thing in the right way. His pleas for aid were full of exaggeration of the threat to his country. Soviet intimidation had gravely concerned him especially since they continued to make use of his own fears about India too. Zia didn’t know he was being played like he was yet those in the KGB with that scheme didn’t foresee just how strongly he would react and run to the Americans like he did. All the Soviet Union wanted was for Pakistan to cut off aid to the rebels. When it was realised how far Zia was going, asking for American troops, the KGB corrected what they saw as their own mistake with the worry that maybe he would be paid attention to in Washington. They backed off a little. Zia kept on crying wolf but there was no wolf that the United States could see about to make an attack. Pakistan’s leader discredited himself and everyone in Washington just wanting him and his emissaries to shut up. It was an ongoing and confusing situation but regardless of what was said, Pakistan wasn’t about to be invaded. The Soviets had enough on their hands inside Afghanistan and Iran while the Indians wouldn’t be party to such a thing either no matter how many times Zia said they would. Ford and his advisers watched and listened to the news which came out of the two countries where the Soviets had flooded troops into. There were plenty of sources of intelligence though the veracity of some of them would later be questioned. At the time, the Ford Administration wasn’t aware just how much the Soviets were making use of their favoured game – maskirovka – to cover up their activities. The deception was being done not just to keep the Americans unawares but also to shut down opposition inside Afghanistan and Iran by flooding them with disinformation: United States intelligence sources were part of this in different ways. The way that it was explained to the president was that the Soviets had won everywhere and crushed all organised opposition to them. The lies over the apparent invitation where the Soviet Union was assisting fraternal allies were recognised as lies by most in Washington though not everyone, that was more true with Afghanistan more than Iran. All of that aside, what the Soviets had done was recognised as a clear act of international aggression even if they had made the effort to get a fig leaf of so-called legitimacy. The question became what to do about it. From the moment the Soviets started moving their troops, back last month, any form of outright military action on the part of the United States was ruled out at the highest level. There were those who didn’t agree, but that was the way it was. Ford wasn’t about to take his country to war with the Soviet Union over such countries as Afghanistan and revolutionary Iran. Other measures were considered instead: those being diplomatic and economic. All the while, fighting continued in the Middle East. It was a different kind of fighting than expected by anyone from the outside. Afghan resistance had swung easily to fighting the Soviets now instead of their government while in Iran, after false starts, domestic resistance got going there too. And how many updates might that be. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 19, 2018 20:24:19 GMT
At least another hundred. At least. My planning is in sketch form. I have notes from (the next update) at the start of 1980 into 1985. The big war starts in late 1984.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 19, 2018 20:25:36 GMT
At least another hundred. At least. My planning is in sketch form. I have notes from (the next update) at the start of 1980 into 1985. The big war starts in late 1984. Wow, is the current version you post here the same as the one you had posted on AH.com. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 19, 2018 20:28:33 GMT
The story is the same. Many details are the same. I've changed things already and will change more.
The detail I put into the presidential race in 1980 will be cut back - I will still have some - and I want to expand elsewhere such as in Western Europe to break apart NATO in a plausible/possible/not-too-ASB form.
So many changes. Plus with how the big war went, I went wrong. The fighting was full of holes!
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 19, 2018 20:31:31 GMT
The story is the same. Many details are the same. I've changed things already and will change more. The detail I put into the presidential race in 1980 will be cut back - I will still have some - and I want to expand elsewhere such as in Western Europe to break apart NATO in a plausible/possible/not-too-ASB form. So many changes. Plus with how the big war went, I went wrong. The fighting was full of holes! Well so far you are doing good, so keep up the updates. |
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Post by lukedalton on Feb 20, 2018 9:15:29 GMT
The story is the same. Many details are the same. I've changed things already and will change more. The detail I put into the presidential race in 1980 will be cut back - I will still have some - and I want to expand elsewhere such as in Western Europe to break apart NATO in a plausible/possible/not-too-ASB form. So many changes. Plus with how the big war went, I went wrong. The fighting was full of holes! Well, maybe a way it's that Operation 'Stay Behind' and it's link to extreme right wing terrorism it's discovered...it will create a lot of diplomatic nightmare; seem the only think that can be used by the URSS to create a big wedge between the USA and Europe. Maybe if also put in the mix a proto-trumpian/old style isolationist 'Buchanan style' high ranking american politician that in the middle of the intra-NATO diplomatic crisis create even more problem things will go more smooth (from a narrative pow) |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 20, 2018 11:14:59 GMT
The story is the same. Many details are the same. I've changed things already and will change more. The detail I put into the presidential race in 1980 will be cut back - I will still have some - and I want to expand elsewhere such as in Western Europe to break apart NATO in a plausible/possible/not-too-ASB form. So many changes. Plus with how the big war went, I went wrong. The fighting was full of holes! Well, maybe a way it's that Operation 'Stay Behind' and it's link to extreme right wing terrorism it's discovered...it will create a lot of diplomatic nightmare; seem the only think that can be used by the URSS to create a big wedge between the USA and Europe. Maybe if also put in the mix a proto-trumpian/old style isolationist 'Buchanan style' high ranking american politician that in the middle of the intra-NATO diplomatic crisis create even more problem things will go more smooth (from a narrative pow) NATO is fundamentally a strong organisation, especially back in the 80s. I have ideas with Spain and Greece and later West German developments. I need something else like you suggest too. Moreover, the story doesn't require bringing NATO down just having it fade into irreverence at the key moment. Trans-Atlantic distrust will have to play into that. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 20, 2018 14:28:32 GMT
Chapter Three – The End of Détente
(32)
January 1980:
Ford announced that the United States would be talking ‘stern measures’ against the Soviet Union due to their ‘illegal aggression’ in Afghanistan and Iran. Those actions included the scaling back of many diplomatic ties away from the direct ambassadorial-embassy level and also the continued support of both UN and Islamic Conference condemnation of Moscow’s actions. Economically, there would be restrictions placed by Washington in certain areas. Ford came out strongly against the Soviet gas pipeline connection Siberian gas fields with Western Europe that Moscow was trying to get West Germany to fund: everything possible that could be done to stop that, would be done. In addition, there would too be a grain embargo against the Soviet Union. American domestic suppliers wouldn’t be able to sell grain to the Soviets away from the bi-lateral US-Soviet agreement of 1975 that was unaffected by this. On this issue, like with the gas pipeline, there had been extensive lobbying done within Washington with the grain pressure coming from the Farm Bureau who were quite influential and regarded this as quite the coup: they could now sell that grain across the country at a higher price and not abroad at a low rate previously ‘encouraged’ by the US Government. They didn’t see that mistake coming.
There were other measures that Ford didn’t take though. He had been lobbied to announce an Olympics Boycott for the upcoming Summer Games in Moscow but chose not to do so at the moment. Renouncing the SALT II treaty – something he was proud to have signed – wasn’t on the table either. That really didn’t matter though: it was already dead before Afghanistan and Iran were invaded. Something that the president did do though was to get agreement from NATO partners in Western Europe to deploy GLCM missiles to several countries. NATO leaders there had been long pushing for this and Ford had taken flak at home for delaying that while he conducted arms talks with the Soviets. Now, those cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads could go across the North Atlantic. It was going to take some years to get them in-place and there was also domestic opposition ready to ramp up in Western Europe in response, but the decision was made. Dole and Rumsfeld were behind this with the vice president (according to a later leak to the media) pushed into this by the secretary of defence who wanted this as a guarantee of his support for Dole’s presidential bid: Rumsfeld also intended to stay on at the Pentagon too, so said the leaks… if they were true that was.
As to the race for the White House, the campaigns by various candidates kicked into high gear in January when the first official contest took place in the Mid-West. The Iowa Caucuses were now becoming a tradition as the official start of presidential elections; they would be followed the next month in New Hampshire with a standard primary competition there. The point of caucuses and primaries was for each of the political parties to select their candidates later in the year to go into the election after campaigning nationwide (most of the country anyway) in the preceding months. 1976 had shown how vital it was to start early, start with Iowa, for candidates rather than trying to jump into the race late. Delegates for conventions needed to be won plus there was also an extraordinary amount of media attention. Iowa and New Hampshire were where the action was and where the candidates came to.
The race to the White House was open with Ford unable to run again. For the Republicans, three major candidates emerged and made strong campaigns in Iowa. There were others but none had the attention that the leading trio did. Vice President Bob Dole ran against US Senate minority leader Senator Howard Baker and also the former governor of California in Ronald Reagan. This was Reagan’s third attempt after failures in ’68 and ’76. Baker was ready to step aside from his Senate leadership duties to fully focus on his presidential bid though that depended upon how well he did in the opening races; some rumours said that his heart wasn’t truly in this race. As to Dole… Dole wanted the presidency as much as Reagan did and was determined to have it. The Democrats had minor candidates and four main ones. After Carter’s defeat in ’76, there were no Southern Democrats at the top table. Senator Walter Mondale who had run with Carter last time around was running and so too were other veterans of the ’76 race in the form of Governor Jerry Brown (this time entering early) and Senator Henry ‘Scoop’ Jackson. And then there was Senator Ted Kennedy too… hush now, let’s not mention CHAPPAQUIDDICK! With Brown, Jackson and Mondale in the race, many Democrats were looking at an ‘Anyone But Kennedy’ candidate but the party had yet to decide upon which one they liked. In Iowa, that choice wasn’t that of the party establishment though.
Reagan won the Republican contest with Dole finishing far behind and Baker alarmingly close to him as far as the vice president was concerned. As to the Democratic race, it appeared that Chappaquiddick meant little here in Iowa: Kennedy won (just though) with Brown behind him then Mondale in third while Jackson trailed far back. To New Hampshire the candidates went with some elated, others depressed and a few confident that the voters in the North-East would be more open to them.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Feb 20, 2018 14:59:20 GMT
Chapter Three – The End of Détente(32)Reagan won the Republican contest with Dole finishing far behind and Baker alarmingly close to him as far as the vice president was concerned. As to the Democratic race, it appeared that Chappaquiddick meant little here in Iowa: Kennedy won (just though) with Brown behind him then Mondale in third while Jackson trailed far back. To New Hampshire the candidates went with some elated, others depressed and a few confident that the voters in the North-East would be more open to them. If Reagan wins, the Soviet Union will have to face a much stronger president. |
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Post by lukedalton on Feb 20, 2018 16:30:04 GMT
Well, maybe a way it's that Operation 'Stay Behind' and it's link to extreme right wing terrorism it's discovered...it will create a lot of diplomatic nightmare; seem the only think that can be used by the URSS to create a big wedge between the USA and Europe. Maybe if also put in the mix a proto-trumpian/old style isolationist 'Buchanan style' high ranking american politician that in the middle of the intra-NATO diplomatic crisis create even more problem things will go more smooth (from a narrative pow) NATO is fundamentally a strong organisation, especially back in the 80s. I have ideas with Spain and Greece and later West German developments. I need something else like you suggest too. Moreover, the story doesn't require bringing NATO down just having it fade into irreverence at the key moment. Trans-Atlantic distrust will have to play into that. THere is also the problem that with the URSS making all this aggressive move towards the middle-east and in canon later in Poland (this will create a lot of internal problem for many western communist party), the various nation of Europe will be a little scared of their estern neighbourgh and will want to feee the protection of NATO. Oh right, let's see in the old board the URSS greatly supported green parties all over Europe and when they become very important on various western europe goverment coalition, this party 'forced' this goverment towards an anti-NATO and anti-nuclear policy...the problems was that in the old thread too many had become too enamored of the 'fifth column' and 'sleeper agents' narrative totally misunderstanding how european continental politics work and how the average western european voters think. We can have a Snowden like figure release the 'Stay Behind papers' during the decision over the deployment of the Pershing II , at the same times a series of extremely bad managed incident that strain euro-american relations like thats: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavalese_cable_car_disaster_(1998)en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rescue_of_Giuliana_SgrenaEurope can shift the focus of her defence policy in an european-only organization, maybe with a further activation and integration of the WEU in the EEC; with eurocommunist like Berlinguer ( and the communist party in Spain and Greece) going for a third way policy in the cold war, supporting the democratic institution of western europe but remaining neutral (well armed neutral) as a political move to not break totally with the old guard of the local communist party but at the same time distance themselfs from the soviet union. Basically, instead of neutralize or 'Finlandize' western Europe, 'merely' separate her from the USA |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 20, 2018 18:00:11 GMT
NATO is fundamentally a strong organisation, especially back in the 80s. I have ideas with Spain and Greece and later West German developments. I need something else like you suggest too. Moreover, the story doesn't require bringing NATO down just having it fade into irreverence at the key moment. Trans-Atlantic distrust will have to play into that. THere is also the problem that with the URSS making all this aggressive move towards the middle-east and in canon later in Poland (this will create a lot of internal problem for many western communist party), the various nation of Europe will be a little scared of their estern neighbourgh and will want to feee the protection of NATO. Oh right, let's see in the old board the URSS greatly supported green parties all over Europe and when they become very important on various western europe goverment coalition, this party 'forced' this goverment towards an anti-NATO and anti-nuclear policy...the problems was that in the old thread too many had become too enamored of the 'fifth column' and 'sleeper agents' narrative totally misunderstanding how european continental politics work and how the average western european voters think. We can have a Snowden like figure release the 'Stay Behind papers' during the decision over the deployment of the Pershing II , at the same times a series of extremely bad managed incident that strain euro-american relations like thats: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavalese_cable_car_disaster_(1998)en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rescue_of_Giuliana_SgrenaEurope can shift the focus of her defence policy in an european-only organization, maybe with a further activation and integration of the WEU in the EEC; with eurocommunist like Berlinguer ( and the communist party in Spain and Greece) going for a third way policy in the cold war, supporting the democratic institution of western europe but remaining neutral (well armed neutral) as a political move to not break totally with the old guard of the local communist party but at the same time distance themselfs from the soviet union. Basically, instead of neutralize or 'Finlandize' western Europe, 'merely' separate her from the USA That's given me something to think about. Thank you for the insightful remarks. This is a rewrite so things are different in many areas. |
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James G
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Post by James G on Feb 20, 2018 18:01:09 GMT
(33)
January 1980:
Guatemalan rebels took the fight back to the streets of Guatemala City once again. The main ranks of the EGP were still decimated by the heavy fighting up in the highlands and there was much reorganising to be done as well as recruitment of new fighters… the EGP always had problems gaining membership so had to force anyone they could into service. Those in the country’s capital were professionals though, dedicated fighters who had much experience and plenty of motivation. They had been preceded months beforehand in striking in Guatemala City by fools yet those mistakes were corrected by the return of gunmen on a rampage. They arrived in the middle of a city-wide march by civilian protesters that government forces had attacked after such an event had been declared illegal. The gunmen used that event in late January as cover and there were agent provocateurs within the crowds of demonstrators no matter what the denials from the EGP said. Doing what had been done in the past – before the EGP suddenly was given a shot in the arm by the Cubans –, those gunmen targeted symbolic people accused of corruption and mistreating the people as well as important figures in the regime. They couldn’t get anywhere near Ríos Montt but others in his sham government were targeted for outright murder and then there were the economic oppressors of the people who lived in Guatemala City whose homes were invaded and they were snatched to be dragged away into the countryside. Such people were later given trials for crimes against the people. These took place in the countryside among rebel encampments and there was only one conclusion from such attempts at providing justice for the people to hear about: that being the death of those kidnapped and found guilty.
Better attempts at legality were being tried by the rebels down in Nicaragua. The Sandinistas were still in no position to win the fight against Somoza anytime soon. They needed external help and while Cuba was willing to do so, there were demands made of Ortega and what was left of the FSLN leadership. The guerrillas needed legitimacy for the outside world to see, even if that was a sham. A provisional government was declared with the allegation that those in Managua no longer represented the Nicaraguan people. The new government requested recognition and support from aboard. Cuba recognised that government, so too did Grenada. There was hope that other countries, those recently freed after being engaged in a revolutionary struggle, would do so too. Aid would come to help the provisional government and that aid would include Cuban troops no longer disguised as volunteers. The Cubans told Ortega that the Soviets wouldn’t recognise them at first and would drag their feet on the issue because of their relations with Americans, but this was the start of the process. As could be expected, there wasn’t much recognition from elsewhere. North Korea and Vietnam offer partial recognition by no one else was willing to yet, not with Somoza still in control of most of Nicaragua and his government being internationally agreed to be the legitimate one. The Cubans also didn’t at once send troops either. They were waiting to see how the United States would react. Moreover, up in Cuba, away from its people down in Nicaragua with the Sandinistas, there were domestic troubles that Castro was having that needed attention first too. Be patient, the Sandinistas were told. In reality, Havana was trying to get a read on the reaction of the United States before fully-committing to Nicaragua.
General Romero had refused to beg Guatemala not to pull out from El Salvador but he had been close to it. However, his pride wouldn’t allow him to do that. Even if he had, it wouldn’t have mattered anyway. Guatemala’s new leader had withdrawn his troops and left Romero in the lurch. It had been those who departed to had been keeping a lid on things in El Salvador by giving Romero the fire-power to go after opposition rebels with numbers. When they left, Romero had turned to his CIA contacts and also gone through the US Ambassador too: he was told that at this moment, the United States couldn’t directly help. The bastards betrayed him. Romero unleashed his death squads again, those to go out hunting for and killing resistance whether they were guerrillas or political opponents. Cutting the head off the snake was what he called it. This was all that could be done. He was feeling the pressure from within, among other military officers, and, after seeing what had just happened in Guatemala, didn’t want to share the fate of the former president there. Some of his death squads also committed some acts under the disguise of acts undertaken by the rebels too – they weren’t very well organised and incapable really – in murdering Romero’s internal opponents, real and imaginary. El Salvador lost some of its brightest and best in this deception, those who knew what they were doing when it came to combatting rebels and would be mighty useful now that the Guatemalans had departed. Romero was only concerned with the here and now though.
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