WI: Joint German-Soviet ultimatum to Poland in 1939

[eurofed]

Feb 13, 2018 17:08:37 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 13, 2018 17:07:27 GMT eurofed said:

By the way, I found an online source about the "Axis-Soviet WWII Alliance" scenario that I deem rather interesting. It uses a later PoD than the one I used in this thread own (successful Axis-Soviet negotiations in late '40s) and the scenario overall fairly compelling and plausible, even if it has its criticizable aspects (e.g. it makes Japan avoid Pearl Harbor, then it uses a ludicrous secondary PoD of US Commie-Nazi fifth columnists staging a 9/11-style bombing to justify American belligerance). As usual, one can mentally add Hitler dying at an appropriate moment to avoid an untimely breakdown of the German-Soviet alliance. You may find it here.

Will check it out.

Well, the author certainly knows how to use martial images and music to make the tale compelling, and I agree with most of the event sequence in his TL, such as the main strategic and economic features of this alt-WWII, the emergent hard limits to force projection for both sides, and the ultimate outcome of the conflict. I would have just let Japan follow its strategic compulsions down the usual path to PH rather than pick the ludicrous idea of a Commie-Nazi 9/11 analogue to bring America in the fight. I agree with the described event sequence about India, a limited Nazi-Soviet and Japanese strategic breakout in the border regions of the subcontinent ultimately stopped by hard logistic constraints, the pro-Axis radical nationalists seizing the leadership of the Indian independence movement in these circumstances, and India rebelling and picking a Vichy-style stance. Although I can also easily imagine American influence keeping India bound to the Allied side, if with definite neutralist leanings. ITTL, it could go both ways, really. I also concur with an intact Nazi-Soviet war machine tapping the entire Euro-Russian-Muslim pool of resources, the Allied bombing offensive would essentially fail and the Axis weapon programs would get greatly improved and accelerated, even if all likelihood with the USSR an overt enemy the Soviet espionage network in the Western Allied nations and its infiltration of their nuclear programs would soon be rooted out and neutralized just like the Nazi one.

[eurofed]

I've been giving second thoughts to the basic German-Soviet Axis concept of this scenario because of its fascinating geopolitical, strategic, and industrial implications, and thinking about ways to make the German-Soviet alliance much more stable and functional than with Hitler and Stalin around. I assume a major, easy way would be to replace the OTL leaders of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia since before WWII. I'm still in favor of the idea to switch the place of Japan and China, not just the USSR, in the alliance setup for originality's sake. I suppose in such a case a little railroading might be necessary to let isolationist America pick a difficult and exhausting fight with the Axis, but I assume something can be done for the sake of the scenario. E.g. just assume Hitler and Stalin die during the 1920s (say during the Beer Hall putsch and the Polish-Soviet war respectively), Strasser and Zinoviev (or optimally Trotski, although this is more difficult because of his character flaws) become leaders of Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia, and forge a solid Axis alliance since the 1930s, which Italy and Hungary join out of sheer strategic convenience and revisionist ambitions. Japan instead gets alienated by Nazi-Soviet ties with China into reviving the Anglo-Japanese alliance and by extension joining the Allies. ITTL the 2nd Sino-Japanese war as we know it does not occur to alienate Japan from the Western powers, the Japanese do not start it because they fear Soviet power, and later it just becomes one more WWII front between the Axis and the Allies. Japan just holds on to Manchuria and cultivates an array of collaborationist warlords and KMT defectors as proxies in Northern China like it historically did before 1937. 

The buildup to WWII and its early course up to the Fall of France basically remain the same with a few tweaks (e.g. the Anschluss and the fall of Czechoslovakia occur earlier, Italy dismantles Yugoslavia with the help of its allies, Russia gobbles Finland and Germany occupies Sweden, Romania suffers the fate of Poland). Later, Spain, Vichy France, Greece, and Turkey join the Axis and Portugal is occupied. The Axis powers overrun the Med, North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia, and attack India, invading pat of it, although logistic constraints seriously limit their reach. Alighnment of factions in the Spanish Civil War becomes a little more complex ITTL, but we may assume a Nationalist leader pragmatic enough to follow Mussolini's example gets on top (may well be Franco just the same). Much the same way, some KMT leader that is willing to cooperate with Strasserist Germany and Soviet Russia becomes leader of Nationalist China and the CCP is purged, sidelined, or co-opted. He might well be Chiang just the same, but perhaps someone in the left-leaning wing of the KMT is more fitting. The Sino-Soviets cooperate to kick the Japanese out of Manchuria and Northern China, and push the Allies out of Indochina, but logistic constraints and concentration of Japanese power (later shored up by the Americans) protect the Japanese archipelago and Korea from conquest. India becomes a liberal and ideological major battleground between the Axis and the Allies, with different factions of the Indian nationalist movement supporting the two sides. America joins the war because say a combination of Axis navies sinking American ships in the Atlantic and Commie-Nazi saboteurs causing incidents in the USA with some serious loss of life to mess with Lend-Lease give FDR enough propaganda material for a declaration of war.

I have been wondering if in these circumstances, the Germans and the Soviets acting in concert can invade and subjugate the British Isles after they are done conquering the Med and the Middle East, by concentrating the bulk of their industrial and military power on a Sealion effort, achieving local air-naval supremacy in the Channel and the North Sea, and bombing/blockading Britain into submission. I suppose it can be done even with America in the war, if it happens during the one-year strategic window between US entry and effective mobilization of American potential, and the Germans and the Soviets temporarily mobilize most of their industrial and military power for a Sealion effort and the Battle of the Atlantic (they can throw only so much effort in the Indian bottleneck, anyway). They may do it with the intention to replicate the effort later for the Japanese Empire, but American mobilization can easily make invasion of Japan and Korea too difficult once it is completed. On the other hand, if Britain gets occupied, it is effectively lost for good for the Allies like the rest of Europe and its neighborhood, no way I can see the Americans projecting sufficient force from North America or Iceland to liberate it.

If this happens, the Dominions almost surely are simply going to merge with the USA and become part of America (except quite possibly for South Africa that may or may not pick a different, pro-Axis  path because of its racist hangups). India and China may end up in an interesting strategic place because of America's force projection in their areas, and quite possibly get divided in the peace settlement like OTL Germany and Korea. By the time America gets nukes and intercontinental bombers, the Axis powers in all likelihood shall have built their own WMD and intercontinental delivery systems thanks to their intact industrial potential and pooled scientific expertise, so MAD after a few cities at most on either side get destroyed is going to entrench a Cold War stalemate. TTL Cold War may easily see the world split between the Commie-Nazi bloc (Europe, North Africa, Russia, Central Asia, North India, and West/South China) and the Western world (USA enlarged with Canada and Australia, Latin America, Japanese Empire, Southeast Asia, South India, and East/North China). Sub-Saharan Africa is going to be a huge mess. Ironically the USSR may well end up winning the war in most other places, but losing the Far East to America and Japan. I'm just not sure which side of the Iron Curtain Indochina would most likely end up in.

[eurofed]

On further reflection, the original idea of a joint German-Soviet ultimatum on Poland (and the Baltic states) may still fit quite well to start WWII in the revised scenario, even if it doesn't get to be the PoD. Because of Hitler's death in the Beer Hall Putsch, the Nazi party still took power in Germany but the Strasser brothers became its supreme leaders. Much the same way, Stalin's death in the Polish-Soviet war allowed the Trotzki and Zinoviev duo to seize the mantle of leadership in Soviet Russia after Lenin's death. Strasserist Nazi Germany and Trotzkist-Zinovievist Soviet Russia shaped their strategic Axis alliance in the 1930s out of a mix of strategic and economic convenience, ideological pragmatism, and a common revisionist drive. Italy opportunistically joined when the Stresa Front broke down because of Italian conquest of Ethiopia and Anglo-French opposition to the Italian move. Hungary did the same because of its revisionist urges.

The Spanish Civil war was a confusing mess for a while of conflicting factions with variable ideological leanings and foreign-policy alignments, but it ended with a pro-Axis Nationalist regime in charge. Soviet support allowed the Anschluss, dismantlement of Czechoslovakia, and Italian occupation of Albania to occur earlier than OTL. The Nationalist regime in China built up solid ties with Germany and the USSR that helped it purge, marginalize, or co-opt the warlords and the CCP and consolidate its control of central and southern China. Axis support also helped China develop its economy and military in a decent shape, even if it was still no match for the great powers. This alienated the Japanese Empire away from the Axis and caused it to drift closer to the Western powers. Concern about the Soviet threat and growing Chinese power drove the Japanese to avoid an all-out military confronation with China. The Japanese Empire instead pursued a strategy of holding on to its Manchukuo puppet and cultivating an array of pro-Japanese warlords and Nationalist Chinese dissidents as proxies across northern China. The Japanese ultra-nationalists were unhappy with this but their influence got drastically curtailed after they staged a failed coup attempt and the Japanese moderates in the government and the armed forces enacted a comprehensive purge of the radicals with the support of the Emperor.

The German and Soviet leaders drafted a comprehensive deal for the partition of Eastern Europe in spheres of influence, later expanded to the whole Old World with the participation of Italy, and started enacting it with a joint ultimatum to Poland and the Baltic states. The Poles resisted, and the Anglo-French backed them with a declaration of war to Germany and the USSR, but the Western powers could do little to prevent Poland and the Baltics being overrun by the Wehrmacht and the Red Army. Italy and Hungary soon expanded the conflict by attacking Yugoslavia and Romania and joining the Axis in the war. The Germans and the Soviets helped their allies deliver the coup de grace to the Yugoslavs and the Romanians once they were done with Poland. The Anglo-French tried to contain the Axis onslaught by bombing Baku, but their effort did little damage in practice.

The Germans and the Soviets occupied Scandinavia, the Anglo-French attempted to react with a landing in Norway but their effort went nowhere. The Soviets and the Italians engaged the Anglo-French in the Med and the Middle East. Their initial offensive drive had a limited success, but the Anglo-French were too busy on multiple fronts to stage a counterattack. Pro-Axis Nationalist China further enlarged the conflict in Asia by attacking Manchukuo and the pro-Japanese entities in Northern China, the Soviets backed them with what they could spare from the other fronts. Japan and Britain revived their old alliance and the Japanese Empire joined the Allies.

The Wehrmacht invaded and overrun France and the Low Countries, the French surrendered and set up the collaborationist Vichy regime. The British and the Japanese fought on, so the Axis leaders decided to give strategic priority to the defeat of the British Empire. The Germans redeploedy the bulk of their military power in the southern theater, while the Soviets and the Italians renewed their efforts with better preparation. Spain, Vichy France, Greece, and Turkey joined the Axis because they deemed it was going to win or they assumed it was necessary for survival. Axis forces overrun North Africa and the Middle East, linked with Italian troops in East Africa, occupied the Horn of Africa, Arabia, and Central Asia, and reached the borders of India. Spain conquered Portugal with Axis support, the British retaliated by occupying the Canaries and the Azores. Sino-Soviet forces gradually and painfully drove the Japanese and the British out of northern China, Manchuria, and Indochina, but the Anglo-Japanese successfully fortified in Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Maritime Southeast Asia. They also seized Sakhalin and Hainan. Axis forces invaded northern India but logistic constraints limited their advance. However British hold on India got shaky because the Indians expected the imminent collapse of the British Empire and agitated for independence. The Indian nationalist movement split between pro-Allies moderates and pro-Axis radicals.

Loss of American lives from Axis sinking of US merchant shipping and attempts of Commie-Nazi saboteurs to mess with Lend-Lease production drove the USA to join the war. The Axis leaders decided to concentrate their efforts to crush Britain first, Japan second to deprive the Americans from jumping points to attack Eurasia before US potential can be properly mobilized. Concentrated Euro-Soviet military power allowed the Axis powers to seize temporary superiority in the Atlantic and the air war, bomb and blockade the British Isles, and pave the way for an amphibious invasion of Britain and Ireland. Initial British attempts to counter with chemical and biological weapons soon got cut short when the Axis powers retaliated with their own chemical weapons. Britain and Ireland fell to Axis invasion, and the British Empire collapsed. Canada, Australia, and New Zealand decided a full merger with America was the only way for survival, they set up a republican regime and successfully negotiated their union with the USA as a set of US states. Pro-Axis elements took power in South Africa, made a separate peace, and took over the rest of Southern Africa. The British Raj collapsed and India fell into civil war as pro-Allies and pro-Axis nationalist factions set up rival governments and fought for power. Axis forces pushed across northern India and American troops landed in southern India to shore up their respective proxies. The Americans decided to switch strategic priority to the East Asian and South Asian theaters because of the fall of Britain.

American forces helped the Japanese repel renewed Axis attacks on Japan, Korea, Sakhalin, Taiwan, Hainan, and the Malay Archipelago. Subsequently, the American-Japanese strategic counteroffensive gradually overrun the Russian Far East, Manchuria, northern and eastern China, and southern Indochina. However the stubborn resistance of pro-Axis Chinese and Indochinese nationalists combined with logistic and terrain constraints discouraged the Americans, and by extension the Japanese, from too much in-depth penetration in China and Indochina. Situation in East Asia gradually stabilized with the Allies holding the Russian Far East, Manchuria, northern and eastern China, and southern Indochina, while the Chinese Nationalists kept western and southern China and northern Indochina. The Americans and the Japanese organized dissident Nationalist Chinese elements into a pro-Allies government, and alliance with the Americans reined the Japanese occupation forces into good behavior. This granted the Allies enough local support to hold occupied areas of China without overwhelming trouble. However, the Nationalist Chinese deployed effective resistance to Allied invasion in the rest of China with support from the other Axis powers. More or less the same pattern applied on a lesser scale in Indochina. In India, the situation gradually got simplified to division of the subcontinent between the pro-Allies Indian National Congress government controlling southern India with the support of US and Japanese forces, and the pro-Axis Azad Hind government holding northern India with the support of Axis troops.

In Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, Central Asia, and western-central Siberia the Axis reigned supreme. All American attempts to invade the Axis core turned into costly and embarassing failures. A global strategic stalemate gradually took shape as air-naval war continued in the Atlantic to no clear advantage for each side. In the Indian, Chinese, and Indochinese fronts, logistic constraints, difficult terrain, vast distances, and divided loyalties of the natives prevented the belligerants from making substantial gains. Sub-Saharan Africa would have been potentially open to an Allied invasion and takeover, but in practice the Americans didn't really exploit the opportunity because of their extensive engagement in other theaters. Pro-Axis South Africa was thus free to consolidate its control of Southern Africa. The rest of the continent fell into appalling chaos as colonial rule collapsed due to lack of support from the European mainland but the African natives were simply too backward and disorganized to take over in any effective fashion. Colonial administrators and European settlers attempting to hold on to power, tribal uprisings, and ambitious warlords fought for control in a bloody, confusing mess as the Axis lacked force projection capability, and the Allies were too busy elsewhere, to go in and restore order. 

The conflict experienced a last major flare-up when the Americans and the Axis powers near-simultaneously developed nuclear weapons and the means (long-range bombers) for intercontinental WMD delivery. After a few cities on each side were devastated by nuclear fire and chemical poisoning, the Allied and Axis governments quickly agreed to make peace. The peace settlement left the world divided between the Commie-Nazi totalitarian bloc and the liberal-democratic Western world. The Axis bloc included Europe, Russia, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, most of Siberia, the Horn of Africa, Southern Africa, northern India, western and southern China, and northern Indochina. The Western bloc included the Americas, the Japanese Empire, the Far East, Manchuria, northern and eastern China, southern India, southern Indochina, the Malay Archipelago, and Australasia. The central portion of the African continent was a chaotic no man's land where neither bloc held a clear sway.

[eurofed]

WWII ended in a divided world. The totalitarian Axis bloc controlled the vast majority of Eurasia and the two ends of the African continent. Two main subdivisions made it up, the fascist German-Italian sphere of influence and the communist Soviet one. The two spheres maintained a loose military alliance against the Western bloc and important trade exchanges. In political and economic terms, however, they formed two separate and distinct entities. In the postwar environment, the persistence of a powerful common enemy, the need to stabilize and assimilate their sizable wartime gains, and the huge costs of another conflict meant the fascists and the communists kept relatively amicable relations, and avoided getting hostile or seriously estranged or hostile, although they did take some distance. A serious split between the former Axis allies was a distinct future possibility, but its fulfillment was an open question.

Within the fascist sphere, Germany of course was the unquestioned supreme leader, even if Italy had enough prestige to act as a junior sidekick most of the time. Potentially speaking, Britain and France too were important enough to gain a say in fascist Europe, once they recovered from their disgraceful status of defeated enemies. So would Spain, once it developed enough. Because of geographical separation, South Africa enjoyed a sizable degree of autonomy in its own area. In the Soviet sphere, the USSR reigned supreme, although West China and North India had enough potential to get some autonomy once they developed enough. The fascist and communist blocs each developed their own international organizations to ensure economic and military integration under the control of their respective hegemon nations.

The fascist bloc included Germany, Italy, France, Britain, Spain, Hungary, Greece, South Africa, Egypt, Greater Syria, and Arabia. Germany annexed the Netherlands, the Flanders, Alsace, Lorraine, northern and central Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, western and central Poland, Bohemia-Moravia, Slovakia, eastern Slovenia, Croatia-Slavonia, Bosnia, Serbia, the Banat, and part of Transylvania. The Germans planned for complete political and cultural assimilation of all annexed territories. Because of the influence of Strasserist leadership and the geopolitcal constraints from alliance with the USSR, the Nazi regime re-oriented its imperialist plans from settler colonization of Eastern Europe and European Russia at large to economic and political domination of Western Europe as well as forced assimilation of Central Europe, the Western Balkans, and the other Germanic areas of Europe.

For the same reasons, it also adjusted its racial doctrines and made them practical enough to deem collaborationists in conquered nations usually suitable for assimilation in the Reich. Extermination, however, remained the default option to deal with political dissidents, disabled people, individuals that clung to their original national identities, and persons deemed racially unfit for one reason or another. They deemed scapegoat minorities such as the Jews and Roma unfit to stay in fascist Europe. However, circumstances of the war and the peace settlement allowed dealing with them by means of forced mass deportation outside the continent.

Italy annexed Nice, Savoy, Corsica, southern Switzerland, Malta, the Balearic islands, western Slovenia, Dalmatia, Montenegro, Albania, the Ionian islands, Tunisia, Chad, southern Sudan, French and British Somaliland, to add to its pre-existing colonial empire in Libya, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. It aimed to enforce complete assimilation of these territories pretty much the same way as Germany did in its own conquered lands, with forced political and cultural assimilation of collaborationists and ruthless elimination of dissidents. The regime deemed African Blacks racially unfit for assimilation and eventually planned for their gradual ethnic substitution, although settler colonization plans gave a higher priority to the North African colonies than the East African ones. Spain annexed Portugal, Gibraltar, and French Morocco. France got Wallonia and western Switzerland, and kept Algeria. Fascist France and Spain planned the same kind of ruthless settler colonization and forced assimilation policy for their own portions of North Africa that Italy did for the rest. Hungary annexed southern Slovakia, Vojvodina, and most of Transylvania, and it took Wallachia as a protectorate. Greece got Cyprus and the Dodecanese. Egypt took northern Sudan. Greater Syria included the central and southern portions of Syria and Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan, and Kuwait. Arabia took all of the Arabian Peninsula.

The communist bloc included the USSR, Bulgaria, Turkey, Iran, North India, West China, and North Indochina. In comparison to the European fascists, the Soviets on paper were not so dedicated to large-scale forced cultural assimilation and settler colonization on paper, although they were just as determined to exterminate political and nationalist dissidents. In practice, however, they enacted a good deal of Russification and ethnic substitution of their own, by means of mass deportation and resettlement. The USSR annexed Finland, the Baltic nations, eastern Poland, Bessarabia, Moldavia, western Armenia, northwestern Iran, and Xinjiang. Bulgaria got Vardar Macedonia. Turkey got the northern portions of Syria and Iraq. The USSR, Iran, and North India partitioned Afghanistan. Iran got Baluchistan. North India got Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, the Indo-Gangetic Plain, and the northern portion of Central India. West China got the western two-thirds of China proper, Tibet, and Mongolia. North Indochina included northern Vietnam, Laos, and northern Thailand.

The Western bloc got America as its main leader and the Japanese Empire as its junior sidekick. It included the USA, the Latin American nations, South India, the Indochinese Federation, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, East China, and the Japanese Empire. As a rule, the Americans encouraged development of liberal democracy across their own spheres, although they not so rarely tolerated friendly authoritarian regimes to stay in power when it seemed necessary to protect their own interests and stability of their bloc. They provided generous aid to encourage the political stabilization and socio-economic development of Latin America and the portion of Asia they controlled, with the aim to groom them into a replacement of Europe.

After the fall of Britain, the USA, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand agreed for a political merger. The Canadian provinces, the Australian states, and New Zealand became US states. PEI merged with Nova Scotia for reasons of insufficient population to form a state. For similar reasons, the Northern Territory, the Northwest Territories, and Yukon became US Territories. America also annexed the European island colonies in the Pacific and the Caribbean, New Guinea, Chukotka, and Kamchatka, as various US Territories. Guatemala annexed British Guatemala, Venezuela and Brazil partitioned the Guyana colonies, and Argentina got the Falkland islands.

The Japanese Empire got northern Sakhalin, Outer Manchuria, the Trans-Baikal, and Inner Manchuria. It enacted a mass expulsion of the Russian and Han population in the annexed territories, largely replacing it with Japanese and Korean settlers. Under the prevalent influence of America, the Japanese Empire experienced a gradual evolution into a liberal democracy and a federal union with enfranchisement and devolution for the overseas territories. It also got a fair degree of cultural Americanization, although it kept its own distinct identity. Its example set a political evolution pattern the other ‘Asian Tigers’ were later to follow when they got sufficient socio-economic development. East China included the easternmost third of China, Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macao. The Philippines got independence. So did Indonesia as the federal union of the Dutch East Indies, British Borneo, and Portuguese Timor. The Malay Peninsula formed its own independent state as well. Southern Thailand, Cambodia, and southern Vietnam formed an Indochinese federation as well, since the Americans and the Japanese were concerned about their stability and ability to resist a communist aggression as separate states.

Because of WWII, its outcome in a compromise peace, the subsequent division of the world in hostile Western and Axis blocs, not to mention the latter’s split in fascist and communist areas, the League of Nations collapsed and no successor came to replace its failed experiment. Instead, the three blocs created various regional military alliances and economic integration organizations within their own boundaries. In Africa, South Africa extended its control across Southern Africa, up to and including Angola, Mozambique, Northern Rhodesia, and Katanga. it annexed South West Africa, Southern Rhodesia, Bechuanaland, Basutoland, and Swaziland, and set up the other areas as colonial protectorates. Brutal subjugation, economic exploitation, and ruthless repression of dissent became the standard for the Black population. After collapse of European colonial rule, the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa became a postcolonial disaster area swept by warlord chaos, famine, bloody ethnic, religious, and tribal conflicts, and attempts of European settlers, White mercenaries, and Black strongmen to carve out petty kingdoms. The Allies and the Axis powers could not agree to a proper peace settlement for the area that would allow for its stabilization. They were unwilling to continue the war and risk MAD just to force the point and too busy to organize their spheres of influence elsewhere, so they defaulted to leaving the area as a chaotic buffer zone where they would compete for influence and strive for control by typical Cold War means.