The British will hold, a British-Soviet war in the 1980s.

[lordroel]

Mar 1, 2018 20:13:55 GMT James G said:

I agree with most of that. East and West Germany uniting might be in public for propaganda though the Soviets, but the East Germans too, would have an interest in a de facto separation for a while. Won't want silly ideas from the former West Germany coming east, would they?

The East Germans have the Stasi who will be very busy for a while to come.

[James G]

Mar 1, 2018 20:16:50 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:13:55 GMT James G said:

I agree with most of that. East and West Germany uniting might be in public for propaganda though the Soviets, but the East Germans too, would have an interest in a de facto separation for a while. Won't want silly ideas from the former West Germany coming east, would they?

The East Germans have the Stasi who will be very busy for a while to come.

Very busy indeed.

[lordroel]

Mar 1, 2018 20:25:31 GMT James G said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:16:50 GMT lordroel said:

The East Germans have the Stasi who will be very busy for a while to come.

Very busy indeed.

Also i doubt the African countries like Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt are going to offer any support to the British ore Free French, that leaves only Gibraltar and Cyprus as their basses.

[James G]

What about Malta?

[lordroel]

Mar 1, 2018 20:41:39 GMT James G said:

What about Malta?

If the Soviets are not in Italy and decide to do a Siege of Malta 2.0 it might be possible.

[James G]

Mar 1, 2018 20:43:57 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:41:39 GMT James G said:

What about Malta?

If the Soviets are not in Italy and decide to do a Siege of Malta 2.0 it might be possible.

I was thinking along the lines of Malta going Soviet friendly and cutting the British / Free French position in the Med in half.

[stevep]

Mar 1, 2018 20:31:24 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:25:31 GMT James G said:

Very busy indeed.

Also i doubt the African countries like Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and Egypt are going to offer any support to the British ore Free French, that leaves only Gibraltar and Cyprus as their basses.

  Guys

  I can't see Cyprus being much use since the RN will be drawn into the battle to defend the British Is.  Once Italy starts to fall I think any allied operations would be either west of that or operating from Gibraltar only. 

  Which raises the question of what happens to Spain?  Can it avoid the general collapse?  Depending on the date as to whether its still under Franco or tending to democracy or whatever.  If it falls as well then Gibraltar's position is hopeless, there is the probability that Soviet Med/Black Sea forces will be sortieing into the Atlantic and also a/c operating from Iberia widens the range of attacks on British supply lines.

  With France securely under Soviet control, even if say much of the fleet and say some air units and possibly ground ones manage to get away to form a new Free French force, I'm not sure how long Britain can maintain a defence against the sort of power the Soviets can commit.  Unless Britain has a much stronger economy than OTL and resulting technological and military resources.  Even then it would be a matter of time and given the advances in lethality of weapons in the decades since 1940 I suspect that the time wouldn't be a long period.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Mar 1, 2018 20:52:55 GMT James G said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:43:57 GMT lordroel said:

If the Soviets are not in Italy and decide to do a Siege of Malta 2.0 it might be possible.

I was thinking along the lines of Malta going Soviet friendly and cutting the British / Free French position in the Med in half.

You mean selling its soul to remain independent.

[stevep]

Mar 1, 2018 20:52:55 GMT James G said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:43:57 GMT lordroel said:

If the Soviets are not in Italy and decide to do a Siege of Malta 2.0 it might be possible.

I was thinking along the lines of Malta going Soviet friendly and cutting the British / Free French position in the Med in half.

  I suspect they wouldn't given their strongly Catholic and also at that time there were still fairly strong links with Britain.  Coupled with I think Libya had designs on the island you could see another siege, although that would be the 3rd one at least in recent centuries.  How much support Britain and an also beleaguered Italy could give would be another issue.

  Depending on the timing and run up you might have seen the OTL Israel-Egypt treaty in the late 70's might have occurred so you could Egypt no longer aligned with the Soviets and hence probably neutrality in the conflict, which would make the eastern Med a bit less than a Soviet lake.  Also I'm not sure Turkey especially would lay down for Soviet domination since, whatever they might say then sooner or later the Soviets would want control of the straits at a minimum.  As such I could see them fighting, tying up a lot of Soviet forces and blocking the straits for a long period.

  Note that just because most/all of western Europe falls to Soviet control doesn't mean the rest of the continent will give up and if you want a realistic scenario for Britain to fight anything but a very short defence something needs to be done to tie up at least some of the Soviet resources.

[lordroel]

Mar 1, 2018 21:08:58 GMT stevep said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:52:55 GMT James G said:

I was thinking along the lines of Malta going Soviet friendly and cutting the British / Free French position in the Med in half.

  I suspect they wouldn't given their strongly Catholic and also at that time there were still fairly strong links with Britain.  Coupled with I think Libya had designs on the island you could see another siege, although that would be the 3rd one at least in recent centuries.  How much support Britain and an also beleaguered Italy could give would be another issue.

  Depending on the timing and run up you might have seen the OTL Israel-Egypt treaty in the late 70's might have occurred so you could Egypt no longer aligned with the Soviets and hence probably neutrality in the conflict, which would make the eastern Med a bit less than a Soviet lake.  Also I'm not sure Turkey especially would lay down for Soviet domination since, whatever they might say then sooner or later the Soviets would want control of the straits at a minimum.  As such I could see them fighting, tying up a lot of Soviet forces and blocking the straits for a long period.

  Note that just because most/all of western Europe falls to Soviet control doesn't mean the rest of the continent will give up and if you want a realistic scenario for Britain to fight anything but a very short defence something needs to be done to tie up at least some of the Soviet resources.

Okay a Siege of Malta 3.0 with the Libyan backed by the Soviets doing the siege, the Soviets need to do the most work as the Libyan Navy in 1985 is not that big:

1 × Vosper Mk.7 frigate, Dat Assawari

4 × Assad class corvettes 

4 × Nanuchka class corvettes

Some light units of Osa and Jaguar class 

3 × Polnocny class landing ships

One LSD ship

Some minor vessels

[James G]

Mar 1, 2018 21:08:58 GMT stevep said:

Mar 1, 2018 20:52:55 GMT James G said:

I was thinking along the lines of Malta going Soviet friendly and cutting the British / Free French position in the Med in half.

  I suspect they wouldn't given their strongly Catholic and also at that time there were still fairly strong links with Britain.  Coupled with I think Libya had designs on the island you could see another siege, although that would be the 3rd one at least in recent centuries.  How much support Britain and an also beleaguered Italy could give would be another issue.

  Depending on the timing and run up you might have seen the OTL Israel-Egypt treaty in the late 70's might have occurred so you could Egypt no longer aligned with the Soviets and hence probably neutrality in the conflict, which would make the eastern Med a bit less than a Soviet lake.  Also I'm not sure Turkey especially would lay down for Soviet domination since, whatever they might say then sooner or later the Soviets would want control of the straits at a minimum.  As such I could see them fighting, tying up a lot of Soviet forces and blocking the straits for a long period.

  Note that just because most/all of western Europe falls to Soviet control doesn't mean the rest of the continent will give up and if you want a realistic scenario for Britain to fight anything but a very short defence something needs to be done to tie up at least some of the Soviet resources.

As to tying up Soviet resources maybe wars in Finland (Finns refuse to do as they are told) and a bigger conflict with Yugoslavia and Romania where both likewise refuse to play ball too?

[lordroel]

Mar 2, 2018 11:51:20 GMT James G said:

Mar 1, 2018 21:08:58 GMT stevep said:

  I suspect they wouldn't given their strongly Catholic and also at that time there were still fairly strong links with Britain.  Coupled with I think Libya had designs on the island you could see another siege, although that would be the 3rd one at least in recent centuries.  How much support Britain and an also beleaguered Italy could give would be another issue.

  Depending on the timing and run up you might have seen the OTL Israel-Egypt treaty in the late 70's might have occurred so you could Egypt no longer aligned with the Soviets and hence probably neutrality in the conflict, which would make the eastern Med a bit less than a Soviet lake.  Also I'm not sure Turkey especially would lay down for Soviet domination since, whatever they might say then sooner or later the Soviets would want control of the straits at a minimum.  As such I could see them fighting, tying up a lot of Soviet forces and blocking the straits for a long period.

  Note that just because most/all of western Europe falls to Soviet control doesn't mean the rest of the continent will give up and if you want a realistic scenario for Britain to fight anything but a very short defence something needs to be done to tie up at least some of the Soviet resources.

As to tying up Soviet resources maybe wars in Finland (Finns refuse to do as they are told) and a bigger conflict with Yugoslavia and Romania where both likewise refuse to play ball too?

As far if i can tell, Finland tries to walk the middle way, but with a Soviet dominated Europe, i think they will do what the Soviets tell them to do.

If Yugoslavia does not do what the Soviets want, i can see the Soviets invading them and a early civil war break out between pro-Soviet and anti-Soviet elements in the country.

[stevep]

Mar 2, 2018 12:20:44 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 2, 2018 11:51:20 GMT James G said:

As to tying up Soviet resources maybe wars in Finland (Finns refuse to do as they are told) and a bigger conflict with Yugoslavia and Romania where both likewise refuse to play ball too?

As far if i can tell, Finland tries to walk the middle way, but with a Soviet dominated Europe, i think they will do what the Soviets tell them to do.

If Yugoslavia does not do what the Soviets want, i can see the Soviets invading them and a early civil war break out between pro-Soviet and anti-Soviet elements in the country.

  Finland probably will bend if the democracies are being overwhelmed as resistance would look pointless but its not much good for attacking Norway unless you go through Sweden, which very likely would fight.  They will go down but not without causing some problems.

[lordroel]

Mar 2, 2018 14:08:31 GMT stevep said:

Mar 2, 2018 12:20:44 GMT lordroel said:

As far if i can tell, Finland tries to walk the middle way, but with a Soviet dominated Europe, i think they will do what the Soviets tell them to do.

If Yugoslavia does not do what the Soviets want, i can see the Soviets invading them and a early civil war break out between pro-Soviet and anti-Soviet elements in the country.

  Finland probably will bend if the democracies are being overwhelmed as resistance would look pointless but its not much good for attacking Norway unless you go through Sweden, which very likely would fight.  They will go down but not without causing some problems.

Sweden in the end could if the mange to hold become a major British ally, wonder if they could replace the American marine brigade in Norway and hold it together with the British, Dutch and Canadians.

[stevep]

Mar 2, 2018 19:51:19 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 2, 2018 14:08:31 GMT stevep said:

  Finland probably will bend if the democracies are being overwhelmed as resistance would look pointless but its not much good for attacking Norway unless you go through Sweden, which very likely would fight.  They will go down but not without causing some problems.

Sweden in the end could if the mange to hold become a major British ally, wonder if they could replace the American marine brigade in Norway and hold it together with the British, Dutch and Canadians.

  In the short term possibly but without Soviet forces being either heavily committed or defeated somewhere else I can't see Scandinavia holding out.  Although possibly if Finland joins in right from the start and Sweden supports them heavily then the region can hold out for a while.  Although it would be vulnerable from the south once Germany and Denmark were in Soviet hands.  Its basically difficult to see even Britain holding out once France is in hostile hands let alone anywhere on the continent in the north or centre of Europe.