Development of the German Navy after a 1916 victory including some large naval victories

[steffen]

Hi,

i read some interesting timelines quite some time ago, for sure they were german-wanks like hell, but they gave me some ideas

First Change: the small german cruiser in the baltic is destroyed without capturing the german codebooks.

Let´s say in December 1914 v.Ingenohl use his one-time-chance to hurt a part of the Grand fleet.
To achive this we accept that the Royal Navy loose 7-8 battleships as total loss (either by german gunfire or beeing sunk later by flooding/submarines/mines - it doesn´t matter. the core idea is that the german plan is succsessfull - a part of the Royal Navy was destroyed) for 1 german BB sunk. In light forces the germans loose 10 destroyer and 4 cruisers, the RN loose 20 destroyers and 8 cruisers. We need such big victory for the balance moved significant into the german camp.

Sometimes in mid 1915 another clash - similar to Jutland happens, with OTL results, esp. with some more luck for the germans (OTL Tiger and Barham survived damages that otherwise could have been deadly). So 5 main ships for the Royal navy lost compared to 1 german battle cruiser and 1 Pre-DN. Because Lützow isn´t ready the germans loose Moltke - the structural failure of the german BC is similar, before A-turret they lack the protection - for their torpedo room.

Also, with some more sense, the corps send into the east aren´t send, Tannenberg is fought without Hindenburg and so it is von Prittwitz who achived this victory (OTL these forces had no impact on this battle, but they were missed in the "race to the sea")
With these additional forces the germans "win" that battle, still with high casulties but the frontline end in Boulogne-sur-mar, from here via Arras to Saint Quentin.

Because of this the logistics of the Entente is more stretched, more engagements in the channel (germans own the southern side), Belgium is 100% occupied.

Sometimes in 1915 - after massive assaults by the Entente to push back the germans in this area both sides are fully exhausted.
Casulties are 10-20%higher on the german side, 30% on the french and 20% on the british side.
So no Galipoli-invasion was planned or done, italy did not join the Entente (overall the CP looked stronger).

In the west germany stood on the defence from nov14 to february16, keeping more or less its frontline (pushed back at some points for 5-12km)
In the same time the "Kleinkrieg" at the coast forced the british to evacuate 1/3 of the Citizens of London (as it seems to be accepted that without the very important coastal traffic the supply-line for the british can´t be kept supplied by railway-only. 

Also higher losses for trans-channel-shipping.

In the east the large operation that took poland happens, the russian armies suffer worse as OTL (30-40% at this time), the austrians have lighter casulties (10-15%), the germans higher (20% higher as OTL).
In the second half of 1915 the germans took moon-island, in an engagement with russian ships they achived some succsess, sinking Rurik without losses and the austrian-hungarians and bulgarians take out serbia. Greece stay neutral, the osmans could move more forces into the southwest and southeast, minimizing british advance here. 


The german spring operation 1916 in the east cause the russians another general retreat - partly a full breakdown of the russian armed forces. The baltics fell into german hads in may 1916.

In the west the battle of Verdun - the "Blutmühle" happens similar to OTL (february 1916), stretching the french forced thin.
Some battle with a new army of the british fail because overall the Entente is weaker as OTL. 

In september 1916 germany make peace with belgium, offering reparations for damage - but want the belgian congo and basing rights for german warships.
France - in some very bloody counterattacks face rebellions similar to OTL 1917. 
In the east the tsar get replaced 1 year earlier and a republican government offers peace at the current borders, just weeks after romania declared war to russia.

The peace of  13th october 1916 in Stockholm ends the war in the east, there is a baltic dutchy created, a german puppet but with a demilitarized border. Also a kingdom of poland, out of russian poland and some additional ukraine areas. Russia pay reparations, some in gold (that is transfered by germany to belgium) and rawmaterials.

The western forces recognize that the whole might of germany AND Austria-Hungaria could be moved against their shakened frontline, so they decide to offer terms.


February 11th 1917 ends the great war with the peace of frankfurt (the kaiser demanded that location)
Germany get back all colonies they lost to france and great britain. France has to give up french polynesia to germany (because japan had occupied german bases in the central pacific).
Germany recive madagascar and walfishbay from great britain.
Germany get all treaties accepted by the french and british.
Germany occupy the area from bethune (with its mines) for 30 years
France give up some smaller colonial areas to round the new german congo and at the atlantic western coast, esp. near morocco.

France pay reparations for german wounded soldiers (pensions) for 30 years, but no more as 3% of its BIP. Otherwise there are no restrictions or limitations.
The germans want peace, but could not enforce the french to remove their army, france want to fight on but without any ressources and no cash and credits they have to accept that peace.

Serbia is reduced to a internal rump state, fully responsible for that war. Bulgaria gets large parts of it, Austria-Hungaria recives reparations and the right to explore the baku-region for 25 years (they had oil and they want to explore that)

The osmans get some areas back from russia (minor border corrections), but get the russian zone of influence in persia. Quwait and cyprus are back in osman hands, but the osmans have to stay outside the sinai-desert. Some local rebellions got slaughtered otherwise a T.E. Lawrence died in a turkish prison. 

Now - with this war - still bloody - france and uk have overall 85% of their OTL casulties till 11.11.1918 till armistice-day (10.11.1916), the germans reach 80% of their casulties. 
The USA made lot of money by selling stuff - also to neutrals like the netherlands, who are used by germany, also like italy - another country that earned lots of money by reselling stuff. 

Germany suffered by the distant blocade, but because they won the war they had no huge human losses as OTL. The spanish flu is a local american event, costing 150.000 casulties. 

Submarines helped the germans to achive this, because they could sink a lot merchants in the mediteran and the channel, compared to OTL they achived similar casulties as OTL (till oct 1916). But they never left the "right side" because the kaiser was carefully - some events had still damaged german reputation, also the first use of gas in july 1915 and the "rape of belgium" are on the negative side of the german empire.

The conditions of peace with japan are difficulty, only in september 1917 they make peace - japan pay a great sum of money for tsingtau, but also is forced to give back Pelieu. But they keep the other colonial areas they took.

The australian and newzealanders are very upset, because they had to return german colonies, in the southafricas there were even assaults about the fact that they had to return Deutsch-Südwest-Africa.

In germany the SPD demand the promised changes, that will cost germany around 2-3 years of troubles, till there will be a less powerfull kaiser, a more democratic parliament but most important the prussian 3-step-election-system is gone. 
The SPD never splits, Lenin stay in Switzerland.
In russia the tsar was forced to abdict for his son, with his uncle ruling together with the duma.

Now the questions:
With the german navy causing significant victories - how will the building/Planning of the new fleet go on?What will be the reaction of the Royal Navy, they lost significant battleships (even if more older DN and first-try-Super-DN instead of QE-class) for no real succsess.
Germany faced lots of sunken cruisers, but only minor casulties in big ships.The "Kleinkrieg" in the channel made clear that T-boats and light cruisers are needed.

But a lot money is needed for reforms - so you have not much money from 1917-22, after that you have around 100 million Goldmark for new battleships, 50 million for cruisers and 30 million for destroyers, 20 million for other stuff.

The Royal Navy will get "unlimited" ressources to rebuild/expand their fleet - till 1919, after that they lack the money.
UK reach 1913-level in 1917, france in 1927, germany in 1918, austria in 1921, russia in 1923, the osmans in 1916.

Alliances:Germany is tied to AH, bulgaria, the osman empire and the new baltic state, there exist troubles with the new kingdom of poland, but that has an austrian ruler.
Austria is allied with germany, and bulgaria. It is not friendly to italy, but still peacefull. AH face a lot of troubles from 1916-1924, in these years the new kaiser start to reform the country.

Great Britain will build up its military - a larger standing army, a much larger navy, modern weapons
France  is flat broken, the ill man of europe (got this from the osmans). Instable, hunted by destruction, no reparations and devasted areas in their "core" area. The loss of Bethune hurts em, esp. because they also have to finance the german invalids and have to buy their own ore (from Bethune). So the french fleet is reduced and outdated, this is something italy is happy, because they finish their caricciolas.

AH face internal struggle, so they have no meaning to expand their navy... they modernise some yards, but overall they build t-boats, subs, some light cruisers, but also they push for land based naval planes. 

The osmans oder 6 modern battleships in german yards, these are happy to deliver these ships.Also modern cruisers, destroyers, submarines... the russian navy is back much earlier in the black sea as they had thought.


So - what does the USA, what will the british do, what will the germans build?

[lordroel]

Apr 3, 2018 16:18:59 GMT steffen said:

Hi,

i read some interesting timelines quite some time ago, for sure they were german-wanks like hell, but they gave me some ideas

First Change: the small german cruiser in the baltic is destroyed without capturing the german codebooks.

Let´s say in December 1914 v.Ingenohl use his one-time-chance to hurt a part of the Grand fleet.
To achive this we accept that the Royal Navy loose 7-8 battleships as total loss (either by german gunfire or beeing sunk later by flooding/submarines/mines - it doesn´t matter. the core idea is that the german plan is succsessfull - a part of the Royal Navy was destroyed) for 1 german BB sunk. In light forces the germans loose 10 destroyer and 4 cruisers, the RN loose 20 destroyers and 8 cruisers. We need such big victory for the balance moved significant into the german camp.

Sometimes in mid 1915 another clash - similar to Jutland happens, with OTL results, esp. with some more luck for the germans (OTL Tiger and Barham survived damages that otherwise could have been deadly). So 5 main ships for the Royal navy lost compared to 1 german battle cruiser and 1 Pre-DN. Because Lützow isn´t ready the germans loose Moltke - the structural failure of the german BC is similar, before A-turret they lack the protection - for their torpedo room.

Also, with some more sense, the corps send into the east aren´t send, Tannenberg is fought without Hindenburg and so it is von Prittwitz who achived this victory (OTL these forces had no impact on this battle, but they were missed in the "race to the sea")
With these additional forces the germans "win" that battle, still with high casulties but the frontline end in Boulogne-sur-mar, from here via Arras to Saint Quentin.

Because of this the logistics of the Entente is more stretched, more engagements in the channel (germans own the southern side), Belgium is 100% occupied.

Sometimes in 1915 - after massive assaults by the Entente to push back the germans in this area both sides are fully exhausted.
Casulties are 10-20%higher on the german side, 30% on the french and 20% on the british side.
So no Galipoli-invasion was planned or done, italy did not join the Entente (overall the CP looked stronger).

In the west germany stood on the defence from nov14 to february16, keeping more or less its frontline (pushed back at some points for 5-12km)
In the same time the "Kleinkrieg" at the coast forced the british to evacuate 1/3 of the Citizens of London (as it seems to be accepted that without the very important coastal traffic the supply-line for the british can´t be kept supplied by railway-only. 

Also higher losses for trans-channel-shipping.

In the east the large operation that took poland happens, the russian armies suffer worse as OTL (30-40% at this time), the austrians have lighter casulties (10-15%), the germans higher (20% higher as OTL).
In the second half of 1915 the germans took moon-island, in an engagement with russian ships they achived some succsess, sinking Rurik without losses and the austrian-hungarians and bulgarians take out serbia. Greece stay neutral, the osmans could move more forces into the southwest and southeast, minimizing british advance here. 


The german spring operation 1916 in the east cause the russians another general retreat - partly a full breakdown of the russian armed forces. The baltics fell into german hads in may 1916.

In the west the battle of Verdun - the "Blutmühle" happens similar to OTL (february 1916), stretching the french forced thin.
Some battle with a new army of the british fail because overall the Entente is weaker as OTL. 

In september 1916 germany make peace with belgium, offering reparations for damage - but want the belgian congo and basing rights for german warships.
France - in some very bloody counterattacks face rebellions similar to OTL 1917. 
In the east the tsar get replaced 1 year earlier and a republican government offers peace at the current borders, just weeks after romania declared war to russia.

The peace of  13th october 1916 in Stockholm ends the war in the east, there is a baltic dutchy created, a german puppet but with a demilitarized border. Also a kingdom of poland, out of russian poland and some additional ukraine areas. Russia pay reparations, some in gold (that is transfered by germany to belgium) and rawmaterials.

The western forces recognize that the whole might of germany AND Austria-Hungaria could be moved against their shakened frontline, so they decide to offer terms.


February 11th 1917 ends the great war with the peace of frankfurt (the kaiser demanded that location)
Germany get back all colonies they lost to france and great britain. France has to give up french polynesia to germany (because japan had occupied german bases in the central pacific).
Germany recive madagascar and walfishbay from great britain.
Germany get all treaties accepted by the french and british.
Germany occupy the area from bethune (with its mines) for 30 years
France give up some smaller colonial areas to round the new german congo and at the atlantic western coast, esp. near morocco.

France pay reparations for german wounded soldiers (pensions) for 30 years, but no more as 3% of its BIP. Otherwise there are no restrictions or limitations.
The germans want peace, but could not enforce the french to remove their army, france want to fight on but without any ressources and no cash and credits they have to accept that peace.

Serbia is reduced to a internal rump state, fully responsible for that war. Bulgaria gets large parts of it, Austria-Hungaria recives reparations and the right to explore the baku-region for 25 years (they had oil and they want to explore that)

The osmans get some areas back from russia (minor border corrections), but get the russian zone of influence in persia. Quwait and cyprus are back in osman hands, but the osmans have to stay outside the sinai-desert. Some local rebellions got slaughtered otherwise a T.E. Lawrence died in a turkish prison. 

Now - with this war - still bloody - france and uk have overall 85% of their OTL casulties till 11.11.1918 till armistice-day (10.11.1916), the germans reach 80% of their casulties. 
The USA made lot of money by selling stuff - also to neutrals like the netherlands, who are used by germany, also like italy - another country that earned lots of money by reselling stuff. 

Germany suffered by the distant blocade, but because they won the war they had no huge human losses as OTL. The spanish flu is a local american event, costing 150.000 casulties. 

Submarines helped the germans to achive this, because they could sink a lot merchants in the mediteran and the channel, compared to OTL they achived similar casulties as OTL (till oct 1916). But they never left the "right side" because the kaiser was carefully - some events had still damaged german reputation, also the first use of gas in july 1915 and the "rape of belgium" are on the negative side of the german empire.

The conditions of peace with japan are difficulty, only in september 1917 they make peace - japan pay a great sum of money for tsingtau, but also is forced to give back Pelieu. But they keep the other colonial areas they took.

The australian and newzealanders are very upset, because they had to return german colonies, in the southafricas there were even assaults about the fact that they had to return Deutsch-Südwest-Africa.

In germany the SPD demand the promised changes, that will cost germany around 2-3 years of troubles, till there will be a less powerfull kaiser, a more democratic parliament but most important the prussian 3-step-election-system is gone. 
The SPD never splits, Lenin stay in Switzerland.
In russia the tsar was forced to abdict for his son, with his uncle ruling together with the duma.

Now the questions:
With the german navy causing significant victories - how will the building/Planning of the new fleet go on?What will be the reaction of the Royal Navy, they lost significant battleships (even if more older DN and first-try-Super-DN instead of QE-class) for no real succsess.
Germany faced lots of sunken cruisers, but only minor casulties in big ships.The "Kleinkrieg" in the channel made clear that T-boats and light cruisers are needed.

But a lot money is needed for reforms - so you have not much money from 1917-22, after that you have around 100 million Goldmark for new battleships, 50 million for cruisers and 30 million for destroyers, 20 million for other stuff.

The Royal Navy will get "unlimited" ressources to rebuild/expand their fleet - till 1919, after that they lack the money.
UK reach 1913-level in 1917, france in 1927, germany in 1918, austria in 1921, russia in 1923, the osmans in 1916.

Alliances:Germany is tied to AH, bulgaria, the osman empire and the new baltic state, there exist troubles with the new kingdom of poland, but that has an austrian ruler.
Austria is allied with germany, and bulgaria. It is not friendly to italy, but still peacefull. AH face a lot of troubles from 1916-1924, in these years the new kaiser start to reform the country.

Great Britain will build up its military - a larger standing army, a much larger navy, modern weapons
France  is flat broken, the ill man of europe (got this from the osmans). Instable, hunted by destruction, no reparations and devasted areas in their "core" area. The loss of Bethune hurts em, esp. because they also have to finance the german invalids and have to buy their own ore (from Bethune). So the french fleet is reduced and outdated, this is something italy is happy, because they finish their caricciolas.

AH face internal struggle, so they have no meaning to expand their navy... they modernise some yards, but overall they build t-boats, subs, some light cruisers, but also they push for land based naval planes. 

The osmans oder 6 modern battleships in german yards, these are happy to deliver these ships.Also modern cruisers, destroyers, submarines... the russian navy is back much earlier in the black sea as they had thought.


So - what does the USA, what will the british do, what will the germans build?

Will the war still end in 1919, ore not, because i would like to see the Bayern-class battleships and L 20e α-class battleship in service. 

[steffen]

Apr 3, 2018 16:23:01 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 3, 2018 16:18:59 GMT steffen said:

Hi,

i read some interesting timelines quite some time ago, for sure they were german-wanks like hell, but they gave me some ideas

First Change: the small german cruiser in the baltic is destroyed without capturing the german codebooks.

Let´s say in December 1914 v.Ingenohl use his one-time-chance to hurt a part of the Grand fleet.
To achive this we accept that the Royal Navy loose 7-8 battleships as total loss (either by german gunfire or beeing sunk later by flooding/submarines/mines - it doesn´t matter. the core idea is that the german plan is succsessfull - a part of the Royal Navy was destroyed) for 1 german BB sunk. In light forces the germans loose 10 destroyer and 4 cruisers, the RN loose 20 destroyers and 8 cruisers. We need such big victory for the balance moved significant into the german camp.

Sometimes in mid 1915 another clash - similar to Jutland happens, with OTL results, esp. with some more luck for the germans (OTL Tiger and Barham survived damages that otherwise could have been deadly). So 5 main ships for the Royal navy lost compared to 1 german battle cruiser and 1 Pre-DN. Because Lützow isn´t ready the germans loose Moltke - the structural failure of the german BC is similar, before A-turret they lack the protection - for their torpedo room.

Also, with some more sense, the corps send into the east aren´t send, Tannenberg is fought without Hindenburg and so it is von Prittwitz who achived this victory (OTL these forces had no impact on this battle, but they were missed in the "race to the sea")
With these additional forces the germans "win" that battle, still with high casulties but the frontline end in Boulogne-sur-mar, from here via Arras to Saint Quentin.

Because of this the logistics of the Entente is more stretched, more engagements in the channel (germans own the southern side), Belgium is 100% occupied.

Sometimes in 1915 - after massive assaults by the Entente to push back the germans in this area both sides are fully exhausted.
Casulties are 10-20%higher on the german side, 30% on the french and 20% on the british side.
So no Galipoli-invasion was planned or done, italy did not join the Entente (overall the CP looked stronger).

In the west germany stood on the defence from nov14 to february16, keeping more or less its frontline (pushed back at some points for 5-12km)
In the same time the "Kleinkrieg" at the coast forced the british to evacuate 1/3 of the Citizens of London (as it seems to be accepted that without the very important coastal traffic the supply-line for the british can´t be kept supplied by railway-only. 

Also higher losses for trans-channel-shipping.

In the east the large operation that took poland happens, the russian armies suffer worse as OTL (30-40% at this time), the austrians have lighter casulties (10-15%), the germans higher (20% higher as OTL).
In the second half of 1915 the germans took moon-island, in an engagement with russian ships they achived some succsess, sinking Rurik without losses and the austrian-hungarians and bulgarians take out serbia. Greece stay neutral, the osmans could move more forces into the southwest and southeast, minimizing british advance here. 


The german spring operation 1916 in the east cause the russians another general retreat - partly a full breakdown of the russian armed forces. The baltics fell into german hads in may 1916.

In the west the battle of Verdun - the "Blutmühle" happens similar to OTL (february 1916), stretching the french forced thin.
Some battle with a new army of the british fail because overall the Entente is weaker as OTL. 

In september 1916 germany make peace with belgium, offering reparations for damage - but want the belgian congo and basing rights for german warships.
France - in some very bloody counterattacks face rebellions similar to OTL 1917. 
In the east the tsar get replaced 1 year earlier and a republican government offers peace at the current borders, just weeks after romania declared war to russia.

The peace of  13th october 1916 in Stockholm ends the war in the east, there is a baltic dutchy created, a german puppet but with a demilitarized border. Also a kingdom of poland, out of russian poland and some additional ukraine areas. Russia pay reparations, some in gold (that is transfered by germany to belgium) and rawmaterials.

The western forces recognize that the whole might of germany AND Austria-Hungaria could be moved against their shakened frontline, so they decide to offer terms.


February 11th 1917 ends the great war with the peace of frankfurt (the kaiser demanded that location)
Germany get back all colonies they lost to france and great britain. France has to give up french polynesia to germany (because japan had occupied german bases in the central pacific).
Germany recive madagascar and walfishbay from great britain.
Germany get all treaties accepted by the french and british.
Germany occupy the area from bethune (with its mines) for 30 years
France give up some smaller colonial areas to round the new german congo and at the atlantic western coast, esp. near morocco.

France pay reparations for german wounded soldiers (pensions) for 30 years, but no more as 3% of its BIP. Otherwise there are no restrictions or limitations.
The germans want peace, but could not enforce the french to remove their army, france want to fight on but without any ressources and no cash and credits they have to accept that peace.

Serbia is reduced to a internal rump state, fully responsible for that war. Bulgaria gets large parts of it, Austria-Hungaria recives reparations and the right to explore the baku-region for 25 years (they had oil and they want to explore that)

The osmans get some areas back from russia (minor border corrections), but get the russian zone of influence in persia. Quwait and cyprus are back in osman hands, but the osmans have to stay outside the sinai-desert. Some local rebellions got slaughtered otherwise a T.E. Lawrence died in a turkish prison. 

Now - with this war - still bloody - france and uk have overall 85% of their OTL casulties till 11.11.1918 till armistice-day (10.11.1916), the germans reach 80% of their casulties. 
The USA made lot of money by selling stuff - also to neutrals like the netherlands, who are used by germany, also like italy - another country that earned lots of money by reselling stuff. 

Germany suffered by the distant blocade, but because they won the war they had no huge human losses as OTL. The spanish flu is a local american event, costing 150.000 casulties. 

Submarines helped the germans to achive this, because they could sink a lot merchants in the mediteran and the channel, compared to OTL they achived similar casulties as OTL (till oct 1916). But they never left the "right side" because the kaiser was carefully - some events had still damaged german reputation, also the first use of gas in july 1915 and the "rape of belgium" are on the negative side of the german empire.

The conditions of peace with japan are difficulty, only in september 1917 they make peace - japan pay a great sum of money for tsingtau, but also is forced to give back Pelieu. But they keep the other colonial areas they took.

The australian and newzealanders are very upset, because they had to return german colonies, in the southafricas there were even assaults about the fact that they had to return Deutsch-Südwest-Africa.

In germany the SPD demand the promised changes, that will cost germany around 2-3 years of troubles, till there will be a less powerfull kaiser, a more democratic parliament but most important the prussian 3-step-election-system is gone. 
The SPD never splits, Lenin stay in Switzerland.
In russia the tsar was forced to abdict for his son, with his uncle ruling together with the duma.

Now the questions:
With the german navy causing significant victories - how will the building/Planning of the new fleet go on?What will be the reaction of the Royal Navy, they lost significant battleships (even if more older DN and first-try-Super-DN instead of QE-class) for no real succsess.
Germany faced lots of sunken cruisers, but only minor casulties in big ships.The "Kleinkrieg" in the channel made clear that T-boats and light cruisers are needed.

But a lot money is needed for reforms - so you have not much money from 1917-22, after that you have around 100 million Goldmark for new battleships, 50 million for cruisers and 30 million for destroyers, 20 million for other stuff.

The Royal Navy will get "unlimited" ressources to rebuild/expand their fleet - till 1919, after that they lack the money.
UK reach 1913-level in 1917, france in 1927, germany in 1918, austria in 1921, russia in 1923, the osmans in 1916.

Alliances:Germany is tied to AH, bulgaria, the osman empire and the new baltic state, there exist troubles with the new kingdom of poland, but that has an austrian ruler.
Austria is allied with germany, and bulgaria. It is not friendly to italy, but still peacefull. AH face a lot of troubles from 1916-1924, in these years the new kaiser start to reform the country.

Great Britain will build up its military - a larger standing army, a much larger navy, modern weapons
France  is flat broken, the ill man of europe (got this from the osmans). Instable, hunted by destruction, no reparations and devasted areas in their "core" area. The loss of Bethune hurts em, esp. because they also have to finance the german invalids and have to buy their own ore (from Bethune). So the french fleet is reduced and outdated, this is something italy is happy, because they finish their caricciolas.

AH face internal struggle, so they have no meaning to expand their navy... they modernise some yards, but overall they build t-boats, subs, some light cruisers, but also they push for land based naval planes. 

The osmans oder 6 modern battleships in german yards, these are happy to deliver these ships.Also modern cruisers, destroyers, submarines... the russian navy is back much earlier in the black sea as they had thought.


So - what does the USA, what will the british do, what will the germans build?

Will the war still end in 1919, ore not, because i would like to see the Bayern-class battleships and L 20e α-class battleship in service. 

War ends in 1916 (armistice asked by the entente at october 16), but the navy had done much more (2 significant victories, one in dec 14 and one in 15 - jutland 1 year earlier), also lots of small engagements in the channel (germany occupy the southern part till south to boulogne-sur-mar, so they could move lots of tboats and cruisers to the channel, closing it for the british coastal traffic to london - that was one major base for the entente asking for terms (british internal structures stretched beyond the breaking point, lots of very unhappy londoners who are forced to move out (there exist suggestions that with the coastal traffic closed 1/3 of them have to leave the city! if that happens in late 1914 you have 3 million british citicens forced out of london for 2 years! Also this stretches the railroads thin in uk, force em to build more and more effective railroads and double lanes internal (as they did OTL post ww1), to fuel the city even without coastal traffic.

So the two PODs are
a.) germany win the race to the sea
b.) the navy have significant impact in the war in the east (baltic) and the west.

THe bayern would be build/finished, the mackensens and ersatz-yorks too.
But after that germany need building holidays. To help them i placed an osman job with 6 modern battleships (2 L20alpha, 4 even larger with 42cm-guns, 27kn, oil fired, around 47.000ts - infact the biggest battleships in the world in 1920 (first layed down).)

Germany will only start their own new ship building program about 1922/23, because they have internal problems, need to reach their colonies, esp. the new ones, internal struggle with their social reforms, etc.
They could propably build 1,5 battleships per year from 1922 on, before they need to modernize (lightly) their more moern ones, move from coal to oil, deck armor, bulges, such stuff. But nothing big, their yards build for the osmans, propably also for the dutch battleships.

Germany won the battleship-engagements with UK, so everybody thinks the germans have the better ships.

Feel free to plan your german and british fleet based on that plot.

[lordroel]

Apr 3, 2018 17:48:57 GMT steffen said:

Apr 3, 2018 16:23:01 GMT lordroel said:

Will the war still end in 1919, ore not, because i would like to see the Bayern-class battleships and L 20e α-class battleship in service. 

War ends in 1916 (armistice asked by the entente at october 16), but the navy had done much more (2 significant victories, one in dec 14 and one in 15 - jutland 1 year earlier), also lots of small engagements in the channel (germany occupy the southern part till south to boulogne-sur-mar, so they could move lots of tboats and cruisers to the channel, closing it for the british coastal traffic to london - that was one major base for the entente asking for terms (british internal structures stretched beyond the breaking point, lots of very unhappy londoners who are forced to move out (there exist suggestions that with the coastal traffic closed 1/3 of them have to leave the city! if that happens in late 1914 you have 3 million british citicens forced out of london for 2 years! Also this stretches the railroads thin in uk, force em to build more and more effective railroads and double lanes internal (as they did OTL post ww1), to fuel the city even without coastal traffic.

So the two PODs are
a.) germany win the race to the sea
b.) the navy have significant impact in the war in the east (baltic) and the west.

THe bayern would be build/finished, the mackensens and ersatz-yorks too.
But after that germany need building holidays. To help them i placed an osman job with 6 modern battleships (2 L20alpha, 4 even larger with 42cm-guns, 27kn, oil fired, around 47.000ts - infact the biggest battleships in the world in 1920 (first layed down).)

Germany will only start their own new ship building program about 1922/23, because they have internal problems, need to reach their colonies, esp. the new ones, internal struggle with their social reforms, etc.
They could propably build 1,5 battleships per year from 1922 on, before they need to modernize (lightly) their more moern ones, move from coal to oil, deck armor, bulges, such stuff. But nothing big, their yards build for the osmans, propably also for the dutch battleships.

Germany won the battleship-engagements with UK, so everybody thinks the germans have the better ships.

Feel free to plan your german and british fleet based on that plot.

Found a nice list of German ships, in the mean time i have to think. 

[steffen]

Well, very nice pictures.

I have not given my opinion about german ship building till now:

Here a first draft:
1.) older Hex-Ships - the survivors will stay in the baltics, to check the russian fleet, support the baltic states. Overall only slightly modernized (raised guns, more AA guns). They will stay in the fleet for some years (War ends in 1917, so maybe 1921-24?), but at the end very aging...
2,) newer Hex-Ships - the same. Here you have at last 30,5cm-guns, so i think they could stay till 1928, a bit more modernized around 1920, maybe replacement of the coal and switch to oil firing, but otherwise only slightly modernized (remove the torpedo tubes, a bit more deck protection, raise the guns (Range of 27.000m max is propably needed), if they do more - because they want em in their colonies (for a decade) they could remove 2 turrets, put in much more AA guns, remove the old 15cm-guns in the casemattes... but again, keep the costs as low as possible for these old ships.
3.) Kaisers/Koenigs: Here i see an early modernisation - between 1918-20, they all go in the yards, they get their boats removed, rafts replace em. They add "lots" of AA-guns, propably 8x1 88mm AA-gun, maybe even 10x1 88mm, later 10x1 105mm-AA-gun, additional heavy MG and later 20mm cannons... the Koenigs could - second refit - loose their central turret and switch to diesels in this scenario. Then they get 50-60mm deck protection, bulges, maybe a false bow (length raise to 210m?), but again, only around 1925-26 this would happen. So first step: 18-20: Raise guns, switch to oil firing, AA-guns, boats get replaced. Second step (25-26 - 1-2 years of yard): remove a turret(Koenigs) or two (Kaisers), use the saved weight for more protection from above and also use the space below to build in a diesel-engine-drive... the goal is a "weak" battleship with either 3x2 or 4x2 30,5cm-guns, some secondaries and AA-guns, a range about 10.000nm at 14kn and a max speed of 25-26kn. If that isn´t doable, they will stay in stage 1-conditions and get a replacement
4.) Bayern-class: These ships are "brand new", but need some improvements... so raise the guns, put additional AA guns on them (19/20)... the first improvement is to improve deck-protection (+30mm, maybe +50mm), add bulges to the ships, switch to oil-firing. Speed fell to 19-20kn max (from 21,5-22kn): this would happen in 21/22.
Second - larger - rebuild around 27/28: Here you replace the old machinery by new diesels, enlarge the ship by 20m (a new bow section) to compensate the broader ship, so you would get 70.000 HP for 24-25kn max., Range 15.000nm at 14kn. In this stage propably the casematte-guns are removed, also the torpedo tubes. They get a new DP-150mm-gun, that could be ready around 1928 (and finally working after 10-12 years of development). These could be in single mounts and twin-turrets, so basically a 4x2 38cm, 4x2 + 6x1 150mm DP-guns, some 40mm Bofors in twin and singles, also lots of 20mm guns... These ships will be expensive to rebuild (around 50% of the original costs) but still very inferior designs.
5.) Mackensen-class: these ships (3+3 (1 less as OTL, because Blücher did not get sunk in my scenario)) with 4x2 35cm, 27,5kn, 300mm belt (second batch), 275mm belt (first batch) are true fast battleships. Finished between 1917 (late) and 1920... the core of the german High fleet.
Unfortunatly, they need expensive rebuilds, the turrets get raised guns, the casematte guns will be reduced to 10 (5 on each side), 88mm-AA-guns (8x1, later 6x2) will be put on these ships. the last 2 ships will be build with oil-only-engines, also a more modern version, reaching 29kn.
Range - around 7000nm at 14kn, later improved to 9000nm at 14kn.
First rebuild: Remove the casematte guns. This happens between 1926 and 1931... in this rebuild all coal firing is removed by oil, bulges and deck armor (+50mm-> 80-110mm), so they reach 27kn max after rebuild. Weaponary: 8x35cm (4x2), 8x15cm (4x2), 8x105mm (4x2), 16x40mm Bofors (4x2,8x1), 20x 20mm (10x2), 4 torpedotubes, 12 torpedos (still - germany was as stupid).
Second rebuild: Aging engines are completly removed by diesel engines, 100.000 HP, 28kn, 4x2 35cm, 20x150mm DP (10x2), 32x40mm Bofors (4x4, 8x2), 16x20mm (4x4), removed torpedo tubes, improved deck armor, bulges.
Expensive rebuild, still inferior ships - from 1934-40.

Older Battlecruisers:
the 28cm-gun-ships will be sold to the osmans.,
the Derflingers (als 3) get raised guns, a bit more deck protection (+30mm), more AA guns (from 4x1 88mm to 12x1 88mm, 12x Heavy MG)...(1919-21)
Switch to oil firing (between 22-24), raise the range

Only modernisation: 1930: Remove the casematte guns, remove the AA-guns - replace by 20 128mm DP-guns (new ones, the standard-gun for non-battleships, cruisers, destroyers, etc.) (10x2), add 16x40mm Boforts (4x4) and 16x20mm (8x2, later 4x4).
Deck protection + 20 (total +50mm), diesel engines for range (100.000 HP for 28kn), bulges, new above-deck torpedo tubes (4x3 60cm), Range - 14.000nm at 14kn, speed 28,5kn, Airconditioning... for tropical use suitable... again no real battleship, but superior to any cruiser, fast enough to run away from most battleships.

A new battleship design will be develoted and hot debates will errupt, between 1918 and 1925 around 20 designs will be calculated.
Something along a new design will be created around 1925, 4 ships in first batch, 4 ships in the second to replace the aging ships.
Building time: 4 years, costs - around 100mio Goldmark each
8 42cm-guns, 4x2, 24x150mm DP-guns (12x2), 20x40mm (5x4), 20x20mm (10x2), Deck armor 110-140mm, Side: Multi-Layer defence, 300mm Belt, 4 screws, mixed drive: 1st: for 22kn 40.000 HP on 2 screws, additional 80.000 HP for 2 screws Steam engines, max.speed 29,5kn, 50.000ts light, 57.000ts full, 265x38x9m, 2200 crew.
Only 4 will be build (Because real costs are 130-150mio Goldmark each)...

The major costs for these ships are:
Locks of wilhelmshaven and other areas have to be enlarged, the Kaiser-Wilhelm-channel is enlarged, able to take ships till 45m broad, 10m deep and 300m length (first ship - SMS Kaiser Wilhelm-II, a fleet carrier of 1950 with 280x43x9,5m and 78.000ts was nearly to big for this)

Overall the real use of battleships is heated discussed, the Battleship admirals demand more and more new toys, the cruiser/destroyer-fans demanded much more of these usefull ships, the submariners for 300 subs, all modernised.

Ironically the german fleet will have around 1940 the oldest ships with the USA, but japan, italy and UK have much more modern and stronger ships ready for use.

(that is my impression about this situation - with germany lacking the money, then they build "white elephants" usefull in traditional engagements, but way to expensive and to slow. With only 4 units they lack the support of the other "modernised" battleships. With enough range to break through these ships still can´t hope to significant reduce the Royal Navy (these have around 20 modern battleships with 16" and 18"-guns, from 62.000ts to 75.000ts (think about Yamato on steroids, 12x 18", 30kn, 457mm Belt, 250mm deck, 24x5,25" DP-guns, 280x38x14m)

[eurowatch]

Apr 4, 2018 12:43:27 GMT steffen said:

Well, very nice pictures.

I have not given my opinion about german ship building till now:

Here a first draft:
1.) older Hex-Ships - the survivors will stay in the baltics, to check the russian fleet, support the baltic states. Overall only slightly modernized (raised guns, more AA guns). They will stay in the fleet for some years (War ends in 1917, so maybe 1921-24?), but at the end very aging...
2,) newer Hex-Ships - the same. Here you have at last 30,5cm-guns, so i think they could stay till 1928, a bit more modernized around 1920, maybe replacement of the coal and switch to oil firing, but otherwise only slightly modernized (remove the torpedo tubes, a bit more deck protection, raise the guns (Range of 27.000m max is propably needed), if they do more - because they want em in their colonies (for a decade) they could remove 2 turrets, put in much more AA guns, remove the old 15cm-guns in the casemattes... but again, keep the costs as low as possible for these old ships.
3.) Kaisers/Koenigs: Here i see an early modernisation - between 1918-20, they all go in the yards, they get their boats removed, rafts replace em. They add "lots" of AA-guns, propably 8x1 88mm AA-gun, maybe even 10x1 88mm, later 10x1 105mm-AA-gun, additional heavy MG and later 20mm cannons... the Koenigs could - second refit - loose their central turret and switch to diesels in this scenario. Then they get 50-60mm deck protection, bulges, maybe a false bow (length raise to 210m?), but again, only around 1925-26 this would happen. So first step: 18-20: Raise guns, switch to oil firing, AA-guns, boats get replaced. Second step (25-26 - 1-2 years of yard): remove a turret(Koenigs) or two (Kaisers), use the saved weight for more protection from above and also use the space below to build in a diesel-engine-drive... the goal is a "weak" battleship with either 3x2 or 4x2 30,5cm-guns, some secondaries and AA-guns, a range about 10.000nm at 14kn and a max speed of 25-26kn. If that isn´t doable, they will stay in stage 1-conditions and get a replacement
4.) Bayern-class: These ships are "brand new", but need some improvements... so raise the guns, put additional AA guns on them (19/20)... the first improvement is to improve deck-protection (+30mm, maybe +50mm), add bulges to the ships, switch to oil-firing. Speed fell to 19-20kn max (from 21,5-22kn): this would happen in 21/22.
Second - larger - rebuild around 27/28: Here you replace the old machinery by new diesels, enlarge the ship by 20m (a new bow section) to compensate the broader ship, so you would get 70.000 HP for 24-25kn max., Range 15.000nm at 14kn. In this stage propably the casematte-guns are removed, also the torpedo tubes. They get a new DP-150mm-gun, that could be ready around 1928 (and finally working after 10-12 years of development). These could be in single mounts and twin-turrets, so basically a 4x2 38cm, 4x2 + 6x1 150mm DP-guns, some 40mm Bofors in twin and singles, also lots of 20mm guns... These ships will be expensive to rebuild (around 50% of the original costs) but still very inferior designs.
5.) Mackensen-class: these ships (3+3 (1 less as OTL, because Blücher did not get sunk in my scenario)) with 4x2 35cm, 27,5kn, 300mm belt (second batch), 275mm belt (first batch) are true fast battleships. Finished between 1917 (late) and 1920... the core of the german High fleet.
Unfortunatly, they need expensive rebuilds, the turrets get raised guns, the casematte guns will be reduced to 10 (5 on each side), 88mm-AA-guns (8x1, later 6x2) will be put on these ships. the last 2 ships will be build with oil-only-engines, also a more modern version, reaching 29kn.
Range - around 7000nm at 14kn, later improved to 9000nm at 14kn.
First rebuild: Remove the casematte guns. This happens between 1926 and 1931... in this rebuild all coal firing is removed by oil, bulges and deck armor (+50mm-> 80-110mm), so they reach 27kn max after rebuild. Weaponary: 8x35cm (4x2), 8x15cm (4x2), 8x105mm (4x2), 16x40mm Bofors (4x2,8x1), 20x 20mm (10x2), 4 torpedotubes, 12 torpedos (still - germany was as stupid).
Second rebuild: Aging engines are completly removed by diesel engines, 100.000 HP, 28kn, 4x2 35cm, 20x150mm DP (10x2), 32x40mm Bofors (4x4, 8x2), 16x20mm (4x4), removed torpedo tubes, improved deck armor, bulges.
Expensive rebuild, still inferior ships - from 1934-40.

Older Battlecruisers:
the 28cm-gun-ships will be sold to the osmans.,
the Derflingers (als 3) get raised guns, a bit more deck protection (+30mm), more AA guns (from 4x1 88mm to 12x1 88mm, 12x Heavy MG)...(1919-21)
Switch to oil firing (between 22-24), raise the range

Only modernisation: 1930: Remove the casematte guns, remove the AA-guns - replace by 20 128mm DP-guns (new ones, the standard-gun for non-battleships, cruisers, destroyers, etc.) (10x2), add 16x40mm Boforts (4x4) and 16x20mm (8x2, later 4x4).
Deck protection + 20 (total +50mm), diesel engines for range (100.000 HP for 28kn), bulges, new above-deck torpedo tubes (4x3 60cm), Range - 14.000nm at 14kn, speed 28,5kn, Airconditioning... for tropical use suitable... again no real battleship, but superior to any cruiser, fast enough to run away from most battleships.

A new battleship design will be develoted and hot debates will errupt, between 1918 and 1925 around 20 designs will be calculated.
Something along a new design will be created around 1925, 4 ships in first batch, 4 ships in the second to replace the aging ships.
Building time: 4 years, costs - around 100mio Goldmark each
8 42cm-guns, 4x2, 24x150mm DP-guns (12x2), 20x40mm (5x4), 20x20mm (10x2), Deck armor 110-140mm, Side: Multi-Layer defence, 300mm Belt, 4 screws, mixed drive: 1st: for 22kn 40.000 HP on 2 screws, additional 80.000 HP for 2 screws Steam engines, max.speed 29,5kn, 50.000ts light, 57.000ts full, 265x38x9m, 2200 crew.
Only 4 will be build (Because real costs are 130-150mio Goldmark each)...

The major costs for these ships are:
Locks of wilhelmshaven and other areas have to be enlarged, the Kaiser-Wilhelm-channel is enlarged, able to take ships till 45m broad, 10m deep and 300m length (first ship - SMS Kaiser Wilhelm-II, a fleet carrier of 1950 with 280x43x9,5m and 78.000ts was nearly to big for this)

Overall the real use of battleships is heated discussed, the Battleship admirals demand more and more new toys, the cruiser/destroyer-fans demanded much more of these usefull ships, the submariners for 300 subs, all modernised.

Ironically the german fleet will have around 1940 the oldest ships with the USA, but japan, italy and UK have much more modern and stronger ships ready for use.

(that is my impression about this situation - with germany lacking the money, then they build "white elephants" usefull in traditional engagements, but way to expensive and to slow. With only 4 units they lack the support of the other "modernised" battleships. With enough range to break through these ships still can´t hope to significant reduce the Royal Navy (these have around 20 modern battleships with 16" and 18"-guns, from 62.000ts to 75.000ts (think about Yamato on steroids, 12x 18", 30kn, 457mm Belt, 250mm deck, 24x5,25" DP-guns, 280x38x14m)

Personally, I think that if the British and French are building modern Battleships Germany is going to prefer building new Battleships instead of constantly modernising their old ones. That would be both cheaper and more practical in the long run. Also, might we also be seeing a German carrier program that culminates in them having fleet carriers availeble by 1940? 

[lordroel]

Apr 4, 2018 13:31:09 GMT eurowatch said:

Apr 4, 2018 12:43:27 GMT steffen said:

Well, very nice pictures.

I have not given my opinion about german ship building till now:

Here a first draft:
1.) older Hex-Ships - the survivors will stay in the baltics, to check the russian fleet, support the baltic states. Overall only slightly modernized (raised guns, more AA guns). They will stay in the fleet for some years (War ends in 1917, so maybe 1921-24?), but at the end very aging...
2,) newer Hex-Ships - the same. Here you have at last 30,5cm-guns, so i think they could stay till 1928, a bit more modernized around 1920, maybe replacement of the coal and switch to oil firing, but otherwise only slightly modernized (remove the torpedo tubes, a bit more deck protection, raise the guns (Range of 27.000m max is propably needed), if they do more - because they want em in their colonies (for a decade) they could remove 2 turrets, put in much more AA guns, remove the old 15cm-guns in the casemattes... but again, keep the costs as low as possible for these old ships.
3.) Kaisers/Koenigs: Here i see an early modernisation - between 1918-20, they all go in the yards, they get their boats removed, rafts replace em. They add "lots" of AA-guns, propably 8x1 88mm AA-gun, maybe even 10x1 88mm, later 10x1 105mm-AA-gun, additional heavy MG and later 20mm cannons... the Koenigs could - second refit - loose their central turret and switch to diesels in this scenario. Then they get 50-60mm deck protection, bulges, maybe a false bow (length raise to 210m?), but again, only around 1925-26 this would happen. So first step: 18-20: Raise guns, switch to oil firing, AA-guns, boats get replaced. Second step (25-26 - 1-2 years of yard): remove a turret(Koenigs) or two (Kaisers), use the saved weight for more protection from above and also use the space below to build in a diesel-engine-drive... the goal is a "weak" battleship with either 3x2 or 4x2 30,5cm-guns, some secondaries and AA-guns, a range about 10.000nm at 14kn and a max speed of 25-26kn. If that isn´t doable, they will stay in stage 1-conditions and get a replacement
4.) Bayern-class: These ships are "brand new", but need some improvements... so raise the guns, put additional AA guns on them (19/20)... the first improvement is to improve deck-protection (+30mm, maybe +50mm), add bulges to the ships, switch to oil-firing. Speed fell to 19-20kn max (from 21,5-22kn): this would happen in 21/22.
Second - larger - rebuild around 27/28: Here you replace the old machinery by new diesels, enlarge the ship by 20m (a new bow section) to compensate the broader ship, so you would get 70.000 HP for 24-25kn max., Range 15.000nm at 14kn. In this stage propably the casematte-guns are removed, also the torpedo tubes. They get a new DP-150mm-gun, that could be ready around 1928 (and finally working after 10-12 years of development). These could be in single mounts and twin-turrets, so basically a 4x2 38cm, 4x2 + 6x1 150mm DP-guns, some 40mm Bofors in twin and singles, also lots of 20mm guns... These ships will be expensive to rebuild (around 50% of the original costs) but still very inferior designs.
5.) Mackensen-class: these ships (3+3 (1 less as OTL, because Blücher did not get sunk in my scenario)) with 4x2 35cm, 27,5kn, 300mm belt (second batch), 275mm belt (first batch) are true fast battleships. Finished between 1917 (late) and 1920... the core of the german High fleet.
Unfortunatly, they need expensive rebuilds, the turrets get raised guns, the casematte guns will be reduced to 10 (5 on each side), 88mm-AA-guns (8x1, later 6x2) will be put on these ships. the last 2 ships will be build with oil-only-engines, also a more modern version, reaching 29kn.
Range - around 7000nm at 14kn, later improved to 9000nm at 14kn.
First rebuild: Remove the casematte guns. This happens between 1926 and 1931... in this rebuild all coal firing is removed by oil, bulges and deck armor (+50mm-> 80-110mm), so they reach 27kn max after rebuild. Weaponary: 8x35cm (4x2), 8x15cm (4x2), 8x105mm (4x2), 16x40mm Bofors (4x2,8x1), 20x 20mm (10x2), 4 torpedotubes, 12 torpedos (still - germany was as stupid).
Second rebuild: Aging engines are completly removed by diesel engines, 100.000 HP, 28kn, 4x2 35cm, 20x150mm DP (10x2), 32x40mm Bofors (4x4, 8x2), 16x20mm (4x4), removed torpedo tubes, improved deck armor, bulges.
Expensive rebuild, still inferior ships - from 1934-40.

Older Battlecruisers:
the 28cm-gun-ships will be sold to the osmans.,
the Derflingers (als 3) get raised guns, a bit more deck protection (+30mm), more AA guns (from 4x1 88mm to 12x1 88mm, 12x Heavy MG)...(1919-21)
Switch to oil firing (between 22-24), raise the range

Only modernisation: 1930: Remove the casematte guns, remove the AA-guns - replace by 20 128mm DP-guns (new ones, the standard-gun for non-battleships, cruisers, destroyers, etc.) (10x2), add 16x40mm Boforts (4x4) and 16x20mm (8x2, later 4x4).
Deck protection + 20 (total +50mm), diesel engines for range (100.000 HP for 28kn), bulges, new above-deck torpedo tubes (4x3 60cm), Range - 14.000nm at 14kn, speed 28,5kn, Airconditioning... for tropical use suitable... again no real battleship, but superior to any cruiser, fast enough to run away from most battleships.

A new battleship design will be develoted and hot debates will errupt, between 1918 and 1925 around 20 designs will be calculated.
Something along a new design will be created around 1925, 4 ships in first batch, 4 ships in the second to replace the aging ships.
Building time: 4 years, costs - around 100mio Goldmark each
8 42cm-guns, 4x2, 24x150mm DP-guns (12x2), 20x40mm (5x4), 20x20mm (10x2), Deck armor 110-140mm, Side: Multi-Layer defence, 300mm Belt, 4 screws, mixed drive: 1st: for 22kn 40.000 HP on 2 screws, additional 80.000 HP for 2 screws Steam engines, max.speed 29,5kn, 50.000ts light, 57.000ts full, 265x38x9m, 2200 crew.
Only 4 will be build (Because real costs are 130-150mio Goldmark each)...

The major costs for these ships are:
Locks of wilhelmshaven and other areas have to be enlarged, the Kaiser-Wilhelm-channel is enlarged, able to take ships till 45m broad, 10m deep and 300m length (first ship - SMS Kaiser Wilhelm-II, a fleet carrier of 1950 with 280x43x9,5m and 78.000ts was nearly to big for this)

Overall the real use of battleships is heated discussed, the Battleship admirals demand more and more new toys, the cruiser/destroyer-fans demanded much more of these usefull ships, the submariners for 300 subs, all modernised.

Ironically the german fleet will have around 1940 the oldest ships with the USA, but japan, italy and UK have much more modern and stronger ships ready for use.

(that is my impression about this situation - with germany lacking the money, then they build "white elephants" usefull in traditional engagements, but way to expensive and to slow. With only 4 units they lack the support of the other "modernised" battleships. With enough range to break through these ships still can´t hope to significant reduce the Royal Navy (these have around 20 modern battleships with 16" and 18"-guns, from 62.000ts to 75.000ts (think about Yamato on steroids, 12x 18", 30kn, 457mm Belt, 250mm deck, 24x5,25" DP-guns, 280x38x14m)

Personally, I think that if the British and French are building modern Battleships Germany is going to prefer building new Battleships instead of constantly modernising their old ones. That would be both cheaper and more practical in the long run. Also, might we also be seeing a German carrier program that culminates in them having fleet carriers availeble by 1940? 

There was a German aircraft carrier being build, called German aircraft carrier I

[eurowatch]

Apr 4, 2018 14:01:01 GMT lordroel said:

Apr 4, 2018 13:31:09 GMT eurowatch said:

Personally, I think that if the British and French are building modern Battleships Germany is going to prefer building new Battleships instead of constantly modernising their old ones. That would be both cheaper and more practical in the long run. Also, might we also be seeing a German carrier program that culminates in them having fleet carriers availeble by 1940? 

There was a German aircraft carrier being build, called German aircraft carrier I

It is possible to build her in Heart of Iron IV where she was called the Weser.

[stevep]

A lot depends on the circumstances of course but there is likely to be a substantial naval race. The US will most likely complete their 1916 programme, although probably with the initial designs so the Lexington's are going to be even more weakly defended and probably 10x14" rather than 8x16" guns. This will spark the Japanese 8:8 programme as OTL although they probably won't be able to complete it, especially not after the 23 quake. Say they end up with about 10 new ships.

Britain will definitely build and probably something like the OTL G3 designs as lessons from Jutland will be similar if not from the earlier 1914 defeat. Possibly followed by the N3 type design although - depending on what's built elsewhere - I would prefer more G3's. [That gives commonality in the new ships and also markedly better strategic and tactical speed]. Very likely going to see the FAA developed and a lot of work on ASW warfare, as well as incorporating lessons from WWI in terms of better shell design, night fighting etc.

The army will be bigger than OTL 1914 but possibly not greatly so. There is an hostile Germany sitting just across the Channel but how likely a successful sudden invasion would be is doubtful so I don't see Britain going for a massive continental sized army. It will need a much stronger navy to secure protection of both the Channel and more distant trade routes as well as stronger air defences at least as much as a large army. Along with a refreshment of the British industrial base which showed some serious short-falls OTL and probably TTL as well. Since the war is a lot less expensive for Britain, in manpower and even more so money there will be resources for this, especially with the clear need.

Diplomatically Germany will look so dominant in Europe there will be attempts at forcing a new counter-weight but with France crippled the only real factor is possibly Russia but a lot will depend on what happens there. The fact the threat is also seen in other areas could see a closer co-operation with the other dominions. If the Germans insist on getting their Pacific colonies back there will be a substantial build-up by Australia and New Zealand and as said being forced to return Namibia will make Germany very unpopular in S Africa. Canada may also be brought in as the idea is clearly to defend against Germany so all bar the most blinkered American will realise its not a move against the US. I doubt the US will come out of isolationism however.
y
There will be no naval treaty as I doubt there will be the necessary trust for it. I can't see a buoyant imperial Germany accepting less than equality with Britain and in term Britain can't accept equality.

A lot will depend on how long the German domination in Europe lasts. With a liberal victory against the aristocracy in the post-war internal power struggle that potentially releases a lot more resources but it also means that the new Germany is likely to look to increasing the wealth of the ordinary German rather than maintaining the empire and the military at such high levels. It can afford to go lower with France crushed and Russia for the moment neutralised but this will be unpopular with the army and conservative figures and I suspect a successful liberal victory post-war will create a desire to cut this further. Also the much larger imperial commitments will increase costs.

The other question of course is what happens with Austria? Its going to face some rocky times after the war, unless Carl can get realistic reforms and that could be more difficult with a military victory increasing the influence of the conservatives and yet more Slavs - especially deeply resentful ones, under Hapsburg rule. Similarly with how Germany responds to such changes in Austria. If the military has been reduced enough in influence it could well allow reforms but if not you could see elements supporting more reactionary elements in Austria.

Problem for Britain in a new alliance with Russia is that it might alienate Japan, although with the strong German presence in the Pacific this could mean Japan and Russia, both fairly democratic and liberal in this scenario, recognising Germany is the primary threat to each of them. Note I'm not expecting anything formally occurring for a few years but all three powers are likely to see the common threat requires a common response and at least some defensive planning on how they can support each other if attacked by Germany. Italy could also become attached in this scenario but its likely to be more aware of its economic weakness, especially if it manages to avoid a collapse into fascism, and hence an even more cautious member of such a counter balancing group.

There is going to be continued tension in Europe and around the world, with other powers involved where their interests are affected.

[steffen]

Apr 4, 2018 13:31:09 GMT eurowatch said:

Apr 4, 2018 12:43:27 GMT steffen said:

Well, very nice pictures.

I have not given my opinion about german ship building till now:

Here a first draft:
1.) older Hex-Ships - the survivors will stay in the baltics, to check the russian fleet, support the baltic states. Overall only slightly modernized (raised guns, more AA guns). They will stay in the fleet for some years (War ends in 1917, so maybe 1921-24?), but at the end very aging...
2,) newer Hex-Ships - the same. Here you have at last 30,5cm-guns, so i think they could stay till 1928, a bit more modernized around 1920, maybe replacement of the coal and switch to oil firing, but otherwise only slightly modernized (remove the torpedo tubes, a bit more deck protection, raise the guns (Range of 27.000m max is propably needed), if they do more - because they want em in their colonies (for a decade) they could remove 2 turrets, put in much more AA guns, remove the old 15cm-guns in the casemattes... but again, keep the costs as low as possible for these old ships.
3.) Kaisers/Koenigs: Here i see an early modernisation - between 1918-20, they all go in the yards, they get their boats removed, rafts replace em. They add "lots" of AA-guns, propably 8x1 88mm AA-gun, maybe even 10x1 88mm, later 10x1 105mm-AA-gun, additional heavy MG and later 20mm cannons... the Koenigs could - second refit - loose their central turret and switch to diesels in this scenario. Then they get 50-60mm deck protection, bulges, maybe a false bow (length raise to 210m?), but again, only around 1925-26 this would happen. So first step: 18-20: Raise guns, switch to oil firing, AA-guns, boats get replaced. Second step (25-26 - 1-2 years of yard): remove a turret(Koenigs) or two (Kaisers), use the saved weight for more protection from above and also use the space below to build in a diesel-engine-drive... the goal is a "weak" battleship with either 3x2 or 4x2 30,5cm-guns, some secondaries and AA-guns, a range about 10.000nm at 14kn and a max speed of 25-26kn. If that isn´t doable, they will stay in stage 1-conditions and get a replacement
4.) Bayern-class: These ships are "brand new", but need some improvements... so raise the guns, put additional AA guns on them (19/20)... the first improvement is to improve deck-protection (+30mm, maybe +50mm), add bulges to the ships, switch to oil-firing. Speed fell to 19-20kn max (from 21,5-22kn): this would happen in 21/22.
Second - larger - rebuild around 27/28: Here you replace the old machinery by new diesels, enlarge the ship by 20m (a new bow section) to compensate the broader ship, so you would get 70.000 HP for 24-25kn max., Range 15.000nm at 14kn. In this stage propably the casematte-guns are removed, also the torpedo tubes. They get a new DP-150mm-gun, that could be ready around 1928 (and finally working after 10-12 years of development). These could be in single mounts and twin-turrets, so basically a 4x2 38cm, 4x2 + 6x1 150mm DP-guns, some 40mm Bofors in twin and singles, also lots of 20mm guns... These ships will be expensive to rebuild (around 50% of the original costs) but still very inferior designs.
5.) Mackensen-class: these ships (3+3 (1 less as OTL, because Blücher did not get sunk in my scenario)) with 4x2 35cm, 27,5kn, 300mm belt (second batch), 275mm belt (first batch) are true fast battleships. Finished between 1917 (late) and 1920... the core of the german High fleet.
Unfortunatly, they need expensive rebuilds, the turrets get raised guns, the casematte guns will be reduced to 10 (5 on each side), 88mm-AA-guns (8x1, later 6x2) will be put on these ships. the last 2 ships will be build with oil-only-engines, also a more modern version, reaching 29kn.
Range - around 7000nm at 14kn, later improved to 9000nm at 14kn.
First rebuild: Remove the casematte guns. This happens between 1926 and 1931... in this rebuild all coal firing is removed by oil, bulges and deck armor (+50mm-> 80-110mm), so they reach 27kn max after rebuild. Weaponary: 8x35cm (4x2), 8x15cm (4x2), 8x105mm (4x2), 16x40mm Bofors (4x2,8x1), 20x 20mm (10x2), 4 torpedotubes, 12 torpedos (still - germany was as stupid).
Second rebuild: Aging engines are completly removed by diesel engines, 100.000 HP, 28kn, 4x2 35cm, 20x150mm DP (10x2), 32x40mm Bofors (4x4, 8x2), 16x20mm (4x4), removed torpedo tubes, improved deck armor, bulges.
Expensive rebuild, still inferior ships - from 1934-40.

Older Battlecruisers:
the 28cm-gun-ships will be sold to the osmans.,
the Derflingers (als 3) get raised guns, a bit more deck protection (+30mm), more AA guns (from 4x1 88mm to 12x1 88mm, 12x Heavy MG)...(1919-21)
Switch to oil firing (between 22-24), raise the range

Only modernisation: 1930: Remove the casematte guns, remove the AA-guns - replace by 20 128mm DP-guns (new ones, the standard-gun for non-battleships, cruisers, destroyers, etc.) (10x2), add 16x40mm Boforts (4x4) and 16x20mm (8x2, later 4x4).
Deck protection + 20 (total +50mm), diesel engines for range (100.000 HP for 28kn), bulges, new above-deck torpedo tubes (4x3 60cm), Range - 14.000nm at 14kn, speed 28,5kn, Airconditioning... for tropical use suitable... again no real battleship, but superior to any cruiser, fast enough to run away from most battleships.

A new battleship design will be develoted and hot debates will errupt, between 1918 and 1925 around 20 designs will be calculated.
Something along a new design will be created around 1925, 4 ships in first batch, 4 ships in the second to replace the aging ships.
Building time: 4 years, costs - around 100mio Goldmark each
8 42cm-guns, 4x2, 24x150mm DP-guns (12x2), 20x40mm (5x4), 20x20mm (10x2), Deck armor 110-140mm, Side: Multi-Layer defence, 300mm Belt, 4 screws, mixed drive: 1st: for 22kn 40.000 HP on 2 screws, additional 80.000 HP for 2 screws Steam engines, max.speed 29,5kn, 50.000ts light, 57.000ts full, 265x38x9m, 2200 crew.
Only 4 will be build (Because real costs are 130-150mio Goldmark each)...

The major costs for these ships are:
Locks of wilhelmshaven and other areas have to be enlarged, the Kaiser-Wilhelm-channel is enlarged, able to take ships till 45m broad, 10m deep and 300m length (first ship - SMS Kaiser Wilhelm-II, a fleet carrier of 1950 with 280x43x9,5m and 78.000ts was nearly to big for this)

Overall the real use of battleships is heated discussed, the Battleship admirals demand more and more new toys, the cruiser/destroyer-fans demanded much more of these usefull ships, the submariners for 300 subs, all modernised.

Ironically the german fleet will have around 1940 the oldest ships with the USA, but japan, italy and UK have much more modern and stronger ships ready for use.

(that is my impression about this situation - with germany lacking the money, then they build "white elephants" usefull in traditional engagements, but way to expensive and to slow. With only 4 units they lack the support of the other "modernised" battleships. With enough range to break through these ships still can´t hope to significant reduce the Royal Navy (these have around 20 modern battleships with 16" and 18"-guns, from 62.000ts to 75.000ts (think about Yamato on steroids, 12x 18", 30kn, 457mm Belt, 250mm deck, 24x5,25" DP-guns, 280x38x14m)

Personally, I think that if the British and French are building modern Battleships Germany is going to prefer building new Battleships instead of constantly modernising their old ones. That would be both cheaper and more practical in the long run. Also, might we also be seeing a German carrier program that culminates in them having fleet carriers availeble by 1940? 

Hi,

yes and no.
Yes, the military or better said the navy will scream for blood. 
Unfortunatly, the german navy had spent lots of money for now obsolete expensive toys.

In this TL i made the navy beeing succsessfull - you could even add a third big victory, say in autum 15 with the now reduced GF of the RN engaging the whole might of the HSF, causing agains casulties in 3:1 proportion... (it would help a bit, if the germans loose 3-4 older HEX-DNs and the RN loose say 2-3 QE and 1-2 R-Class, but that is problematic in its timing). The fact stay true - germany lack the money to finance ships for 55-70 Mio goldmark per ship.

Here they win a war. They get money (they need to repay the war-bonds), but overall germany was - from 1912 on - forced to reform.
These reforms mean
a.) a lot more money poured into social systems
b.) the democratic parties get much more influence. OTL allready the parliament decided about the naval budget, this could be more difficulty, if the chancellor now is elected by the people instead named by the Kaiser.
c.) the junkers will suffer a huge defeat - prussian 3-class-voting system is dead like a dodo... 

Overall the navy - and the army - will fight for its budgets.
With france not broken and reduced to nil, germany still need a serious army, modernized and "ready"... esp. the shell crisis they had suffered will make sure that germany has a LOT ammo for its guns, lots of spare parts, spare rifles, spare guns, strategic material.
So basically the money from 2-3 years (18-21) go into reserves... the german lesson of this war is: german recruits are as good or better as other nations regulars. All you need is enough material to use, enough ammo for the guns.

The navy has a lot ships (2 of the 4 Bayerns, 6 of the 6 Mackensen-class) to be build - till around 1919. 
They could even drop 2-3 of the Mackensens, because they lack the money to build em. The old plans were for numbers, not money. But to replace an armored cruiser build in 1900 for 10 Mio Goldmark by a fast battleship for 70 Mio is something the parliament will not accept. Not after winning a war, not after paying the bill for 1-2 million invalids.


So new british and japanese and american ships will be build - at last one generation of them. Say from 1920-24 (four years for a battleship to be build and seen by the others?).
Before the germans themself build modern ships, just for the wrong war. Distances of the engagements raised from expected 5000m to 20.000m, so the first and best possibility is to modernise what you have.
Second point - lack of range - for that you need diesel-drive, but that is in its infants. Another point for the "lets modernise cheapish now"... even steam engines explode in power... a 1925 planned steam engine produce twice the power on 1/3 of the space and 1/4 of the weight as a 1910-steam engine.  Add in oil instead of coal, because of refuling and range issues, also reduce the number of crew. That is esp. important for the germans because the living conditions on german ww1-battleships are - well interesting.

My idea - modernise cheapish, keep the fleet (by numbers) nr2, accept that the USA could outbuild you.
I gave the german yards the dutch and osman contracts for modern battleships... that is important in these critical years (19-25) to keep them busy and the german war making industry keeps its knowledge.

Around 1925 they will start building new ships... and around 1922-23 they will try to improve the modern existing ones to keep em alive till 1930... that is hopeless, but they will not know that.

About carriers - here i see germany going into a lead... on paper in the beginning some modified carriers looks cheap.. you do not need very expensive armor, not very very very expensive superheavy guns and no large crews.
Later you will learn that carriers are more expensive, but i see the navy urge for them and the parliament could give money because they hope to calm down the navy boys a bit.

In the same time germany need - from 1918-28 to replace every single cruiser, destroyer and submarine.
Cruisers are expensive - if you need numbers... so i see germany have 3 fleets of them
a.) baltics - basically here all coal fired ships with lack of range , outdated will be here. If it can swim but is outdated - baltics.
b.) northsea, channel coast - here the modernised "latest" ships.. oil fired, better guns, larger guns, greater torpedos... still no new ships, but better as in a.
c.) the new stuff - diesel or mixed propulsion driven, great range, 30kn, 8x15cm, later 8x15cm in twinturretsm 60cm-torpedos (the germans planned to build em, here they do it, but do not give em to japan or uk... so germany has the lead in huge long range torpedos)

Destroyers:the germans will use up the old stuff, replace em in the ration 2:1... 2 older ones get removed and 1 new one get build.
This keeps the smaller yards busy, the engine producer happy, sometimes they switch to diesels/turbodiesels... again one new destroyer costs 3times the money of a medium sized older one.

Subs: they will again use what they have, but build larger cruiser-subs, but also better subs. the older ones will operate from the colonies, just like very old cruisers, even Pre-DNs could be send. Cheap, could be run aground (or dig a channel), and used as powerplant - later remove the guns, use em to fortify the ports. 

With carriers germany could have some smaller - for learning... like the SMS Ausonia... 
later maybe germany use the body of 3 Mackensen-class-ships to build large carriers... similar to OTL KAGA/AKAGI or Lexington-class... 

around 1925 i see a demand on fast carriers with 20-30 planes, some CVL... to begin they carry 2x2 15cm (or 4x1), to hunt merchants, these get later removed. Diesel driven, 27kn, range 15.000nm at 18kn, able to refuel also subs and smaller ships... maybe they also build CVE based on large tankers (160x20x10m, max speed 18kn, range: 25.000nm at 12kn), with again 20-30 planes, only light AA guns... as a combined "refuel-station/recon unit for subs/raiders" ... they don´t need to be the best of the best, just some landing platforms in the sea... in the same time usefull to look for hostile ships.
Just think about 6-8 of them, in peacetimes normal tankers, that could be modified (or if that isn´t possible, build 6 of them, put 1 in the northern atlantic, one in the south atlantic, one in the pacific, one in the indian ocean and two are reserve/refit...)...

if you now have raiders around the world - say Atlantic 10 cruisers (older smaller ones, more modern later - all diesel driven, 6-8 15cm, 30kn, torpedos, maybe 1-2 seaplanes) and each 5 in the pacific and indian ocean, with the bases in the colonies, you have created "the" nightmare for the Royal navy, for the costs of one battleship... 

The germans also developted guided bombs... in this project isn´t ended, the germans could develop a weapon that ends the life of all battleships... around 1922-23.  They have their zeppelins, later land based bombers, that could destroy a battleship with ONE bomb. 
Why would they waste 120-130 Mio Goldmark for one such behemont, if they also could build 20 destroyers, 10 cruisers and 1 carrier (CVL), also 20-30 large bombers.... with a hitratio of 40-50% in peacetime you need ten bombers to destroy one battleship. 
All you need to do is to enlargen the range of the bombers... with germany WINNING the war their engine industries will be fine, on par with the british one.
With free access to tungsten and high alloy materials and - by the osman empire - enough fuel, around 1930 for sure - there are no problems for them.

UK is in deep troubles. The osmans are a strong german partner, sitting in palestine... and in northern persia... 
Austria-Hungaria exists and they will have the strategic otl yugoslavian mines... the osmans sit on the tungsten mine, so UK has no access to this.

France - france is the key to peace or war. If they try something - again - they will be squeezed, but it is possible that the british will finance them massivly, because that force the germans to finance their army more. More money in the army mean less for the navy.

The USA has not suffered the "antigerman" push, but also had not earned so much money as it did OTL in 17-19. they are heathy, but if (big ?) they suffer a 1929-breakdown, it will not influence the rest of the world, so no depression.

UK could live with its defeat, but i doubt it. They propably will finance japan, to counter the german colonies. They will build up a truly MASSIVE fleet, i see 40 battleships, 15 battlecruisers, 20 carriers, 120 cruisers, 300 destroyers, 120 subs, world wide bases to take out german colonies (that will cause a reaction by the germans, so the colonies will be full of troops, complete useless in the war, but they both will not understood that - the negative fallout for them is that the colonies will be ready to liberate themself much earlier, because they will use massivly the natives for these forces)

That is my opinion - feel free to show us another path... it is just some dicussion about what would happen, nothing set in stone.

Thanks for the contribution... i like it

[steffen]

Apr 4, 2018 15:34:00 GMT stevep said:

A lot depends on the circumstances of course but there is likely to be a substantial naval race. The US will most likely complete their 1916 programme, although probably with the initial designs so the Lexington's are going to be even more weakly defended and probably 10x14" rather than 8x16" guns. This will spark the Japanese 8:8 programme as OTL although they probably won't be able to complete it, especially not after the 23 quake. Say they end up with about 10 new ships.

Britain will definitely build and probably something like the OTL G3 designs as lessons from Jutland will be similar if not from the earlier 1914 defeat. Possibly followed by the N3 type design although - depending on what's built elsewhere - I would prefer more G3's. [That gives commonality in the new ships and also markedly better strategic and tactical speed]. Very likely going to see the FAA developed and a lot of work on ASW warfare, as well as incorporating lessons from WWI in terms of better shell design, night fighting etc.

The army will be bigger than OTL 1914 but possibly not greatly so. There is an hostile Germany sitting just across the Channel but how likely a successful sudden invasion would be is doubtful so I don't see Britain going for a massive continental sized army. It will need a much stronger navy to secure protection of both the Channel and more distant trade routes as well as stronger air defences at least as much as a large army. Along with a refreshment of the British industrial base which showed some serious short-falls OTL and probably TTL as well. Since the war is a lot less expensive for Britain, in manpower and even more so money there will be resources for this, especially with the clear need.

Diplomatically Germany will look so dominant in Europe there will be attempts at forcing a new counter-weight but with France crippled the only real factor is possibly Russia but a lot will depend on what happens there. The fact the threat is also seen in other areas could see a closer co-operation with the other dominions. If the Germans insist on getting their Pacific colonies back there will be a substantial build-up by Australia and New Zealand and as said being forced to return Namibia will make Germany very unpopular in S Africa. Canada may also be brought in as the idea is clearly to defend against Germany so all bar the most blinkered American will realise its not a move against the US. I doubt the US will come out of isolationism however.
y
There will be no naval treaty as I doubt there will be the necessary trust for it. I can't see a buoyant imperial Germany accepting less than equality with Britain and in term Britain can't accept equality.

A lot will depend on how long the German domination in Europe lasts. With a liberal victory against the aristocracy in the post-war internal power struggle that potentially releases a lot more resources but it also means that the new Germany is likely to look to increasing the wealth of the ordinary German rather than maintaining the empire and the military at such high levels. It can afford to go lower with France crushed and Russia for the moment neutralised but this will be unpopular with the army and conservative figures and I suspect a successful liberal victory post-war will create a desire to cut this further. Also the much larger imperial commitments will increase costs.

The other question of course is what happens with Austria? Its going to face some rocky times after the war, unless Carl can get realistic reforms and that could be more difficult with a military victory increasing the influence of the conservatives and yet more Slavs - especially deeply resentful ones, under Hapsburg rule. Similarly with how Germany responds to such changes in Austria. If the military has been reduced enough in influence it could well allow reforms but if not you could see elements supporting more reactionary elements in Austria.

Problem for Britain in a new alliance with Russia is that it might alienate Japan, although with the strong German presence in the Pacific this could mean Japan and Russia, both fairly democratic and liberal in this scenario, recognising Germany is the primary threat to each of them. Note I'm not expecting anything formally occurring for a few years but all three powers are likely to see the common threat requires a common response and at least some defensive planning on how they can support each other if attacked by Germany. Italy could also become attached in this scenario but its likely to be more aware of its economic weakness, especially if it manages to avoid a collapse into fascism, and hence an even more cautious member of such a counter balancing group.

There is going to be continued tension in Europe and around the world, with other powers involved where their interests are affected.

What everyone builds is up to you - that scenario should discuss the ships that will be build and why.
But you overlook some points.
The G/N-class was only possible with the british knowledge about the german ships. Here they have no such knowledge, so this TL G3-class is completly different to OTL. 

Personally i agree - the british will build like hell new ships.
The question is - will they learn the right things out of the two defeats?
the dec-14-number is one of numbers, numerical superior germans kill inferior numbers, slaughter em. Message: we need much more ships.
the 15-jutland engagement is allready with lowered numbers, propably the british learn about inferior ammo (that is something they should learn out of this), but also that german ships are much tougher then their own ones (without inspecting taken german ships UK lack the knowledge - this is often ignored. they do not know how to build a good protected ship, UK learned that by inspecting german ships). the only ones who do this right in the moment are USA and germany. 

With no funding problems - as we both agree UK will build tons of bigger, better battleships, i can´t see the need to build the G-class.
The lessons are: bigger guns, better hitratio, greater shooting range, more numbers, tougher ships.

Basically you could do that with an armored HOOD-class, just 10.000ts more, 3kn less and 12x15", later 12x16" in 4 triple-turrets, 400mm belt, 150mm deck... because another lesson the british will learn - you need no extreme different max. speed, just a good speed in tough ships. 
If they could loose Renown and Repulse it would be a benefit, cause they are completly useless ships in this TL. 

The USA - i haven´t mentioned them, because they could go every path.
From "outbuilding everyone" to the OTL stuff... slow stable ships

the political aspects  of the german victory.
France is broken in economic terms, but could still recover and still have a large(r) army.
the british need a much larger army (20 divisions regulars, 40 divisions reserve), with HUGE ammounts of ammo. All sides suffered by the shell crisis, nobody will repeat this mistake. 
UK will try to improve conditions with france, if that is succsessfull they have another base in europe.

Austria will face some hardship and problems, but with such scenario (easy victory in the east from 1915 on, no Brusilov-operation) i see em survive the 20ties and 30ties. Esp. with a strong germany at their side.

The osmans - you seem to forgot them. They are a strong power, getting stronger and stronger each year. More and more german railroads improving the communication in the country, so a large german army could be shifted easily to palestine or southern iraq. That is not good for the british... esp., with suez in danger. And nothing they could do about.

I see UK trying to build up a front against germany, with france (possible), italy (possible), russia (nope - they will not be their friend, they suffered terrible in area but UK not), japan (okay)... 

THe south africans will not be happy about the german colony, but who gave it back? it was the british empire, so the hate against the british will be 10times of the hate against the germans. 

Australia and NewZealand will demand more protection, against german bases... esp. with New Caledonia in german hands (noumea). That is an island big enough for 2-3 marine divisions, nice coastal artillery, large depots, ports, all the nice stuff to harm the communication and supply lines to and from the british isles to this zone.

We do not know if the dutch enter the german camp - sometimes around 1920-22, with japan enlarging its navy this could happen.

Germany possess now colonies world wide, they had learned how important the tradewar/merchant war with UK was (Emdens raids and the disruption it caused was well understood), the germans even have now a nice base in the osman areas (they will negotiate that) and in Deutsch-Ostafrika... for UK it is a knive pointed at their heart...

also, if the british start troubles in german colonies, the german do the same in - india. I can´t see UK beeing so stupid in this situation.
We have also not discussed ireland - will it gain liberty or do we see a brutal massacre, angering the USA massivly? 

OTL russia and germany had generally good terms, only the french money and the problems with Austria in the balkan made that impossible. The "new" germany (for me it is 100% clear that reforms will happen - still a kaiser, but with less power and no unfair 3-class-election system) could offer generous terms in trading... esp. after france no longer could finance the russian economic rise.
If you add the "japanese problem" - russia and germany have no love for them, you even could see russia join the germans (and get their reparations reduced to nil - there is lots of leverage and the kaiser was allways found for the romanovs)

Japan face some very unfriendly decisions, they had made their 21 demands, burning their bridges to china.
Germany wil be VERY angry and hateful for not getting back "their" colonies. So they will invest in china... just like OTL. Money is money and china is a nice place to make it. With no tsingtau, the german government could be seen as a good guy in china. 

This could bring either a conflict or a joint venture by the USA and germany! With both wanting trade it could be more the second... the dutch would want safety from japanese thread, so an alliance is possible. For germany a win-win-situation, getting rubber and stuff cheaper is good for them, also they get a base on their way to new caledonia.

The fallout of no german patents in Entente/US-hands we haven´t discussed, also the point that in germany science will be concentrated even more as OTL in the 20ties.

[stevep]

Eurowatch

I don't think the British gained much knowledge from the German ships. Most were scuttled at Scapa and one of the Baden class, think it was Baden itself was used for some firing tests but that was all. A lot of testing was done on older British ships as well and most was learnt from war experience.

Thicker armour was useful but not particularly important. More important were:
a) Removing anti-flash protection in the BCF[Battle Cruiser Force] to speed up firing. [although with possibly somewhat less stable cordite]. This was learnt after Jutland OTL and might be learnt earlier TTL. [The Germans learns about this at Dogger Bank when they nearly lost Seydlitz with two turrets being devastated by a cordite fire. They might not learn its importance TTL until later and then lose more at TTL Jutland alternative. Similarly the RN might learn from the earlier defeat TTL].

b) Unreliability of AP shells at low angle impacts. OTL this was learnt at Jutland as the British shells, with their markedly larger bursting amounts did a lot of damage but much tended to be outside the armoured belt, hence the survival of so many German ships at Jutland. [You basically got mission kills rather than sinking kills]. By the end of the war the bulk of the fleet was equipped with the new greenboy shells that were a lot more effective at armour penetration. [Called this because they had a green band around them it identify them].

c) Problems with poor reporting by scounting forces and internal communication within the elements. Again this was most noticed at Jutland OTL so might be noticed in 1914 TTL but is likely to be seen in TTL Jutland.

d) Relative weakness in terms of night fighting. Again this discovered at Jutland OTL when the Germans managed to escape Jellicoe's attempt to trap them the following morning. [This was both a question of being poorly trained at night fighting and again poor communications as so many captain didn't report the sightings higher up.] This is one point that might not be noticed TTL as both big encounters have RN defeats.

There were other problems with designs during the WWI period. Relatively poor protection against torpedoes and flood, use of casemented secondaries that were generally unless in any seaway, being unwilling to adopt some advances such as small-tube boilers etc but they were common to pretty much every power.

That is one reason why only the Hood of her class was completed and the Chief designer actually wanted her scrapped on the stocks like her sisters, as it was already considered obsolete in terms of lessons learnt in the war. [Whereas the USN when given details of her plans realised she was a revolutionary new design, to them, and drastically changed the Lexingtons as a result. See us-observations-on-the-plans-of-the-hood, for more details of a discussion on this. Its a long thread but has been derailed rather by a troll and also has wondered quite a lot as threads often do. However the 1st few pages will probably be most informative.

As such something like the G3's is likely to emerge, especially presuming a continued German threat and the historical German threat. Note that on another naval site there is another discussion about how Britain could have done even better than that. See diesel-powered-g3-battle-cruiser-t8853.html, which proved to be a revelation to me and I've read a lot about designs during the period.  There is a discussion of how the US could counter this with a drastic change in doctrine but the G3's themselves were a leap ahead of just about everything else in the world.

  I would also note that if the Germans have been as successful as assumed in the TL then they have markedly less incentive to change their tactics and designs themselves.  [Although they won't have the problems of the OTL WWII German with the loss of virtually all their design experience between the wars].  Also if the fleet is more successful and the subs kept more restrained their likely to spend on the big ships, which are a lot less dangerous to Britain, than massive amounts of subs.

  Yes the German colonies are going to pose a problem in protecting British trade and communications but in turn Germany also need to man them and if they do more than a few cruisers as OTL that is going to be very expensive for the navy, let alone the army and air forces needed to control their colonies and protect those bases.  Coupled with the extra troops needed in garrisoning new gains in Europe.  [Although with France and Russia crippled in the short term their regular forces in Europe can be reduced in the short term.]  Furthermore if their going to convert to oil fueling for ships that, as Britain found out prior to WWII, is hugely expensive in terms of building up worldwide bases with oil stockpiles.  [The huge expensive often sited for the construction of the Singapore base OTL was actually largely because of the need to replace the already existing worldwide coal stockpiles with new oil tanks].  True Germany is starting from scratch in new colonies and don't have bases in areas such as the Americas they will have to pay a little less than Britain but its still going to be a huge cost.

  In terms of allies Russia will be out for the moment but provided it avoids large scale instability and civil war it has the resources to recover quite quickly and especially a democratic Russia could have even greater potential than the rapid developments Russia was making prior to 1914.  The question here might be with Japan but I can see both viewing Germany as by far the greatest threat to both of them.  Especially with tension in the Pacific over the former German colonies that Japan has.  - I find it strange that you think Russia will be more hostile to Britain for suffering less territorial losses than Russia did to German for inflicting both territorial and economic losses on them, as well the huge human losses.  Russia will want security at least and quite possibly most wishing to regain at least some of those lost lands.

  France I see as less likely.  Its suffered devastation of its industrial heartlands, which need to be rebuild and [if as OTL, lost at least some people transported to Germany as forced labourers and dying there].  Coupled with being made to pay for a large proportion of the German war costs and the loss of industrial territories their going to take a long time to recover.  There will be a desire for revenge but I can't see the potential.  Also if France did look like recovering military strength there is the danger of another German invasion to prevent this so France would have to be careful what it does.

  Italy is likely to be hostile to Germany because its the primary barrier to the gains it wants in the Balkans but is also likely to be too cautious.  Also the war would have shown Italy's economic weakness so if there is an half-way intelligent Italian government its likely to emphasis industrial development to increase its weight so to speak.  As such it might join in a war to end German domination if that looks likely but I suspect it won't be too eager to be an open member of a defensive alliance to counter German power.

  In terms of German allies Austria could go quite either way.  It could collapse into a quagmire of internal conflict or if reformists win and manage to establish a stable government it could have a good economic revival.  Note that this doesn't mean its going to be automatically friendly to Germany.

  The Turkish empire is very likely to go down.  Even if it brutally represses the bulk of the population, which is quite possible with the Young Turk regime, its going to have continued and large scale unrest.  I don't think even the imperial Germans, let alone the more moderate and democratic government being suggested, is going to be happy if they try the sort of methods they used against the Armenians against just about everybody else.  Even if they get Cyprus under their full control, which I'm less than certain of, this would just alienate Greece especially more but also most of the Balkans and also make Egypt a lot more friendly to a continued British presence.  Also even if a huge investment occurs in railways through Anatolia and the southern empire its still going to be difficult for them, let alone Germany, to maintain a large army to attack across the Sinai desert.  They can close the canal but are unlikely, operating at that distance from their centres of power to be able to breach it and break into Egypt.  [Its similar to the El Alemein position in that respect.  Given continued internal unrest, even without any 3rd parties, of which a lot could be interested in doing so, Turkey is likely to be a drain on Germany if it continues to prop it all.  Yes it will have oil, although control of Baku may delay discovery/development - by Turkey anyway - of the Arabic sources.

  You have wishful thinking of the Dutch joining Germany given the latter's attack on Belgium and the nature of its occupation, since I don't see any factors which will alter that.  Also would Japan or a continuing aggressive Germany be seen as the primary threat?  Ditto with the S African reaction to Germany seizing back SW Africa. 

  As I say Germany regaining its colonies and taking large other areas from defeated powers will cause concern in much of the world including the dominions.  Which as I pointed out is likely to prompt them to spend more on their own defences and be even more willing to joint programmes with Britain.  This could revive the idea of imperial confederation, at least among the white dominions and also ways to boost the strength of the empire as a whole.  You could see Britain finally dropping free trade and laissez faire ideas.  The former is bad in a deeply protectionist world and the latter is always bloody disastrous ! This could see a significant revival of the British industrial and scientific base, boosted by the short-comings of the old system displayed during the war.

  In terms of British politics the defeat and continued threat by a very powerful and aggressive Germany is going to make pacifism extremely unlikely.  It could also see the continued dominance of the left by the Liberal party rather than Labour replacing them, which is less likely to see prolonged Conservative domination and a more progressive stance by both parties.

  In terms of Ireland Pearse's coup attempt may never occur, at least at anything like that level or may be far more effectively defeated.  Coupled with the experience of the Protestant and Catholic forces learning respect for each other on the western front while the extremists are likely to try something at some stage you could see Ireland staying democratic and stable rather than being plunged into repeated conflict and chaos.  It could still end up badly for everybody as OTL but by no means certain. 

  Indian is also more likely to see reform than reaction as the British leadership will see they need every element they can to boost their strength.

  Overall if Germany seeks to stir up problems in British colonies it could be awkward but given the different stances toward colonies, I think Germany would be more vulnerable to any British response.

  Back to naval affairs, in the short term the US will almost certainly do something like their initial 1916 programme, especially as the German threat that was the reason given initially for it is even larger now and they won't have experience from WWI, their's or British, to change their views.  As such their going to build a sizeable but fairly obsolete fleet which is heavily weighed toward big slow battleships and with minimal scouting abilities.  However, with the exception of Japan - who is still likely in this scenario to see Germany as their primary threat - their going to be largely irrelevant to the rest of the world as unlikely to seem that relevant. 

  After this the US may consider building more ships, especially if the naval race elsewhere continues, or they may decide their better off staying isolation and, not fully realising the limitations of their new fleet thinking its perfectly adequate.  Especially since this force is going to be very expensive to maintain and man compared to the small expense costs the US were used to.  .  If they do they may start building some carriers, especially as Britain will almost certainly have a number by this time and other major powers are likely to follow suit and possibly also start building fast BBs or they could continue with building their tradition slow designs. 

  Anyway, I think I've covered most of your points but say if I've missed anything.

[steffen]

Apr 6, 2018 12:42:14 GMT stevep said:

Eurowatch

I don't think the British gained much knowledge from the German ships. Most were scuttled at Scapa and one of the Baden class, think it was Baden itself was used for some firing tests but that was all. A lot of testing was done on older British ships as well and most was learnt from war experience.

Thicker armour was useful but not particularly important. More important were:
a) Removing anti-flash protection in the BCF[Battle Cruiser Force] to speed up firing. [although with possibly somewhat less stable cordite]. This was learnt after Jutland OTL and might be learnt earlier TTL. [The Germans learns about this at Dogger Bank when they nearly lost Seydlitz with two turrets being devastated by a cordite fire. They might not learn its importance TTL until later and then lose more at TTL Jutland alternative. Similarly the RN might learn from the earlier defeat TTL].

b) Unreliability of AP shells at low angle impacts. OTL this was learnt at Jutland as the British shells, with their markedly larger bursting amounts did a lot of damage but much tended to be outside the armoured belt, hence the survival of so many German ships at Jutland. [You basically got mission kills rather than sinking kills]. By the end of the war the bulk of the fleet was equipped with the new greenboy shells that were a lot more effective at armour penetration. [Called this because they had a green band around them it identify them].

c) Problems with poor reporting by scounting forces and internal communication within the elements. Again this was most noticed at Jutland OTL so might be noticed in 1914 TTL but is likely to be seen in TTL Jutland.

d) Relative weakness in terms of night fighting. Again this discovered at Jutland OTL when the Germans managed to escape Jellicoe's attempt to trap them the following morning. [This was both a question of being poorly trained at night fighting and again poor communications as so many captain didn't report the sightings higher up.] This is one point that might not be noticed TTL as both big encounters have RN defeats.

There were other problems with designs during the WWI period. Relatively poor protection against torpedoes and flood, use of casemented secondaries that were generally unless in any seaway, being unwilling to adopt some advances such as small-tube boilers etc but they were common to pretty much every power.

That is one reason why only the Hood of her class was completed and the Chief designer actually wanted her scrapped on the stocks like her sisters, as it was already considered obsolete in terms of lessons learnt in the war. [Whereas the USN when given details of her plans realised she was a revolutionary new design, to them, and drastically changed the Lexingtons as a result. See us-observations-on-the-plans-of-the-hood, for more details of a discussion on this. Its a long thread but has been derailed rather by a troll and also has wondered quite a lot as threads often do. However the 1st few pages will probably be most informative.

As such something like the G3's is likely to emerge, especially presuming a continued German threat and the historical German threat. Note that on another naval site there is another discussion about how Britain could have done even better than that. See diesel-powered-g3-battle-cruiser-t8853.html, which proved to be a revelation to me and I've read a lot about designs during the period.  There is a discussion of how the US could counter this with a drastic change in doctrine but the G3's themselves were a leap ahead of just about everything else in the world.

  I would also note that if the Germans have been as successful as assumed in the TL then they have markedly less incentive to change their tactics and designs themselves.  [Although they won't have the problems of the OTL WWII German with the loss of virtually all their design experience between the wars].  Also if the fleet is more successful and the subs kept more restrained their likely to spend on the big ships, which are a lot less dangerous to Britain, than massive amounts of subs.

  Yes the German colonies are going to pose a problem in protecting British trade and communications but in turn Germany also need to man them and if they do more than a few cruisers as OTL that is going to be very expensive for the navy, let alone the army and air forces needed to control their colonies and protect those bases.  Coupled with the extra troops needed in garrisoning new gains in Europe.  [Although with France and Russia crippled in the short term their regular forces in Europe can be reduced in the short term.]  Furthermore if their going to convert to oil fueling for ships that, as Britain found out prior to WWII, is hugely expensive in terms of building up worldwide bases with oil stockpiles.  [The huge expensive often sited for the construction of the Singapore base OTL was actually largely because of the need to replace the already existing worldwide coal stockpiles with new oil tanks].  True Germany is starting from scratch in new colonies and don't have bases in areas such as the Americas they will have to pay a little less than Britain but its still going to be a huge cost.

  In terms of allies Russia will be out for the moment but provided it avoids large scale instability and civil war it has the resources to recover quite quickly and especially a democratic Russia could have even greater potential than the rapid developments Russia was making prior to 1914.  The question here might be with Japan but I can see both viewing Germany as by far the greatest threat to both of them.  Especially with tension in the Pacific over the former German colonies that Japan has.  - I find it strange that you think Russia will be more hostile to Britain for suffering less territorial losses than Russia did to German for inflicting both territorial and economic losses on them, as well the huge human losses.  Russia will want security at least and quite possibly most wishing to regain at least some of those lost lands.

  France I see as less likely.  Its suffered devastation of its industrial heartlands, which need to be rebuild and [if as OTL, lost at least some people transported to Germany as forced labourers and dying there].  Coupled with being made to pay for a large proportion of the German war costs and the loss of industrial territories their going to take a long time to recover.  There will be a desire for revenge but I can't see the potential.  Also if France did look like recovering military strength there is the danger of another German invasion to prevent this so France would have to be careful what it does.

  Italy is likely to be hostile to Germany because its the primary barrier to the gains it wants in the Balkans but is also likely to be too cautious.  Also the war would have shown Italy's economic weakness so if there is an half-way intelligent Italian government its likely to emphasis industrial development to increase its weight so to speak.  As such it might join in a war to end German domination if that looks likely but I suspect it won't be too eager to be an open member of a defensive alliance to counter German power.

  In terms of German allies Austria could go quite either way.  It could collapse into a quagmire of internal conflict or if reformists win and manage to establish a stable government it could have a good economic revival.  Note that this doesn't mean its going to be automatically friendly to Germany.

  The Turkish empire is very likely to go down.  Even if it brutally represses the bulk of the population, which is quite possible with the Young Turk regime, its going to have continued and large scale unrest.  I don't think even the imperial Germans, let alone the more moderate and democratic government being suggested, is going to be happy if they try the sort of methods they used against the Armenians against just about everybody else.  Even if they get Cyprus under their full control, which I'm less than certain of, this would just alienate Greece especially more but also most of the Balkans and also make Egypt a lot more friendly to a continued British presence.  Also even if a huge investment occurs in railways through Anatolia and the southern empire its still going to be difficult for them, let alone Germany, to maintain a large army to attack across the Sinai desert.  They can close the canal but are unlikely, operating at that distance from their centres of power to be able to breach it and break into Egypt.  [Its similar to the El Alemein position in that respect.  Given continued internal unrest, even without any 3rd parties, of which a lot could be interested in doing so, Turkey is likely to be a drain on Germany if it continues to prop it all.  Yes it will have oil, although control of Baku may delay discovery/development - by Turkey anyway - of the Arabic sources.

  You have wishful thinking of the Dutch joining Germany given the latter's attack on Belgium and the nature of its occupation, since I don't see any factors which will alter that.  Also would Japan or a continuing aggressive Germany be seen as the primary threat?  Ditto with the S African reaction to Germany seizing back SW Africa. 

  As I say Germany regaining its colonies and taking large other areas from defeated powers will cause concern in much of the world including the dominions.  Which as I pointed out is likely to prompt them to spend more on their own defences and be even more willing to joint programmes with Britain.  This could revive the idea of imperial confederation, at least among the white dominions and also ways to boost the strength of the empire as a whole.  You could see Britain finally dropping free trade and laissez faire ideas.  The former is bad in a deeply protectionist world and the latter is always bloody disastrous ! This could see a significant revival of the British industrial and scientific base, boosted by the short-comings of the old system displayed during the war.

  In terms of British politics the defeat and continued threat by a very powerful and aggressive Germany is going to make pacifism extremely unlikely.  It could also see the continued dominance of the left by the Liberal party rather than Labour replacing them, which is less likely to see prolonged Conservative domination and a more progressive stance by both parties.

  In terms of Ireland Pearse's coup attempt may never occur, at least at anything like that level or may be far more effectively defeated.  Coupled with the experience of the Protestant and Catholic forces learning respect for each other on the western front while the extremists are likely to try something at some stage you could see Ireland staying democratic and stable rather than being plunged into repeated conflict and chaos.  It could still end up badly for everybody as OTL but by no means certain. 

  Indian is also more likely to see reform than reaction as the British leadership will see they need every element they can to boost their strength.

  Overall if Germany seeks to stir up problems in British colonies it could be awkward but given the different stances toward colonies, I think Germany would be more vulnerable to any British response.

  Back to naval affairs, in the short term the US will almost certainly do something like their initial 1916 programme, especially as the German threat that was the reason given initially for it is even larger now and they won't have experience from WWI, their's or British, to change their views.  As such their going to build a sizeable but fairly obsolete fleet which is heavily weighed toward big slow battleships and with minimal scouting abilities.  However, with the exception of Japan - who is still likely in this scenario to see Germany as their primary threat - their going to be largely irrelevant to the rest of the world as unlikely to seem that relevant. 

  After this the US may consider building more ships, especially if the naval race elsewhere continues, or they may decide their better off staying isolation and, not fully realising the limitations of their new fleet thinking its perfectly adequate.  Especially since this force is going to be very expensive to maintain and man compared to the small expense costs the US were used to.  .  If they do they may start building some carriers, especially as Britain will almost certainly have a number by this time and other major powers are likely to follow suit and possibly also start building fast BBs or they could continue with building their tradition slow designs. 

  Anyway, I think I've covered most of your points but say if I've missed anything.

The british ships (G/N-class) was heavily influenced by the captured german ships, that got intense inspections by the british admirality. Esp. the protection against water was vastly superior to anything the british had.
The german "light weight"-shells, the kind of superior gun material, the methods to take distance to the enemy ships, everything was analyzed and copied. The german torpedos (60cm-ones) were basically taken and build in their Nelson class otl.

So it is very interesting how you could think that the british ship designs wasn´t significant influenced by the german ships. 
Personally i see british ships in that scenario VASTLY inferior in protection compared to OTL. They will have still no clue how to build ships that don´t sink after minor damages to submerged areas. Compare british and german ships in this area and you get the point. A british ship eat a torpedo and basically was lost, a german one eat 2-3 and go home. 
Same with optical range finding systems...

The lessons learned from TTL battles are:
a.) numbers - the first defeat was because v.Ingenohl fought with the whole fleet against a part of the RN. Losses by gunfire were serious, hit ratio of british ships would have been bad.
b.) jutland would show the weakness of flash, with the lessons learned from the first battle, you could bet that the british would suffer similar casulties... so after TTL jutland the british would improve flash protection... but would they understand that their shells suck? I doubt it, TTL Jutland see different numbers, no run-to-the-south after a Gefechtskehrtwendung... 

Sometimes for sure the british will learn that their shells suck, but we can´t be sure they know in 1916. Maybe later, maybe in a second war? 

The weakness in night fighting will not be discovered. I made the plot, so nope. Communication will be seen as a problem, but that is obvious after the BC force was wiped out.  It is not, repeat not a 1:1 copy of jutland, just the engagement will happen here, the (reduced) RN fight the HSF, with a clash of the scouting forces and - with the QE-class involved the sinking of many british ships by the superior german shooting and blowing up cruisers. The engagement with the GF is less impressive, no crossing the T... just two parallel fleets shelling each other. With some torpedo attacks and a turn (gefechtskehrtwende) by the germans and opening the distances ... 

the major war will be the kleinkrieg, in the channel... read the plot description. With the german front at Boulogne-sur-mare, they can havoc the coastal traffic, esp. from late 14 to mid 15. (after they destroyed a significant part of the RN). 

All sides understood that small units are needed, these need to be reliable (german side - british small ships were fine), mines and subs and fast small boats that could hunt larger cruisers and obsolete armored cruisers.
these will suffer terrible, because they lack any protection against mines/torpedos. So here you could have the british learning (the very hard way) that their ships suck in underwaterprotecion.

The Royal Navy couldn´t build good diesels - otl they gained german sources, forbad the germans to build large diesels. Here - they lack the reliable diesels and their enemy has the good ones. TTL has nothing to do with OTL. 
True - the jump of better and more powerfull steam engines will push speed up the scale, but the question is still "protection versus speed".
With the two different battles, with maybe wrong lessons (possible) out of TTL jutland, the british could even jump on the "more speed is better"-false way. 

THis doesn´t mean the british couldn´t build some 55.000ts G3-class battleships with 26kn, 400mm belt, 200mm deck and 9x18" guns, but the ships itself would not be the great design the OTL ships were. Lack of adequate and working protection against flood make em vulnerable to torpedo/mine-hits.

The G3 are interesting ships, but they are no wonderweapons. They are expensive, lack aft fire, the theoretical speed advantage is not as big as they think... also the concentration on these ships will cause a reaction by other nations. The USA for sure could build easily 4times the numbers of larger and better ships, if they want to do it. Esp. after a war in that the british gained nothing but costs. For sure they could afford to build 20 such ships because with the war ending in late 16, they do not ruin their economy as they did otl, but the question is :will they do it? they will face social unrest, even more as otl, ireland is a bomb that could detonate, not getting anything from the osmans, propably facing a hostile russia (that will not start anything in europe, but - with germany offering them support if they do so) that restart the great game, having unrest in their dominions (australia, new zealand, the south africans) and demands for strong army and navy units here (raising costs again)) it is questionable if such ships will happen and in the numbers. 

Esp. the lack of german patents, secrets and real ships make the british falling behind for 10-20 years in certain technologies... not having these weapons/ships mean they need to do it themself. 


The german navy would not change its tactics... why should they (yes they should, but they wouldn´t). They get forced to change it because of underfounding the expensive battle-line. They get their Mackensens (3-6... depends on the story), but otherwise they hang with 28cm-gun-Hex and 30,5cm-gun-battleships that could no longer hope to crush enlarged QE-ships (that is more realistic in 1916-19, because of the losses they need NUMBERS... so i see 10-15 enlarged QE-class ships, maybe 10x38cm (5x2) or 12x38cm (4x3), with around 26kn, better belt, more deck armor... till 1920/21 they will build them to replace losses.
Repulse and Renown could be build as HMS-Hood-class-ships, just like 4 and repeatet 4 Admiral-class Battlecruisers, with 30-31kn, better armor (basically HMS Hoods)... these will be build till 1920-22, then they build a new - revolutionary new battleship. But before they will build numbers.

For germany this means they face no longer HMS Dreadnought and Orion but these vastly superior 42-45.000ts battleships and 49.000ts Battlecruisers...  but they could not spent the money to counter this... so they look for other methods. 

Your comment about the german colonies make no sense for me.
OTL the colonies worked fine for germany - with the exception of the hereros rebellion in 1904-05. 
Here they have hundredthousends of battlehardened soldiers who could get the offer to move into these areas, in that they could build up a new home. Esp. the soldiers who face trouble after the trench war could use this instead of moving into the USA.

To man a port in say Deutsch-Südwest you need not much. Some older CL, some Pre-DN that get their guns removed, sub-tender, some older t-boats... that is enough for 1917-27. You build up infrastructure, move older weapons to it. Thats it.
The germans knew they could not hold such bases against serious enemy forces... but as a refuling station for 6-12 months, as a thorn in the side of the british empire, they are very usefull. v.Lettow-Vorbeck had shown how a german unit could fight "evil enemies"...

with the belgian congo beeing german you see also significant forced protecting this "goldmine"... 

the colonies allways have the same structure.Put in some army units, some (older) air force groups, later replaced by more modern planes... seaplanes, some tenders, repair facilities, later some docks, yards. 
In the congo you see some fortresses (the germans have an abundancy of heavy guns, from 21cm to 38cm,), a bit concrete, some bunkers and the british get serious headache to take such bases. Add in some minefields, some railroads into the internal, for some base here - voila... have fun to prepare 6 months, 200k soldiers, a battlegroup and later a lot forces to fight in the internal of the colony.

Add in new caledonia and madagscar, the two colonies the germans took from the french, that will give them another headache. 

South africa is angry? Hell, yes... but all the diamonds and gold in Deutsch-Südwest will attract tons of people... in the same time the germans will have lots of unhappy citicens, they could bring into the colonies. 

German ship-building industry, OTL in 1914 the most efficent in the world will grow, lots of german build freighters, around 1922-23 lots of diesel driven ships... these cost the british a lot of jobs (not good in the port areas), 

Russia - the main point is this: Russia wanted war with AH to dominate the balkan. That is done.
They also suffered major casulties in men, material - the tsar was removed and replaced by his uncle (for the young son) in a moderate reformed state.
This is still a major factor, but with a new baltic state, with some poland (out of russian poland) and the romanians taking side (to gain bessarabia) they are pushed to the east. On the balkan they have lost any influence. So what could they do? 
Trying to fight the germans another round? with the similar or worse end? Or look to punish the japanese who insulted em in 1905.. with the support of the germans. Who never had a real problem with russia. And - with UK, the country that had played the great game quite long... and they - the russians could again play that game, for india. 

Japan will keep its taken areas, but pay money for them. Germany took New Caledonia from france for that. They will try to bind the dutch to them, so they also have an operation base for their navy... and another source of oil, rubber, tin and other stuff they need. 
The netherlands in 1914 were neutral and - as far as i know quite pro-german, i can´t say this will be the same in this scenario, but if they are in the Mitteleuropa-concept the germans would push, they could benefit a lot. Still neutral in mlitary things, ordering battleships in german yards, making money... you get the concept. The danes will be very silent, they do not gain what they get OTL, but otherwise they had nothing to fear from germany. Closing the straits is a given, otherwise they are left alone.

Italy - italy was opportunistic. Here italy made lots of money by staying neutral. Italy will not be open hostile to germany or AH, they will be neutral. Their interests in the balkan are doomed, but the question is will this italy (no Mussolini) risk its existence to fight germany? What could they gain? Nothing, just millions of deaths for british glory? Really - i can´t see them doing this. Also - making money with germany helps em a lot. So why risking this? Germany would need italian workers, esp. with france broken and no longer able to absorb the italian workers... i see em going to germany... 

The osmans - here they had minor conflicts, some exterminated arabian rebells, a strong ally with germany who had invested millions and will invest another load of money. Esp. with all debts by france and UK gone, they could happily order in germany. The british insult (the two captured battleships) have burned all bridges, with knowledge about the plans to dismantle the osman empire the wish to work with them will be further reduced.
So the bagdad-railroad will build, the net will be denser and more and more infrastructure - made in germany - will be established. The kirkut-oil will come online, bringing lots of money into the osman bag. 
With german companies holding shares this could be easily the "osman century".. for sure there will be unrest, some troubles, but nothing that would tear it appart. In opposition, the osmans and germans sitting at the sinai, building railroads through palestine and syria will cause a lot troubles in the british parliament. 

As i mentioned, the osmans took over the russian zone of influence in persia... expect the osman army - together with german friends, sitting here. Cyprus, that is difficult. if the british sit here expect strong osman forces hanging around... also more and more forces - mobile forces ready to take the channel. Also railroads to the south, to akkaba, to the gulf of oman. Hard pushed to take over provinces to make life more miserable for the british empire... the osmans will be - next to germany an archenemy of the british. 

Austria OTL was fine till mid1918... here no instability will happen. In opposition, the italians in AH will either leave or accept to be austrians, the austrian army will not tolerate any "rebellions" any more. Italy is way to weak to even say a word... so either accept it or "accept" it. THe balkan is messy, but a strong bulgaria, a partly satisfied romania (in bessarabia) and a "removed" serbia leave greece. What could they do? the osmans as an offical german partner is sarcosant, the same with bulgaria. Greece could accept everything or get wiped out as a political or military force. Propably greece will do nothing... there is still the infight between the king and the pro-Entente-chancelor, who - after the defeat of the entente - will be very calm. 

In this timeline there is no armenian massacre - again you seem to think everything of OTL need to be repeated.
Here the spark for it doesn´t happen at all. Russia face worse defeats earlier, the armenians do not hope for russian rescue.
 
The osman empire is kept together by the german partner, who want a calm and working state, in that they could do buisness.
Some leaders - like Atatürk - will come to existence, they could either change the regime or rise in it. 

A 1918-army could not move quickly through the sinai, a 1928-army, full motorized, with hundreds of bombers, hundreds of fighters, mobile artillery, tanks could do it. Esp. with a finished double-track railroad through palestine, another one going to bagdad and into syria. The british either loose their channel - desaster - or keep calm. I bet they keep calm here. Basically you can move 3 german armies, motorized - from berlin to the sinai in 2 months - peacetime. 1 month if war errupt. 
How fast can the british move significant forces to alexandria?


Or, think about basra... the osmans could build a strong military base here... full of osman and german motorized forces.... i love the british reaction to this. Or subs and cruisers operating in the red sea, the persian gulf From Deutsch-Ostafrika, all in the same time. 
How could the british build 2-4 large armies, significant enough to stop a 3-Army strike by a german army, in the same time protect the british isles from an invasion (even if not possible, do they know it?), build a huge navy, face japanese forces and ambitions in china and the pacific.
Yeah, also russians again looking to india.. .
The OTL british oil comes form the gulf... here it is an unsecure source, they cannot hope to defend. 


In the USA you had no "german-removing" effect as OTL by WW1, so you still have significant german-americans beeing active. Add in the unsolved ireland-question and the USA could be more anti-british as anti-german. Esp. if the second offers interesting terms, contracts and deals - china for example. 

As strange as it sounds, germany loosing tsingtau makes the position of germany much better. So more deals with china (angers japan, germany makes money), helps relationship with the USA in this sector. 

German bases in Kaiser-Wilhelm-Land and Bismarck-Archipel mean the british need signifcant naval and army forces "ready", in case of war. UK has to invest much more in its military, to calm down the dominions, in the same time they cannot defend their blood line (channel of suez) if the germans and osmans want to cut it of, the same germans who allready had surpassed em in industrial output 1914 that will now be even stronger. 

Yes, social reforms, propably some SPD-ruled seasons will reduce the tensions a bit, but every time a conservative german party win an election the british will cry - the same negative "copenhagen the hun"-speeches will be public, will fuel the hate in germany. 

Loosing this war this way mean the british had lost any hope to control or even influence the continent. Best behaviour would be a true peace with germany, accepting its "place" and do not start troubles but try to make economic deals both profit. But i doubt both sides would do it. 

[eurowatch]

Apr 9, 2018 11:12:04 GMT steffen said:

Apr 6, 2018 12:42:14 GMT stevep said:

Japan will keep its taken areas, but pay money for them. Germany took New Caledonia from france for that. They will try to bind the dutch to them, so they also have an operation base for their navy... and another source of oil, rubber, tin and other stuff they need. 
The netherlands in 1914 were neutral and - as far as i know quite pro-german, i can´t say this will be the same in this scenario, but if they are in the Mitteleuropa-concept the germans would push, they could benefit a lot. Still neutral in mlitary things, ordering battleships in german yards, making money... you get the concept. The danes will be very silent, they do not gain what they get OTL, but otherwise they had nothing to fear from germany. Closing the straits is a given, otherwise they are left alone.

Italy - italy was opportunistic. Here italy made lots of money by staying neutral. Italy will not be open hostile to germany or AH, they will be neutral. Their interests in the balkan are doomed, but the question is will this italy (no Mussolini) risk its existence to fight germany? What could they gain? Nothing, just millions of deaths for british glory? Really - i can´t see them doing this. Also - making money with germany helps em a lot. So why risking this? Germany would need italian workers, esp. with france broken and no longer able to absorb the italian workers... i see em going to germany... 

The Netherlands staying a pro-German neutral after the war has ended is very possible, especially if they get lucrative trade agreements and a guarantee of inpendence from Berlin (the Dutch were not German and had no interest in becoming German). As for ordering Battleships in German ports, that was actually considered OTL so three modernised Bayern-class in the early twenties is not out of the question. Japan certainly won't like it but (considering they flat out couldn't afford their current naval exspansion) it is not like they could do much about it. 
After that, depending on how ambitious/offensive-minded they are/threathening Japan is, they may also decide to build a Class of carriers.

I actually think that Italy may have decided to enter the war on the side of the Central Powers if they saw that France was done for and Great Britain was unable to help. It may have been a blatant act of jumping on the winners wagon but this way they had at least some leverage to get Trentino and Austrian Littoral like the CP had promised.

[stevep]

Apr 9, 2018 13:34:37 GMT eurowatch said:

The Netherlands staying a pro-German neutral after the war has ended is very possible, especially if they get lucrative trade agreements and a guarantee of inpendence from Berlin (the Dutch were not German and had no interest in becoming German). As for ordering Battleships in German ports, that was actually considered OTL so three modernised Bayern-class in the early twenties is not out of the question. Japan certainly won't like it but (considering they flat out couldn't afford their current naval exspansion) it is not like they could do much about it. 
After that, depending on how ambitious/offensive-minded they are/threathening Japan is, they may also decide to build a Class of carriers.

I actually think that Italy may have decided to enter the war on the side of the Central Powers if they saw that France was done for and Great Britain was unable to help. It may have been a blatant act of jumping on the winners wagon but this way they had at least some leverage to get Trentino and Austrian Littoral like the CP had promised.

  Its possible but then the experience of Belgium could cool that markedly, as it raises serious questions over the value of any treaty with Germany.  The Dutch did have plans to buy ships from Germany and may do so after the war but that doesn't necessarily mean being allied or even pro-German, other than possibly due to fear.  They might they might not.

  Italy might try jumping in when France looks doomed but then their loot would almost certainly come from a defeated France as I can't see Austria being willing to give up territory to a bitter rival.  Especially since they have excellent defensive lines against Italy and the litteroral area is actually pretty useful economically to Austria.  Not to mention the Croats, who have traditionally been loyal to the dynasty are unlikely to be happy with giving up their coastline to Italy.  More likely they end up with say Tunisia and possibly Corsica and French East Africa.