James G
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Post by James G on May 6, 2018 14:28:46 GMT
If all that went wrong with Operation Eagle Claw went right, on the way in that is, and the April 1980 rescue attempt of hostages in Tehran took place: would it turn into a bloodbath?
Could it have succeeded or gone wrong there in Iran's capital city instead of out in the desert?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 6, 2018 14:38:21 GMT
If all that went wrong with Operation Eagle Claw went right, on the way in that is, and the April 1980 rescue attempt of hostages in Tehran took place: would it turn into a bloodbath? Could it have succeeded or gone wrong there in Iran's capital city instead of out in the desert? I think it will end up in a firefight. |
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insect
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Post by insect on May 7, 2018 4:12:32 GMT
May lead to a carter victory,
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James G
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Post by James G on May 7, 2018 10:05:05 GMT
May lead to a carter victory, Honestly? There would be a rally-around-the-flag effect a bit, but that wouldn't last. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 7, 2018 14:25:27 GMT
May lead to a carter victory, Depends, how many people died during the recuse mission. |
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on May 7, 2018 18:34:24 GMT
I can easily see it still fail when it reaches Tehran, leading to a lot of bloodshed and even more fallout (and a greater American Iran trauma).
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James G
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Post by James G on May 7, 2018 22:41:23 GMT
I can easily see it still fail when it reaches Tehran, leading to a lot of bloodshed and even more fallout (and a greater American Iran trauma). In the middle of the city when it goes wrong - the whole plan was complicated to the extreme! - was my initial thinking and that would mean a lot of casualties on both sides. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 8, 2018 3:14:21 GMT
I can easily see it still fail when it reaches Tehran, leading to a lot of bloodshed and even more fallout (and a greater American Iran trauma). In the middle of the city when it goes wrong - the whole plan was complicated to the extreme! - was my initial thinking and that would mean a lot of casualties on both sides. Could end up in a bigger bloodbath than what happened with only those 8 US servicemen who where killed during the failed operation. |
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Dan
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Post by Dan on May 8, 2018 13:19:12 GMT
I don't know. If the Americans were facing professional regular soldiers, then if they made it to Tehran they would be slaughtered if they were detected on the way in. At this stage, I don't think Iran had any regular forces available as such so the chances of the radar stations for example being manned are fairly slim, manned competently could be as low as zero. Also, the chances of there being a coordinated response is pretty low too. However, what they lack in professionalism and coordination, they would make up for in self belief. However, when fanatics meet trained soldiers, there is generally only one result. If the Iranians can get a heavy machine gun into line of sight without being spotted until they open fire then it's goodnight CH-53 and everyone on board, (think Blackhawk Down writ large). If the Americans have a reasonable dose of luck then they could pull off a minor miracle that would rival the Raid on Entebbe. And we'd have endless revisits of the raid by Hollywood.  |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 8, 2018 13:56:26 GMT
I don't know. If the Americans were facing professional regular soldiers, then if they made it to Tehran they would be slaughtered if they were detected on the way in. At this stage, I don't think Iran had any regular forces available as such so the chances of the radar stations for example being manned are fairly slim, manned competently could be as low as zero. Also, the chances of there being a coordinated response is pretty low too. However, what they lack in professionalism and coordination, they would make up for in self belief. However, when fanatics meet trained soldiers, there is generally only one result. If the Iranians can get a heavy machine gun into line of sight without being spotted until they open fire then it's goodnight CH-53 and everyone on board, (think Blackhawk Down writ large). If the Americans have a reasonable dose of luck then they could pull off a minor miracle that would rival the Raid on Entebbe. And we'd have endless revisits of the raid by Hollywood. The problem I suspect would be them getting to the location where the hostages were being held, freeing them without too much noise and then getting back to wherever the helicopter's were hidden as, as far as I understand they weren't planning on a heli board assault on the location, which would be very likely to get the hostages slaughtered before they could get near them. If it works excellent and the US gets a moral boost while Khomeini's regime gets a red face.  However if they are found out either entering or leaving on then ground then you probably get a large mob on their heels. Which would mean large numbers of dead Iranians, who would technically be civilians, plus dead troops/hostages if they ran out of ammo or got cut off somewhere.  |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 8, 2018 15:29:36 GMT
I don't know. If the Americans were facing professional regular soldiers, then if they made it to Tehran they would be slaughtered if they were detected on the way in. At this stage, I don't think Iran had any regular forces available as such so the chances of the radar stations for example being manned are fairly slim, manned competently could be as low as zero. Also, the chances of there being a coordinated response is pretty low too. However, what they lack in professionalism and coordination, they would make up for in self belief. However, when fanatics meet trained soldiers, there is generally only one result. If the Iranians can get a heavy machine gun into line of sight without being spotted until they open fire then it's goodnight CH-53 and everyone on board, (think Blackhawk Down writ large). If the Americans have a reasonable dose of luck then they could pull off a minor miracle that would rival the Raid on Entebbe. And we'd have endless revisits of the raid by Hollywood. Could end up a early more bloodier version of Black Hawk Down. |
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steffen
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Post by steffen on May 8, 2018 16:24:56 GMT
That mission was guaranteed to fail.
If they try to enter the city they get killed here.
Worse, if they reach the hostages, liberate em and then get killed (all of them).
IN the end, they are all dead.
The mission could not lead to succsess.... also, for Reagan it would be bad for it.
I once saw a tv-show in that they discussed (and tried to base that on facts) that reagan offered the Iran weapons (the iran-contra affair) so the hostages get not free untill he get into power.
Have no clue if that is true, but if it is true there could even be some "informations", so the rescue mission would be betrayed by some republicans with knowledge about that? Sounds strange, but IF the other information (Delay the end of the hostages till our US elections are gone) are true, this could be also true.
Just think about this scenario:
The reagan-team inform the iran that the hostages should be liberated. They get slaughtered, unfortunatly after they had liberated the hostages... after 2 years the truth comes out, with reagan impeached and jailed for that.
What effect on the US politics this would have?
(Hint - having no evidence this is pure speculations)
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 9, 2018 3:51:39 GMT
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 9, 2018 15:35:07 GMT
Ouch that sounds like a real disaster waiting to happen. The failure with the attempt to use rockets to aid the landing doesn't bode well. |
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James G
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Post by James G on May 10, 2018 21:32:42 GMT
Ouch that sounds like a real disaster waiting to happen. The failure with the attempt to use rockets to aid the landing doesn't bode well. RATO is something I have read of before. The promise is there but the reality has always been dangerous: it would be in Tehran. |
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However if they are found out either entering or leaving on then ground then you probably get a large mob on their heels. Which would mean large numbers of dead Iranians, who would technically be civilians, plus dead troops/hostages if they ran out of ammo or got cut off somewhere. 