Future of Kazakhstan

[TheRomanSlayer]

So Kazakhstan had only one ruling president since its independence from the former Soviet Union, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The fact that we don't know any potential successors to him should be a huge red flag because there aren't any other Kazakh politicians who are better known outside Kazakhstan. Moreover, how will a post-Nazarbayev Kazakhstan be like in five to ten years?

[lordroel]

May 7, 2018 2:08:09 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

So Kazakhstan had only one ruling president since its independence from the former Soviet Union, Nursultan Nazarbayev. The fact that we don't know any potential successors to him should be a huge red flag because there aren't any other Kazakh politicians who are better known outside Kazakhstan. Moreover, how will a post-Nazarbayev Kazakhstan be like in five to ten years?

Seems a White Russia and all those dictatorships, we do not know.

[kyng]

Yeah, it's hard to see any promise, really .

Either a successor is picked, and everything continues basically the same as before (maybe a little better, maybe a little worse) - or one isn't found, and everything just falls apart.

[stevep]

Jun 21, 2018 23:01:03 GMT kyng said:

Yeah, it's hard to see any promise, really .

Either a successor is picked, and everything continues basically the same as before (maybe a little better, maybe a little worse) - or one isn't found, and everything just falls apart.

  The latter could be especially troublesome if Putin is still looking for foreign advantures to distract the Russian population from what his kleptocracy is doing to the country.  There's still a substantial minority of Russians in the country so he could try nibbling at the edges as hes been doing with the Ukraine and Georgia in recent years.  Although that might unite the bulk of the population in seeking to oppose this. 

  There might be a prospect of a popular revolution against the autocracy but given what happened in the Arab Spring and the fact that the governments of both Russia and China would seek influence and wouldn't like a truly democratic state on their borders after the overthrow of an autocratic regime I have fears that wouldn't end well.

[lordroel]

Jun 22, 2018 10:41:29 GMT stevep said:

Jun 21, 2018 23:01:03 GMT kyng said:

Yeah, it's hard to see any promise, really .

Either a successor is picked, and everything continues basically the same as before (maybe a little better, maybe a little worse) - or one isn't found, and everything just falls apart.

  The latter could be especially troublesome if Putin is still looking for foreign advantures to distract the Russian population from what his kleptocracy is doing to the country.  There's still a substantial minority of Russians in the country so he could try nibbling at the edges as hes been doing with the Ukraine and Georgia in recent years.  Although that might unite the bulk of the population in seeking to oppose this. 

Would that not get a responds from China stevep , do not think they will like the Russians to take a nibble from a country they share a border with.

[stevep]

Jun 22, 2018 10:46:40 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 22, 2018 10:41:29 GMT stevep said:

  The latter could be especially troublesome if Putin is still looking for foreign advantures to distract the Russian population from what his kleptocracy is doing to the country.  There's still a substantial minority of Russians in the country so he could try nibbling at the edges as hes been doing with the Ukraine and Georgia in recent years.  Although that might unite the bulk of the population in seeking to oppose this. 

Would that not get a responds from China stevep , do not think they will like the Russians to take a nibble from a country they share a border with.

  It might well but could depend on the exact situation.  If their both still in loose co-operation against the west and the nibbles are largely areas of little interest to China they might not be too opposed.  Especially since it might give a basis for claims on disputed territories with Chinese populations or it prompted the rump Kazakhstan to look towards China for security.

  Alternatively it might as you say cause increasing tensions between the two if other matters have changed.  Really given its growing economic and technological strength and claims on large areas in Siberia China is the power that Russia really ought to be concerned about.

[kyng]

Jun 22, 2018 10:41:29 GMT stevep said:

Jun 21, 2018 23:01:03 GMT kyng said:

Yeah, it's hard to see any promise, really .

Either a successor is picked, and everything continues basically the same as before (maybe a little better, maybe a little worse) - or one isn't found, and everything just falls apart.

  The latter could be especially troublesome if Putin is still looking for foreign advantures to distract the Russian population from what his kleptocracy is doing to the country.  There's still a substantial minority of Russians in the country so he could try nibbling at the edges as hes been doing with the Ukraine and Georgia in recent years.  Although that might unite the bulk of the population in seeking to oppose this. 

  There might be a prospect of a popular revolution against the autocracy but given what happened in the Arab Spring and the fact that the governments of both Russia and China would seek influence and wouldn't like a truly democratic state on their borders after the overthrow of an autocratic regime I have fears that wouldn't end well.

Yeah, good point: they might well try that, especially if whatever new government emerges in Kazakhstan becomes hostile to the ethnic Russians . 

I'm not sure how bothered Russia and China would be by having a democratic state at their borders: after all, they both seem to be fine with Mongolia. I think they'd only get annoyed if this democratic Kazakhstan became a big US or Western ally. 

[stevep]

Jun 27, 2018 21:25:24 GMT kyng said:

Jun 22, 2018 10:41:29 GMT stevep said:

  The latter could be especially troublesome if Putin is still looking for foreign advantures to distract the Russian population from what his kleptocracy is doing to the country.  There's still a substantial minority of Russians in the country so he could try nibbling at the edges as hes been doing with the Ukraine and Georgia in recent years.  Although that might unite the bulk of the population in seeking to oppose this. 

  There might be a prospect of a popular revolution against the autocracy but given what happened in the Arab Spring and the fact that the governments of both Russia and China would seek influence and wouldn't like a truly democratic state on their borders after the overthrow of an autocratic regime I have fears that wouldn't end well.

Yeah, good point: they might well try that, especially if whatever new government emerges in Kazakhstan becomes hostile to the ethnic Russians . 

I'm not sure how bothered Russia and China would be by having a democratic state at their borders: after all, they both seem to be fine with Mongolia. I think they'd only get annoyed if this democratic Kazakhstan became a big US or Western ally. 

  Well one potential problem there is that unlike Mongolia Kazakhstan is not only markedly bigger but largely Muslim.  Which since it borders the restless Xinjiang province might be a problem for China.

 

[futurist]

Jun 27, 2018 22:40:18 GMT stevep said:

Jun 27, 2018 21:25:24 GMT kyng said:

Yeah, good point: they might well try that, especially if whatever new government emerges in Kazakhstan becomes hostile to the ethnic Russians . 

I'm not sure how bothered Russia and China would be by having a democratic state at their borders: after all, they both seem to be fine with Mongolia. I think they'd only get annoyed if this democratic Kazakhstan became a big US or Western ally. 

  Well one potential problem there is that unlike Mongolia Kazakhstan is not only markedly bigger but largely Muslim.  Which since it borders the restless Xinjiang province might be a problem for China.

It's worth noting that Kazakh Muslims are very moderate, though:

www.unz.com/akarlin/map-death-for-apostasy/

Also, for what it's worth, as of right now, I am tempted to think that there genuinely would be a transition to democracy in Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev's death. After all, Nazarbayev really does genuinely appear to want what is best for Kazakhstan and the ethnic Russian percentage in Kazakhstan is much less than it was back in 1991--thus making democracy much less risky for Kazakhstan (if Russians would have remained a majority or a plurality of the electorate in Kazakhstan, they could have tried getting Kazakhstan and Russia to form a union or something).

[TheRomanSlayer]

This came out of left field, but this is somehow related to the thread:

Nursultan Nazarbayev resigns after thirty years of rule in Kazakhstan.

Nazarbayev's sudden resignation was not something that I would have expected, and the replacement is a virtual unknown.

[James G]

Mar 22, 2019 4:23:35 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

This came out of left field, but this is somehow related to the thread:

Nursultan Nazarbayev resigns after thirty years of rule in Kazakhstan.

Nazarbayev's sudden resignation was not something that I would have expected, and the replacement is a virtual unknown.

We have a thread over in Politics & Current Affairs for this issue, one recently created.
That aside, the resignation was quite the surprise!

[Middlesex_Toffeeman]

Jun 29, 2018 20:10:13 GMT futurist said:

Jun 27, 2018 22:40:18 GMT stevep said:

  Well one potential problem there is that unlike Mongolia Kazakhstan is not only markedly bigger but largely Muslim.  Which since it borders the restless Xinjiang province might be a problem for China.

It's worth noting that Kazakh Muslims are very moderate, though:

www.unz.com/akarlin/map-death-for-apostasy/

Also, for what it's worth, as of right now, I am tempted to think that there genuinely would be a transition to democracy in Kazakhstan after Nazarbayev's death. After all, Nazarbayev really does genuinely appear to want what is best for Kazakhstan and the ethnic Russian percentage in Kazakhstan is much less than it was back in 1991--thus making democracy much less risky for Kazakhstan (if Russians would have remained a majority or a plurality of the electorate in Kazakhstan, they could have tried getting Kazakhstan and Russia to form a union or something).

That map seems a bit dodgy as I highly doubt all European Muslims support death for apostasy.