James G
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Post by James G on May 19, 2018 16:53:30 GMT
China and India continue to rise in strength through economic and military means. Their interests will certainly collide and they have a history of fighting. Is war between them possible in the near future? What sparks are there to cause a conflict?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 19, 2018 17:46:06 GMT
China and India continue to rise in strength through economic and military means. Their interests will certainly collide and they have a history of fighting. Is war between them possible in the near future? What sparks are there to cause a conflict? If 2.6 Billion People Go To War: India vs. China
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 20, 2018 9:24:46 GMT
China and India continue to rise in strength through economic and military means. Their interests will certainly collide and they have a history of fighting. Is war between them possible in the near future? What sparks are there to cause a conflict? If 2.6 Billion People Go To War: India vs. China
Interesting, that suggests that India could do better than I was thinking. Suggest that it has a much stronger air force than China if the article is correct, which would be important. As it says the land war is likely to be fairly dead-locked. Chinese vulnerability to Indian pressure in the Indian Ocean could be important but China is establishing a lot of influence in the region. Also its a major trade route for a lot of other powers so Indian would have to be very careful about interfering with international trade in 3rd country flags. Going to be difficult telling if a ship saying its traveling to Japan or Malaysia say is actually heading for China.
Sounds like such a conflict would be messy and expensive but probably indecisive.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 20, 2018 9:34:33 GMT
Interesting, that suggests that India could do better than I was thinking. Suggest that it has a much stronger air force than China if the article is correct, which would be important. As it says the land war is likely to be fairly dead-locked. Chinese vulnerability to Indian pressure in the Indian Ocean could be important but China is establishing a lot of influence in the region. Also its a major trade route for a lot of other powers so Indian would have to be very careful about interfering with international trade in 3rd country flags. Going to be difficult telling if a ship saying its traveling to Japan or Malaysia say is actually heading for China. Sounds like such a conflict would be messy and expensive but probably indecisive.
Here is another one: This is how it could go down if China and India went to war
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kyng
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Post by kyng on May 20, 2018 18:03:42 GMT
Interesting thread . This sounds more plausible than the "US vs. China" war that people always seem to talk about. US vs. China isn't happening due to the economic co-dependence, but India vs. China doesn't really have that issue. I can see, for example, this starting out as an India vs. Pakistan war, with China intervening on Pakistan's side. In this scenario, might nuclear weapons be used? As stated in the article that lordroel linked to, both India and China have "No first use" policies; however, Pakistan does not. Instead, their policy is that they will only use nuclear weapons defensively. Still, I find it very unlikely that they would be used even then: if they were, then the consequences would be catastrophic for all . Also, where do Western nations and Russia come into this? I expect that if they're involved at all, then they'd be on the Indian side; however, I think they'd offer only limited assistance. I certainly can't see them doing any actual fighting.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 20, 2018 18:04:54 GMT
Interesting thread . This sounds more plausible than the "US vs. China" war that people always seem to talk about. US vs. China isn't happening due to the economic co-dependence, but India vs. China doesn't really have that issue. I can see, for example, this starting out as an India vs. Pakistan war, with China intervening on Pakistan's side. In this scenario, might nuclear weapons be used? As stated in the article that lordroel linked to, both India and China have "No first use" policies; however, Pakistan does not. Instead, their policy is that they will only use nuclear weapons defensively. Still, I find it very unlikely that they would be used even then: if they were, then the consequences would be catastrophic for all . Also, where do Western nations and Russia come into this? I expect that if they're involved at all, then they'd be on the Indian side; however, I think they'd offer only limited assistance. I certainly can't see them doing any actual fighting. A China Vs India War will result that Pakistan joining China.
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James G
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Post by James G on May 20, 2018 18:24:34 GMT
Interesting thread . This sounds more plausible than the "US vs. China" war that people always seem to talk about. US vs. China isn't happening due to the economic co-dependence, but India vs. China doesn't really have that issue. I can see, for example, this starting out as an India vs. Pakistan war, with China intervening on Pakistan's side. In this scenario, might nuclear weapons be used? As stated in the article that lordroel linked to, both India and China have "No first use" policies; however, Pakistan does not. Instead, their policy is that they will only use nuclear weapons defensively. Still, I find it very unlikely that they would be used even then: if they were, then the consequences would be catastrophic for all . Also, where do Western nations and Russia come into this? I expect that if they're involved at all, then they'd be on the Indian side; however, I think they'd offer only limited assistance. I certainly can't see them doing any actual fighting. A China Vs India War will result that Pakistan joining China. I'd assume so, but you never know. Pakistan might decide that the war doesn't effect them and sit it out. India has long been making moves behind Pakistan - Afghanistan and the 'stans - to threaten their rear. Or Pakistan might not agree with the war if China were to start it. There are many variables to alliances in any conflict: in history, nations have walked away from allies rather than fight.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on May 30, 2018 11:28:04 GMT
Such a war would probably remain rather small-scale. The Himalayas aren't the best area to be fighting a major ground (or even air) war. Navally, I could see the Indians trying to leverage their control over the Indian Ocean to cut off part of the Chinese trade, but that will probably just be diverted anyways, and it might upset some other parties. There just aren't very many places where we can realistically expect them to clash.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 30, 2018 14:12:04 GMT
Such a war would probably remain rather small-scale. The Himalayas aren't the best area to be fighting a major ground (or even air) war. Navally, I could see the Indians trying to leverage their control over the Indian Ocean to cut off part of the Chinese trade, but that will probably just be diverted anyways, and it might upset some other parties. There just aren't very many places where we can realistically expect them to clash. Do you mean a small scale war according to previous wars ore a small scale war according to how a conflict would look like between the two countries with the largest populations on the face of the planet, any conflict between them would be massive with losses.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on May 30, 2018 14:58:30 GMT
Such a war would probably remain rather small-scale. The Himalayas aren't the best area to be fighting a major ground (or even air) war. Navally, I could see the Indians trying to leverage their control over the Indian Ocean to cut off part of the Chinese trade, but that will probably just be diverted anyways, and it might upset some other parties. There just aren't very many places where we can realistically expect them to clash. Do you mean a small scale war according to previous wars ore a small scale war according to how a conflict would look like between the two countries with the largest populations on the face of the planet, any conflict between them would be massive with losses.
I suspect with the terrain if either/both sides sought to commit substrantial forces to front line fighting, say 100k+ then they could easily suffer their greatest losses from frostbite, hypothermia and the like as well as the problems of fighting at very high altitudes.
Even in India's NE provinces, east of Bangladesh I suspect India could reinforce the defenders by land more easily than the Chinese over the mountains there.
Of course a lot depends on the actual quality of the forces involved, in terms of a wide range of issues, including leadership, training, equipment, logistical support and probably most of all morale. While China especially has greatly increased military spending whether that has been spent that well we wouldn't really know until the military is used in serious combat. Ditto with India.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 30, 2018 15:02:04 GMT
Do you mean a small scale war according to previous wars ore a small scale war according to how a conflict would look like between the two countries with the largest populations on the face of the planet, any conflict between them would be massive with losses. I suspect with the terrain if either/both sides sought to commit substrantial forces to front line fighting, say 100k+ then they could easily suffer their greatest losses from frostbite, hypothermia and the like as well as the problems of fighting at very high altitudes. Even in India's NE provinces, east of Bangladesh I suspect India could reinforce the defenders by land more easily than the Chinese over the mountains there. Of course a lot depends on the actual quality of the forces involved, in terms of a wide range of issues, including leadership, training, equipment, logistical support and probably most of all morale. While China especially has greatly increased military spending whether that has been spent that well we wouldn't really know until the military is used in serious combat. Ditto with India.
Last time India and China fought was the Sino-Indian War of 1962, i would see the number of deaths in any 2nd Sino-Indian War be what you mention stevep. A Sino-Indian War in 2017 will not be a repeat of 1962
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on May 30, 2018 20:28:47 GMT
I indeed meant small for the size of the involved countries. The logistics to really attack the other just aren't there and would be very hard to build up due to the terrain.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on May 31, 2018 3:39:17 GMT
I indeed meant small for the size of the involved countries. The logistics to really attack the other just aren't there and would be very hard to build up due to the terrain. But still any combat will number into casualties around the 10,000s ore more depending on ho heavy the fighting is, doubt we will see any major India versus China naval engagements during the war.
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raunchel
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Post by raunchel on May 31, 2018 9:49:22 GMT
I indeed meant small for the size of the involved countries. The logistics to really attack the other just aren't there and would be very hard to build up due to the terrain. But still any combat will number into casualties around the 10,000s ore more depending on ho heavy the fighting is, doubt we will see any major India versus China naval engagements during the war. Yes, so it will be a small and limited war and probably a stalemate. Unless all the things you hear about the quality of the Indian arms industry are true. Then the Chinese have an advantage, but not enough of one to force a victory beyond perhaps moving the border to the next valley and establish a new status quo. But that already is doubtful.
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