Could the Graf Spee have won the Battle of the River Plate?

[lordroel]

Could the Graf Spee have won the Battle of the River Plate?

79 years the German battlecruiser Graf Spee scuttled herself in order to avoid the battlecruiser from being interned for the duration of the war, but could the Graf Spee have a change of fighting the three British warships. 



In her battle with the three British cruisers, Graf Spee took three 203mm (8″) shells from the heavy cruiser Exeter, and suffered seventeen 152mm (6″) hits from the light cruisers, although many simply shattered on her armor. Damage overall was minor, and cost him the lives of 36 men with another 59 wounded. She was still in perfect fighting condition. However - fighting condition wasn’t what Langsdorff needed. He needed her to get from Uruguay all the way back to Germany, and the battle damage made that largely impossible. One of the 203mm (8″) shells had destroyed the purification plants for water and fuel oil. He also had suffered a sizable 6′ (about 1.8 meter) hole in his bow from a 152mm (6″) shell, which made it impossible to safely cross the stormy Atlantic. This effectively scuttled Langsdorff’s true goal - which was to get back to ultimately be able to get back to Germany.

In terms of raw combat ability, Admiral Graf Spee was still capable of making her top speed (about 28 knots), and had enough fuel to sprint for 16 straight days at such a speed. She had only 186 rounds of 283mm (11.1″) left over her original 600, but had expended all her base-fuse High-Explosive rounds (200), her most effective tool against British cruisers, and all but 16 nose-fuse HE rounds. She had 170 Armor-Piercing shells left. Her 150mm (5.9″) ammunition was down to 50%, while her 105mm (4.1″) ammunition was comparatively barely touched. She also still had her six torpedoes remaining.

The British force was in considerably worse state. Exeter was down for the count, both her forward turrets disabled, with 61 killed and 23 wounded, and suffering a totally of 7 direct hits, was utterly crippled and down for the count.

Of the two light cruisers, only Ajax was damaged, but the damage had, among other things, disabled both her aft turrets, leaving her on four guns, with 7 killed and 5 wounded. She was of limited combat ability, and would not be able to effectively engage the German cruiser again. Achilles was the only British cruiser capable of battle after the engagement, suffering only 4 killed and minimal damage, but she was also extremely low on ammunition, having not even a quarter load (She had only 358 shells of 1600 carried fully loaded) - she couldn’t fight for much more than 10 minutes if needed.

The British did have respite in the fact the Cumberland, a County-class heavy cruiser, was to show up that evening, but if the battle commenced again, it would be her largely alone against the Admiral Graf Spee, and it is unlikely she would succeed where three cruisers the day before had failed, even with Achilles helping her for a short while.

Had Langsdorff re-engaged the next day instead of scuttling his ship, it is very likely he would’ve won the following action, and escaped into the Atlantic. However, he likely would’ve sustained more damage, and he would face considerable risk in crossing the Atlantic in these conditions.

The simple fact to remember about the Battle of the River Plate is that Langsdorff could not risk much in the way of damage to his ship, and effective as his ships’ armament was, the ship was not well protected against 203mm (8″) shellfire, and even 152mm (6″) fire could cause considerable damage to unprotected areas and ruin his seaworthiness in rough waters. Given these limitations, the only way for him to ‘win’ the Battle of the River Plate and get back to Germany safely was to not fight the battle at all, and instead disengage when he saw he had opposition. Tactically, he could fight all the British had on hand to throw at him. He actually defeated the British squadron in the battle, but what damage they did to Admiral Graf Spee was enough. Adding in the deception that far more powerful forces than just one heavy cruiser was reinforcing the battered squadron only sealed Admiral Graf Spee’s fate in Langsdorff’s eyes, and thus he scuttled his ship.

Taken from Quora with article named: Could the Graf Spee have won the Battle of the River Plate?

[stevep]

   Lordroel

  As you say possibly the best bet would be to avoid the battle if he could.  Have heard it was down to ~26kts top speed due to the time at sea but even at 28 kts the British ships would have been faster, although in a stern chase Langsdorff might have had a better chance of avoiding as much damage, although firing at a longer range its likely more ammo would be used up on both sides.  Mind you none of the ships involved had radar so he might have slipped away during the night.  The likelihood of being found would have been increased as the RN now knew where he was and you would have had a/c searching for him as well as other warships closing in on the region.  Its still possible that it could escape back to Germany but it does have a long way to go with a lot of busy shipping lanes to get through so it could be a tempestuous voyage.

  IIRC Langsdorff's orders were to avoid combat but when the British squadron was sighted he mistakenly identified it as only 2 DD and a CL rather than a CA [heavy cruiser] and 2CLs.  Harwood, commanding the RN force had given orders to his forces to attack in two squadrons, the Exeter in one and the two lighter units, Ajax and Achilles in the other to split Graf Spee's fire which did work fairly well.

  Going back to the historical situation after the battle if the ship did sail before Cumberland arrives then I suspect the two CLs would have sought to track the Germans while reinforcements arrived.  With the damage to the Spee I suspect it would have had problems escaping without at least another clash.  If say with the three RN ships in the area even if it escaped it would probably have used up most/all of the available ammo, especially for the 11" guns.

  Checking on the Wiki entry when Spee left harbour to scuttle on the evening of the 17th an overwhelming force - at least compared to it - the CV Ark Royal, BC Renow and 3 more cruisers were due to arrive in the region.  It also said that the ammo for the 11" guns was only sufficient for about 20 minutes firing so looking grimmer than I was think for it to escape.  If it could avoid damage for that time period the Cumberland, with 8x8" guns could potentially do a lot of damage, although it would probably face fire from the Spee's 6" secondaries.  [Although uncertain how much they would have known about how little ammo had been used but they would have known a lot had been used and Harwood's forces were used aggressively as before so would expect that to continue.]

  To summarise, my belief, for what its worth, is that the Spee might have had a decent chance to reach Germany if it had successfully broken from Harwood's force without a serious fight, although it could still be caught.  After the battle and especially if it waited until the evening of 17th before leaving I would suspect there would be relatively little chance of it escaping.  It would need to break contact with Harwood's force, despite the closed water of the estuary and then avoid both it and the approaching larger force, which with the Ark's a/c would have a much greater search capacity.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Dec 17, 2018 21:47:47 GMT stevep said:

   the CV Ark Royal, BC Renow and 3 more cruisers were due to arrive in the region.  It also said that the ammo for the 11" guns was only sufficient for about 20 minutes firing so looking grimmer than I was think for it to escape.  

  Steve

But even if the Graf Spee had gotten here two weeks she wanted in the port, she would still scuttle herself as i do not think Langsdorff would be crazy enough to go head to head with one British carrier and one battleship.

[stevep]

Dec 18, 2018 4:51:28 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 17, 2018 21:47:47 GMT stevep said:

   the CV Ark Royal, BC Renow and 3 more cruisers were due to arrive in the region.  It also said that the ammo for the 11" guns was only sufficient for about 20 minutes firing so looking grimmer than I was think for it to escape.  

  Steve

But even if the Graf Spee had gotten here two weeks she wanted in the port, she would still scuttle herself as i do not think Langsdorff would be crazy enough to go head to head with one British carrier and one battleship.

  Agreed, if she had been there for two weeks you would have had overwhelming RN forces in the region to catch her if she tried to run.  Then scuttling would be very likely again for the same reasons as Langsdorff thought it was necessary OTL because he at least suspected those forces were already out there.

[lordroel]

Dec 18, 2018 9:13:48 GMT stevep said:

Dec 18, 2018 4:51:28 GMT lordroel said:

But even if the Graf Spee had gotten here two weeks she wanted in the port, she would still scuttle herself as i do not think Langsdorff would be crazy enough to go head to head with one British carrier and one battleship.

  Agreed, if she had been there for two weeks you would have had overwhelming RN forces in the region to catch her if she tried to run.  Then scuttling would be very likely again for the same reasons as Langsdorff thought it was necessary OTL because he at least suspected those forces were already out there.

So lets say the Graf Spee does after a two week stay try to out run, would the CV Ark Royal be used to strike at here with here planes while the rest of the British ships follow here ore are we going to see a duel between a damged German battlecruiser and a British battleship.

[stevep]

Dec 18, 2018 17:45:15 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 18, 2018 9:13:48 GMT stevep said:

  Agreed, if she had been there for two weeks you would have had overwhelming RN forces in the region to catch her if she tried to run.  Then scuttling would be very likely again for the same reasons as Langsdorff thought it was necessary OTL because he at least suspected those forces were already out there.

So lets say the Graf Spee does after a two week stay try to out run, would the CV Ark Royal be used to strike at here with here planes while the rest of the British ships follow here ore are we going to see a duel between a damged German battlecruiser and a British battleship.

  Might depend on the circumstances.  Probably a break-out attempt would be made at night so the Ark's a/c could well not get a look in unless the Spee managed to avoid the RN and get into the open sea, in which case her a/c would be heavily involved in locating her and attacking her until the other ships could catch her. 

   The RN did do a lot of work on night fighting and had by this time, presuming some of Harwood's force didn't get sent to the Falklands or further afield for repairs and refueling etc, 6 cruisers, and a BC so should be able to catch her in a break-out attempt.  Although the Plate estuary is pretty wide there are probably fairly limited channels and people in Montevideo would be able to report her leaving so surprise wouldn't be an issue.  Coupled with her damage and limited ammo I can't really see her getting far so think that scuttling her in that circumstance would probably be the best thing for the crew as otherwise a lot could well die.

[paul]

Graff Spee could manage without the oil purification plants and cruise for 16 days back to Germany.

Besides German reconstruction of the ships log has revealed the oil purification unit was not effected by battle damage.

Langsdorff should have either chase down and sunk the Exeter and other cruisers or back away from any engagement in the first place and make good an escape. All the RN cruisers were short on fuel and would have to abandon the pursuit after the first day.

[stevep]

Dec 18, 2018 20:58:09 GMT paul said:

Graff Spee could manage without the oil purification plants and cruise for 16 days back to Germany.

Besides German reconstruction of the ships log has revealed the oil purification unit was not effected by battle damage.

Langsdorff should have either chase down and sunk the Exeter and other cruisers or back away from any engagement in the first place and make good an escape. All the RN cruisers were short on fuel and would have to abandon the pursuit after the first day.

  He could probably have risked closing to sink the Exeter but would have been unable to catch the others unless he was able to get a big hit on them and would have taken more damage in such an action.    Trying to avoid a battle in the 1st place may have been a better bet.

  Its difficult to see how the ship could have got back to Germany as the British now had a good idea where it was and other forces would have been closing in.  Cruising at lower speed would preserve fuel and minimise further damage but increases the chance of being located again and probably sunk fairly quickly once that occurs.  Definitely so if it waits until say the 15th to come out again.  This would mean another battle, with a strong RN force probably seeing further damage and using up most/all of the 11" shells especially  while the Ark Royal force was less than two days away. 

[paul]

If Langsdorff backs off contact on the morning [of contact] they will not be followed , and even if they do track they will have to fall out of pursuit after 10-12 hours due to fuel shortage.

Then Langsdorff is free. No way RN could find AGS on the open ocean, its 15 million miles sq. Certainly mid to late war , they had enough assets but not at the start.

O'Hara reports they had 16 days at cruise speed which is about 7000nm. Could easily met up with the Dithmarschen tanker and disappear into the Pacific.

[stevep]

Dec 20, 2018 6:19:31 GMT paul said:

If Langsdorff backs off contact on the morning [of contact] they will not be followed , and even if they do track they will have to fall out of pursuit after 10-12 hours due to fuel shortage.

Then Langsdorff is free. No way RN could find AGS on the open ocean, its 15 million miles sq. Certainly mid to late war , they had enough assets but not at the start.

O'Hara reports they had 16 days at cruise speed which is about 7000nm. Could easily met up with the Dithmarschen tanker and disappear into the Pacific.

  The entire ocean is large but Britain now has a clear report of its location.  Even if the Spee breaks contact by changing direction and steaming rapidly, which will consume its remaining fuel pretty rapidly its still in a relatively small area.

  Furthermore Harwood's force, even if it has fuel shortages can follow to a degree.  Also Exeter has two seaplanes and the Ajax class one plane each so they can continue tracking it by air at least until nightfall, which gives a good chance of relocating it the following day.  Don't forget its December which in the southern hemisphere means pretty much midsummer, so days are long.  Other forces will be steaming to the area and once the Ark gets a contact, which seems likely, it will be pretty much game over.  Given the damage to the Spee and the limited 11" and 6" shells left even the Cumberland could be a serious threat to it. 

[paul]

The thread is could Langsdorff win. The answer is yes , he was not supposed to do battle with superior forces but return home. Had he fallowed orders he would have the fuel issue is not an issue. Harwood's was running low on fuel and could not pursuit for more than 1/2 day , which should allow Langsdorff to escape to the south and meet up with the Dithmarschen tanker and disappear into the Pacific.

If he does battle he still can win by chasing down crippling EXETER and force Harwood to close to assist the sinking Exeter . He had enough ammo to cripple the rest oh Harwood's squadron, so he still can escape.

[stevep]

Dec 20, 2018 16:20:31 GMT paul said:

The thread is could Langsdorff win. The answer is yes , he was not supposed to do battle with superior forces but return home. Had he fallowed orders he would have the fuel issue is not an issue. Harwood's was running low on fuel and could not pursuit for more than 1/2 day , which should allow Langsdorff to escape to the south and meet up with the Dithmarschen tanker and disappear into the Pacific.

If he does battle he still can win by chasing down crippling EXETER and force Harwood to close to assist the sinking Exeter . He had enough ammo to cripple the rest oh Harwood's squadron, so he still can escape.

  If he decides to avoid battle and manages to do so - which isn't certain as the British forces are faster - then he has a chance of making it home, or alternatively doing what your suggesting and heading SE to enter the Pacific and link up with a tanker.  The latter would probably extend his life as a raider but he's pushing his luck doing the latter and is likely to get caught sooner or later.  Although since the British are coming from the south he has to head in a northwards direction at 1st or drive through them, which would almost certainly cause a battle.

  If he does battle then he might be able to force a longer one and also damage the two CLs but that would almost certainly use up virtually all his 11" ammo and most of his remaining 6" shells, which would leave him very vulnerable in any further encounter.  Although the RN always has the option of the Exeter surrendering, which means it would almost certainly be scuttled as it couldn't be of any use to the Germans and the two Ajax's withdrawing to continue tracking the Germans as long as they could.  Which might be some time using their a/c.

  As I understand it he fought because he wrong identified the British as a CL and two DDs which would be considerable inferior to him, which is probably why he fought and possibly why he withdrew once he had had the chance after crippling Exeter.

[lordroel]

Dec 20, 2018 16:48:45 GMT stevep said:

Dec 20, 2018 16:20:31 GMT paul said:

The thread is could Langsdorff win. The answer is yes , he was not supposed to do battle with superior forces but return home. Had he fallowed orders he would have the fuel issue is not an issue. Harwood's was running low on fuel and could not pursuit for more than 1/2 day , which should allow Langsdorff to escape to the south and meet up with the Dithmarschen tanker and disappear into the Pacific.

If he does battle he still can win by chasing down crippling EXETER and force Harwood to close to assist the sinking Exeter . He had enough ammo to cripple the rest oh Harwood's squadron, so he still can escape.

  If he decides to avoid battle and manages to do so - which isn't certain as the British forces are faster - then he has a chance of making it home, or alternatively doing what your suggesting and heading SE to enter the Pacific and link up with a tanker.  The latter would probably extend his life as a raider but he's pushing his luck doing the latter and is likely to get caught sooner or later.  Although since the British are coming from the south he has to head in a northwards direction at 1st or drive through them, which would almost certainly cause a battle.

  If he does battle then he might be able to force a longer one and also damage the two CLs but that would almost certainly use up virtually all his 11" ammo and most of his remaining 6" shells, which would leave him very vulnerable in any further encounter.  Although the RN always has the option of the Exeter surrendering, which means it would almost certainly be scuttled as it couldn't be of any use to the Germans and the two Ajax's withdrawing to continue tracking the Germans as long as they could.  Which might be some time using their a/c.

  As I understand it he fought because he wrong identified the British as a CL and two DDs which would be considerable inferior to him, which is probably why he fought and possibly why he withdrew once he had had the chance after crippling Exeter.

stevep, linking up with any German supply ship means sening out a message, could the British read the German once at this point.

[stevep]

Dec 20, 2018 17:11:16 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 20, 2018 16:48:45 GMT stevep said:

  If he decides to avoid battle and manages to do so - which isn't certain as the British forces are faster - then he has a chance of making it home, or alternatively doing what your suggesting and heading SE to enter the Pacific and link up with a tanker.  The latter would probably extend his life as a raider but he's pushing his luck doing the latter and is likely to get caught sooner or later.  Although since the British are coming from the south he has to head in a northwards direction at 1st or drive through them, which would almost certainly cause a battle.

  If he does battle then he might be able to force a longer one and also damage the two CLs but that would almost certainly use up virtually all his 11" ammo and most of his remaining 6" shells, which would leave him very vulnerable in any further encounter.  Although the RN always has the option of the Exeter surrendering, which means it would almost certainly be scuttled as it couldn't be of any use to the Germans and the two Ajax's withdrawing to continue tracking the Germans as long as they could.  Which might be some time using their a/c.

  As I understand it he fought because he wrong identified the British as a CL and two DDs which would be considerable inferior to him, which is probably why he fought and possibly why he withdrew once he had had the chance after crippling Exeter.

stevep , linking up with any German supply ship means sening out a message, could the British read the German once at this point.

I don't think so at this point. It was 2-3 years later we really started breaking the codes regularly. If we knew what wavelength it was working on there might be the possibility of an intercept but that would only give a bearing for the ship and you would need two or more locations detecting such a message to get a full location. I think the supply ships kept to specific areas, probably pretty far from the main trade routes to avoid detection and if the raider knows this it should be able to get a message through for a meeting.

[lordroel]

Dec 20, 2018 22:07:27 GMT stevep said:

Dec 20, 2018 17:11:16 GMT lordroel said:

stevep , linking up with any German supply ship means sening out a message, could the British read the German once at this point.

I don't think so at this point. It was 2-3 years later we really started breaking the codes regularly. If we knew what wavelength it was working on there might be the possibility of an intercept but that would only give a bearing for the ship and you would need two or more locations detecting such a message to get a full location. I think the supply ships kept to specific areas, probably pretty far from the main trade routes to avoid detection and if the raider knows this it should be able to get a message through for a meeting.

Doubt many German tanks where out there in December 1939- January 1940.