stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 26, 2019 8:14:51 GMT
Since the issue of early Red revolution has been brought up, who might the most likely candidates to spearhead them? And in which nations would said uprisings occur, if any?
Only a gut feeling but I suspect it could well be somewhere like Russia simply because, baring drastic reform the level of government incompetence and corruption makes it so weak. Plus being an autocratic state it would have little or no 'give' to offer moderate reformers a chance of achieving their aims peacefully by argument rather than revolution. It should be noted that the only countries that have achieved an autocratic communist state, by their own efforts were imperial Russia, war-torn China and Cuba. Possibly by some measures Venezuela but the fact open resistance is still not only possible but not quickly crushed means it doesn't really qualify as a full scale communist state. Other than that I think every other national state with an openly communist government has had it impose on them by force.
As such Russia or possibly the Austrian empire would seem to be the best candidates in Europe anyway.
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Zyobot
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Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
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Post by Zyobot on Jun 26, 2019 12:11:26 GMT
Since the issue of early Red revolution has been brought up, who might the most likely candidates to spearhead them? And in which nations would said uprisings occur, if any?
Only a gut feeling but I suspect it could well be somewhere like Russia simply because, baring drastic reform the level of government incompetence and corruption makes it so weak. Plus being an autocratic state it would have little or no 'give' to offer moderate reformers a chance of achieving their aims peacefully by argument rather than revolution. It should be noted that the only countries that have achieved an autocratic communist state, by their own efforts were imperial Russia, war-torn China and Cuba. Possibly by some measures Venezuela but the fact open resistance is still not only possible but not quickly crushed means it doesn't really qualify as a full scale communist state. Other than that I think every other national state with an openly communist government has had it impose on them by force.
As such Russia or possibly the Austrian empire would seem to be the best candidates in Europe anyway.
...Well, damn. I'd ask how to prevent a socialist revolution from overtaking the established order early, but you seem to have explained how that's an unlikely prospect. What about the US or UK around this time, will their unhinged hyper-capitalism cause a left-wing backlash that's exacerbated by knowledge of 20th Century communist powers?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 26, 2019 14:59:02 GMT
Only a gut feeling but I suspect it could well be somewhere like Russia simply because, baring drastic reform the level of government incompetence and corruption makes it so weak. Plus being an autocratic state it would have little or no 'give' to offer moderate reformers a chance of achieving their aims peacefully by argument rather than revolution. It should be noted that the only countries that have achieved an autocratic communist state, by their own efforts were imperial Russia, war-torn China and Cuba. Possibly by some measures Venezuela but the fact open resistance is still not only possible but not quickly crushed means it doesn't really qualify as a full scale communist state. Other than that I think every other national state with an openly communist government has had it impose on them by force.
As such Russia or possibly the Austrian empire would seem to be the best candidates in Europe anyway.
...Well, damn. I'd ask how to prevent a socialist revolution from overtaking the established order early, but you seem to have explained how that's an unlikely prospect. What about the US or UK around this time, will their unhinged hyper-capitalism cause a left-wing backlash that's exacerbated by knowledge of 20th Century communist powers?
Its a possibility but politically their more liberal so there is at least some hope of peaceful change and as the franchise gradually extends it makes it more and more difficult to ignore the bulk of the population and their needs. Although as the resurgence of such ideas since 79/80 and their relative success - in gaining and maintaining power - shows even then its not a sure thing. So there is the prospect of problems in those societies although I suspect its more likely to be extreme groups acting more as terrorists rather than serious attempts to gain power by force.
I think you could see hard line communism delayed and a stronger reaction to it when it occurs but until its been tried and shown how bad it is for the population as a whole its definitely a possibility.
The one uncertainty might be the reaction of neighbouring powers to a hard line left wing coup. OTL relatively small but well organised forces might have crushed Lenin's forces in 1918-20 say, allied to local conservative elements, although this might have prompted continued unrest and opposition to whatever new regime is establish as it could be painted as a foreign puppet. However it was impractical because the other great powers were still engaged in the Great War and then when it was finished trying to sort out a stable peace settlement and too exhausted socially to support a prolonged intervention to suppress Lenin and his gang. In fact there was concern in Britain and possibly other countries, of unrest in favour of the Bolsheviks. If there hadn't been several years of brutal war draining the continent then the chance of some agreement by other powers is probably more likely, similar say to the intervention to crush the Boxer rebellion in China a few years before. However without such a war how quickly might Russia say actually be weakened enough to fall to left wing - as opposed to right wing - extremism?
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Post by Panzerlied on Jun 27, 2019 22:56:32 GMT
What about Japan?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 28, 2019 7:25:01 GMT
Well OTL Japan was greatly influenced by the threat from Russia, which increased in character when the latter became communist. If Russia or no other nearby country becomes communist its not likely to have any real influence on Japan either way I suspect. In ~1900 Japan was officially a liberal democracy but still have a substantial feudal character in many ways, especially with the divine status of the emperor. As such, unless things get really really bad then I think your unlikely to see communist unrest. It probably also helped that Japan's success in industrialising and becoming a modern great power - the 1st Asian nation to do so - gave the country and its population a lot of prestige and self-confidence.
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