The Second Battle of Britain - a Soviet Sealion

[stevep]

   Blue touch paper lit. Stand well back for resultant explosion.

[James G]

Jul 22, 2019 21:39:16 GMT stevep said:

   Blue touch paper lit. Stand well back for resultant explosion.

Iraq got away with hitting the USS Stark in very similar circumstances OTL but the result here will be different.

[James G]

14 – An appropriate response


Initial Iraqi reaction to the missile attack that their aircraft undertook against the US Navy was that it wasn’t them. It couldn’t have been them. Fingers were pointed elsewhere. It was probably the Kuwaitis, maybe the Iranians had done this. Or, possibly, there was a conspiracy afoot and it was the Saudis, even the British, who’d done this to frame Iraq and poison relations between Baghdad & Washington. This was baloney. Rashid had his officials lie when he knew the truth of the matter. The Americans knew too.

There were several different manners in which the United States knew who was responsible. First of all, there was the wealth of signals intercepts. The attack and post-attack reactions between IQAF aircraft and ground stations had been listened-in upon. Communications back to Baghdad had been overheard too. This alone assured the Americans that the Iraqis had done this though it did tell them that it was a mistake too… or someone was being very clever and making out it was an accident and instead it was deliberate. Secondly, to add to this, there were the radar images gained from several sources. Flying discreetly from a desert airbase in the northwest of Saudi Arabia, at Tabuk which was close to Egypt & Israel, the US Air Force was operating a flight of their E-3 Sentry radar aircraft. These had been flying in Saudi skies for many years and hadn’t left when the Iran-Iraq War had ended: during that conflict, they had overseen Saudi participation in a June 1984 shootdown of Iranian fighters. Those with the rotating detachment at Tabuk had monitored the Iraqi Su-24s throughout their flight, those which had now in April ’87 hit the USS Galley. The US Navy hadn’t been directly co-operating with the US Air Force in each other’s Gulf operations – it was a long-standing matter and something which caused an explosion of anger and yet another inter-service fight at the Pentagon – but they too had a lot of radar data. Their ships couldn’t see as far as the E-3 did. Still, there was enough information, especially when analysed after the fact. The pair of Iraqi Fencers had been spotted on several shipborne radar screens. There was confusion at the time whether they were Soviet-crewed (there was information that the Soviet Air Force had Su-24s temporarily based in Iraq) or in service with the IQAF and their missile launch, undertaken at low level, wasn’t seen aboard the soon-to-be-struck Galley. There were several US Navy ships in the Gulf and two of them, including the cruiser USS Yorktown, had confirmation of the launch at the time and stored in their computer databanks.

Rashid could say what it wanted but Reagan was quickly assured of their guilt in the taking of American lives at sea.

It was likely the case too that even if Iraq’s leader had at once admitted guilt, informed the United States that they had been responsible, and explained the foolishness that saw this happen, the Americans wouldn’t have been satisfied. Relations between the two countries were already in the toilet and nothing could be done to improve them. Speculation here was one for historians in the future to make: it mattered naught in the immediate aftermath.


Reagan met with his advisers and senior officials. Figures such as Bush, Shultz, Weinberger, Carlucci, Webster and Admiral Crowe from the administration were consulted. The president also had audiences with members of both houses of congress, from each party too. Before the attack on the Galley, there had been much criticism directed at the White House towards the assertion that ‘nothing was being done’ in the Gulf. Untrue that might have been, especially when the US Navy moved in to protect tanker traffic, but those remarks were made repeatedly. Iraq was seen to have fallen into the Soviet camp with the United States doing nothing about it.

While aware that the attack was most likely an accident – though there was the possibility that that was an elaborate charade; CIA Director Webster wouldn’t absolutely rule that out – a response was still needed. Iraq’s actions in the Gulf for more than a year now where it menaced its neighbours & issued threats to anyone else, their ultimate responsibility for the loss of American lives and their post-attack denials played into this. From several sources, the president had been ‘reminded’ that Gaddafi had done a lot less and the response (naval attacks in the Gulf of Sirte last March and then Operation El Dorado Canyon the next month) against Libya had been the use of overwhelming force. Iraq couldn’t get off lightly.

Addressing the nation on television the night after the attack in the Gulf, Reagan informed the American people that Iraq was responsible for the loss of life among US Navy sailors. Evidence was presented yet there was care used not to give away secrets in this. The president then moved on to tell the country (plus the watching world) what he wanted to see to be done now. Official diplomatic contact had already been made with Iraq on this but it was made public too. President Rashid must publicly accept responsibility and compensation must be paid. It must also cease hostile, illegal air & naval activity in Kuwaiti airspace & waters. Reagan gave no deadline for when this had to be done, but his use of the word ‘soon’ was something that his spokesman was questioned about afterwards. Again, there was no deadline set. Some unease was expressed among people inside & outside the administration as it was said to give Iraq wiggle room but the president didn’t believe that an exact date was needed on this. It would box the White House in if issued.

Finishing his statement, Reagan said something else too which reporters would also bring many questions to gain a clarification on. He stated that if Iraq didn’t do this, if it refused to admit guilt & stop what they were doing, there would be an ‘appropriate response’ made.


Plans were being made at the Pentagon for military action to take place in the Gulf, that appropriate response which the president had spoken of.

A naval-air action was being worked up with the US Navy using two carriers – one in the Arabian Sea and the other which had recently entered the Red Sea via Suez – striking against Iraqi military assets soonest. They had to get everything ready for that including gaining clear intelligence on where Soviet forces were operating so they weren’t accidently struck. In the meantime, ahead of that military strike, which Reagan had given authorisation to get ready for though not signed off on completely, a complete sea change in rules of engagement were sent to CENTCOM-assigned components in the Middle East. There would be no more hesitation shown unless the concern that aircraft/ships might be Soviet-operated was real and the US Air Force was told to work with the US Navy in an efficient manner on this. Secretary of Defence Carlucci issued those instructions at the same time as he personally lobbied Reagan to give the word for that planned deliberate military strike to take place. Like Rashid had done, Carlucci was acting on impulse here.

American forces were on course to engage the Iraqis ahead of any set-piece, careful strike due to this. Another accident was certain the moment CENTCOM received those instructions from Carlucci.

[lordbyron]

Both sides are bumbling into a conflict they can't get out of easily, IMO...

[James G]

Jul 24, 2019 3:03:47 GMT lordbyron said:

Both sides are bumbling into a conflict they can't get out of easily, IMO...

That's the route i am taking. There will be more accidents in tonight's update, though this will be perceived as deliberate.

[James G]

15 – Another accident


Central Command (CENTCOM) was one of several ‘unified combatant commands’ operated by the United States Armed Force. Areas of the globe were broken up into select regions by the Pentagon where there was an American interest – pretty much everywhere to be honest – and a multi-service command established for each. Several of these, European Command & Pacific Command especially, had elements of American military power based within them on a permanent basis. Others, CENTCOM and Southern Command (covering Latin America) for example, had none of those: there were no garrisons of troops or airbases full of combat aircraft within the countries & territories of these commands. Instead, elements of US Armed Forces based at home in the mainland United States were assigned roles to join CENTCOM and others in times of crisis and war. There were elements of the US Air Force, the US Navy and the US Marines – not the US Army – currently in the Middle East. They were assigned to CENTCOM away other global commands on a temporary basis. In making that transfer, CENTCOM had full control over them while they were there in South-West Asia. However, the headquarters itself for CENTCOM remained elsewhere in the world, far away in Florida at an airbase near to Tampa. General Crist, a veteran US Marine officer, had remained at MacDill AFB as the crisis grew in the Middle East. There had been flying visits made back and forth yet it was at MacDill where had commanded CENTCOM from as Iraq menaced the region.

After the missile attack against the USS Galley, Crist initially set about heading out to a forward post in Bahrain though he was called up to Washington to brief Carlucci and also Admiral Crowe. The secretary of defence and the chairman of the joint chiefs kept him busy and unable to head out to the Gulf. Eventually, Crist was freed from the endless series of talks and he set about making an urgent trip to the Middle East… and stay there for the time being too. In Bahrain, the communications station there would be upgraded to a forward headquarters. Equipment and personnel flew out to that small country ahead of Crist. A heck of a lot of work would still need to take place back at MacDill to keep CENTCOM functioning but the commander and his key staff would be ‘on the ground’ in the desert.

Crist himself was travelling to Bahrain when the latest round of military engagements took place. Two days after the attack on the Galley which took American lives, CENTCOM-assigned forces hit back.


This was not part of what was being deemed ‘Operation High Water’. Late on the 29th of April, two separate shooting incidents took place. Each time, the Americans opened fire in what their new rules of engagement allowed them to do in self-defence. Pre-emptive self-defence it was though: no actual attack had been made each time but one was strongly considered to be on the way. Authorisation from on-high had come to do this yet Crist wasn’t directly involved each time. It would be done by those under his command though.

The first incident was the shooting down of a pair of Iraqi fighter-bombers. There was surprise that Rashid would send the IQAF back out again, over Kuwaiti Waters following all that Reagan had said in public and all of the back-channel diplomacy, but there were several jets flying today which weren’t expected to be. The US Navy quickly confirmed that these weren’t Kuwaiti-operated. Kuwait too flew the French-built Mirage F-1 but these were Iraqi. Two of them closed in upon the US Navy’s destroyer USS Conyngham, an old vessel with limited anti-air & anti-missile capacity. The French had recently withdrawn cooperation with Iraq over aiding the IQAF’s use of such aircraft, especially in operations with the fearsome Exocet anti-ship missile, but it was feared that the Mirages could be carrying them ready to once more kill American sailors. From the Conyngham, urgent warnings were sent to the Mirages. Back off, they were told, or else. The Iraqi jets dropped down low and looked set to launch an Exocet attack. The Americans opened fire ahead of that. It wasn’t the destroyer that hit them but instead a pair of F-14 Tomcat interceptors. These were flying some distance away from the USS Constellation, the US Navy carrier based out in the Arabian Sea, and supported by airborne tankers making use of Saudi Arabia as well as the E-3 airborne radar aircraft operated by the US Air Force too in a successful combined operation. Missiles from the Tomcats came from above and made contact with the Mirages. One blew up straight away, killing its pilot, while the other was badly hit. The pilot of this one made an effort to try to get home but that was going to be impossible. He ejected instead, low over the Gulf. A Kuwaiti missile boat picked him out of the water and saved his life.

Neither Mirage had been carrying Exocets and neither was in any way about to attack the US Navy.

Informed of the destruction of those Iraqi Mirages while flying – after the fact –, Crist was landing in Bahrain when the second engagement was made. An hour after the Mirages, out into the northern Gulf came a larger, lone aircraft. It was at once identified as a Tupolev-22 Blinder missile-bomber in Iraqi service. The identification was made by the US Air Force who trailed it from an IQAF airbase and who had CIA-supplied intelligence that while the Soviets had sort-of similar aircraft temporarily based in Iraq – those being the larger Tu-22M Backfire – they had no Blinders of their own there. It didn’t enter Kuwaiti waters but instead went out over international waters. The course took it straight towards a pair of American warships: the cruiser USS Yorktown and the destroyer USS Scott. Yorktown was fitted with the AEGIS air defence system, something designed to defeat possible Soviet missile attacks over the ocean during open warfare where bombers would launch dozens upon dozens of missiles. This lone Iraqi bomber, which could only carry one missile, a big one though, was detected even without US Air Force help yet the information was shared between the two services.

It was an Iraqi Blinder heading right towards two more US Navy ships. After warnings were sent, and ignored seemingly with a foolish arrogance, the Yorktown launched her own missiles ahead of what was sure to be an Iraqi strike. The aircraft was hit several times with mid-air explosions seen. Bits of the aircraft fell towards the water below with no escape made by the three-man crew.

Aboard the cruiser which had made the kill-shot and the destroyer nearby, radio intercepts had been made coming from the Blinder in the last seconds ahead of its destruction. The outgoing messages had been the first made by those aboard and they were incomplete too. They weren’t spoken in Arabic. Instead, the radio calls were broadcast in Russian.

The Americans had just downed a Soviet military aircraft. It was another accident, a further case of mistaken identity made by military forces from several countries close to each other in an undeclared warzone, but would that innocence of intent matter in the long run?

[James G]

What reaction do readers think will occur after this?

[stevep]

Jul 24, 2019 22:05:51 GMT James G said:

What reaction do readers think will occur after this?

  I suspect that since a Soviet a/c has been destroyed, regardless of the fact it sounds like this many have been caused by rashness on the crews part - heading straight for the US ships and ignoring warnings - they, or at least the military, will want to respond in some way.  If this happens with an attack on a US target then I can see things escalating rapidly.

  One possibility, since the USN was convinced that the a/c was Iraqi was that they only tried warning it in Arabic and that due to lack of familiarity with the language or the assumption the USN was warning some other, Iraqi a/c the Soviet crew didn't realise until the last moment it was them being warned off and threatened with attack.  The Soviets might make use of such an argument even if it wasn't the case as it throws some responsibility back on the US forces.  Muddying the waters so to speak.

  Rashid is going to be angry about the downing of a couple of his a/c which puts him in a very difficult position.  Iraqi feeling is likely to demand something is done but, unless he gets support from the USSR after the 2nd attack he can't realistically do anything himself against the US and its allies.  Although that may be a moot point as it sounds like the US is going to tale further actions anyway.  At which point I can see Rashid either being forced to respond or possibly being removed.

[James G]

Jul 24, 2019 22:54:07 GMT stevep said:

Jul 24, 2019 22:05:51 GMT James G said:

What reaction do readers think will occur after this?

  I suspect that since a Soviet a/c has been destroyed, regardless of the fact it sounds like this many have been caused by rashness on the crews part - heading straight for the US ships and ignoring warnings - they, or at least the military, will want to respond in some way.  If this happens with an attack on a US target then I can see things escalating rapidly.

  One possibility, since the USN was convinced that the a/c was Iraqi was that they only tried warning it in Arabic and that due to lack of familiarity with the language or the assumption the USN was warning some other, Iraqi a/c the Soviet crew didn't realise until the last moment it was them being warned off and threatened with attack.  The Soviets might make use of such an argument even if it wasn't the case as it throws some responsibility back on the US forces.  Muddying the waters so to speak.

  Rashid is going to be angry about the downing of a couple of his a/c which puts him in a very difficult position.  Iraqi feeling is likely to demand something is done but, unless he gets support from the USSR after the 2nd attack he can't realistically do anything himself against the US and its allies.  Although that may be a moot point as it sounds like the US is going to tale further actions anyway.  At which point I can see Rashid either being forced to respond or possibly being removed.

I'm not ready to escalate yet but that will be a sign of things to come.
I was thinking something similar to what happened with Iran Air Flight 665 in 1988. That aircraft was called many times by a US Navy cruiser but didn't respond: they didn't consider it was they being addressed. So here, the Soviets, who've been doing this to the Americans with other aircraft, think 'that is not us' and plow onwards until the last minute they realise but that is too late.
You're right: Iraq can do nothing. Nothing yet anyway as the Soviets aren't willing to go to war over his actions.

[James G]

16 – The Hotline


The last thing that the Soviet leadership wanted was a military conflict in the Middle East that they would be involved in. Gorbachev and his top people, even those with whom his preeminent position wasn’t something they were comfortable with, had no desire for war. Not due to the actions of Iraq especially! In Washington, certain influential Americans were still openly predicting that Moscow-Baghdad-Tehran axis was real and they were spreading tales of doom on that note. But this wasn’t the thinking among the leadership of the world’s largest country. They sought no full alliance with either nor wanted war. Fighting the Afghan guerrillas was more than enough. Taking on the United States and the wider West because Rashid in Baghdad had economic disputes with his Arab neighbours? Hell, no. Yes, there were elements of the Soviet leadership out to cause a bit of trouble to look for openings, selective Politburo members who had grand designs for the spread of Moscow’s influence throughout the region, but that was a long-term goal to be brought about without war. Moreover, the collective leadership wasn’t fully involved in such complicated schemes.

The Americans had shot down a Soviet military aircraft killing the aircrew aboard. Two of them were Soviet Naval Aviation officers while the third was an East German Air Force participant involved in a training mission alongside his fraternal comrades. This was an unprovoked attack conducted by the US Navy over international waters. These facts made the situation something that couldn’t be ignored regardless of the wider situation when it came to relations with the Americans. There had to be response.

The response was made over the Moscow-Washington Hotline. In a pre-drafted statement, whose contents were agreed by the Politburo beforehand, was sent to the Americans. The allegation was put that this attack was illegal and unwarranted. An explanation was called for and also an apology demanded.

There were several methods of communication which could have been used to contact the Americans. The foreign minister could have telephoned his counterpart in Washington or made use of the ambassador there. The US Ambassador in Moscow could have been called into see the foreign minister, even Gorbachev himself. Furthermore, a direct call could have been made from Gorbachev to Reagan. The Hotline was used though. This was done on purpose and at the urging of several members of the Politburo who believed that using other means wouldn’t convey the seriousness the Hotline would. Gorbachev, in his position as general secretary for just over two years now though not thoroughly secure there still, he been ‘persuaded’ by them to see this done.

A hotline between the capitals of the world’s two superpowers was there for a reason. It was meant to allow for calm and lengthy communication instead of rash words being spoken over a telephone link where interruptions & misunderstandings were likely to occur. The Hotline worked as advertised following the shooting down of that Blinder bomber over the Persian Gulf. The Americans made a reply in good time and addressed the point that the Soviets made. An explanation was given and it was stated that an accident appeared to have occurred. There was sorrow expressed for the loss of life. A question was asked: how can we work together to stop a repeat of this?

Such a response took the wind out of the sails of the hardliners with Gorbachev.

They had expected a different response, for the Americans to be aggressive and denying everything. They weren’t aware though how fast the US Government understood what their deployed naval forces had done accidently and how Bush & Shultz (Reagan’s vice president & secretary of state respectively) had taken the lead in answering the Hotline message. It was signed off with Reagan’s approval and in his name – mention made too of the recent progress in relations made between the two leaders for example meeting in Iceland late last year – with the tone of friendliness throughout. Outright admittance of guilt wasn’t there but the communication back conveyed almost that. In Washington, the president’s top two key people on this had feared the reaction from some of the hardliners still in positions of power around Gorbachev.

There would be further messages exchanged afterwards but the tense situation was broken quickly. Fears of a spiralling situation dissipated. Around Gorbachev, someone whom the Americans might have called the ‘chief troublemaker’ in this matter, KGB Chairman Chebrikov, was left helpless in response. His talk of ‘tackling Cowboy Imperialism head-on’ looked foolish fast. As to the general secretary himself, he would seek to gain something from all of this. That wasn’t to be anything from the United States but rather from within the Politburo. He had supporters as well as doubters. One of the former moved discussions to talk of walking away from this Iraq entanglement that the Soviet Union had recently gotten itself involved in. Gorbachev voiced the opinion that he too believed that Rashid was only trouble, possibly more than someone like Gaddafi was.

How much would we lose, he asked the Politburo, if we walked away?


In the following days and weeks, the aftereffects of the aircraft shootdown over the Gulf, that being the two incidents on April 29th, were many. Rashid eased back as he came under Soviet pressure. He still kept his army in the south of Iraq but didn’t close it up against the Kuwaiti border. His ships didn’t stray far from home nor did his aircraft go into Kuwaiti skies again. There was no progress with any talks between Baghdad and the GCC countries; a hostile relationship still remained despite many wanting to see it repaired. Iraq looked cowed to the outside world, pushed into inaction by American military force. Operation High Water was first delayed then postponed. It wasn’t cancelled though every day which passed without the planned big attack not happening lessened the chances of it occurring.

American warships stayed in the region. CENTCOM had better improved direct control of their operation as, once more, rules of engagement were updated. Soviet aircraft didn’t come out from Iraq over the Gulf anymore. There was unmolested tanker traffic in the waters off Kuwait. Peace seemed present, for the first time in a long time.

The frontpage headline on an edition of the American newspaper The Washington Post a week after the shooting incidents ran ‘Crisis In The Gulf Over’. That was far from the case. The underlying issues still remained, as strong as they were before the eruption of violence. Something was soon bound to happen there again, drawing in many countries from near and far, due to the unresolved situation.

However, before then, a troubled young West German national would take a flight elsewhere in the world and thus change everything.

[stevep]

   Now why do I think an unscheduled flight to Red Square is on?  Desperately trying to remember the young man's name but can't.  OTL that embarrassed the Soviets as he totally bypassed all their defenses but in this case it could have more dramatic effects.

[lordroel]

Jul 25, 2019 19:40:05 GMT stevep said:

   Now why do I think an unscheduled flight to Red Square is on?  Desperately trying to remember the young man's name but can't.  OTL that embarrassed the Soviets as he totally bypassed all their defenses but in this case it could have more dramatic effects.

You mean Mathias Rust's.

[stevep]

Jul 25, 2019 19:45:03 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 25, 2019 19:40:05 GMT stevep said:

   Now why do I think an unscheduled flight to Red Square is on?  Desperately trying to remember the young man's name but can't.  OTL that embarrassed the Soviets as he totally bypassed all their defenses but in this case it could have more dramatic effects.

You mean Mathias Rust's.

  That's the man.  The memory is definitely getting worse. 

[James G]

Heer Rust will have his OTL luck: the amazing series of events that went his way, oh so conveniently, will occur as they did.
The aftereffects will be different though.

[James G]

17 – Luck


Mathias Rust, an eighteen-year-old West German, chose May 1987 to act to influence world affairs and secure peace. He had a little experience of flying and this was his method of doing so. Renting a small aircraft and fitting it with internal fuel tanks, he flew from his native country first to the Faroe Islands and then onwards to Iceland. In that island nation, Rust visited the venue where Gorbachev and Reagan had met in person the year before. Norway was his next destination before afterwards he reached Helsinki in Finland. His journeys across Northern Europe had taken up some time but Rust wasn’t finished yet. He filed a flight plan in Helsinki to take him onwards to Stockholm. He’d never make it to Sweden though.

Soon after taking off from Finland, Rust switched of the communications equipment in his little aircraft. Finnish civilian aviation authorities lost radar contact with him and quickly made an effort to locate the aircraft as they feared the worst. A rescue effort was mounted, looking for Rust in case he had crashed into the Gulf of Finland. There was fast the signs that that might be the case: an oil patch was located on the surface of the water. Was this from his aircraft’s fuel tank? It appeared he had crashed. Rust was still flying though. Flying onwards, he’d entered Soviet airspace over the Estonian SSR and then gone east, deeper into the Soviet Union. Air defence radars picked up his aircraft and began tracking it. Radio calls went unanswered so missile batteries were alerted and interceptors scrambled. This was the Soviet air defence system which had a lot of experience at shooting down intruders: just ask those hundreds of dead passengers aboard KAL 007 four years beforehand. Confusion reigned in the skies due to Rust’s appearance. There was a lot going on with exercises were pilots considered to be unruly by ground control – they had been known to deviate from flight paths and switch off their identification beacons – and also an aerial search being made for the wreckage of a military aircraft which had gone down the day before. Rust’s aircraft was targeted for destruction but permission wasn’t granted less he be ‘friendly’ instead of an intruder. Soon, Rust’s aircraft disappeared from radar screens once more. Had he crashed or maybe he had landed somewhere? Several hours passed before the white painted propeller-driven Cessna showed up near Moscow. Once more, despite not answering radio calls and being deemed as an unknown, now on its way to the nation’s capital too, permission was refused from on high to engage it.

Rust circled low in the evening sky over Moscow. There was still daylight and those around the very heart of the city, in Red Square outside of the Kremlin, watched his aircraft do this. A British tourist filmed Rust as he seemingly buzzed the people in the square. Was he trying to give them a show or was he attempting to get them to get out of the way? Rust came into land. On any other day, this would have been a fatal mistake for any pilot. There were overheard cables for the city’s trolleybuses strung above the streets. Rust had absolutely amazing luck here. Those cables had all been removed for maintenance, just for one day only. There was a bridge which connected to Red Square and on that Rust brought his aircraft down upon. The Cessna soon came to a halt and Rust emerged on the edge of Red Square. Crowds gathered and there came policemen too. He was from Germany – East Germany, they asked: no West Germany – and was here to help world peace. Taken into official custody, soon enough Rust was with the KGB. There were many, many questions to be asked by low- & mid-ranking personnel and then later by others elsewhere about all of this. It had been remarkably easy for him to do this when everything would have suggested that he should have failed when faced with all of the obstacles in his way. But he had all of that luck and made it to his destination regardless.

Over at the Lubyanka building, the infamous headquarters of the KGB, Chebrikov was approached by one of his closest aides with news coming direct from over in Red Square.

“The boy has landed successfully”.

The KGB Chairman raised an uncharacteristic smile before replying: “And, so it begins.”