What if: Afrika 1944

[lordroel]

Its 1944, Spain has aligned with the Axis, the Canary Islands host German air and naval bases while Gibraltar is under siege and the Battle for Libya is still going strong between the German-Italians versus the Allies.

So what next, will we see a Allied landing in Morocco (to relieve the pressure on Gibraltar), the US Marines landing on the Canary Islands and a massive build up by the Allies in Libya to break the back of the Africa Corps and drive true to Axis controlled Morocco.

[James G]

If Gibraltar can hold out, that would be something special indeed. In that scenario, the best British move would be to land in Spanish Morocco, at Tangiers especially (which was an international city that the Spanish occupied throughout WW2), and use it for air and naval establishments to attack Spain from there.

[lordroel]

Jul 27, 2019 10:07:49 GMT James G said:

If Gibraltar can hold out, that would be something special indeed. In that scenario, the best British move would be to land in Spanish Morocco, at Tangiers especially (which was an international city that the Spanish occupied throughout WW2), and use it for air and naval establishments to attack Spain from there.

I was thinking the same, but first i would think that the Allies would land on the Canary Islands and use it as a staging base for landings in Morocco.

[James G]

Jul 27, 2019 10:10:07 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 27, 2019 10:07:49 GMT James G said:

If Gibraltar can hold out, that would be something special indeed. In that scenario, the best British move would be to land in Spanish Morocco, at Tangiers especially (which was an international city that the Spanish occupied throughout WW2), and use it for air and naval establishments to attack Spain from there.

I was thinking the same, but first i would think that the Allies would land on the Canary Islands and use it as a staging base for landings in Morocco.

I'm not sure they would need to. They didn't for Op Torch though that wasn't an opposed landing.
What was there in the Canaries at the time in terms of airheads and useful ports?

[lordroel]

Jul 27, 2019 10:12:24 GMT James G said:

Jul 27, 2019 10:10:07 GMT lordroel said:

I was thinking the same, but first i would think that the Allies would land on the Canary Islands and use it as a staging base for landings in Morocco.

I'm not sure they would need to. They didn't for Op Torch though that wasn't an opposed landing.
What was there in the Canaries at the time in terms of airheads and useful ports?

Here is this: Did Hitler plan a coup in the Canary Islands during World War II?

From the article comes this quote about what i assume are Spanish defending the island:

The report also reveals the Allies’ detailed knowledge of the defenses of the Canary Islands: around 10,000 soldiers, with support from 52 planes stationed at Gran Canaria Airport (24 JU 52 bombers and 28 Fiat CR 32 fighters), along with 23 other bombers available at the airport of Cape Juby, in Western Sahara on the African mainland (12 Heinkel 111s, five JU 52s, and six Savoia S 81s).

And we also have Operation Pilgrim – the British plan to snatch the Canary Islands

[Deleted]

Jul 27, 2019 9:13:37 GMT lordroel said:

Its 1944, Spain has aligned with the Axis, the Canary Islands host German air and naval bases while Gibraltar is under siege

So, what happened to Operation TORCH, and the surrender of Vichy forces in North Africa?

Jul 27, 2019 9:13:37 GMT lordroel said:

and the Battle for Libya is still going strong between the German-Italians versus the Allies.

Considering most of the Regia Marina and the Italian merchant navy will be at the bottom of the Med (or confined to port) I don't see how.

[lordroel]

Aug 1, 2019 21:47:33 GMT @vonhitchofen said:

So, what happened to Operation TORCH, and the surrender of Vichy forces in North Africa?

Has most likely not happen yet, Vichy France still exist.

[stevep]

Jul 27, 2019 9:13:37 GMT lordroel said:

Its 1944, Spain has aligned with the Axis, the Canary Islands host German air and naval bases while Gibraltar is under siege and the Battle for Libya is still going strong between the German-Italians versus the Allies.

So what next, will we see a Allied landing in Morocco (to relieve the pressure on Gibraltar), the US Marines landing on the Canary Islands and a massive build up by the Allies in Libya to break the back of the Africa Corps and drive true to Axis controlled Morocco.

  I think the chief question is what happened when Britain tried to seize the Canaries after Franco joined the Axis.  If this failed and the Axis still hold and supply it in 44 then I can't see Gibraltar still holding out and losses in the Atlantic would have been even higher than OTL.  In that case it might well be 44 before the western powers can land in N Africa and the Canaries again and everything else has been put back.  Fighting might well still be going on in Libya as after 2nd El Alemein advances by Monty's forces would stretch their supply lines and the Germans can reinforce through Tunisia probably.  Not sure whether Malta could survive in this scenario either as with the British forced from Gib, possibly with heavy naval losses its going to be difficult solely supplying it from Alexandria. 

  The other question in this scenario is what's happening in the east?  Is the Red Army still storming through western Russia and destroying most of the German army or are the Germans holding on markedly better?  Suspect its unlikely that the Nazis are winning but they could have done somewhat better given the greater problems for the western powers.

[lordroel]

Dec 25, 2019 18:31:37 GMT stevep said:

Jul 27, 2019 9:13:37 GMT lordroel said:

Its 1944, Spain has aligned with the Axis, the Canary Islands host German air and naval bases while Gibraltar is under siege and the Battle for Libya is still going strong between the German-Italians versus the Allies.

So what next, will we see a Allied landing in Morocco (to relieve the pressure on Gibraltar), the US Marines landing on the Canary Islands and a massive build up by the Allies in Libya to break the back of the Africa Corps and drive true to Axis controlled Morocco.

  I think the chief question is what happened when Britain tried to seize the Canaries after Franco joined the Axis.  If this failed and the Axis still hold and supply it in 44 then I can't see Gibraltar still holding out and losses in the Atlantic would have been even higher than OTL.  In that case it might well be 44 before the western powers can land in N Africa and the Canaries again and everything else has been put back.  Fighting might well still be going on in Libya as after 2nd El Alemein advances by Monty's forces would stretch their supply lines and the Germans can reinforce through Tunisia probably.  Not sure whether Malta could survive in this scenario either as with the British forced from Gib, possibly with heavy naval losses its going to be difficult solely supplying it from Alexandria. 

  The other question in this scenario is what's happening in the east?  Is the Red Army still storming through western Russia and destroying most of the German army or are the Germans holding on markedly better?  Suspect its unlikely that the Nazis are winning but they could have done somewhat better given the greater problems for the western powers.

So Gibraltar will most likely already have fallen and most likely will not be a major target to liberate for a while.

[stevep]

Dec 25, 2019 18:45:41 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 25, 2019 18:31:37 GMT stevep said:

  I think the chief question is what happened when Britain tried to seize the Canaries after Franco joined the Axis.  If this failed and the Axis still hold and supply it in 44 then I can't see Gibraltar still holding out and losses in the Atlantic would have been even higher than OTL.  In that case it might well be 44 before the western powers can land in N Africa and the Canaries again and everything else has been put back.  Fighting might well still be going on in Libya as after 2nd El Alemein advances by Monty's forces would stretch their supply lines and the Germans can reinforce through Tunisia probably.  Not sure whether Malta could survive in this scenario either as with the British forced from Gib, possibly with heavy naval losses its going to be difficult solely supplying it from Alexandria. 

  The other question in this scenario is what's happening in the east?  Is the Red Army still storming through western Russia and destroying most of the German army or are the Germans holding on markedly better?  Suspect its unlikely that the Nazis are winning but they could have done somewhat better given the greater problems for the western powers.

So Gibraltar will most likely already have fallen and most likely will not be a major target to liberate for a while.

  Presuming the Spanish entry into the war is sometime in 1940 or early 41 at the latest - as after that Spain joining the Axis grows increasingly unlikely - then I can't see Gibraltar surviving.  It would be a tough nut to crack but it could be simply starved out and attempts to resupply it could be very, very costly for a RN that couldn't afford the losses.

  Liberating it probably wouldn't be an urgent priority unless after landings in French N Africa to remove the Axis from Africa the allies follow up by invading Spain.  Either because in the circumstances its seen as a more practical alternative than northern France or because they want to regain access to the Med - or a combination of the two possibly.

[lordroel]

Well as this is a What if about the Afrika Korps still fighting among other things, one thing i was wondering, would the Germans send a Tiger II to Africa, but then i thought, would it be overkill, a Tiger I can engage and destroy any tank the American and British can send them.

[stevep]

Dec 25, 2019 19:03:45 GMT lordroel said:

Well as this is a What if about the Afrika Korps still fighting among other things, one thing i was wondering, would the Germans send a Tiger II to Africa, but then i thought, would it be overkill, a Tiger I can engage and destroy any tank the American and British can send them.

  They can but they have a big logistics burden.  Renown for being unreliable and heavy on fuel demands.  As such their probably less useful in fairly open desert regions.  Also they will still be exposed to allied air power, attack them both directly and via their supply/logistics chain.  Plus if the allies can keep subs and some air/naval units operating against supply lines to Africa across the Med then all units but especially logistics heavy ones like Tigers are going to be vulnerable.

  Also its probably unlikely in that if the allies are basically stalled until 1944 then the Germans in general and Hitler in particular are going to want the heavy tanks where their most needed, i.e. on the eastern front.

[lordroel]

Dec 25, 2019 21:50:32 GMT stevep said:

Dec 25, 2019 19:03:45 GMT lordroel said:

Well as this is a What if about the Afrika Korps still fighting among other things, one thing i was wondering, would the Germans send a Tiger II to Africa, but then i thought, would it be overkill, a Tiger I can engage and destroy any tank the American and British can send them.

  They can but they have a big logistics burden.  Renown for being unreliable and heavy on fuel demands.  As such their probably less useful in fairly open desert regions.  Also they will still be exposed to allied air power, attack them both directly and via their supply/logistics chain.  Plus if the allies can keep subs and some air/naval units operating against supply lines to Africa across the Med then all units but especially logistics heavy ones like Tigers are going to be vulnerable.

  Also its probably unlikely in that if the allies are basically stalled until 1944 then the Germans in general and Hitler in particular are going to want the heavy tanks where their most needed, i.e. on the eastern front.

So Tiger I and mabey Panthers verus Sherman Fireflys and maybe early versions of the M26 Pershing,

[stevep]

Dec 25, 2019 21:57:47 GMT lordroel said:

Dec 25, 2019 21:50:32 GMT stevep said:

  They can but they have a big logistics burden.  Renown for being unreliable and heavy on fuel demands.  As such their probably less useful in fairly open desert regions.  Also they will still be exposed to allied air power, attack them both directly and via their supply/logistics chain.  Plus if the allies can keep subs and some air/naval units operating against supply lines to Africa across the Med then all units but especially logistics heavy ones like Tigers are going to be vulnerable.

  Also its probably unlikely in that if the allies are basically stalled until 1944 then the Germans in general and Hitler in particular are going to want the heavy tanks where their most needed, i.e. on the eastern front.

So Tiger I and mabey Panthers verus Sherman Fireflys and maybe early versions of the M26 Pershing,

  Possibly although in the more mobile terrain of the desert such big and slow units are going to be more vulnerable than in European theatres.

[lordroel]

Dec 25, 2019 22:09:56 GMT stevep said:

Dec 25, 2019 21:57:47 GMT lordroel said:

So Tiger I and mabey Panthers verus Sherman Fireflys and maybe early versions of the M26 Pershing,

  Possibly although in the more mobile terrain of the desert such big and slow units are going to be more vulnerable than in European theatres.

That already leaves out the Tiger I who was used in OTL in North Africa.