Post by eurofed on Nov 6, 2019 22:36:13 GMT
The topic of this scenario is the course and outcome of the 1848 Revolutions in a TL where the post-Napoleonic borders of European states are substantially different. Possible PoD for this scenario may vary. Personally I have thought of a few: a) The Polish-Saxon crisis at the Congress of Vienna escalates in a conflict Russia and Prussia on one side and Britain, Austria, and France on the other side, with Napoleon's comeback turning the war into a three-sided conflict that ends with a Russian-Prussian victory. France is punished with an harsh peace, Austria is allowed its own important consolation prizes. b) Napoleon is able to fight longer the Coalition powers in 1813-15, even if he is eventually vanquished, driving the Coalition powers to change the Congress of Vienna settlement substantially c) the July Revolution in France causes a brief revival of the French Revolutionary Wars as Orleanist France starts to support and intervene in various revolutionary uprisings in the Low Countries, Italy, and Poland, drives the formation of another anti-French coalition, and ultimately gets defeated.
Notable differences include:
- Belgium does not exist since the revolution that created it was averted or suppressed. The United Kingdom of the Netherlands still stands and it got Calais, the French Flanders, French Hainaut, and Artois from France. It lost Luxemburg to Germany. In all likelihood, Belgium missed its chance to arise, and all unsettled national issues concerning the political status of Wallonia are going to be folded in the larger cause of French irredentism.
- France suffered a rather harsher peace deal and was pushed back into pre-Louis XIV borders, losing Calais, the French Flanders, French Hainaut, Artois, Lorraine, Alsace, Franche-Comte, eastern Dauphine, eastern Provence, Corsica, and Roussillon to various neighbor states. Depending on the PoD, it may have Henry V, Louis Philippe, his surviving elder son Ferdinand Philippe, or a surviving Napoleon II on the throne. Almost surely, irredentism is going to be a very important and pressing issue for France in the future, both as it concerns future revolutionary events and clashes with the other European states, especially concerning Germany but also Italy, the Low Countries, and Spain. Outcome may vary considerably depending on political, diplomatic, and military variables.
- Germany unified as a functional federation. This might be the effect of Austria and Prussia making a workable power-sharing compromise for a dual leadership of Germany in the face of the threats of French expansionism and revolution, or Prussia dealing a decisive defeat to Austria and its allies with the help of Russia. The borders of the German union include all the lands of the OTL German Confederation plus Prussia proper, Luxemburg, Alsace, Lorraine, Franche-Comte, and most of Switzerland. It lost Trent and the Kustenland to the Habsburg Kingdom of Italy. The internal borders of the German states are significantly different as well. Prussia lost Posen to Russia, kept its other OTL territories, and got Saxony, Thuringia, Franconia, Hesse, and Nassau. Depending on the PoD, it may also own Hanover and Bohemia-Moravia, or those territories may stay in the hands of their OTL rulers. Austria got Old Bavaria and eastern Switzerland. Luxemburg, Saarland, Palatinate, Alsace, and Lorraine merged in the Kingdom of Lorraine with the Wittelsbach on the throne. Franche-Comte merged with western-central Switzerland in the Kingdom of Burgundy with the Wettin on the throne. The German nation has satisfactorily settled its unification issue, but the one of transition to liberalism remains on the table as the potential source of revolutionary instability. The current settlement leaves it with very favourable if perhaps not so sustainable western borders and plenty of indirect influence in Italy and Central Europe, thanks to its ties with the Habsburg monarchy. It also burdens it with a large and unruly French-speaking minority and the fierce enmity of France, as well as binds it to the defence of the Habsburg interests in Italy and Central Europe.
- The Habsburg Empire lost Galicia and Bukovina to Russia, and depending on the PoD it may or may not have lost Bohemia-Moravia to Prussia. It gained Old Bavaria and eastern Switzerland in southern Germany; Parma, Modena, Romagna, Lucca, Tuscany, Marche, and Umbria in northern Italy; Wallachia and central Serbia in the Balkans. After the unification of Germany, the Habsburg reorganized their domains in a few big administrative units: the German lands; the Kingdom of Hungary (including Croatia); and the Kingdom of Italy (including Trent, the Kustenland, and Venetian Dalmatia). Depending on political variables, Wallachia and Serbia might be folded in the Kingdom of Hungary, or (perhaps more likely) form their own separate Kingdoms. The conservative and massive multi-national character of the empire begs for a solution that may seriously vary in character.
- Italy formed a loose confederation broadly similar to the OTL German Confederation. Its member states included Sardinia-Piedment, which got Geneve, Valais, Ticino, eastern Dauphine, eastern Provence, and Corsica; the Habsburg Kingdom of Italy; Papal Latium; and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies. So far, the Italian nation failed to achieve full unification but its politigal fragmentation got a serious reduction on the basis of a prevailing Habsburg hegemony which might evolve in various ways, also depending on the outcome of its relationship with Germany and France.
- Russia had its OTL territories, and also got Posen, Galicia, Bukovina, Moldavia, Dobruja, Western Armenia, and Iranian Azerbaijan. Due to expansion of the Russian Empire, Poland found itself reunified under Russian rule, while Romania got partitioned between the Habsburg and Russian empires. Russia considerably expanded its influence in Eastern Europe, even if the ultimate goals of its southwards expansion dirve remain unfulfilled.
- Greece got independence within its modern borders, except Thrace, and got much closer to fulfil its irredentist ambitions.
- the Schleswig-Holstein question got settled with the partition of the duchies. North Schleswig became an integral part of Denmark, while Southern Schleswig and Holstein joined Germany as a member state.
How do you expect the liberal revolutions to affect Europe in these circumstances?
Notable differences include:
- Belgium does not exist since the revolution that created it was averted or suppressed. The United Kingdom of the Netherlands still stands and it got Calais, the French Flanders, French Hainaut, and Artois from France. It lost Luxemburg to Germany. In all likelihood, Belgium missed its chance to arise, and all unsettled national issues concerning the political status of Wallonia are going to be folded in the larger cause of French irredentism.
- France suffered a rather harsher peace deal and was pushed back into pre-Louis XIV borders, losing Calais, the French Flanders, French Hainaut, Artois, Lorraine, Alsace, Franche-Comte, eastern Dauphine, eastern Provence, Corsica, and Roussillon to various neighbor states. Depending on the PoD, it may have Henry V, Louis Philippe, his surviving elder son Ferdinand Philippe, or a surviving Napoleon II on the throne. Almost surely, irredentism is going to be a very important and pressing issue for France in the future, both as it concerns future revolutionary events and clashes with the other European states, especially concerning Germany but also Italy, the Low Countries, and Spain. Outcome may vary considerably depending on political, diplomatic, and military variables.
- Germany unified as a functional federation. This might be the effect of Austria and Prussia making a workable power-sharing compromise for a dual leadership of Germany in the face of the threats of French expansionism and revolution, or Prussia dealing a decisive defeat to Austria and its allies with the help of Russia. The borders of the German union include all the lands of the OTL German Confederation plus Prussia proper, Luxemburg, Alsace, Lorraine, Franche-Comte, and most of Switzerland. It lost Trent and the Kustenland to the Habsburg Kingdom of Italy. The internal borders of the German states are significantly different as well. Prussia lost Posen to Russia, kept its other OTL territories, and got Saxony, Thuringia, Franconia, Hesse, and Nassau. Depending on the PoD, it may also own Hanover and Bohemia-Moravia, or those territories may stay in the hands of their OTL rulers. Austria got Old Bavaria and eastern Switzerland. Luxemburg, Saarland, Palatinate, Alsace, and Lorraine merged in the Kingdom of Lorraine with the Wittelsbach on the throne. Franche-Comte merged with western-central Switzerland in the Kingdom of Burgundy with the Wettin on the throne. The German nation has satisfactorily settled its unification issue, but the one of transition to liberalism remains on the table as the potential source of revolutionary instability. The current settlement leaves it with very favourable if perhaps not so sustainable western borders and plenty of indirect influence in Italy and Central Europe, thanks to its ties with the Habsburg monarchy. It also burdens it with a large and unruly French-speaking minority and the fierce enmity of France, as well as binds it to the defence of the Habsburg interests in Italy and Central Europe.
- The Habsburg Empire lost Galicia and Bukovina to Russia, and depending on the PoD it may or may not have lost Bohemia-Moravia to Prussia. It gained Old Bavaria and eastern Switzerland in southern Germany; Parma, Modena, Romagna, Lucca, Tuscany, Marche, and Umbria in northern Italy; Wallachia and central Serbia in the Balkans. After the unification of Germany, the Habsburg reorganized their domains in a few big administrative units: the German lands; the Kingdom of Hungary (including Croatia); and the Kingdom of Italy (including Trent, the Kustenland, and Venetian Dalmatia). Depending on political variables, Wallachia and Serbia might be folded in the Kingdom of Hungary, or (perhaps more likely) form their own separate Kingdoms. The conservative and massive multi-national character of the empire begs for a solution that may seriously vary in character.
- Italy formed a loose confederation broadly similar to the OTL German Confederation. Its member states included Sardinia-Piedment, which got Geneve, Valais, Ticino, eastern Dauphine, eastern Provence, and Corsica; the Habsburg Kingdom of Italy; Papal Latium; and the Kingdom of the Two Sicilies. So far, the Italian nation failed to achieve full unification but its politigal fragmentation got a serious reduction on the basis of a prevailing Habsburg hegemony which might evolve in various ways, also depending on the outcome of its relationship with Germany and France.
- Russia had its OTL territories, and also got Posen, Galicia, Bukovina, Moldavia, Dobruja, Western Armenia, and Iranian Azerbaijan. Due to expansion of the Russian Empire, Poland found itself reunified under Russian rule, while Romania got partitioned between the Habsburg and Russian empires. Russia considerably expanded its influence in Eastern Europe, even if the ultimate goals of its southwards expansion dirve remain unfulfilled.
- Greece got independence within its modern borders, except Thrace, and got much closer to fulfil its irredentist ambitions.
- the Schleswig-Holstein question got settled with the partition of the duchies. North Schleswig became an integral part of Denmark, while Southern Schleswig and Holstein joined Germany as a member state.
How do you expect the liberal revolutions to affect Europe in these circumstances?