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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Dec 1, 2019 10:20:14 GMT
Is it possible to have a surviving CSA as a sort of North Korea-style pariah state in the modern day?
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Dec 1, 2019 10:58:24 GMT
Is it possible to have a surviving CSA as a sort of North Korea-style pariah state in the modern day? Not something like OTL Cuba. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 1, 2019 14:17:36 GMT
Is it possible to have a surviving CSA as a sort of North Korea-style pariah state in the modern day? Just to clarify do you mean a) A surviving CSA as a political state?
b) A surviving CSA as a political state - where blacks are heavily discriminated against and denied many human rights recognised in the OTL west?
c) A surviving CSA as a political state - which has a substantial black population held as slaves.
In terms of answers a) and b) I could see a possibility and in the 2nd case it could well be some sort of pariah type state, albeit with the long boundaries with the rest of N America keeping a sizeable black population inside the country, especially since they would probably be unwelcome there seems unlikely.
In terms of c) I think its very unlikely, unless the world takes a dark path indeed as I can't see such a state surviving in isolation. Hence there would need to be other, powerful nations as brutal and oppressive, if not necessarily practicing racial slavery for it it not to stick out too much. Also I doubt if such states would emerge in the west that would view the CSA as an acceptable ally for some decades after the founding of a successful CSA in ~1860.
I think that presuming the north got rid of slavery on its own territory, which seems likely, it would be tempted to use continued slavery in the south as a reason for conflict at some stage in the following decades. Also that the continuation, let alone any attempt at extending it as many Confederate leaders argued for, would be a very sore point with the UK with the other western powers in most cases backing them diplomatically in such a conflict.
Coupled with the internal problems that slavery would produce, both in terms of keeping the system active, its impact on the wider economy and especially that what suits a relatively small number of plantation owners probably wouldn't be in the longer term interests of the bulk of the white population.
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Post by Middlesex_Toffeeman on Dec 1, 2019 14:29:57 GMT
Is it possible to have a surviving CSA as a sort of North Korea-style pariah state in the modern day? Just to clarify do you mean a) A surviving CSA as a political state?
b) A surviving CSA as a political state - where blacks are heavily discriminated against and denied many human rights recognised in the OTL west?
c) A surviving CSA as a political state - which has a substantial black population held as slaves.
In terms of answers a) and b) I could see a possibility and in the 2nd case it could well be some sort of pariah type state, albeit with the long boundaries with the rest of N America keeping a sizeable black population inside the country, especially since they would probably be unwelcome there seems unlikely.
In terms of c) I think its very unlikely, unless the world takes a dark path indeed as I can't see such a state surviving in isolation. Hence there would need to be other, powerful nations as brutal and oppressive, if not necessarily practicing racial slavery for it it not to stick out too much. Also I doubt if such states would emerge in the west that would view the CSA as an acceptable ally for some decades after the founding of a successful CSA in ~1860.
I think that presuming the north got rid of slavery on its own territory, which seems likely, it would be tempted to use continued slavery in the south as a reason for conflict at some stage in the following decades. Also that the continuation, let alone any attempt at extending it as many Confederate leaders argued for, would be a very sore point with the UK with the other western powers in most cases backing them diplomatically in such a conflict.
Coupled with the internal problems that slavery would produce, both in terms of keeping the system active, its impact on the wider economy and especially that what suits a relatively small number of plantation owners probably wouldn't be in the longer term interests of the bulk of the white population.
I mean b) with slavery abolished at the same time or slightly later than Brazil - by 1900 at most. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Dec 1, 2019 14:44:55 GMT
Just to clarify do you mean a) A surviving CSA as a political state?
b) A surviving CSA as a political state - where blacks are heavily discriminated against and denied many human rights recognised in the OTL west?
c) A surviving CSA as a political state - which has a substantial black population held as slaves.
In terms of answers a) and b) I could see a possibility and in the 2nd case it could well be some sort of pariah type state, albeit with the long boundaries with the rest of N America keeping a sizeable black population inside the country, especially since they would probably be unwelcome there seems unlikely.
In terms of c) I think its very unlikely, unless the world takes a dark path indeed as I can't see such a state surviving in isolation. Hence there would need to be other, powerful nations as brutal and oppressive, if not necessarily practicing racial slavery for it it not to stick out too much. Also I doubt if such states would emerge in the west that would view the CSA as an acceptable ally for some decades after the founding of a successful CSA in ~1860.
I think that presuming the north got rid of slavery on its own territory, which seems likely, it would be tempted to use continued slavery in the south as a reason for conflict at some stage in the following decades. Also that the continuation, let alone any attempt at extending it as many Confederate leaders argued for, would be a very sore point with the UK with the other western powers in most cases backing them diplomatically in such a conflict.
Coupled with the internal problems that slavery would produce, both in terms of keeping the system active, its impact on the wider economy and especially that what suits a relatively small number of plantation owners probably wouldn't be in the longer term interests of the bulk of the white population.
I mean b) with slavery abolished at the same time or slightly later than Brazil - by 1900 at most.
OK thanks for clarifying. A lot would depend on the circumstances, for instance how much restrictions internally or externally would there be to blacks leaving for a better life elsewhere? In such a state you could see Jim Crow like conditions possibly surviving until the present day but there is likely to be substantial economic, social and diplomatic costs and it would be distinctly unpopular, somewhat like white ruled S Africa assuming that the west still develops pretty much as OTL.
Steve
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Post by EwellHolmes on Dec 6, 2019 22:57:15 GMT
Is it possible to have a surviving CSA as a sort of North Korea-style pariah state in the modern day? No, although I could see an Apartheid-South Africa type situation. |
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eurofed
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Post by eurofed on Dec 9, 2019 19:18:37 GMT
Well, I tend to be skeptical about the long-term liveability of a pariah state at North Korea levels of isolation. As a matter of fact, NK itself survived so far just because China massively subsidized its economy for its own strategic interests. Short of drastically restructuring its economy, which was oriented on commodity exports, I am even more skeptical the CSA could survive for long in a situation of extreme international isolation. On the other hand, it is far from impossible to think of an ATL situation where the CSA manages to tone down international hostility at least to apartheid South Africa levels (which demonstrably resisted domestic and external pressures for reform for decades without having a great-power sugar daddy) and/or reaps some meaningful international support.
As a matter of fact, I have been recently considering this kind of scenario. A CSA equivalent arises in Southern North America w/o having been part of the USA and with American benign neglect (at least at the beginning); Brazil picks a far right evolutionary path and clings to slavery as much as possible like the CSA, becoming its South American clone; South Africa gets a major influx of reactionary-minded White immigrants early in its trajectory (say American Loyalists first, refugees from successful radical-democratic 1848 Revolutions in Europe later) and goes Draka on Southern African Blacks. The three states establish an informal trans-Atlantic "Axis of Slavery". If and when chattel slavery turns out truly unsustainable they just switch to hardcore apartheid instead. A great power or three turn hardcore right-wing authoritarian and have few scruples supporting a few middle-power allies/clients with slavery or an apartheid regime, esp. if they just victimize the ethnic group consistently at the bottom of the global totem pole these last few centuries. It might be a successful Axis, a fascist Russia, and/or a fascist China. No strict equivalent of the Holocaust occurs or gets widely publicized to shock public opinion against racism at large by using the typical methods of colonial genocide against Europeans, so prejudice against Blacks remains fashionable or at least tolerable much longer. Of course, in my own planned scenario a few other powers turn more liberal than OTL to try and balance the scales of dystopia, the general TL concept is a global liberal vs. fascist/slaver Cold War that does not concern victorious Nazi tropes, but you get the general idea.
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jan 13, 2020 4:04:46 GMT
Not North Korea levels, but Apartheid South Africa I think is a possible parallel.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 13, 2020 4:54:08 GMT
Not North Korea levels, but Apartheid South Africa I think is a possible parallel. Apartheid South Africa was already dangerous with it nukes,cannot imagine how a CSA with nukes will be. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jan 13, 2020 17:48:00 GMT
Not North Korea levels, but Apartheid South Africa I think is a possible parallel. Apartheid South Africa was already dangerous with it nukes,cannot imagine how a CSA with nukes will be. Confederate nukes would have the same purpose of OTL South African nukes: not to be used domestically against black opposition, but to prevent a foreign incursion to end the internal system of racial oppression. It's deterrence. |
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Post by EwellHolmes on Jan 14, 2020 7:08:04 GMT
The Confederacy would likely be a major power, so I'm doubtful the situation would ever reach the extent of North Korea.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 14, 2020 10:59:01 GMT
The Confederacy would likely be a major power, so I'm doubtful the situation would ever reach the extent of North Korea. As long as they keep France and the United Kingdom as allies I guess. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 14, 2020 11:53:52 GMT
The Confederacy would likely be a major power, so I'm doubtful the situation would ever reach the extent of North Korea. As long as they keep France and the United Kingdom as allies I guess.
That would be extremely unlikely to happen. Even if CSA independence came as a result of a Trent War fiasco by the north and possibly France pitching in because Napoleon III thinks its in his interest and the north insists on fighting on long enough - say a couple of years - so you get a pretty damned harsh treaty for the north and a large resentful/revanchist movement a south that continues to maintain slavery, let alone it being a core elements of their economy and society is going to be a very unlikely ally for anything but a very reactionary Britain or France. [Talking at least semi fascist here which seems especially unlikely in Britain's case].
Far more likely that the south gets into a rumble with either the north or the UK and gets badly knocked about bringing slavery to an end as a result probably within a generation of the initial USCW.
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Post by EwellHolmes on Jan 14, 2020 14:59:29 GMT
The Confederacy would likely be a major power, so I'm doubtful the situation would ever reach the extent of North Korea. As long as they keep France and the United Kingdom as allies I guess. A surviving South keeps slavery viable on the international stage long enough for the Boll Weevil; Britain grew more dependent on cotton as the 19th Century progressed. |
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jan 14, 2020 17:29:04 GMT
As long as they keep France and the United Kingdom as allies I guess. A surviving South keeps slavery viable on the international stage long enough for the Boll Weevil; Britain grew more dependent on cotton as the 19th Century progressed. Doubt that will happen, it mostly will turn into a much harsher version of the Jim Crow laws. |
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