Albania post-WWII in a "Italy stays out" world

[shaunafromthegully]

Assuming Italy manages to stay neutral, or at least, the Allies don't wish her any specific harm, what happens to Italian-occupied Albania after the war under Benny the Moose and his successors?

[lordroel]

Jan 22, 2020 10:24:12 GMT shaunafromthegully said:

Assuming Italy manages to stay neutral, or at least, the Allies don't wish her any specific harm, what happens to Italian-occupied Albania after the war under Benny the Moose and his successors?

What is Albania neighbor Yugoslavia doing in this scenario.

[stevep]

Jan 22, 2020 10:24:12 GMT shaunafromthegully said:

Assuming Italy manages to stay neutral, or at least, the Allies don't wish her any specific harm, what happens to Italian-occupied Albania after the war under Benny the Moose and his successors?

  Not sure if Mussolini still attacks Greece - which might prompt a British dow against him.  However if not there is probably no conflict in the Balkans until the Soviets invade on the heels of the retreating Germans in probably as OTL ~1944-45. 

  Depending on what's happened to Yugoslavia, basically is the government forced to join the Axis or not then that country may not be invaded and its unlikely Greece would.  This would mean Italian Albania is isolated.  If Yugoslavia is dragged into the Axis, or as OTL an anti-fascist coup occurs and its then occupied by the Germans then Yugoslavia will become Soviet controlled or as OTL by Tito.  I think it would depend on the political situation but suspect that a neutral Italy - and hence Albania - is unlikely to be attacked.  The western powers would oppose such as was between the Soviets and Italy is likely to open up the Italian peninsula to Soviet occupation which would be seen as a threat by them.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Jan 22, 2020 18:42:44 GMT stevep said:

Jan 22, 2020 10:24:12 GMT shaunafromthegully said:

Assuming Italy manages to stay neutral, or at least, the Allies don't wish her any specific harm, what happens to Italian-occupied Albania after the war under Benny the Moose and his successors?

  Not sure if Mussolini still attacks Greece - which might prompt a British dow against him.  However if not there is probably no conflict in the Balkans until the Soviets invade on the heels of the retreating Germans in probably as OTL ~1944-45. 

  Depending on what's happened to Yugoslavia, basically is the government forced to join the Axis or not then that country may not be invaded and its unlikely Greece would.  This would mean Italian Albania is isolated.  If Yugoslavia is dragged into the Axis, or as OTL an anti-fascist coup occurs and its then occupied by the Germans then Yugoslavia will become Soviet controlled or as OTL by Tito.  I think it would depend on the political situation but suspect that a neutral Italy - and hence Albania - is unlikely to be attacked.  The western powers would oppose such as was between the Soviets and Italy is likely to open up the Italian peninsula to Soviet occupation which would be seen as a threat by them.

  Steve

Well until the Germans intervened it was a limit Greek-Italian War mostly, with the Italians getting their ass kicked by the Greeks with limit help from the British.

[stevep]

Jan 22, 2020 19:17:55 GMT lordroel said:

Jan 22, 2020 18:42:44 GMT stevep said:

  Not sure if Mussolini still attacks Greece - which might prompt a British dow against him.  However if not there is probably no conflict in the Balkans until the Soviets invade on the heels of the retreating Germans in probably as OTL ~1944-45. 

  Depending on what's happened to Yugoslavia, basically is the government forced to join the Axis or not then that country may not be invaded and its unlikely Greece would.  This would mean Italian Albania is isolated.  If Yugoslavia is dragged into the Axis, or as OTL an anti-fascist coup occurs and its then occupied by the Germans then Yugoslavia will become Soviet controlled or as OTL by Tito.  I think it would depend on the political situation but suspect that a neutral Italy - and hence Albania - is unlikely to be attacked.  The western powers would oppose such as was between the Soviets and Italy is likely to open up the Italian peninsula to Soviet occupation which would be seen as a threat by them.

  Steve

Well until the Germans intervened it was a limit Greek-Italian War mostly, with the Italians getting their ass kicked by the Greeks with limit help from the British.

  Yes but as the thread on WWII day by day Hitler was paranoid about British forces being in striking range of the Polesti oil fields.  Plus he was concerned about Axis prestige and decided he couldn't afford to see Mussolini fail.  Of course if Italy doesn't attack the allies they might not be formally at war against Britain but I suspect that Churchill would still aid Greece, albeit the Greeks might refuse to allow any British forces at all into Greece.  In that case you might have a longer Greco-Italian war which could go either way.  Greek forces were better motivated and with aid from Britain might be better equipped but the Italians, especially if not fighting Britain in Africa and elsewhere, would have a lot more men to throw into the conflict and you could see the Greeks gradually worn down.  At least unless the latter gets desperate enough to ask for direct British support which would almost certainly prompt both war between Italy and Britain and a German intervention.  [Although if this is after Barbarossa Germany might be a bit limited in terms of what forces it could commit in the short term.

[lukedalton]

Benny sent in Albania at least 20.000 colonist so we can be sure that in case of neutrality, he will send more; probably the plan is to make the place a proper part of Italy and use to stir trouble in Jugoslavia and Greece also to stir up albanian nationalism

[stevep]

Jan 24, 2020 23:45:14 GMT lukedalton said:

Benny sent in Albania at least 20.000 colonist so we can be sure that in case of neutrality, he will send more; probably the plan is to make the place a proper part of Italy and use to stir trouble in Jugoslavia and Greece also to stir up albanian nationalism

  I can see him seeking to get more Italians into Albania and probably trying to 'encourage' the locals to switch language to Italian.  However I can't see how trying to incite Albanian nationalism in neighbouring states is likely - albeit Benny's somewhat dodgy judgement.  Not only will it case problems with those states - who are going to be either western or Soviet align while a fascist Italy is likely to be politically somewhat isolated but it would be likely to inspire Albanian nationalism inside Albania itself.

[lukedalton]

Jan 25, 2020 11:43:22 GMT stevep said:

Jan 24, 2020 23:45:14 GMT lukedalton said:

Benny sent in Albania at least 20.000 colonist so we can be sure that in case of neutrality, he will send more; probably the plan is to make the place a proper part of Italy and use to stir trouble in Jugoslavia and Greece also to stir up albanian nationalism

  I can see him seeking to get more Italians into Albania and probably trying to 'encourage' the locals to switch language to Italian.  However I can't see how trying to incite Albanian nationalism in neighbouring states is likely - albeit Benny's somewhat dodgy judgement.  Not only will it case problems with those states - who are going to be either western or Soviet align while a fascist Italy is likely to be politically somewhat isolated but it would be likely to inspire Albanian nationalism inside Albania itself.

It's not that fascist policy in  general was a lot coherent, in general Benny wanted to prop up Albanians nationalism as a mean to make in road in Kosovo and Greece and in WWII  he enlarged a lot Albania even as a mean  to keep quiet the locals.
On the other hand he wanted create what the Russian had done in place like the Baltic state, create a sizeble minority that lord over the original inhabitants

Regarding the geopolitical feasibility of this, much  depend on how ITTL  WWII has gone, a neutral Italy mean an hell of a change