Romanovs stay in power

[insect]

If the Russian revolution failed and the boshevicks did not kill the Romanov's what would be the fate of Russia.

[lordroel]

Feb 9, 2020 9:22:42 GMT insect said:

If the Russian revolution failed and the boshevicks did not kill the Romanov's what would be the fate of Russia.

Ending up like the Westminster system and then having to face Germany in 1941 if the butterflies go that far.

[stevep]

Feb 9, 2020 9:22:42 GMT insect said:

If the Russian revolution failed and the boshevicks did not kill the Romanov's what would be the fate of Russia.

  A lot would depend on how the revolution failed?  Also do you mean the actual revolution in Mar 1917 or the Bolshevik coup in November as that makes quite a difference.

  Assuming the latter still occurs then you have to have some way the royal family escape from their hold because if it looks like their going to lose then their going to seek to kill them as OTL.  If the whites win fairly easily then its likely that the initial government will still be pretty autocratic and probably repressive.  If it takes long and say Nickolas dies and a regency is in place you might get a more moderate leadership as concessions are necessary to win support.  In turn both rumps of the harder line elements such as the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and probably some of the less revolutionary groups will be engaged in assorted activity from strikes and civil disobedience activities to outright terrorism.

  Assuming that the ending of WWI goes roughly as OTL with Germany defeated but Russia largely removed as a major player, a Polish state restored and possibly Finland and the Baltics gaining their independence although with a conservative Russia this is less likely then the US retreating to isolationism you could get events developing as OTL.  Depending on what happens in Russia but without it being Bolshevik it won't be the pariah it was OTL so will be more active in European and world politics and also groups like the Nazis would similarly have them as such a boggy, although fear of a very powerful Russia could replace this.  Not sure what sort of political, social and economic state Russia would be in however and how the interaction between Germany [Nazi or not], Poland and Russia would go.  If WWII still occurs and you have a Nazi invasion of Russia it might be somewhat weaker industrially but stronger socially and demographically so could be very bloody again.

[lordroel]

Feb 9, 2020 16:24:34 GMT stevep said:

Feb 9, 2020 9:22:42 GMT insect said:

If the Russian revolution failed and the boshevicks did not kill the Romanov's what would be the fate of Russia.

  A lot would depend on how the revolution failed?  Also do you mean the actual revolution in Mar 1917 or the Bolshevik coup in November as that makes quite a difference.

  Assuming the latter still occurs then you have to have some way the royal family escape from their hold because if it looks like their going to lose then their going to seek to kill them as OTL.  If the whites win fairly easily then its likely that the initial government will still be pretty autocratic and probably repressive.  If it takes long and say Nickolas dies and a regency is in place you might get a more moderate leadership as concessions are necessary to win support.  In turn both rumps of the harder line elements such as the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and probably some of the less revolutionary groups will be engaged in assorted activity from strikes and civil disobedience activities to outright terrorism.

  Assuming that the ending of WWI goes roughly as OTL with Germany defeated but Russia largely removed as a major player, a Polish state restored and possibly Finland and the Baltics gaining their independence although with a conservative Russia this is less likely then the US retreating to isolationism you could get events developing as OTL.  Depending on what happens in Russia but without it being Bolshevik it won't be the pariah it was OTL so will be more active in European and world politics and also groups like the Nazis would similarly have them as such a boggy, although fear of a very powerful Russia could replace this.  Not sure what sort of political, social and economic state Russia would be in however and how the interaction between Germany [Nazi or not], Poland and Russia would go.  If WWII still occurs and you have a Nazi invasion of Russia it might be somewhat weaker industrially but stronger socially and demographically so could be very bloody again.

This also means that Russia might up remaining in de war.

[stevep]

Feb 9, 2020 16:25:34 GMT lordroel said:

Feb 9, 2020 16:24:34 GMT stevep said:

  A lot would depend on how the revolution failed?  Also do you mean the actual revolution in Mar 1917 or the Bolshevik coup in November as that makes quite a difference.

  Assuming the latter still occurs then you have to have some way the royal family escape from their hold because if it looks like their going to lose then their going to seek to kill them as OTL.  If the whites win fairly easily then its likely that the initial government will still be pretty autocratic and probably repressive.  If it takes long and say Nickolas dies and a regency is in place you might get a more moderate leadership as concessions are necessary to win support.  In turn both rumps of the harder line elements such as the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks and probably some of the less revolutionary groups will be engaged in assorted activity from strikes and civil disobedience activities to outright terrorism.

  Assuming that the ending of WWI goes roughly as OTL with Germany defeated but Russia largely removed as a major player, a Polish state restored and possibly Finland and the Baltics gaining their independence although with a conservative Russia this is less likely then the US retreating to isolationism you could get events developing as OTL.  Depending on what happens in Russia but without it being Bolshevik it won't be the pariah it was OTL so will be more active in European and world politics and also groups like the Nazis would similarly have them as such a boggy, although fear of a very powerful Russia could replace this.  Not sure what sort of political, social and economic state Russia would be in however and how the interaction between Germany [Nazi or not], Poland and Russia would go.  If WWII still occurs and you have a Nazi invasion of Russia it might be somewhat weaker industrially but stronger socially and demographically so could be very bloody again.

This also means that Russia might up remaining in de war.

  Assuming you mean in WWI then that really means at the minimum that the Bolsheviks don't gain power and best of all if the Provisional Government does better.

  If that occurs then things are very different.  A surviving Russia as a victor in the conflict would have a big seat at the peace treaty and role in the following economic decisions as well.  Russia wouldn't be able to pay all its war debts but paying some would ease the pressure on other powers, especially Britain which had huge loans to Russia - exceeding the amounts it borrowed from the US.  Also it would be a check on any German revanchism so making that far more difficult.  It would reduce the influence of Wilson at the peace as trying to keep the US in as an ally against a resurgent Germany would be a lot less important and might also ease French concerns about having to face a more populous Germany on its own.  Since OTL the Bolsheviks were big supporters of the Turks in the war with Greece that might go better for the latter.  Not sure how a primarily democratic Russia would interact with Japan either.

  Basically there are so many variables that just about anything could happen.