stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,877 
Likes: 13,264
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2020 9:11:57 GMT
Suspect that would be largely accurate. Of course with a unified nationalist China prior to the Japanese invasion and less internal conflict as a result it should do somewhat better against Japan - especially since Chiang isn't keeping his best units back to fight the communists. As such what happens when Japan surrenders? If the Soviets occupy Manchuria as OTL then does it return it to the KMT or does it try and establish a communist state there? If it does return it will even Kim be stupid enough to attack the south when his northern border is insecure? If that still happens then would Stalin feel forced to support its ally?
Other than that would agree your likely to see China stay autocratic but markedly less bloody than under Mao.
Steve
Stalin liked Chiang over Mao because Stalin knew he could not control Mao. At least under Chiang he could trade. The Soviets would most likely return Manchuria to the KMT as a sign of goodwill that the USSR respects international norms. The Korean War would be butterflied away if China is ruled by the ROC instead of the PRC. Stalin would have a hard time supporting Kim Il-Sung this time. Even better to ponder even before the actual Korean War, both the USA and the USSR saw Korea as something geographically insignificant for their interests.
I agree about Stalin preferring Chiang initially at least either for the reason your said or because he thought Chiang would be better able to tie down the Japanese. However in the scenario in the video Mao is out of the picture so I would expect Stalin would have some puppet communists under his command. Suspect your right he would return Manchuria to Chiang's government and could have decent relations with it, for a while at least rather than try and set up a puppet regime but its a possibility, especially with such an early POD. I say Chiang may not be as hostile to Stalin, especially if the latter returns such territories, as Stalin did support him against the Japanese and also both have issues with the west. OTL Mao seized western assets without compensation and Chiang was similarly opposed to western control of much of the economy. Also both are likely to see criticism from the US especially about lack of democracy and human rights in their countries.
Also suspect your right about N Korea but it might depend on the circumstances again. If China is a neutral under the KMT then Stalin might see N Korea as an important - and his only - foothold in the region. In which case and with tension rising in Europe such as the Berlin blockade he might think the conquest of S Korea a quick and simple victory. However as the video says that could well be a serious mistake for him.
Steve
|
|
gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,623
Likes: 11,340
|
Post by gillan1220 on May 11, 2020 9:25:23 GMT
Stalin liked Chiang over Mao because Stalin knew he could not control Mao. At least under Chiang he could trade. The Soviets would most likely return Manchuria to the KMT as a sign of goodwill that the USSR respects international norms. The Korean War would be butterflied away if China is ruled by the ROC instead of the PRC. Stalin would have a hard time supporting Kim Il-Sung this time. Even better to ponder even before the actual Korean War, both the USA and the USSR saw Korea as something geographically insignificant for their interests.
I agree about Stalin preferring Chiang initially at least either for the reason your said or because he thought Chiang would be better able to tie down the Japanese. However in the scenario in the video Mao is out of the picture so I would expect Stalin would have some puppet communists under his command. Suspect your right he would return Manchuria to Chiang's government and could have decent relations with it, for a while at least rather than try and set up a puppet regime but its a possibility, especially with such an early POD. I say Chiang may not be as hostile to Stalin, especially if the latter returns such territories, as Stalin did support him against the Japanese and also both have issues with the west. OTL Mao seized western assets without compensation and Chiang was similarly opposed to western control of much of the economy. Also both are likely to see criticism from the US especially about lack of democracy and human rights in their countries.
Also suspect your right about N Korea but it might depend on the circumstances again. If China is a neutral under the KMT then Stalin might see N Korea as an important - and his only - foothold in the region. In which case and with tension rising in Europe such as the Berlin blockade he might think the conquest of S Korea a quick and simple victory. However as the video says that could well be a serious mistake for him.
Steve
On the good side though, you'd butterfly the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, and the Tiananmen Square Massacre. While there were already lots of Chinese in the Western United States and Canada, most of those Chinese that escaped during Operation Yellowbird would probably remain in China. What I am interested here is will the ROC in the mainland still pursue nuclear weapons and space exploration. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,877
Likes: 13,264
|
Post by stevep on May 11, 2020 10:48:42 GMT
I agree about Stalin preferring Chiang initially at least either for the reason your said or because he thought Chiang would be better able to tie down the Japanese. However in the scenario in the video Mao is out of the picture so I would expect Stalin would have some puppet communists under his command. Suspect your right he would return Manchuria to Chiang's government and could have decent relations with it, for a while at least rather than try and set up a puppet regime but its a possibility, especially with such an early POD. I say Chiang may not be as hostile to Stalin, especially if the latter returns such territories, as Stalin did support him against the Japanese and also both have issues with the west. OTL Mao seized western assets without compensation and Chiang was similarly opposed to western control of much of the economy. Also both are likely to see criticism from the US especially about lack of democracy and human rights in their countries.
Also suspect your right about N Korea but it might depend on the circumstances again. If China is a neutral under the KMT then Stalin might see N Korea as an important - and his only - foothold in the region. In which case and with tension rising in Europe such as the Berlin blockade he might think the conquest of S Korea a quick and simple victory. However as the video says that could well be a serious mistake for him.
Steve
On the good side though, you'd butterfly the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, and the Tiananmen Square Massacre. While there were already lots of Chinese in the Western United States and Canada, most of those Chinese that escaped during Operation Yellowbird would probably remain in China. What I am interested here is will the ROC in the mainland still pursue nuclear weapons and space exploration.
Well with a repressive KMT regime I can see incidents like Tiananmen but the other two aren't going to occur.
Didn't know about Operation Yellowbird - may have heard about it nearer the date and forgotten. Thought a lot of the Chinese in N America came in the century before that however? The wiki article on it says it only got out about 400 people. However I think that economic and political interest would probably mean still a substantial Chinese diaspora developing and a KMT government may be less restrictive in allowing economic migration especially. - It may even be restricted on the other side. I remember reading of an exchange between Deng and Carter in the late 70's where Carter complained about Chinese controls preventing migration of people who wanted to leave and Deng replying how many tens of millions do you want or something like that.
I would say I can't see China not trying to become a nuclear power. Apart from any military security issues, especially with the USSR on the border, its a political statement of being a 'great' power and having influence which is something China would definitely want. Space exploration might be a bit less important to a more conservative China, although it will want to launch its own satellites and if prestige becomes an issues manned missions are likely to be attractive to the regime.
One interesting issue might be depending on what happens in Indo-China but how China would react to attacks on Chinese minorities there. If you got something like OTL boat people as many flee discrimination [whether national or political] or anything like the regime in OTL Cambodia massacring people wholesale which could well include Chinese.
Steve
|
|
gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,623
Likes: 11,340
|
Post by gillan1220 on May 11, 2020 14:12:48 GMT
On the good side though, you'd butterfly the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, and the Tiananmen Square Massacre. While there were already lots of Chinese in the Western United States and Canada, most of those Chinese that escaped during Operation Yellowbird would probably remain in China. What I am interested here is will the ROC in the mainland still pursue nuclear weapons and space exploration.
Well with a repressive KMT regime I can see incidents like Tiananmen but the other two aren't going to occur.
Didn't know about Operation Yellowbird - may have heard about it nearer the date and forgotten. Thought a lot of the Chinese in N America came in the century before that however? The wiki article on it says it only got out about 400 people. However I think that economic and political interest would probably mean still a substantial Chinese diaspora developing and a KMT government may be less restrictive in allowing economic migration especially. - It may even be restricted on the other side. I remember reading of an exchange between Deng and Carter in the late 70's where Carter complained about Chinese controls preventing migration of people who wanted to leave and Deng replying how many tens of millions do you want or something like that.
I would say I can't see China not trying to become a nuclear power. Apart from any military security issues, especially with the USSR on the border, its a political statement of being a 'great' power and having influence which is something China would definitely want. Space exploration might be a bit less important to a more conservative China, although it will want to launch its own satellites and if prestige becomes an issues manned missions are likely to be attractive to the regime.
One interesting issue might be depending on what happens in Indo-China but how China would react to attacks on Chinese minorities there. If you got something like OTL boat people as many flee discrimination [whether national or political] or anything like the regime in OTL Cambodia massacring people wholesale which could well include Chinese.
Steve
Also interesting here would be how the East China Sea, South China Sea, Kashmir, and Manchuria terroritorial disputes. |
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 11, 2020 14:16:19 GMT
I blame Truman for letting China fall to the communists.
|
|
gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,623
Likes: 11,340
|
Post by gillan1220 on May 11, 2020 15:37:32 GMT
I blame Truman for letting China fall to the communists. Truman declared China a loss because of KMT corruption and incompetence. |
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 11, 2020 17:02:47 GMT
I blame Truman for letting China fall to the communists. Truman declared China a loss because of KMT corruption and incompetence. In other words: Truman blamed Chiang Kai-shek for the situation ? Chiang should've whacked Mao & those communists when he had the chance. |
|
gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,623
Likes: 11,340
|
Post by gillan1220 on May 12, 2020 3:22:56 GMT
Truman declared China a loss because of KMT corruption and incompetence. In other words: Truman blamed Chiang Kai-shek for the situation ? Chiang should've whacked Mao & those communists when he had the chance. Yes he did blame KMT incompetence for the situation. The KMT was racked with those hence they could not effectively fight the communists. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,877
Likes: 13,264
|
Post by stevep on May 12, 2020 11:31:31 GMT
Well with a repressive KMT regime I can see incidents like Tiananmen but the other two aren't going to occur.
Didn't know about Operation Yellowbird - may have heard about it nearer the date and forgotten. Thought a lot of the Chinese in N America came in the century before that however? The wiki article on it says it only got out about 400 people. However I think that economic and political interest would probably mean still a substantial Chinese diaspora developing and a KMT government may be less restrictive in allowing economic migration especially. - It may even be restricted on the other side. I remember reading of an exchange between Deng and Carter in the late 70's where Carter complained about Chinese controls preventing migration of people who wanted to leave and Deng replying how many tens of millions do you want or something like that.
I would say I can't see China not trying to become a nuclear power. Apart from any military security issues, especially with the USSR on the border, its a political statement of being a 'great' power and having influence which is something China would definitely want. Space exploration might be a bit less important to a more conservative China, although it will want to launch its own satellites and if prestige becomes an issues manned missions are likely to be attractive to the regime.
One interesting issue might be depending on what happens in Indo-China but how China would react to attacks on Chinese minorities there. If you got something like OTL boat people as many flee discrimination [whether national or political] or anything like the regime in OTL Cambodia massacring people wholesale which could well include Chinese.
Steve
Also interesting here would be how the East China Sea, South China Sea, Kashmir, and Manchuria terroritorial disputes.
I suspect once China became powerful enough, much the same. Possibly not pushing quite so far in some of the odder cases, like building artificial islands but a strong China, like most states has tended to look to expand the area under its control.
|
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 12, 2020 12:05:10 GMT
Also interesting here would be how the East China Sea, South China Sea, Kashmir, and Manchuria terroritorial disputes.
I suspect once China became powerful enough, much the same. Possibly not pushing quite so far in some of the odder cases, like building artificial islands but a strong China, like most states has tended to look to expand the area under its control.
Like I said before: Chiang should've whacked Mao & those communists when he had the chance. Otherwise, the world would've been better off. |
|
gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
Posts: 12,623
Likes: 11,340
|
Post by gillan1220 on May 13, 2020 4:18:15 GMT
Also interesting here would be how the East China Sea, South China Sea, Kashmir, and Manchuria terroritorial disputes.
I suspect once China became powerful enough, much the same. Possibly not pushing quite so far in some of the odder cases, like building artificial islands but a strong China, like most states has tended to look to expand the area under its control.
Probably not as tense as it is today. Look at the ROC for example. They do not aggressively claim those islands compared to their mainland counterparts. |
|
James G
Squadron vice admiral
Posts: 7,608
Likes: 8,833
|
Post by James G on May 13, 2020 17:17:09 GMT
Nationalist China wins and is the ruling country today...
So what about Hong Kong and Macau?
|
|
lordroel
Administrator
Member is Online
Posts: 68,156
Likes: 49,541
|
Post by lordroel on May 13, 2020 18:15:41 GMT
Nationalist China wins and is the ruling country today... So what about Hong Kong and Macau? Remain British for Hong Kong if the British can make a good deal with the ROC. |
|
stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,877
Likes: 13,264
|
Post by stevep on May 14, 2020 8:56:39 GMT
Nationalist China wins and is the ruling country today... So what about Hong Kong and Macau? Remain British for Hong Kong if the British can make a good deal with the ROC.
I suspect not. The KMT was hostile to Britain more than any other of the foreign powers because it had been the dominant power during the 19thC. Also if nothing else earlier then the lease on the New Territories expires in 1997, after which the central territories are simply too small to survive. Plus a KMT China, unless it really upsets the US the latter is likely to favour it over Britain on the issue.
Similarly but more so for Macau as Portugal is a markedly smaller and less powerful protector plus its not a democratic state so it's unlikely to get much international support if China decided to take the colony by force.
Steve
|
|
|
|
Post by 49ersfootball on May 14, 2020 12:06:24 GMT
Remain British for Hong Kong if the British can make a good deal with the ROC.
I suspect not. The KMT was hostile to Britain more than any other of the foreign powers because it had been the dominant power during the 19thC. Also if nothing else earlier then the lease on the New Territories expires in 1997, after which the central territories are simply too small to survive. Plus a KMT China, unless it really upsets the US the latter is likely to favour it over Britain on the issue.
Similarly but more so for Macau as Portugal is a markedly smaller and less powerful protector plus its not a democratic state so it's unlikely to get much international support if China decided to take the colony by force.
Steve
The DPP saw an opportunity to take the Presidency in 2000. |
|
