Alternate Election Maps Feb 7, 2021 13:08:55 GMT
Post by stevep on Feb 7, 2021 13:08:55 GMT
To give this map a bit of context:
- Brexit never happened (there was a very narrow Remain victory in the referendum);
- David Cameron stayed on as Prime Minister, although once his term expired, he didn't run for another one;
- Going into this election, the Conservative leader is Theresa May. She's running on a platform of 'soft Euroscepticism' (where she respects the Remain victory in the referendum, and therefore advocates continued membership of the EU - but, she opposes certain EU policies);
- Both Labour and the Conservatives lose a lot of their 'Leave' voters to UKIP. My guess is that UKIP is getting about 50-60% of the 'Leave' vote here, and about 25-30% of the popular vote overall (though they're underrepresented compared to Labour and the Tories, because first past the post is screwing them over). Indeed, in some constituencies, UKIP hasn't taken enough votes away from the Tories to win the seat outright... but they *have* taken away enough votes to throw the seat to Labour or the Lib Dems! (Though, I'm not so sure about Scarborough and Whitby going to Labour, or Yeovil going to the Lib Dems: the former probably had a non-negligible Labour-Leave vote, while the latter probably had a non-negligible Lib Dem-Leave vote. Maybe the local UKIP candidates had scandals or something )
Interesting scenario? Who is the Labour leader? If its still Corbyn then we have three large parties, all with pretty extreme groups in charge of them which is likely to lead to chaos and even more bad government. I can't see UKIP agreeing with Labour so expect there would be some kind of Tory-UKIP coalition, or at least some agreements. However would UKIP agree to anything without a new referendum, which could be a hard sell to both the Tories who dodged a bullet here? Even then its going to be a slim majority even assuming they probably get the Unionists supporting them under most circumstances.
Unless a lot of the UKIP support from former Tories has moderated that party a lot and Labour, with a moderate post-Corbyn leader then you might just have some agreement between those parties. That would be pretty unstable I think. May was basically a pro-EU figure, albeit not outspokenly so but the ingrown hostility between the two parties would be difficult to overcome.
Either way I would suspect a new election wouldn't be too far away.
For Yeovil did you mean leave or remain given how deeply the remain bloc has dug into the Libdems? There used to be some skeptic elements in the SW, especially among the fishing community and a couple of the 1st MEP's for the party in 92 were of that alignment but I think their been pretty much eradicated nowadays.