gillan1220
Fleet admiral
I've been depressed recently. Slow replies coming in the next few days.
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Post by gillan1220 on Jan 15, 2021 3:45:22 GMT
Then the PLA would experience what the Americans before them tried.
Although the Chinese would be far more numerous and brutal and unless their getting aid from Russia the Vietnamese are probably on their own. Their still got a lot of veteran forces at this point and the Chinese are already fighting in the Philippines but I would suspect they would be worn down over time.
At this period, the Soviets were still at Cam Ranh Bay. Aside from veteran forces, the Vietnamese have tons of leftover weapons from the Vietnam War. |
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 15, 2021 4:22:13 GMT
The point about Cam Ranh Bay is a valid one, though the OTL Soviet withdrawal of its Air Force was already completed by 1989. ITTL, it might be on schedule as well, although given its position, Cam Ranh Bay's Soviet naval vessels would have also been withdrawn back to Vladivostok. I can guarantee you that China would have its eye on Cam Ranh Bay for the takeover of the former US and Soviet military base there, with a simple strongarming of the Vietnamese government. In addition, there was also the FULRO Insurgency in Vietnam, consisting of Montagnards and Cham peoples as well, and they were mainly supported by the Khmer Rouge and China. ITTL, combined with a Chinese offensive against Vietnam and the Philippines, you might also see the FULRO gain some recognition by the Chinese, as well as possible Vietnamese territorial losses in addition to Paracel Island.
However, China at this point is also starting to develop its air force bombers, as the Xian H-6 was just getting mass produced at this point. You might also see a more sophisticated research into China's bombers, and other fighter planes as well. In addition, the larger costs of rebuilding the Bay Area as a result of a worse Loma Prieta Earthquake would take a huge hit out of the US defense budget, which would possibly result in the temporary suspension of some of its military projects. This would also have a huge effect on American military operations in Nicaragua (mentioned this already), and even a possible scaling back of its military forces from its bases in Japan, South Korea, the Middle East, and Europe.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 15, 2021 4:51:01 GMT
Chapter Twenty-Five: A Speck of Sand
IRANIAN FORCES CLOSE IN ON IRAQI PORT OF AL-FAW AS IRAQI TROOPS ESTABLISH DEFENSES AROUND BASRA AND ABUL-KHASIB
Washington Post
January 21, 1987
Abadan, IRAN – Iranian troops under the command of Hossein Kharazi had launched a new offensive against Iraqi forces, with the sole aim of capturing the lightly defended port of Al-Faw. Though the Iranian troops are not as well armed and well supplied as their Iraqi counterparts, the Iraqi military has divided its attention between the incoming Iranian invasion, as well as Kurdish uprisings against Saddam Hussein’s authority within Iraq. Meanwhile, Iranian defenders had successfully repulsed an attempted Iraqi operation to capture the Iranian border town of Mehran, resulting in significant casualties sustained by the Iraqi forces that failed in their objective.
“We have bloodied the hated enemy in the gates of our nation! With Allah’s guidance, we shall free the Iraqi people from the rule of the apostate maniac in Saddam Hussein!” Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini said in front of his supporters during a patriotic gathering inside Tehran. “We have many martyrs who died for the cause, but our spirit will never be destroyed by any weapon in their arsenal!”
Should Iranian troops succeed in capturing Al-Faw, they could easily block Iraq’s access to the Persian Gulf, and at the same time, deprive the Iraqi Navy of its only harbor from which they could repair their damaged ships. However, if Iraqi forces managed to hold on to their only port in the Persian Gulf, they could launch coastal raids throughout the Iranian coasts in the Persian Gulf. However, sitting in the Persian Gulf is the US Navy’s Middle East Task Force, which is given the task of monitoring the conflict between Iraq and Iran, to make sure that either side does not attack ships bearing the American flag. At one-point, Iraqi aircraft came close to attacking one of the American vessels, but a timely warning from American naval officers to Iraqi Air Force pilots had averted the attack. Still, President Reagan has been told of the developments taking place in the Persian Gulf.
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“The fall of Al-Faw, though inconsequential in the eventual failure of Operation Karbala-5, its capture by the Iranian military had been a major factor in the following Iranian military operation, codenamed Karbala-6, which was supposed to be the major Iranian thrust from Qasr-e Shirin, and into the Iraqi border town of Khanaqin. Al-Faw’s capture by the Iranians had forced Saddam to divert much of the troops defending Basra, into recapturing Al-Faw, which the Iranians had anticipated all along. The diversion provided enough time for the Iranians to not only blitz their way into the lightly defended Khanaqin, but also link up with Kurdish rebel forces, which had seized control of Penjwen, on the border between Iraqi Kurdistan and western Iran, at the same time as the fall of Khanaqin. Unfortunately for Saddam, when Iraqi troops arrived at the gates of Al-Faw, General Hossein Kharazi ordered some of his paramilitaries to simply block off the Iraqis’ path of retreat as they had suddenly entered a meat grinder inside the only Iraqi port on the Persian Gulf. Al Seeba was taken by the Iranians in just four hours, while employing a tactic that was like Alexander Lebed’s preferred tactic of isolating strong garrisons to wipe them out completely in separate attacks, first employed during the mid-stages of the Soviet-Afghan War. However, Iraq still had Um Qasr as their backup port, which was where the remnants of the Iraqi Navy had retreated to, but Iranian forces were unable to take the second port, as most of their troops had become exhausted from the offensive into Al-Faw. The constant diversionary attacks inflicted upon Saddam’s forces would take several months to complete, by which time Basrah was ripe for the taking, which the Iranian forces finally did on November 19, 1987.” From “The Violent Demise of Ba’athist Iraq”, broadcasted by TRT Documentaries.
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DOLE ADMINISTRATION DEFENDS $51 BILLION DOLLAR BUDGET ALLOCATION FOR RECONSTRUCTION FROM LOMA PRIETA EARTHQUAKE IN SAN FRANCISCO AND OAKLAND
Los Angeles Times
January 21, 1990
Washington, DC – President Bob Dole today had defended his decision to slash the defense budget by 18%, citing the nation’s priority being redirected to reconstruction efforts after the deadly Loma Prieta Earthquake that resulted in over 5,000 casualties (the count was updated as of January 20, 1990) and resulted in over $6 billion dollars in damages. The criticism came from top officers within the US military, whose reduced budget would result in its hindrance of several military operations that they are conducting in Nicaragua right now, as well as the US Navy's Middle East Task Force charged with monitoring the current war between Iraq and Iran. Most importantly, the reconstruction efforts would also include the research on how to design future buildings that will be able to resist earthquakes. Additionally, President Dole has issued a moratorium on the construction of double deck viaduct structures, citing its potential safety hazard for motorists, as the earthquake had demonstrated with numerous unaccounted victims that have yet to be rescued.
“While we stress the importance of having a strong military, we also need to stress the importance of making sure our citizens are safe and sound when they commute to and from their work site. Our pride in the ability to finish a construction project has been taken a hit when it is revealed that none of the buildings, we made have passed the earthquake resistant standard tests. Most importantly, the prosperity of our citizens is exactly why our armed forces are fighting on the front lines around the world,” Dole explains during the press briefings. “In addition, the Loma Prieta earthquake has taught us a lesson in due diligence and its application in the projects we complete, and the products we make. What is the point of constructing a commercial building that can be the highest, if it can easily be knocked down by an earthquake, let alone tsunamis and landslides?”
Though the most ardent of the hawks within the Dole administration are insistent on keeping up with the Soviet military threat to the world, the softening of the tensions between the superpowers have occurred, with the Earthquake Diplomacy initiated by President Dole when the United States cooperated with the Soviet Union on the rescuing of its earthquake victims in the Spitak Earthquake a year prior to the Loma Prieta Earthquake. However, much of the US government officials had criticized President Dole’s acceptance of Soviet aid during the aftermath of Loma Prieta, viewing it as nothing short of humiliation, but the Dole administration would not budge on the topic.
“I think that the Earthquake Diplomacy could also be used to push forward the gradual democratization of the Soviet Union, and to ensure that we create a political climate that is suited for an eventual post-Cold War scenario,” comments Vice President Paul Laxalt. “President Dole is also trying to tone down the militaristic tone taken from our own government and military for the sake of humanity and world peace, but that is not to say, that he will just adopt a pacifist policy. Far from it, we are trying to avoid the same mistakes that the Soviets are making, which is the over-investment in our military.”
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49ERS FOOTBALL TEAM TO RELOCATE TO PORTLAND ON TEMPORARY BASIS UNTIL NEW EARTHQUAKE-PROOF STADIUM CAN BE COMPLETED
Portland Tribune
January 25, 1990
Portland, OREGON – In what was essentially an unsurprising announcement from the National Football League, the San Francisco 49ers football team has decided to relocate itself from San Francisco, due to its stadium being damaged because of the Loma Prieta Earthquake. To the surprise of Oregonians, the 49ers would settle in Portland on a temporary basis until a new stadium can be built (though the new stadium, like all future buildings in the US West Coast, would have to pass an extremely strict earthquake resistance standard test before it can be opened, as per President Dole’s Executive Order No. 12696). In the meanwhile, the relocated 49ers would be temporarily rebranded as the Portland Storm, in honor of the original Portland Storm that competed in the World Football League.
“While we are a bit disappointed that the 49ers are not going to be playing in the Bay Area until the new stadium can be built, we are excited to be playing in Portland, Oregon. In fact, it was Portland’s mayor Bud Clark who proposed to the NFL that his city can host the 49ers while we are getting the new stadium built,” comments 49ers Coach George Seifert. “We have all agreed on the name of the new stadium though; we will name it in honor of our late Wide Receiver Jerry Rice.”
The proposed Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium, to be built in the Embarcadero neighborhood of San Francisco, was not well received by the NFL, who felt that it was too close to the epicenter of the earthquake that killed Jerry Rice, but it took both NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue and US President Bob Dole to convince the 49ers staff that the Jerry Rice Memorial Stadium would be the first test subject in one of the President’s Building Construction Reforms that would emphasize on meeting tough earthquake resistant standard tests, as well as stability and the ability to withstand other natural disasters. However, the construction workers must demolish the incomplete portion of State Route 480, which had been built with the double deck viaduct structure before President Dole’s ban on such structures as it was the primary cause for the massive casualties during the Loma Prieta Earthquake.
Meanwhile, Portlanders and other Oregonians would be happy to know that they do not need to constantly cheer for their northern neighbor’s team in the Seattle Seahawks, with the advent of the NFL version of the Portland Storm. Once the relocation effort is complete, the Portland Storm will remain in the NFC West, possibly setting up for a cross-border grudge match between the Storm and the Seahawks. However, President Dole is confirmed to be a great fan of the Kansas City Chiefs but has promised to attend the inaugural game that the Portland Storm will play in the 1990 NFL Season opener.
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SYRIA THE SECOND NATION TO RECOGNIZE RUSSIAN PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT
The Moscow Times
August 4, 1990
Yekaterinburg/Isetgrad, ISETGRAD OBLAST – The Syrian government of President Hafez al-Assad today recognized the Russian provisional government that was created under the authority of Acting President Gennady Burbulis, with Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa making a perilous visit to Yekaterinburg to meet with his Russian provisional government counterpart, Acting Foreign Minister Alexander Bessmertnykh, who defected to the Russian National Revival Movement from the Soviet government, offering his services as Acting Foreign Minister. The agreement made between the Russian Provisional Government and the Syrian Government included the recognition by Syria of Russia’s legal status as the successor to the crumbling Soviet Union. Unlike the visit by Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, who came to Yekaterinburg on behalf of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, to seek advice on Iraq’s planned invasion of Kuwait, Syrian Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa arrived to negotiate the status of the Soviet naval base in Tartus, and to also speak on behalf of the Lebanese government, which is currently cooperating with the Syrian government.
“It is surprising that we are getting more support from the Arab world than in either the West or in the Far East. We are also glad to receive recognition from the Syrians as well, and that we are open to the idea of discussing a potential Russian intervention in the Lebanese crisis as well,” says Bessmertnykh after being asked about the future of the Middle East after a possible Russian rebel victory over the Soviet government. “Perhaps it would be more prudent for us to consider extending the lease on the Tartus naval base, or to negotiate a reasonable rental price until we can obtain additional cooperation from our Lebanese counterpart.”
Perhaps that the Russian Provisional Government might also be open to the overtures made by the Lebanese government in solving its political crisis ever since the Lebanese Civil War had broken out, though the Soviet government at the time of the Lebanese Civil War’s outbreak was not in any position to help, other than to rescue Soviet hostages taken by Hezbollah, using the KGB’s infamous tactics of tit-for-tat. Though on the location of a potential Russian naval base in case Tartus was shut down would most likely be in Lebanon, in the city of Batroun, populated by the predominantly Greek Orthodox population. Sur or Jounieh are also possible candidates, though Sur is populated by Shia Muslims, and most likely be targeted by Hezbollah for its terrorist attacks, and Jounieh is populated by Maronies, a potential religious rival to the predominantly Russian Orthodox Christians.
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IRANIAN FORCES FAILED TO SEIZE UM QASR, SUFFER MASSIVE LOSSES AS IRAQI DEFENDERS HOLD ON REMAINING PORT
Washington Post
March 31, 1987
Um Qasr, IRAQ – Iraqi forces today had reported the successful defense of the remaining port under Iraqi control, Um Qasr, as Iranian troops under the command of Hossein Kharazi had failed to seize the port’s outskirts, in a hotly contested battle to cut off the Iraqi Navy from its remaining port, as Al-Faw had already been under Iranian occupation. Several Iranian troops were taken prisoner by the advancing Iraqi forces that have arrived in relief the defenders of Um Qasr, but General Kharazi managed to escape with what remained of the Iranian forces that did not fall into Iraqi hands. Though Ayatollah Khomeini’s response was to simply order more offensives, other Iranian forces who are helping the Iraqi Kurds to fight the Ba’athist regime in Baghdad have managed to take control of 12% of Iraqi Kurdistan.
“The Iranian forces are making progress in forcing Saddam’s army to march towards their only lifeline in the Persian Gulf, to divert its attention from the advances they are making towards Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah,” Nawshirwan Mustafa commented when being asked by an Iranian reporter about the Peshmerga’s role in the war against Saddam. “Although much of our Peshmerga forces have taken a beating against the Iraqi forces fighting us, their fighting capability has been degraded by constant raids on their military posts, both by our Peshmerga forces and Iranian troops that have entered Iraqi territory.”
By now, much of the garrison troops defending the major Iraqi city of Basra had decreased, with major Iranian offensives being aimed at striking Iraqi targets at Amarah and Al Musharrah, but in addition to those targets, Iranian forces have also managed to capture several Iraqi conscripts who are of Shia Muslim descent, and started forming so-called Liberation Brigades, often indoctrinating them with the Ayatollah’s ideology. In fact, several Iraqi brigades had reported to the world of the Liberation Brigade prisoners they captured, only to discover that they had once served the very same army that had now made them prisoners of war. In Tehran, Qasem-Ali Zahirnejad had confirmed the reports of Iran’s decreasing capability to wage future battles as UN sanctions have started to take a toll on the nation’s economy.
“The Great Satan has continued its merciless war upon the servants of Allah, and its chief servant in the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Even as we are running short on supplies, we are never short on the fighting spirit of our troops,” General Zahirnejad commented after finishing a rally inside Tehran. “It is only a matter of time before the great city of Basra, and the holy sites of Karbala and Najaf, will fall under our control.”
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“What do you mean, Basra has fallen? How the hell did you morons screw up in the defense of the city? Oh, so you ran out of food and ammunition for your troops? All right, pull out of the city while you still can. We will set up a new defensive stronghold in Nasiriyah and Kut. Then we will bleed those fanatics dry long enough for them to negotiate a ceasefire with us. And while we are at it, I need Ali to come back to the capital. We need to deal with the damned Kurdish traitors right now!” Saddam Hussein to Adnan Khairallah, after the fall of Basra to the 13,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers that have been deployed for the June 19, 1987 Basra Offensive.
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SULAYMANIYAH FALLS TO JOINT KURDISH-IRANIAN OFFENSIVE, BAGHDAD GOVERNMENT CONFIRMS REPORTS OF ADDITIONAL KURDISH REBELLIONS IN OTHER PARTS OF IRAQI KURDISTAN
Los Angeles Times
December 8, 1987
Sulaymaniyah, IRAQI KURDISTAN – Iraqi troops, already weakened by the Iranian capture of Basra and the fall of Um Qasr on September 25, 1987, had surrendered to the advancing forces of the Kurdish Peshmerga and elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, though in small but steady formations. The capture of one of the major centers of Iraq’s Kurdish minority, had encouraged additional rebellions by Iraqi Kurds in other parts of the country as Kirkuk, Erbil and even Mosul, are undergoing Kurdish revolts within those cities. Several Kurdish reports also confirm that an Iranian airstrike had killed Ali Hassan al-Majid, while attempting to return to Halabja to give orders for the Kurdish revolts to be suppressed. In addition, many Kurdish militias that have risen in regions of Iraqi Kurdistan not under the control of the Peshmerga have started to round up Iraqi Arab residents of the region and forcibly expelled them from territories that the Iraqi Kurds have claimed to be a part of a possible independent Kurdish state. Moreover, Jalal Talabani has also been reported to have survived an Iraqi airstrike by moving from one city to another, though his command of the Peshmerga were at best marginal. Finally, Iraqi military officials have confirmed that additional Iranian Revolutionary Guards personnel have been spotted entering northeastern Iraq, to capture the towns of Choman and Qalat Dizah.
“The death of the infamous butcher of Kurdistan, Ali Hassan al-Majid, is a turning point in our struggle for an independent Kurdistan. With the help of our Iranian brothers, we will be able to strike at the heart of Saddam’s regime and destroy it, once and for all,” Jalal Talabani commented after his Peshmerga forces have taken Sulaymaniyah. “In addition, we call on all the Kurds of the entire Middle East region to come and join our struggle for an independent Kurdistani state that we are building today.”
Neighboring Syria is watching the events unfold in Iraq with trepidation, as Hafez al-Assad’s regime is also monitoring for the activities of its Syrian Kurdish minority in the region. Syrian Arab Army officials are worried that the success of the Iraqi Kurds may also embolden Syria’s own Kurds to launch an uprising against the Damascus government. Moreover, both Turkey and Iran, which have Kurdish minorities of their own, are in the middle of their own Kurdish Uprising, with the PKK forces engaged in armed conflicts with the Turkish government, and Kurdish separatists in western Iran are engaged in a war against the clerical regime of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Finally, Israel’s government under Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir is also monitoring the situation in Iraq, primarily because it is hopeful that a Kurdish uprising in both Iraq and Syria would allow the Israeli Defense Force to expand past the occupied portion of the Golan Heights and into southern Syria and re-occupy southern Lebanon to dislodge the Syrian Army occupation force out of Lebanon.
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“The rebellion in Iraqi Kurdistan because of a worse performance by Iraq’s military during the Iran-Iraq War could no longer be called a rebellion: it was an actual uprising that had already added the gasoline to the flames of Kurdish revolts in Turkey, Syria and Iran. Three countries that have Kurdish minorities, are in the middle of a Kurdish revolt, and Iraqi Kurdistan was the first Kurdish entity to be legally recognized as a de facto independent Kurdish state. With the United States reeling from the Loma Prieta Earthquake and the massive investment made into rebuilding its shattered infrastructure, its slashed military budget has resulted in scaling back of its earlier military commitments around the world. Likewise, the former Soviet Union had not taken advantage of the United States’ military scale back from the world, as it would fall into a civil war that would ultimately result in the violent death of the Soviet Union itself, and one of the infamous communist regimes in the world. By the time, the Cold War was formally declared to be over in 1997, with the ascension of Jack Kemp as President of the United States, the transition to a democratic government of Gennady Burbulis in Russia and the formation of a Union State of Ukraine and Belarus under President Mykola Azarov, and China’s unilateral seizure of the contested Spratly Islands chain being complete, much of the world have greatly changed. Yet the greatest geopolitical change that occurred from the post-Loma Prieta Earthquake period took place in the Middle East, where a de facto independent Kurdish state was now established, with its capital in Erbil, close to the border with the territory of Syrian Kurdistan.” Mehmet Aktaş, from the documentary “Kurdistan: Birth of the Youngest Country in the Middle East”.
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TREATY OF KUWAIT (February 28, 1989)
Terms of the Treaty:
1) Iraqi Kurdistan is to receive political autonomy from the Baghdad government, in exchange for remaining a part of Iraq. In addition, Iraq is to undergo federalization, with self-governing entities established for each of Iraq’s main religious and ethnic groups: Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish minority. In addition, an Iraqi Turkmen autonomous province would be established for the Iraqi Turkmen minority as well.
2) Iraq is to pay a war indemnity of $37 million dollars to Iran for war damages, as well as for being the prime aggressor in the start of the Iran-Iraq War. The payment will come in both cash, gold, and goods as well.
3) The strip of southern Iraq, especially parts of the Basra Governorate that touches its coastline with the Persian Gulf, is to become a de-militarized buffer zone, with the city of Basra, falling under an independent governing council. It shall have a referendum on its status within ten years time.
4) Finally, the ports of Um Qasr and Al-Faw that will fall under the control of the Basra Independent Administrative Jurisdiction, will be forbidden from hosting any naval vessel whatsoever. In addition, the entirety of the Iraqi Navy is to surrender all of its fleet to the Iranian Navy, while its naval personnel will have the option of either pledging its allegiance to the Islamic Republic of Iran, or to join the Basra IAJ’s newly established Coast Guard or Police Force.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 15, 2021 8:33:36 GMT
True, and judging by the part where China takes the entirety of the Spratlys, you can safely guess that even Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia would get involved, though I might also suspect that Tadiar may also send troops to help the Vietnamese, despite their ideological incompatibility. Moreover, Vietnam would be more exhausted from fighting both the Chinese and the Khmer Rouge insurgents. (Vietnam by 1989 may be in the process of withdrawing from Cambodia)
True I forgot that the Chinese excuse was that the Vietnamese were stopping the Khmer Rogue insanity in Cambodia.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 15, 2021 8:57:58 GMT
Quite a lot of developments there. A 68% cut in the defence budget is huge, even given the large scale of the military after the Reagan years. It would mean a massive contraction of both their military, as well as a big hit to many companies in weapons production as the US would have to stop virtually all purchases of new equipment let alone new research. Or is that a typo for say 8% or 18% or something like that?
I can't see the Kurdish autonomist state in Iraq lasting long as it has too many enemies, including the Iranians who would be pretty much their sole source of support. Especially after that comment “In addition, we call on all the Kurds of the entire Middle East region to come and join our struggle for an independent Kurdistani state that we are building today.” That's inviting Turkey, Syria and Iran to join in hammering them even more than usual.
A bit surprised that Iran managed a win this late in the game as Iraq was getting so much aid from the Gulf Arabs - Kuwait and Saudi are probably especially concerned at the current situation, with the Basra Independent Administrative Jurisdiction being at the very least under Iranian influence. Mind you Iran must have been at pretty much exhaustion point itself else Khomeini would have insisted on a full conquest of all of it. He was very reluctant to make peace OTL when clearly losing the ability to continue attacks so did someone materially prop up Saddam? With the US and Russia both deeply distracted I'm not sure who would have been both strong enough to make a difference and also be willing to other than possibly Egypt?
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 15, 2021 15:05:21 GMT
Quite a lot of developments there. A 68% cut in the defence budget is huge, even given the large scale of the military after the Reagan years. It would mean a massive contraction of both their military, as well as a big hit to many companies in weapons production as the US would have to stop virtually all purchases of new equipment let alone new research. Or is that a typo for say 8% or 18% or something like that?
I can't see the Kurdish autonomist state in Iraq lasting long as it has too many enemies, including the Iranians who would be pretty much their sole source of support. Especially after that comment “In addition, we call on all the Kurds of the entire Middle East region to come and join our struggle for an independent Kurdistani state that we are building today.” That's inviting Turkey, Syria and Iran to join in hammering them even more than usual.
A bit surprised that Iran managed a win this late in the game as Iraq was getting so much aid from the Gulf Arabs - Kuwait and Saudi are probably especially concerned at the current situation, with the Basra Independent Administrative Jurisdiction being at the very least under Iranian influence. Mind you Iran must have been at pretty much exhaustion point itself else Khomeini would have insisted on a full conquest of all of it. He was very reluctant to make peace OTL when clearly losing the ability to continue attacks so did someone materially prop up Saddam? With the US and Russia both deeply distracted I'm not sure who would have been both strong enough to make a difference and also be willing to other than possibly Egypt?
Steve
I will correct it to a realistic level, but keep in mind that in addition to the reconstruction costs and the R&D for the earthquake resistant building technology, there is also medical costs of tending to injured people, and compensations for the earthquake victims, and given the larger casualties occurred from a massive earthquake like Loma Prieta, the 68% might be possible, though I don’t know the average US defense budget per year. I guess that with Basra being heavily defended ITTL, it might have made more sense to try and at least cut off Iraq from the coastline, even if it did result in the establishment of the Basra IAJ, which may eventually become another flashpoint in the future. Agreed with the whole Kurdish portion, but as we will see in the next update, there might be a Kurdish martyr that they can rally around. Plus the Iranian Kurds were already fighting the Iranian government during the Iran-Iraq War, so that might be a bit tricky. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 15, 2021 17:21:30 GMT
Quite a lot of developments there. A 68% cut in the defence budget is huge, even given the large scale of the military after the Reagan years. It would mean a massive contraction of both their military, as well as a big hit to many companies in weapons production as the US would have to stop virtually all purchases of new equipment let alone new research. Or is that a typo for say 8% or 18% or something like that?
I can't see the Kurdish autonomist state in Iraq lasting long as it has too many enemies, including the Iranians who would be pretty much their sole source of support. Especially after that comment “In addition, we call on all the Kurds of the entire Middle East region to come and join our struggle for an independent Kurdistani state that we are building today.” That's inviting Turkey, Syria and Iran to join in hammering them even more than usual.
A bit surprised that Iran managed a win this late in the game as Iraq was getting so much aid from the Gulf Arabs - Kuwait and Saudi are probably especially concerned at the current situation, with the Basra Independent Administrative Jurisdiction being at the very least under Iranian influence. Mind you Iran must have been at pretty much exhaustion point itself else Khomeini would have insisted on a full conquest of all of it. He was very reluctant to make peace OTL when clearly losing the ability to continue attacks so did someone materially prop up Saddam? With the US and Russia both deeply distracted I'm not sure who would have been both strong enough to make a difference and also be willing to other than possibly Egypt?
Steve
I will correct it to a realistic level, but keep in mind that in addition to the reconstruction costs and the R&D for the earthquake resistant building technology, there is also medical costs of tending to injured people, and compensations for the earthquake victims, and given the larger casualties occurred from a massive earthquake like Loma Prieta, the 68% might be possible, though I don’t know the average US defense budget per year. I guess that with Basra being heavily defended ITTL, it might have made more sense to try and at least cut off Iraq from the coastline, even if it did result in the establishment of the Basra IAJ, which may eventually become another flashpoint in the future. Agreed with the whole Kurdish portion, but as we will see in the next update, there might be a Kurdish martyr that they can rally around. Plus the Iranian Kurds were already fighting the Iranian government during the Iran-Iraq War, so that might be a bit tricky.
My concern is that a 68% cut, well over half, will mean a lot of abilities will probably have to be cut totally. You would probably need to lose at least one leg of the triad, as well as much of the conventional forces. Don't forget that even if all existing contracts were cancelled - which would probably cost a lot in itself - and no new equipment at all were ordered there is still going to be substantial costs for manpower, bases and the like. Not to mention pensions costs for veterans and their families and probably some other non-military costs they can't avoid paying. Maintaining large numbers of land units, let alone things like strategic bombers and large warships, as well as bases and support facilities cost a hell of a lot.
For instance see US military budgets since 1948 which lists the average military budgets for each President since 1948. [Its largely talking about complaints about Obama's spending but does give figures for the period]. After Reagan's average of $565 billion it dropped a bit to $513.4 under the elder Bush and then $418.0 under Clinton before increasing again. Even the lowest annual budget under Clinton, mentioned as "$399 billion FY1998 military budget" means a maximum drop from ~$565B to $400B which is just under a third. That was OTL will good relations with a more moderate China and with a largely compliant Russia under Yeltsin. Here there seems to be more mistrust of Russia and China is belligerently aggressive and we're talking about a Republican President who was still engaging in wars in Central America and the like. [Admit I'm forgetting a lot of the events as getting rather confused as to what's happening in different TLs].
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 15, 2021 18:17:40 GMT
In this case, $9 billion would only be a fracture of the annual defense budget, though I suspect that I may have to revise this to $27 billion for the reconstruction investment. There will be a slight retconning to do in this case, as I did not know about US military expenditures.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 15, 2021 19:29:34 GMT
In this case, $9 billion would only be a fracture of the annual defense budget, though I suspect that I may have to revise this to $27 billion for the reconstruction investment. There will be a slight retconning to do in this case, as I did not know about US military expenditures.
That would definitely be the case. The link I gave mentioned an average military budget in the Bush senior years, i.e. 1990-93 if $513B so if you had a total spend of ~$51B your would need to reduce the defense budget by about 10% IF you didn't get any of the amount from anywhere else in the budget.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 15, 2021 21:16:19 GMT
$51 billion would be a bit more realistic, especially if we’re talking compensating the earthquake victims. We are already seeing a geopolitical change because of the Loma Prieta Earthquake taking place.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 16, 2021 6:12:12 GMT
OK, so I have revised the defense budget percentage from 68% to 18%, due to my lack of understanding on the American defense budget of the OTL Bush Sr. era, so please notify me if there are some areas of the previous update that I have forgotten.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 17, 2021 6:57:04 GMT
Chapter Twenty-Six: The Second Russian Civil War Part One
SECOND SOVIET GENERAL LEADS A MUTINY IN VLADIVOSTOK AGAINST SOVIET GOVERNMENT ORDER TO DISPERSE DEMONSTRATORS WITH LETHAL FORCE, DECLARES ALLEGIANCE TO LEBED-LED REBEL GROUP
Sydney Herald
August 19, 1990Vladivostok, RUSSIAN SFSR – Only two months after Alexander Lebed, a rarely heard of Soviet general known for his prowess during the Soviet War in Afghanistan, another Soviet general had turned against his own government. Unlike the rarely heard of General Lebed, this general was known for triggering the very same war that propelled the de facto leader of the rebel forces that have now taken control of Sverdlovsk. General Leonid Khabarov, the newly appointed commander of the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade that was transferred from the Northern Forces Group in East Germany to their new home in Ussuriysk, Primorsky Krai, had led said Brigade during a demonstration against the Soviet government, in light of the recently revealed information about the tragic fate of former Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, who was accidentally shot by a KGB officer who tried to kill one of his bodyguards back in March 14, 1990. The accidental murder of the now-late Premier Gorbachev, and the coup that was led by his opponent, Oleg Baklanov, had electrified the Soviet Union as more Soviet citizens began to openly oppose the government for the botched murder of their Premier.
“The fact that these monsters have shown their true faces when they tried to take back their power from Comrade Premier Gorbachev, indicates that they have lost legitimacy with the Soviet people!” General Khabarov says as he addresses the demonstrators in front of Vladivostok’s Monument to the Fighters for Soviet Power in the Far East. “Luckily for the ordinary people living in this treasured city, we have national comrades who decided not to ignore this travesty and stand on the side of the people who rightly demanded justice for his death. I salute to you, Comrade General Alexander Lebed, a fellow desyantnik and righteous officer, for your courageous actions! I say now, I will gladly follow your lead, and renounce my loyalty to the so-called Soviet government, and pledge my allegiance to the newly formed Russian Provisional Government under Gennady Burbulis!”
Khabarov’s actions had also served to energize the morale of the Soviet Far Eastern fleet, which had to undergo a significant power struggle as the Soviet loyalists stationed in all naval vessels were summarily arrested and shot by pro-Lebed rebel sympathizers within the fleet, as they began to wear the three black horizontal stripes painted over an orange flag as their armbands, symbolizing the St. George Ribbon that was used as a component for medals earned by Soviet military personnel. In addition, Khabarov’s Vladivostok Mutiny had also resulted in the Soviet Far Eastern Military Command being divided along political lines, with Soviet loyalists emerging from Khabarovsk and Chita, while pro-Lebed rebel sympathizers in other parts of the Soviet Far East had emerged from Blagoveshchensk, Irkutsk, Birobidzhan, and Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. In one notorious incident in Sakhalin Island, a KGB gulag commandant was ambushed by several gulag inmates, with a Vory v Zakone mobster leading the gang who killed the commandant, before additional guards were sent to stop the uprising, only to be ambushed and killed in the same way as the camp commandant. Vyacheslav Ivankov, also called the “Little Japanese”, had led the Sakhalin Gulag Uprising a few days before Khabarov’s Mutiny broke out, resulting in parts of Sakhalin being inundated with escaped gulag inmates, who proceeded to loot the gulag storage rooms for food and weapons, before being met by a representative of the Russian rebel group loyal to Lebed. After being examined by medical staff loyal to the rebels, they were eventually fed, trained, and armed with weapons confiscated from the former gulag administration staff turned prisoners, who were summarily executed by the freed inmates as their rite of passage before officially joining a new military group called the National Redemption Army.
 General Leonid Khabarov leads the rag tag rebel troops during the capture of the border posts in the Soviet Union's only border with neighboring China. His quick thinking had averted a potential Chinese military intervention in the Soviet Far East.
---CHELYABINSK UNDER REBEL ATTACK AS SOVIET LOYALIST FORCES ATTEMPT TO HOLD THE LINE, AMIDST OUTBREAKS OF UPRISING BY REBEL SYMPATHIZERS WITHIN RED ARMY
Vancouver Sun
August 29, 1990
Chelyabinsk, RUSSIAN SFSR – The first major battle during the emerging civil war within the Soviet Union occurred today when the 106th Guards Airborne Division, led by Afghan War veteran Alexander Lebed, had launched an attack on the Soviet city of Chelyabinsk, in the Russian SFSR. Accompanying Lebed’s airborne troops were the 31st Guards Airborne Brigade, the 34th Motor Rifle Division (only after its pro-loyalist officer was overthrown by pro-rebel sympathizers within the junior officer corps) and the 3rd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade, which had also joined General Lebed after careful negotiations by KGB turncoat Lieutenant Colonel Sergei M. Smirnov. In defense of Chelyabinsk is Soviet General Vladimir Glebov, who commands the 21st and 23rd Guards Independent Motor Rifle Brigade, known for its usage of both BMPs and BTRs.
The battle for Chelyabinsk is expected to take weeks to complete, with both the Soviet loyalist forces and that of General Lebed’s National Redemption Army rebel soldiers, though looking initially at the two sides, it seems that the Soviet loyalist forces have the advantage in materiel and personnel. However, the rebels have an advantage in having a talented and motivated officer corps that consisted of several hundred Soviet officers who renounced their loyalty to the Soviet regime and joined the National Redemption Army faction. Moreover, NRA rebels have also managed to break into the Kosvinskiy labor camp, where they proceeded to shoot the KGB camp guards, but spared the junior KGB administration staff on Lt. Col. Smirnov’s recommendation, if they give additional information on other gulags within Sverdlovsk Oblast, as well as to feed and clothe the gulag inmates, who were then set free by the NLA rebel soldiers.
In addition, Chelyabinsk is also surrounded by small towns and villages that have recently witnessed anti-government demonstrations mourning the late Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev, forcing the KGB and OMON personnel to act as riot control, while the Red Army troops stationed in the towns and villages surrounding Chelyabinsk refused to fire on the demonstrators, vividly remembering the Chelyabinsk Massacre, where General Pavel Grachev had ordered his troops to shoot at the same demonstrators who came out on the streets to mourn the former Soviet Premier. The numerous small-scale mutinies were successfully suppressed by the Soviet loyalist forces stationed within Chelyabinsk, but other mutinies succeeded in desertions from Soviet Red Army conscripts, who simply defected to the NLA. More disturbing reports coming out of Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk of descendants of former Soviet prisoners of war who were sent to the gulags under Order No. 270 and Order No. 227, had began to form paramilitary units designed to harass the Soviet loyalist forces in the area.
“Stalin had treated the regular Red Army soldier like a beaten dog during the Great Patriotic War, and when after we were liberated from German PoW camps by our so-called ‘comrades’, we were directly sent to the gulags as punishment for falling into German hands! But today, we rectify the errors committed against our fathers, grandfathers and uncles and we will get our much-needed justice!” says Ivan Pavlovskiy, whose father was captured by the Germans during WWII and was sent to the gulag after he was liberated from a German PoW camp in what is now central Poland. “We stand here as sons and daughters of Red Army soldiers whose only crime was to surrender to the enemy when we could no longer fight, to get the justice our falsely imprisoned veterans deserve!”
The so-called Justice Brigades, a network of paramilitary formations established in Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk Oblasts, were formed with the help of recently demobilized Red Army soldiers who served in Afghanistan. Many of the men who formed these paramilitary units have acted as de facto Non-Commissioned Officers for the new recruits, many of whom were still waiting to start serving their mandatory military service in the Red Army. Although they were not as sufficiently trained as their NCO counterparts, they were motivated enough to fight for their families who were on the receiving end of Soviet tyranny. Although it might not be enough to form a de facto rebel version of the Soviet Union’s Internal Troops, they are enough to cause mayhem behind loyalist lines.
--- “Initially when we were writing the screenplay for Robert’s Rebellion, I did not have any thoughts on how the scenes would be done. However, someone told me that I should study the opening stages of the Second Russian Civil War, especially the battles that it occurred from August of 1990 until April of 1992. The way Alexander Lebed had gotten lucky during his first three battles was something I had to add into how Robert Baratheon won the first three battles in the Stormlands. Unfortunately, I do not see much of Lebed in the future King Robert, but I do see a bit of Ned Stark and Tywin Lannister in the general who eventually played a part in the violent downfall of the Soviet Union. So, in a way, when I envision how the fall of the Targaryen Dynasty would occur, I would picture the fall of the Soviet Union, with the National Redemption Army’s victory over the Soviet loyalists.” Portion of George R.R. Martin’s interview with HBO on the ASOIAF Prequel: Robert’s Rebellion.
--- Excerpts from “The Second Russian Civil War and the Evolution of Modern Warfare”
By: Paul van Riper
Published by Taylor and Francis
Chapter Four: The Evolution of Military Vehicles in a Changing Warfare
I was one of the few lucky US Marine Corps officers who was stationed back in Japan after finishing up with the Loma Prieta Earthquake cleanup effort when the civil war in the former Soviet Union, and the incident in Sakhalin Island had rattled some of the Marine Corps soldiers under my command. I also heard about the mutiny that broke out in Vladivostok and a few months after the Vladivostok Mutiny, the US and Japanese militaries were surprised by the presence of what appeared to be a Soviet Navy vessel, but it was flying a white flag, indicating a parley. I was surprised to hear that Admiral Feliks Kuroyedov was aboard the infamous cruiser Varyag, and it was being accompanied by three submarines and four ASW destroyers as they were approaching Japanese waters, seeking an audience with us and the Japanese military. It was through an interpreter that we learned that Admiral Kuroyedov is leading the now-NLA-aligned Russian Navy (back then, they formed the naval arm of the NLA, called the National Redemption Navy) and that he announced that most or all the former Soviet Far East fleet are fighting under the rebel banner.
However, that is not why I chose to write the segment of this chapter. You see, both sides of the Second Russian Civil War used the same T-72, T-64, and T-80 battle tanks during the conflict. The T-80, from what I heard, had significant problems with its deployment, and numerous casualties from within both sides that employed T-80 battle tanks had problems with gas turbine engines. It was this kind of deficiency, along with its inability to help support in the capture of major cities (both Soviet loyalist and rebel forces alike used anti-tank weapons to take them out), that led to its temporary disuse until they were upgraded with the diesel engine, and a composite armor that was much better than the T-80. I was sent to the former Soviet Union by President Dole to monitor the situation in the former Soviet Far East, along with General James Mattis, to watch the NLA rebel troops perform. To my surprise, they were more motivated to fight despite being poorly trained and insufficiently armed. Sure, there were BMPs and BTRs being captured by rebel troops, but their lack of experience in using it proved to be fatal for the rebel side. I told General Khabarov and General Viktor Chechevatov that with improved training and morale, the rebel side could potentially take the fight to the loyalist, and that I see a potential for the rebel forces to embrace the newly developed military doctrine that Alexander Lebed used in Afghanistan (and to a lesser extent, what I used with the Marines against the Sadinistas in Nicaragua), against the old-fashioned methods that the Soviet Army was using. It was also during the civil war in the former Soviet Union that rebels had began to tinker with the T-80, by replacing its gas turbine engines with diesel ones. One of the improved T-80 tanks became so modified that it soon became a new kind of tank, which they christened it as the T-81. Because of the civil war, many prototype projects that the Russians had hoped to launch were suspended until 2005, when they tested and completed Object 187, which was eventually named the T-99 Kodiak Tank. Another successor, the T-00 Sotnia Tank, was basically a heavily modified version of the T-99 Kodiak Tank, but with two additional machine guns placed on both sides of its turrets, giving it additional protection against anti-tank hunters. The significant feature of both the Kodiak and Sotnia tanks were the additional capacity in terms of crew numbers, as both tanks can fit in four crew members, and that they were assigned special duties. I also noticed how different the designs of the two tanks were from the M1 Abrams that we were using, and especially with the number of mechanics and engineers that are defecting to the rebel side every week, the Soviet loyalists were forced to conscript new graduates from the military academy, as well as students seeking internship with anyone that they would be assigned to work in. The loyalist-aligned engineers were not as enthusiastic about working for them as their counterparts that were enthusiastic about working for the rebels.
 The prototype Object 187, which evolved into the T-99 Kodiak Tank, had been first introduced in 1999, four years after the Second Russian Civil War had ended. Though Object 187 the prototype had some problems, some of the improvements on its predecessor, the T-81 battle tank originated in Ukraine, had been applied to the T-99 Kodiak Tank.Looking back now, the stark difference in how the two sides maintained their military vehicles was evident by how the rebels had to be resourceful in implementing the modifications needed to get their tanks in better shape. In fact, the Second Russian Civil War taught them a lesson in how the tanks had to be produced with quality in mind, though they could also combine the top-notch quality of their tanks with the quantities they made in numbers. By 2000, five years after the Second Russian Civil War had ended, the Russian Armed Forces had in its possession over 2,000 old Soviet military vehicles, and with their economy already stretched to the limit, they decided to dismantle three quarters of their vehicles that have been parked in what they called the tank graveyard, and to use the chassis of those vehicles for newly introduced ones. Ukraine’s tank graveyard consisted mostly of disused T-80s that were later repaired, dismantled, and rebuilt into the T-81. The Kodiak Tank was eventually built, using the Object 187 prototype as a blueprint, though with several modifications from the T-81, while its successor, the Sotnia Tank, was built with the cancelled Black Eagle prototype as a blueprint, though the latter had adopted the opposed piston engine and a 152 mm 2A83 smoothbore gun. However, the chassis from the dismantled T-80 tank would be preserved as a testbed for the future development of the successor to the Tunguska anti-aircraft tank and the Msta self-propelled artillery vehicle.
 The completed T-00M Sotnia Tank was an amalgamation of the following prototype tanks: Object 640, Object 292, and Object 490. To date, the Sotnia Tank is the most advanced of the latest post-Cold War tanks, though after the fall of the Soviet Union, the new Russian government preferred to improve the nation's crumbling infrastructure, health care, economy and welfare of its citizens, meaning that military engineers had to approach the modernization from a fiscally frugal and conservative viewpoint. (OTL Picture of T-90M battle tank)--- REBEL GEORGIAN TROOPS SEIZE CONTROL OF SUKHUMI FROM PRO-SOVIET LOYALIST ABKHAZIAN MILITIA AND LOYALIST GEORGIAN SOLDIERS
The Sun
October 12, 1990Sukhumi, (Breakaway) FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GEORGIA – Approximately 5,400 rebel Georgian troops loyal to former Georgian Soviet Army general Igor Giorgadze have seized control of the tiny port city of Sukhumi from both the pro-Soviet loyalist Georgian soldiers and loyalist Abkhaz paramilitaries, in a surprise raid on the would-be breakaway Abkhaz province. This crucial territory, a part of the former Georgian SSR, witnessed the first pro-Soviet uprising among the Abkhaz population that was successfully put down by rebel Georgian troops before a faction of the Abkhaz population who joined the rebel Georgian troops began to attack the Abkhaz loyalist forces within Sukhumi. Led by Tengiz Kitovani, the rebel Georgian forces had also succeeded in taking control of the neighboring town of Gulripshi, to prevent the loyalist forces from reinforcing the city.
The first rebel victory of the emerging Second Russian Civil War in the Caucasian Theater did however, go to the rebel Georgian forces personally led by Giorgadze himself when he sent an addition 3,900 rebel troops to secure both Tskhinvali, in Georgian-controlled South Ossetia, and Nar, in the Russian-controlled North Ossetia, though the seizure of Nar was done with elements of the National Redemption Army and the newly formed anti-Soviet Justice Brigades. One of the most prominent anti-Soviet factions that joined the rebel side were the newly revived Don and Kuban Cossack paramilitary groups. Formerly known for their skills with the saber and horseback riding, the modern-day Cossacks have instead requisitioned old UAZ-469 off road military trucks and captured BMP-1s and BMP-2s for their military activities. Their role in the opening stages of the Caucasian Theater of the Second Russian Civil War was largely minor, mainly tasked with patrolling roads and villages, and served as reconnaissance teams for both the NLA and the Justice Brigades.
“The Cossacks had a grim reputation the last time they stepped on Georgian soil, but I am proud to say that they have made up for their past sins by helping us throw out the Soviet communist authorities from an independent Georgia,” comments Kitovani during a celebration feast with the Don and Kuban Cossacks at the North Ossetian town of Nar. “Now the real war begins with the liberation of the entire Caucasus region. From Circassia to Azerbaijan, the Caucasus shall be free from the communist regime.”
 Tengiz Kitovani arrives at the outskirts of Tskhinvali alongside his troops as they secure the important Nar-Tskhinvali highway that goes through Roki Tunnel. The control of Roki Tunnel by the rebels have enabled Igor Giorgadze to strangle the Soviet loyalist forces mired in a brutal guerrilla warfare inside the breakaway Federal Republic of Georgia.--- ZAPORIZHIA REVOLTS AGAINST SOVIET REGIME WITH THE REBIRTH OF THE ZAPORIZHIAN COSSACKS AS PARAMILITARY UNIT
Ukrainski Visti*
November 14, 1990
Zalyvne, UKRAINIAN SSR – For the first time since the abolition of the Zaporizhian Sich, the Zaporizhian Cossacks are making a comeback to Ukraine, albeit as paramilitary units. Though the modern day Zaporizhian paramilitaries have known little of their ancestors’ traditions, 300 Kuban Cossacks from the Russian SFSR have arrived in southern Ukraine to help train the new Zaporizhian paramilitaries. Oleh Vitovych was appointed the paramilitary commander of the Zaporizhian paramilitary unit, and they have equipped themselves with captured Soviet weapons and vehicles taken from Ukrainian soldiers of the Red Army who deserted or defected to their side. In addition, the newly formed Ukrainian National Assembly – Ukrainian People’s Self Defense have also been formed in parts of Ukraine that have revolted against the Soviet government, often cooperating with the recently formed Justice Brigades, both within Ukraine and Russia, since they consist of descendants of former Red Army veterans who were sent to the gulags after being liberated from German POW camps by their ‘comrades’ within the Red Army.
“The time for Ukraine to become independent is now!” says Andriy Shkil, during a rally in Ivano-Frankivsk only three days after the Sverdlovsk Mutiny broke out. “We have suffered far too long under the Soviet jackboot and Muscovite imperialism! It is time for Ukraine to break out of the Russian Empire and to become a sovereign state once again!”
However, tensions between those who preferred total independence and those who are interested in a power sharing agreement with Alexander Lebed and the Russian Provisional Government are high, as skirmishes between the two Ukrainian groups are common. At the same time, General Viktor Lazarenko met with various Ukrainian politicians, most notable Leonid Kuchma, Leonid Kravchuk, and Mykola Azarov, in Kyiv, to discuss their potential role during the Second Russian Civil War, and the role of Ukraine in destroying the communist regime. Azarov had also proposed to send the Zaporizhian Cossack paramilitaries to Belarus to help the pro-independence Belarusian rebels to kick out their Soviet communist overlords.
“We could opt for total independence, or we can be the ones to resurrect the glory of Kyivan Rus’ by first uniting with our White Ruthenian neighbors in the north, in a future Union State between Ukraine, and Belarus. Then, we shall position ourselves as the potential saviors of the Muscovite-Novgorodian half of the former Kyivan Rus’,” Azarov says in front of a small group of supporters, just outside Kyiv. “The greatest revenge against the Muscovites would be for us to usurp their authority and make ourselves the real masters of Rus!”
--- UNION STATE OF UKRAINE AND BELARUS FOUNDED IN CHERNOBYL, AZAROV CONFIRMED AS FIRST PRESIDENT, WITH MILINKEVICH AS FIRST PRIME MINISTER
Moscow Times
January 22, 1995
Chernobyl, UKRAINE – To the surprise of no one in the former Soviet Union, the proposal for the creation of a Union State between the Republics of Ukraine and Belarus have been established, with Mykola Azarov as the first President of the Union State, and Alyaksandr Milinkevich as its first Prime Minister. The formation of the Union State of Ukraine and Belarus is notable for taking place after the famous Battle of Chernobyl in the same day as the official foundation of the Union State, albeit two years ago, with little fanfare as Ukrainian and Belarusian nationalists have celebrated the foundation of the new union. To their surprise, the Russian Provisional Government recognized their merger, and in fact, Gennady Burbulis arrived in Chernobyl as a special delegate of the Russian Provisional Government, though officially he is the Acting President.“The establishment of this Union State between our two countries is just a prelude to the restoration of the true glory of ancient Kyivan Rus’ and the political reformation that will soon take place,” Mykola Azarov says in front of delegates who arrived to witness the political merger. “Right now, we are building the foundation for the possible joint Ukrainian-Belarusian merger with Russia, in a new kind of federation that will serve our peoples well.”The terms of the Union State treaty would cover mostly defense, but would also have a common parliament, currency, coat of arms, constitution, and legislature. Moreover, the capital of this Union State would be in Chernobyl, where the declaration was made. In addition, free movement between the citizens of Ukraine and Belarus would be guaranteed, as well as the right of residency and the right to study in each other’s schools. Moreover, the Union State would become the center of a radical currency reform, where the physical and intellectual value of a nation’s labour force would be where the new Union State’s currency, the Hrosh, would be pegged to. Although critics have complained that this would lead to the dissolution of the sovereignty of both Ukraine and Belarus, they agreed in the end that this is preferable to being swallowed by Russia.“Do not forget that we still intend to have friendly relations with the Russian people, but we want to eventually absorb Russia on our terms. We are far more Westernized and modernized than our Russian cousins, so we would like to be the ones to truly modernize Russia along the Western European and North American system,” Alyaksandr Milinkevich said in front of reporters during a briefing in Minsk after arriving from Chernobyl. “It is still a long way from integration with Russia, but we will be the ones initiating the integration, not the Russians. Besides, President Burbulis is also open to the idea of an integration between our states, as he is only an Acting President until he is elected as its first Official President, or until myself or President Azarov becomes President through a referendum.”---
*Ukrainski Visti is TTL's version of Kyiv Post, but founded earlier in 1990.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,836
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Post by stevep on Jan 17, 2021 15:33:01 GMT
Interesting details on events but two points come to mind.
a) I can't remember if you mentioned it before but I can't see the rebels calling themselves the Russian Liberation Army. This was the name of the formation formed under Vlasov that was reluctantly formed by the Nazis during the final stages of WWII. As such it will be tainted by collaboration with the Nazis as well as military failure so I think they would avoid that name like the plague. Its too much of a propaganda gift to the Soviet loyalists.
b) Comments like this
are some way over the top as the combined resources of the Ukraine and Belarus would still be dwarfed by the Great Russia state and would only be likely to put the backs up of the Russians. He might say it privately to small groups to gain support for that union but it would be a big home goal to say it too publicly.
Otherwise looking good and very interesting, Going to be especially important how things develop in eastern Europe and areas like Urkraine and the Baltics as to how much they can avoid the devastation of the war. Which is going to be difficult given how close to Moscow they area compared to the main Russian rebel forces in Siberia and how important the western areas are.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 17, 2021 16:51:22 GMT
True, though the naming of the rebel group might be tricky. Free Russian Army would sound a bit too ethnocentric, and the White Army would also be a propaganda disaster for the rebels as well. They could simply call themselves the Nationalists, but it might be too simple. Council of National Salvation might be confusing, as the initials would already be taken by Tadiar. Maybe the National Salvation Army might be a better option?
Don’t forget that the Baltic could also be another theater of conflict as well, so that might push the Baltic Russian population to come home as well. So technically, the entire former Soviet Union would become a war zone, although I could also throw in the fate of the Soviet nuclear arsenal as well.
EDIT: I finally changed the name from National Liberation Army to the National Redemption Army.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Jan 17, 2021 19:52:28 GMT
Interesting details on events but two points come to mind.
a) I can't remember if you mentioned it before but I can't see the rebels calling themselves the Russian Liberation Army. This was the name of the formation formed under Vlasov that was reluctantly formed by the Nazis during the final stages of WWII. As such it will be tainted by collaboration with the Nazis as well as military failure so I think they would avoid that name like the plague. Its too much of a propaganda gift to the Soviet loyalists.
b) Comments like this
are some way over the top as the combined resources of the Ukraine and Belarus would still be dwarfed by the Great Russia state and would only be likely to put the backs up of the Russians. He might say it privately to small groups to gain support for that union but it would be a big home goal to say it too publicly.
Otherwise looking good and very interesting, Going to be especially important how things develop in eastern Europe and areas like Urkraine and the Baltics as to how much they can avoid the devastation of the war. Which is going to be difficult given how close to Moscow they area compared to the main Russian rebel forces in Siberia and how important the western areas are.
Steve
The whole rhetoric made by Azarov was actually based on this video made by CaspianReport, and it is more like Azarov is positioning himself to become the legal successor to Burbulis through a special referendum, in the same way that OTL Lukashenko would try to position himself as Yeltsin's would-be successor before Putin came along: |
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