A window of opportunity 1905

[575]

1925
As part of strenghtening Danish defences the Navy acquired its own fighter squadron of Gloster Woodcocks ordered the year before. The first aircraft had been delivered from factory but the rest had been built by the Navy Works of Copenhagen. As the first batch had been delivered and taken into training a second batch had been ordered to make up a second squadron. (OTL)
The years since 1923 had seen much debate on the use of aircraft to patrol Danish territory a spin-off of the Northeast Greenland controversy. Government had authorized the new fighters as well as new floatplanes to be built some of the latter would see service in Greenland.
As building and receiving of new aircraft had been much publizized it had made for attention outside Denmark in both Sweden Norway and Germany as well as Finland.
Soon the Norwegian Government too decided to replace its Navy Airforce ageging Sopwith Baby fighters with new aircraft and entered a license agreement with Gloster and cooperation with Copenhagen Navy Works on building the aircraft in Norway.
Norway had received substatial supplies of military equipment from Britain and USA during the last year of WWI to strengthen its defences but much of this was now outdated and needed replacement.(OTL)
As the Norwegian Army Bristol Fighters were also past the end of service life agreement was sought to another joint Norwegian – Danish venture. Stauning intervened with the negotiations insisting on a much enlarged license production of the Hawker aircraft to keep expenses to the minimum – the Norwegians eager to buy Bristol F2s were enrolled with the Stauning scheme mainly to conserve funds and currency but also as a means to get unruly workers working!
As an unexpected result in both countries there would be fusion of Army and Navy Works to facilitate production.

Stauning having enrolled the Norwegians turned his gaze to Sweden and Finland. Swedens Navy had a few WWI vintage Albatros fighters and its Army Airforce had a few homegrown and British fighters but had been looking for a new type for a couple of years.
Finland was on virgin soil more or less with a few Swedish produce donated WWI vintage aircraft and was more than eager to join up as it seemed a cheap and easy way in and it would be able to rely on Danish – Norwegian knowhow and experience.
More or less encircled by its Nordic brothers the Swedish caved in swallowing all pride and went for the Gloster Woodcock too – not in the Danish version but one of their own which eventually didn't differ that far from the Danish named the Dancock.
This fighter procurement progamme was the first real internordic cooperation on defence. The various national Works soon got close building and use experience as well as accident investigations going which in turn fielded an official and much prestitious Nordic Fighter Pilots competition from 1926 which by 1927 had been openened to participation of the Baltic States of Estonia Latvia and Lituania with the occasional participation of the Dutch Belgian Swiss Polish and Czechoslovak airforces as well.

Stauning kept his activist foreign policy via the League of Nations even if the Central American regimes had drifted away when the first trade unions had been established on their soil. Stauning however kept urging the other nations to at least talk to the Soviet Union mainly so Sweden and Finland if only to obtain political intelligence by communications but also to keep an open eye to any changes and remain militarily alert.
The Communists as such was still the nightmare of Staunings; the possiblity of losing his constituency to them.

Internally Stauning would face a new economic crisis as the krone currency soared leading to new unrest among workers for fearing loss of jobs and firms fearing loss of income. (OTL)
True to his scheme trade unions are established for real in the Danish West Indies but the fallout to Central America doesn't happen as the local regimes are afraid of the European Socialism embodied in Trade Unions – Cuba, Nicaragua and Guatemala leave the Oslo Protocol.

[stevep]

   575 ,

   Interesting and sounds like the Nordics are starting their own local version of the Schneider Trophy competition.  Not sure whether they have the technological and economic basis to compete with the great powers but if they overcome their internal rivalries, especially as the world becomes more dangerous in the 1930's it could make for a far more active Nordic region.

  This of course has risks.  If the other Nordics especially Sweden fully support Finland in a Winter War equivalent then it could become either a serious bloodbath for them all or possibly drive at least Sweden as well as Finland into the Axis.  Doubt Stalin would be deterred initially by a Nordic alliance if he had Germany support for Finland being in his sphere of influence, especially as he seemed to be totally oblivious as to what communism and more recently his purges had done to the Soviet military.

 

[575]

May 16, 2021 11:46:23 GMT stevep said:

   575 ,

   Interesting and sounds like the Nordics are starting their own local version of the Schneider Trophy competition.  Not sure whether they have the technological and economic basis to compete with the great powers but if they overcome their internal rivalries, especially as the world becomes more dangerous in the 1930's it could make for a far more active Nordic region.

  This of course has risks.  If the other Nordics especially Sweden fully support Finland in a Winter War equivalent then it could become either a serious bloodbath for them all or possibly drive at least Sweden as well as Finland into the Axis.  Doubt Stalin would be deterred initially by a Nordic alliance if he had Germany support for Finland being in his sphere of influence, especially as he seemed to be totally oblivious as to what communism and more recently his purges had done to the Soviet military.

 

stevep;

There was actually a Nordic air competion or rather at least the Danes participated in the Swedish competion and won at least once - here its just been enlarged somewhat but it will remain local.

Don't know if You overlooked it but SAAB is going major quite early - at least in Scandinavia and the Baltics. Have something more interesting coming up soon.

I haven't decided whats happening to the Winter War but OTL the Swedish Airforce deployed an mixed figther/light bomber wing into north Finland going quite aggressive on the Soviets. So there is plenty room for manouevreing..

Do agree on the last part of Your observations..

[stevep]

May 17, 2021 16:43:51 GMT 575 said:

May 16, 2021 11:46:23 GMT stevep said:

   575 ,

   Interesting and sounds like the Nordics are starting their own local version of the Schneider Trophy competition.  Not sure whether they have the technological and economic basis to compete with the great powers but if they overcome their internal rivalries, especially as the world becomes more dangerous in the 1930's it could make for a far more active Nordic region.

  This of course has risks.  If the other Nordics especially Sweden fully support Finland in a Winter War equivalent then it could become either a serious bloodbath for them all or possibly drive at least Sweden as well as Finland into the Axis.  Doubt Stalin would be deterred initially by a Nordic alliance if he had Germany support for Finland being in his sphere of influence, especially as he seemed to be totally oblivious as to what communism and more recently his purges had done to the Soviet military.

 

stevep;

There was actually a Nordic air competion or rather at least the Danes participated in the Swedish competion and won at least once - here its just been enlarged somewhat but it will remain local.

Don't know if You overlooked it but SAAB is going major quite early - at least in Scandinavia and the Baltics. Have something more interesting coming up soon.

I haven't decided whats happening to the Winter War but OTL the Swedish Airforce deployed an mixed figther/light bomber wing into north Finland going quite aggressive on the Soviets. So there is plenty room for manouevreing..

Do agree on the last part of Your observations..

  Mind you thinking about it, if Sweden is more openly supporting Finland, especially in a winter 39/40 scenario Germany, with its reliance once Swedish products, especially iron ore, isn't going to welcome a Soviet attack that might overrun Sweden - unlikely as that is if the Red Army is the mess it was OTL. 

  Had missed the bit about SAAB, thanks.

[575]

May 17, 2021 17:05:29 GMT stevep said:

May 17, 2021 16:43:51 GMT 575 said:

stevep;

There was actually a Nordic air competion or rather at least the Danes participated in the Swedish competion and won at least once - here its just been enlarged somewhat but it will remain local.

Don't know if You overlooked it but SAAB is going major quite early - at least in Scandinavia and the Baltics. Have something more interesting coming up soon.

I haven't decided whats happening to the Winter War but OTL the Swedish Airforce deployed an mixed figther/light bomber wing into north Finland going quite aggressive on the Soviets. So there is plenty room for manouevreing..

Do agree on the last part of Your observations..

  Mind you thinking about it, if Sweden is more openly supporting Finland, especially in a winter 39/40 scenario Germany, with its reliance once Swedish products, especially iron ore, isn't going to welcome a Soviet attack that might overrun Sweden - unlikely as that is if the Red Army is the mess it was OTL. 

  Had missed the bit about SAAB, thanks.

More Swedish support for Finland would be on my agenda but also a stronger Danish mobilization if/when a Berlin-Moscow Agreement is announced; OTL Denmark did arm the warships and called up limited troops - but with the experience of war 1905 and working neutrality patrol during WWI with a Norwegian contingent in Jutland things might change.

Also the changed mentality of the Nordics regarding the experience of war will be different from OTL - I'm already having Stauning doing his 1934 turnabout!!!

Also more Scandinavian military pilots (fighter ones) may go to Finland making for much stronger Finn airforce. I have something to that end coming up soon - just saying that around 1930 and by 1935 the Scandinavian countries OTL bought new fighter aircraft.

[stevep]

May 17, 2021 17:31:23 GMT 575 said:

May 17, 2021 17:05:29 GMT stevep said:

  Mind you thinking about it, if Sweden is more openly supporting Finland, especially in a winter 39/40 scenario Germany, with its reliance once Swedish products, especially iron ore, isn't going to welcome a Soviet attack that might overrun Sweden - unlikely as that is if the Red Army is the mess it was OTL. 

  Had missed the bit about SAAB, thanks.

More Swedish support for Finland would be on my agenda but also a stronger Danish mobilization if/when a Berlin-Moscow Agreement is announced; OTL Denmark did arm the warships and called up limited troops - but with the experience of war 1905 and working neutrality patrol during WWI with a Norwegian contingent in Jutland things might change.

Also the changed mentality of the Nordics regarding the experience of war will be different from OTL - I'm already having Stauning doing his 1934 turnabout!!!

Also more Scandinavian military pilots (fighter ones) may go to Finland making for much stronger Finn airforce. I have something to that end coming up soon - just saying that around 1930 and by 1935 the Scandinavian countries OTL bought new fighter aircraft.

  TTL they may be better off buying their last round of fighters a bit latter as I think just about everything were fabric biplanes in 35.  Things changed very rapidly so they would be better off buying 2-3 years later and getting much better kit.  Possibly after the Munich Agreement as that could well trigger alarms for the smaller states.  The invasion of the rump Czech republic is even more of a trigger but that's probably too late especially as by then most of the big nations won't have any spare capacity.  Although possibly a deal with Britain or France in say 37-38 when their not fully committed to full scale rearmament could be a win-win as it generates both good a/c for the Nordics using currently spare capacity and means there's more capacity and experience when the selling country decides it needs to go full speed ahead.

  It sounds like its going to be interesting come 1940.  Quite possibly a longer Winter War which is likely to have variable results.  Then if Hitler still decides to go for Denmark & Norway, which he might not do if a strong Nordic bloc means Britain is a bit more restraint in trying to interrupt ore supplies via Narvik.  However think he will still strike north but face tougher resistance.  Can't really see Denmark surviving unfortunately but with a stronger resistance there and in Denmark and a bit more luck you could see Norway being a costly defeat for the Germans.  Of course if the two eastern Nordic nations aid their fellows how exposed does that make them to both Germany and a new bid from Russia?

  Anyway still a long way to that point.  You might even avoid the Nazis gaining power in Germany.

[575]

May 18, 2021 9:16:01 GMT stevep said:

May 17, 2021 17:31:23 GMT 575 said:

More Swedish support for Finland would be on my agenda but also a stronger Danish mobilization if/when a Berlin-Moscow Agreement is announced; OTL Denmark did arm the warships and called up limited troops - but with the experience of war 1905 and working neutrality patrol during WWI with a Norwegian contingent in Jutland things might change.

Also the changed mentality of the Nordics regarding the experience of war will be different from OTL - I'm already having Stauning doing his 1934 turnabout!!!

Also more Scandinavian military pilots (fighter ones) may go to Finland making for much stronger Finn airforce. I have something to that end coming up soon - just saying that around 1930 and by 1935 the Scandinavian countries OTL bought new fighter aircraft.

  TTL they may be better off buying their last round of fighters a bit latter as I think just about everything were fabric biplanes in 35.  Things changed very rapidly so they would be better off buying 2-3 years later and getting much better kit.  Possibly after the Munich Agreement as that could well trigger alarms for the smaller states.  The invasion of the rump Czech republic is even more of a trigger but that's probably too late especially as by then most of the big nations won't have any spare capacity.  Although possibly a deal with Britain or France in say 37-38 when their not fully committed to full scale rearmament could be a win-win as it generates both good a/c for the Nordics using currently spare capacity and means there's more capacity and experience when the selling country decides it needs to go full speed ahead.

  It sounds like its going to be interesting come 1940.  Quite possibly a longer Winter War which is likely to have variable results.  Then if Hitler still decides to go for Denmark & Norway, which he might not do if a strong Nordic bloc means Britain is a bit more restraint in trying to interrupt ore supplies via Narvik.  However think he will still strike north but face tougher resistance.  Can't really see Denmark surviving unfortunately but with a stronger resistance there and in Denmark and a bit more luck you could see Norway being a costly defeat for the Germans.  Of course if the two eastern Nordic nations aid their fellows how exposed does that make them to both Germany and a new bid from Russia?

  Anyway still a long way to that point.  You might even avoid the Nazis gaining power in Germany.

The main problem is that Denmark barely managed to build 12 Fokker D-XXI fighters, were building a few Fokker G-1 fighter/light bomber and building 12 Fairey P4/34 light bombers. Finland got some Fokker D-XXI and managed to retrieve some odds of aircraft from France, Britain, Italy and USA before and during the Winter War, while Sweden got some Heinkel 115 torpedobombers, Ju-86 bombers and Seversky P-35 fighters while the Norwegians had a few Caproni 310 light bombers some Heinkel 115 torpedobombers and P-36 fighters on the assembly line.

With Britain and France rearming by 1936 it is difficult to obtain fighters there and the British are expensive or so the Danes of the day thought then going for the Fokker. The US only have the Hawk 75 by 1938 which is late and the Fokker is a kind of - well if thats whats up for sale! Even if it did good service in the hands of the Dutch.

Then theres the Italians from 1936/7 with monoplane fighters. Both the Germans and the Soviets are out. Well the Germans may be a last resort but not for modern fighters.

Dark horses would be the Czechs and Polish designs.

Its really a question of poker face - right.

Then stomping the Nazis in the cradle more or less - I have at least 5 different options and possibly a lot more might turn up.

A really early on of Hitler running afoul of his niece Geli - 1933 Reichstag fire possible assassination of Hitler by disgruntled communist (no indication but you'd always have the lone wolf) - 1934 War of Dictators as I did on AHcom years ago but in a revised format - 1938 Czechoslovakia goes hot/army coup - 1939 Bürgerbräukeller bomb goes off at the right time.. any other suggestions while I think these through?

Another Winter War with very determined Scandinavian brothers aiding the Finns and keeping everybody out of their waters/air - leading to much heavier mobilization in Scandinavia come the attack on Poland - Quisling may stay at home in Norway - ..

Should the Nazis be stopped before WWII erupting whats Germany going to do without Hitler at the helm? War awerted and everything - sighs of relief in Paris and London!

Any comments appreciated

Cheers 575

[stevep]

May 22, 2021 21:53:37 GMT 575 said:

May 18, 2021 9:16:01 GMT stevep said:

  TTL they may be better off buying their last round of fighters a bit latter as I think just about everything were fabric biplanes in 35.  Things changed very rapidly so they would be better off buying 2-3 years later and getting much better kit.  Possibly after the Munich Agreement as that could well trigger alarms for the smaller states.  The invasion of the rump Czech republic is even more of a trigger but that's probably too late especially as by then most of the big nations won't have any spare capacity.  Although possibly a deal with Britain or France in say 37-38 when their not fully committed to full scale rearmament could be a win-win as it generates both good a/c for the Nordics using currently spare capacity and means there's more capacity and experience when the selling country decides it needs to go full speed ahead.

  It sounds like its going to be interesting come 1940.  Quite possibly a longer Winter War which is likely to have variable results.  Then if Hitler still decides to go for Denmark & Norway, which he might not do if a strong Nordic bloc means Britain is a bit more restraint in trying to interrupt ore supplies via Narvik.  However think he will still strike north but face tougher resistance.  Can't really see Denmark surviving unfortunately but with a stronger resistance there and in Denmark and a bit more luck you could see Norway being a costly defeat for the Germans.  Of course if the two eastern Nordic nations aid their fellows how exposed does that make them to both Germany and a new bid from Russia?

  Anyway still a long way to that point.  You might even avoid the Nazis gaining power in Germany.

The main problem is that Denmark barely managed to build 12 Fokker D-XXI fighters, were building a few Fokker G-1 fighter/light bomber and building 12 Fairey P4/34 light bombers. Finland got some Fokker D-XXI and managed to retrieve some odds of aircraft from France, Britain, Italy and USA before and during the Winter War, while Sweden got some Heinkel 115 torpedobombers, Ju-86 bombers and Seversky P-35 fighters while the Norwegians had a few Caproni 310 light bombers some Heinkel 115 torpedobombers and P-36 fighters on the assembly line.

With Britain and France rearming by 1936 it is difficult to obtain fighters there and the British are expensive or so the Danes of the day thought then going for the Fokker. The US only have the Hawk 75 by 1938 which is late and the Fokker is a kind of - well if thats whats up for sale! Even if it did good service in the hands of the Dutch.

Then theres the Italians from 1936/7 with monoplane fighters. Both the Germans and the Soviets are out. Well the Germans may be a last resort but not for modern fighters.

Dark horses would be the Czechs and Polish designs.

Its really a question of poker face - right.

Then stomping the Nazis in the cradle more or less - I have at least 5 different options and possibly a lot more might turn up.

A really early on of Hitler running afoul of his niece Geli - 1933 Reichstag fire possible assassination of Hitler by disgruntled communist (no indication but you'd always have the lone wolf) - 1934 War of Dictators as I did on AHcom years ago but in a revised format - 1938 Czechoslovakia goes hot/army coup - 1939 Bürgerbräukeller bomb goes off at the right time.. any other suggestions while I think these through?

Another Winter War with very determined Scandinavian brothers aiding the Finns and keeping everybody out of their waters/air - leading to much heavier mobilization in Scandinavia come the attack on Poland - Quisling may stay at home in Norway - ..

Should the Nazis be stopped before WWII erupting whats Germany going to do without Hitler at the helm? War awerted and everything - sighs of relief in Paris and London!

Any comments appreciated

Cheers 575

  Ah if your planning on avoiding/quickly crushing Nazi Germany then there are a hell of a lot of possible butterflies and much depends on how and when.

  An assassination of Hitler before he starts WWII may or may not change too much and could make some things worse.  Once the Nazis are in power a single assassination, of which there were many attempts, would still leave the Nazis in power and probably intent on many of their early conquests at least.  They might not do something as rash as invading Norway, which could have gone pear shaped for them with relatively minor butterflies but they will want the Sudetenland and parts of Poland and to at least reduce the rump Czech and Polish states to puppets.  Plus his death in such a way would make him a martyr and glorify his ideas to at least some degree.

  The only change might be if it was as part of a wider coup, which would mean the army stepping in and removing the Nazis.  Say if it looked like there would be war over the Sudetenland.  This might well remove the Nazis themselves but your now go a military dictatorship and many of the military as well as a lot of the German population supported the idea of 'regaining' lost lands, where German or not.  So you could have a more logical but still militaristic Germany that could build up a bit slower - which they would have to do if they don't want a war very quickly as the economy was a mess - but an even greater threat in the shorter period.

  If Hitler dies before the Depression, when the Nazis are still a minor element there are other right wing groups but they tended to be more rational and its possible that they would be willing to work with the western powers to settle issues peaceably.  However unless you can avoid the Depression going world wide there's going to be challenges for all states and you could end up with another nationalist group in charge.  Avoiding the Depression really needs getting the US to moderate its demands on war debts and not seeking to keep everybody else economic weak, which is going to be difficult to achieve and the best chances for that have already gone.

  Quickly removing Hitler and the Nazis by external force is easily to see but there are still issues.  Possibly Britain is willing to support France over the Rhineland in 36 which could mean either an embarrassing climb down by him or a military coup against him or even a short war as the Germans simply don't have the forces to fight France at this point.  Of course with the latter cause your still going to have a lot of resentment in Germany, even if the allies are simply insisting on restoring the Versailles conditions.  If they demand say a renewal of reparations, which the Germans have stopped paying, or Poland invades from the east things are going to get very nasty given the hatred toward the Poles.

  Similarly a war over Czechoslovakia would be bloodier but more certain and the fact it would be bloodier would lance the revanchist boil at least to some degree.  Which might lead to a more stable situation in Europe.  Although your going to have Germany as still the largest and economically most powerful state in Europe - west of the Soviets anyway - and hence an imbalance in potential power.  Plus this totally changes the political and strategic position in terms of still having fascist Italy and the Spanish civil war as well as it really screws Japan in the east as their not going to be able to isolate China which will continue to get a lot more support.  Plus Stalin in the background who may or may not do something down the line.

  One other option might be as OTL up until winter 1940.  A Nordic bloc successfully gives the Soviets a bloody nose in the Winter War and as a result persuades Hitler not to go into Denmark and Norway.  Say the plane with the plans doesn't land in Belgium and hence the original plan, which was to occupy the Low Countries and the region of NE France goes ahead.  This could be very bloody for the Germans as well as the allies.  Or Hitler insists on attacking in late autumn/early winter 39.  Again this is the frontal assault plan plus the Germans face winter weather and their still recovering from the Polish campaign and unable to implement lessons learnt as much.  That could be a very bloody nose for Germany, which at this point had relatively little reserves material wise.  Also a Nordic bloc might decide, after the invasion of neutral states [Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg] to impose sanctions.  Sweden agreeing to cut off iron exports or possibly Norway deciding now to allow it to pass through their territory, could hurt the Germans economically and morale wise, especially if their taking heavy losses for minimal gains in the fighting.

  Basically there are options, from the current point in the TL to early 1940 to either negate WWII - or at least its European elements - or make it a lot shorter and less destructive.  It depends on what path you decide to take and of course sorting through what consequences result.

 

[575]

Cheers stevep

Thanks for your valuable input.

I really think that if the Nazis are stopped during the lifetime of Fieldmarshal v. Hindenburg there may be a slight chance of reverting to democracy or sort of though it is a narrow windov.
Post Hindenburg a military dictatorship - quite so.
There is lots of possibilities of whats happening if Nazi-Germany is out of the equation in Europe. Mussolinis Italy for one though without a big brother in the North he may have some difficulties doing real harm except to minor neighbours and may always fear French retaliation.
The Soviets is another dark horse though the Army purges may well happen handicapping them for some time.
I thing it is a realistic course for the Nordics to arm up and keep armed and mobilize at the right time - and keep being mobilized ward off aggression by anyone.

I am pondering a number of options but welcome any comment.

575

[stevep]

May 23, 2021 12:46:11 GMT 575 said:

Cheers stevep

Thanks for your valuable input.

I really think that if the Nazis are stopped during the lifetime of Fieldmarshal v. Hindenburg there may be a slight chance of reverting to democracy or sort of though it is a narrow windov.
Post Hindenburg a military dictatorship - quite so.
There is lots of possibilities of whats happening if Nazi-Germany is out of the equation in Europe. Mussolinis Italy for one though without a big brother in the North he may have some difficulties doing real harm except to minor neighbours and may always fear French retaliation.
The Soviets is another dark horse though the Army purges may well happen handicapping them for some time.
I thing it is a realistic course for the Nordics to arm up and keep armed and mobilize at the right time - and keep being mobilized ward off aggression by anyone.

I am pondering a number of options but welcome any comment.

575

  Well one possibility might be that Gustav_Stresemann avoids/survives his fatal stroke in 1929.  While earlier an ardent expansionist and he may not have given up on some of those ideas he did see the need for a more moderate policy and might have accepted offers of economic support from France that his successor but one Bruning refused.  The latter also pandered to extreme nationalistic tendencies and IIRC from Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction was the leader mostly responsible for the start of German rearmament.

  Streseman was only 51 so give him another 5-10 years in influence and help Germany through the early years of the depression and you could see Hitler and the hard right miss their chance.  Still likely to have problems with revanchists but see Europe through the 30's without Germany going rogue so extremely then things would be drastically different.  The key point would probably be having someone like him in charge of Germany when the US is finally willing to accept that war debt repayments as well as reparations need to be stopped.

  Of course with such an early change then there's unlikely to be a Winter War as Stalin is unlikely to risk such an operation when the western powers aren't split by war.  Italy could still cause a problem but he's unlikely to risk much without having Germany's greater economy and stunning military success to ride on the coat-tails of.  Possibly even you could see democracy surviving in Japan.

  Steve

[575]

May 23, 2021 15:10:47 GMT stevep said:

May 23, 2021 12:46:11 GMT 575 said:

Cheers stevep

Thanks for your valuable input.

I really think that if the Nazis are stopped during the lifetime of Fieldmarshal v. Hindenburg there may be a slight chance of reverting to democracy or sort of though it is a narrow windov.
Post Hindenburg a military dictatorship - quite so.
There is lots of possibilities of whats happening if Nazi-Germany is out of the equation in Europe. Mussolinis Italy for one though without a big brother in the North he may have some difficulties doing real harm except to minor neighbours and may always fear French retaliation.
The Soviets is another dark horse though the Army purges may well happen handicapping them for some time.
I thing it is a realistic course for the Nordics to arm up and keep armed and mobilize at the right time - and keep being mobilized ward off aggression by anyone.

I am pondering a number of options but welcome any comment.

575

  Well one possibility might be that Gustav_Stresemann avoids/survives his fatal stroke in 1929.  While earlier an ardent expansionist and he may not have given up on some of those ideas he did see the need for a more moderate policy and might have accepted offers of economic support from France that his successor but one Bruning refused.  The latter also pandered to extreme nationalistic tendencies and IIRC from Adam Tooze's Wages of Destruction was the leader mostly responsible for the start of German rearmament.

  Streseman was only 51 so give him another 5-10 years in influence and help Germany through the early years of the depression and you could see Hitler and the hard right miss their chance.  Still likely to have problems with revanchists but see Europe through the 30's without Germany going rogue so extremely then things would be drastically different.  The key point would probably be having someone like him in charge of Germany when the US is finally willing to accept that war debt repayments as well as reparations need to be stopped.

  Of course with such an early change then there's unlikely to be a Winter War as Stalin is unlikely to risk such an operation when the western powers aren't split by war.  Italy could still cause a problem but he's unlikely to risk much without having Germany's greater economy and stunning military success to ride on the coat-tails of.  Possibly even you could see democracy surviving in Japan.

  Steve

Thanks - Gustav Stresemann was one I thought of but yes he dies too early, and that surprisede me but its the look of peoples younger than me in that day and age - giving him those 5-10 years would definitely be a gamechanger.

[575]

Lets move on before tackling the really difficult issues (still comments much welcome as to tackle those):

1926
Germany is admitted to the League of Nations which prompts Spain and Portugal to leave the LoN.
Sweden as the first Nordic country forms an Airforce of its Army and Navy Aircorps and is soon followed by the other three countries; a natural development of the joint fighter aircraft production since 1925.

On the homefront Stauning face much opposition due to the failure of combating the economic crises and call for elections which see a change in government with Venstre taking seat.
The possible abolition of private property seem to have been the large nail in the previous governments coffin.

Flensburg or rather in Danish Flensborg is rapidly becoming the major city of South Jutland. Since 1920 many Danishspeakers living in south Schleswig had moved there because of the better economic prospects in Denmark but also a lot of Germanspeakers had moved there because of it being the major city in the area.
The often very polarized political climate of the Weimar Republic made ultra-democratic Denmark (at the time) seem very attractive to go to. As a Germanspeaker you could join German clubs/vereins, Your children could attain German schools and often your neighbourhood would be Germanspeaking.
It wasn't just Germany that supplied new citizens for Flensborg also Danes from Sønderjylland(South Jutland) and the rest of Jutland in particular but also from other parts of Denmark would migrate to the city for jobs in the export firms which had very close connections to the German Schleswig-Holstein but also other parts of Germany.
Because of the growth of the city but also the need to link it to the Denmark north of it a new railway had to be built within the narrow borderland of former German Bov Municipality on the coast of the fiord. The German railway built to Denmark had been laid to the west of the city going north in the western part of Marie Forest and then passing through the village Harrislee before entering Denmark at Frøslev. Just to be certain to have control of the railway into the city Danish Government shortly following the referendum 1920 had decided to build the new railway which of course went well with creating jobs in the area.

By 1925 Flensborg had passed the 70,000 mark of inhabitants which be almost 10% of that of the capital Copenhagen and making it the second largest city of Jutland only 6,000 heads behind that of Aarhus.
Politicians and reporters began talking of the Flensborg effect; it was the door to Germany for Denmark but a door needs a lock! Flensborg Barracks would soon house headquarters and a Battalion of 2. Slesvig Infantry Regiment as well as a Navy depot due to the many shipwarfs in the city on the fiord.
The Police also had a major headquarters in the city with the Border section naturally being setup there. Another unit was part of the Aliens divison due to the many German nationals living in the city. Some even assumed the Police Security Service would have an office within the Aliens division.

The days of Copenhagen defences had certainly gone for good and Flensborg having moved into a league of its own not to the liking of all as it seemed to drain Sønderjylland of youth like any major city within an area.
Out west Ribe had attained another important position with Töndern becoming German as an outcome of the 1920 negotiations. Abild just north of the border and Töndern had grown too; not like Flensborg but grown beyond the 500 mark with its new status of major border town situated on Highway 11.
Ribe had reached 5800 due mainly to its becoming a major garrison city with a Battalion of 2. Slesvig Infantry Regiment.

The Army realized it had to do something about the defences of Flensborg the problem being that it were too close to the German border for comfort and effectively having a narrow corridor along the fiord to the rest of Denmark. Even if Denmark might be able to rule the surface of the fiord it was still a problem.
There was the old German Ezercierplatz/trainingground west of the city where the Slesvig Regiment would conduct exercises for any German on the outskirts of the trainingground to see. There wasn't much to be done besides this as only the Marie Forest made for some cover the rest of the land being agriculturally developed and wouldn't at the time being lend itself to fortifications.
However somebody with a keen mind at Army Headquarters did suggest making as many drainchannels and wastewater channels under the seven roads and one railway leading into the city from German territory to make for demolition charges to be placed in case of conflict.
The alternative would be cityfight. Something the Danish and Norwegians Armies had little experience in the Danish dating to 1848. Not much to build upon.

Anyway Government didn't like the prospect of fighting in the second city of Jutland and neigher did the Army realizing it would lose a Regimental Headquarters and most of an Infantry Battalion really for nothing. Government didn't like to abandon the city but realities being realities. The plan drawn up was more or less on to evacuate troops from the city in due time leaving only a skeleton force to the defences. Now this had to be buried in some other volume of plans to escape attention of right and left wing politicians alike – none would like it.

Map of part of Flensburg Municipality - exerzierplats lower left corner - Marie Forest above it to the right. Red/black line the municipality border - Bov Municipality to the north of the city where you see another forest.

[575]

1927
The Vestre government is no better at combatting economic problems that its Socialdemocratic predesessors.

A spin-off of the setting up of separate airforces and the cooperation of these across borders make for the first unofficial General and Naval Staff meetings of the Nordic countries at Copenhagen.
Lectures is held on the Schleswig War of 1864, the ground and naval War of 1905 and the deployment of Free Corps to the Baltic Nations during 1919-20 are subjects as are reports from the Russian Civil War and what have been gleaned from the Soviet – Polish War, WWI and the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5.
The real outcome of the meeting and lectures is that the chiefs-of-staffs get to know each other and all have already realized that either the southern or the eastern threat may risk coming to involve all which necessiate a dissemination of information between the countries.
The days of keeping to a strict west/south area of Norway - Denmark and a east area of Sweden – Finland must be regarded as at an end. The uncertainties due to the unruly years since the Great War and instability in many countries are too important not to take notice of and exchange with the other Nordics.
Another important outcome is the intelligence bureaus of the four nations begin sharing knowledge more broadly than before again piecing together the larger puzzle so as not to miss important clues originating in other parts of Europe.
The main issue of interest to all is the effects of the Rapallo Treaty of 1922 between Weimar Germany and Soviet Union on cooperation – also on military matters. The actual military cooperation had been a shock to several now disillusioned Nordic Communists who had been to the Soviet Union and had made reports to the Finn securityservice which of course had passed the information on to the Military Intelligence which had a natural interest in all that would pass in the Neighbouring Country.
The Finn securityservice had a bright moment in realizing that if the two WWI defeated powers would join in arms the Nordic countries might be in danger in some way.

Dissiminating the information to Government made for many hours of discussion on what to do in the situation. At last King Carl briefed by the Primeminister decided that the information would be given to the other three Nordic Countries.

The British severing of diplomatic relations with the Soviet Union due to subversive activity there make the Nordic primeministers agree that the staff-meeting and intelligence cooperation must continue though under strict secrecy.

Adolph Hitlers half-sister Angela Raubal and her children sisters Angelika “Geli” Raubal and Elfriede Raubal and their older brother Leo Raubal had during 1925 moved to Germany from Austria and Angela had gotten the job as housekeeper of her younger brother Adolph.
Geli was a strong willed girl but Adolph Hitler tried to control her and whoever she would see.
During December Adolph Hitler discovered that Geli had a relationship with his driver Emil Maurice, a founding member of the SS even though he was part jewish, and dismissed Maurice.
Geli Raubal was furious at her uncle Adolph Hitler because of his dismissal of Maurice and went to Hitlers apartment in Prinzregentenplatz 16 in Munich to talk things through following the dismissal. Geli and Hitler had a very vocal argument during which Geli showed Hitler she had found his Walther pistol and now would kill herself because of his actions. Trying to disarm Geli the gun goes off and Hitler was killed.
The Nazi Party would play the death of Hitler down which wasn't too difficult as Hitler had still been in the process of assessing his position within the Nazi Party following his prison time two years earlier during which he had openly told that he had left the Nazi Party to write a book. Following his release from prison in 1925 he had been working to reestablish his leading position.
Given a kind of Heros Funeral by the Nazi Party Angela Raubal and her children was silently whisked away out of Bavaria to their native Austria.

Italy sign a friendship pact with Hungary which by Yugoslavia is seen as a threat to Yugoslavia which indeed by Italy is seen as an obstacle to its aims in the Balkans; primarily as Italy saw its promises for joining the Entente 1915 never fulfilled among these a major part of the Dalmatian coast which the new Yugoslavia had claimed for itself.


Italys war aims in Dalmation WWI of which it was alotted Istria and the first island ajecent to this.

Italy also signed the second pact with Albania since 1926.
Even so Italy had by 1924 signed a frienship treaty with Yugoslavia but had begun courting that countries neigbours in order to wreck the little Entente of Yugoslavia – Czechoslovakia and Romania by signing a treaty with Romania 1926 recognizing the possession by that country of Bessarabia and now would also court Hungary and Bulgaria. Albania was part of the package that Italy wanted for itself. By 1925 the Yugoslavian parliament had rejected a 1925 treaty giving privileges to Italians living in Dalmatia.
Hungary was giving access to the port of Fiume for overseas exports.

[stevep]

   Well that's going to make for an interesting time in Germany and Europe in general. A lot would depend on who becomes the new leader of the party and both their abilities and personal views.  Also whether there is longer term tension between factions over this succession.  It could end up never emerging as a major party in Germany, even if the Depression still rather drives things as OTL.  In which case who replaces it as the leading power in the hard right and do they get any significant traction?  If not Germany could be vastly different.  It might still end up militaristic and revanchist and hence might be even more dangerous or there could be chaos and infighting and even a more powerful communists elements - although it that came close to gaining power I would expect the right wing, aided by the army and probably at least secretly by some of the democratic powers who would welcome any alternative.  [Although if there was a left wing government in Paris at the time things could get tense in such a scenario.]

  Have to see what you come up with.  We are likely to see WWII change drastically, even if it occurs at all.

[575]

May 26, 2021 16:36:46 GMT stevep said:

   Well that's going to make for an interesting time in Germany and Europe in general. A lot would depend on who becomes the new leader of the party and both their abilities and personal views.  Also whether there is longer term tension between factions over this succession.  It could end up never emerging as a major party in Germany, even if the Depression still rather drives things as OTL.  In which case who replaces it as the leading power in the hard right and do they get any significant traction?  If not Germany could be vastly different.  It might still end up militaristic and revanchist and hence might be even more dangerous or there could be chaos and infighting and even a more powerful communists elements - although it that came close to gaining power I would expect the right wing, aided by the army and probably at least secretly by some of the democratic powers who would welcome any alternative.  [Although if there was a left wing government in Paris at the time things could get tense in such a scenario.]

  Have to see what you come up with.  We are likely to see WWII change drastically, even if it occurs at all.

Well I thought that would get You out off the chair!

Germany will still be a militarist oriented state as the Reichswehr did have some stature before Hitler. I don't see the Nazi Party getting its footing following this - Goebbels will be a voice on the fringe rallying a steady core but not really dangerous.

Expect Mussolini to keep the kettle boiling somehow on his own now he doesn't have a German rival. Which will be bad still.

Now I'm really uncertain on WWII but things may well still spill over in Europe. I'll keep working.

I ended up doing something else in doing away with the Nazis early. I already did the 1934 ATL Hitler-Musso war years ago and thought a world with Benny on his own would warrent some attention - with Weimar Germany as the Dark Horse!