Cold War goes hot in 1993 worldbuilding thread.

[griml0ck122]

I've been reading WWIII stories for a while now, and that's got me thinking, why not write my own?
So here we go.

Rather than go down the well trodden path of a 1989 world war, I want to address an idea and a question:
1. 1993 was, according to the US DOD, when NATO and the Warsaw Pact would reach a level of parity again. This is before systems like the B2, F22, typhoon and the Seawolf come online properly, and has given time for Su-27, Akula and Tu-160 to come online in significant numbers
2. The Russian military of today in fiction is often portrayed like that of the Soviets, big, lumbering and full of tanks. But this may not be the case. As of now the Russians have fully embraced Orgakov's ideas of a precision strike complex. What if the Soviets were able to carry out the revolution in military affairs in the 1980s instead of 2010s? or basically what if today's russian army fought an 80s WWIII?


So we are going to need several PODs on both sides of the Iron Curtin to get both sides to a point where they can fight on even terms:
1. The Soviets don't roll back Kosygin's reforms and and carry out their internet project- this has the advantage of a) the soviets having more time before things go economically tits up and b) allowing the soviets to close the gap in terms of electronics, as they adopt computer technology.
2. Gorbachev is killed during his 1988 visit to the US. this breaks any good will on the Soviet side so things get out of hand.
3. Afghanistan is proto-Syria- a testing ground where Soviet usage of UAVs is proved out.
4. The Leipzig massacre, Honecker out in 1986- DDR gotta survive somehow



opinions?

I'll post more timeline stuff and orders of battle later.

I want to use this thread to refine my ideas before I start writing this monster, so if that's not ok, modmins please delete.

[fieldmarshal]

As far as I can tell one of the better ideas for Ogarkov's theories to be embraced in the 1980s would be for Grigory Romanov to somehow prevail over Gorbachev to become General Secretary in the succession struggle after Chernenko. From what (admittedly little) I understand Romanov was sort of Ogarkov's patron in the Politburo -- perhaps under a Romanov administration he is able to ascend to the post of Defense Minister and implement his desired reforms.

Very interested to see how your story pans out!

[James G]

Interesting.
Gorby dying in the US is a good twist. Assassination? Plane crash?

[lordroel]

Mar 9, 2021 17:51:24 GMT James G said:

Interesting.
Assassination? Plane crash?

Why not both.

[griml0ck122]

Thanks for the feedback.
I had in my head Gorbachev coming to power early (1984). This avoids Chernenko, who kicked out Orgakov and gets Gorbachev entrenched in power enough to kick out Honecker without repercussions.
Someone would assassinate Gorbachev on his 1988 visit. Just some nut with a pistol, who gets an opportunity he shouldn't have. This makes it a definitive assassination, there's no conspiracy and no machinations. Though this isn't how it's going to play across the world.

In terms of Western PODs, The only ones I have are equipment related ones. Systems on both sides are gonna see a couple of changes in order to equalise things. I feel that individual systems aren't going to have much of an outcome, so I might as well take some liberties. What will make a difference is doctrine and application of forces. I know that this story may come off like a soviet-wank, but my intention is for rough parity, both equipment and capability wise.

Orders of Battle are going to stay roughly in line with their 1989 ones. I don't see much changing, as there is no need for either side to do any major shunting around. I'll have a couple updated inventories and a few select orbats soon.

[forcon]

Mar 10, 2021 14:49:27 GMT griml0ck122 said:

Thanks for the feedback.
I had in my head Gorbachev coming to power early (1984). This avoids Chernenko, who kicked out Orgakov and gets Gorbachev entrenched in power enough to kick out Honecker without repercussions.
Someone would assassinate Gorbachev on his 1988 visit. Just some nut with a pistol, who gets an opportunity he shouldn't have. This makes it a definitive assassination, there's no conspiracy and no machinations. Though this isn't how it's going to play across the world.

In terms of Western PODs, The only ones I have are equipment related ones. Systems on both sides are gonna see a couple of changes in order to equalise things. I feel that individual systems aren't going to have much of an outcome, so I might as well take some liberties. What will make a difference is doctrine and application of forces. I know that this story may come off like a soviet-wank, but my intention is for rough parity, both equipment and capability wise.

Orders of Battle are going to stay roughly in line with their 1989 ones. I don't see much changing, as there is no need for either side to do any major shunting around. I'll have a couple updated inventories and a few select orbats soon.

This should be interesting.

In terms of ORBATs, I remember hearing about NATO trying to form a NORTHAG airmobile Division with the British 24th Airmobile Brigade, the Belgian Para-Commando Regiment and a German airborne unit IIRC. Also, the US 4th Infantry was scheduled to deactivate one brigade and have it replaced with the 116th Armored Cavalry Brigade as a National Guard round out.

However, if Desert Storm happens ITTL, the US will be looking to scrap the Round out concept ASAP, as it didn't pan out well at all.

[griml0ck122]

Royal Air Force Combat Units, Jan 1993

RAF Germany 

RAF Bruggen
48 Tornado GR1/4, 
operated by 9,14,17,31 Sqd (even split)

Gutersloh
No3 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5
No4 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5

Laarbruch
No2 Sqd, 12 Recce Jaguar
No193 Sqd, 16 Hawk fgr3
No15 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR4
No16 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR1

Wildenrath 
36 Hornet FGR1 (No19,92)
16 Hawk fgr3 (No 195)


RAF UK

Binbrook
24 Tornado F3
No5,11 Sqd

Leucher
24 Tornado F3
No43,111 Sqd

Lossimouth
24 Tornado GR4 (No237,208)
16 Buccaneer S2 (No12)

Marham
48 Tornado GR1/4 (No20,27,35, 16ea)
16 Nighthawk GR1 (No617)

Wattersham
36 Hornet FGR1 (No56,No74)
12 Tornado F3 (No23)

Wittering
16 Harrier (No1)

Coltishall
36 Jaguar GR1/3 (No6,54,41)

Leeming
12 Tornado F3 (No25)


Conigsby 
12 Tornado F3 (No29)

Honnington
16 Tornado GR1 (No13)


Royal Navy Principle Combatants

2 CVA
HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH CVA-01
HMS PRINCE OF WALES CVA-02

2 CVL
HMS INVINCIBLE
HMS ILLUSTRIOUS

13 DDG
1 BRISTOL
12 TYPE 42

34 FFG
6 TYPE 23
14 TYPE 22
6 TYPE 21
8 TYPE 12M

14 SSN 
6 SWIFTURE
8 TRAFALGAR 

12 SSK
6 UPHOLDER
6 OBERON

[James G]

Mar 11, 2021 12:19:30 GMT griml0ck122 said:

Royal Air Force Combat Units, Jan 1993

RAF Germany 

RAF Bruggen
48 Tornado GR1/4, 
operated by 9,14,17,31 Sqd (even split)

Gutersloh
No3 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5
No4 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5

Laarbruch
No2 Sqd, 12 Recce Jaguar
No193 Sqd, 16 Hawk fgr3
No15 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR4
No16 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR1

Wildenrath 
36 Hornet FGR1 (No19,92)
16 Hawk fgr3 (No 195)


RAF UK

Binbrook
24 Tornado F3
No5,11 Sqd

Leucher
24 Tornado F3
No43,111 Sqd

Lossimouth
24 Tornado GR4 (No237,208)
16 Buccaneer S2 (No12)

Marham
48 Tornado GR1/4 (No20,27,35, 16ea)
16 Nighthawk GR1 (No617)

Wattersham
36 Hornet FGR1 (No56,No74)
12 Tornado F3 (No23)

Wittering
16 Harrier (No1)

Coltishall
36 Jaguar GR1/3 (No6,54,41)

Leeming
12 Tornado F3 (No25)


Conigsby 
12 Tornado F3 (No29)

Honnington
16 Tornado GR1 (No13)


Royal Navy Principle Combatants

2 CVA
HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH
HMS PRINCE OF WALES

2 CVL
HMS INVINCIBLE
HMS ILLUSTRIOUS

13 DDG
1 BRISTOL
12 TYPE 42

34 FFG
6 TYPE 23
14 TYPE 22
6 TYPE 21
8 TYPE 12M

14 SSN 
6 SWIFTURE
8 TRAFALGAR 

12 SSK
6 UPHOLDER
6 OBERON

RAF Hornets as in FA-18s?

[forcon]

Mar 11, 2021 12:20:51 GMT James G said:

Mar 11, 2021 12:19:30 GMT griml0ck122 said:

Royal Air Force Combat Units, Jan 1993

RAF Germany 

RAF Bruggen
48 Tornado GR1/4, 
operated by 9,14,17,31 Sqd (even split)

Gutersloh
No3 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5
No4 Sqd, 16 Harrier gr5

Laarbruch
No2 Sqd, 12 Recce Jaguar
No193 Sqd, 16 Hawk fgr3
No15 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR4
No16 Sqd, 12 Tornado GR1

Wildenrath 
36 Hornet FGR1 (No19,92)
16 Hawk fgr3 (No 195)


RAF UK

Binbrook
24 Tornado F3
No5,11 Sqd

Leucher
24 Tornado F3
No43,111 Sqd

Lossimouth
24 Tornado GR4 (No237,208)
16 Buccaneer S2 (No12)

Marham
48 Tornado GR1/4 (No20,27,35, 16ea)
16 Nighthawk GR1 (No617)

Wattersham
36 Hornet FGR1 (No56,No74)
12 Tornado F3 (No23)

Wittering
16 Harrier (No1)

Coltishall
36 Jaguar GR1/3 (No6,54,41)

Leeming
12 Tornado F3 (No25)


Conigsby 
12 Tornado F3 (No29)

Honnington
16 Tornado GR1 (No13)


Royal Navy Principle Combatants

2 CVA
HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH
HMS PRINCE OF WALES

2 CVL
HMS INVINCIBLE
HMS ILLUSTRIOUS

13 DDG
1 BRISTOL
12 TYPE 42

34 FFG
6 TYPE 23
14 TYPE 22
6 TYPE 21
8 TYPE 12M

14 SSN 
6 SWIFTURE
8 TRAFALGAR 

12 SSK
6 UPHOLDER
6 OBERON

RAF Hornets as in FA-18s?

I love the idea of Hornets in the RAF/FAA. They would have made a pretty good choice instead of the Lighting II, or at least to bridge the gap.

If the UK wanted a CVA capability before the F-35, they'd have been pretty much the only option for a fixed wing fighter, unless they wanted to convert the Phantoms to a carrier role and keep them in service indefinitely like the Turks.

[griml0ck122]

Mar 11, 2021 12:53:00 GMT forcon said:

Mar 11, 2021 12:20:51 GMT James G said:

RAF Hornets as in FA-18s?

I love the idea of Hornets in the RAF/FAA. They would have made a pretty good choice instead of the Lighting II, or at least to bridge the gap.

If the UK wanted a CVA capability before the F-35, they'd have been pretty much the only option for a fixed wing fighter, unless they wanted to convert the Phantoms to a carrier role and keep them in service indefinitely like the Turks.

RAF F/A-18s, same spec as US but with UK components
The aborted CVA-01 project came to fruition, with hornets and jaguars flying off them. Im a little on the fence about them though, as it’s a pretty big divergence.

[lordbyron]

Or, just have Gorbachev killed in a plane crash before he takes power that is just an accident, and then Grigory Romanov takes over...

[griml0ck122]

Gorby dies in planecrash has been done too many times. Let's mix things up.

Inventory of the Soviet Air Forces

VVS
Fighter
1100 Mig-29A/S/SM/M
330 Su-27S/P
1500 Mig-23 MLA/MLD
350 Mig-21bis
Attack
800 Su-17M3
800 SU-24/M (not inclusive of recon varients)
1000 Mig-23/27
800 Su-25/T
Bomber Fleet
50 Tu-160
160 Tu-95MS
80 Tu-16
220 Tu-22M
45 Tu-22k

V-PVO
350 Su-15
400 Su-27P
500 Mig-31/M
250 Mig-25
110 Mig-29P
600 Mig-23

In Storage
1000 Mig-23
4000 Mig-21 Bis/SM2
500 Su-17
150 Tu-16
100 Tu-22
300 Su-15
400 Mig-25 (V-PVO)

[575]

Or you could let Andrei Gromyko die early so Romanov is elected instead of Gorbachev but if you're set on killing Gorby..

[fieldmarshal]

I definitely like the idea of Gorby being assassinated on US soil. So much potential for misunderstanding - not only will many Russians believe it's an American conspiracy, but you could have Americans thinking the assassin is part of some scheme by Soviet hardliners to seize power.

[James G]

Mar 16, 2021 9:18:54 GMT fieldmarshal said:

I definitely like the idea of Gorby being assassinated on US soil. So much potential for misunderstanding - not only will many Russians believe it's an American conspiracy, but you could have Americans thinking the assassin is part of some scheme by Soviet hardliners to seize power.

Very much so!