Communist Philippines

[kyuzoaoi]

Post-1946, imagine what would a Communist Philippines look like.

[gillan1220]

There's a propaganda film for that.

Philippines Under Communist Rule (Magsaysay Era Anti-Communist Public Service Ad 1957)

[oscssw]

May 25, 2021 5:08:45 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

Post-1946, imagine what would a Communist Philippines look like.

I guess your talking about a successful Hukbalahap Rebellion?   I knew it as the Huk insurgency.

According to the Filipinos I spent a lot of time with in my miss spent youth, the Huks were a Communist-led peasant uprising in central Luzon.  The Huks were defeated by a US trained and equipped PI Army and promised land reforms under the charismatic Philippine president Ramon Magsaysay.  

The HUK/communists managed to win a single congressional seat in the newly independent PI legislature.

Failing at the ballot box they did what communists always do retreated to the jungle and began their rebellion against their own country. From 46 to 50 the HUKs through a brutal terrorist campaign against the legitimate government, it's small and inadequately trained and equipped army and anyone who support it, made headway.   The Huks suffered a serious setback when government agents raided secret Manila HQ. In a single night entire Huk political leadership was arrested. About the same time POTUS Truman through his support to the legitimate PI government and greatly increased US aid and advisors.

It paid off with major losses to the HUK terrorists.

The election of popular Ramon Magsaysay in 1953 was another low to the Huk terrorists. The combination of a more effective/professional army, US aid to the people, the increased terrorism by the Huks as they became desperate under   Magsaysay swung popular support back to the Manila government. In 1954 Taruc emerged from the jungle to surrender, and the Hukbalahap Rebellion, for all practical purposes, came to an end.

[lordroel]

May 25, 2021 5:08:45 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

Post-1946, imagine what would a Communist Philippines look like.

Soviet armed forces based in the Philippines instead of OTL United States armed forces.

[kyuzoaoi]

I was also thinking about Joma Sison's version, the 1970s kind.

[gillan1220]

May 25, 2021 21:32:36 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

I was also thinking about Joma Sison's version, the 1970s kind.

Another one of his wet dreams I must say.

[kyuzoaoi]

If Joma manages to seize the Philippines, it must have the firepower to do so. Since they don't have the firepower to do so and are also reliant on their legal fronts, I say if the CPP-NPA manage to go to Manila by military force, they would be quickly dispersed. They don't even have foreign support from other communist states by then and were considered as hardline Maoists.

[TheRomanSlayer]

At the very worst, the a communist Philippines would be far worse than OTL Cambodia. If it was Maoist, would China have to spend its meager resources to prop it up? That might create a similar climate to how the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.

[gillan1220]

May 26, 2021 4:51:49 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

If Joma manages to seize the Philippines, it must have the firepower to do so. Since they don't have the firepower to do so and are also reliant on their legal fronts, I say if the CPP-NPA manage to go to Manila by military force, they would be quickly dispersed. They don't even have foreign support from other communist states by then and were considered as hardline Maoists.

There was this ASB scenario in the Alternate History Wiki about Joma pulling off a Tet Offensive in 1986-1987: People's Republic of the Philippines (The Empire of Atlantis)

As usual, the author gave the NPA a free hand when in OTL, the NPA does not even have anti-tank and anti-air weapons. Plus they were (and still are) an undisciplined fighting force that didn't have central command unlike the Viet Cong and the Vietnam People's Army.

[gillan1220]

May 26, 2021 5:01:24 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

At the very worst, the a communist Philippines would be far worse than OTL Cambodia. If it was Maoist, would China have to spend its meager resources to prop it up? That might create a similar climate to how the Soviets invaded Afghanistan.

Well China did supply the Huks and the NPA. See MV Karagatan Incident. Later though, the NPA loathed the PRC after it opened up with the West and embraced capitalism. They saw the Red Dragon as another rising imperialist. The PRC saw them as a waste of resources and an obstacle to Chinese economic interests in the Philippines since the NPA would kidnap Chinese businessmen and torch the properties of the business partners. 

[TheRomanSlayer]

True, but they would not be as good as the Khmer Rouge, and even North Korea wouldn't want to ally with them.

[gillan1220]

May 26, 2021 5:19:49 GMT TheRomanSlayer said:

True, but they would not be as good as the Khmer Rouge, and even North Korea wouldn't want to ally with them.

The author assumes the fact that the NPA has the Navy to conduct island hopping ops. Even if Manila and the rest of Luzon were to fall, the administration would relocate to Cebu since it is the second largest city protected by waters and two military bases. 

One thing to that UP leftists keep on pushing for revolution but fail to realize is that the Filipinos have different dialects and tribo-tribo so unity has a language barrier.

Lastly, ASEAN won't standby at this and the U.S. won't leave the Philippines as presented by this scenario especially under Reagan or Bush 41. Countries like Indonesia and Malaysia would probably intervene. Ironically, the Moros down south would be considered as kinder than living under a communist Philippines.

[James G]

May 25, 2021 16:46:20 GMT lordroel said:

May 25, 2021 5:08:45 GMT kyuzoaoi said:

Post-1946, imagine what would a Communist Philippines look like.

Soviet armed forces based in the Philippines instead of OTL United States armed forces.

Maybe Subic Bay ends up a sort-of Guantanmo Bay?

[lordroel]

May 26, 2021 8:37:17 GMT James G said:

May 25, 2021 16:46:20 GMT lordroel said:

Soviet armed forces based in the Philippines instead of OTL United States armed forces.

Maybe Subic Bay ends up a sort-of Guantanmo Bay?

That could, depending if it is as defendable as GB.

[american2006]

I suppose one way this could happen is minimal or no American involvement in Vietnam, allowing the PRC/USSR to attempt to spread Communism to other Southeast Asian countries, or perhaps they attempt to convert the Philippines to Communism rather then Vietnam.