A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2021

[lordroel]

So in 2002 Dr. Strangelove on AH.com wrote A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002, now 19 years later Binkov's Battlegrounds ask the same question:

YouTube (Is Moroccan military strong enough to stand up to Spain?)



My answer, is no Morocco would still lose a war against Spain. 

[gillan1220]

Aug 11, 2021 15:19:56 GMT lordroel said:

So in 2002 Dr. Strangelove on AH.com wrote A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002, now 19 years later Binkov's Battlegrounds ask the same question:

YouTube (Is Moroccan military strong enough to stand up to Spain?)



My answer, is no Morocco would still lose a war against Spain. 

The Spanish have a stronger military than the Moroccans. But I could see the Moroccans offer significant resistance against amphibious assaults.

[lordroel]

Aug 13, 2021 15:49:57 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 11, 2021 15:19:56 GMT lordroel said:

So in 2002 Dr. Strangelove on AH.com wrote A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002, now 19 years later Binkov's Battlegrounds ask the same question:

YouTube (Is Moroccan military strong enough to stand up to Spain?)



My answer, is no Morocco would still lose a war against Spain. 

The Spanish have a stronger military than the Moroccans. But I could see the Moroccans offer significant resistance against amphibious assaults.

True, the Moroccans do have a better army, navy and air force then what the 2002 TL by Dr. Strangelove had, but still they would not win the war.

Had a troll do some calculations regarding the forces:

Spanish Air Force (Fighters)	Royal Moroccan Air Force (Fighters)
Eurofighter Typhoon: 68	Mirage F1: 26
McDonnell Douglas F-18 Hornet: 72	Northtop F-5: 26
McDonnell Douglas F-18 Hornet: 12 (Conversion Trainer)	F-16 Fighting Falcon: 23
McDonnell Douglas AV-8B Harrier II: 13	Alpha Jet (trainer): 22
Total fighter aircraft: 165	Total fighter aircraft: 97

The Spanish Navy in 2021 consists of the following warships:

1 landing helicopter dock/aircraft carrier (Juan Carlos I)

2 landing platform docks ships (Galicia, Castilla)

5 destroyers (Álvaro de Bazán, Almirante Juan de Borbón, Blas de Lezo, Méndez Núñez, Cristóbal Colón).

2 attack submarines (Galerna and Tramontana).

5 Destroyers (Álvaro de Bazán, Almirante Juan de Borbón, Blas de Lezo ,Méndez Núñez and Cristóbal Colón).

6 frigates (Santa María, Victoria, Numancia, Reina Sofía, Navarra, Canarias).

8 offshore patrol vessels (Meteoro, Rayo, Relámpago, Tornado, Audaz, Furor, Infanta Elena and Infanta Cristina).

7 patrol vessels (Serviola, Centinela, Vigía, Atalaya, Alborán, Arnomendi, Tarifa).

8 coastal patrol vessels (Tagomago, Medas, Tabarca, Toralla, Formentor, Cabo Fradera, and two others).

6 mine counter-measure vessels (Segura, Sella, Tambre, Turia, Duero, Tajo)

2 replenishment/logistic support ships (Patiño, Cantabria).

1 submarine rescue vessel (Neptuno).

1 signals intelligence ship (Alerta).

3 transport ships (Contramaestre Casado, Martín Posadillo, El Camino Español).

The Royal Moroccan Navy in 2021 consists of the following warships:

6 frigates (Mohammed VI, Mohammed V, Hassan II, Tarik Ben Ziyad, Sultan Moulay Ismail and Allal Ben Abdellah).

1 corvettes (Lieutenant-Colonel Errahmani).

4 missile boats (El Khattabi, Commandant Boutouba, Commandant El Harty and Commandant Azouggarh.

18 patrol boats (Bir Anzaran, Raïs Al Mounastiri , Raïs Bargach, Raïs Britel, Raïs Charkaoui, Raïs Maaninou, Raïs Al Mounastiri, El Lahiq,  El Tawfiq, El Hamiss, El Karib, Lieutenant De Vaisseau Rabh,  Errachiq, El Akid,  El Maher, El Majid, El Bachir, Okba and Triki).

4 amphibious and auxiliary vessels (Daoud Ben Aicha,Ahmed Es Sakali,Abou Abdallah El Ayachi and Sidi Ifni).

2 Support ships (Dar Al Beida and Daoud Ben Aicha).

[stevep]

   Are we assuming that the Moroccans have seized either or both of the two enclaves Spain holds and the latter wants them back?  Otherwise its less amphibious ability than being able to maintain reinforcement and supply lines to them while whatever fighting goes on.  Mind you even with a weaker air force and possibly army Morocco has the possibility of simply out-lasting the Spanish will to fight for the territories. 

[lordroel]

Aug 13, 2021 18:32:47 GMT stevep said:

   Are we assuming that the Moroccans have seized either or both of the two enclaves Spain holds and the latter wants them back?  Otherwise its less amphibious ability than being able to maintain reinforcement and supply lines to them while whatever fighting goes on.  Mind you even with a weaker air force and possibly army Morocco has the possibility of simply out-lasting the Spanish will to fight for the territories. 

I was thinking, we now illegal refugees storm the two Spanish enclaves, so i was thinking a Spanish border guard opens fore either on purpose ore mistake, hits a Moroccan police ore army soldier,  Morocco demands that Spain hands over the Spanish border guard in question, Spain of course will refuse, Morocco then announces a blockade of the two enclaves both by land, sea and air, Spain tries to run to blockade, shots are fired and war starts. 

Also you are right, Morocco has a larger army then Spain, but unlike Spain,  Morocco needs to keep troops in the Western Sahara in case Spain, like the 2002 TL i mentioned, does not invade true there.

[kyng]

Well, if we're assuming that Morocco has captured the Spanish exclaves, then I think Spain would win fairly easily .

The video assumes that a 1v1 between Morocco and Spain, with no allies entering on either side. However, in a real-world scenario, Spain is a member of NATO - so, the rest of the bloc would enter the war on their side. Even if NATO wasn't supplying its full strength, I think Morocco would simply be overwhelmed - and they'd have no choice but to hand the exclaves back.

[lordroel]

Aug 14, 2021 18:31:47 GMT kyng said:

Well, if we're assuming that Morocco has captured the Spanish exclaves, then I think Spain would win fairly easily .

The video assumes that a 1v1 between Morocco and Spain, with no allies entering on either side. However, in a real-world scenario, Spain is a member of NATO - so, the rest of the bloc would enter the war on their side. Even if NATO wasn't supplying its full strength, I think Morocco would simply be overwhelmed - and they'd have no choice but to hand the exclaves back.

Do the two enclaves fall under Article 5 as they are located in North Africa.

[La Rouge Beret]

I would give this as a fairly clear win to Spain, as not only will they be able to establish air superiority over the enclaves. Their Navy will also establish sea control, which enables them to land their forces at will on the coastline. All in all this would lead to a fairly exciting and short lived exercise for the Moroccan military, once Spain is mobilised and commits to retaking the enclaves.

[gillan1220]

Aug 14, 2021 18:31:47 GMT kyng said:

Well, if we're assuming that Morocco has captured the Spanish exclaves, then I think Spain would win fairly easily .

The video assumes that a 1v1 between Morocco and Spain, with no allies entering on either side. However, in a real-world scenario, Spain is a member of NATO - so, the rest of the bloc would enter the war on their side. Even if NATO wasn't supplying its full strength, I think Morocco would simply be overwhelmed - and they'd have no choice but to hand the exclaves back.

Aug 14, 2021 18:34:05 GMT lordroel said:

Do the two enclaves fall under Article 5 as they are located in North Africa.

No. Article 5 only covers the country itself. See what happened during the Falklands War when Argentina invaded the Falklands and South Georgia. Article 5 was not invoked.

[lordroel]

Aug 15, 2021 2:24:47 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 14, 2021 18:31:47 GMT kyng said:

Well, if we're assuming that Morocco has captured the Spanish exclaves, then I think Spain would win fairly easily .

The video assumes that a 1v1 between Morocco and Spain, with no allies entering on either side. However, in a real-world scenario, Spain is a member of NATO - so, the rest of the bloc would enter the war on their side. Even if NATO wasn't supplying its full strength, I think Morocco would simply be overwhelmed - and they'd have no choice but to hand the exclaves back.

Aug 14, 2021 18:34:05 GMT lordroel said:

Do the two enclaves fall under Article 5 as they are located in North Africa.

No. Article 5 only covers the country itself. See what happened during the Falklands War when Argentina invaded the Falklands and South Georgia. Article 5 was not invoked.

Thus while NATO might support Spain, it will be mostly a Spanish vs Morocco fight.

[gillan1220]

Aug 15, 2021 2:41:05 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 15, 2021 2:24:47 GMT gillan1220 said:

No. Article 5 only covers the country itself. See what happened during the Falklands War when Argentina invaded the Falklands and South Georgia. Article 5 was not invoked.

Thus while NATO might support Spain, it will be mostly a Spanish vs Morocco fight.

Indeed. Just like how the Falklands was a British affair.

[stevep]

Aug 15, 2021 3:04:03 GMT gillan1220 said:

Aug 15, 2021 2:41:05 GMT lordroel said:

Thus while NATO might support Spain, it will be mostly a Spanish vs Morocco fight.

Indeed. Just like how the Falklands was a British affair.

  Must admit I wasn't sure because I thought that there were territorial boundaries set and didn't think it was just Europe or N America.  However found the detailed text on articles 5 & 6 here and while it includes some areas outside Europe - for instance it refers to French Algeria which of course is now redundant - and island possessed by members north of the Tropic of Cancer so sounds like it wouldn't include the Spanish enclaves.  As you say the Falklands were well south of that boundary so wouldn't apply.

  The only point I would wonder is the above link refers to the article when NATO was founded - hence the reference to Algeria as a part of metropolitan France.  I would wonder if it might have been changed when other countries, specifically Spain joined the alliance if they had 'national territory' outside those boundaries?  Would have expected Spain might have asked for such an extension for the two enclaves but possibly this was rejected as it doesn't seem to mention any modification.

[sandyman]

Article five would kick in the two enclave are considered part of metropolitan Spain the Falklands were an totally different kettle of fish enclave Spanish dependency Falklands yes it’s a play on words but it’s true. This type of action has been war gamed by NATO several times and was very interesting to be involved in one of them.

[stevep]

Aug 22, 2021 13:50:48 GMT sandyman said:

Article five would kick in the two enclave are considered part of metropolitan Spain the Falklands were an totally different kettle of fish enclave Spanish dependency Falklands yes it’s a play on words but it’s true. This type of action has been war gamed by NATO several times and was very interesting to be involved in one of them.

  OK thanks for clarifying on this point.  In that case any such actions by Morocco could open up serious problems for them.

[lordroel]

Aug 23, 2021 14:39:36 GMT stevep said:

Aug 22, 2021 13:50:48 GMT sandyman said:

Article five would kick in the two enclave are considered part of metropolitan Spain the Falklands were an totally different kettle of fish enclave Spanish dependency Falklands yes it’s a play on words but it’s true. This type of action has been war gamed by NATO several times and was very interesting to be involved in one of them.

  OK thanks for clarifying on this point.  In that case any such actions by Morocco could open up serious problems for them.

Also depends if NATO members would want to go to war over what some would consider colonial remains.