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Post by simon darkshade on Jan 12, 2022 0:28:44 GMT
A war into 1919 was very much on the cards and wouldn’t quite be an unprecedentedly bloody one.
I can also see a U.S.-Japanese War. Without an A-J Alliance, which was fairly spent by 1918 and didn’t give Britain too much (Aus and NZ differ), then it does not become another World War. A whole lot of variables need to be addressed for that one.
Returning to the base idea: “What hell have you wrought? Was all our blood in vain? What were you thinking?”
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 12, 2022 0:41:15 GMT
I am not convinced that with a lunatic like Stalin in the offing that one avoids WWII. Ah, yeah. An Allied victory in Russia butterflies the Soviet Union and Stalin's dictatorship with it, I'm guessing. (I am, however, wondering about what becomes of his fellow mustachioed, foreign-born counterpart on the Western Front. He may very well perish ITTL, given the extra year to rack up war deaths.) Having said that, I'd again like to ask what you think ATL reactions would be to actual World War II? While the ATL you outline is interesting and a necessary ingredient here, the ultimate purpose of this scenario is to explore whhat people from an only-WWI world would think, given how the TL they live in dictates their preexisting frame of reference. |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jan 12, 2022 5:57:37 GMT
How about this? I am not sure that the WWI generation in an ATL; would be at all surprised by WWII or its ferocity. From Douglas MacArthur to David Lloyd George to John Meynard Keynes, they predicted it would come and probably be worse than WWI.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 12, 2022 12:13:51 GMT
I am not convinced that with a lunatic like Stalin in the offing that one avoids WWII. Ah, yeah. An Allied victory in Russia butterflies the Soviet Union and Stalin's dictatorship with it, I'm guessing. (I am, however, wondering about what becomes of his fellow mustachioed, foreign-born counterpart on the Western Front. He may very well perish ITTL, given the extra year to rack up war deaths.) Having said that, I'd again like to ask what you think ATL reactions would be to actual World War II? While the ATL you outline is interesting and a necessary ingredient here, the ultimate purpose of this scenario is to explore whhat people from an only-WWI world would think, given how the TL they live in dictates their preexisting frame of reference.
It would depend on the circumstances. If the war goes into 1919 and is as bloody as some are suggesting then there is probably less willpower for supporting the whites at all. Although one butterfly might be that Japan stays on in eastern Siberia which would change a hell of a lot.
More likely to cause a clash would be if Trotsky succeeded Lenin rather than Stalin, although that might be unlikely. He was more like Mao in terms of exporting the revolution and continued revolution mentality. However he's probably going to pay less attention to building up Soviet heavy industry, relying on revolutionary fevour so a Trotsky SU could be more likely to lead to war but more likely to be quickly defeated.
I think, while as miletus12 pointed out many people warned about another war the fact it didn't happen in their TL would probably mean they give the reaction Simon suggested - "How the hell did you allow this to happen!".
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 12, 2022 13:51:39 GMT
How about this? I am not sure that the WWI generation in an ATL; would be at all surprised by WWII or its ferocity. From Douglas MacArthur to David Lloyd George to John Meynard Keynes, they predicted it would come and probably be worse than WWI. That’s interesting to know, but the people you’re referencing were more analytical and politically aware figures who probably understood geopolitics in ways “normal people” did not. In which case, I don’t think they’re the best cross-section of what solid majorities (or pluralities) of ATL people would think. I do, however, suspect they’d scratch their heads wondering how a Second World War started IOTL, but never escalated to that point in theirs? |
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miletus12
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Post by miletus12 on Jan 12, 2022 21:04:07 GMT
In which case, I don’t think they’re the best cross-section of what solid majorities (or pluralities) of ATL people would think. I do, however, suspect they’d scratch their heads wondering how a Second World War started IOTL, but never escalated to that point in theirs? I wonder if the listeners to the fireside chats, might not be as informed there as here? Some people had the gift for making the complex and confused process driven event chains of history, clear as crystal bells to their audiences. FDR was one of them. |
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Zyobot
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Post by Zyobot on Jan 12, 2022 21:16:41 GMT
In which case, I don’t think they’re the best cross-section of what solid majorities (or pluralities) of ATL people would think. I do, however, suspect they’d scratch their heads wondering how a Second World War started IOTL, but never escalated to that point in theirs? I wonder if the listeners to the fireside chats, might not be as informed there as here? Some people had the gift for making the complex and confused process driven event chains of history, clear as crystal bells to their audiences. FDR was one of them. Speaking of which, I wonder what Roosevelt the Younger’s career path looks like here? He was already Secretary of the Navy—both IOTL and IATL—though that also leads me to wonder whether he has a political career ahead of him. Namely, whatever role he has (or lack thereof) in the 1920 election or whether he’s elected to office. (Or, more anti-climactically, if he slinks off into obscurity or does entirely different work than what he’s known for IOTL). |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jan 13, 2022 14:31:32 GMT
I wonder if the listeners to the fireside chats, might not be as informed there as here? Some people had the gift for making the complex and confused process driven event chains of history, clear as crystal bells to their audiences. FDR was one of them. Speaking of which, I wonder what Roosevelt the Younger’s career path looks like here? He was already Secretary of the Navy—both IOTL and IATL—though that also leads me to wonder whether he has a political career ahead of him. Namely, whatever role he has (or lack thereof) in the 1920 election or whether he’s elected to office. (Or, more anti-climactically, if he slinks off into obscurity or does entirely different work than what he’s known for IOTL).
Well two questions come to mind. a) Does he still get crippled by Polio? b) Does the great depression occur? If not he could have less success getting to power as it was his willingness to act outside accepted economic ideology that basically made him the dominant figure of the US in the 1st half of the 20thC.
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