The ISOT thread

[stevep]

Dec 24, 2023 11:48:03 GMT 575 said:

Dec 23, 2023 9:45:39 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

1945 US ISOT to 1917. How much faster does ww1 end?

1917 the Imperial German Navy had 133 Submarines at year start - 63 was sunk during the year making for 147 on strenght at years end. Net increase of 9.

During 1945 the US 10. Navy directed Allied Anti-Submarine Warfare in the Atlantic. 153 German Submarines including boats with Snorkel and Electroboote was sunk during the year, January - May 1945.

Without a Pacific Campaign the US will be able to deploy most of the US Navy in the Atlantic though of course time will delay the movement of the Pacific Fleet still enough assets should be in the Atlantic to ensure sinking of the entire German Submarine capacity within the year making it safe to deploy the US Army into France during Fall? 1917.

If the USAAF limit themselves to destroying the German Navy and Wharfs along the West Front fortifications - this time with bombs penetrating do destroy deep such its a matter of less then a year from ISOT.

If the US goes OTT deploying Strategic Bombing on Imperial Germany destruction of Cities adding to Allied Navy Blockade Germany is asking for surrender even earlier.

Nukes won't be necessary but kept in the inventory - just in case. This will also ensure because of the large number of scientiest that is working on the program that the US tech advantage in the following years will be enormous.

  One factor here is that while the US was taking the lead there were a number of foreign scientists involved, although at US insistence they had all been forced to take either US or UK citizenship.  This means, unless they are detained for a prolonged period in some way there will be some leakage of knowledge, especially to Britain.  Of course it will be a period of time before anyone else can build a bomb, let alone a delivery device for the early heavy and large devices.  Probably at least a decade. 

  I think the war would be over a lot faster than your suggesting.  It will need the necessary infrastructure being set up in Western Europe, such as airfields and oil and other supplies for the USAAF as it was then but it a degree units such as the CBs can provide experience and a demonstration that facilities can be built in much more difficult conditions.  Similarly although possibly somewhat easier with ground units.  Even lighter tanks, which may be the best option would be devastating on the 1917/18 battlefield while the combined arms of a US 1945 formation would be a nightmare for the German army.

  One other issue, provided the allies listen to up-time advice, although their representatives in 1945 US should help here, is the information that the up-timers can supply.  In terms of weapons, doctrine and simply what to do and not to do.

  The big issue might be would 1945 US, with a desire to see the end to fighting and already reluctance for some units in Europe to deploy to the Pacific, would they see Germany in 1917 as their enemy?  Will 1945 US see Imperial Germany as a similar threat to Nazi Germany? 

  A secondary one would be what would the 1945 US's reaction be to the situation in Russia.  The Russian revolution has already occurred and the Provisional government in place but the Bolshevik coup hasn't yet occurred.  There is a good chance that it could be avoided or defeated.

[575]

Dec 24, 2023 18:10:36 GMT stevep said:

Dec 24, 2023 11:48:03 GMT 575 said:

1917 the Imperial German Navy had 133 Submarines at year start - 63 was sunk during the year making for 147 on strenght at years end. Net increase of 9.

During 1945 the US 10. Navy directed Allied Anti-Submarine Warfare in the Atlantic. 153 German Submarines including boats with Snorkel and Electroboote was sunk during the year, January - May 1945.

Without a Pacific Campaign the US will be able to deploy most of the US Navy in the Atlantic though of course time will delay the movement of the Pacific Fleet still enough assets should be in the Atlantic to ensure sinking of the entire German Submarine capacity within the year making it safe to deploy the US Army into France during Fall? 1917.

If the USAAF limit themselves to destroying the German Navy and Wharfs along the West Front fortifications - this time with bombs penetrating do destroy deep such its a matter of less then a year from ISOT.

If the US goes OTT deploying Strategic Bombing on Imperial Germany destruction of Cities adding to Allied Navy Blockade Germany is asking for surrender even earlier.

Nukes won't be necessary but kept in the inventory - just in case. This will also ensure because of the large number of scientiest that is working on the program that the US tech advantage in the following years will be enormous.

  One factor here is that while the US was taking the lead there were a number of foreign scientists involved, although at US insistence they had all been forced to take either US or UK citizenship.  This means, unless they are detained for a prolonged period in some way there will be some leakage of knowledge, especially to Britain.  Of course it will be a period of time before anyone else can build a bomb, let alone a delivery device for the early heavy and large devices.  Probably at least a decade. 

  I think the war would be over a lot faster than your suggesting.  It will need the necessary infrastructure being set up in Western Europe, such as airfields and oil and other supplies for the USAAF as it was then but it a degree units such as the CBs can provide experience and a demonstration that facilities can be built in much more difficult conditions.  Similarly although possibly somewhat easier with ground units.  Even lighter tanks, which may be the best option would be devastating on the 1917/18 battlefield while the combined arms of a US 1945 formation would be a nightmare for the German army.

  One other issue, provided the allies listen to up-time advice, although their representatives in 1945 US should help here, is the information that the up-timers can supply.  In terms of weapons, doctrine and simply what to do and not to do.

  The big issue might be would 1945 US, with a desire to see the end to fighting and already reluctance for some units in Europe to deploy to the Pacific, would they see Germany in 1917 as their enemy?  Will 1945 US see Imperial Germany as a similar threat to Nazi Germany? 

  A secondary one would be what would the 1945 US's reaction be to the situation in Russia.  The Russian revolution has already occurred and the Provisional government in place but the Bolshevik coup hasn't yet occurred.  There is a good chance that it could be avoided or defeated.

I don't expect to be leakage of Nuclear tech to be an issue - the US hold all the relevant scientist's and nobody is going to repeat the undertaking in 1917.

War may be over sooner but I thought of rebuilding the infrastructure which may go fast if the US commit 100%. Didn't want to be too optimistic though I don't see any problem in the US Army moving forward in France with their 1945 units undoing any German defences.

The US will not see Imperial Germany as the foe that Nazi-Germany was but having to do the job a second time!!! Guess some GI's will rather po'd at the prospect. Allied armies will of course benefit a lot from the US.

Russian revolution of February (March) 1917 happened and Kerensky is the present political leader of the Provisional Government. If the US decide to supply the Provisional Government to make it able to feed the population and get out the war without further huge losses I'd see Russia in a more democratic state go on with the Bolsheviks and Mensheviks still marginalized.

[Otto Kretschmer]

1. Norway from 1989 ISOT to March 1940 military-history.fandom.com/wiki/1989_Norwegian_Armed_Forces_Order_of_Battle

2. Stalin's mind from 1952 ISOT to 1925. What does he do differently?

[Otto Kretschmer]

1920 Germany to 1913.

The world now has two Hitlers... great, isn't it?

[Deleted]

mid-January 1980 Iraq (so about the 16th) to 16th December 2003?

[Deleted]

[deleted as i realized what a overused cliche it could be]

[Otto Kretschmer]

Dec 27, 2023 2:27:23 GMT @kapesq said:

mid-January 1980 Iraq (so about the 16th) to 16th December 2003?

Lots of international troops are overwritten. Anyway, the next invasion is even easier than the March 2003 one.

[575]

Dec 27, 2023 2:27:23 GMT @kapesq said:

mid-January 1980 Iraq (so about the 16th) to 16th December 2003?

If it includes Iraqi troops in Iran - well shit hits the fan.

[Otto Kretschmer]

1960 Japan to 1938.

[575]

Dec 27, 2023 21:39:08 GMT Otto Kretschmer said:

1960 Japan to 1938.

No WWII in Pacific and a lot of Ambassadors to go to their home countries to inform of the upcoming War.

As nothing is stipulated I expect the United States Forces Japan come along.

Japanese Self Defence Force initiated formation 1958; 180,000 strength.

US Army Japan: IX Corps/Ryukyu Command, ?

USAF: Okinawa, Kadena Air Base 18 TFW, 12., 44., 67. FB Sqd's (F-100D/F), 15 R Sqd. (RF-101C Voodoo)

USN: 7th Fleet, 1 MC Battalion afloat.

Marine Corps: 3 Div., Okinawa less 1 Regiment, WMFA-542 (F4 Skyray) Atsugi AFB Japan, HMM-362 (HELOs) Futenma, Okinawa. MC Air HQ Atsugi AFB, Japan.

Nukes.

So what to do? Get the Japanese Emperor - still Hirohito - to tell the Kwantung Army and other formations in China and Korea to move out and demobilize in Japan.

Free Korea as one Nation.

Inform the US Government/FDR of events in Pacific Region/China/SEA 1938 - 60 and have it formulate a strategy to prevent Communist China and reconsider aiding Ho Chi-Mihn (alternatives? The US by 1960 have only begun involvement in Vietnam for real, it has a chance to do things differently)

[Otto Kretschmer]

1880 Japan to 150 AD.

As of 1880 Japan already produces it's own breech loaded rifle en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murata_rifle

What was Japan of ca. 1880 like? Was it the same semi fascist state as Japan of 1930s-40s or perhaps without western influence it will develop in at least somewhat different direction after the ISOT?

stevep, 575?

[Deleted]

The political attitudes of the 1965 movie Captain von Trapp (who rips up the Nazi flag in a famous scene) is copied to all Western and Southern continental European (note the specific geography) political and military leaders in our world's February 1938.

[Otto Kretschmer]

1957 India to 1857, start of the Sepay Rebellion.

How do the British react to losing majority of the Raj?

[Otto Kretschmer]

1960 Japan to 1853

[Otto Kretschmer]

The entire Warsaw Pact without the USSR from 1975 ISOT to 1945.