Post by raharris1973 on Aug 30, 2022 2:44:41 GMT
II. Pugnacious Posturing Promoting Political Propositions
I think that is all too possible. At least that is what I'd put my money on in real life.
The US people are still very isolationist and quite frankly the loss of a two bit gunboats the Christian churches have long deplored and a few disreputable US sailors most of the population does not give a damn about
would give the Pols an easy out. Especially if the Japanese paid reparations to the families of the US sailors. We were still in the tghroes a great depression and sand bowl etc.
As you imagine it, how do you see this option differing from what the US did in real life OTL? The US screaming bloody murder louder, sending more ships over to the western Pacific to show the flag, talking tough, but in the end not attacking the Japanese or giving them any deadlines? And not even spending any money to thwart Japan.
By the way, out of the original 6 scenarios (I used roman numerals) I think the OTL response, condemning the attack, but not making any ultimatum, demanding compensation and getting it, holding steady with the China Station naval patrols, but not retaliating against Japan in any other way in terms of economic punishment, aid to Japan's enemies, joint anti-Japanese diplomatic action, or increased military build-up, would rank between scenario 4 (IV) and 5 (V) in severity, so OTL was "4.5".
So the way I envisioned scenario II, to be truly "Pugnacious" meaning aggressive and promoting "political propositions" would be far more hawkish than you seem to envision. It would involve every other measure considered, aid to China, economic sanctions, plus demands for a pullback from China and explicit or implied threats of "or else war" and the only thing making it a lesser option than war is that neither the Americans nor the Japanese end up declaring war, because the two remain at a standstill or the Japanese just backdown in the face of superior US potential.
Scenario 7 (VII) is it's own beast, since it deals with a hypothetical similar incident several years earlier, although the way I imagine it most likely playing out "rhymes" the most with scenario VI the lowest on the severity or highest on the retreat/appeasement scale.