ISOT for WWII Britain

[stevep]

  May have mentioned this idea before but though I would go into some more details.

  On the night of 31st August 1945 many people in the UK are asleep tired but with hope for the future with peace - of a kind in Europe - and signs that the war in the Pacific will soon be over.  Others are still awake, working hard on various projects related to war or peace or other matters.

  At midnight something changes.  Many people suddenly disappear, causing concern and consternation.  All foreign military personal in the UK, including Commonwealth, Imperial and allied forces along with German and Italian POWs suddenly disappear, along with in the case of foreign forces in their own units all their equipment.  However some appear to replace them.  The mainly US bases across the country are not left empty but suddenly filled with British air and ground forces from overseas, along with their equipment.  Medical facilities are filled not only with their previous patients but also thousands of emaciated men who when their own confuse passes explain they were in Japanese prisoner of war or labour camps across the latter's empire.  Off Scapa Flow very confused radio messages are heard as RN forces overseas, including the British Pacific fleet similarly find themselves within a few miles of the prime British fleet base.  Especially confusing for those who were in daylight and tropic waters only seconds before.  Similarly men and women in naval shore facilities around the world find themselves back in British fleet bases.

  An emergency meeting of the cabinet is under way seeking to make sense of what has happened when the French ambassador contacts Mr Attlee to report he has received a strange message from Paris claiming to be from Prime Minister Édouard Daladier asking for an urgent meeting with Prime Minister Chamberlain!  This gives an hint and telegraph messages and listening to foreign radio am amazed cabinet learns that somehow they and their country have found themselves back on 1st September 1939 listening a few hours later to the 1st reports of the German invasion of Poland.

  Britain in 1945 is tired, a lot of its facilities battered by 6 years of war and industry exhausted by hard use in the same period.  Many people both military and civilian were looking forward to peace and the hope of a better life.  Now they face the start of the crisis all over again.  They have a much more powerful military but a lot of that is of limited lifespan as it relies on parts and supplies from the US which even if the latter was willing can not be replaced as the equipment isn't in existence yet.  Defeating Germany should be a relatively short but bloody affair but exactly how do they go about it?  Massive bomber raids against a largely unprepared Ruhr or Berlin may be very effective but would be seek as barbaric by most of the rest of the world without the knowledge of what 'was to come'.  If such attacks prompts a military coup against Hitler what terms would be acceptable to Britain?  Would they insist on unconditional surrender to ensure that Germany can be de-Nazified and disarmed and democracy restored there?  The withdrawal from Poland and Czech territory. 

  How do they respond to Stalin knowing that he's due to attack eastern Poland in a few days?  If they warn him off what happens if he doesn't listen.  What are their plans for the empire of Japan and its brutal invasion of China?  Do they share technical knowledge most especially of nuclear weapons, with current or possibly future allies or keep them a secret?  What plans occur for India in TTL - given that while they know independence is inevitable they don't know how much of a bloody horror its going to be? 

  I am assuming that.

a)  Hitler won't be changed in backing down in his attack on Poland because he won't believe what's happened in the time available.  [Plus arguably this would be bad for everybody as it would leave the Nazis in charge of Germany and its conquests and a continued threat to world peace].

b)  That British forces, air ground and naval in existence overseas on 1-9-39 are still there.  This will mean some duplication of both people and equipment, especially ships but its the easiest way of arranging things without causing chaos across the empire and also to balance the loss of allied forces from the UK.  Similarly the merchant fleet and other civil organisations - other than those in the UK itself and coastal waters, are as 1-9-39.

  Anyway how do people think things will develop and how things go from here.  Plus what other, probably obvious issues have I overlooked?

 

[raharris1973]

Sept 18, 2022 16:40:28 GMT stevep said:

Massive bomber raids against a largely unprepared Ruhr or Berlin may be very effective but would be seek as barbaric by most of the rest of the world without the knowledge of what 'was to come'.

There's two ways the British can handle this, if they care about looking bad at all:

1) Take no immediate action, but once German operations against the Poles start, particularly the bombing of Polish cities, present a 72 hour ultimatum to the Nazis to cease their attacks, and count on the Germans to ignore it. To make the warnings "fairer", drop or pass via neutral parties films of combat camera and newsreel footage showing the aerial devastation of Reich cities. Count on the Nazis to ignore it. Say again, "we are warning you to cease your barbaric attacks within 72 hours, or your barbarism will be repaid, with interest, the responsibility for the hell we will unleash over you will be yours alone" - then proceed to blow away the Ruhr and Berlin with 1945 technology.

2) Try to employ AirPower from the very beginning in a counter-force role against all Luftwaffe targets in range. Take advantage of any extended range capabilities gained between 1939 and 1945 aircraft or refueling techniques, or possibly through use of RAF aircraft carriers, to maximize the in the sky and on the ground destruction of Luftwaffe forces engaged against the Poles and German spearheads or supply points for the Polish campaign, if at all possible. If this isn't enough to turn the tide or cause capitulation or an anti-regime coup, keep pursuing these tactics, or if they become unaffordable, switch to city and civilian centric tactics to keep the pressure on.

Doing either 1) or 2) should really be enough to convince Stalin to keep his horns pulled in and his forces at home.

[stevep]

Sept 19, 2022 2:13:28 GMT raharris1973 said:

Sept 18, 2022 16:40:28 GMT stevep said:

Massive bomber raids against a largely unprepared Ruhr or Berlin may be very effective but would be seek as barbaric by most of the rest of the world without the knowledge of what 'was to come'.

There's two ways the British can handle this, if they care about looking bad at all:

1) Take no immediate action, but once German operations against the Poles start, particularly the bombing of Polish cities, present a 72 hour ultimatum to the Nazis to cease their attacks, and count on the Germans to ignore it. To make the warnings "fairer", drop or pass via neutral parties films of combat camera and newsreel footage showing the aerial devastation of Reich cities. Count on the Nazis to ignore it. Say again, "we are warning you to cease your barbaric attacks within 72 hours, or your barbarism will be repaid, with interest, the responsibility for the hell we will unleash over you will be yours alone" - then proceed to blow away the Ruhr and Berlin with 1945 technology.

2) Try to employ AirPower from the very beginning in a counter-force role against all Luftwaffe targets in range. Take advantage of any extended range capabilities gained between 1939 and 1945 aircraft or refueling techniques, or possibly through use of RAF aircraft carriers, to maximize the in the sky and on the ground destruction of Luftwaffe forces engaged against the Poles and German spearheads or supply points for the Polish campaign, if at all possible. If this isn't enough to turn the tide or cause capitulation or an anti-regime coup, keep pursuing these tactics, or if they become unaffordable, switch to city and civilian centric tactics to keep the pressure on.

Doing either 1) or 2) should really be enough to convince Stalin to keep his horns pulled in and his forces at home.

  Good idea.  I think the 1st would be the best bet because even with longer range of 45 a/c their going to struggle to reach a lot of areas from Britain, especially if not breaching the neutrality of Belgium or the Netherlands.  You would really need to relocate a lot of the fighters and tactical stuff at least to France which would take some time to arrange, especially with the heavier a/c of 45 which would need longer runways and getting spare, support staff and the like in place as well as the a/c.    Ideally if the conflict lasts long enough it would be better moving some of the heavies to France as well as they could more easily be escorted in more accurate day raids and could reach even deeper into the Reich in night attacks.

  Passing to diplomats in neutral countries and also some air drops as you say once such documents are produced.  The size of some of the heavies doing such drops over western cities would also be a matter of concern to those Germans who see them, although there would be more risk of a/c being shot down if in daytime missions.  I would give the 72 hour limit right from the start along with supporting an immediate dow so as to get things into action ASAP.

  One added factor would be including pictures of Soviet troops in Germany and comments about how they occupy much of the country including Berlin after Hitler's attack on Stalin.  That could well motivate a number of figures in Germany.   Also putting additional strain on the Nazi-Soviet pact.

  One possible alternative 1st  target might be some of the coastal cities as their nearer and easier to find in night attacks.  May not get another firestorm over Hamburg but if you did that would really hit German morale.  Additionally you have the chance to take out some of the German navy and related production, although probably less important than in a long war which this is unlikely to be.

  Not sure how effectively Stalin will be deterred from doing nothing.  He will have information from his spies and traitors inside the UK [unfortunately] but how much will he believe them.  Also he might decide that Britain will be too war weary after its previous 6 years and then fighting Germany again to go to war with him.  Alternatively he might decide to still occupy the Baltic states which the western allies haven't given any guarantees for.  However historically he was very cautious so he may do nothing aggressive.  At the same time the destructive power that Britain will display and will be reported by his agents would give him an incentive to at least consider eastern Poland as a buffer zone to increase the distance from British firepower.

  Of course with that information being passed through neutral would also be accompanied by information to them, possibly helped by civilians from those countries who were in 45 Britain about how WWII went.  Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark would find out about their OTL occupation and the suffering inflicted while Romania, Bulgarian and Hungry - along with Italy - are going to find out the costs of aiding the Axis, including for the 1st three of the latter occupation by the Soviets.  While its unlikely such destruction would happen OTL its likely to put the 1st group on guard more and in the 2nd tempter any pro-fascist feelings which such movements likely to be more openly opposed.

  It does also raise the other point of what would be the aim of the allies here?  Forcing the removal of Hitler and withdraw of German forces from Poland and the rump Czech state or unconditional surrender so that Germany can be disarmed and de-Nazified to give a chance of a democratic Germany rather than a continued threat to the peace and stability of Europe?  the latter would be preferred in many ways but is more likely to be resisted far more by a lot of the people in Germany as well as the military.

  Then of course once the war with Germany is concluded there is always the many other issues that will come up.

[simon darkshade]

Steve,

You are right that there will be a certain sense of horror at having to do it again, of having victory after a long, hard and bitter war plucked from them. They have suffered 70,000 civilian deaths, almost all from German brutality.

The RN is boosted well beyond any other 1939 fleet.

a.) The BPF gives four fast KGV class battleships, 6 Illustrious class fleet carriers, 4 CVLs, 2 CVM, 9 CVEs, 11 CL, 35 DD, 14 FF, 18 sloops, 31 submarines and the Fleet Train; the Eastern Fleet gives HMS Queen Elizabeth, 2 CVE, 4 cruisers and 6 destroyers; quite a few ships in the Med, including Sirius,  the Home Fleet has Nelson, Rodney, Renown, Valiant (damaged), Warspite, Malaya (accomodation) and numerous other ships laid up, plus Newcastle, Sheffield, Glasgow, Birmingham, Liverpool, Jamaica, Mauritius, Kenya, Dido, Diadem and others
b.) There are a lot of ships under construction that were cancelled after the end of the war. That might change. They include Vanguard, 4 Audacious, 8 Centaurs and a lot of smaller ships.
c.) The 1939 fleet had Ramillies, Barham, Warspite and Malaya, Glorious, 5 cruisers and 24 destroyers in the Med; Eagle, 12 cruisers and 9 destroyers elsewhere, plus the RAN, RCN and RNZN. A shame that Hood wasn’t out at sea, as having her back would be great; would be interesting if the 1939 under construction ships remained in a strangely melded circumstance, as 5 KGVs, 2 Lions and 6 carriers would be a tad useful as extras.
d.) All of the 1945 ships are better than their foreign 1939 equivalents.

Fleets aside, Jerry is going to cop it. Britain may be physically exhausted, but financially, she is free of WW2 external debt.

[stevep]

Sept 19, 2022 12:36:46 GMT simon darkshade said:

Steve,

You are right that there will be a certain sense of horror at having to do it again, of having victory after a long, hard and bitter war plucked from them. They have suffered 70,000 civilian deaths, almost all from German brutality.

The RN is boosted well beyond any other 1939 fleet.

a.) The BPF gives four fast KGV class battleships, 6 Illustrious class fleet carriers, 4 CVLs, 2 CVM, 9 CVEs, 11 CL, 35 DD, 14 FF, 18 sloops, 31 submarines and the Fleet Train; the Eastern Fleet gives HMS Queen Elizabeth, 2 CVE, 4 cruisers and 6 destroyers; quite a few ships in the Med, including Sirius,  the Home Fleet has Nelson, Rodney, Renown, Valiant (damaged), Warspite, Malaya (accomodation) and numerous other ships laid up, plus Newcastle, Sheffield, Glasgow, Birmingham, Liverpool, Jamaica, Mauritius, Kenya, Dido, Diadem and others
b.) There are a lot of ships under construction that were cancelled after the end of the war. That might change. They include Vanguard, 4 Audacious, 8 Centaurs and a lot of smaller ships.
c.) The 1939 fleet had Ramillies, Barham, Warspite and Malaya, Glorious, 5 cruisers and 24 destroyers in the Med; Eagle, 12 cruisers and 9 destroyers elsewhere, plus the RAN, RCN and RNZN. A shame that Hood wasn’t out at sea, as having her back would be great; would be interesting if the 1939 under construction ships remained in a strangely melded circumstance, as 5 KGVs, 2 Lions and 6 carriers would be a tad useful as extras.
d.) All of the 1945 ships are better than their foreign 1939 equivalents.

Fleets aside, Jerry is going to cop it. Britain may be physically exhausted, but financially, she is free of WW2 external debt.

  Small quibble but did you mean Warspite rather than Valiant as the old lady had that unfortunate experience with the German guided bombs off Italy and is distinctly less than her best.  [Although being Warspite that's potentially still a hell of an amount]. 

  Must admit I hadn't checked in detail as I put things together very much on a whim and hoped that Hood would be in the Med but unfortunately your right.  Definitely vanguard will still be completed here, along with probably a number of ships that weren't OTL.  Some of the older ships will be quite worn out by this stage, especially the old R's but on the other hand we might get fresher copies in terms of those not in Britain at 1-9-39.

  Britain has also suffered a lot of military losses although one aspect of the set-up means that the empire and dominion are unaffected and the smaller 1939 forces are unaffected - other than those who were in 39 Britain and lost with the ISOT.  I did this basically because removing the British forces from across the empire in 39 would cause massive confusion across much of the empire including India where they were heavily integrated into the Indian forces.

  Germany is going to go down, possibly fairly quickly although a lot will depend on the peace conditions but what happens after that could be very interesting.

[miletus12]

This is actually interesting! After the duplicates cancel each other because of the no two same objects can occupy the same place at the same time (Pauli Exclusion Principle); what will be the shake-out from all the event results er explosions?

[simon darkshade]

Actually, the balance gets better:


www.naval-history.net/xDKWW2-3908-01RNships.htm

31/8/1939:

"Home Fleet - departed Scapa Flow at 1800 with battleships NELSON, RODNEY, ROYAL OAK, ROYAL SOVEREIGN, aircraft carrier ARK ROYAL, light cruisers CALYPSO, CALEDON, DIOMEDE, DRAGON of the 7th Cruiser Squadron, EFFINGHAM, CARDIFF, DUNEDIN, EMERALD of the 12th Cruiser Squadron, AURORA, BELFAST, SHEFFIELD of the 18th Cruiser Squadron, and destroyers FAULKNOR, FAME, FEARLESS, FIREDRAKE, FORESTER, FORTUNE, FOXHOUND, FURY of the 8th Destroyer Flotilla. The Fleet deployed in the North Sea between the Orkneys and Norway.

Battlecruisers HOOD, REPULSE and Tribal-class destroyers SOMALI, ASHANTI, BEDOUIN, ESKIMO, MASHONA, MATABELE, PUNJABI, TARTAR of the 6th Destroyer Flotilla departed Scapa Flow for patrol off the Skagerrak. BEDOUIN had mechanical defects and returned to Scapa Flow for repairs. Home Fleet returned to Scapa Flow on 6 September.

British Home waters - light cruiser EDINBURGH departed Glasgow after docking and arrived at Scapa Flow on 1 September."

So that increases the available force for the Home Fleet to 4 KGVs, 4 Nelsons, Hood, Repulse, Renown, QE, Warspite, Malaya, Barham, Ramilies, Royal Oak and Royal Sovereign, whilst the 1945 Warspite, Revenge (disarmed), Resolution (disarmed), Valiant and Malaya are in various states of damage. What it amounts to is only missing HMS Prince of Wales, from one way of thinking.

Given that this is literally ASB, I don't think that we need to be bound too tightly to the quantum mechanics of our universe; something bigger and weirder is going on.

The main weapon against Germany that is relatively ready to go is Bomber Command. There is less of the compunction of 1939, so they will go to Berlin and the Ruhr from the outset.

- Whilst the rest of the world is stumbling about with 1939 tanks, the British have the Centurion in production and, with the need, can ramp that up
- They have jets in good numbers, plus advanced aircraft projects across the board
- 1939 Britain had a GDP of $300 billion 1990 US, whereas 1945 has one of $347 billion. The postwar recession would be temporarily halted due to increased war spending
- They have knowledge of the atom bomb and roughly how it was to be made. They know which Nazi rocket scientists to go for. They know which Middle Eastern leaders turned coat during @ WW2. They know who backed the Japanese from among the ranks of the Indian independence movement.
- The Merchant Navy is diminished slightly in overall numbers, but has some more modern ships and decent designs building
- The prewar national debt was £8,163,000,000 - a large sum for the prewar world. Net Public Debt 1945 was £21,360 million, a large part of which was owed overseas. This was the real killer for a lot of starry eyed postwar plans, ranging from housing to the welfare state 'New Jerusalem' to being able to afford a defence budget for a robust military. The overseas debts are now gone, with only whatever domestic bonds et al necessarily payable
- British assets in South America and the USA are back, after being hocked off during the Lend Lease discussions and implementation
- Without the desperation of 1940, I can't see the big secrets of the Tizard Mission being given to the Americans freely. Many of the technical advances will therefore earn good hard cash

Whatever wars happen with Germany, Italy and Japan will be short, decisive and victorious. There won't be the economic damage to the wider world, which helps the reestablishment and advantages of British trade in the new 1940s, nor the tremendous losses of civilian life. There will be no Holocaust this time around.

The winding down of Empire will be greatly slowed without the dual necessities of being broke and being kicked into a distant third place behind two decidedly anti-imperialist superpowers. The moral damage of the loss of Singapore etc has disappeared in the ISOT.

[raharris1973]

Since the consensus here is that British AirPower cannot be applied directly to the Polish battlefield, and cannot be based or logistically supported from Polish or even continental airbases, but can mainly indirectly help by visiting mass destruction and terror on northwestern Germany and diverting Germany's fighter forces, I do have a suggested course of action for the Allied powers to take with their 'downtime' Dominion and colonial forces.

Air Force diversion and terror bombing may work to cause a coup, deter Soviet participation, or slow the Polish conquest down for lack of air support, but in case not, the British and French should direct their downtime colonial garrisons serving in the Middle East to begin to begin a deployment up to the Black Sea and Romania, secure Romania's participation in the war, and ensure the Polish forces maintain a clear line of retreat to southeastern Poland and the Romanian beach-head, from where they can be, over the medium-term, resupplied, and reinforced, with Romanian, British and French Colonial forces, and eventually Indian and Dominion forces, and Central European territory wouldn't be left solely at the mercy of locally strong Nazi and Soviet forces.

Romania was a pre-war ally of Poland, and with the demo of kick-ass British AirPower and news from the future, should be willing to participate on the British-Polish-French side from early on.

[miletus12]

Sept 20, 2022 11:22:22 GMT raharris1973 said:

Since the consensus here is that British AirPower cannot be applied directly to the Polish battlefield, and cannot be based or logistically supported from Polish or even continental airbases, but can mainly indirectly help by visiting mass destruction and terror on northwestern Germany and diverting Germany's fighter forces, I do have a suggested course of action for the Allied powers to take with their 'downtime' Dominion and colonial forces.

Let's talk some supply chain issues in the ISOT.

1. The RAF will not have access to American high-octane gasoline. This robs a British engine of about 15% of its listed wartime kWatts. 
2. The RAF will not have access to American high explosives. That means about less than 2/3 of the bomb filler the RAF used in their bombs and NO incendiaries. 
3. The RAF will not have access to either rationalized RR made with American machine tools Merlin engines or American PACKARD made Merlin engines, about 200,000 of them.

Sept 20, 2022 11:22:22 GMT raharris1973 said:

Air Force diversion and terror bombing may work to cause a coup, deter Soviet participation, or slow the Polish conquest down for lack of air support, but in case not, the British and French should direct their downtime colonial garrisons serving in the Middle East to begin to begin a deployment up to the Black Sea and Romania, secure Romania's participation in the war, and ensure the Polish forces maintain a clear line of retreat to southeastern Poland and the Romanian beach-head, from where they can be, over the medium-term, resupplied, and reinforced, with Romanian, British and French Colonial forces, and eventually Indian and Dominion forces, and Central European territory wouldn't be left solely at the mercy of locally strong Nazi and Soviet forces.

Let us talk about RAF leadership and the tactical and operational art environment.

Dowding and Portal are present. One (Dowding) is a genius, the other is incompetent. Then there is Harris. He is the RAF bomber baron and a fairly good one, if a bit mono-maniacal. In this mash-up; who calls the RAF overall shots? RAF personalities and politics crippled RAF effectiveness far more in WWII than the popular histories suggest.

No Kannhuber defense yet. No German IADS network. Should be an easy nighttime ingress and egress environment over western Germany. The Ruhr targets are not as important as Saxony and Silesia, as to crippling German war production. The Lancaster is not very good at reaching Saxony and northwestern Czechoslovakia and southern Prussia. Range limits there are with this fine bomber. No Liberators yet. 

See Map.



Those people in the way of a Polish beachhead to the south near Rumania are called Hungarians. They do not like the Polish government.

Sept 20, 2022 11:22:22 GMT raharris1973 said:

Romania was a pre-war ally of Poland, and with the demo of kick-ass British AirPower.
and news from the future, should be willing to participate on the British-Polish-French side from early on.

That depends on the factors I mentioned.

[stevep]

Sept 19, 2022 17:59:48 GMT miletus12 said:

This is actually interesting! After the duplicates cancel each other because of the no two same objects can occupy the same place at the same time (Pauli Exclusion Principle); what will be the shake-out from all the event results er explosions?

  That is a scientific assumption but it doesn't count with supernatural intervention.  Your never suggested this before in any ISOT thread posted here before.  I wonder why?

[simon darkshade]

Logistics don’t work that way. You can’t just direct forces (that barely dang well exist) to up and deploy through multiple neutrals to Romania, which lacks the supply dumps, infrastructure and capacity to support a significant expeditionary force. It is a HoI or Civilization level computer game move. It is nonsensical, particularly given that the forces involved were quite small and, in the British case, positioned to counter the Eyties.

It is creative, I’ll grant you that, but it doesn’t play to Britain’s biggest strength - advanced airpower and seapower. The new BAOR will take time to get back to the Continent, so the first blows need to fall from the air and sea.

Rather, the heavies can smash anywhere in Germany, the Mossies can similarly hit most locations and the tactical fighters and fighter-bombers can redeploy to France, where a lot of them don’t need heavy airfields.

www.alternatewars.com/BBOW/Stats/RAF_USAAF_AC_Available.htm

That is a force, along with 1/2/3 TAF, that can smack German transport links for six or give them 5 Hamburgs in as many days, depending on what is preferred.

[simon darkshade]

Dowding? What the dickens? He retired in 1942. This is an ISOT from 1945, so he is an irrelevant factor. Indeed, your paragraph on RAF leadership is irrelevant, as we aren’t talking about early war RAF leadership, but who comes back as of September 1945. Focus on the question and topic, not taking the opportunity to get on hobby horses, however accurate or not they may be.

You are spot on about the technical issues, in theory, and geography, but depending on the ISOT circumstances, there might not be an exclusion of the American made goods on hand as of the time. They won’t have them as an ongoing supply, but they won’t need enough for a medium term or long term war, but rather a dang short one.

[stevep]

Sept 20, 2022 3:16:12 GMT simon darkshade said:

Actually, the balance gets better:


www.naval-history.net/xDKWW2-3908-01RNships.htm

31/8/1939:

"Home Fleet - departed Scapa Flow at 1800 with battleships NELSON, RODNEY, ROYAL OAK, ROYAL SOVEREIGN, aircraft carrier ARK ROYAL, light cruisers CALYPSO, CALEDON, DIOMEDE, DRAGON of the 7th Cruiser Squadron, EFFINGHAM, CARDIFF, DUNEDIN, EMERALD of the 12th Cruiser Squadron, AURORA, BELFAST, SHEFFIELD of the 18th Cruiser Squadron, and destroyers FAULKNOR, FAME, FEARLESS, FIREDRAKE, FORESTER, FORTUNE, FOXHOUND, FURY of the 8th Destroyer Flotilla. The Fleet deployed in the North Sea between the Orkneys and Norway.

Battlecruisers HOOD, REPULSE and Tribal-class destroyers SOMALI, ASHANTI, BEDOUIN, ESKIMO, MASHONA, MATABELE, PUNJABI, TARTAR of the 6th Destroyer Flotilla departed Scapa Flow for patrol off the Skagerrak. BEDOUIN had mechanical defects and returned to Scapa Flow for repairs. Home Fleet returned to Scapa Flow on 6 September.

British Home waters - light cruiser EDINBURGH departed Glasgow after docking and arrived at Scapa Flow on 1 September."

So that increases the available force for the Home Fleet to 4 KGVs, 4 Nelsons, Hood, Repulse, Renown, QE, Warspite, Malaya, Barham, Ramilies, Royal Oak and Royal Sovereign, whilst the 1945 Warspite, Revenge (disarmed), Resolution (disarmed), Valiant and Malaya are in various states of damage. What it amounts to is only missing HMS Prince of Wales, from one way of thinking.

Given that this is literally ASB, I don't think that we need to be bound too tightly to the quantum mechanics of our universe; something bigger and weirder is going on.

The main weapon against Germany that is relatively ready to go is Bomber Command. There is less of the compunction of 1939, so they will go to Berlin and the Ruhr from the outset.

- Whilst the rest of the world is stumbling about with 1939 tanks, the British have the Centurion in production and, with the need, can ramp that up
- They have jets in good numbers, plus advanced aircraft projects across the board
- 1939 Britain had a GDP of $300 billion 1990 US, whereas 1945 has one of $347 billion. The postwar recession would be temporarily halted due to increased war spending
- They have knowledge of the atom bomb and roughly how it was to be made. They know which Nazi rocket scientists to go for. They know which Middle Eastern leaders turned coat during @ WW2. They know who backed the Japanese from among the ranks of the Indian independence movement.
- The Merchant Navy is diminished slightly in overall numbers, but has some more modern ships and decent designs building
- The prewar national debt was £8,163,000,000 - a large sum for the prewar world. Net Public Debt 1945 was £21,360 million, a large part of which was owed overseas. This was the real killer for a lot of starry eyed postwar plans, ranging from housing to the welfare state 'New Jerusalem' to being able to afford a defence budget for a robust military. The overseas debts are now gone, with only whatever domestic bonds et al necessarily payable
- British assets in South America and the USA are back, after being hocked off during the Lend Lease discussions and implementation
- Without the desperation of 1940, I can't see the big secrets of the Tizard Mission being given to the Americans freely. Many of the technical advances will therefore earn good hard cash

Whatever wars happen with Germany, Italy and Japan will be short, decisive and victorious. There won't be the economic damage to the wider world, which helps the reestablishment and advantages of British trade in the new 1940s, nor the tremendous losses of civilian life. There will be no Holocaust this time around.

The winding down of Empire will be greatly slowed without the dual necessities of being broke and being kicked into a distant third place behind two decidedly anti-imperialist superpowers. The moral damage of the loss of Singapore etc has disappeared in the ISOT.

  I did notice while looking at the Hood wiki entry yesterday for another matter that it was away on 1-9-39 but that is a hell of a lot of other ships. 

  Agree that the main weapon for immediate deployment would be BC which for all its many faults is a well experienced weapon in 45.  It will do a great deal of damage both materially and in shock while OTL the autumn/winter of 39/40 was a bad time for Germany due to the Nazis neglect of their railway system.  Here its likely to be much worse.

  Britain's technological and economic position is a lot better now although it could have issues claiming some of those US based assets if Washington plays hard ball as it tended to do.  Also some of the reliance built up during the war will be a problem.

  The bomb will be a priority and doubly so given that unfortunately the Soviet spies will enable Stalin to get a bomb, probably earlier than OTL.  Whether Attlee decides to work with the French or Americans I don't know.  [He doesn't know about the US back-stab on nuclear development as IIRC it hasn't occurred yet.]

  War against Germany will be relatively short and decisive.  Japan could be a bigger problem because of the distances but a lot could be done indirectly with aid to China and attacks on their trade and supply lines if a major war occurs there.  [Think its likely but the possibility of a multi-national embargo might just force a withdrawal from China without it - although that would require quite an extensive purge of the fanatics in the military]. The other issue here would be if with his western borders secure - with Nazi Germany going down - Stalin makes an intervention against Japan.  Italy is probably not going to be something Britain would push on as Mussolini, with Germany being defeated will be keeping a profile so low it could be subterranean.

  Agree that a lot of the necessary social and economic changes that were started OTL will be a lot easier here and hopefully markedly more effective. 

  the withdrawal from empire may be delayed a bit but I think Attlee's government will realise its on its way out and in most cases is a burden rather than an asset.  India will definitely become independent, possibly earlier this time around although hopefully the sectarian bloodshed can be avoided and possibly it might end up as a dominion, at least for a time as that would set a useful precedent for other areas and make the movement easier.

[stevep]

Sept 20, 2022 11:22:22 GMT raharris1973 said:

Since the consensus here is that British AirPower cannot be applied directly to the Polish battlefield, and cannot be based or logistically supported from Polish or even continental airbases, but can mainly indirectly help by visiting mass destruction and terror on northwestern Germany and diverting Germany's fighter forces, I do have a suggested course of action for the Allied powers to take with their 'downtime' Dominion and colonial forces.

Air Force diversion and terror bombing may work to cause a coup, deter Soviet participation, or slow the Polish conquest down for lack of air support, but in case not, the British and French should direct their downtime colonial garrisons serving in the Middle East to begin to begin a deployment up to the Black Sea and Romania, secure Romania's participation in the war, and ensure the Polish forces maintain a clear line of retreat to southeastern Poland and the Romanian beach-head, from where they can be, over the medium-term, resupplied, and reinforced, with Romanian, British and French Colonial forces, and eventually Indian and Dominion forces, and Central European territory wouldn't be left solely at the mercy of locally strong Nazi and Soviet forces.

Romania was a pre-war ally of Poland, and with the demo of kick-ass British AirPower and news from the future, should be willing to participate on the British-Polish-French side from early on.

  Good point about Romania and once the bombs start falling on Germany it could be an option.  OTL the speed of the German attack, lack of real allied military response and fear of the Soviets then the fall of France pushed Romania into the German camp, despite German imposed transfers of territory from Romania to Bulgaria, Hungary and the USSR.  Here with some good diplomacy that could be changed.  Even Romanian neutrality and a sudden ending of oil supplies to Germany could be nasty for the latter. 

  The issue might be getting forces to Romania, assuming that they agree.  Britain would be a belligerent so it could be blocked from use of the straits?  Plus as miletus12, says it might be that Hungary will seek to block this.  However while the Czechs have gone Yugoslavia is still there as a potential Little Entente ally. 

  If it is possible to ship forces there I suspect that the bulk would come from the 45 forces in Britain as they are better equipped and should be ready to go pretty soon.  It would depend on how quickly and how much it was agreed with French for British forces there.  I'm not sure what Britain had in the ME at the start of the war but I know after the fall of France the garrison's were pretty threadbare so not sure what would be available.  Australia isn't going to have a lot yet and would be concerned about Japan once they learnt about up-time events so what could be sent of 39 forces would be from the Indian Army I suspect.

[stevep]

Sept 20, 2022 13:00:49 GMT simon darkshade said:

Dowding? What the dickens? He retired in 1942. This is an ISOT from 1945, so he is an irrelevant factor. Indeed, your paragraph on RAF leadership is irrelevant, as we aren’t talking about early war RAF leadership, but who comes back as of September 1945. Focus on the question and topic, not taking the opportunity to get on hobby horses, however accurate or not they may be.

You are spot on about the technical issues, in theory, and geography, but depending on the ISOT circumstances, there might not be an exclusion of the American made goods on hand as of the time. They won’t have them as an ongoing supply, but they won’t need enough for a medium term or long term war, but rather a dang short one.

  To make clear what US originated equipment that was with British forces - or possible civilian use - on 1-9-45 is brought back.  Lack of replacements, until they can be sorted out will be a problem and will degrade performance but in a short war that shouldn't be a massive issue.  I would expect that once Germany is sorted out, unless the Japanese are really, really stupid [which admittedly they might be] it would probably be a few months before the situation in the Far East comes to a head.