AHC: Have 1st atomic bomb target struck be Truk (Chu'uk) lagoon IJN anchorage (as planned at one poi

[raharris1973]

Jul 24, 2023 3:42:03 GMT miletus12 said:

Jul 23, 2023 21:59:05 GMT stevep said:

that's one of the points that inspired my comments but while Hailstone disabled it and forced its abandonment I suspect you would need the nuke to be available earlier for it to be a worthwhile target.  Possibly if Pearl and or Midway had gone worse than OTL and the US CV force had been pretty much totally destroyed.  That might delay the US advance via the central Pacific route even starting until the Essex class enter service in numbers and if the IJN in response to this build up have the bulk of their forces at Truk to counter this and the US doesn't yet have overwhelming carrier air strength to be confident of victory in a conventional attack then its a logical target. 

1943 how do you deliver it, and



Notice all the floating ships after ABLE? The USS Saratoga was 700 feet (200 meters) from the fireball. She was not even mission killed.

Does that tell you something about the limitations of an atomic bomb circa 1946? USS Nevada, the AIMPOINT, was scorched but not mission killed.

BAKER, the underwater burst would have better results from keel snaps and that big water hammer on close in ships, but again ships at some distance from the fireball were not mission killed.

The conclusion was that general concussion was not enough. You had to either use a very dirty bomb to poison the targets, or score direct hits on enemy capital units or overlap the bursts closely in time and space to assure proximity effects.

Four bombs instead of one. Probably double that number if you want to kill Chu'Uk as an anchorage. What works on a city, does not do so well against a fleet; even one at anchor... in 1946.

CYNICAL Miletus

Hey, I can believe it all.

I never promised it would be a successful or efficient mission, but it was one of the ones planned at some point. 

So then even if the bomb and a delivery system is available extra early, or the conventional war's progress, on both ETO and PTO is very slowed down, the bomb might not be usable until conventional forces can seize the right tactical positions to give good bomber range to an enemy city (and mass fighter escorted bomber range if it is to a German city).  

Mid-1940s atomic bombs were then sort of a deadly efficiently lethal weapon, but still fragile and of limited capability.  Sort of like the saber-tooth tiger's saber-teeth. They would never take down prey with them - the saber-teeth could get damaged or broken and miss the vitals. Sabre-tooth tigers would still use their paws, claws, and weight to pin down their prey, just like any other big cat, but then use the saber-teeth for one big clean lethal bit to the carotid. So it would be with mid-40s atomic bombs.

[miletus12]

Jul 25, 2023 1:30:19 GMT raharris1973 said:

I never promised it would be a successful or efficient mission, but it was one of the ones planned at some point. 

Against the shore facilities, raharris1973 . See MAP.



The Japanese Combined Fleet held administrative control over the naval base> There were four principle anchorages.\
a. Capital ships were berthed in the lee waters off Fefan Island, south of Mount Iron. 
b. Merchant vessels and logistics ships were parked to the east of Fefan and north of Umman.
c. Destroyers, tenders, submarines and large auxiliaries were assigned anchorage spots in deep water southeast of Moen, between the protective reefs that acted as natural anti-torpedo defenses and a natural boundary marker, since this area was a bit too shallow for the deeper draft Japaneses warships.
d. Onamue Cove was a delousing and overflow parking space for unassigned new arrivals, since Piannu Pass was the primary entry and exit into the lagoon. 

In many ways, Chu'UK was laid out much like Scapa Flow. It presented an interesting air raid problem. How to hit it might not be obvious. The Americans chose the southwest vector, being a bit obvious about it. They were after Japanese "Battleship Row". They were disappointed to find the IJN fled in December of 1943, leaving behind only stranded merchantmen and naval auxiliaries.       

There was a major airfield complex  and seaplane base on Fefan on the southern shore and plain. Tol had the most airfields, with 3 or 5, I forget how many. This is where the Japanese flattop air groups parked themselves ashore when not embarked. The dashed lines are the various entry / exit channels and routes assigned to ships based on their drafts, with arrows that lead to their appropriate berth areas as those were deemed to suit the ship's drafts. 
  
Obviously, you drop two bombs as close together in time as you can manage on Fefan and Tol, one bomb each, to wreck the shore facilities. Once the Japanese come boiling out for a fight, you wait with the Fifth Fleet and go full Turkey Shoot on them, if you can catch them as they emerge before they form up. 

That was the intent of HAILSTONE originally, minus the atomic bombs, of course.    

[michelvan]

Jul 25, 2023 1:21:46 GMT raharris1973 said:

Wait, you have seen something about Lubeck, of all places, having been specified as a target in Germany?

Where did you see that and what was the rationale.

two reasons

it was near the Wehrmacht and Nazi HQ in Flensburg
and one of few german City not bomb into the stone age like Hanau or Dresden

on German target
Berlin and Mannheim-Ludwigshafen were consider as Target early in War
Hanau, Konstanz, Heidelberg would have be also potential targets.


blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2013/10/04/atomic-bomb-used-nazi-germany/