The 13 Colonies stay British (discussion)

[michelvan]

Now what if the American revolution fails in 1777 ?
(Thomas Fleming point out 13 events were the Americans battle had failed for Washington in book What If ?)

How would World History evolve if Britain rule over North America ?

One thing obvious is that British ignore Australia and New Zeeland for moment, and continue dump convicted in the 13 Colonies.

More interesting is what happen in Europe, special France do it role it play in failed American revolution.
i think that Revolution of 1789 will happen and Napoleon rise to power.
but the Coalition wars will be very different.

Napoleon is unable to sell off Louisiana, since there is no USA, or is Spain able to Buy it ? 
likely that British army is send into Louisiana and annex it for Empire, follow dispute with Spain about east frontier of new British territory. 
France lack 80 million french franc for warfare, is it realistic, that the French Empire is bankrupt after the fourth Coalition war? 

Force this Napoleon to diplomatic initiative, like with Neutral Prussia (this could prevent that Prussia become military Power in Europa)
also focus he on consolidation  of new Kingdoms and new "third" Germany founded out his German Allies as buffer states  against Prussia and Austria 
But in end Napoleon will be remove from Power, either a fifth Coalition war or french revolution do Napoleon despotic ruling. 
Depending how Britain with full support American colonies now is able to deal with France forces.

The Congress of Vienna could have different outcome.
also has British Empire to deal with new nations in America, forming out Spanish colonies. special Mexico who border now with British Colonies.  

[stevep]

Aug 6, 2023 18:15:07 GMT michelvan said:

Now what if the American revolution fails in 1777 ?
(Thomas Fleming point out 13 events were the Americans battle had failed for Washington in book What If ?)

How would World History evolve if Britain rule over North America ?

One thing obvious is that British ignore Australia and New Zeeland for moment, and continue dump convicted in the 13 Colonies.

More interesting is what happen in Europe, special France do it role it play in failed American revolution.
i think that Revolution of 1789 will happen and Napoleon rise to power.
but the Coalition wars will be very different.

Napoleon is unable to sell off Louisiana, since there is no USA, or is Spain able to Buy it ? 
likely that British army is send into Louisiana and annex it for Empire, follow dispute with Spain about east frontier of new British territory. 
France lack 80 million french franc for warfare, is it realistic, that the French Empire is bankrupt after the fourth Coalition war? 

Force this Napoleon to diplomatic initiative, like with Neutral Prussia (this could prevent that Prussia become military Power in Europa)
also focus he on consolidation  of new Kingdoms and new "third" Germany founded out his German Allies as buffer states  against Prussia and Austria 
But in end Napoleon will be remove from Power, either a fifth Coalition war or french revolution do Napoleon despotic ruling. 
Depending how Britain with full support American colonies now is able to deal with France forces.

The Congress of Vienna could have different outcome.
also has British Empire to deal with new nations in America, forming out Spanish colonies. special Mexico who border now with British Colonies.  

  As always the devil is in the details.  In what way is the revolution in the US defeated?  How much does this just prompt more problems further down the road or avoid them? Can't see it being fully incorporated into the UK as neither party wanted that.  Does Britain maintain powers to tax the colonies for their local defence?  Does it happen before France, Spain and the Netherlands get directly involved?  If so although it will still have economic problems the crisis of fiance that helped trigger the French revolution might be delayed - possibly although unlikely I suspect for it to be averted totally.  Also what is the impact of this on the reform movement in Britain?  Is it weakened or strengthened?

  With such a big butterfly its difficult to see how the French revolution might go.  A more liberal Britain will be more supportive of its early stages longer - at least until the bloodshed starts - while a more reactionary one could be more hostile.  Is the French royal family executed, sent into exile/escape or stay as a constitutional monarchy with greatly reduced powers?  The 1st happened OTL but the others are options.  Without the execution or at least exile of the monarchy it could be possible that there is no intervention from Austria and Prussia and hence possibly the revolutionary wars avoided totally.

  If they still occur then while once the republic starts to fracture under pressure a military strong man could still come to power but by no means certain that would be Napoleon.

 

[michelvan]

Aug 6, 2023 21:58:11 GMT stevep said:

As always the devil is in the details.

Yes there were events were Revolution war could ended bad:

Like Washington attack on Trenton during snowstorm, what could gone terrible wrong for USA army.

or that after the landing of British army at Manhattan Island, then waiting on unneeded reinforcement, while Washington army escape.
Had British officer show more Initiative here i wonder if Washington even had chance ?

Or that Benedict Arnold ignore his order in battle of Saratoga, what let to victory for USA.

also that British command were quarreled among themselves, what let to some losses.

or Washington succumbs to temptation and attack Boston in 1776.

The British were successful in battle of Bunker Hill.

or British Captain Ferguson pull the trigger and killed Washington in autumn 1977 ?
and Horatio Gates replace him as head of USA army ?

That British Army manage to intercept and destroy the French expedition send to help the USA Army.

if Daniel Morgan lost the battle of Cowpens, could give British the upper hand in war

or Washington hesitate to march to Yorktown, give British army the chance to react and march toward USA army.

And finally, what if Washington would not have succeeded, Put an end to the Newburgh conspiracy?

[stevep]

Aug 7, 2023 14:12:46 GMT michelvan said:

Aug 6, 2023 21:58:11 GMT stevep said:

As always the devil is in the details.

Yes there were events were Revolution war could ended bad:

Like Washington attack on Trenton during snowstorm, what could gone terrible wrong for USA army.

or that after the landing of British army at Manhattan Island, then waiting on unneeded reinforcement, while Washington army escape.
Had British officer show more Initiative here i wonder if Washington even had chance ?

Or that Benedict Arnold ignore his order in battle of Saratoga, what let to victory for USA.

also that British command were quarreled among themselves, what let to some losses.

or Washington succumbs to temptation and attack Boston in 1776.

The British were successful in battle of Bunker Hill.

or British Captain Ferguson pull the trigger and killed Washington in autumn 1977 ?
and Horatio Gates replace him as head of USA army ?

That British Army manage to intercept and destroy the French expedition send to help the USA Army.

if Daniel Morgan lost the battle of Cowpens, could give British the upper hand in war

or Washington hesitate to march to Yorktown, give British army the chance to react and march toward USA army.

And finally, what if Washington would not have succeeded, Put an end to the Newburgh conspiracy?

  There are a lot of ways for the British/loyalists to win the war but the different ways lead to different futures.  Not sure avoiding defeat at Yorktown would have been enough as the rebels were pretty firmly established across much of the colonies by then and Britain was losing appetite for continuing the war.  Even a more decisive victory at Yorktown, say a crushing victory in the Battle of the Chesapeake over the French navy, while it might possibly speed French desire to continue the war is unlikely to lead to the complete suppression of the rebellion by that time.

  Knew of the soldiers unrest over lack of pay, which was a persistent issue for the rebels, there being unrest as well prior to the march to Yorktown.  However the case you referred to - the Newburgh conspiracy - would have been too late to prevent the forming of the US.  Unless you mean serious internal unrest resulting from this might have led to most/all of the colonies returning to British control?

  The best bet was as you say early on.  I once read that the delay allowing Washington to escape from Manhattan Island was actual a decision by the commanding officer who thought that having defeated the rebels - which to a degree he had - letting them slip away from a crushing defeat was the best way to encourage them to accept terms.  Which if it was the case was clearly a serious error.

[American hist]

American history would look more similar to Canadian history. While researching Canadian history and comparing it to Canada I have found striking similarities to each other. In most respects I think Canada gives us a model to what the American colonies would have looked like.

[stevep]

Aug 13, 2023 22:54:40 GMT American hist said:

American history would look more similar to Canadian history. While researching Canadian history and comparing it to Canada I have found striking similarities to each other. In most respects I think Canada gives us a model to what the American colonies would have looked like.

  To a degree yes, especially if the colonies stay peaceful and contented.  However they will be a much bigger and more powerful bloc than OTL Canada - which might end up part of it which will inevitably have some impact.  Unless the lack of an external threat means that they end up as a number of smaller nations when they become independent.

[Carolus Orlandus]

Aug 13, 2023 22:54:40 GMT American hist said:

American history would look more similar to Canadian history. While researching Canadian history and comparing it to Canada I have found striking similarities to each other. In most respects I think Canada gives us a model to what the American colonies would have looked like.

If OTL America just so happens to end up like Canada ITTL (possibly I'll assume by around the mid-1800s when if America outpopulates Britain like IOTL), you'll eventually encounter the question on whether or not Westminster wants the American colonies united into one dominion or keep them as separate smaller regional dominions.

The Thirteen Colonies traded amongst themselves (plus the other European nation-states) was one of the key causes in their overall unity in becoming the US.
It's just that Westminster imposed restrictions on trade in attempt to force the colonies to only purchase British imports (especially with Tea), and the rest was history.

This discussion is my favorite AH trope, I had mentioned this a while back in the AH.com thread "What alternate history ideas you wish they were used more often?"

[stevep]

Aug 21, 2023 11:33:32 GMT Carolus Orlandus said:

Aug 13, 2023 22:54:40 GMT American hist said:

American history would look more similar to Canadian history. While researching Canadian history and comparing it to Canada I have found striking similarities to each other. In most respects I think Canada gives us a model to what the American colonies would have looked like.

If OTL America just so happens to end up like Canada ITTL (possibly I'll assume by around the mid-1800s when if America outpopulates Britain like IOTL), you'll eventually encounter the question on whether or not Westminster wants the American colonies united into one dominion or keep them as separate smaller regional dominions.

The Thirteen Colonies traded amongst themselves (plus the other European nation-states) was one of the key causes in their overall unity in becoming the US.
It's just that Westminster imposed restrictions on trade in attempt to force the colonies to only purchase British imports (especially with Tea), and the rest was history.

This discussion is my favorite AH trope, I had mentioned this a while back in the AH.com thread "What alternate history ideas you wish they were used more often?"

  This was the standard economic policy of the more advanced nations in Europe at the time, not just the UK.  It also gave big advantages to the colonies as they were assured access to markets in the rest of the British empire without competition from other powers.  I remember reading a certain Ben Franklin expressing his support of the policy in the 1760's until of course political ideas/advantages changed his views and that of others.

  The attack on British supplied tea was because it was cheaper than that of smugglers who were seeing their profit margins undercut and also they made political capital out of it because the tax on such tea was to supply a proportion of the funding for the defence of the colonies by Britain.

  Its likely that at some time as colonies that stay a part of the empire develop their likely to increasingly take responsibility for their own defence so that latter issue would be moot.  The question of protectionism in both the colonies and the homeland as the former develops their own industrial base would be an important and probably complex one.  Whether the colonies would unite into a single federation, a number of larger units or possibly even stay largely independent of each other would probably drive much of such a TL.

[mspence]

Comte de Vergennes decides against an alliance with the Americans after Washington's defeats in New York?

[stevep]

Aug 23, 2023 10:08:16 GMT mspence said:

Comte de Vergennes decides against an alliance with the Americans after Washington's defeats in New York?

  Quite possible if the defeat had been more decisive, i.e. heavy American losses rather than much of the army escaping.

[michelvan]

I think to have senario that work

5 march 1776, The battle of Boston
Washington order attack what he thinks is weak defended City, only to ran into heavy fortify stronghold.
the Continental Army retreating after heavy losses, a serious blow for moral of that Army.

1776 the New York campaign ended in disaster for Washington and his remaining Army.
The Continental Army face superior British army, after battle of Brooklyn, Washington try to escape with remains of his army.
Only to be encircle in Manhattan, forced to surrender and taken Washington capture and send him to London.
while capture General John Sullivan is send to deliver a message to Congress in Philadelphia, were British wanted to negotiate.

In mean time the congress appointed Horatio Gates as successor of George Washington.
he is a very ambitious power hungry men, but lack totally the military experience of Washington.
his Allies are the fanatic Samuel Adams who misjudgement the current situation totally.
in mean time general Benedict Arnold switch side, as he consider the revolution as failed and join the British force.
and manage to hand over Fort West Point back to the British.

The following battles ended in defeat for the Continental Army, while Gates "retreat" alone on Horse over distance of 250 km !
for Congress in Philadelphia situation is bad, the dollar became worthless, in the 13 colonies the militias dissolve.
British control New York area, congress last hope is french support.

ill advice King Louis XVI, increase support for US congress, not only financial, but also with military force.
1778 the french fleet try to take Newport and land 5500 french soldiers on 13 colonies.
Only to be destroy by British Royal Navy.

After that the Congress in Philadelphia start to negotiate with British Gouverneur to end the conflict.

Some of American revolutionary leaders went into hiding or escape to France,
Other like Samuel Adams are executed in public as warning.

most of American revolutionary leaders went to France died during the Reign of Terror by Robespierre.

[stevep]

Aug 24, 2023 4:27:53 GMT michelvan said:

I think to have senario that work

5 march 1776, The battle of Boston
Washington order attack what he thinks is weak defended City, only to ran into heavy fortify stronghold.
the Continental Army retreating after heavy losses, a serious blow for moral of that Army.

1776 the New York campaign ended in disaster for Washington and his remaining Army.
The Continental Army face superior British army, after battle of Brooklyn, Washington try to escape with remains of his army.
Only to be encircle in Manhattan, forced to surrender and taken Washington capture and send him to London.
while capture General John Sullivan is send to deliver a message to Congress in Philadelphia, were British wanted to negotiate.

In mean time the congress appointed Horatio Gates as successor of George Washington.
he is a very ambitious power hungry men, but lack totally the military experience of Washington.
his Allies are the fanatic Samuel Adams who misjudgement the current situation totally.
in mean time general Benedict Arnold switch side, as he consider the revolution as failed and join the British force.
and manage to hand over Fort West Point back to the British.

The following battles ended in defeat for the Continental Army, while Gates "retreat" alone on Horse over distance of 250 km !
for Congress in Philadelphia situation is bad, the dollar became worthless, in the 13 colonies the militias dissolve.
British control New York area, congress last hope is french support.

ill advice King Louis XVI, increase support for US congress, not only financial, but also with military force.
1778 the french fleet try to take Newport and land 5500 french soldiers on 13 colonies.
Only to be destroy by British Royal Navy.

After that the Congress in Philadelphia start to negotiate with British Gouverneur to end the conflict.

Some of American revolutionary leaders went into hiding or escape to France,
Other like Samuel Adams are executed in public as warning.

most of American revolutionary leaders went to France died during the Reign of Terror by Robespierre.

  That sounds like a possible scenario.  Not sure whether the French revolution would occur on scheduled without the massive drain on resources due to prolonged French involvement in the revolt, although the fiasco of the defeat of the French intervention is likely to be bad for the government's prestige.  At this point the French policy was to avoid a major war in Europe so it could concentrate its forces against Britain at sea and in the colonies and OTL it was only in the last stages of the war that Britain really started to gain an edge at sea.

  A lot would depend on what terms the final agreement between London and the rebels agreed and how things settle down afterwards.  If there is an acceptance of a moderate level of taxation to contribute towards the costs of the protection of the colonies and the bulk of the most violent elements fleeing then its likely things will settle down fairly quickly, at least for a while.

  One butterfly without a prolonged war with other European powers is that borders will be a bit different, with Britain keeping Florida and other locations for instance.

[michelvan]

Aug 24, 2023 8:39:18 GMT stevep said:

Not sure whether the French revolution would occur on scheduled without the massive drain on resources due to prolonged French involvement in the revolt

The French revolution will happen, it was combination of economic/finance Missmanagement, despotism of nobility, lack of interest by King on situation and famine,
all this let to revolution of 1789.

Kingdom of France was serious weaken from The Seven Years War (1756–1763)
It lost territory in colonies to Britain, let to French colonial trade declined by 81% !
had large financial debt of 700 Millionen Livre or roughly 10 billion in today euros.
France was insolvency for three years after that war.

Étienne de Silhouette try as finance minister, to bring France out disaster, but nobility and church opposed to pay tax,
So the King Louis XV replace him with others less competent men.
unter King Louis XVI happen the American revolution, he put last reserve into this conflict to help them and hurt British...

[Max Sinister]

Do you know "For Want of a Nail"? You may disagree with the details, but at least Sobel has some ideas. (The rebels are punished, but the Brits don't start mass murders in retaliation.)

[michelvan]

Aug 24, 2023 22:23:56 GMT Max Sinister said:

Do you know "For Want of a Nail"?

Thank to you, i know now of that novel !

Aug 24, 2023 4:27:53 GMT michelvan said:

The following battles ended in defeat for the Continental Army, while Gates "retreat" alone on Horse over distance of 250 km !

This match, when British General John Burgoyne defeats American Generals Horatio Gates at the Battle of Saratoga in October 1777. depicted in Novel
(in my senario general Benedict Arnold switch side and work for British)

Odd is in Novel is state of Jefferson (Texas) i was thinking also to create a Texas as buffer state between Mexico and British empire.
After British conquer Louisiana in Coalition wars. what let to quiet different outcome for Napoleon 
A Texas republic with more German, Belgium and Irish settler.

Oh by the way, Belgium take Australia as colony instead British empire, who show little interest in this part in world here.