Post by stevep on Oct 7, 2023 18:20:37 GMT
Oct 7, 2023 15:20:37 GMT 575 said:
575 ,
Well initial thoughts. I can't see Saudi surviving. Its lost a hell of a lot of its workforce, including both the bulk of the labourers and a fair number of the actual technical people - as opposed to the official Saudi managers. Also for a while at least their going to be pretty much cut off from a lot of their trading partners while with both the much smaller population and the fact that the North Sea oil is still in place that's going to be a lot easier for many consumers to reach. All this coupled with the loss of contact with neighbours is going to cause disruption and I think the regime will be unable to survive it. I fear the result will be a period of disorder probably succeeded by an even more fanatical religious group emerging from the chaos, along with a lot of deaths as largely isolated from the rest of the world too many parts of the complex economy will be lost. - If it doesn't or even before while it is collapsing I wouldn't be surprised if there's also an attempt to 'reclaim' the 3rd holiest site in Sunni Islam, namely the location of Jerusalem. Albeit that others could be interested in that region.
With Spain it could become one of the dominant powers of the new world as its probably the most populated - other than possibly S Korea - of the stable economies. A lot would depend on its stability and how it handles the challenges and opportunities.
One thing it and other European nations could be involved in would be a restored Papacy as that's likely to be of interest to what Catholics are in this new world. I suspect it would probably be located in Spain at least for a while as the largest Catholic nation left, although possibly relocated to a rebuilt Rome at some time in the uture. What they will do about selecting new cardinals, let alone a new Pope I don't know but I think there will be some attempt as such.
Sorry to disagree with your Danish characters but I can't really see a Danish state of any size emerging. Sweden and possibly also the Scheswig Germans are too large in terms of local population and the core of Denmark too rich in potential not to draw in settlers.
In terms of climate, all other things being equal the new world will be somewhat colder than what their used to. Both in terms of the lower levels of CO2 and CH4 but also because of the large areas of plant and ice cover. Possibly not significantly so but it will be cooler. - There are suggestions that the development of agriculture by humanity, especially paddy fields in E and S Asia because of the CH4 production may have saved the world from another ice age, or at least significant period of cooling. If that was the case it would be a lot colder but that would make for too much complexity in the story.
On a related issue without humans there are likely to be a lot of mega-fauna across much of the virgin lands, which will create problems and opportunities, at least as long as they last.
S Africa may develop as you suggest, although that assumes both the Zulu's being willing to abandon their ancestral lands totally, rather than just expanding into empty lands on their borders and a fair bit of desire among the other groups to actually work together and to do so intelligently. I fear its far more likely to see a lot of bloodshed as the blame game is likely, with the country largely isolated from the rest of the world, to be more popular among many people.
In terms of the US I wonder how long the idea of a unified US will exist. You have two largely isolated populated regions that while they - especially in S Carolina - have a lot of military power for the moment are likely to struggle to keep in contact let alone have the same interests.
S Korea and Singapore will both have massive opportunities for expansion as they have plenty of room although initial isolation could be an issue and also in the former case their serious demographic problems.
Anyway initial thoughts.
Indeed but this is a world of 356 mill. peoples with modern farming - looked that up - Global population like that of 1100 when there was a climate optimum the Medieval so I don't expect them to freeze. Now You are the pessimist! Granted a decade may go before the change make it. Still they're not gonna perish in the frostlands. 
Edit - no the two ain't interconnected but we don't know the present climate in this pristine world - prior to agriculture the World experienced climate changes too.
Not sure what you mean. I wasn't assuming an Ice Age, although there are some suggestions that might have been a possibility. However as I said that's only a theory so ignoring that their definitely not going to suffer in an Ice Age. However it will almost certainly be cooler than OTL. Probably similar to what we knew in our youth or a bit cooler but not likely to cause massive deaths. - That could/probably will occur in some areas where their dependent on trade and imports and could see a major collapse without those activities being available.