France attacked 25 October 1939

[stevep]

Feb 20, 2024 16:12:39 GMT 575 said:

Even if Luftwaffe was still able to fly more sorties a day than the Allies that was changing too mainly due to the general shortage of aircraft fuel on the German side though in no small way due to better Aircraft on the Allied side closing the gap. Even the Belgians had received their ordered F-4F Wildcat Fighter aircraft termed G-36A from the USA as did France which had been ordered these to outfit the building Carriers of the Joffre class.
The Belgians with the mineral export of their African Colony Congo kept ordering the aircraft as they were lost both as replacements and for new units.

With the odds seemingly against him Hitler now decided to deliver a devastating blow to Allied Morale; Luftwaffe was to bomb the Belgians and French to have their populations demanding peace and a cessation of proceeding the War.
Of course some industrial cities had been hit during the War as production and port facilities along railway track and marshalling yeards had been bombed on either side of the frontlines. However untill now no dedicated attacks had been made on the civil infrastructure much less the populations as such.
Luftwaffe of course had gained a reputation for such during its participation in the Spanish Civil War so it ought to be well suited for the task. Luftwaffe did inform the Fuhrer that Allied retaliation should be expected and that the fighting so far had disproved the Douhet Doctrine of the Bomber always getting through and that Allied Fighter defences had improved during the fighting.
Never the less Hitler instructed Luftwaffe to attack Antwerp as a transportation and industrial hub very important to the British war effort. Besides the port installations and railway and industry the city as such should be razed just like Guernica.

  Well lets see.  This will cause massive outrage, both among the allies and also neutrals, or at least those who are democratic and have any respect for human rights and limits on warfare.  For another given its location I can see Dutch neutrality being breached, both with aircraft crossing it and probably some bombs landing there.  Also I would expect while the initial attack will gain some surprise the allies will quickly adjust and make such operations very expensive for the Luftwaffe.  Furthermore with much of German industrial centres in the west, close to the French and Belgium borders the allies will respond in kind.  Losses with be heavy for both sides in such operations but if BC does switch to night attacks as a result its much easier to reach German targets and also guide them in any early battle of the beams.

[575]

Feb 20, 2024 18:40:43 GMT stevep said:

Feb 20, 2024 16:12:39 GMT 575 said:

Even if Luftwaffe was still able to fly more sorties a day than the Allies that was changing too mainly due to the general shortage of aircraft fuel on the German side though in no small way due to better Aircraft on the Allied side closing the gap. Even the Belgians had received their ordered F-4F Wildcat Fighter aircraft termed G-36A from the USA as did France which had been ordered these to outfit the building Carriers of the Joffre class.
The Belgians with the mineral export of their African Colony Congo kept ordering the aircraft as they were lost both as replacements and for new units.

With the odds seemingly against him Hitler now decided to deliver a devastating blow to Allied Morale; Luftwaffe was to bomb the Belgians and French to have their populations demanding peace and a cessation of proceeding the War.
Of course some industrial cities had been hit during the War as production and port facilities along railway track and marshalling yeards had been bombed on either side of the frontlines. However untill now no dedicated attacks had been made on the civil infrastructure much less the populations as such.
Luftwaffe of course had gained a reputation for such during its participation in the Spanish Civil War so it ought to be well suited for the task. Luftwaffe did inform the Fuhrer that Allied retaliation should be expected and that the fighting so far had disproved the Douhet Doctrine of the Bomber always getting through and that Allied Fighter defences had improved during the fighting.
Never the less Hitler instructed Luftwaffe to attack Antwerp as a transportation and industrial hub very important to the British war effort. Besides the port installations and railway and industry the city as such should be razed just like Guernica.

  Well lets see.  This will cause massive outrage, both among the allies and also neutrals, or at least those who are democratic and have any respect for human rights and limits on warfare.  For another given its location I can see Dutch neutrality being breached, both with aircraft crossing it and probably some bombs landing there.  Also I would expect while the initial attack will gain some surprise the allies will quickly adjust and make such operations very expensive for the Luftwaffe.  Furthermore with much of German industrial centres in the west, close to the French and Belgium borders the allies will respond in kind.  Losses with be heavy for both sides in such operations but if BC does switch to night attacks as a result its much easier to reach German targets and also guide them in any early battle of the beams.

Well very much my thoughts - cornered a Rotterdam won't be impossible to "teach the Western Allies and their henchmen a lesson". The choice of Antwerp refer to my earlier post on that port being used for British supplies and reinforcement so quite vital but not irreplaceable.

[575]

Its June 1940 and PM Chamberlain is still quite ill.
Any suggestions for this ATL of British PM? I don't really see Churchill except if some crisis should occur - (though German terror bombing)?

[stevep]

Feb 20, 2024 19:41:49 GMT 575 said:

Its June 1940 and PM Chamberlain is still quite ill.
Any suggestions for this ATL of British PM? I don't really see Churchill except if some crisis should occur - (though German terror bombing)?

  Well OTL the other obvious candidate was Lord Halifax but OTL he seemed reluctant to step into the role in such a terrible situation and is reported as wanting a peace with Germany.  Here the position is far superior for the allies and reading about his behaviour during and after the Munich crisis he seems to have have had more of a backbone than Chamberlain.  that might make him a candidate although he also has the problem of being in the House of Lords which means he can't himself talk or be questioned in the Commons which is a significant barrier.

  Not sure who might be another candidate but this page on Chamberlain's War Cabinet could be useful.  I think - assuming a government of national unity is formed which may not be certain in such a better position - it would be a Tory as they have a clear majority in the house.  If its not either Churchill or Halifax then it would really have to be one of those people as their got the established influence.  Without the Norway debacle and then the collapse of France and western Europe even Churchill might not be that interested in inviting senior Labour and Liberal figures into a National government.

[575]

Feb 20, 2024 21:51:08 GMT stevep said:

Feb 20, 2024 19:41:49 GMT 575 said:

Its June 1940 and PM Chamberlain is still quite ill.
Any suggestions for this ATL of British PM? I don't really see Churchill except if some crisis should occur - (though German terror bombing)?

  Well OTL the other obvious candidate was Lord Halifax but OTL he seemed reluctant to step into the role in such a terrible situation and is reported as wanting a peace with Germany.  Here the position is far superior for the allies and reading about his behaviour during and after the Munich crisis he seems to have have had more of a backbone than Chamberlain.  that might make him a candidate although he also has the problem of being in the House of Lords which means he can't himself talk or be questioned in the Commons which is a significant barrier.

  Not sure who might be another candidate but this page on Chamberlain's War Cabinet could be useful.  I think - assuming a government of national unity is formed which may not be certain in such a better position - it would be a Tory as they have a clear majority in the house.  If its not either Churchill or Halifax then it would really have to be one of those people as their got the established influence.  Without the Norway debacle and then the collapse of France and western Europe even Churchill might not be that interested in inviting senior Labour and Liberal figures into a National government.

stevep;

Thanks for your input - it is along the lines I thought. I'll have a look into it.

[575]

British Cabinet change Januarys 1940 to June 1940

PM Neville Chamberlain had at the outbreak of War set up a War Cabinet consisting of:
Sir Samuel Hoare – Lord Privy Seal
Sir John Simon – Chancellor of the Exchequer
Lord Halifax – Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs
Leslie Hore-Belisha – Secretary of State for War
Sir Kingsley Wood – Secretary of State for Air
Winston Churchill – First Lord of the Admiralty
Lord Chatfield – Minister for Coordination of Defence
Lord Hankey – Minister without Portfolio

By January 1940 due to the tempo of the war in Belgium with the BEF and RAF heavily involved in the fighting Oliver Stanley succeeds Leslie Hore-Belisha as Secretary of State for War as Hore-Belisha had held views on the conduct of War that was conflicting with the Heads of Services, BEF Commander Gort and RAF Expeditionary Force.
Another change due to the war was the office of Minister for Coordination of Defence which was abolished.
Sir Kingsley Wood who had actually managed to expand the production of aircraft to rival that of Germany's had been worn out by the constant pressure and had been made Lord Privy Seal which actually saw him getting his energies renewed.

Sir Samuel Hoare had been exchanged a few months later due to the deterioration of the health of PM Chamberlain by his protege Anthony Eden as Secretary of State for Air.

By the end of June everybody was wondering what would happen once Chamberlain would be so badly off as unable to run Government.

[575]

The during Winter mobilized Infantry Divisions by Germany – some 30 equipped with Czech arms was then ready to swarm the Allies in Belgium and push towards the Channel Coast. Another 15 Divisions were still training making for a German total of 105 Infantry Divisions, 6 Motorized Infantry Divisions and 10 Armoured as the 9 Light Division had finally been able to fit out as a Panzer one.

On the other side of the Hill the WAllies hadn't laid idle – France had mobilized 75 Infantry Divisions, 7 Motorized Infantry Divisions that was about to be real motorized with each Division having its own motorpool instead of a central one, 7 Armoured Divisions with 2 more training and 4 Polish Infantry Divisions and an Armoured Brigade.
Britain had continued mobilization and had the BEF increased to 14 Infantry Divisions counting the 1 Canadian and a mixed NZ – AUS Division; 1 Motorized Infantry Division that was to receive Renault APCs, 2 Armoured Divisions and 1 Tank Brigade. In Britain some 18 Infantry and 2 Armoured Divisions was training.

Belgium had because of losses in men and territory been forced to downscale the Army from 20 Cavalry and Infantry to 12 Infantry Divisions. This however made for generally stronger formations with more automatic weapons, Anti-Tank guns and artillery than before.

In Infantry Divisions the two opposing forces was now of equal numbers but the WAllies had 8 Motorized Infantry Divisions, 9 Armoured Divisions and 2 Armoured Brigades against the Germans
6 Motorized and 10 Panzer Divisions.

The French had also begun a recruitment campaign in mainly Morocco, North Africa and in West Africa where the troops were termed Senegalese besides the replacement troops called up to fill the holes left by the 10 Infantry Divisions already shipped to France.
Finally the French Army had begun rebuilding its 16 Infantry Tank Brigades of which 4 mainly consisting of FT-17's had been virtually destroyed during the fighting to be able to have a nucleus from which to form new Armoured Divisions. These formations were placed in rear areas to have an armoured reserve in case of a German breakthrough of the frontlines.

[stevep]

Feb 22, 2024 8:44:05 GMT 575 said:

The during Winter mobilized Infantry Divisions by Germany – some 30 equipped with Czech arms was then ready to swarm the Allies in Belgium and push towards the Channel Coast. Another 15 Divisions were still training making for a German total of 105 Infantry Divisions, 6 Motorized Infantry Divisions and 10 Armoured as the 9 Light Division had finally been able to fit out as a Panzer one.

On the other side of the Hill the WAllies hadn't laid idle – France had mobilized 75 Infantry Divisions, 7 Motorized Infantry Divisions that was about to be real motorized with each Division having its own motorpool instead of a central one, 7 Armoured Divisions with 2 more training and 4 Polish Infantry Divisions and an Armoured Brigade.
Britain had continued mobilization and had the BEF increased to 14 Infantry Divisions counting the 1 Canadian and a mixed NZ – AUS Division; 1 Motorized Infantry Division that was to receive Renault APCs, 2 Armoured Divisions and 1 Tank Brigade. In Britain some 18 Infantry and 2 Armoured Divisions was training.

Belgium had because of losses in men and territory been forced to downscale the Army from 20 Cavalry and Infantry to 12 Infantry Divisions. This however made for generally stronger formations with more automatic weapons, Anti-Tank guns and artillery than before.

In Infantry Divisions the two opposing forces was now of equal numbers but the WAllies had 8 Motorized Infantry Divisions, 9 Armoured Divisions and 2 Armoured Brigades against the Germans
6 Motorized and 10 Panzer Divisions.

The French had also begun a recruitment campaign in mainly Morocco, North Africa and in West Africa where the troops were termed Senegalese besides the replacement troops called up to fill the holes left by the 10 Infantry Divisions already shipped to France.
Finally the French Army had begun rebuilding its 16 Infantry Tank Brigades of which 4 mainly consisting of FT-17's had been virtually destroyed during the fighting to be able to have a nucleus from which to form new Armoured Divisions. These formations were placed in rear areas to have an armoured reserve in case of a German breakthrough of the frontlines.

  The big question, if the Germans do make a break-through somewhere is have the allies upgraded their decision making process and communications so they can respond in time.  Although as well as the land forces air will have a potential huge impact here.  Both in terms of air attacks on ground targets and denying the opponents doing the same and also in simply having a clearer idea of what the hell's going on so they can respond quickly.

[575]

Antwerp
Since the German attack on Belgium 25 October 1939 and subsequent WAllied advance into the country the British Expeditionary Force and RAF Expeditionary Force had been building up Antwerp port as the supply hub. It had eased the transport of equipment though still the Channel Ports and Brest would be used for transport of personnel to not unsettle the neutrality of the Dutch.

Antwerp was a large port but it was also situated behind the Dutch border to the west where the Schelt River that crossed through Antwerp and then entered Dutch Zeeland Province before emptying into the North Sea.
To use the port for supplies the British had had quite some negotiations with the Dutch Government as RN ships would only be allowed passage of the waterway as single ships not in formations. Merchantmen had escaped restrictions though the Dutch had been rather worried about the whole arrangement. Not to say that the Germans had protested it but since no troops were transported arrangements had been made which had the Dutch put a blind eye to recurrent Luftwaffe violations of Dutch airspace; violations that the Dutch Army Airforce did intercept and had become better at with the recent adoption of the Fokker G-1 as the new standard fighter aircraft – faster and better armed than the Fokker D-XXI which had been crated and shipped off to bolster the defences of the NEI.
These negotiations had made for Germany via the Netherlands been allowed to import some goods that might potentially end up in Germany having been part of industrial process in the Netherlands. One of these goods was oil from the NEI – not exceeding pre-War amounts but then the Dutch had oil ration so some might go to Germany.

The port however was important as it was thé major Belgian port and the country needed it for its imports which had been off negotiations though not to offend Germany regarding Dutch neutrality had to be kept at pre-War level.
To some it was such a convoluted arrangement that would only happen in Wartime – like in another reality where the Soviet Union and Germany were at war and the USA and Japan at war but USA anyway supplying the Soviet Union by shipping going around the Japanese islands - and really shouldn't; but it was one of Europe's major ports and too good not to use to carry supplies in quatity to the BEF and so show the Belgiens that the WAllies wouldn't desert them.

As Antwerp like the French border cities such as Strassbourg, Sedan and Metz and Channel Ports at Oostende, Belgium, Dunquerque, Calais and Boulogne at times had been attacked by German bombers; thus and because of its use as a British Supply hub quite a number of AA-batteries had been set up as had a Radar site to scan the surrounds for German Aircraft approaching the city and port.
Several Belgians had been assigned to support the BEF at Antwerp mostly with damage control parties but also in low-level airraid warning units.
Among these a cartoonist George Remi who would serve with a airraid low-level warning unit which kept him out of the city generally during airraids as those posts were set up in the countryside to the east and up on the Dutch border. Remi had an interest in all thing technical so this was his way of contributing to the defences and get inspiration which would be published post war as his scetches during the War was classified.

Single RN light Warships would usually be present in the port and on the waterway leading to the Channel aiding Airdefences though these would be target of Luftwaffe attacks. Sometimes French Navy units would be seen taking part in that too. This further strained the Dutch neutrality.

The Airdefences and Airraid warning units had had plenty experience since the 25 October 1939 though usually numbers of attackers hadn't been really large perhaps a Gruppe (12-48 aircraft) of Bombers escorted during day by some Squadrons of Fighters.
By night usually only Bombers though some fighters might lurk in the dark skies to pick off interceptors.
The RAF Fighter Squadrons if available also took part in the airdefences along their other duties on the front line.

[stevep]

Mar 1, 2024 9:06:15 GMT 575 said:

Antwerp
Since the German attack on Belgium 25 October 1939 and subsequent WAllied advance into the country the British Expeditionary Force and RAF Expeditionary Force had been building up Antwerp port as the supply hub. It had eased the transport of equipment though still the Channel Ports and Brest would be used for transport of personnel to not unsettle the neutrality of the Dutch.

Antwerp was a large port but it was also situated behind the Dutch border to the west where the Schelt River that crossed through Antwerp and then entered Dutch Zeeland Province before emptying into the North Sea.
To use the port for supplies the British had had quite some negotiations with the Dutch Government as RN ships would only be allowed passage of the waterway as single ships not in formations. Merchantmen had escaped restrictions though the Dutch had been rather worried about the whole arrangement. Not to say that the Germans had protested it but since no troops were transported arrangements had been made which had the Dutch put a blind eye to recurrent Luftwaffe violations of Dutch airspace; violations that the Dutch Army Airforce did intercept and had become better at with the recent adoption of the Fokker G-1 as the new standard fighter aircraft – faster and better armed than the Fokker D-XXI which had been crated and shipped off to bolster the defences of the NEI.
These negotiations had made for Germany via the Netherlands been allowed to import some goods that might potentially end up in Germany having been part of industrial process in the Netherlands. One of these goods was oil from the NEI – not exceeding pre-War amounts but then the Dutch had oil ration so some might go to Germany.

The port however was important as it was thé major Belgian port and the country needed it for its imports which had been off negotiations though not to offend Germany regarding Dutch neutrality had to be kept at pre-War level.
To some it was such a convoluted arrangement that would only happen in Wartime – like in another reality where the Soviet Union and Germany were at war and the USA and Japan at war but USA anyway supplying the Soviet Union by shipping going around the Japanese islands - and really shouldn't; but it was one of Europe's major ports and too good not to use to carry supplies in quatity to the BEF and so show the Belgiens that the WAllies wouldn't desert them.

As Antwerp like the French border cities such as Strassbourg, Sedan and Metz and Channel Ports at Oostende, Belgium, Dunquerque, Calais and Boulogne at times had been attacked by German bombers; thus and because of its use as a British Supply hub quite a number of AA-batteries had been set up as had a Radar site to scan the surrounds for German Aircraft approaching the city and port.
Several Belgians had been assigned to support the BEF at Antwerp mostly with damage control parties but also in low-level airraid warning units.
Among these a cartoonist George Remi who would serve with a airraid low-level warning unit which kept him out of the city generally during airraids as those posts were set up in the countryside to the east and up on the Dutch border. Remi had an interest in all thing technical so this was his way of contributing to the defences and get inspiration which would be published post war as his scetches during the War was classified.

Single RN light Warships would usually be present in the port and on the waterway leading to the Channel aiding Airdefences though these would be target of Luftwaffe attacks. Sometimes French Navy units would be seen taking part in that too. This further strained the Dutch neutrality.

The Airdefences and Airraid warning units had had plenty experience since the 25 October 1939 though usually numbers of attackers hadn't been really large perhaps a Gruppe (12-48 aircraft) of Bombers escorted during day by some Squadrons of Fighters.
By night usually only Bombers though some fighters might lurk in the dark skies to pick off interceptors.
The RAF Fighter Squadrons if available also took part in the airdefences along their other duties on the front line.

  Given what we know is coming its the calm before the storm.  Hopefully Remi makes it through OK.

[575]

The bombing of Antwerp
The German offensive having ground to a halt Hitler had raged in OKW of the inability of the Armed Services to get moving.
Late at night Göring had promised Hitler that Luftwaffe would destroy Antwerp port facilities and drive the Belgian dock and railway workers from the place to leave it waste. Göring would however need a few weeks preparations – not that the defences of Antwerp wasn't known to Luftwaffe but to assemble incendiary bombs in numbers so as to set the place ablaze.
Hitler was satisfied.

A late June evening before nightfall Airraid units of the Allied Armies in Belgium detected quite large airunits moving from Northwest Germany towards Belgium. It seemed some had crossed the Dutch border at Maastricht continueing west; another large group circuiting the Dutch coast to approach from the North Sea though this was thought to be a way of dragging No. 11 Group of British Airdefences that would also respond to Luftwaffe attacks on Channel Ports to it and thus keep it off defending Antwerp.

The first attack was carried out by two Groups of 90 Bombers escorted by almost 200 Messerschmitt Bf-109 fighters to keep interceptors off.
The majority of the Bombers did get through and the Allied interceptors went back to bases to refuel only to see their reserve taking off as another German attack wave crossed the frontlines and made for Antwerp. This was the first incendiary raid of 200 bombers which were to be followed by another two smaller ones but it didn't matter. Antwerp did burn though the railroad yard was less damaged than expected not much was to arrive that way at the moment.
The next evening it all repeated. And the next and the next.
Population did suffer badly as Belgium even with her large Army had been poorly prepared for war and certainly not of this kind which had quickly overwhelmed the Firebrigade. Even the Royal Engineers present couldn't prevent the devastation.

It is thought that the burning of Antwerp was the reason of the fundamental change of George Remi's cartoons from being optimist and full of technical progression; post war it became dark and negative though some viewed this development as the maturing of the author.

The Dutch afterwards presented a protest to the German Minister to the Hague though this only informed his host that ”when the Elephants fight the grass gets trodden down”.
The shipwrecks at Antwerp port and in the Schelt Canal certainly made it difficult to reopen the waterway to shipping; which latter also made for a Dutch protest to which the German Minister answered that those ships must have tried to leave port after being hit and then sunk in the canal.
The Dutch kept protesting though less vigorously.

Pablo Picasso seeing newspaper pictures in Paris of the devastation of Antwerp painted ”another Guernica”.

[575]

The firebombing of Antwerp made for much discussion in the Allied War Council – with retaliatory attacks being strongly argued by British First Lord of the Admiralty W Churchill. The French argued for restraint but the followup by Luftwaffe of bombing Sedan, Strassbourg and Metz in like manner changed the French outlook.

The French government was still awaiting deliveries of US LB-30 bomber/reconnaisance/transport aircraft to launch a reat Strategic Bombing campaign so urged Bregeut and Bloch Aircraft Manufacturers to prioritized their Breguet 482 and Bloch MB162 4 engine strategic bomber prototypes.
The Breguet developed from first flight just prior to outbreak of war and followed by early 1940 of the Bloch. Engine troubles of the Breguet made for a shift to Gnome-Rhone radials 14N.
Troubles that had also made a stall of further development of the Dewoitine D520 as the Hispano-Suiza 12Z was to be used in that too and made for a belated French yes please to use the RR Merlin in that airframe even without the moteurcanon – though with a want to shift to H-S once the issues had been eked out and with main production line running still on the H-S 12Y which was adequete and not to divert too much RR production to France.
Troubles that the Bloch 162 had been free off as it had from the outset used the Gnome-Rhone engines which had given it an early advantage getting into production.

There was of course also a diplomatic aftermath of Antwerp bombing as German aircraft had been violating Dutch airspace to approach Antwerp and then fleeing WAllied interceptors with a number being shot down over the Netherlands; of course to observe neutrality and not trigger a German invasion the Dutch also send notes to the WAllied Powers condemming the violation of Ducth airspace during the fighting.
The Dutch were offering firefighters to go the Antwerp to aid the Belgians in suppressing the fires as well as offering some humanitarian aid. Which the Belgians very much appreciated.
With the Luftwaffe seen intensifying bombings of French cities the Dutch wasn't too outspoken which were understood by the WAllies but of course critizised.

The Luftwaffe shifting to heavy bombings of Metz, Strassbourg, Colmar, Mulhouse, Sedan was still a drain on Luftwaffe resources as it was still having problems of fuel supplies mainly because of slow resupply of reserves that had been almost emptied during the long Winter campaign.

Breguet 482

Bloch 162:

[575]

The WAllied Airforces began planning retaliatory air attacks on German Strategic targets including such situated in cities be these port ones or inland. Regarding the possibility of providing Fighter escort for Bombers in daylight raids it was immediately realized that the WAllies possessed that already – the Dewoitine D520 with a range of 1250 km/780mi made even Berlin a target! (twice that of the Messerschmitt Bf-109E)
Planning continued from this and Dewoitine asked to develop means to extend the range.

Not realized at the moment the need of pairing French fighters with British bombers was a blessing as it forced both Airforces to seek out crews that could communicate during operations as both found their language to be the superior one and as during early operations the language barrier had accounted for no small difficulties.
The language barrier also had to be overcome at planning and ground units execution of missions which though already had the benefit of joint airdefences having been carried out for almost 8 months – which had been an exercise in getting things running smoothly. Thus due to RAF main running of early interception of Luftwaffe attacks the French pilots had adopted a lot of RAF lingo making things easier; with the British Bombers crews not being quite as well suited to chat in the Franclais as RAF Radar crews or French Fighter pilots.

[575]

Mussolini and Hitler had met at the Brenner Pass on 18 March 1940 during which meeting Mussolini had promised to march along Hitler when time was due. With the set-backs in Belgium and WAllied airattacks on German Industry and Ports Hitler remind Mussolini of this which Mussolini doesn't answer.
Also Spanish Dictator Franco decline any talks of participation in the War on the side of Germany – a message already having been delivered to Quay d'Orsy during Winter when the German attack had been stopped in Belgium which had relieved the French of watching the Spanish border with large numbers of troops.

[stevep]

Mar 7, 2024 8:34:18 GMT 575 said:

Mussolini and Hitler had met at the Brenner Pass on 18 March 1940 during which meeting Mussolini had promised to march along Hitler when time was due. With the set-backs in Belgium and WAllied airattacks on German Industry and Ports Hitler remind Mussolini of this which Mussolini doesn't answer.
Also Spanish Dictator Franco decline any talks of participation in the War on the side of Germany – a message already having been delivered to Quay d'Orsy during Winter when the German attack had been stopped in Belgium which had relieved the French of watching the Spanish border with large numbers of troops.

  The big question here might be does Mussolini simply hunker down or possibly think to play in the Balkans while the allies are busy with Germany?  If he tries a move against Greece or Yugoslavia what is the response of the western powers - intervene or decide that must turn a blind eye while Hitler ties up so many resources.  Also without a pro-Italian Germany dominating the region what do other Balkan powers do?  Hungary or possibly Bulgaria might support such an Italian move as they want a share of the spoils - but only if their certain of an Italian victory so possibly not immediately and an Hungarian move could prompt opposition from Romania as well.  That could get very messy.