What if the German western campaign of 1940 does not invade or occupy Netherlands?

[stevep]

Nov 1, 2023 11:26:06 GMT 575 said:

As during WWI the Netherlands as other neutrals like the Scandinavians would to some extend be regarded by the Germans as a source of clandestine import of war necessities.
During WWI the Germans decided not to enter the Netherlands as it would have a negative effect upon their ability to wage war - looked up this and this regarding WWI.
The situation in Europe WWII is different as Nazi-Germany still have the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for war necessities. Still it made a trade deal with Denmark which enabled that country to continue trading with BOTH Nazi-Germany and Britain - which had also been the case during WWI. At least untill German occupation.
The Contraband in terms of Law of War was still adhered to in principle though upon approval of bellingerents.
Thus the Dutch as the Scandinavian will enjoy as long as possible overseas trade.
What might hold the Nazi-Germans off entering the Netherlands as well as Scandinavia - and they DIDN'T invade Sweden during WWII - might well be the access to the industrial capacity of those nations to literally function as Germany's. Which of course would be attempted barred by the WAllies but with primary import of rawmaterials to Germany secondary export to the Netherlands and Scandinavia for processing to the prestage of weaponizing which could take place in Germany upon re-import would ease the strain on German industry which actually wasn't fully mobilized at this point. Which You all well are awar of.

SO: Nazi-Germany will try get the minor neutrals supplying it with Agricultural as well as Industrial output to continue the war just as it will be dealing with Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, Francoist Spain, Salazarian Portugal (though he may know to guard his back regarding Britain) as well as the Balkans and Turkey.

The Nazi's could be disregarding ideology IF it suited them as the Deportation of the Danish Jews showed in contrast to the rest of Occupied Europe.

How that will influenze the Dutch European Position - I'd still venture a WWI like position and I don't think of German occupation as an automatic.
Regarding the Dutch Overseas Position - THAT will be much dependant upon WAllied and US position vis-a-vis Japan. I'd still expect a Dutch continued sale of Oil as in regard to the European situation the NEI will need its Military strengthned without the possibility with the motherland being unable also in this position to move its produced Fighter Aircraft (Fokker D-XXI) to NEI and will for this use income to locally up-arm from USA. That of course will at some point put the Dutch and US at loggerheads with the Dutch complaining of not being able to make itself able to defend the NEI because the US and WAllies deny it the income to do so. A way out could be France buying the NEI Oil.
When the situation in the Far East changes I don't know but as long as France is alive and stopping the Germans in Belgium Japan is not going to move on its possessions in FIC.

Similarly I don't see the British "protecting" Dutch colonial possessions in the Caribbean - there's oil too and Britain would like access to it.

My wiev is of course fogged as I've only barely had the Germans invade Belgium and Northern France and being held there with the WAllies doing better. Will see where it take me.

  575,

  While this thread was triggered by discussion on the Germany invades in autumn 1939 this one asks what happens if Germany strikes west in spring 1940 [i.e. OTL] but doesn't go through the Netherlands.  As such its not assuming that the Germans get stopped in Belgium/NE France and I think raharris1973, is assuming that Belgium and France falls as OTL but that since the Netherlands aren't invaded in 1940 what happens then.

  Steve

[575]

Nov 1, 2023 15:42:24 GMT stevep said:

Nov 1, 2023 11:26:06 GMT 575 said:

As during WWI the Netherlands as other neutrals like the Scandinavians would to some extend be regarded by the Germans as a source of clandestine import of war necessities.
During WWI the Germans decided not to enter the Netherlands as it would have a negative effect upon their ability to wage war - looked up this and this regarding WWI.
The situation in Europe WWII is different as Nazi-Germany still have the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact for war necessities. Still it made a trade deal with Denmark which enabled that country to continue trading with BOTH Nazi-Germany and Britain - which had also been the case during WWI. At least untill German occupation.
The Contraband in terms of Law of War was still adhered to in principle though upon approval of bellingerents.
Thus the Dutch as the Scandinavian will enjoy as long as possible overseas trade.
What might hold the Nazi-Germans off entering the Netherlands as well as Scandinavia - and they DIDN'T invade Sweden during WWII - might well be the access to the industrial capacity of those nations to literally function as Germany's. Which of course would be attempted barred by the WAllies but with primary import of rawmaterials to Germany secondary export to the Netherlands and Scandinavia for processing to the prestage of weaponizing which could take place in Germany upon re-import would ease the strain on German industry which actually wasn't fully mobilized at this point. Which You all well are awar of.

SO: Nazi-Germany will try get the minor neutrals supplying it with Agricultural as well as Industrial output to continue the war just as it will be dealing with Soviet Union, Fascist Italy, Francoist Spain, Salazarian Portugal (though he may know to guard his back regarding Britain) as well as the Balkans and Turkey.

The Nazi's could be disregarding ideology IF it suited them as the Deportation of the Danish Jews showed in contrast to the rest of Occupied Europe.

How that will influenze the Dutch European Position - I'd still venture a WWI like position and I don't think of German occupation as an automatic.
Regarding the Dutch Overseas Position - THAT will be much dependant upon WAllied and US position vis-a-vis Japan. I'd still expect a Dutch continued sale of Oil as in regard to the European situation the NEI will need its Military strengthned without the possibility with the motherland being unable also in this position to move its produced Fighter Aircraft (Fokker D-XXI) to NEI and will for this use income to locally up-arm from USA. That of course will at some point put the Dutch and US at loggerheads with the Dutch complaining of not being able to make itself able to defend the NEI because the US and WAllies deny it the income to do so. A way out could be France buying the NEI Oil.
When the situation in the Far East changes I don't know but as long as France is alive and stopping the Germans in Belgium Japan is not going to move on its possessions in FIC.

Similarly I don't see the British "protecting" Dutch colonial possessions in the Caribbean - there's oil too and Britain would like access to it.

My wiev is of course fogged as I've only barely had the Germans invade Belgium and Northern France and being held there with the WAllies doing better. Will see where it take me.

  575 ,

  While this thread was triggered by discussion on the Germany invades in autumn 1939 this one asks what happens if Germany strikes west in spring 1940 [i.e. OTL] but doesn't go through the Netherlands.  As such its not assuming that the Germans get stopped in Belgium/NE France and I think raharris1973 , is assuming that Belgium and France falls as OTL but that since the Netherlands aren't invaded in 1940 what happens then.

  Steve

Oi, my bad - You're right. Well at least I got something researched for mi own thread.

Though anyway my observations are still valid to some degree.. though there is not much to hold the Japanese back.

[stevep]

Nov 1, 2023 18:11:12 GMT 575 said:

Nov 1, 2023 15:42:24 GMT stevep said:

  575 ,

  While this thread was triggered by discussion on the Germany invades in autumn 1939 this one asks what happens if Germany strikes west in spring 1940 [i.e. OTL] but doesn't go through the Netherlands.  As such its not assuming that the Germans get stopped in Belgium/NE France and I think raharris1973 , is assuming that Belgium and France falls as OTL but that since the Netherlands aren't invaded in 1940 what happens then.

  Steve

Oi, my bad - You're right. Well at least I got something researched for mi own thread.

Though anyway my observations are still valid to some degree.. though there is not much to hold the Japanese back.

  No problem.  It can be a right pain at time trying to remember what's been said - and being discussed - on different threads.  Especially when they cover a popular subject like WWII.