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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 2, 2023 5:40:51 GMT
So this is another one of the TLs that I wanted to write, though 'Rogue Generals' will be updated at some point. Right now, I'll take my aim at writing a TL centered around the Philippine-American War and beyond. El Camino de la Sangre is translated to as "The Road of Blood", which is an indication of a Philippine-American War with Antonio Luna living a lot longer. So here's the Prologue, and see if it's a good try.
Keep in mind that this TL might be written in the same format as Rogue Generals, unless I can find a different style to suit this new TL.
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Prologue - One Lucky Shot
"We reached this river that the locals called Marilao after waiting for General Lawton's troops to arrive, which took a few days, as our men needed some rest after winning a battle against these Filipino soldiers led by this one crazy general who lived up to his name. Well, once we started to advance into the river banks, one of the other soldiers pointed at the recently detonated bridge that our enemies had blown up, just so they can delay our advance. However, our repeated attempts to fix the bridge had met with such difficulty that General Hale had to call in the gunboats to stop the Filipino soldiers from attacking our engineers that were trying to fix the damaged bridges, but to no avail. We continued to suffer significant amount of casualties, even as the Philippine Army continued to bleed itself on the battlefield. Suddenly, one of the officers whose name I had forgotten, had requested for ten men to move a bit further east, to see if there is another opening that the enemy had neglected. I volunteered to go, along with nine other men, including that Private who single handedly triggered that conflict we're fighting right now. An hour later, the ten of us had managed to navigate through the jungle straddling the Marilao River, until we reached the river bend that resembled a bulge. After keeping an eye out for enemy patrols for another hour or so, we were ordered to swim across, but we had to do it silently, while gunfire was being exchanged. Luckily, another soldier called Corporal Carrigan, had knifed a lone sentry before he was about to warn his comrades in arms, allowing us to establish a beachhead on the opposite side of the Marilao. When we were confident enough to see that no other enemy patrols have advanced, we managed to position ourselves within the bushes. Another Private wanted to swim back to tell the main force that we've secured enough territory to advance, but I advised against it. By the time the rest of our guys started to advance, the enemy began to slowly retreat while we continued our silent advance. When Corporal Carrigan pointed out the location of the enemy general, I slowly hid behind another bush and aimed my Krak-Jorgensen rifle at him. I pulled the trigger, and the enemy general clutched his throat as he started to choke on his own blood.(1) That was when the rest of the men in my squad burst out of the bushes and fired their volleys at the enemy. I could see three Filipino soldiers panicking as they called out for their medics to grab the enemy general, but Corporal Carrigan shot one enemy medic while our men firing the Gatling gun had mowed down the remaining enemy soldiers. I wish I could say that it was a turkey shoot, but the general that I shot in the throat was indeed a skilled leader. It was only when we arrived at the town called Caloocan that General Irving Haye had summoned me and the rest of the men in my squad. At first, he berated my squad for acting so recklessly before congratulating us for taking out their enemy general. As it turned out, the enemy general happened to be their President. I could not believe it. I didn't know that the enemy general that was facing our forces is also leading his country to war against us. I didn't know it at that time, but the conflict between the United States and the Philippines had just turned a bit darker." Corporal Henry Kewell, 1st South Dakota Infantry.
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Excerpts from "The Bloody History of 20th Century America"
by: Magnus Leifsson
Lund University Printing Press
Chapter Two: Insurgencies and Hidden Controversies
The first stage of the Philippine-American War had been triggered by an American Army reconnaissance unit's foray into enemy territory on the Marilao River, where the now famous Charge Across the Marilao had taken place. The event would begin with Corporal Henry Kewell's successful shot that killed Philippine President Emilio Aguinaldo, who personally took command of the Philippine Army. With their president dead, the US Army would begin the massive crossing of the Marilao River and would succeed in taking control of the northern bank of said river. Yet, what the American forces did not know was that capturing the President of the First Philippine Republic could have shortened the war. With Aguinaldo's death, the conflict between the two countries was about to turn extremely dark indeed. Meanwhile, the Philippine leadership grew nervous at the emerging power vacuum that has taken shape, and to help stave off such a disaster, the civilian government now had to turn to a controversial and hotheaded general named Antonio Luna. General Luna, who was often portrayed as an angry, hot blooded warrior, had imposed his conditions upon the civilian half of the Philippine government. Among his conditions were that a unified and centralized Chief of Staff would be created and staffed by officers of his own choosing. Additionally, the infamous Article One of Luna's military law was now implemented nation wide, punishing soldiers who disobeyed orders with summary execution. Finally, Luna's plan of a northern redoubt would be implemented as a means of dragging the United States military into a protracted guerrilla war, as he knew that the Americans have a military advantage over the Filipinos. Moreover, one of his trusted Lieutenants, a certain Paco Roman, would be appointed the head of logistics. Paco Roman, along with Mariano Llanera and Manuel Tinio, would play a role in an incident that would poison the relationship between the United States and an emerging Asian imperial power in Japan.
General Luna knew that in order to lure the Americans into the mountain redoubt of northern Luzon, he had to plan on building a series of trenches and fortifications that would slow the American advance. (2) Starting in the province of Bulacan, where the town of Baliuag now stands, was the site of the first line of defense. a second line of defense would run from the western coast of Luzon, from the town of Iba, through the town of Mabalacat, into Gapan and Dingalan. Finally, a third line of defense would run from the town of Dasol, through Bayambang, Guimba, Talavera, and into the town of Baler, which was the site of the 1898-99 Siege of Baler that was fought between the Filipino revolutionaries and a Spanish Army that did not receive the news of their country's defeat to the United States in the Spanish-American War. The largest defensive redoubt ever built before the 1960s was located in what is now the Autonomous Province of Cordillera, which was inhabited by various tribes, such as the Ibanags and Igorots. Inside that mountainous redoubt, Luna had issued written instructions to all of his troops to dig additional trenches around the redoubt, as well as a makeshift headquarters, a crude infirmary, and ammunition depots. At the same time, a Japanese freight ship called the Nunobiki Maru had been delayed by the tropical storms reported by authorities based in Japanese-controlled Taiwan, forcing known silviculturist Yaroku Nakamura to push back the departure of the Nunobiki Maru to sometime in August of 1899, when the storms would subside. (3) The delay in departure had not been intentional, but at the very least Nakamura was able to use extra funds he had from his lumber venture to purchase an additional 5,000 of the newly developed and produced Type 30 Arisaka Rifle, despite the protests of one Colonel Nariakira Arisaka, who insisted on keeping that powerful rifle as a primary weapon of the Imperial Japanese Army. When the Nunobiki Maru finally left Nagasaki on August 9, 1899, it opted to sail on a different path instead, sailing along the Ryukyu Islands in case the ship developed engine troubles. Though the journey was rather long (plus both Mariano Ponce and Llanera were aboard the ship), they finally succeeded in landing in Karenko Prefecture. A week later, another freight ship had landed in Karenko Prefecture, this time carrying over 300 Japanese ultranationalist volunteers seeking to fight alongside the Filipino revolutionaries.
By the time the two Japanese freight ships had landed in the town of Aparri, much of the cargo had already been unloaded, but only five hours after the Nunobiki Maru had landed in Aparri, three vessels belonging to the US Navy had arrived in Aparri to inspect the arrival of the two Japanese freight ships. When one American naval officer pointed out at the suspicious packages, the Japanese volunteers aimed their weapons at the naval officer, prompting the US Navy sailors aboard the USS Monadnock to fire their shot at them, triggering a skirmish. Just before the last cargo was loaded, the USS Monadnock would fire its cannons at the two Japanese ships, dealing a significant damage to the vessels, and inadvertently killing Mariano Ponce while he was attempting to leave the ship after a short stop in the bathroom. The sinking of the Nunobiki Maru became a source of hostile tensions between Japan and the United States, and was one of the reasons why it refused to join the emerging pact between various western nations when the Boxer Rebellion broke out. Consequently, Japanese ultranationalists would begin to covertly back the Boxers as a way of destabilizing the Qing Dynasty much further to justify additional military intervention in China, independent from the other Western powers. The Appari Incident of September of 1899 had also garnered protests and demonstrations within the American public, wondering as to why the United States had gotten involved in a shooting war in a continent that they had no vital interest in, but President William McKinley was able to justify the incident as a necessary measure in order to prevent third parties from interfering in what he called a 'civilizational affair', and even pointed to the death of Emilio Aguinaldo as an example of how America can win the war in the Philippines, much to the confusion and horror of his opponents. William Jennings Bryan, McKinley's opponent in the 1900 US Presidential Election, would cite the war in the Philippines as a war driven solely by the conquest of the Asian markets that would be open to American businessmen. However, both McKinley and Bryan agreed that an emerging Asian power like Japan would be a source of danger for the European imperial powers, as it can incite the predominantly colored races of Africa and the rest of Asia to rebel against their respective colonial masters.
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Excerpts from "The South African Ulcer: Britain and the Boer Nightmare"
by: Hendryk Mulder
Springbok Publishing Company, released on July 2016
Chapter Two: Preparations for a Long War
When British Prime Minister Robert Gascoyne-Cecil, also known as Lord Salisbury, had learned of the growing tensions between the British colonial authorities based in the Cape Colony and the two Boer Republic in April of 1899, he feared that war would break out. Even though he had grown to detest the jingoists and the pro-war faction within the British parliament, he knew that the prestige of the British Empire was at stake. At the same time, he feared that the British Army was not up to the challenge of taking on what was essentially an inferior opponent with cunning tactics and modernized weaponry that was acquired from foreign powers. For example, the army of the Transvaal Republic only had 12,000 prior to the outbreak of the Second Boer War, but they managed to receive over 32,000 Mauser rifles from the German Empire, along with the millions of ammunition needed. Though the other Boer entity, the Orange Free State had a smaller number of commandos under its command, it compensated with its strategy of quick redeployment in smaller numbers, should the situation demand for such a thing. In contrast, the British Army was equipped with the Lee-Metford rifles, though its eventual successor in the Lee-Enfield rifle was only adopted in 1895 as the standard issue weapon. While Lord Salisbury was squeamish about the prospect of war with the two Boer republics, his political opponents in the center and left, Sir Henry Campbell-Bannerman of the Liberal Party and Keir Hardie of the Labour Representation Committee, were a bit more open of their support for the war in South Africa. Campbell-Bannerman believed in the idea of free trade, and his proposal of an eventual integration of the two Boer republics into the Cape Colony went well with turning southern Africa into the center of mineral extraction and eventual trading hub for Britain's commercial trade in the Southern Hemisphere and Australia in general. Keir Hardie on the other hand, was more interested in punishing the Boer Republics for their brutal treatment of the indigenous African population, though they were also reminded of the earlier British conflicts with the same indigenous Xhosa and Zulu tribes of South Africa.
When the two leaders of their respective republics met in May of 1899 for negotiations, the British government decided to deploy over 200,000 troops from Britain proper, with additional calls on its colonies to provide their own colonial soldiers to South Africa. Moreover, the governor of the Cape Colony, Sir Alfred Milner, had requested to the British government for permission to set up a small manufacturing base within the Cape Colony to ease up on the logistics that might become strained in the event of war with the two Boer republics. However, the outbreak of the conflict between Britain and the two Boer republics in October of 1899 had delayed the British government's answer to his request, resulting in a few logistical defects that the British Army suffered. On the other hand, the two Boer republics were hampered by a lack of a unified chief of staff, which the British military had. Furthermore, the generals of those republics could not communicate with each other because of different strategies and also because President Martinus Steyn of the Orange Free State had refused to merge the OFS commandos with that of the Transvaal Republic. Realizing that any hopes of besieging major cities would be suicidal due to the larger number of British soldiers and materiel, General Piet Cronje had decided to launch an attack on a smaller town, east of the Transvaal Republic. That target was Charlestown, in what is now the KwaZulu Province of South Africa (4). Thus, the Battle of Charlestown of October 21, 1899, would begin. Despite both Britain and the two Boer Republics' promise to not involve non-whites in their conflict, the Transvaal commandos would run into a Zulu ambush in the first few hours of the battle. Furious at the Zulu raids on the commando positions on the border with the Zululand province, General Koos de la Rey, the hero of the Battle of Kraaipan, would order over 900 commandos to chase after the Zulu raiders, precipitating in what would become the Lake Slangrivier Massacre, when over 3,800 Zulu civilians were massacred by the Boer commandos. Unfortunately, that incident would be used by the British government as a propaganda piece to present themselves as the more civilized power that would put an end to the cruelty of the Africans, despite their own brand of racism. The detour into Lake Slangrivier did however, enable the Transvaal Republic to expand their territory a bit eastward into that lake, giving them a breathing room to surround Charlestown, though by now, the British realized what the Boers were up to.
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"The complications related to the dying Guangxu Emperor's nephritis had been one of the main reasons for his sudden death on November 9, 1899. Though the Guangxu Emperor's health had declined after the collapse of the 1898 Hundred Days' Reform, there were rumors that Empress Dowager Cixi had orchestrated the intensification of said emperor's declining health. It was not after his death in 1899 that the Qing Dynasty was confronted with the horrific reality of a succession crisis. Initially, Cixi had her eye on the son of Prince Duan, Pujun. However, as the Guangxu Emperor had failed to name an heir to the throne, combined with his impotency, the throne of the Qing Dynasty was soon up for grabs. Fearing a destabilization on its northern borders, the Qing nobility also had to deal with the emerging Boxer Rebellion. Cixi would then throw her support behind Pujun's claim on the throne, while another one of the late Guangxu Emperor's consorts, Imperial Noble Consort Keshun (5), had opted to ally herself with a faction supporting the claim of Prince Puwei. In what was to become the Qing Succession Crisis of 1899-1900, a civil war was inevitable, as supporters of Prince Pujun would consist of the ultra-reactionaries that were allied to Empress Dowager Cixi. In contrast, the supporters of Prince Puwei's claim on the throne consisted of Cixi's opponents centered around Imperial Noble Consort Keshun first, who were eventually joined by the founder of the organization Baohuang Hui, Kang Youwei. Though the supporters of Prince Pujun (who took the era name of the Guoliang Emperor) had the advantage of the loyalty of the main Qing armies, supporters of Prince Puwei (who would take the era name of the Yongnian Emperor) had few international connections that they could rely on. For instance, the headquarters of Baohuang Hui in Victoria, British Columbia, had served as the center of the overseas Chinese community in the Canadian Pacific coast, and it was where other opponents of Cixi had gathered. Although Baohuang Hui had become a popular movement outside China, its main weakness lies with the conflicting interests of several members. For instance, the lingering ethnic hostilities between the Mongols and the Chinese lingered after the Jindandao Massacre of 1891 had occurred, with the Chinese committing a series of genocides against the Mongol population of Inner Mongolia, especially the areas controlled by the Mongol banners. The massacre occurred in 1891 had galvanized much of the Mongol population towards the idea of Mongolian independence from the Qing, though they were open to the idea of a semi-autonomous status within the Qing Empire. Yet, several Outer Mongolian leaders were opposed to the idea of a semi-autonomous status within the Qing Empire, as the Manchu rulers wanted to resettle more Han Chinese peasants inside the entirety of the Mongol lands as a security measure against further Russian encroachment on Chinese territory. Among them, Prince Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren, a distant descendant of Genghis Khan, had not only opposed to the idea of Han Chinese settlement inside Inner Mongolia, but Outer Mongolia as well. Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren would eventually emerge as one of the key leading figures in the Mongolian independence movement, alongside the Inner Mongolian leader Bayantömöriin Khaisan. Most importantly, the Outer Mongol leader would travel to the Russian Empire, alongside other delegates and leaders of the Mongolian independence movement." From 'The Violent Death of the Qing Dynasty', released by History Legends Network Canada.
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"Bloody bokker! I could not believe my eyes when Jengo shouted some order for us to rush to where he had captured some bokker prisoner who escaped from Pretoria. We rushed through the roads and into Middelburg, where we heard a commotion. One of our brothers, whose name was Jaivyn Mulder, had dragged the bokker from his house and laid him before our feet. Jaivyn explained to us that a few hours ago, he and three other kommandos had also captured an Engelsman named John Howard, who owned a coal mine within that vicinity. He was about to return home after fleeing from a makeshift camp where we kept other Engelsmen like him under our captivity. After we killed that bastard, we simply took over his house and allowed a family of five to settle in there. We didn't realize that the bokker that Jaivyn caught was some son of a noble family. I guess that he was probably spoiled as hell too, given his clean looking face. Given that this son of a nobleman was too scared to get out of the house, we elected to bring him inside that house and Jaivyn became the captor to that Engelsman. However, being a desperate idiot that he is, he stole some clothes that was owned by that Howard fellow, and changed outside. Luckily, my friend Bash heard the twig snapped and we aimed our Mausers at him. He looked for an opening and ran into the bushes when I started to fire my rifle at him. Several more gunshots were heard, before Jaivyn aimed his own rifle, a Krag-Jorgensen model of all things, at the shadow. He pulled the trigger, and the bokker fell down on the ground. We rushed through the bushes and into a small clearing inside the forest, as that bokker coughed up some blood. Not wanting to make him suffer any further, Bash volunteered to put him out of misery. He aimed his prized Colt revolver at the poor bokker's head and finished him off. We dug a small hole to bury him in, and shook our heads at his foolish mistake. It was not until after Black Week that General Botha arrived at Middelburg with the rest of the kommandos that we told him the story of the bokker we captured. General Botha, to our surprise, didn't scream at us for being such idiots, but he immediately learned from one of the POW camp wardens the name of the bokker we had under our captivity. We only heard of the surname, and it was weird. What kind of a name is it when you have a church on a hill?" Kommando Friedrich Wessels, on the tragic story of a British POW who was captured in Middelburg, December of 1899.
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(1) The PoD. IOTL, Emilio Aguinaldo commanded the army for the first and only time during the Philippine-American War. Here, he is shot by a lucky American soldier, which results in the Philippine government scrambling for a successor.
(2) General Luna's original war plans that he proposed to the Philippine government, but was not carried out until Aguinaldo and his cabinet ministers had to flee from Malolos IOTL. Without Aguinaldo, Luna has a more leeway in carrying out his war plans.
(3) IOTL, the Nunobiki Maru was sunk in July of 1899 off the Taiwanese coast. This time around, a slight delay in the departure time ensures that the Murata rifles are safely delivered to the Philippine Army.
(4) Charlestown in South Africa is much smaller and a bit easier to control than say, Ladysmith or Mafeking, though the Boers would still struggle against the British. It's only a matter of how bloody is the struggle.
(5) Imperial Noble Consort Keshun was drowned on Cixi's orders IOTL. Here, with an earlier death of the Guangxu Emperor due to his complications centered around the kidneys, Keshun gets lucky and avoids her OTL death. However, a succession crisis, coupled with the inevitable Boxer Rebellion, might end badly for China.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,867 
Likes: 13,253
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Post by stevep on Nov 2, 2023 22:45:20 GMT
Interesting and from the British point of view your getting rid of Churchill will have both good and bad impacts on Britain - and the world's future.
Sounds like its going to be a much bloodier occupation of the Philippines and probably a longer and bloodier 2nd Boer War along with civil war in China. The other two combats will impact on both Britain and the US's ability to intervene in China although given the latter's importance to British trade - plus not wanting Russia to have too free an hand I would expect that Britain will find forces.
Is this shift towards a more xenophobic stance going to be lasting in Japan and will it stay primarily anti-western or become more general as OTL when the Japanese hated everybody including other East Asians. It would suggest there's going to be no Anglo-Japanese alliance here, which would have a big impact on Japan and the region and a lesser but significant one on British diplomacy and other aspects.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 2, 2023 23:02:46 GMT
Interesting and from the British point of view your getting rid of Churchill will have both good and bad impacts on Britain - and the world's future.
Sounds like its going to be a much bloodier occupation of the Philippines and probably a longer and bloodier 2nd Boer War along with civil war in China. The other two combats will impact on both Britain and the US's ability to intervene in China although given the latter's importance to British trade - plus not wanting Russia to have too free an hand I would expect that Britain will find forces.
Is this shift towards a more xenophobic stance going to be lasting in Japan and will it stay primarily anti-western or become more general as OTL when the Japanese hated everybody including other East Asians. It would suggest there's going to be no Anglo-Japanese alliance here, which would have a big impact on Japan and the region and a lesser but significant one on British diplomacy and other aspects.
The most immediate effects of killing off Churchill would be felt on the domestic front, as the Tonypandy Riots of 1910-11 would either be butterflied away or it would have a different outcome. I might end up setting a scenario where Lord Salisbury could somehow lose an election a lot earlier, and we may also end up seeing the necessity of developing a kind of manufacturing base in the colonies. Britain's victory in this version of the Second Boer War would be all but assured, but it would depend on how costly the victory would be, since the Boers might make smarter moves. However, the only question that I had was that why didn't Britain try to open up another front against the Transvaal Republic from their colony in Rhodesia? A two pronged attack from both the Cape Colony and Rhodesia would have actually shortened the conflict, and it would have proven to be extremely devastating for the Boer cause. I would probably say that it might be the Philippines that would be extremely traumatized by a longer war against the US, although the Americans wouldn't have it easy in this conflict as well, since now they have to deal with a general that ironically enough, they had a lot of respect for. In fact, OTL Antonio Luna's death had pretty much sealed the fate of the Philippines, since without a general that knows a bit more about military affairs than the other generals, it was only a matter of time before the OTL president (who is now dead, which was the PoD) was eventually captured. Look for the Philippines to develop its own strand of anti-imperialism that might be borderline Marxist. My guess is that almost the entirety of Asia might actually become far more anti-Western, though in the Prologue (and IOTL as well), there are hints of the Mongolian independence movement receiving some significant backing from Russia. Russia's reasoning for backing Mongolian independence was to acquire a buffer state against the Chinese. Another possible side effect of having a longer lasting Second Boer War would be that Britain would have to postpone or cancel their plans for the Tibetan Expedition, since those forces there, along with the colonial armies of the British Raj, will have to be used in a British intervention against both the Boxers, as well as the Succession Crisis between supporters of Prince Pujun and Prince Puwei. It would basically be the Wars of the Roses, but with modern weaponry, and a far larger population that is becoming extremely hostile to the ruling Manchu Qing Dynasty. On the other hand, we would still get a Dominion of Australia and a Dominion of New Zealand happening, plus a possible surviving Dominion of Newfoundland that practically acts as either the Northern Hemisphere version of New Zealand, or it becomes a direct part of the UK. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,867
Likes: 13,253
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Post by stevep on Nov 3, 2023 10:32:44 GMT
Interesting and from the British point of view your getting rid of Churchill will have both good and bad impacts on Britain - and the world's future.
Sounds like its going to be a much bloodier occupation of the Philippines and probably a longer and bloodier 2nd Boer War along with civil war in China. The other two combats will impact on both Britain and the US's ability to intervene in China although given the latter's importance to British trade - plus not wanting Russia to have too free an hand I would expect that Britain will find forces.
Is this shift towards a more xenophobic stance going to be lasting in Japan and will it stay primarily anti-western or become more general as OTL when the Japanese hated everybody including other East Asians. It would suggest there's going to be no Anglo-Japanese alliance here, which would have a big impact on Japan and the region and a lesser but significant one on British diplomacy and other aspects.
The most immediate effects of killing off Churchill would be felt on the domestic front, as the Tonypandy Riots of 1910-11 would either be butterflied away or it would have a different outcome. I might end up setting a scenario where Lord Salisbury could somehow lose an election a lot earlier, and we may also end up seeing the necessity of developing a kind of manufacturing base in the colonies. Britain's victory in this version of the Second Boer War would be all but assured, but it would depend on how costly the victory would be, since the Boers might make smarter moves. However, the only question that I had was that why didn't Britain try to open up another front against the Transvaal Republic from their colony in Rhodesia? A two pronged attack from both the Cape Colony and Rhodesia would have actually shortened the conflict, and it would have proven to be extremely devastating for the Boer cause. I would probably say that it might be the Philippines that would be extremely traumatized by a longer war against the US, although the Americans wouldn't have it easy in this conflict as well, since now they have to deal with a general that ironically enough, they had a lot of respect for. In fact, OTL Antonio Luna's death had pretty much sealed the fate of the Philippines, since without a general that knows a bit more about military affairs than the other generals, it was only a matter of time before the OTL president (who is now dead, which was the PoD) was eventually captured. Look for the Philippines to develop its own strand of anti-imperialism that might be borderline Marxist. My guess is that almost the entirety of Asia might actually become far more anti-Western, though in the Prologue (and IOTL as well), there are hints of the Mongolian independence movement receiving some significant backing from Russia. Russia's reasoning for backing Mongolian independence was to acquire a buffer state against the Chinese. Another possible side effect of having a longer lasting Second Boer War would be that Britain would have to postpone or cancel their plans for the Tibetan Expedition, since those forces there, along with the colonial armies of the British Raj, will have to be used in a British intervention against both the Boxers, as well as the Succession Crisis between supporters of Prince Pujun and Prince Puwei. It would basically be the Wars of the Roses, but with modern weaponry, and a far larger population that is becoming extremely hostile to the ruling Manchu Qing Dynasty. On the other hand, we would still get a Dominion of Australia and a Dominion of New Zealand happening, plus a possible surviving Dominion of Newfoundland that practically acts as either the Northern Hemisphere version of New Zealand, or it becomes a direct part of the UK.
Well OTL wasn't Mafeking a blocking position plus Rhodesia was pretty thinly settled at the time - by white settlers anyway - and I think was already largely self-governing as it had been pretty much a private venture by Rhodes and some of his partners so don't think there was a significant British force that far north.
The war could actually be shorter with those sizeable - massive for the time - British deployments being at least ordered before the Boers attack. OTL Britain deployed only ~350,000 in total during the conflict and most of them came after the initial set-backs and then again after the Boer surrender when assorted guerrilla groups carried on a hit and run campaign against British forces and civilians and it took a hell of a lot of effort to pin them down.
Definitely going to be traumatic for the Philippines, especially given how bloody the war was OTL for them. Which is likely to also have impacts on opinion in America. There was a lot of opposition to the invasion and occupation and its likely to be more marked here but sounds like the interventionists will double down on the opposition.
Japan can't go too anti-western because its still very dependent on western military technology, especially at sea and after being isolated after the war against China - being faced by a coalition of Germany, Russia and France and now clashing with the US its going to need some friends and the UK is again the best option by far here.
I would say Russia wants an independent Mongolia - do you include the Inner Mongolia region here which is now part of China and much richer than modern Mongolia - less as a buffer against a very weak China than as another source of influence in the region and possibly a step closer to dominating N China/Manchuria.
With China a lot will depend on what happens in the civil war, which will be complicated by the Boxer rebellion, which is still likely to occur, growing hostility to the Manchus and assorted foreign intervention.
In terms of Churchill 1910-11 is a long way ahead. There will be other impacts before then but you could well have a more tolerant social attitude to working class concerns, especially assuming that the Liberals come to power and Lloyd George becomes a significant player for them. The other obvious point could be without Churchill as 1st Lord of the Admiralty how will the naval race develop?
PS One other thing that comes to mind. Does Teddy Roosevelt's time as President get butterflied? He's in the headlines having pushed the war against Spain, then having retired from government duty to organise the Rough Riders and presumably been elected as Governor of New York. He was something of a controversial figure due to his radical ideas and while OTL was picked in part to balance the ticket its possible that he won't be selected as VP or probably more likely that McKinley doesn't get assassinated. If that doesn't happen then he may never have the top job or at least not until later. He had probably a bigger role in US politics than Churchill did in British politics before 1940 so there could be some substantial butterflies if he doesn't get the Presidency or simply it comes to him 4 or 8 years later say.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 4, 2023 4:33:36 GMT
Well OTL wasn't Mafeking a blocking position plus Rhodesia was pretty thinly settled at the time - by white settlers anyway - and I think was already largely self-governing as it had been pretty much a private venture by Rhodes and some of his partners so don't think there was a significant British force that far north.
The war could actually be shorter with those sizeable - massive for the time - British deployments being at least ordered before the Boers attack. OTL Britain deployed only ~350,000 in total during the conflict and most of them came after the initial set-backs and then again after the Boer surrender when assorted guerrilla groups carried on a hit and run campaign against British forces and civilians and it took a hell of a lot of effort to pin them down. It was indeed a blocking position, though the relief of Mafeking was at best a great British defensive action, and at worst, a Boer blunder. Why the blunder, is because the Boer commandos are essentially built as a guerrilla force, and attempting a siege would more likely suit a well equipped conventional army. On the other hand, I thought Rhodes himself would have been more open to the idea of tackling the danger that the Boers posed to southern Rhodesia, plus opening up another front from Rhodesia would have indeed shortened the war. We might actually see more colonial troops being used in the conflict against the Boers, especially the ones from Canada and Australia. That would be somewhat an additional 90,000 to 100,000 more colonial soldiers that will add up to the already present of 200,000 British soldiers already in South Africa plus a possible deployment of say, another 150,000 troops from the UK proper. Definitely going to be traumatic for the Philippines, especially given how bloody the war was OTL for them. Which is likely to also have impacts on opinion in America. There was a lot of opposition to the invasion and occupation and its likely to be more marked here but sounds like the interventionists will double down on the opposition.
Japan can't go too anti-western because its still very dependent on western military technology, especially at sea and after being isolated after the war against China - being faced by a coalition of Germany, Russia and France and now clashing with the US its going to need some friends and the UK is again the best option by far here. Let's not forget that the early 1900s was the apex of Western imperialism, so there might also be a push from the hardline pro-war faction for greater escalation of the conflict in the Philippines, which in itself would face more opposition from the anti-war faction. Of course, Japan would have to restrict its own anti-Western sentiment to be mainly anti-US, although there may be a slight chance that we could have a rapprochement between Britain and Germany. The only problems would be that Wilhelm II was reckless in his naval expansion, and Edward VII personally detested Wilhelm II. I would say Russia wants an independent Mongolia - do you include the Inner Mongolia region here which is now part of China and much richer than modern Mongolia - less as a buffer against a very weak China than as another source of influence in the region and possibly a step closer to dominating N China/Manchuria.
With China a lot will depend on what happens in the civil war, which will be complicated by the Boxer rebellion, which is still likely to occur, growing hostility to the Manchus and assorted foreign intervention. Most likely that Outer Mongolia would want Inner Mongolia to be included. Though Russia may not like the idea of a larger Mongolian state, due to its pan-Mongolic ideology that would be behind it, the civil war between the two claimants on the Qing throne might open a door to a larger Mongolian state expanding. However, Russia and Japan might also take advantage of this kind of chaos for their own purposes, as the Boxer Rebellion will be a bit more destructive. In terms of Churchill 1910-11 is a long way ahead. There will be other impacts before then but you could well have a more tolerant social attitude to working class concerns, especially assuming that the Liberals come to power and Lloyd George becomes a significant player for them. The other obvious point could be without Churchill as 1st Lord of the Admiralty how will the naval race develop? I could see the naval arms race going on a different direction. For one thing, I actually think that the resources that were used to built the very first British HMS Dreadnought would have been used to build say, the C, D, and E-classes of submarines. The Germans were the first ones to actually use it to such devastating effect. I think that the main future of naval warfare in this TL would either be destroyers, submarines, and carriers, a lot sooner. PS One other thing that comes to mind. Does Teddy Roosevelt's time as President get butterflied? He's in the headlines having pushed the war against Spain, then having retired from government duty to organise the Rough Riders and presumably been elected as Governor of New York. He was something of a controversial figure due to his radical ideas and while OTL was picked in part to balance the ticket its possible that he won't be selected as VP or probably more likely that McKinley doesn't get assassinated. If that doesn't happen then he may never have the top job or at least not until later. He had probably a bigger role in US politics than Churchill did in British politics before 1940 so there could be some substantial butterflies if he doesn't get the Presidency or simply it comes to him 4 or 8 years later say. McKinley wouldn't get assassinated in this case, mostly because as we will see, he still wins the election. Someone else dies instead. I would say that a longer lasting Philippine-American War might actually result in America becoming a bit militarisitc much earlier, which could have some interesting effects if they end up in an alternate version of WWI. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Nov 4, 2023 15:21:46 GMT
I could see militarists and colonialists being more prominent in the US but there will be a counter effect as well. Which will probably mean a deeper division as you say. Interesting that McKinley survives but someone else gets the bullet. |Have to see who and how things develop.
Would agree that the chances of an Anglo-German alliance are unlikely. As well as the distaste between Wilhelm and Edward VII and the poisonous influence of Tirpitz on relations between the two London wasn't willing to give Berlin the free hand it wanted on the continent. As such and assuming the naval challenge comes from Germany Britain will build more capital ships as that was both the nature of the German challenge and the way naval strength was measured at the time. Faster development of subs would require their effective use in a major war, ditto with aircraft. If you had a shorter WWI which leaves both the victors in better state and along with other nations to engage in at least a period of tension then you could see more rapid development of military technology.
In terms of the Boer war those figures seem to be pretty much what happened during the war with more forces from Britain itself, Canada and the colonies [which include Australia and New Zealand at this stage as their yet to gain dominion status]. I don't think Rhodesia had the strength to form an additional front but the three sieges that the Boers began and the successful defences of Mafeking, Ladysmith and Kimberley did tie down a considerable amount of their resources, allowing the British to weather the initial attack and counter attack. Albeit that there were the initial failures in the early stages.
In terms of Russia I don't think they will see Mongolia, even if boosted by parts of Inner Mongolia as a serious threat. Mongolia will be too small in resources and population and this is prior to Japan's defeat of Russia [which may not happen here] which damaged the image of European superiority. Plus an enlarged Mongolia controlling lands that China sees as its own will need allies/protectors and Russia would be the only real choice there.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 5, 2023 18:14:05 GMT
I could see militarists and colonialists being more prominent in the US but there will be a counter effect as well. Which will probably mean a deeper division as you say. Interesting that McKinley survives but someone else gets the bullet. |Have to see who and how things develop.
Would agree that the chances of an Anglo-German alliance are unlikely. As well as the distaste between Wilhelm and Edward VII and the poisonous influence of Tirpitz on relations between the two London wasn't willing to give Berlin the free hand it wanted on the continent. As such and assuming the naval challenge comes from Germany Britain will build more capital ships as that was both the nature of the German challenge and the way naval strength was measured at the time. Faster development of subs would require their effective use in a major war, ditto with aircraft. If you had a shorter WWI which leaves both the victors in better state and along with other nations to engage in at least a period of tension then you could see more rapid development of military technology.
In terms of the Boer war those figures seem to be pretty much what happened during the war with more forces from Britain itself, Canada and the colonies [which include Australia and New Zealand at this stage as their yet to gain dominion status]. I don't think Rhodesia had the strength to form an additional front but the three sieges that the Boers began and the successful defences of Mafeking, Ladysmith and Kimberley did tie down a considerable amount of their resources, allowing the British to weather the initial attack and counter attack. Albeit that there were the initial failures in the early stages.
In terms of Russia I don't think they will see Mongolia, even if boosted by parts of Inner Mongolia as a serious threat. Mongolia will be too small in resources and population and this is prior to Japan's defeat of Russia [which may not happen here] which damaged the image of European superiority. Plus an enlarged Mongolia controlling lands that China sees as its own will need allies/protectors and Russia would be the only real choice there.
Steve
It would be more like the British forces coming from Great Britain itself being transported by rail from the Cape Colony to Rhodesia instead of raising a local army from within the Rhodesian colony itself. However, I am not butterflying the events of Black Week, mostly because it might precipitate a much needed deeper reform of the British military for later campaigns against the Boers. It is also true that a larger Mongolia that includes Inner Mongolia, would have to rely on Russia as its own ally and protector as well, although the population of Inner Mongolia is slightly larger than that of Outer Mongolia. On the other hand, here's the first chapter. --- TURN ONE: OF FIRE, BLOOD AND POISON
The death of Emilio Aguinaldo in the Battle of Marilao River had a major effect on the entirety of the Philippine government, as the cabinet surrounding Prime Minister Apolinario Mabini had a heated discussion on who they should select as the new President. Luckily for them, Antonio Luna was far too busy managing the war effort but one of his subordinates, a Lieutenant Paco Roman, had suggested that they should establish a junta to centralize the war effort when he and General Luna were discussing it during the defense of Malolos from March 31st to April 4th. It was then that Lt. Roman suggested Jose Alejandrino for the position of President to Luna, but Luna disagreed, since Mabini could theoretically take the Presidency, while Alejandrino could take the post of Prime Minister. Thus, acting on General Luna's orders, Alejandrino would go to the cabinet ministers and nominated Mabini for the post of President while he himself will take the Prime Minister position. In turn, prominent flamboyant politician Pedro Paterno would become the new Foreign Minister. (1) Mabini would approve Alejandrino's suggestion, and on April 30th, Mabini would formally be sworn in as the second President of the Philippines. Yet, at the same time, Alejandrino was tasked by Luna to keep an eye on the cabinet ministers, in case one of them was feeding information to the Americans. Four days after Mabini was sworn in as the new President, he issued orders for the entire cabinet to evacuate to the town of Aritao in Nueva Vizcaya. Mabini's choice of Aritao was a strategically wise move: it lay at the foot of the Cordillera Mountains, which was the site of the mountain redoubt that General Luna had ordered the fortifications to be built. Additionally, Mabini would issue a controversial order that forever haunted much of his Presidency: he ordered the civilians to evacuate from their homes and burn their houses down to deprive the Americans of a much needed shelter from the occasional tropical storms. The results of Mabini's order was rather mixed: though the Americans were denied supplies and houses to guard their troops, they ordered engineers to build new houses that resembled the barracks seen in the American mainland. Furthermore, the destruction of the huts by Filipino civilians gave US Army General Adna Chafee, another officer stationed in the Philippines, an opportunity to rebuild the occupied town of Apalit into a proper American style small city. Ironically enough, Apalit would eventually become one of the fastest growing cities in the Philippine Republic, with immigrants arriving from Korea and Japan being the sizeable majority by 1970.
At the same time as the American successes in Luzon, the Filipino revolutionaries had scored a few significant victories in Visayas, and in Mindanao. In December of 1899, approximately 100 Filipino guerrillas had surprised a lone American supply depot in Seminara Island, just a few miles away from northern Samar. Though the guerrillas had managed to occupy Seminara Island, it was not until January 15th that American reinforcements would retake the islands. However, one of the war crimes that the American military had committed had taken place during another minor skirmish outside the town of Carigara, in Leyte Island. On February 8th, 1900, approximately over 900 US soldiers under the command of Major Littleton Waller had ambushed over 400 guerrilla fighters. When the guerrilla fighters surrendered, Major Waller rounded them up, and dragged them into Carigara, where they arrested over 200 civilians that were suspected of aiding the guerrillas. The American soldiers forced the captured guerrillas to dig large ditches for over 3 hours, before ordering his own soldiers to kill them. Once the captured guerrillas were executed. the rest of the American soldiers tied up the arrested civilians and ordered the Gatling gunners to kill them. The reprisals in Carigara would eventually result in over 1,300 civilians killed, though the series of atrocities would not end with the Carigara Massacre. Samar and Leyte will be known in the minds of anti-imperialists as the place of genocides. Even the succeeding Balangiga and Quinapondan Massacres of 1901 will dwarf of the Carigara massacres, as Major Waller would continue his rampage throughout those two islands. --- "Major Waller and General Jacob Smith were two American officers who gained notoriety during the Philippine-American War when their harsh military occupation policies had played a role in the massacres of Filipino civilians in the island of Samar and Leyte. However, General Smith's new position as the Military Governor-General of Visayas, along with Henry Ware Lawton's appointment as the Military Governor-General of Luzon and Leonard Wood's appointment as the Military Governor-General of Mindanao, would add to the greater misery that the Filipino civilians suffered. Though by now, 1900 was becoming an election year and both President William McKinley and his opponent in William Bryan were campaigning hard on the ongoing conflict in the Philippines. McKinley's campaign was built on winning the war in the Philippines, and that a second McKinley administration would escalate the war against the Filipino rebels, but will be a total pacification campaign. That McKinley's decision to use the death of Emilio Aguinaldo on the battlefield of the Marilao River as an example of how the United States will shorten the war garnered intense criticism from his opponents, especially the radical activists of the Anti-Imperialist League. The Anti-Imperialist League had grown horrified that a sitting US president can use his enemy's death as an example of what America is doing had confirmed their worst fears of a second McKinley administration being a more militaristic period. (2) Unfortunately, six months into the 1900 electoral campaign, the Democrats and their allies in the center and the left would be struck by a tragedy. On August 8, 1900, while greeting his audience after finishing his speech on Imperialism, William Bryan was shot twice; the first bullet struck him in the throat, and the second bullet struck him in the lung. He would instantly die from the wounds he sustained. At the same time, the assassin named Michael Czolgosz (3), who was a veteran of the Philippine-American War, had shot himself after being cornered by Indianapolis law enforcement. Before his death, the veteran Czolgosz had written in a suicide note his reasons for killing Mr. Bryan: fearful that the war in the Philippines might eventually end in an American defeat, and therefore the sacrifices that his comrades had made, would be all for nothing, Czolgosz acted to prevent Bryan from winning. An emergency election to replace Adlai Stevenson I, who now took Bryan's place, as Vice President was held on August 29th, with David Hill becoming the new Vice Presidential Candidate. Ultimately, the murder of William Bryan proved to be pointless, as President McKinley would be re-elected in November of 1900. The second McKinley administration will now become the Era of Fire, Blood, and Poison, as American militarism had become more pronounced. Additionally, the Aparri Incident that occurred back in September of 1899 would lead to President McKinley's decision to improve ties with Japan's nearby rival, Russia. To the Jewish organizations that played a role in helping their ethnic brethren escape from the Tsarist pogroms, McKinley's decision to back Russian ambitions in Asia over that of Japan was considered a slap in the face, as the American government is essentially rewarding the Tsarist government for its brutal treatment of the Jews. Indeed, One of McKinley's biggest backers, John Jacob Astor IV, whose family had funded McKinley's presidential campaign, was sent to the court of Russian Tsar Nicholas II, along with several other delegates working on behalf of US Secretary of State John Hay. Yet, one of the biggest scandals that have struck the Russian Empire occurred on February 21st, 1901, when the Tsar's personal carriage was held up for a three hour delay because another train was passing by and both trains were on the same rail line. (4) The delay occurred just approximately 300 kilometers outside the city of Tyumen. The 3 hour delay eventually turned into a 21 hour delay, and by the time Nicholas II's train was able to resume its journey, the Tsar himself complained to the train operator as to why there was a huge delay. The operator promptly responded by saying that the Trans-Siberian Railway only had one track, to which the Tsar was dumbfounded. By the time he arrived in the city of Vladivostok to receive the American delegates, it was already March 6th (as additional delays in Irkutsk and Ulan Ude had added to his woes). Needless to say, the American delegates were not happy with the late arrival, but Nicholas II's complaints about the Trans-Siberian Railway being a one track railway had stunned both Astor and the other American delegates." From 'McKinley and the Rise of the American Empire', released by American Broadcasting Network, August 25th, 2010.--- Excerpts from 'When Death Came at China's Door: Two Conflicts that Destroyed the Qing'
by: Masao Takenaka
University of Northern British Columbia Printing Press, released on October 12, 2017
Chapter Four: Boxers and ClaimantsIn addition to the Mongolian separatists that launched an uprising against the Qing on July 19th of 1900, the conflict between the supporters of Prince Pujun, known for his title of the Guoliang Emperor, and those who support the claim of Prince Puwei, who has taken the title of the Yongnian Emperor has erupted. The reactionaries have taken control of a good portion of northern and central China, especially Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan provinces. Puwei's supporters however, had the advantage of controlling the Manchu heartland, as they took control of Fengtian, Heilongjiang, and Jilin. In addition, the same Russian delegate that traveled to Vladivostok for a meeting with top American officials led by John Jacob Astor IV had dispatched Sergey Sazonov to Mudanjiang for further diplomatic wrangling with Prince Puwei's faction. Sazonov was instructed by Nicholas II to offer his faction the city of Port Arthur, or Qingniwa in Mandarin Chinese, to Puwei, in exchange for Russia acquiring another warm water port elsewhere. That elsewhere eventually resulted in the Russian Empire acquiring a small sliver of northeastern Hamgyong province where the future city of Nazhin, or Najin in Korean, would be built. However, the Boxer Rebellion that broke out at the same time as the Qing Succession War, had electrified much of the Han Chinese population to the point where there were more defections from two Green Standard Armies controlled by both claimants to the Boxers.
The first province to fall under the control of the Boxers was Fujian, known for its close proximity to Japanese Taiwan. It was largely thanks to the fallout from the notorious incident in the Philippine port of Aparri where the Japanese freight ship the Nunobiki Maru had been sunk by an American warship after US military authorities spotted a large shipment of Murata rifles destined for the Philippine Republican Army, that Japan would not join the Eight Nation Alliance in suppressing the Boxer Revolt. Additionally, the US couldn't join in the suppression of the Boxers, as it needed to focus all of its energies in the Philippine Islands. As a result, the Japanese government largely saw the Boxers as a useful patsy in weakening the Qing Dynasty a bit further. Likewise, the Russians didn't view the Mongolian separatists as a patsy, but rather a kind of shield against any revanchist Chinese state. Tragically, the Qing Succession War would split the Eight Nation Alliance more than anything else, as the German Empire under Kaiser Wilhelm II would fully support Prince Pujun's claim on the throne. The Germans didn't support Pujun because of Dowager Empress Cixi's reactionary allies, but rather because they saw Pujun as a useful puppet that would serve German interests. Likewise, Austria-Hungary has thrown its diplomatic support behind Pujun as well, for the sake of stability. Not only that, a Pujun/Guoliang-ruled China would be a useful ally against Russia, should the latter end up in a war against Austria-Hungary. Only Russia and France would throw their support behind Prince Puwei's claim on the throne, though in June of 1900, Britain would also show their diplomatic support for Prince Puwei/Yongnian Emperor. The United States, as mentioned earlier, would not show support behind either claimant, as it was distracted by the Philippine-American War.
The first battle between the two claimants occurred on June 28th, 1900, in the city of Chengde. Pujun's forces, which was numbered around 13,000 soldiers, against Puwei's 17,000 defenders. Though both sides had initially lacked artillery pieces, they made up for it with cavalry equipped with the latest Mauser rifles. Though the siege only lasted for only two weeks, Pujun's forces were forced to pull back from Chengde when it became apparent that the Boxers were gaining more strength in Shandong province, and had to redeploy much of its army to suppress the rebellion. Yet, a mutiny led by several Han Chinese soldiers outside Binzhou on July 12th had resulted in their defection to the Boxers, though they were grouped under a separate unit, as the Boxers themselves mostly carried spears and swords. In addition, the Mutual Defense Pact of the Southeastern Provinces, an agreement made by several governors who opposed the Imperial call for a declaration of war against the intervening foreign powers involved in the Succession Crisis, had taken the task of suppressing the Boxers themselves. However, the governors of the southeastern Chinese provinces that were a part of the Mutual Defense Pact, had not taken either side of the claimants, since they feared being punished for choosing the wrong side. Luckily or unluckily for the governors of those southeastern provinces, they would have to deal with another uprising in the north. This time, both claimants would be surprised and stunned when on July 19th, 1900, the Mongolian War of National Liberation and Independence would break out. Prince Tögs-Ochiryn Namnansüren and many other Outer and Inner Mongolian leaders, would declare Mongolia's independence and formally asked the international community to recognize their sovereignty. Only Russia and Japan would recognize the independence of Mongolia the very next day, as many other foreign powers that have chosen to intervene in the Qing Succession Crisis, recognized Qing sovereignty over Mongolia. However, the Mongolian independence activists would not only fight for the freedom of their homeland, but to avenge the deaths of the Inner Mongols that were slaughtered during the Jindandao Massacre of 1891.
--- "The Sipido Incident of April 4th, 1900 had revealed the growing anarchist threat, not just to Europe, but the whole world at large, in such ways that it has never experienced before. That the incident named after the assassin who killed Britain's heir apparent Prince Edward, was more of a directed anger at the British Empire over the suffering inflicted upon the Boer peoples of South Africa, than ideological motivation. Prince Edward's death had a negative effect on an already soured relations between Great Britain and Belgium, though the ideological brand that Jean-Baptiste Sipido had displayed awakened Europe to the anarchist danger. In response, Belgian authorities began to crack down on anarchist organizations to cleanse itself of such a danger. Georges Thonar, one of the few Belgian anarchist leaders who was responsible for leading an anarchist section in the town of Liege, was arrested on August 16th, 1900, by Belgian police. However, the nature of which he was interrogated was rather brutal; on one occasion, the police had stepped on Thonar's fingers, causing him to yell out in pain. Likewise, Thonar was also subjected to water boarding and other physical beatings, before proceeding to break several bones in his body, especially his legs and knees. Yet, the nature of Thonar's torture at the hands of Belgian authorities had triggered a backlash, as several parcel bomb attacks had struck every building in Liege. In left-wing circles, the news of Thonar's torture had angered several leaders, including Emile Armand, who wrote an article that condemned both Sipido's hotheaded behavior in the murder of Prince Edward, and the Belgian police agents that tortured Thonar. The fact that Thonar would later die from wounds sustained by torture in November 6th of 1900, would electrify much of the anarchist and leftist worlds, as a general strike would be called by November 10th in the rest of Belgium. However, the Belgian General Strike of 1900 would coincide with a Congolese Revolt of the same year, as the Congolese laborers working in the rubber plantations, initiated the uprising in Sungamboyo against Belgian colonial authorities. The reports of appalling atrocities committed against the Congolese laborers that not only worked on the rubber plantations, but other mineral resource extractions, had garnered more hostility towards King Leopold II, to the point where the Belgian parliament was demanding that the king cede control of his personal Congolese domain to the Belgian government as a whole. By then, the uprising had spread into several other areas along the Yekokora and Lopori Rivers, culminating in the fall of Basankusu. Paul Lafargue, the son-in-law of Karl Marx, had written a book on the inevitability of the Congolese rebellion against their Belgian overlords as an example of a successful leftist version of the Roman slave revolts, though the political paralysis of the Belgian government as a result of the General Strike of 1900 crippled their ability to suppress the Congolese Revolt, paving the way for Africa's first attempt at creating a worker's republic, though that effort ended in failure, largely thanks to conflicting interests between the former slave laborers who differed in their ideological output." From 'Children of Anarchy', documentary released by PolitVision channel.--- Summary of American Foreign Policy of the Second McKinley Administration:The growing escalation of the conflict between the United States and the Philippines had played a role in the growth of American militarism, as the McKinley administration had decided to pay attention to the development of its own navy. Although submarines have yet to play a role in the evolution of naval warfare, naval officers gave much of their output on the development of the submarines, especially the Plunger-class submarine. It was largely thanks to Britain's decision to cancel the project for a planned massive battleship in favor of a stronger development in its own submarines that would eventually phase out the era where massive battleships ruled the oceans. Although the concept of a two ocean navy was not yet fully materialized until the 1940s, it was first proposed by Elihu Root, shortly before he was replaced by Robert Bacon, as a necessary security measure in the event that the US would end up fighting a two front naval conflict. Although much of the shipbuilding hub mainly lay with the East Coast, the emerging importance of the Pacific has played a role in expanding the shipbuilding capabilities in the American Pacific Coast. Moreover, the US territory of Alaska has began to play a crucial role in the McKinley administration's foreign policy shift from being pro-Japan to anti-Japan, as a result of the Aparri Incident of 1899. However, President McKinley himself would gradually lose support of the Jewish bloc, as his decision to improve ties to the Tsarist government in Russia had garnered public outrage, in light of the Tsarist pogroms against its Jewish minority. However, both the Republican and Democratic Parties have historically been known for a tradition of virulent anti-Semitism, as they discouraged Jews from joining both parties. Indeed, when news of both the Kishinev (1903) and later on the infamous Slonim Pogrom of 1904 had reached the McKinley Administration, the President was at loss of words as to how he should respond. On one hand, the American Jewish population had become more politically active to the point where they could influence several politicians to persuade President McKinley to moderate or even reverse his decision to improve ties between the US and the Russian Empire. On the other hand, President McKinley could not afford to alienate the only other ally that he has left in the Pacific, considering that Britain may or may not be friendly towards any American suggestions regarding China. Indeed, the McKinley administration's proposal of an Open Door Policy regarding trade with China has come under jeopardy due to the Qing Succession Crisis. Furthermore, a weakened China might not stand up to the might of an increasingly strengthened Japanese Empire, whose ambitions and designs on Korea is well known.
McKinley's other policy aimed at Latin America was more in favor of direct interventionism, perhaps even stronger than interventionism in the Philippines, as its control of Cuba and Puerto Rico has resulted in a more pronounced American influence in the Caribbean. Furthermore, the European presence in the Caribbean flew in the face of the Monroe Doctrine, as European colonialism in the Western Hemisphere threatened American security. It was not until after the McKinley administration formally ended in 1905 that succeeding American presidents would pay more attention to the rest of the Western Hemisphere that it began to craft some hidden plans for a possible American territorial expansion in the rest of the Western Hemisphere. In 1903, the McKinley administration would recognize Panama as a sovereign state, independent from Colombia, in order to proceed with the construction of the Panama Canal. However, the Teller Agreement in which McKinley signed on a couple of years back in exchange for domestic support for the war with Spain, had practically stymied deeper American plans regarding Cuba. In contrast to Cuba, which was going to become a US protectorate, American plans for the Philippines was more along the lines of direct annexation, with the long standing policy of benevolent assimilation as the aim of assimilating and integrating the predominantly brown skinned Filipinos into the American system. Unfortunately, the increasing costs of the Philippine-American War, coupled with the loss of trust in the United States from among the Filipino population, had nearly destroyed the policy of benevolent assimilation. Furthermore, hardline US military generals that witnessed the increasing casualties of their own soldiers would resort to brutal, often appalling measures that exposed McKinley's 'civilizational mission' as a lie. The Anti-Imperialist League, now slightly weakened by the assassination of William Jennings Bryan, had nominated Moorfield Storey as its next de facto leader. Viewing both the Republican and Democratic Parties as two groups that didn't have the best interests of the average worker and farmer, as well as the African-American and Hispanic-American minorities within the US, the Anti-Imperialist League would approach the newly formed Socialist Party of America for an alliance in which anti-imperialism would become an integral part of the socialist program. --- Excerpts from 'Balkan Intrigues and Games: A Civilizational Clash Between Austria-Hungary and Russia'
by: Zlatan Delic
Stanford University Printing Press
Chapter Two: Marriage DiplomacyAlthough Alexander I of Serbia had been smitten by one of his mother's ladies in waiting, a certain Draga Masin, his father was negotiating with Prince William of Schaumbburg-Lippe for a marriage match between Princess Alexandra Karoline and the reigning Serbian King. (5) In order for the match to proceed, his mother, the Dowager Queen Natalija, suddenly dismissed Draga from her service, as a safety precaution. On August 9th, 1900, the wedding between Alexander I and Princess Alexandra occurred, with the latter converting to Orthodox Christianity and taking the baptismal name of Marija. However, the now crowned Queen Alexandra would keep her name upon taking the role as Queen of Serbia. While the House of Obrenovic had been strengthened by a rather unusual marriage match, both the other Serbian royal houses of Karadjordjevic and Petrovic-Njegos were also making their own marriage matches as well. Indeed, the Karadjordjevic family had been in exile for almost 30 years since the last time the very first Karadjordjevic ruler, Prince Alexander, had governed Serbia when it was just a Principality. Both families were more than just close to each other: Peter Karadjordjevic had married Princess Zorka, who was the daughter of Nicholas I of Montenegro, giving that marital alliance the necessary strength it needed to push off the Obrenovic family from the Serbian throne. To strengthen both families even further, Nicholas I would arrange marriage matches for his three youngest children: - Princess Ksenija's engagement of Grand Duke Mikhail Aleksandrovich was confirmed, and the couple eventually married in 1903, amidst the worsening situation in both Western Europe and East Asia. From this marriage, four children would be born: Prince Pyotr Mikhailovich (1905-1979), Princess Elena Mikhailovna (1908-1973), Princess Natalia Mikhailovna (1912-1977), and Prince Vasily Mikhailovich (1914-1981)- Princess Vjera eventually married Prince Andrew of Greece a year after Princess Ksenija's wedding to Grand Duke Mikhail Aleksandrovich. From this marriage, only two children would be born: Princess Anastasia (1906-1982), and Princess Maria (1908-1981)- Prince Petar of Montenegro had actually fallen in love with Princess Eudoxia of Bulgaria while being dispatched to the Bulgarian capital of Sofia as a part of a diplomatic delegation on behalf of Montenegro, while negotiating for the creation of the Balkan League in 1912. They would not marry until 1916, by which time Prince Petar had already stayed in Bulgaria as a de facto diplomatic hostage of the Bulgarian court, in exchange for a Montenegrin-Bulgarian alliance.Likewise, the Karadjordjevic dynasty was not idle in its own marriage matches as well. The head of the Karadjordjevic family, Prince Peter, had also looked for marriage matches for his surviving sons. To this end, he would also travel around Europe and the Russian Empire to negotiate the desired matches. Luckily for Prince Peter, he has managed to secure a match for his oldest son, Prince Djordje. While traveling to Denmark for an audience with the ageing and dying King Christian IX, he negotiated for Danish support for the Karadjordjevic claim on the Serbian throne. Additionally, he pitched the idea of a match between Prince Djordje and Princess Margaret as a symbol of that kind of marital alliance. At first, both King Christian IX and Margaret's father Prince Valdemar, were skeptical about the marriage match, as it was not like their other plans to wed Margaret to either another Protestant prince or a Catholic prince. Unfortunately, it would not be until 1915 to finally get the answer, in which war clouds were already gathering. On the other hand, the news that Queen Alexandra of Serbia's pregnancy had been announced back in February of 1901 had electrified the Serbian public, though her childbirth had been traumatic as she nearly died from complications surrounding the birth of her only daughter, Princess Elizabeth Obrenovic.(6) According to Serbian physicians and doctors placed in charge of the Queen's childbirth, the baby had to be removed by what modern health experts now called the Caesarean section. Queen Alexandra had lost an enormous amount of blood due to the complications of her childbirth, though she lived. However, she would never again have any children at all, sealing the fate of the Obrenovic dynasty.News of Princess Elizabeth's birth on November 27th of 1901 had also stunned the Montenegrin court, as they now saw their chance of Prince Mirko being appointed as the new Crown Prince of Serbia, now that Alexander I could no longer have any sons of his own. Likewise, the Karadjordjevic family also saw that opportunity to match the infant Princess Elizabeth with the second son Prince Alexander. To this end, the Karadjordjevic family would travel to Serbia for an audience with King Alexander. While negotiating for a match between Prince Alexander and the infant Princess Elizabeth, several royal guards loyal to the Obrenovic dynasty had arrested both Prince Petar and Prince Djorde on charges of treason. Though in reality King Alexander simply wanted his Karadjordjevic rivals to be removed. Their public execution on November 29th had infuriated much of both the Serbian public and the surviving members of the Karadjordjevic family to the point where members of a radical nationalist group called the Black Hand had sworn their allegiance to Prince Alexander. Likewise, Prince Alexander himself objected to the engagement between himself and the daughter of the man who killed his father and younger brother. Consequently, the infant Princess Elizabeth would instead be engaged to a son of Prince Arsen of Serbia, Prince Paul.The unresolved issue of the Austrian occupation of the Ottoman Sanjak of Novi Pazar had been the source of tensions between the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Serbia. Indeed, Austria-Hungary had clear designs on Bosnia-Hercegovina and they didn't hide their desire to annex the former Ottoman vilayet. On the other hand the Austro-Hungarian Army was not yet ready for a major war against the other powers in the region, even though they could theoretically defeat Serbia in any conflict. However, Archduke Franz Ferdinand realized that to allow the Sanjak of Novi Pazar to be partitioned between Serbia and Montenegro would only encourage additional Serbian sedition in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, as its own Serbian minority would be encouraged to rebel and to join their ethnic brethren within Serbia itself. Eventually, Austria-Hungary would cede the Sanjak of Novi Pazar back to the Ottoman Empire, which reattached it to Kosovo Vilayet. However, it would ultimately be proved pointless, as events in Anatolia surrounding the Six Vilayets where the Ottoman Armenian population had resided would eventually go out of control, leading to not only an Armenian Revolt of 1909, but the First Balkan War of the same year.---(1) Pedro Paterno IOTL had a notorious reputation for being a turncoat. First he sided with the Spaniards, then defected to the Filipino Revolutionaries, and finally to the Americans.
(2) The Anti-Imperialist League was opposed to the American annexation of the Philippines IOTL. Here, given the additional atrocities, the opposition to America becoming an imperial power in its own right would be stronger.
(3) The brother of Leon Czolgosz, who IOTL assassinated President McKinley. His brother Michael actually fought in the Philippines IOTL, and ITTL.
(4) The problem of the Trans-Siberian Railroad being that it was only one track had plagued Russian logistics during the OTL Russo-Japanese War, which indirectly contributed to the spectacular Russian defeat on land against the Japanese.
(5) The previous King, Milan I, had apparently been negotiating for the marriage match between Princess Alexandra Karoline and King Alexander when he married Draga Masin IOTL. Here, given the earlier dismissal of Ms. Masin, Alexander eventually marries the woman he was supposed to marry IOTL.
(6) This should be a reference that anyone should recognize. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 6, 2023 9:27:45 GMT
Well tried replying last night but when I posted had some connection problem so lost it. Trying again now.
a) Is there a railway to Rhodesia that doesn't go through territory that would be blocked by the Boers in their early attacks? Especially one that the British can use for shipping troops, military supplies etc. - There might be an option through Portuguese Mozambique but would they allow military shipments? Do agree that the early Boer successes were important in prompting military reforms in the army.
b) Interesting that Bryan gets murdered rather than McKinley and that the resulting public sympathy doesn't make a big enough difference. Sounds like its going to be a much nastier occupation for all concerned but especially the locals and that the idea of fully incorporating it into the US like other colonial territories is going to make it even nastier.
c) Not sure why Britain is siding with the same faction as the Russians and French in the Chinese civil war as at this date they were still the prime rivals, although Wilhelm would very quickly be working to change that.
d) I got the idea from the Czar's trip that it would end up with a more capable Trans-Siberian being built and that could be a bad thing for Japan when war with Russia comes. Will point out that OTL Japan started the war before the line was completed so that Russia couldn't easily reinforce so they might be prompted to go even earlier here.
e) As I said Britain wouldn't go for priority to subs at this point. Apart from the conservatism of much of the Admiralty at this stage and the powerful industrial interests the big issue is that subs are sea denial weapons, not sea control. Given its dependence on imports for economic survival and world wide colonial and economic interests as well as maintaining the largest merchant navy in the world Britain needs sea control. Coupled with the earlier date so subs are still pretty primitive this just isn't realistic.
Anyway think I've covered the main issues and hopefully this posts OK.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 7, 2023 2:40:57 GMT
I recently got back to work, so sorry for the long delay in the response. So here goes: There's a railway line that goes through Bechuanaland Protectorate, and into Rhodesia. Although judging by the map, it might be a bit more realistic to open up another front from Bechuanaland to the Transvaal, but the only barrier to that would be the Limpopo River. The only way that the British could theoretically open up a front from Portuguese Mozambique would be if the Boers had violated Portuguese colonial borders, and I wouldn't picture the Boers doing something monumentally stupid like invite Portugal to enter the war on Britain's side. htonl.dev.openstreetmap.org/old-railway-maps/cgr-map-190x.jpegb) Interesting that Bryan gets murdered rather than McKinley and that the resulting public sympathy doesn't make a big enough difference. Sounds like its going to be a much nastier occupation for all concerned but especially the locals and that the idea of fully incorporating it into the US like other colonial territories is going to make it even nastier. IOTL, the Teller and later Platt Agreements had only resulted in turning Cuba into a protectorate, though the Schurman and Taft Commissions, plus the Philippine Organic Act, had essentially established a brand new Philippine government. With the war becoming even nastier, coupled with atrocities and lingering bitterness and hatred, the US may either accept defeat and face internal turmoil due to their heavy losses and humiliation at the hands of the Filipino rebels, or they would double down on the total pacification campaign that would punish the Filipino people with a similar kind of system to the ones that the Germans created in Poland during WWII. Basically a General Government, but much worse. c) Not sure why Britain is siding with the same faction as the Russians and French in the Chinese civil war as at this date they were still the prime rivals, although Wilhelm would very quickly be working to change that. If there is one thing that I almost forgot to address the immediate effects on the British crown, it would be an earlier death of Prince Edward, who became Edward VII IOTL. Removing him might, and I mean, might, temper down the possible hostility between Britain and Germany. Unlike Edward VII, King George V might have had a good relationship with both Wilhelm II and Tsar Nicholas II. However, Russia backing the claim of Prince Puwei is not as strong as the British and French claim, mostly because they're more interested in preserving Mongolia as a buffer, and if things go south rather quickly, they could just snatch Manchuria as a consolation prize, although I wouldn't rule out the idea or possibility of partitioning Manchuria between Russia and China, with the latter getting the areas that have already been populated by Han Chinese. d) I got the idea from the Czar's trip that it would end up with a more capable Trans-Siberian being built and that could be a bad thing for Japan when war with Russia comes. Will point out that OTL Japan started the war before the line was completed so that Russia couldn't easily reinforce so they might be prompted to go even earlier here. Unlike southern Manchuria, northern Manchuria is sparsely populated, and there's already a railway that was built by the Russians back in 1897 (the Chinese Eastern Railway), but it wouldn't be completed until 1902. Here, given that the issue of the Trans-Siberian Railway was that it wasn't double tracked, the completion of the CER, along with upgrading the TSR, would not be completed until well into the 1930s! Given that they will have to double track the western end of the Russian Empire, plus double track the Siberian heartland, before going to the Far East, that would definitely take an awfully long time to complete, and that's with just the paid labor. It could be slightly shorter if we take into account the Tsarist labor camps, or katorgas, where they could supply convict laborers, though conditions in the Tsarist katorgas might be similar to the conditions in the OTL Soviet gulags. e) As I said Britain wouldn't go for priority to subs at this point. Apart from the conservatism of much of the Admiralty at this stage and the powerful industrial interests the big issue is that subs are sea denial weapons, not sea control. Given its dependence on imports for economic survival and world wide colonial and economic interests as well as maintaining the largest merchant navy in the world Britain needs sea control. Coupled with the earlier date so subs are still pretty primitive this just isn't realistic. You are right, and I agree with you. My only complaint about the Dreadnought-class super battleships was the enormous amount of iron and metal used to build such a thing. Such massive amount of resources that were devoted to building the Dreadnoughts could have been better used for building smaller, albeit faster, ships like destroyers and cruisers. I would think that the Germans would definitely be ahead in submarine development, as they would have to be more focused on sea denial tactics and weapons instead of playing catch up to the British. Given the Great Game still being a thing, I could also sense that the Russians would push for more research into the use of submarines. Out of all the great powers, I would think that Britain and America would be more focused on sea control tactics than sea denial. Other than that, I'm not exactly sure which would be more realistic: an Anglo-German rapprochement, a Russo-German rapprochement, or an Anglo-Russian rapprochement? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 7, 2023 13:05:47 GMT
I recently got back to work, so sorry for the long delay in the response. So here goes: There's a railway line that goes through Bechuanaland Protectorate, and into Rhodesia. Although judging by the map, it might be a bit more realistic to open up another front from Bechuanaland to the Transvaal, but the only barrier to that would be the Limpopo River. The only way that the British could theoretically open up a front from Portuguese Mozambique would be if the Boers had violated Portuguese colonial borders, and I wouldn't picture the Boers doing something monumentally stupid like invite Portugal to enter the war on Britain's side. htonl.dev.openstreetmap.org/old-railway-maps/cgr-map-190x.jpegb) Interesting that Bryan gets murdered rather than McKinley and that the resulting public sympathy doesn't make a big enough difference. Sounds like its going to be a much nastier occupation for all concerned but especially the locals and that the idea of fully incorporating it into the US like other colonial territories is going to make it even nastier. IOTL, the Teller and later Platt Agreements had only resulted in turning Cuba into a protectorate, though the Schurman and Taft Commissions, plus the Philippine Organic Act, had essentially established a brand new Philippine government. With the war becoming even nastier, coupled with atrocities and lingering bitterness and hatred, the US may either accept defeat and face internal turmoil due to their heavy losses and humiliation at the hands of the Filipino rebels, or they would double down on the total pacification campaign that would punish the Filipino people with a similar kind of system to the ones that the Germans created in Poland during WWII. Basically a General Government, but much worse. c) Not sure why Britain is siding with the same faction as the Russians and French in the Chinese civil war as at this date they were still the prime rivals, although Wilhelm would very quickly be working to change that. If there is one thing that I almost forgot to address the immediate effects on the British crown, it would be an earlier death of Prince Edward, who became Edward VII IOTL. Removing him might, and I mean, might, temper down the possible hostility between Britain and Germany. Unlike Edward VII, King George V might have had a good relationship with both Wilhelm II and Tsar Nicholas II. However, Russia backing the claim of Prince Puwei is not as strong as the British and French claim, mostly because they're more interested in preserving Mongolia as a buffer, and if things go south rather quickly, they could just snatch Manchuria as a consolation prize, although I wouldn't rule out the idea or possibility of partitioning Manchuria between Russia and China, with the latter getting the areas that have already been populated by Han Chinese. d) I got the idea from the Czar's trip that it would end up with a more capable Trans-Siberian being built and that could be a bad thing for Japan when war with Russia comes. Will point out that OTL Japan started the war before the line was completed so that Russia couldn't easily reinforce so they might be prompted to go even earlier here. Unlike southern Manchuria, northern Manchuria is sparsely populated, and there's already a railway that was built by the Russians back in 1897 (the Chinese Eastern Railway), but it wouldn't be completed until 1902. Here, given that the issue of the Trans-Siberian Railway was that it wasn't double tracked, the completion of the CER, along with upgrading the TSR, would not be completed until well into the 1930s! Given that they will have to double track the western end of the Russian Empire, plus double track the Siberian heartland, before going to the Far East, that would definitely take an awfully long time to complete, and that's with just the paid labor. It could be slightly shorter if we take into account the Tsarist labor camps, or katorgas, where they could supply convict laborers, though conditions in the Tsarist katorgas might be similar to the conditions in the OTL Soviet gulags. e) As I said Britain wouldn't go for priority to subs at this point. Apart from the conservatism of much of the Admiralty at this stage and the powerful industrial interests the big issue is that subs are sea denial weapons, not sea control. Given its dependence on imports for economic survival and world wide colonial and economic interests as well as maintaining the largest merchant navy in the world Britain needs sea control. Coupled with the earlier date so subs are still pretty primitive this just isn't realistic. You are right, and I agree with you. My only complaint about the Dreadnought-class super battleships was the enormous amount of iron and metal used to build such a thing. Such massive amount of resources that were devoted to building the Dreadnoughts could have been better used for building smaller, albeit faster, ships like destroyers and cruisers. I would think that the Germans would definitely be ahead in submarine development, as they would have to be more focused on sea denial tactics and weapons instead of playing catch up to the British. Given the Great Game still being a thing, I could also sense that the Russians would push for more research into the use of submarines. Out of all the great powers, I would think that Britain and America would be more focused on sea control tactics than sea denial. Other than that, I'm not exactly sure which would be more realistic: an Anglo-German rapprochement, a Russo-German rapprochement, or an Anglo-Russian rapprochement?
a) OK thanks for clarifying.
b) By other colonial territory I meant the western areas beyond the current level of controlled settlement. I.e. from the old NW territories and then the regions across the Mississippi. Plus they did later with recent gains such as Alaska and Hawaii. The Philippines were a step too far I think because they were both a fairly sizeable non-white [by the standards of the day anyway] majority population that was also Christian [hence a barrier for being too harsh] but Catholic and hence mistrusted by the majority Protestant US population of the time.
c) To a degree Edward's death might moderate this somewhat as he was a considerable Francophile. However the basic issue was Wilhelm's hostility toward Britain and his desire to show that Germany was a greater power. I can't see him not pushing for a naval challenge - which also had a considerably political industrial presence and during the Boer War he openly supported the Boers quite vocally. This was coupled with the dominance of the military in Germany which meant they only really saw military solutions to problems. Hence the desire for a crushing military victory over France and Russia which would mean a clear German control of the bulk of the continent that would be a dire threat to British independence. As such while without Edward's influence the entente cordial might be weaker and take longer but I can't see an Anglo-German reproachment due to the vast distances between the two nations. Britain has rivalries with both France and Russia but their largely colonial and with Germany replacing France as the primary military power the latter isn't really seen as an invasion threat any more. Its possible that if say you reach 1918-20 without a war the growing perceived power of Russia could see this change but it would take a lot given the prolonged tensions between Britain and Germany.
d) It might be possible to complete a railway to Vladivostok earlier but I think that is likely to prompt earlier actions from Japan. Its more complicated with the civil war currently in China, Russian attempts to detach Inner Mongolia and both Russia and Japan being interested in Manchuria but its in Japan's interests to go before the railway is effectively completed. They could well lose but its in their interests to attempt such.
e) The problem is Tirpitz and the Kaiser are more interested in a prestige fleet showing Germany's economic and military power than simply being able to challenge Britain's trade routes by the most efficient means. Battleships are the symbol of naval power and demonstrate industrial power by being able to build them, especially in large numbers. Coupled with the facts that subs are still fairly simple and very limited in factors like range and also that attacks on commercial shipping from ambush would be totally illegal I can't see Germany trying such an approach until its been made clear to them that they can't win by the big ship route.
Steve
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 8, 2023 4:02:49 GMT
b) By other colonial territory I meant the western areas beyond the current level of controlled settlement. I.e. from the old NW territories and then the regions across the Mississippi. Plus they did later with recent gains such as Alaska and Hawaii. The Philippines were a step too far I think because they were both a fairly sizeable non-white [by the standards of the day anyway] majority population that was also Christian [hence a barrier for being too harsh] but Catholic and hence mistrusted by the majority Protestant US population of the time. That is exactly true, although the policy of benevolent assimilation had actually mitigated the problem of the Philippines being a step too far for the US to swallow. c) To a degree Edward's death might moderate this somewhat as he was a considerable Francophile. However the basic issue was Wilhelm's hostility toward Britain and his desire to show that Germany was a greater power. I can't see him not pushing for a naval challenge - which also had a considerably political industrial presence and during the Boer War he openly supported the Boers quite vocally. This was coupled with the dominance of the military in Germany which meant they only really saw military solutions to problems. Hence the desire for a crushing military victory over France and Russia which would mean a clear German control of the bulk of the continent that would be a dire threat to British independence. As such while without Edward's influence the entente cordial might be weaker and take longer but I can't see an Anglo-German reproachment due to the vast distances between the two nations. Britain has rivalries with both France and Russia but their largely colonial and with Germany replacing France as the primary military power the latter isn't really seen as an invasion threat any more. Its possible that if say you reach 1918-20 without a war the growing perceived power of Russia could see this change but it would take a lot given the prolonged tensions between Britain and Germany. That would be a huge problem with the British: either come to a rapprochement with France, and by extension, Russia, or come to a rapprochement with Germany, which might increase the danger to Britain's independence from a German hegemonic control of Europe. Given Germany's belligerence and its open support for the Boers, that might pose an awkward situation between Wilhelm II and George V. In the end, it might be inevitable for Britain and France to come a bit closer, but would have to find another willing ally that could join the Anglo-French club. Portugal, even if it was greatly weakened, might be a good choice, given the historical long relations between England and Portugal. I also think there could also be a good opening for more improved relations between Britain and Portugal, and it might involve the Second Boer War. d) It might be possible to complete a railway to Vladivostok earlier but I think that is likely to prompt earlier actions from Japan. Its more complicated with the civil war currently in China, Russian attempts to detach Inner Mongolia and both Russia and Japan being interested in Manchuria but its in Japan's interests to go before the railway is effectively completed. They could well lose but its in their interests to attempt such. There's also China who might be interested in preserving what's left of their share of Manchuria if the Russians decide to occupy and steal the northern half. Even a weakened China that loses some territory could still end up posing a threat to both Russia and Japan, although if the US is desperate for an Asian ally that won't undermine its interest, China would naturally fit the bill. The only problem with this would be the Chinese Exclusion Act, which kinda puts another damper on Sino-American relations, although the US government can make an exception by exempting the US overseas territories in the Pacific and perhaps the Caribbean from the Chinese Exclusion Act. e) The problem is Tirpitz and the Kaiser are more interested in a prestige fleet showing Germany's economic and military power than simply being able to challenge Britain's trade routes by the most efficient means. Battleships are the symbol of naval power and demonstrate industrial power by being able to build them, especially in large numbers. Coupled with the facts that subs are still fairly simple and very limited in factors like range and also that attacks on commercial shipping from ambush would be totally illegal I can't see Germany trying such an approach until its been made clear to them that they can't win by the big ship route. It sounds like Tirpitz and the Kaiser are boneheads when it comes to such an ego-boosting competition with the British. Given that Germany is more of a land power, it would only make sense when they're improving ties with Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. There might also be an interesting angle regarding a possible war involving the Ottoman Empire that I could examine. In addition to a potential Armenian rebellion, there's also Italy's hunger for Ottoman Triploitania and a general Balkan War that may erupt. Perhaps it might be the Italians that could join this Balkan League, despite not being a Balkan power itself. An interesting reward could be in the cards for Italy if it joined the Balkan Wars against the Ottomans, and that would be what's left of Albania that hasn't been partitioned between Serbia, Montenegro, and Greece. Rump Albania, along with Ottoman Tripolitania, would be the realistic goal for the Italians. There could also be an additional opportunity for a rapprochement between France and Italy: perhaps trading Italian Eritrea to France for let's say, Tunisia. The Italians were also obsessed with getting Tunisia, though the French beat them to it. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 9, 2023 14:11:03 GMT
b) By other colonial territory I meant the western areas beyond the current level of controlled settlement. I.e. from the old NW territories and then the regions across the Mississippi. Plus they did later with recent gains such as Alaska and Hawaii. The Philippines were a step too far I think because they were both a fairly sizeable non-white [by the standards of the day anyway] majority population that was also Christian [hence a barrier for being too harsh] but Catholic and hence mistrusted by the majority Protestant US population of the time. That is exactly true, although the policy of benevolent assimilation had actually mitigated the problem of the Philippines being a step too far for the US to swallow. c) To a degree Edward's death might moderate this somewhat as he was a considerable Francophile. However the basic issue was Wilhelm's hostility toward Britain and his desire to show that Germany was a greater power. I can't see him not pushing for a naval challenge - which also had a considerably political industrial presence and during the Boer War he openly supported the Boers quite vocally. This was coupled with the dominance of the military in Germany which meant they only really saw military solutions to problems. Hence the desire for a crushing military victory over France and Russia which would mean a clear German control of the bulk of the continent that would be a dire threat to British independence. As such while without Edward's influence the entente cordial might be weaker and take longer but I can't see an Anglo-German reproachment due to the vast distances between the two nations. Britain has rivalries with both France and Russia but their largely colonial and with Germany replacing France as the primary military power the latter isn't really seen as an invasion threat any more. Its possible that if say you reach 1918-20 without a war the growing perceived power of Russia could see this change but it would take a lot given the prolonged tensions between Britain and Germany. , and by extension, Russia, or come to a rapprochement with Germany, which might increase the danger to Britain's independence from a German hegemonic control of Europe. Given Germany's belligerence and its open support for the Boers, that might pose an awkward situation between Wilhelm II and George V. In the end, it might be inevitable for Britain and France to come a bit closer, but would have to find another willing ally that could join the Anglo-French club. Portugal, even if it was greatly weakened, might be a good choice, given the historical long relations between England and Portugal. I also think there could also be a good opening for more improved relations between Britain and Portugal, and it might involve the Second Boer War. d) It might be possible to complete a railway to Vladivostok earlier but I think that is likely to prompt earlier actions from Japan. Its more complicated with the civil war currently in China, Russian attempts to detach Inner Mongolia and both Russia and Japan being interested in Manchuria but its in Japan's interests to go before the railway is effectively completed. They could well lose but its in their interests to attempt such. what's left of their share of Manchuria if the Russians decide to occupy and steal the northern half. Even a weakened China that loses some territory could still end up posing a threat to both Russia and Japan, although if the US is desperate for an Asian ally that won't undermine its interest, China would naturally fit the bill. The only problem with this would be the Chinese Exclusion Act, which kinda puts another damper on Sino-American relations, although the US government can make an exception by exempting the US overseas territories in the Pacific and perhaps the Caribbean from the Chinese Exclusion Act. e) The problem is Tirpitz and the Kaiser are more interested in a prestige fleet showing Germany's economic and military power than simply being able to challenge Britain's trade routes by the most efficient means. Battleships are the symbol of naval power and demonstrate industrial power by being able to build them, especially in large numbers. Coupled with the facts that subs are still fairly simple and very limited in factors like range and also that attacks on commercial shipping from ambush would be totally illegal I can't see Germany trying such an approach until its been made clear to them that they can't win by the big ship route. . Given that Germany is more of a land power, it would only make sense when they're improving ties with Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. There might also be an interesting angle regarding a possible war involving the Ottoman Empire that I could examine. In addition to a potential Armenian rebellion, there's also Italy's hunger for Ottoman Triploitania and a general Balkan War that may erupt. Perhaps it might be the Italians that could join this Balkan League, despite not being a Balkan power itself. An interesting reward could be in the cards for Italy if it joined the Balkan Wars against the Ottomans, and that would be what's left of Albania that hasn't been partitioned between Serbia, Montenegro, and Greece. Rump Albania, along with Ottoman Tripolitania, would be the realistic goal for the Italians. There could also be an additional opportunity for a rapprochement between France and Italy: perhaps trading Italian Eritrea to France for let's say, Tunisia. The Italians were also obsessed with getting Tunisia, though the French beat them to it.
Replying to a few points highlighted above. i) I think Britain would ultimately decide on an agreement with France because Germany is the greater threat. That almost certainly means sooner or later some agreement between Britain and Russia. OTL this was probably helped by the Japanese victory over Russia for two reasons. It redirected Russian attention towards Europe. Probably more importantly it caused serious concerns in both London and Paris because with their respective alliances with the combatants they could have ended up in a war with each other than both were desperate to avoid. [I.e. if Britain had had a stronger reaction to the Dogger Bank Incident and ended up going to war with Russia over it. The former factor here could be removed if Japan loses its clash with Russia but Russia is still likely to be concerned about the growing power of Germany. Plus if the Ottomans increasingly swing toward the central powers that is another incentive for Britain and Russia to sort out their primarily colonial disputes.
This could change if the two end up in a major clash, even if largely diplomatic, over Russian encroachment in China as its in the interests of Britain to avoid such and most of all any general partition of China.
Portugal isn't a significant power and France needs Russia as a military counter to the German army so the Franco-Russian alliance is going to stay barring something very extreme which seems unlikely.
ii) China might become a significant player if the reformist bloc was to win quickly but its still going to need a pretty long time to regroup and build up its own military power as anything other than a deterrent in that it would simply throw men in a prolonged guerrilla war against any attacker making it too costly for the attacker, a bit like the KMT OTL against Japan. Also I think it would need either some conflict like WWI to greatly reduce the power and will of the dominant states to intervene militarily or a powerful external ally willing to go to bat alongside them. A prolonged civil war would be disastrous for China and even worse if the reactionary group ended up winning.
Another factor here is that to gain widespread support for reform probably needs a sizeable upsurge in national feeling, which was occurring to a degree but that would be fatal for the Manchu dynasty under either claimant.
iii) Although being British my viewpoint and sources could be somewhat bias but that seems to be pretty much a definition of Wilhelm II. See the recent reports on the WWI day by day where he - along with other German figures, especially in the military seem totally delusional, as well as distinctly infantile at times about the crisis facing Germany even as their position and power collapses.
Germany needed Britain to be at least neutral and shouldn't have followed Tirpitz's obsession with building a large fleet to challenge Britain. Coupled with the massive and powerful German army it made for an existential threat to Britain. It could easily have obtained a friendly neutrality by not doing so much to antagonize Britain and with different policies could have maintained close relations with Britain. Part of this was actually the underestimation of German strength in a long battle, especially concerning Russia, along with the obsessive belief in a quick and decision military victory.
Admittedly using hindsight as that can't be avoided but with different policies and avoiding either provoking Britain into hostility or a direct attack on Belgium they could easily have had a WWI type conflict with Britain as an actual ally or at the least a very friendly neutral. Which would have pretty much ensured victory for Germany and its allies.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 10, 2023 2:27:12 GMT
i) I think Britain would ultimately decide on an agreement with France because Germany is the greater threat. That almost certainly means sooner or later some agreement between Britain and Russia. OTL this was probably helped by the Japanese victory over Russia for two reasons. It redirected Russian attention towards Europe. Probably more importantly it caused serious concerns in both London and Paris because with their respective alliances with the combatants they could have ended up in a war with each other than both were desperate to avoid. [I.e. if Britain had had a stronger reaction to the Dogger Bank Incident and ended up going to war with Russia over it. The former factor here could be removed if Japan loses its clash with Russia but Russia is still likely to be concerned about the growing power of Germany. Plus if the Ottomans increasingly swing toward the central powers that is another incentive for Britain and Russia to sort out their primarily colonial disputes. Conversely, if Russia had lost a war in Europe, it would redirect much of its efforts and attention towards Asia. Seeing as Russia and the Ottoman Empire would have conflicting interests, it might also be possible for Britain and Russia to come to an agreement. However, Britain and the Ottomans also have complimentary interests in containing Russia as well, and Germany would be in an agreement on preventing Russia from getting too powerful. This could change if the two end up in a major clash, even if largely diplomatic, over Russian encroachment in China as its in the interests of Britain to avoid such and most of all any general partition of China.
Portugal isn't a significant power and France needs Russia as a military counter to the German army so the Franco-Russian alliance is going to stay barring something very extreme which seems unlikely. I would definitely agree on the Franco-Russian alliance remaining a thing. Needless to say, if for some odd reason that Britain and Germany did end up mending their strained ties, then France and Russia would be more motivated to mend their ties with Japan. Although there could also be a chance that Wilhelm II might also want to mend ties with Russia as well, given the failed attempt to pass the Treaty of Bjorko, which was a mutual defense treaty between the German and Russian Empires. This was also how we ended up getting the Willy-Nicky correspondence as well. I also agree that Portugal isn't that much of a significant power, although their contribution in WWI was sadly not paid attention by the other major Allied powers. ii) China might become a significant player if the reformist bloc was to win quickly but its still going to need a pretty long time to regroup and build up its own military power as anything other than a deterrent in that it would simply throw men in a prolonged guerrilla war against any attacker making it too costly for the attacker, a bit like the KMT OTL against Japan. Also I think it would need either some conflict like WWI to greatly reduce the power and will of the dominant states to intervene militarily or a powerful external ally willing to go to bat alongside them. A prolonged civil war would be disastrous for China and even worse if the reactionary group ended up winning.
Another factor here is that to gain widespread support for reform probably needs a sizeable upsurge in national feeling, which was occurring to a degree but that would be fatal for the Manchu dynasty under either claimant. The reformist bloc being backed by Britain and France, plus to a lesser extent, Russia, might give the reformists the advantage, but the reactionaries are still allies of the ailing Cixi. There's also another faction that is forgotten about, and that is the Mutual Pact for the Defense of the Southeast, which is a group of semi-independent Chinese officers that are tasked with putting down the Boxer rebels, either independent of the Qing government, or sometimes in cooperation with them. Whoever obtains the cooperation of this quasi-renegade group, would theoretically become the new power in China. iii) Although being British my viewpoint and sources could be somewhat bias but that seems to be pretty much a definition of Wilhelm II. See the recent reports on the WWI day by day where he - along with other German figures, especially in the military seem totally delusional, as well as distinctly infantile at times about the crisis facing Germany even as their position and power collapses.
Germany needed Britain to be at least neutral and shouldn't have followed Tirpitz's obsession with building a large fleet to challenge Britain. Coupled with the massive and powerful German army it made for an existential threat to Britain. It could easily have obtained a friendly neutrality by not doing so much to antagonize Britain and with different policies could have maintained close relations with Britain. Part of this was actually the underestimation of German strength in a long battle, especially concerning Russia, along with the obsessive belief in a quick and decision military victory.
Admittedly using hindsight as that can't be avoided but with different policies and avoiding either provoking Britain into hostility or a direct attack on Belgium they could easily have had a WWI type conflict with Britain as an actual ally or at the least a very friendly neutral. Which would have pretty much ensured victory for Germany and its allies. Wilhelm could be viewed as delusional, but his delusion is rather tame, compared to that of Hitler. On the other hand, Germany could have also been economically competitive against the established traditional powers of Europe by enhancing its industrial power a bit further with turning much of its colonies into a kind of proto-economic trading bloc. German technical and industrial expertise, combined with say, Austrian or Russian manpower, would have empowered Germany a lot in the economical and commercial sense. Taking advantage of its position as a land power could have been a good option for the Germans, as it can lessen its reliance on maritime trade, which the British has a dominant position in spades. |
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stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on Nov 10, 2023 15:21:23 GMT
i) I think Britain would ultimately decide on an agreement with France because Germany is the greater threat. That almost certainly means sooner or later some agreement between Britain and Russia. OTL this was probably helped by the Japanese victory over Russia for two reasons. It redirected Russian attention towards Europe. Probably more importantly it caused serious concerns in both London and Paris because with their respective alliances with the combatants they could have ended up in a war with each other than both were desperate to avoid. [I.e. if Britain had had a stronger reaction to the Dogger Bank Incident and ended up going to war with Russia over it. The former factor here could be removed if Japan loses its clash with Russia but Russia is still likely to be concerned about the growing power of Germany. Plus if the Ottomans increasingly swing toward the central powers that is another incentive for Britain and Russia to sort out their primarily colonial disputes. Conversely, if Russia had lost a war in Europe, it would redirect much of its efforts and attention towards Asia. Seeing as Russia and the Ottoman Empire would have conflicting interests, it might also be possible for Britain and Russia to come to an agreement. However, Britain and the Ottomans also have complimentary interests in containing Russia as well, and Germany would be in an agreement on preventing Russia from getting too powerful. This could change if the two end up in a major clash, even if largely diplomatic, over Russian encroachment in China as its in the interests of Britain to avoid such and most of all any general partition of China.
Portugal isn't a significant power and France needs Russia as a military counter to the German army so the Franco-Russian alliance is going to stay barring something very extreme which seems unlikely. I would definitely agree on the Franco-Russian alliance remaining a thing. Needless to say, if for some odd reason that Britain and Germany did end up mending their strained ties, then France and Russia would be more motivated to mend their ties with Japan. Although there could also be a chance that Wilhelm II might also want to mend ties with Russia as well, given the failed attempt to pass the Treaty of Bjorko, which was a mutual defense treaty between the German and Russian Empires. This was also how we ended up getting the Willy-Nicky correspondence as well. I also agree that Portugal isn't that much of a significant power, although their contribution in WWI was sadly not paid attention by the other major Allied powers. ii) China might become a significant player if the reformist bloc was to win quickly but its still going to need a pretty long time to regroup and build up its own military power as anything other than a deterrent in that it would simply throw men in a prolonged guerrilla war against any attacker making it too costly for the attacker, a bit like the KMT OTL against Japan. Also I think it would need either some conflict like WWI to greatly reduce the power and will of the dominant states to intervene militarily or a powerful external ally willing to go to bat alongside them. A prolonged civil war would be disastrous for China and even worse if the reactionary group ended up winning.
Another factor here is that to gain widespread support for reform probably needs a sizeable upsurge in national feeling, which was occurring to a degree but that would be fatal for the Manchu dynasty under either claimant. The reformist bloc being backed by Britain and France, plus to a lesser extent, Russia, might give the reformists the advantage, but the reactionaries are still allies of the ailing Cixi. There's also another faction that is forgotten about, and that is the Mutual Pact for the Defense of the Southeast, which is a group of semi-independent Chinese officers that are tasked with putting down the Boxer rebels, either independent of the Qing government, or sometimes in cooperation with them. Whoever obtains the cooperation of this quasi-renegade group, would theoretically become the new power in China. iii) Although being British my viewpoint and sources could be somewhat bias but that seems to be pretty much a definition of Wilhelm II. See the recent reports on the WWI day by day where he - along with other German figures, especially in the military seem totally delusional, as well as distinctly infantile at times about the crisis facing Germany even as their position and power collapses.
Germany needed Britain to be at least neutral and shouldn't have followed Tirpitz's obsession with building a large fleet to challenge Britain. Coupled with the massive and powerful German army it made for an existential threat to Britain. It could easily have obtained a friendly neutrality by not doing so much to antagonize Britain and with different policies could have maintained close relations with Britain. Part of this was actually the underestimation of German strength in a long battle, especially concerning Russia, along with the obsessive belief in a quick and decision military victory.
Admittedly using hindsight as that can't be avoided but with different policies and avoiding either provoking Britain into hostility or a direct attack on Belgium they could easily have had a WWI type conflict with Britain as an actual ally or at the least a very friendly neutral. Which would have pretty much ensured victory for Germany and its allies. Wilhelm could be viewed as delusional, but his delusion is rather tame, compared to that of Hitler. On the other hand, Germany could have also been economically competitive against the established traditional powers of Europe by enhancing its industrial power a bit further with turning much of its colonies into a kind of proto-economic trading bloc. German technical and industrial expertise, combined with say, Austrian or Russian manpower, would have empowered Germany a lot in the economical and commercial sense. Taking advantage of its position as a land power could have been a good option for the Germans, as it can lessen its reliance on maritime trade, which the British has a dominant position in spades.
i) Fully agree. That was what happened to a degree after the Crimean war as it prompted Russia to look east.
ii) Ah seem to have misunderstood. Getting confused between the names of the two factions.
iii) Definitely not as deranged as Hitler but he seems to have had a very closed mind-set on things such as his personal power and the importance of the military in Germany. Germany could definitely have done better if it had concentrated more on industrial development. It was one of the two great industrial economies of the world as it was, alongside the US and had pretty much a monopoly of many aspects of the chemical industry.
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Post by TheRomanSlayer on Nov 11, 2023 5:17:59 GMT
Conversely, if Russia had lost a war in Europe, it would redirect much of its efforts and attention towards Asia. Seeing as Russia and the Ottoman Empire would have conflicting interests, it might also be possible for Britain and Russia to come to an agreement. However, Britain and the Ottomans also have complimentary interests in containing Russia as well, and Germany would be in an agreement on preventing Russia from getting too powerful. I would definitely agree on the Franco-Russian alliance remaining a thing. Needless to say, if for some odd reason that Britain and Germany did end up mending their strained ties, then France and Russia would be more motivated to mend their ties with Japan. Although there could also be a chance that Wilhelm II might also want to mend ties with Russia as well, given the failed attempt to pass the Treaty of Bjorko, which was a mutual defense treaty between the German and Russian Empires. This was also how we ended up getting the Willy-Nicky correspondence as well. I also agree that Portugal isn't that much of a significant power, although their contribution in WWI was sadly not paid attention by the other major Allied powers. The reformist bloc being backed by Britain and France, plus to a lesser extent, Russia, might give the reformists the advantage, but the reactionaries are still allies of the ailing Cixi. There's also another faction that is forgotten about, and that is the Mutual Pact for the Defense of the Southeast, which is a group of semi-independent Chinese officers that are tasked with putting down the Boxer rebels, either independent of the Qing government, or sometimes in cooperation with them. Whoever obtains the cooperation of this quasi-renegade group, would theoretically become the new power in China. Wilhelm could be viewed as delusional, but his delusion is rather tame, compared to that of Hitler. On the other hand, Germany could have also been economically competitive against the established traditional powers of Europe by enhancing its industrial power a bit further with turning much of its colonies into a kind of proto-economic trading bloc. German technical and industrial expertise, combined with say, Austrian or Russian manpower, would have empowered Germany a lot in the economical and commercial sense. Taking advantage of its position as a land power could have been a good option for the Germans, as it can lessen its reliance on maritime trade, which the British has a dominant position in spades.
i) Fully agree. That was what happened to a degree after the Crimean war as it prompted Russia to look east.
ii) Ah seem to have misunderstood. Getting confused between the names of the two factions.
iii) Definitely not as deranged as Hitler but he seems to have had a very closed mind-set on things such as his personal power and the importance of the military in Germany. Germany could definitely have done better if it had concentrated more on industrial development. It was one of the two great industrial economies of the world as it was, alongside the US and had pretty much a monopoly of many aspects of the chemical industry.
Given that ITTL, Russia might be occupied by the events in China and Mongolia, it may not be able to spare much of its efforts in the Balkan affair, though that could easily change if the Ottomans have their hands full with an Armenian rebellion. Prince Puwei would be known as the Yongnian Emperor, whule Prince Pujun would be the Guoliang Emperor. Those are the names of those two claimants. If Germany had developed more of its chemical industry, it would achieve significant breakthrough in the medical and industrial sectors where chemicals are involved. However, if we're talking about economic competition, then it would end up competing against the United States, which has both an industrial development that is just as powerful as Germany and a maritime tradition that's similar to the British. |
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