stevep
Fleet admiral
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Post by stevep on May 25, 2024 23:47:00 GMT
No Pearl Harbor allows the possibility the axis could’ve won World War II as Pearl Harbor prove more devastating and psychologically for the American allowing them to stomach the losses of World War II. Were the Japanese planes ready to strike at any day even months before the command came? If not, the Americans will have the opportunity to disperse their fleet, or otherwise prepared better.
I don't think this was the case at all. As 575 noted there were serious limitations on what CV forces were available at time in 41 and also the plan for the strike on Pearl itself came pretty late.
Furthermore the entire operation was risky as it involved a long trip through the north Pacific of something like a fortnight simply to reach the Hawaiian Islands. If war comes suddenly, unless its literally a few days prior to OTL and the fleet is already well on the way it would take quite a while to organise the forces and supplies to start them sailing to Pearl, let alone attack it. Once the war has started, as well as the possibility large elements of the Pacific fleet might be elsewhere its definitely not going to be taken anything like at the same level of surprise, along with the air units based on the islands.
Lordroel does raise a point that a successful attack on the USN at sea would do more damage, assuming they located the fleet in time to attack it, as ships sunk would go down in deep water with higher crew casualties and no real change to re-float sunken ships. However that would really need the Japanese to get lucky on the day of the attack because due to supply issues a Japanese CV force can't linger around the islands for any real time.
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 18, 2024 1:30:18 GMT
*bump* Meanwhile I've done a bit of research for the HM6 TL. As stated elsewhere, it'd be too weird to expect that a PoD in late May 1940 won't effect any of the possible PoDs in the next 18 months or so, all of which could give us a different Pacific War - or even none at all. Here's my list: (Sometimes I describe what happened IOTL, you can think up what might change. In many cases, it's obvious. And sometimes I describe what'd change.) - Konoye tricked pro-Axis Matsuoka by making a new cabinet when the latter was sick
- FDR deliberately dragged on negotiations to give Churchill time to reinforce British colonies like Singapore
- US don't demand immediate retreat from China, Indochina
- Other boycotts happen, but Japan still gets oil. Even if only from the Dutch.
- FDR and Konoye meet in Hawaii
- The Japanese will retreat from China - but take 25 years
- They can keep Manchuria
- They use a different war plan. Strike either the Philippines or Malaya.
- Someone convinces FDR that the emperor might stop the war, and he acts accordingly
- Kido gives his OK to prince Higashikuni as PM
- IJA OK with Oikawa as PM
- Attack on different date
- Special envoy Kurusu murdered by radicals (there was a reason he had to be very secretive)
- FDR's suggested Modus vivendi accepted
- Dean Acheson doesn't make the oil embargo that harsh (which he did while FDR was on the conference with Churchill)
- Japanese provoke the US to leave PH and meet them on the open sea
- Yoshikawa caught spying in Hawaii
- Some American notices an important decrypted message from the consulate
- The one or other carrier is still there
- On the return from PH, the Japanese take Midway (Yamamoto's idea)
- Someone notices that the Japanese sailors leaving have clothing and such for cold weather, so they are not going to the tropics
- US don't get last deadline (originally, dates like November 13th/20th/29th were given, before Japan said "OK, 30th at midnight")
- Someone notices that a specific date is given in the code (IOTL "1208")
- Since all Japanese ships use Tokyo time, and they have to cross several time zones, someone messes up
- The weather is better (high probability), radio warning gets through to Hawaii
- A submarine in the harbor is discovered on time
- They attack the dry docks and/or oil tanks
- Hull gets the note in time
- Yamamoto doesn't threaten to step back if his plan isn't accepted
- Purple isn't cracked
- It is, but they notice it
- They decide to conquer Hawaii
- US fleet unexpectedly sorties, submarines strike
- Marshall doesn't sleep that evening
- Marshall is around when the Japanese strike
- The airplanes are parked in a different way, so it's harder to catch them all
Quite some possibilities...
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
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Post by stevep on Aug 18, 2024 14:30:50 GMT
*bump* Meanwhile I've done a bit of research for the HM6 TL. As stated elsewhere, it'd be too weird to expect that a PoD in late May 1940 won't effect any of the possible PoDs in the next 18 months or so, all of which could give us a different Pacific War - or even none at all. Here's my list: (Sometimes I describe what happened IOTL, you can think up what might change. In many cases, it's obvious. And sometimes I describe what'd change.) - Konoye tricked pro-Axis Matsuoka by making a new cabinet when the latter was sick
- FDR deliberately dragged on negotiations to give Churchill time to reinforce British colonies like Singapore
- US don't demand immediate retreat from China, Indochina
- Other boycotts happen, but Japan still gets oil. Even if only from the Dutch.
- FDR and Konoye meet in Hawaii
- The Japanese will retreat from China - but take 25 years
- They can keep Manchuria
- They use a different war plan. Strike either the Philippines or Malaya.
- Someone convinces FDR that the emperor might stop the war, and he acts accordingly
- Kido gives his OK to prince Higashikuni as PM
- IJA OK with Oikawa as PM
- Attack on different date
- Special envoy Kurusu murdered by radicals (there was a reason he had to be very secretive)
- FDR's suggested Modus vivendi accepted
- Dean Acheson doesn't make the oil embargo that harsh (which he did while FDR was on the conference with Churchill)
- Japanese provoke the US to leave PH and meet them on the open sea
- Yoshikawa caught spying in Hawaii
- Some American notices an important decrypted message from the consulate
- The one or other carrier is still there
- On the return from PH, the Japanese take Midway (Yamamoto's idea)
- Someone notices that the Japanese sailors leaving have clothing and such for cold weather, so they are not going to the tropics
- US don't get last deadline (originally, dates like November 13th/20th/29th were given, before Japan said "OK, 30th at midnight")
- Someone notices that a specific date is given in the code (IOTL "1208")
- Since all Japanese ships use Tokyo time, and they have to cross several time zones, someone messes up
- The weather is better (high probability), radio warning gets through to Hawaii
- A submarine in the harbor is discovered on time
- They attack the dry docks and/or oil tanks
- Hull gets the note in time
- Yamamoto doesn't threaten to step back if his plan isn't accepted
- Purple isn't cracked
- It is, but they notice it
- They decide to conquer Hawaii
- US fleet unexpectedly sorties, submarines strike
- Marshall doesn't sleep that evening
- Marshall is around when the Japanese strike
- The airplanes are parked in a different way, so it's harder to catch them all
Quite some possibilities...
Max
A fair number of possibilities. Some of which I feel I can comment on: a) I can't see FDR dragging out negotiations having any difference. Japan was on a tight deadline because of the oil situation. If Roosevelt or any other US figure drags their feet I don't think the Japanese will fall for it, Especially since it would take several months before any substantial reinforcements arrived in Malaya and that would depend on events in Europe as well.
b) I do recall reading that japan was willing to withdraw from China as long as they kept Manchuria but that the US negotiation delibertely didn't pass that on to Roosevelt in case it was accepted. That was decades back and not sure how reliable the source was.
c) If the Japanese don't attack Pearl then it would make sense to not attack the US at all, only the allies. [Which from my point of view would be the most logical think for Japan if they refused to withdraw from China]. Have forces ready to hit the Philippines if the US declares war and this frees up KB for operations against any other target. The US has the issue of a dow which without direct attacks on US territory would be a boost to isolationists in America and then what do they do if Japan is now attacking the Philippines?
d) If a USN CV is there then its likely to go up in flames as CVs are bloody vulnerable when caught by surprise. Which would definitely hurt the US and the allies in the short term although the longer term impacts would be more difficult to tell. If say as a result of one less CV then Port Morseby falls then the Japanese might push further south, increasing their level of overstretch. If in one of the following battles the USN, being weaker, suffers another defeat with more losses then possibly their unable to contest Guadalcanal. - A similar thing if Japan launches the attack on another Sunday with minor changes depending on whether before or after the OTL date and how much of a time difference.
e) I'm not sure how practical taking Midway on the return from Pearl Harbour would be. The Japanese are desperately short of fuel, with some DDs having to be towed home IIRC. Also to take Midway wouldn't that need some marines and a ship transporting them which would further complicate the operation, in terms of possibly affecting the speed of the force and also increasing the fuel requirement. If that could be overcome then they might still be able to take Midway by surprise - not sure what was there on 7-12-41 - but holding it would be another issue.
f) Attacking the oil facilities has been suggested but I have seen a number of discussions of this and its argued frequently they weren't as vulnerable as often suggested. Plus either this occurs after the fleet and air force are attacked - in which case the Japanese have taken losses and the US is at least partially prepared, or instead of attacks on those targets in which case there is the danger of losses from the aircraft and possibly also the AA of a prepared fleet and naval base, at least after the 1st wave.
g) Any invasion of Hawaii would depend for approval on whatever the Japanese leadership were smoking as without massive changes its pretty much as impossible as you can get.
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 21, 2024 21:49:24 GMT
*bump* Meanwhile I've done a bit of research for the HM6 TL. As stated elsewhere, it'd be too weird to expect that a PoD in late May 1940 won't effect any of the possible PoDs in the next 18 months or so, all of which could give us a different Pacific War - or even none at all. Here's my list: (Sometimes I describe what happened IOTL, you can think up what might change. In many cases, it's obvious. And sometimes I describe what'd change.) - Konoye tricked pro-Axis Matsuoka by making a new cabinet when the latter was sick
- FDR deliberately dragged on negotiations to give Churchill time to reinforce British colonies like Singapore
- US don't demand immediate retreat from China, Indochina
- Other boycotts happen, but Japan still gets oil. Even if only from the Dutch.
- FDR and Konoye meet in Hawaii
- The Japanese will retreat from China - but take 25 years
- They can keep Manchuria
- They use a different war plan. Strike either the Philippines or Malaya.
- Someone convinces FDR that the emperor might stop the war, and he acts accordingly
- Kido gives his OK to prince Higashikuni as PM
- IJA OK with Oikawa as PM
- Attack on different date
- Special envoy Kurusu murdered by radicals (there was a reason he had to be very secretive)
- FDR's suggested Modus vivendi accepted
- Dean Acheson doesn't make the oil embargo that harsh (which he did while FDR was on the conference with Churchill)
- Japanese provoke the US to leave PH and meet them on the open sea
- Yoshikawa caught spying in Hawaii
- Some American notices an important decrypted message from the consulate
- The one or other carrier is still there
- On the return from PH, the Japanese take Midway (Yamamoto's idea)
- Someone notices that the Japanese sailors leaving have clothing and such for cold weather, so they are not going to the tropics
- US don't get last deadline (originally, dates like November 13th/20th/29th were given, before Japan said "OK, 30th at midnight")
- Someone notices that a specific date is given in the code (IOTL "1208")
- Since all Japanese ships use Tokyo time, and they have to cross several time zones, someone messes up
- The weather is better (high probability), radio warning gets through to Hawaii
- A submarine in the harbor is discovered on time
- They attack the dry docks and/or oil tanks
- Hull gets the note in time
- Yamamoto doesn't threaten to step back if his plan isn't accepted
- Purple isn't cracked
- It is, but they notice it
- They decide to conquer Hawaii
- US fleet unexpectedly sorties, submarines strike
- Marshall doesn't sleep that evening
- Marshall is around when the Japanese strike
- The airplanes are parked in a different way, so it's harder to catch them all
Quite some possibilities...
Max
A fair number of possibilities. Some of which I feel I can comment on: a) I can't see FDR dragging out negotiations having any difference. Japan was on a tight deadline because of the oil situation. If Roosevelt or any other US figure drags their feet I don't think the Japanese will fall for it, Especially since it would take several months before any substantial reinforcements arrived in Malaya and that would depend on events in Europe as well.
b) I do recall reading that japan was willing to withdraw from China as long as they kept Manchuria but that the US negotiation delibertely didn't pass that on to Roosevelt in case it was accepted. That was decades back and not sure how reliable the source was.
c) If the Japanese don't attack Pearl then it would make sense to not attack the US at all, only the allies. [Which from my point of view would be the most logical think for Japan if they refused to withdraw from China]. Have forces ready to hit the Philippines if the US declares war and this frees up KB for operations against any other target. The US has the issue of a dow which without direct attacks on US territory would be a boost to isolationists in America and then what do they do if Japan is now attacking the Philippines?
d) If a USN CV is there then its likely to go up in flames as CVs are bloody vulnerable when caught by surprise. Which would definitely hurt the US and the allies in the short term although the longer term impacts would be more difficult to tell. If say as a result of one less CV then Port Morseby falls then the Japanese might push further south, increasing their level of overstretch. If in one of the following battles the USN, being weaker, suffers another defeat with more losses then possibly their unable to contest Guadalcanal. - A similar thing if Japan launches the attack on another Sunday with minor changes depending on whether before or after the OTL date and how much of a time difference.
e) I'm not sure how practical taking Midway on the return from Pearl Harbour would be. The Japanese are desperately short of fuel, with some DDs having to be towed home IIRC. Also to take Midway wouldn't that need some marines and a ship transporting them which would further complicate the operation, in terms of possibly affecting the speed of the force and also increasing the fuel requirement. If that could be overcome then they might still be able to take Midway by surprise - not sure what was there on 7-12-41 - but holding it would be another issue.
f) Attacking the oil facilities has been suggested but I have seen a number of discussions of this and its argued frequently they weren't as vulnerable as often suggested. Plus either this occurs after the fleet and air force are attacked - in which case the Japanese have taken losses and the US is at least partially prepared, or instead of attacks on those targets in which case there is the danger of losses from the aircraft and possibly also the AA of a prepared fleet and naval base, at least after the 1st wave.
g) Any invasion of Hawaii would depend for approval on whatever the Japanese leadership were smoking as without massive changes its pretty much as impossible as you can get.
a) Maybe you don't believe it, but Toland says in "The rising sun" that this is exactly what happened.
b) I'm also not entirely sure and I do think it's possible that someone just goofed up. Not everyone in politics is as cunning as Machiavelli, not 100% of the time.
c) That's very probably what the US would do. Would the Japanese believe it? Some of them considered the Americans weak and cowardly, of course...
d) Yes - an advantage in the short term, but later not so much.
e) Well, Yamamoto wanted it. If it is impossible, I can't tell right now.
f) Probably. Still an interesting idea.
g) This one AH scenario book I read this year deemed it possible. But I think the authors exaggerated.
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1bigrich
Sub-lieutenant
Posts: 478
Likes: 611
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Post by 1bigrich on Aug 27, 2024 13:41:03 GMT
Two of the six Fleet Carriers - Shokaku and Zuikaku wasn't in commission untill 8 August 1941 and 25 September 1941.
Soryo was involved in the invasion of FIC September - October 1940 and its Airgroup was on Hainan Is. 15 July 1941 to beginning August with the ship arriving in Japan 7 August 1941 and entering a minor refit 22 September to 26 October 1941.
Hiryo had its Airgroup detached to Hainan Is. September 1940 and would undergo a refit 7 August to 15 September 1941.
Then there was a light Carrier and 2 escort Carriers.
So there would be periods where an accidental outbreak would be "unfortunate" like early August 1941 where one Fleet Carrier is in refit and the fifth just going into commission or late September where another Fleet Carrier in refit and the sixth only going into commission. Or summer 1941 with the Airgroups in training at Kagoshima preparing for Pearl Harbour. BTW the torpedoes for Pearl doesn't seem to have been ready untill mid November 1941 - narrow window for pulling it off.
Taranto 11-12 November 1940 had shown it possible to attack a port and the Plan wasn't ready untill 7 January 1941.
Have fun with dates!
Excellent points on the IJN's carrier availability. A few thoughts: The IJN had war gamed attacking Pearl Harbor as early as 1927 (See Zimm's Pearl Harbor: Strategy, Myths and Deceptions) when it was just an anchorage and not a base. Construction of the infrastructure to make it a base for the fleet really got under way in 1940. The IJN fully expected to lose a carrier or two in raiding Pearl Harbor. Nagumo was ordered to abort if he detected, unless it was in the last 24 hours before the raid. In that case, he was to proceed. It should be noted as well that the most experienced air crews were assigned Battleship Row, those of Akagi and Kaga. The less experienced Soryu and Hiryu crews were assigned the other side of Ford Island, where the carriers (except Enterprise) usually berthed. The green crews of Zuikaku and Shokaku were assigned the land targets, including Kaneohe Bay to cripple the ability of the USN to search for the attackers. In February 1941, FDR moved the Pacific Fleet from its base in San Diego to Pearl Harbor. Admiral James O. Richardson, CINCPAC, disagreed, believing the fleet would be exposed to attack. He was relieved of command for his stand, but history proved him right. In addition to 575's points on carrier availability, we also need to consider aircraft. Many of the smaller carriers were still carrying A5M Claude fighters at the time of Pearl Harbor. The Claude, like many Japanese carrier aircraft of the generation before the war, was seriously short ranged, having a range of about 650 miles, comparted to over 1000 miles for the A6M Zeke. (Take a look at the D1Y sometime, but I digress) Another consideration for the IJN might be the weakening of the Pacific Fleet in April 1941, as Yorktown and BatDiv 3 ( New Mexico, Idaho and Mississippi), along with a number of oilers, deployed to the Atlantic Fleet for Neutrality Patrol. The War Warning of November 1941 prompted Admiral Hart to order the USN gunboats to leave China for the Philippines. That seems a little late for an incident to start the war early, as the Kido Butai would be on the way to Pearl Harbor. I'm not sure how both sides could stumble into war in 1941. Perhaps an incident with the Asiatic Fleet. Houston had replace Augusta as flagship, maybe she's on a port visit in Chinese waters and is fired on and returns fire with the IJN and/or Japanese aircraft? Regards,
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 29, 2024 2:25:32 GMT
I've thought back and forth, but I think I won't use a chaotic start of war ITTL. Not sure yet about Midway. Or the day it should start.
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Post by Max Sinister on Aug 31, 2024 20:22:01 GMT
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lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,964
Likes: 49,369
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Post by lordroel on Aug 31, 2024 21:00:22 GMT
*bump* Meanwhile I've done a bit of research for the HM6 TL. As stated elsewhere, it'd be too weird to expect that a PoD in late May 1940 won't effect any of the possible PoDs in the next 18 months or so, all of which could give us a different Pacific War - or even none at all. Here's my list: (Sometimes I describe what happened IOTL, you can think up what might change. In many cases, it's obvious. And sometimes I describe what'd change.) - Konoye tricked pro-Axis Matsuoka by making a new cabinet when the latter was sick
- FDR deliberately dragged on negotiations to give Churchill time to reinforce British colonies like Singapore
- US don't demand immediate retreat from China, Indochina
- Other boycotts happen, but Japan still gets oil. Even if only from the Dutch.
- FDR and Konoye meet in Hawaii
- The Japanese will retreat from China - but take 25 years
- They can keep Manchuria
- They use a different war plan. Strike either the Philippines or Malaya.
- Someone convinces FDR that the emperor might stop the war, and he acts accordingly
- Kido gives his OK to prince Higashikuni as PM
- IJA OK with Oikawa as PM
- Attack on different date
- Special envoy Kurusu murdered by radicals (there was a reason he had to be very secretive)
- FDR's suggested Modus vivendi accepted
- Dean Acheson doesn't make the oil embargo that harsh (which he did while FDR was on the conference with Churchill)
- Japanese provoke the US to leave PH and meet them on the open sea
- Yoshikawa caught spying in Hawaii
- Some American notices an important decrypted message from the consulate
- The one or other carrier is still there
- On the return from PH, the Japanese take Midway (Yamamoto's idea)
- Someone notices that the Japanese sailors leaving have clothing and such for cold weather, so they are not going to the tropics
- US don't get last deadline (originally, dates like November 13th/20th/29th were given, before Japan said "OK, 30th at midnight")
- Someone notices that a specific date is given in the code (IOTL "1208")
- Since all Japanese ships use Tokyo time, and they have to cross several time zones, someone messes up
- The weather is better (high probability), radio warning gets through to Hawaii
- A submarine in the harbor is discovered on time
- They attack the dry docks and/or oil tanks
- Hull gets the note in time
- Yamamoto doesn't threaten to step back if his plan isn't accepted
- Purple isn't cracked
- It is, but they notice it
- They decide to conquer Hawaii
- US fleet unexpectedly sorties, submarines strike
- Marshall doesn't sleep that evening
- Marshall is around when the Japanese strike
- The airplanes are parked in a different way, so it's harder to catch them all
Quite some possibilities... Where is Yamamoto in command of the PH attack instead of Nagumo.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 4, 2024 15:25:05 GMT
*bump* Meanwhile I've done a bit of research for the HM6 TL. As stated elsewhere, it'd be too weird to expect that a PoD in late May 1940 won't effect any of the possible PoDs in the next 18 months or so, all of which could give us a different Pacific War - or even none at all. Here's my list: (Sometimes I describe what happened IOTL, you can think up what might change. In many cases, it's obvious. And sometimes I describe what'd change.) - Konoye tricked pro-Axis Matsuoka by making a new cabinet when the latter was sick
- FDR deliberately dragged on negotiations to give Churchill time to reinforce British colonies like Singapore
- US don't demand immediate retreat from China, Indochina
- Other boycotts happen, but Japan still gets oil. Even if only from the Dutch.
- FDR and Konoye meet in Hawaii
- The Japanese will retreat from China - but take 25 years
- They can keep Manchuria
- They use a different war plan. Strike either the Philippines or Malaya.
- Someone convinces FDR that the emperor might stop the war, and he acts accordingly
- Kido gives his OK to prince Higashikuni as PM
- IJA OK with Oikawa as PM
- Attack on different date
- Special envoy Kurusu murdered by radicals (there was a reason he had to be very secretive)
- FDR's suggested Modus vivendi accepted
- Dean Acheson doesn't make the oil embargo that harsh (which he did while FDR was on the conference with Churchill)
- Japanese provoke the US to leave PH and meet them on the open sea
- Yoshikawa caught spying in Hawaii
- Some American notices an important decrypted message from the consulate
- The one or other carrier is still there
- On the return from PH, the Japanese take Midway (Yamamoto's idea)
- Someone notices that the Japanese sailors leaving have clothing and such for cold weather, so they are not going to the tropics
- US don't get last deadline (originally, dates like November 13th/20th/29th were given, before Japan said "OK, 30th at midnight")
- Someone notices that a specific date is given in the code (IOTL "1208")
- Since all Japanese ships use Tokyo time, and they have to cross several time zones, someone messes up
- The weather is better (high probability), radio warning gets through to Hawaii
- A submarine in the harbor is discovered on time
- They attack the dry docks and/or oil tanks
- Hull gets the note in time
- Yamamoto doesn't threaten to step back if his plan isn't accepted
- Purple isn't cracked
- It is, but they notice it
- They decide to conquer Hawaii
- US fleet unexpectedly sorties, submarines strike
- Marshall doesn't sleep that evening
- Marshall is around when the Japanese strike
- The airplanes are parked in a different way, so it's harder to catch them all
Quite some possibilities... Where is Yamamoto in command of the PH attack instead of Nagumo. Good question. Midway was his idea, so ideally he should pull it off. That is, on the way back from PH.
A Japanese Midway'd mean no Doolittle Raid, or at least much later.
And then? Trying to conquer Hawaii even, as in that AH scenario book "The Moscow Option"?
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lordroel
Administrator
Posts: 67,964
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Post by lordroel on Sept 4, 2024 15:35:52 GMT
[ And then? Trying to conquer Hawaii even, as in that AH scenario book "The Moscow Option"? Have the book, does it end with Germany in a Civil War and atom bombs.
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stevep
Fleet admiral
Posts: 24,832
Likes: 13,222
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Post by stevep on Sept 4, 2024 15:57:01 GMT
Where is Yamamoto in command of the PH attack instead of Nagumo. Good question. Midway was his idea, so ideally he should pull it off. That is, on the way back from PH.
A Japanese Midway'd mean no Doolittle Raid, or at least much later.
And then? Trying to conquer Hawaii even, as in that AH scenario book "The Moscow Option"?
I don't think a successful Japanese capture of Midway, which is unlikely in my opinion would necessarily rule out a Doolittle raid. After all Japan attacked Midway OTL because they thought the bombers came from Midway but that wasn't the case. However that the US gives a priority to retaking the island, or simply using them as bait to wear down the IJN trying to supply the isolated base they might decide they can't afford to risk two rare CV, especially after the loss of Saratoga, on such a mission - that is the Dolittle Raid.
Hawaii would be wankish territory given the strength the US could commit to its defence once on a war footing and could be very costly for the IJN to survive.
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Post by Max Sinister on Sept 4, 2024 18:09:10 GMT
[ And then? Trying to conquer Hawaii even, as in that AH scenario book "The Moscow Option"? Have the book, does it end with Germany in a Civil War and atom bombs. Yes, that was the one - with nukes on {Spoiler} Stuttgart and Nuremberg
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