Sons of Duarte II– A Portuguese timeline

[kasumigenx]

Duarte II’s ascenscion



Duarte would retire in Evora until his succession to Portugal in 1578, he was ill during that time but he would recover and he would later hear about the victories of the Bruneians against the Spanish in maintaining its independence which was helped by the Portuguese prior to the death of Sebastian I.



On 1578, Duarte II of Portugal would succeed in Portugal and on 1579 he would propose to the Bruneians in dividing the Island of Selurong or Luzon between the Bruneians and Portugal with Portuguese having trading rights in the Bruneian parts of Luzon and Palawan as Luzon is a part of the Portuguese claims to the Philippines according to the doctrine of discovery and the Treaty of Zaragosa and the Portuguese gaining the Castilian territories in Visayas and Mindanao.



Saiful Rijal of Brunei would accept the plans of Duarte II of Portugal dividing the Philippines to themselves.

[kasumigenx]

The Expulsion of the Spanish from the Philippines

On 1581, a Portuguese and Bruneian fleet would arrive in Manila and defeat the Spanish which would result in the expulsion of the Spanish from the Philippines, this is the second phase of the Castilian War which included the Portuguese, Castilians and Bruneians.



The Bruneians would have the daughter of Pengiran Seri Lela, her husband, and the ruling descendants of Dayang Kaylangitan as his own captives which he would have as part of the settlement to the Spanish as he would consider them as traitors and he had have their possessions confiscated.



On 1584, Duarte II of Portugal and Saiful Rijal would make a settlement with Philip II of Spain wherein the captives of Saiful Rijal, the ruling descendants of Dayang Kaylangitan would be sent into Exile to Mexico, the decision of Saiful Rijal to expel the descendants of Kaylangitan and Pengiran Seri Lela was to secure the Island of Luzon or Selurong, this settlement would be followed by the marriage of Isabel Clara Eugenia to Duarte II in 1585.



Saiful Rijal would recognize the Portuguese rule in the former territory of Caboloan and Samtoy which would be called Nova Portugal or New Portugal and Visayas and Mindanao which would be called Eduardinhas as Saiful Rijal and Duarte II had already talked about partitioning Luzon or Selurong between them.



The historians would not separate the reigns/eras of Sulayman I of Selurong and Saiful Rijal as Sulayman was the assigned Sultan of the Island of Selurong formally organizing Islam in the island, he is a descendant of the Sultan Bolkiah like Saiful Rijal and the Sulu Sultans.

[kasumigenx]

Philip II’s loss

Philip II would deal with the loss of the Philippines from the Bruneians and the Portuguese, the partition of the Philippines was painful for the Spanish especially for their ruler, Philip II who was licking his wounds after the loss of the country of the Philippines in 1585 after the settlement of the Bruneians and the Portuguese, Philip II would have another problem in the Dutch Protestants who are rebelling in the Low Countries which are supported by the English.

Philip II would have signed Peace with the Bruneians and the Portuguese and have married his daughter, Isabella Clara Eugenia to Duarte II of Portugal and now having no foothold in East Asia, he would have another fish to fry which is whether to make peace with the Dutch or to reclaim the Protestant parts of the Netherlands, and this struggle would have been inherited by his son, Philip III.

[kasumigenx]

Portugal and Japanese relationship

The Portuguese have destroyed a source of missionaries to Japan which is Spain and had also decided to focus their own missionary work in the lands that they had hold as Eduardinhas and Nova Portugal still has pagans and decided to lessen their trade to Japan and due to that the balance of power in East Asia is again balanced and the Ming and Goryeo would be able to fight the Manchus again.



The Portuguese would have allowed the Wokou and Chinese Pirates to stay in Nova Portugal and for the Japanese to trade in Nova Portugal which would foster their existing ties with the Japanese which would contrast to the population of Selurong only wanting to trade with the Chinese and Japanese but they would refuse to really mingle and mix with them due to the religious barriers.



The fact that the Portuguese and Spanish would no longer interfere with the Christians would mean that the Christians in Japan would no longer be under the control of the Portuguese and the Spanish and would be under the control of the Shogun.



Note: Both the Shimabara Revolt and the Imjin war are both butterflied here.

[stevep]

  kasumigenx ,

   Interesting idea and one for once I feel I know enough to comment/ask question.  The PoD seems to be that the Portuguese royal dynasty isn't effectively wiped out in 1578 and this Duarte is a clear claimant accepted as being king.  As such Portugal is not absorbed into Spain and similarly not only wins a war in the Far East, driving the Spanish from the Philippines but also manages to defend their homeland from Philip II during this war.  Also they don't take over the Spanish contacts in Japan so less impact there from western contact this early.  Which if I read it rightly means there's no missionary work in Japan, the later anti-Christian purges and as a result no unification of Japan under warlords leading to the invasion of Korea.  As a result the Ming are stronger and able to at least contest with the Manchu if not drive them off.

  Two questions come to mind.

a)  What are Portuguese relations with the Dutch like?  They may be still co-religionists with the Spanish and also have mended bridges since Philip has married his daughter to Duarte but would there be the same level of conflict with the Dutch as OTL.  Likely to be some clashes in the spice islands as the trade from there is so rich and either could end up winning or the region ends up divided, with possibly other powers ending up with some possessions here.  However may not have the same level of conflict which saw the Portuguese driven from the Cape, Ceylon and the east Indies and even more likely probably the Dutch threat to Brazil could well not occur.  Those steps would make the Portuguese empire a good bit stronger, at least for a while.

b)  Philip has been hurt and Spain is markedly weaker, both by the loss of their possessions in the Philippines but far more from the loss of Portuguese resources.  This will have impacts on his operations against the Dutch and English so despite Philip's character he might end up accepting Dutch independence before he dies or simply the Spanish empire would be significantly weaker economically with less resources and possibly worse defeats in those battles.

  A related factor is I think the prime importance for Spain in the Philippines is probably that their a stepping stone to China as there was a rich trade between China and New Spain [Mexico] across the Pacific.  With the Philippines gone does Spain seek to find a new base, say Taiwan or somewhere in the Ryukuu Islands, most obviously Okinawa.  If so do they succeed.

  Steve

[kasumigenx]

Aug 25, 2024 13:28:14 GMT stevep said:

  kasumigenx ,

   Interesting idea and one for once I feel I know enough to comment/ask question.  The PoD seems to be that the Portuguese royal dynasty isn't effectively wiped out in 1578 and this Duarte is a clear claimant accepted as being king.  As such Portugal is not absorbed into Spain and similarly not only wins a war in the Far East, driving the Spanish from the Philippines but also manages to defend their homeland from Philip II during this war.  Also they don't take over the Spanish contacts in Japan so less impact there from western contact this early.  Which if I read it rightly means there's no missionary work in Japan, the later anti-Christian purges and as a result no unification of Japan under warlords leading to the invasion of Korea.  As a result the Ming are stronger and able to at least contest with the Manchu if not drive them off.

  Two questions come to mind.

a)  What are Portuguese relations with the Dutch like?  They may be still co-religionists with the Spanish and also have mended bridges since Philip has married his daughter to Duarte but would there be the same level of conflict with the Dutch as OTL.  Likely to be some clashes in the spice islands as the trade from there is so rich and either could end up winning or the region ends up divided, with possibly other powers ending up with some possessions here.  However may not have the same level of conflict which saw the Portuguese driven from the Cape, Ceylon and the east Indies and even more likely probably the Dutch threat to Brazil could well not occur.  Those steps would make the Portuguese empire a good bit stronger, at least for a while.

b)  Philip has been hurt and Spain is markedly weaker, both by the loss of their possessions in the Philippines but far more from the loss of Portuguese resources.  This will have impacts on his operations against the Dutch and English so despite Philip's character he might end up accepting Dutch independence before he dies or simply the Spanish empire would be significantly weaker economically with less resources and possibly worse defeats in those battles.

  A related factor is I think the prime importance for Spain in the Philippines is probably that their a stepping stone to China as there was a rich trade between China and New Spain [Mexico] across the Pacific.  With the Philippines gone does Spain seek to find a new base, say Taiwan or somewhere in the Ryukuu Islands, most obviously Okinawa.  If so do they succeed.

  Steve

The new King is Duarte of Guimaraes instead of Henry the Cardinal King so Philip II has no chance to succeed as King of Portugal.
The missionary work is weakened due to Portugal focusing on their colonies and them getting rid of the Spanish missionaries in Japan which means that the Christians don't become too strong to be a concern, and the Portuguese will not help the Japanese to gain weapons.

I think Spain could try to gain Taiwan but since it is in the Portuguese part of the Treaty of Tordesillas and Zaragossa they might not try to get it unless they allow Portugal to gain the OTL parts of Brazil.

[kasumigenx]

Isabel Clara Eugenia

Isabel Clara Eugenia and Duarte II of Portugal would have two surviving children namely, Manuel(June 2, 1586) and Duarte(May 2, 1591) which would have secured the succession of Portugal, she would be a dutiful wife and daughter that she would avoid her husband in the bedroom once the succession of Portugal have been secured.

Isabel Clara Eugenia would hate her husband as she married after defeating her father and due to that Duarte II would not force her to continue consummating the marriage and she would focus on religious matters until the death of Duarte II.

[kasumigenx]

Spanish East Indies after the loss of the Philippines

With Spain losing their colony of the Philippines, they would only have Guam as their foothold near Asia without the Portuguese interested in it, it would stagnate for a while due to the loss of the Philippines as a colony for the Spanish, Philip III of Spain would accept the loss of the Philippines completely from the Bruneians and the Portuguese while the Portuguese would connect Nova Portugal and Macau and create a bustling trade route in the former Spanish colony of the Philippines which would make Portugal a richer country due to its colonies.



The Island of Guam would be the remnant of the Spanish attempt to create a colony in East Asia that had already failed and the Spanish would instead focus on other things like the Netherlands which is revolting against the Spanish at this point.



Portugal would have an issue in the Americas now that they have gained the Philippines is that they would never be able to expand the colony of Brazil because of that and the Spanish would be more able to explore and exploit the Amazon.