Post by Tipsyfish on Apr 2, 2016 21:55:27 GMT
The Sudetenland Crisis started in February of 1938 when Hitler demanded self-determination for all Germans in Austria and Czechoslovakia. This lead the to the Auchluss in Austria, and the Munich agreement in which Czechoslovakia had to secede the Sudetenland to Germany. Shortly there-after, they lost the southern third of Slovakia to Hungry, and the town of Tesin and the surrounding area to Poland. The territory seceded incorporated most of their per-existing fortifications and industry. With that gone and the Slovaks demand for independence, the rump of Czechoslovakia was invaded a year later, and was taken over with minimal resistance. But what if the Munich Agreement never happened? Or the President of Czechoslovak at the time decided to fight Germany in 1938 to retain the land, here's one scenario.
The Czech army at that time was stretching from the Polish border to the Hungarian border had the strength of around 42 divisions, they manned a massive network of field fortifications that had been in construction since 1935, and while not complete, the existing fortifications combined with the natural defenses of the Sudetenland, acted as a functional defense. Facing them was three armies ( North, Center, South) totaling 50 divisions of the German army, that stretched from Moravia to the Hungarian border. While the man power facing each other was relatively equal for the time, the German outnumbered the Czechs in tanks by five to one, and in aircraft by three and a half to one, however, German tanks while superior in number,were lacking in quality compared to the Czech counter-part in both armor and armament, and many of the men were activated reservists in their forties and older, this, coupled with only having enough fuel for three weeks, meant that the German army was stronger in numbers then in long-term capabilities. The Germans did have one advantage though, on September the 17th, Hitler had established the Sudetendeutsches Freikorps numbering some 26,000 men, recruited from the Sudetenland Germans, some that were even from the Czech army. However, most were ill-trained and ill-equipped by October the first, giving little in the way of assistance to the German army. No western power had guaranteed Czech protection in the advent of German aggression, the Soviet Union, had guaranteed a supplement of 350,000 men and equipment should the independence of Czechoslovakia be threatened.
On October the first, Fall Grun is put into affect, large elements of the Luftwaffe strike against the Czech fortifications, roads, and main railways towards the front, soon after, German launches a full-scale invasion of Czechoslovakia. German forces in the center steadily advance until hitting fortifications to the immediate west of Pilsen, The Czechs manage to hold out and delay the Germans for four days before withdrawing in an orderly fashion to a secondary line to the south-west of Prague, in the north, German forces manage to break through the first line of defenses in Pomerania, but are checked after advancing a few miles. In the south, German forces comprised mainly of non-integrated Austrian units, attempted to take the heavy fortifications to the south of Brno and east of Bratislava to little avail. By the tenth of October, Czech forces are in a full-scale retreat all along the line, setting up positions to the east of Ostrava with a line running to Bratislava. At this point Soviet forces start to move in through northern Rumania, and counter-attack, pushing German forces back to Olomouc before being driven back themselves, suffering heavy casualties. The front stabilizes by the 21st, and the Czechs, worried about the Poles and Hungarians joining, and general discontent and strain within the army, call for peace terms. Germany, seeing that they are starting to run low on fuel and starting to suffer from economic hard-ships, send terms to annex the whole of the Sudetenland and parts of Bohemia-Morvia. The Czech government, not willing to continue fighting agrees.
The most likely out-come of this scenario would be that the Soviet Union would continually try to interfere with Germany plans of expansion. Meaning that a non-aggression treaty between the two would be very unlikely. This also shows the in-ability for Germany to wage a large scale and drawn-out conflict, simply for the lack of fuel and food sources, which the Soviet Union provided in OTL. The German military would be retaliative shambles after this campaign, captured Czech stores would allow the Germans to muster a larger army, but would mean that the force could only hope to win against second and third rate military powers. Trying to forge western alliances against the USSR could turn out to be the main foreign policy, as the western powers may view the Soviet Union as the larger threat to European stability.
The Czech army at that time was stretching from the Polish border to the Hungarian border had the strength of around 42 divisions, they manned a massive network of field fortifications that had been in construction since 1935, and while not complete, the existing fortifications combined with the natural defenses of the Sudetenland, acted as a functional defense. Facing them was three armies ( North, Center, South) totaling 50 divisions of the German army, that stretched from Moravia to the Hungarian border. While the man power facing each other was relatively equal for the time, the German outnumbered the Czechs in tanks by five to one, and in aircraft by three and a half to one, however, German tanks while superior in number,were lacking in quality compared to the Czech counter-part in both armor and armament, and many of the men were activated reservists in their forties and older, this, coupled with only having enough fuel for three weeks, meant that the German army was stronger in numbers then in long-term capabilities. The Germans did have one advantage though, on September the 17th, Hitler had established the Sudetendeutsches Freikorps numbering some 26,000 men, recruited from the Sudetenland Germans, some that were even from the Czech army. However, most were ill-trained and ill-equipped by October the first, giving little in the way of assistance to the German army. No western power had guaranteed Czech protection in the advent of German aggression, the Soviet Union, had guaranteed a supplement of 350,000 men and equipment should the independence of Czechoslovakia be threatened.
On October the first, Fall Grun is put into affect, large elements of the Luftwaffe strike against the Czech fortifications, roads, and main railways towards the front, soon after, German launches a full-scale invasion of Czechoslovakia. German forces in the center steadily advance until hitting fortifications to the immediate west of Pilsen, The Czechs manage to hold out and delay the Germans for four days before withdrawing in an orderly fashion to a secondary line to the south-west of Prague, in the north, German forces manage to break through the first line of defenses in Pomerania, but are checked after advancing a few miles. In the south, German forces comprised mainly of non-integrated Austrian units, attempted to take the heavy fortifications to the south of Brno and east of Bratislava to little avail. By the tenth of October, Czech forces are in a full-scale retreat all along the line, setting up positions to the east of Ostrava with a line running to Bratislava. At this point Soviet forces start to move in through northern Rumania, and counter-attack, pushing German forces back to Olomouc before being driven back themselves, suffering heavy casualties. The front stabilizes by the 21st, and the Czechs, worried about the Poles and Hungarians joining, and general discontent and strain within the army, call for peace terms. Germany, seeing that they are starting to run low on fuel and starting to suffer from economic hard-ships, send terms to annex the whole of the Sudetenland and parts of Bohemia-Morvia. The Czech government, not willing to continue fighting agrees.
The most likely out-come of this scenario would be that the Soviet Union would continually try to interfere with Germany plans of expansion. Meaning that a non-aggression treaty between the two would be very unlikely. This also shows the in-ability for Germany to wage a large scale and drawn-out conflict, simply for the lack of fuel and food sources, which the Soviet Union provided in OTL. The German military would be retaliative shambles after this campaign, captured Czech stores would allow the Germans to muster a larger army, but would mean that the force could only hope to win against second and third rate military powers. Trying to forge western alliances against the USSR could turn out to be the main foreign policy, as the western powers may view the Soviet Union as the larger threat to European stability.
