nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 8, 2024 22:12:06 GMT
... not sure if this is sufficiently sunstantial for avoiding thread-necroing (last post more than a year old) ... therefore I open up another thread 
As I've never actually referred and answered to the opening post in the above thread I would like to do so now as much as I can. Though in a rather ... elaborated if not to say elongated manner 
First I like to clarify my ... 'timeframe':
The decision for an 'East-First' deployment and plan of operations ITTL will be made on 1st August during the deliberations about the not answered russian ultimatum upon IOTL general mobilisation was declared.
The PoD: - Jagow ... on arrival at the Berlin Palace Star Hall where the signing of declaration of mobilisation had just happened (that's OTL) finds the heart to proclaim the famous/infamous Lichnowsky telegram' content rightaway.
What he did IOTL only after he got the fully completed deciphered telegram. Until then he had seen only a part of it but the one most important offering the neutrality of Britain in case Germany would not attack France as well as guaranteeing France' 'passivity. {The full telegram}
Sir E. Grey has just told me through Sir W. Tyrrell that he hopes to be able to make me some revelations this afternoon as a result of a recent ministerial meeting which would be calculated to prevent the great catastrophe. What he means by this, according to Sir Williams' hints, is that if we did not attack France, England would also remain neutral and guarantee France's passivity. Find out more this afternoon.
Sir E. Grey has just called me on the telephone and asked me whether I thought I could say that if France remained neutral in a German-Russian war we would not attack the French. I told him that I could take responsibility for this and he will use this statement at today's Cabinet meeting.
Addendum: Sir W. Tyrrell urgently requested me to ensure that our troops did not violate the French frontier. Everything depended on it. The French troops had retreated when one of them had crossed the frontier.
A 'reaffirmation' of this arrived in Berlin at 18:04 causing with the Kaiser still being members of above named 'crown council' some small party the Kaiser throwing a round of his preferred pink champagne.
However ...
ITTL when the above is revealed Moltke as well as Falkenhayn and their entourage are still in the palace ... the mobilisation order has NOT yet left the room ... and causes the same reaction with the members of this council as of OTL ... only some hour earlier: - The Kaisers decision to NOT to deploy against the West first
- The Kaisers demand to 'just turn East'
- The firece and physically (maybe minor brain stroke as the Kaisers adjutand v.Mutius suspected) overwhealing resistance - as futile as IOTL - of Moltke
resulting in - No mobilisation - order is held back as another 24 hours or so to 'evaluate' the british offer wont harm.
- No intrusion into Luxembourg (therefore Grey is not asked about by Cambon)
- No intrusion/occupation of Kalisz or Czenstochau - for the moment
The answers to King George as well as Lichnowsky will be drafted similat to OTL by the folk present ... but with much lesser - if any, possibly arleady sent 'home' to get the Eastern Turn organised - influence at all of the militaries (Falkenhayn and Moltke) and therefore much more 'conciliatory' content.
Likely that Jagow remembering his talk with Goschen the day before about Grey inquiery if Germany will respect belgian integrity will now include a 'definitly positiv' answer of the same content as the french answer:
"OFC will Belgium be respected. ... as long as noone else compromises it."
(the second was also part of the french answer IOTL)
And also ... the (idiotic) telegram to v.Schoen in Paris with the demand of handing over the fortresses of Toul and Verdun for the duration of the crisis (btw: IOTL never mentioned before any french official) won't even be drafted. And Below-Saleske (german ambassador in Belgium) will get the URGENT message to burn unopened th enevlope he received by personal messenger (containing the 'ultimatum' regarding a passage for german troops).
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 8, 2024 22:32:17 GMT
Now for first 'changes' on the british side of things. ( as I intend NOT to dive down into the details of military matters in Berlin / Germany) ... ( at least for the time being ) - Grey will be called to the King but about an hour earlier ... to answer the latter what's going on regarding the Kaisers telegram.
He learns now for first time of the german leadership holding back from Belgium as well as from France - no invasions or threats of there too ...
But maybe the telegram of 'some misunderstanding' might still be formulated.
Arriving at the Foreign Office to get his handscribbling transformed into proper telegram ... Lichnowsky will be waiting to 'pester' him with the instructions he has received almost at the same time as the King the Kaisers telegram, driven by the will to wipe off the dissapointment he had to suffer with the non-offer of Grey at their meeting of 15:30.
It's now about 20:00 GMT instead of 21:00 when Grey came back IOTL.
Having passed on his notes - the "telegram of misunderstanding" will also be sent about an hour earlier ITTL - Lichnowsky will point out that there's now has the 'official' notion of full compliance with Greys demands upon Germany - esp. reg. Belgium - and ask if Grey won't be able to NOW give some (more) binding statement about a possible participation or rather non-participation of Britain in a still possible military confrontation on the continent. Maybe Grey plays the 'naval card' about the french northern coast as Cambon brought it up in his meeting with Grey at 16:00 (and been 'affirmed' about by Grey as well as Nicholson).Lichnowsky will give him a similar assurance as he gave already on the phonecall prior to todays cabinet regarding troops crossing into France (see Lichnowsky telegram above) that the german fleet will ofc refrain itself from the french northern coast as there isn't any need for. ... anymore now ...
Grey being him would thank him but still not do as wished and referr to the cabinet meeting the next day he then might present the case to the cabinet again. ... as he already told Cambon the same this afternoon.
Most likely Lichnowsky will pester Asquith with at least the same content (if not even more) the next morning as he did IOTL as well.
It's now abouth 20:30 GMT
Some more butterflies might now pop up regarding the several 'night activities' around the govermental quarters from 1st to 2nd August. ... but thats for the next post. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 9, 2024 10:24:09 GMT
Interesting but did Grey actually state he could confirm French non-involvement in the war if Germany only attacked Russia? That would seem unlikely as France and Russia had a clear defensive alliance if either was attacked by Germany and France was concerned about being left isolated against a markedly stronger Germany if Russia was heavily defeated. I can't see France agreeing to such a deal if they were actually approached.
I could see Britain being willing to stand aside if Germany respected the neutrality of the Low Countries although they would be concerned about any war and are likely to insist on no naval conflict in the English Channel, which would secure both the French north coast and British trade through those important waters. However someone is being disingenuous/vert stupid if its being said Britain could confirm French neutrality under such circumstances.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 9, 2024 12:04:22 GMT
Interesting but did Grey actually state he could confirm French non-involvement in the war if Germany only attacked (1) Russia? That would seem unlikely as France and Russia had a clear defensive alliance (2) if either was attacked by Germany and France was concerned about being left isolated against a markedly stronger Germany if Russia was heavily defeated. I can't see France agreeing to such a deal if they were actually approached. (3)
I could see Britain being willing to stand aside if Germany respected the neutrality of the Low Countries although they would be concerned about any war and are likely to insist on no naval conflict in the English Channel, which would secure both the French north coast and British trade through those important waters. However someone is being disingenuous/vert stupid if its being said Britain could confirm French neutrality under such circumstances.
That's one of the Great conundrums of history: what was actually exchanged between Tyrell and Lichnowsky in person as well as Lichnowsky and Grey on the phone that 1st August morning before the cabinet meeting.
It wasn't 'simply' denied but turned somewhat cloudy a 'misunderstanding'. Grey later gave - IIRC after the war - some ... 'explanation' Lichnowsky grundingly consented too (due to some political infighting and blackmailing at home). However: this explanation would have meant that Lichnowsky - a fluent English speaker - would have gotten numerous things wrong as well as syntax. ... I feel as difficult to accept.
What I've read about sounds like a miserable and poor pretext at best.
Also Tyrell made later only excuses about what was actually said on these occasions and never any evne remotly clear statement about this event. But unfortunatly we have no other witnesses about these talks than asumptions based on ... perceptions of persons of later times and interpretations and reinmterpretations of some or other have said or not said.
However ... as we are in 'diplomats talk': wording as well as syntax is of extrem importance regarding the meaning they're carrying. An art Lichnowsky was also rather competent in to decipher.
(1) Lichnowsky did NOT talked about a german attack upon Russia but 'simply' "German-Russian War" without any specification of how been brought on. (2) of which Grey stated to Cambon having no idea what the terms of their alliance might be and that Britain isn't any part of. Very likely he could and probably did assume what it was about but ... as the Foreign Secretary he thereby made clear it officially hadn't any role in his considerations. (3) I well agree with you. Nevertheless on the german side there was the perception England might have a leverage of whatver kind to such an effect. Maybe they thought Whitehall might 'threaten' Paris to choose between Russia and Britain.
Regarding this point about: guaranteeing' France' passivity ... there I imagine the greatest possibility of misunderstanding by overestimating some notion of 'influencing' Paris or something intended to mean 'at least make some questioning steps'. ... maybe. And the naval part of 'no war within the channel' will come up without a doubt. ... but the german leadership was 'happy' to consent IOTL also.
However ... stupid it might sound to us ... today ... 100 years + afterward ... given the 'blessing' of hindsight ... at that time it was rendered a worth to be considered possibility.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 9, 2024 12:34:38 GMT
... as I'm still at setting up the conditions of my answers to the parent thread ...IOTL at late evening/night of 1st to 2nd August there were a few 'considerable' events. 1st It seems Grey was IOTL still at the Foreign Office was informed at about 21:00 to 21:30 about the german "DoW" against Russia by some to us widely unknown line of communication which also let to Churchill being informed about at the admirality as it seems shortly before 22:00 by some 'source' within the Foreign Office.
The 'official' telegram from Buchanan informing about has been recorded at the Foreign Office at 23:15 GMT.
Despite the timetable ITTL shifted about an hour ... his inrun with Lichnowski might have lasted long enough to see said info ITTL as well before leaving. But ITTL he might already been informed by Lichnowsky about some "very serious declaration" to the russian goverment. Jagow could have informed him about as part of his intructions and given him the 'proper' interpretation of the as Jagow himself stated how 'unfortunate' - but therefore 'interpretable' - the wording of the declaration was; something as to let it be undertsood as a very VERY LAAAST warning before military measure are to be taken by the german goverment.
... hasn't the Kaiser 'just' withdrawn the already signed mobilisation? 2nd With the above said Grey would return to his (temporary) home at Haldanes house as IOTL and meet there his friend an landlord as well as Crewe then Sectretary for the State of India at about 21:30 to discuss the events of the evening. Grey likely still trying to 'secure' some support for France. ... Very likely as IOTL they would rush to Asquith to discuss things with him as well where they would have to wait as OTL as the PM has an evening 'soiree' for some rounds of Bridge. When Grey eventually talked to Asquith he asked about the naval pledge he 'offered' already to Cambon this afternoon and might still get the nod as IOTL with sending immediatly an according note by messenger to Cambon (as the latter reported that day to his brother having reached him somewhat shoertly after 22:00). At that monent the 'party' is joined by Churchill as IOTL.
3rd Just around the Corner at Downing No.11 Lloyd George, Harcourt, Samuel, McKenna and Runciman discuss financial matters about the stock market and currency surge at hand due to the war scare (with their decission of measure then decided upon recorded). Therefore between 22:00 and 23:00 some of the most senior members of the Cabinet are quite 'concentrated' at Downing Street. Lichnowsky having returned from his talk with Grey might inform his fellow diplomats of the situation to 'play' ASAP their 'contacts'. It shouldn't be forgotten that ther were some rather capable diplomats engaged in london at that time - Richard v. Kühlmann who's also said having ratehr good contacts to the press esp. the liberal.
- Carl v. Schubert
- Leopld v. Hoesch reported of having some 'good hand' reg. the royal familiy and there entourages
- last but not least the 'self-paying' attachee reg. economy and finance Albert von Goldtschmidt-Rothschild son of the biggest banker and richest man of the german realm
who was one of the few Jews ever ennoble. ... esp. by Kaiser Bill
(given his IMHO somewhat shaky reputation of antisemitism given the
entourage of Jews he was on friendly term with additionally to the named
likes like Albert Ballin, Walther Rathenau ...)
(as always I would recommend reading the german wiki entries with some translater due to their more elaborated content)
Kühlmann i.e. might go for the press, maybe convincing the one or other of a Sunday Special with the infos about the 'peace loving' Kaiser refraining from his generals attempts to push for war. Goldtschmidt-Rothschild i.e. might 'run' into the bunch of ministers at Downing 11 to discuss 'seroius' financial matters' regarding the actual political development. ... and if not still during the night they probably will 'swarm in the morning of 2nd August to meet all their contacts. However ... comes 2nd August ...
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Post by Max Sinister on Nov 9, 2024 22:02:10 GMT
Sebastian Haffner writes in his book about "the seven mortal sins of Germany in WW1" that for a while, the majority of the British cabinet was against entering the war, and the French knew that and were pretty desperate about it.
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Post by American hist on Nov 11, 2024 1:37:38 GMT
With the Germans leaving Belgium alone, then France would have violated legumes neutrality first ,but I don't see Britain going to war with France as they acted as allies prior. Also, I remember that the British parliament still had the possibility of not declaring war on Germany during the invasion of Little Belgium.
The Germans would be fighting a defensive war in the west while Germany would be waging a offensive war in the east
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Post by raharris1973 on Nov 11, 2024 3:27:45 GMT
However ... comes 2nd August ... By this day, 11:59 PM August 1st, has anyone in Southeast Europe or Eastern Europe fired artillery across a border or sent cavalry or infantry across a border or formally declared war on anybody, between any of Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Russia, and Germany? Will August 2n bring any new developments on that? |
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 11, 2024 5:34:42 GMT
With the Germans leaving Belgium alone, then France would have violated legumes neutrality first ,but I don't see Britain going to war with France as they acted as allies prior. Also, I remember that the British parliament still had the possibility of not declaring war on Germany during the invasion of Little Belgium. The Germans would be fighting a defensive war in the west while Germany would be waging a offensive war in the east ... well ... the parliament was NEVER asked about ... in OTL ... neiter reg. 1st nor 2nd WW ... all decided by the cabinet alone.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 11, 2024 5:39:58 GMT
However ... comes 2nd August ... By this day, 11:59 PM August 1st, has anyone in Southeast Europe or Eastern Europe fired artillery across a border or sent cavalry or infantry across a border or formally declared war on anybody, between any of Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Russia, and Germany? Will August 2n bring any new developments on that? At oint of time specified : - so far 'only' exchange of artillery fire across the Save and Danuvia
- disputate: some cossack/cavalry incursions on german territory in East Prussia as well as the province of Posznan (somewhat south of Thorn)
IMHO: no, at least not for the moment and I don't see much of a possibility it might stay at those 'minor border vioations' only
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 11, 2024 10:53:00 GMT
With the Germans leaving Belgium alone, then France would have violated legumes neutrality first ,but I don't see Britain going to war with France as they acted as allies prior. Also, I remember that the British parliament still had the possibility of not declaring war on Germany during the invasion of Little Belgium. The Germans would be fighting a defensive war in the west while Germany would be waging a offensive war in the east
Would they, at least in the short term. Their plan was for massive attacks in A-L and it was against their interests to invade Belgium as that would prompt both Belgium resistance and political condemnation. Britain is probably unlikely to go to war with France because of the divided opinion in the government on war and also they don't see France as the threat that Germany was. However there's going to be a lot of hostility to such a French move.
France might decide that its worth such costs once the A-L attacks have been bloody failures and Russia is getting overwhelmed in Poland but I can't see them doing it in the 1st couple of months. - Which might rule it out until 1915 as winter would be setting in.
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 11, 2024 11:12:20 GMT
However ... comes 2nd August ... By this day, 11:59 PM August 1st, has anyone in Southeast Europe or Eastern Europe fired artillery across a border or sent cavalry or infantry across a border or formally declared war on anybody, between any of Austria-Hungary, Serbia, Montenegro, Russia, and Germany? Will August 2n bring any new developments on that?
Well according to wiki for 1914. - Have trimmed out non-European events from the entries for 28th July -5th August. There are a lot of [citation needed] comments but that gives the basic timetable of events. Interesting that it doesn't mention any dow by France or Russia. I have also read that there was a brief German incursion into Belgium a day early when, on realising a deadline hadn't yet expired - or probably even been given - and the two nations were technically at peace the German forces rather embarrassed, withdrew, only to return for real the following day.
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 12, 2024 6:11:50 GMT
There are a lot of [citation needed] comments but that gives the basic timetable of events. Interesting that it doesn't mention any dow by France or Russia. I have also read that there was a brief German incursion into Belgium a day early when, on realising a deadline hadn't yet expired - or probably even been given - and the two nations were technically at peace the German forces rather embarrassed, withdrew, only to return for real the following day.
France WAS DoWed by Germany. so it didn'nt need to do so by itself. But ... in 1914 it did DoW Austria-Hungary on the 12th August (after some ... 'hinting' by its russian partner). It also DoWed the Ottoman Empire on 6th November and in 1915 Bulgaria.
Russia ... was DoWed by Germany and needed not in "response". Also Austria-Hungary DoWed Russia on 6th August - when A-H could actually start der mobilisation against Russian in earnest. So ... no needs there. But ofc it DoWed the OE on 2nd November when the ottoman triumvirate didn't come along with a ... 'proper' explanation of the bombardments of its harbours in the Black Sea.
Possibly what you refer to Belgium means the incursion into Luxembourg on 1st August evening (~19:00 CET) being recalled by the Kaiser (just shows how long messaging took these days ...) and was restarted on 2nd Augsut after the resumption of ordering of the Moltke deployment on 1st August night at ~ 23:30 CET).
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nomommsen
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Post by nomommsen on Nov 12, 2024 6:22:15 GMT
Would they, at least in the short term. Their plan was for massive attacks in A-L and it was against their interests to invade Belgium as that would prompt both Belgium resistance and political condemnation. Britain is probably unlikely to go to war with France because of the divided opinion in the government on war and also they don't see France as the threat that Germany was. However there's going to be a lot of hostility to such a French move.
France might decide that its worth such costs once the A-L attacks have been bloody failures and Russia is getting overwhelmed in Poland but I can't see them doing it in the 1st couple of months. - Which might rule it out until 1915 as winter would be setting in.
When Joffre took tghe helm in 1912 he was - despite "asking" for other - clearly told that a french incursion into Belgium (before a german one) is out of the question.
Despite this and the purely offensive thinking he was lead by he prepared thentwo variant possibility of his Plan XVII: - 4th Army behind 2nd and 3rd ... for a push into Lorrain
- 4th Army behind 3rd and 5th ... far a push into Belgium
On 2nd August, when he couldn't have known yet about the german ultimatum towards Belgium regarding passing its territory he already ordered the 4th Army to be positioned behind 3rd and 5th Army ...
However I well agree with you that a push into Belgium to circumvent Metz-Diedenhofen would REALLY start to look 'interesting' for Joffre after Lorrain.
... and Britains possible reaction to a french incursion into Belgium (perhaps still in 1914? ... some point in Septemvber or Oktober? ... after the attack into Lorraine has miserably failed?) is one of T H E B I G bone of comtemptiuon in every AH-community
... which IMHO might depend to quite some degree on what would have happend until then on its internal 'Irish Front' ...
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Nov 12, 2024 15:05:15 GMT
There are a lot of [citation needed] comments but that gives the basic timetable of events. Interesting that it doesn't mention any dow by France or Russia. I have also read that there was a brief German incursion into Belgium a day early when, on realising a deadline hadn't yet expired - or probably even been given - and the two nations were technically at peace the German forces rather embarrassed, withdrew, only to return for real the following day.
France WAS DoWed by Germany. so it didn'nt need to do so by itself. But ... in 1914 it did DoW Austria-Hungary on the 12th August (after some ... 'hinting' by its russian partner). It also DoWed the Ottoman Empire on 6th November and in 1915 Bulgaria.
Russia ... was DoWed by Germany and needed not in "response". Also Austria-Hungary DoWed Russia on 6th August - when A-H could actually start der mobilisation against Russian in earnest. So ... no needs there. But ofc it DoWed the OE on 2nd November when the ottoman triumvirate didn't come along with a ... 'proper' explanation of the bombardments of its harbours in the Black Sea.
Possibly what you refer to Belgium means the incursion into Luxembourg on 1st August evening (~19:00 CET) being recalled by the Kaiser (just shows how long messaging took these days ...) and was restarted on 2nd Augsut after the resumption of ordering of the Moltke deployment on 1st August night at ~ 23:30 CET).
Think your right there and it was my memory playing up.
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