Future of the Middle East

[pericles]

What will the Middle East look like in 20 years time? I think Kurdistan will be independent, but will Syria and Iraq still exist? What alternate nations or entities will form? Will Islamist extremism still be the big issue or will a new movement sweep the region? Any ideas?

[lordroel]

Apr 4, 2016 1:59:59 GMT pericles said:

What will the Middle East look like in 20 years time? I think Kurdistan will be independent, but will Syria and Iraq still exist? What alternate nations or entities will form? Will Islamist extremism still be the big issue or will a new movement sweep the region? Any ideas?

The problem with what is going on right now in the Middle East we even do not know how it will look like in about 2 years time lets say 20 years.

[stevep]

pericles

There might be an independent Kurdist state but I suspect it would be unlikely. Simply because even with Iraq and Syria in turmoil Turkey and Iran both have substantial incentives to prevent any such state for fear of its influence on their own minorities.

The big issue in the short term is how great a conflict there will be between the Shia/Iran and Sunni/Saudi 'blocs'. This could be potentially very explosive especially with most of Sunni states further afield less involved and with low oil prices weakening Saudi influence. [Although the latter is unlikely to last if a major shooting war occurred in the Gulf]. Coupled in with Russia support for the Shias and possibly a US and EU tied up with internal issues this could be a big source of both conflict and change in the region.

I suspect Islamic reactionism [which is a more accurate description than radicalism I believe] will be with us for quite a while but how its character might change and what areas it might affect. Even if a Sunni/Shia conflict in the ME diverts its resources you still have further elements in W Africa, Somalia and Pakistan/Afghanistan for instance and could see it emerging elsewhere. [While technically outside the ME mentioned in the OP they can and likely still will have impacts on the region].

Another uncertainty would be how Israel develops. It looks increasingly autocratic and sectarian with the fundamentalist Jewish groups steadily gaining more power but whether that could be reversed is unclear.

The other big issue is how widely WMD spread, both in terms of possession and possible use.

Steve

[lordroel]

I think that what is going on right now, the future of the Middle East is shifting to much to make a prediction, the prediction you make today about that region future can be totally different tomorrow.

[futurist]

Apr 4, 2016 1:59:59 GMT pericles said:

What will the Middle East look like in 20 years time? I think Kurdistan will be independent, but will Syria and Iraq still exist? What alternate nations or entities will form? Will Islamist extremism still be the big issue or will a new movement sweep the region? Any ideas?

For one, there would probably be an independent Palestinian state within 20 years.

Also, though, here is an important question in regards to this: Do the people who currently still live under ISIS rule want the pre-2014 Iraqi-Syrian border restored?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

[lordroel]

Jun 20, 2016 2:02:01 GMT futurist said:

Apr 4, 2016 1:59:59 GMT pericles said:

What will the Middle East look like in 20 years time? I think Kurdistan will be independent, but will Syria and Iraq still exist? What alternate nations or entities will form? Will Islamist extremism still be the big issue or will a new movement sweep the region? Any ideas?

For one, there would probably be an independent Palestinian state within 20 years.

Also, though, here is an important question in regards to this: Do the people who currently still live under ISIS rule want the pre-2014 Iraqi-Syrian border restored?

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

What ISIS, if this goes on ISIS vacuum will be filled by a new groups as it always happens.

[perkeo]

I am very pessimistic about any changes. The fronts are too hardened for a mayor positive breakthrough, and too many outside forces have an interest in keeping the conflict boiling.

[lordroel]

Maybe looking like this: Map: a “New Middle East”

[jasonsnow]

Apr 13, 2018 13:43:11 GMT lordroel said:

Maybe looking like this: Map: a “New Middle East”

Oil. Just one word.

How could you convince nations to give up oil-rich territories to create independent states, which could potentially ally with enemy nations and threaten their own way of life? WWIII. 

[raunchel]

There are lots of factors at play. First of all there of course is the energy situation, a decline in the importance of oil would have a tremendous impact.

Aside from that, there is the changing situation in Iran (it's not at all like American media like to portray it). There is am educated population of which large parts aren't that religious after all. This also is one of their main strengths vis a vis the Saudis, who are a bit weaker in that regard.

The one absolute certainty that I have about it all is that the region will remain one of the less peaceful ones.