stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 10, 2016 22:59:58 GMT
I think an Austria that split from the alliance with Germany would be eager to avoid a major war if they could as they would be more concerned to reconstruct their economy and society. However I could see it being offered tempting tit-bits by the entente if a war occurred as OTL, i.e. Silesia and possibly influence over Bavaria and Baden-Wittenberg. On the other hand there could be hard line pan-Germanists who urge Austria to support Germany, which however would be likely to upset the assorted Slavic nationalities along with possibly the Hungarians and those Germans who look toward a reformed Austrian federal state. As such I could see Austria being drawn into a conflict although I suspect it would have wanted to avoid it. I'm doubtful that Germany would be eager for war without Austrian support or Britain would have supported any aggressive Franco-Russia action. Steve So you are saying with out Austria, Germany will back away from ever going to war with the United Kingdom or the French Republic. Without Austria it would be extremely unlikely that Germany would risk a war with France and Russia. It might try if fairly desperate, with the historical plan to knock France out quickly but this is likely to a) fail and b) bring Britain into the conflict against Germany. Austria is important to tie down a lot of Russian forces on the eastern front, supply some materials [although those might be provided by trade with a neutral Austria] and provide a bridge to other possibly allies, most noticeably Turkey. Its possibly that if Austria broke with Germany after the Franco-Russia alliance is firmly established, by say FF coming to power in Vienna after FJ dies a few years earlier than OTL, that France and Russia would become more confident and aggressive themselves and pressurise Germany. Depending on other events, including German [un-]diplomacy, this could well see Britain staying neutral or even at some point seeking to aid Germany to prevent a single [Franco-Russia] bloc dominating the continent. This could well prompt Austria off the fence as well. As always the devil is in the details. Steve |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:06:39 GMT
Interesting. I guess Franz Ferdinand's assassination ruined chances of this. It may have been more stable. Based on what I have read (on Reddit), though, Franz Ferdinand himself didn't actually support this proposal.  |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:09:07 GMT
The United States of Greater Austria (German: Vereinigte Staaten von Groß-Österreich) was a proposal, conceived by a group of scholars surrounding Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, that never came to pass. This specific proposal was conceived by the lawyer and politician Aurel Popovici in 1906 and aimed at federalizing Austria-Hungary to help resolve widespread ethnic and nationalist tensions. Proposed map of the United States of Greater Austria, superimposed on the major ethnic groups of Austria-Hungary Proposed map of the United States of Greater Austria, by Popovici, 1906
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 19, 2016 2:10:48 GMT
That does not need to be the case, it could go good for a while before it turn into a mess. True, but a stable, democratic Austria-Hungary would be a boon to peace in Europe. I am unsure that this proposal would have been enough to keep Austria-Hungary stable indefinitely even if this proposal would have actually been fully implemented, though. |
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spanishspy
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Post by spanishspy on Jun 19, 2016 4:45:13 GMT
True, but a stable, democratic Austria-Hungary would be a boon to peace in Europe. I am unsure that this proposal would have been enough to keep Austria-Hungary stable indefinitely even if this proposal would have actually been fully implemented, though. I feel it would have at least delayed war, if only by assuaging nationalist concerns. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 11:25:33 GMT
The United States of Greater Austria (German: Vereinigte Staaten von Groß-Österreich) was a proposal, conceived by a group of scholars surrounding Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, that never came to pass. This specific proposal was conceived by the lawyer and politician Aurel Popovici in 1906 and aimed at federalizing Austria-Hungary to help resolve widespread ethnic and nationalist tensions. Proposed map of the United States of Greater Austria, superimposed on the major ethnic groups of Austria-HungaryProposed map of the United States of Greater Austria, by Popovici, 1906
The Romanians and Serbs yes, although there were relatively few of them, along with Italians by this time. However the Poles and Ukrainians would probably be loyal simply because the alternative at this time would be rule by the Russian empire, which most would consider a worse option. Similarly many of the southern Slavs who weren't Serbs, such as Croats, Bosnians, Slovenians etc would very likely being in an Austrian empire, especially a reformed federal one, than in a greater Serbia. It wouldn't solve all problems but its likely to strengthen the empire a lot and if it avoids a major war the state is likely to survive for a while yet. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 11:30:36 GMT
True, but a stable, democratic Austria-Hungary would be a boon to peace in Europe. I am unsure that this proposal would have been enough to keep Austria-Hungary stable indefinitely even if this proposal would have actually been fully implemented, though. It won't solve all problems but it would help immensely. Whether it could be implemented fully in terms of probable opposition by invested interests, especially the German and Magyar aristocracies is a serious issue. There were however also significant economic, historical and personal connections tying the state together, which helped it last as long as it did. Ultimately there is the problem in a period where national identities are very powerful of can the state survive? However Switzerland managed it, as so far, has Belgium and there are a number of other states which have multiple nationalities. As long as the grip of the current ruling elite is loosened it should have some chances to develop into a more successful nation. |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 19, 2016 11:33:29 GMT
I am unsure that this proposal would have been enough to keep Austria-Hungary stable indefinitely even if this proposal would have actually been fully implemented, though. I feel it would have at least delayed war, if only by assuaging nationalist concerns. Both by its impact inside the empire and even more the wider political situation of Europe. I can't see Germany making a bid for conquest as OTL without Austrian support or Britain supporting France and Russia if they took the aggressive stance so there is at least a decent chance Europe will dodge the bullet of a major coalition conflict that is likely to be as devastating as OTL. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 6:16:33 GMT
I feel it would have at least delayed war, if only by assuaging nationalist concerns. Both by its impact inside the empire and even more the wider political situation of Europe. I can't see Germany making a bid for conquest as OTL without Austrian support or Britain supporting France and Russia if they took the aggressive stance so there is at least a decent chance Europe will dodge the bullet of a major coalition conflict that is likely to be as devastating as OTL. What about if Britain will gradually switch over to Germany's side after 1916-1917 due to Russia's growing military power, though? |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 20, 2016 6:17:15 GMT
After all, wasn't Russia's military strength significantly overestimated even in 1914 in real life?
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 20, 2016 21:23:41 GMT
Both by its impact inside the empire and even more the wider political situation of Europe. I can't see Germany making a bid for conquest as OTL without Austrian support or Britain supporting France and Russia if they took the aggressive stance so there is at least a decent chance Europe will dodge the bullet of a major coalition conflict that is likely to be as devastating as OTL. What about if Britain will gradually switch over to Germany's side after 1916-1917 due to Russia's growing military power, though? That might have occurred, especially if Russia started looking more threatening and Germany became more diplomatic. An end to the naval challenge and acceptance that other powers interests have merit would have helped greatly. Also if a stronger Russia not only looked likely to upset the balance of power in Europe but seemed a greater threat in areas of Asia where they clashed with British interests. [I.e. China, the straits & Persia/Afghanistan]. I suspect it wouldn't really shift dramatically until say 1920 because there would be a large level of inertia in such circumstances. Unless possibly a Franco-Russian war with Germany looked like winning an overwhelming victory. However apart from anything else: a) The basic idea is that the Haspburg empire sees fairly dramatic reform. If so by about 1920 it would be likely to be a useful defensive ally for Germany against an aggressive Russia, which would balance things a lot. b) As WWI showed attacking against prepared defences is difficult and often costly and Russia's military strength was over-rated given the actual performance of the Russian army in the offensive and its social and political weaknesses. |
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futurist
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Post by futurist on Jun 23, 2016 0:29:32 GMT
What about if Britain will gradually switch over to Germany's side after 1916-1917 due to Russia's growing military power, though? 1. That might have occurred, especially if Russia started looking more threatening and Germany became more diplomatic. An end to the naval challenge and acceptance that other powers interests have merit would have helped greatly. Also if a stronger Russia not only looked likely to upset the balance of power in Europe but seemed a greater threat in areas of Asia where they clashed with British interests. [I.e. China, the straits & Persia/Afghanistan]. I suspect it wouldn't really shift dramatically until say 1920 because there would be a large level of inertia in such circumstances. Unless possibly a Franco-Russian war with Germany looked like winning an overwhelming victory. 2. However apart from anything else: a) The basic idea is that the Haspburg empire sees fairly dramatic reform. If so by about 1920 it would be likely to be a useful defensive ally for Germany against an aggressive Russia, which would balance things a lot. b) As WWI showed attacking against prepared defences is difficult and often costly and Russia's military strength was over-rated given the actual performance of the Russian army in the offensive and its social and political weaknesses. 1. Completely agreed. However, 1920 is only 6 years after from 1914, so ... 2. Couldn't tanks and air power reduce the value of defensive warfare, though? |
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stevep
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Post by stevep on Jun 23, 2016 15:34:53 GMT
1. That might have occurred, especially if Russia started looking more threatening and Germany became more diplomatic. An end to the naval challenge and acceptance that other powers interests have merit would have helped greatly. Also if a stronger Russia not only looked likely to upset the balance of power in Europe but seemed a greater threat in areas of Asia where they clashed with British interests. [I.e. China, the straits & Persia/Afghanistan]. I suspect it wouldn't really shift dramatically until say 1920 because there would be a large level of inertia in such circumstances. Unless possibly a Franco-Russian war with Germany looked like winning an overwhelming victory. 2. However apart from anything else: a) The basic idea is that the Haspburg empire sees fairly dramatic reform. If so by about 1920 it would be likely to be a useful defensive ally for Germany against an aggressive Russia, which would balance things a lot. b) As WWI showed attacking against prepared defences is difficult and often costly and Russia's military strength was over-rated given the actual performance of the Russian army in the offensive and its social and political weaknesses. 1. Completely agreed. However, 1920 is only 6 years after from 1914, so ... 2. Couldn't tanks and air power reduce the value of defensive warfare, though? 1) True but the Hapsburg empire stood up reasonably well to pressure OTL and with say 5-6 years of reform and standing on the defensive with a more motivated army it could cause a 1920 Imperial Russian army some problems at least. Both powers are likely to still be of fairly poor quality but the Austrians are likely to have an edge. 2) True but without WWI and the experience of the problems of breaking through defensive lines how rapidly would either armour or air power be developed? Especially if we're mainly talking about a not particularly reformed imperial Russia that is likely to reply on large numbers to counter its poor quality [in terms of poorly trained, equipped and led masses are a lack recognition of the need for well trained and technically educated officers. To clarify I suspect that Britain might well get drawn into such a conflict, especially if it looked like a Franco-Russian bloc was the aggressor, was winning and seemed intent on fairly draconican terms that would upset the balance of power. However I think it would probably stay out of the early stages because of the lingering distrust of imperial Germany, plus possibly being distracted by internal matters. [I.e. Ireland, social and education reform, tariff policy etc.] |
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cornelis
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Post by cornelis on Jul 22, 2016 14:33:31 GMT
I am afraid the Hungarians would never accept Transylvania being cut from Hungary.
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lordroel
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Post by lordroel on Jul 22, 2016 14:35:47 GMT
I am afraid the Hungarians would never accept Transylvania being cut from Hungary. You mean that is is a separate state, yes that could be a point as the Hungary part of the United States of Greater Austria will be smaller than it was when it was just part of the empire. |
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