Cold War Between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers?

[futurist]

A Cold War Between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after a Central Powers WWI Victory?

In your honest opinion, do you think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I?



Any thoughts on this?



As for me, I would say No, I don't think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers in this scenario. Why? Because Imperial Germany (the most powerful country among the Central Powers) was certainly much more democratic and open than totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union were in real life. In turn, this, combined with the lesser ideological differences between autocratic Imperial Germany and the Anglo-Americans (in comparison to the ideological differences between the totalitarian Soviet Union or even the totalitarian Nazi Germany and the Anglo-Americans in real life), would have probably ensured that tensions between the Central Powers (especially Imperial Germany) and the Anglo-Americans wouldn't have reached Cold War-style levels after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I.

[lordroel]

Jun 19, 2016 2:54:43 GMT futurist said:

A Cold War Between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after a Central Powers WWI Victory?

In your honest opinion, do you think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I?

Any thoughts on this?

As for me, I would say No, I don't think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers in this scenario. Why? Because Imperial Germany (the most powerful country among the Central Powers) was certainly much more democratic and open than totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union were in real life. In turn, this, combined with the lesser ideological differences between autocratic Imperial Germany and the Anglo-Americans (in comparison to the ideological differences between the totalitarian Soviet Union or even the totalitarian Nazi Germany and the Anglo-Americans in real life), would have probably ensured that tensions between the Central Powers (especially Imperial Germany) and the Anglo-Americans wouldn't have reached Cold War-style levels after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I.

Why would you think the United Kingdom and the United States join forces, the one country isolationist and another has lost a war, i would think they have to different views to team up in order to counter, the Central Powers.

[stevep]

I think a lot would depend on the circumstances. For instance how long the war has lasted, how bitter and costly the fighting has been. As Lordroel mentions, unless you have a war long enough for America to be drawn in or a victorious German arrogant and clumsy enough to force America out of its isolationism its not likely to become involved in affairs in Europe. Britain will be deeply hostile to a German military and economic domination of Europe due to the threat it poses to Britain's independence, even without any lasting ill-feeling from the war. [Unless your assuming Britain stays neutral in this WWI, hence the CP victory?] However it would depend on how strong both powers were as to how effective this opposition would be and how long it could last.

[lordroel]

Jun 19, 2016 12:25:37 GMT stevep said:

I think a lot would depend on the circumstances. For instance how long the war has lasted, how bitter and costly the fighting has been. As Lordroel mentions, unless you have a war long enough for America to be drawn in or a victorious German arrogant and clumsy enough to force America out of its isolationism its not likely to become involved in affairs in Europe. Britain will be deeply hostile to a German military and economic domination of Europe due to the threat it poses to Britain's independence, even without any lasting ill-feeling from the war. [Unless your assuming Britain stays neutral in this WWI, hence the CP victory?] However it would depend on how strong both powers were as to how effective this opposition would be and how long it could last.

The only thing i can think of that the United States will be tough in is enforcing the Monroe Doctrine, as long as Empire of Germany does not go for any adventure in America, than the United States has no problem with then.

[stevep]

Which could prompt a clash if Germany seeks to take over French colonies in the Americas.

[lordroel]

Jun 19, 2016 15:15:03 GMT stevep said:

Which could prompt a clash if Germany seeks to take over French colonies in the Americas.

The German Empire can claim that hat the Monroe Doctrine doesn't apply to transfer of possession between European powers as the Monroe Doctrine is an instrument put in place to prevent European powers from gaining new territories in the Western Hemisphere, but doesn't apply in the transfer of colony’s between European powers.

[stevep]

Jun 19, 2016 17:04:13 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 19, 2016 15:15:03 GMT stevep said:

Which could prompt a clash if Germany seeks to take over French colonies in the Americas.

The German Empire can claim that hat the Monroe Doctrine doesn't apply to transfer of possession between European powers as the Monroe Doctrine is an instrument put in place to prevent European powers from gaining new territories in the Western Hemisphere, but doesn't apply in the transfer of colony’s between European powers.

  It could claim that but whether the US, either its government or public opinion, would take a different interpretation is a different matter.

 

[futurist]

Jun 19, 2016 8:30:23 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 19, 2016 2:54:43 GMT futurist said:

A Cold War Between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after a Central Powers WWI Victory?

In your honest opinion, do you think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I?

Any thoughts on this?

As for me, I would say No, I don't think that there would have been good odds of a Cold War occurring between the Anglo-Americans and the Central Powers in this scenario. Why? Because Imperial Germany (the most powerful country among the Central Powers) was certainly much more democratic and open than totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union were in real life. In turn, this, combined with the lesser ideological differences between autocratic Imperial Germany and the Anglo-Americans (in comparison to the ideological differences between the totalitarian Soviet Union or even the totalitarian Nazi Germany and the Anglo-Americans in real life), would have probably ensured that tensions between the Central Powers (especially Imperial Germany) and the Anglo-Americans wouldn't have reached Cold War-style levels after World War I in the event of a Central Powers victory in World War I.

Why would you think the United Kingdom and the United States join forces, the one country isolationist and another has lost a war, i would think they have to different views to team up in order to counter, the Central Powers.

In short: Because Imperial Germany apparently wanted to (sooner or later) challenge the U.S.'s hegemony in the Western Hemisphere. Indeed, take a look at this Wikipedia article:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_German_plans_for_the_invasion_of_the_United_States

[futurist]

Jun 19, 2016 12:25:37 GMT stevep said:

or a victorious German arrogant and clumsy enough to force America out of its isolationism

Frankly, this might not only be possible, but also be likely:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_German_plans_for_the_invasion_of_the_United_States

[futurist]

Jun 19, 2016 21:01:05 GMT stevep said:

Jun 19, 2016 17:04:13 GMT lordroel said:

The German Empire can claim that hat the Monroe Doctrine doesn't apply to transfer of possession between European powers as the Monroe Doctrine is an instrument put in place to prevent European powers from gaining new territories in the Western Hemisphere, but doesn't apply in the transfer of colony’s between European powers.

  It could claim that but whether the US, either its government or public opinion, would take a different interpretation is a different matter.

Completely agreed.

[deltaforce]

Jun 20, 2016 1:53:36 GMT futurist said:

Jun 19, 2016 12:25:37 GMT stevep said:

or a victorious German arrogant and clumsy enough to force America out of its isolationism

Frankly, this might not only be possible, but also be likely:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_German_plans_for_the_invasion_of_the_United_States

That doesn't mean they were seriously considered. Every country has plans for various contingencies to prevent being caught without a plan. Around the same time period the United States had war plans for fighting the British Empire (War Plan Red) and the French Empire (War Plan Gold).

[deltaforce]

A cold war seems unlikely because the United States could fairly easily win an arms race against Europe and Japan. It not only had the capability to build to a two power standard, but it actually passed the Naval Act of 1916 to do so. Note that the Act was passed before the United States entered World War I. The United States didn't really want to complete the plan and the longer conflict that would be required for World War I to end in a draw would have badly damaged the European economy. If the British and Germans don't agree to sit down and sign a naval arms treaty the United States can simply finish the 1916 plan and win the arms race almost by default. The United States wouldn't really want to spend much on its navy though, so it would be strange for the Europeans to decide not to end an arms race they can't really compete in anyways.

[stevep]

Mar 13, 2017 23:57:17 GMT deltaforce said:

A cold war seems unlikely because the United States could fairly easily win an arms race against Europe and Japan. It not only had the capability to build to a two power standard, but it actually passed the Naval Act of 1916 to do so. Note that the Act was passed before the United States entered World War I. The United States didn't really want to complete the plan and the longer conflict that would be required for World War I to end in a draw would have badly damaged the European economy. If the British and Germans don't agree to sit down and sign a naval arms treaty the United States can simply finish the 1916 plan and win the arms race almost by default. The United States wouldn't really want to spend much on its navy though, so it would be strange for the Europeans to decide not to end an arms race they can't really compete in anyways.

  Actually while it has a sizeable edge over any other power industrially a really powered up Germany, if it didn't have too many problems holding its empire and with internal pressure for reform could really challenge it.  Also a prolonged arms race would be politically difficult for the US at this stage.

  In ~1916 they did plan a huge naval programme although this was interupted by their involvement in WWI and then there was inadequate political will to fund it afterwards, although in those circumstances things might be different.  If their in friendly terms with Britain it wouldn't be that worthwhile anyway as the RN will seek to keep the Germans at bay in naval terms.  What it would do, as OTL, would make the Japanese feel very threatened.  Given that they would be the main allies Britain still has standing this could be awkward for Britain and I suspect they might end up staying with Japan rather than a still isolationist US.

  Under those circumstances there wouldn't be a naval treaty as Britain and Germany wouldn't be accepting any terms agreeable to the other.  Britain would almost certainly resume capital ship construction itself, especially since Germany is likely to do so, and you would see the G3s and possibly the N3's entering service.  Along with probably a larger carrier force earlier.  [Especially if the butterflies mean that the RAF isn't formed].

  Please note a German victory might not mean a longer WWI.  In fact its probably more likely to be a shorter one as Germany is running out of time once its 1914 offensive fails.  There are chances of a later success but they fairly steadily decline as the war wears on.