Putin Sends in Russia's Army to Capture All of "Novorossiya"

[futurist]

What if Russian President (a.k.a. dictator) Vladimir Putin would have outright sent in Russia's Army to capture all of "Novorossiya" in early 2014?

What exactly would the West's response to this have been? After all, in this scenario, Putin would have sent most of the Russian Army into Ukraine instead of merely relying on "pro-Russian separatists" to militarily achieve his goals in Ukraine.

Indeed, any thoughts on this?

[spanishspy]

It would be bad. I'm not sure NATO would intervene, but I can definitely see Spanish Civil War-style international brigades going there en masse to support Ukraine. I can also see a hell of a lot of Western military advisors.

On a tangential note, I'm hesitant to describe Putin as a dictator - first among oligarchs, certainly, but not necessarily dictator.

[futurist]

Jul 2, 2016 23:28:18 GMT spanishspy said:

1. It would be bad. I'm not sure NATO would intervene,


2. but I can definitely see Spanish Civil War-style international brigades going there en masse to support Ukraine. I can also see a hell of a lot of Western military advisors.

3. On a tangential note, I'm hesitant to describe Putin as a dictator - first among oligarchs, certainly, but not necessarily dictator.

1. I would think that NATO troops would help Ukraine keep control of the Odesa Oblast, no? After all, I seriously doubt that NATO would actually be willing to allow Russia to completely cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea as well as for Russian troops to be stationed on the (official) Ukraine-Romania border.

2. Completely agreed with all of this. Also, though, the West will certainly give whatever weapons that Ukraine wants to Ukraine in this scenario.

In addition to this, though, Russia is certainly going to get kicked out of the SWIFT global banking system as well as have much more additional sanctions imposed on it in comparison to real life. In turn, this might result in Russia's economy going into complete and utter free-fall in late 2014 and beyond, with Russia's gold reserves and whatnot becoming completely spent and wiped out. In turn, could this result in a revolution in Russia proper and/or in Putin's ousting by his inner circle?

Indeed, any thoughts on all of this?

3. Eh ... it depends, I suppose. After all, doesn't Putin suppress most, if not almost all, non-crazy opposition to him?

[spanishspy]

Jul 3, 2016 1:53:42 GMT futurist said:

Jul 2, 2016 23:28:18 GMT spanishspy said:

1. It would be bad. I'm not sure NATO would intervene,


2. but I can definitely see Spanish Civil War-style international brigades going there en masse to support Ukraine. I can also see a hell of a lot of Western military advisors.

3. On a tangential note, I'm hesitant to describe Putin as a dictator - first among oligarchs, certainly, but not necessarily dictator.

1. I would think that NATO troops would help Ukraine keep control of the Odesa Oblast, no? After all, I seriously doubt that NATO would actually be willing to allow Russia to completely cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea as well as for Russian troops to be stationed on the (official) Ukraine-Romania border.

2. Completely agreed with all of this. Also, though, the West will certainly give whatever weapons that Ukraine wants to Ukraine in this scenario.

In addition to this, though, Russia is certainly going to get kicked out of the SWIFT global banking system as well as have much more additional sanctions imposed on it in comparison to real life. In turn, this might result in Russia's economy going into complete and utter free-fall in late 2014 and beyond, with Russia's gold reserves and whatnot becoming completely spent and wiped out. In turn, could this result in a revolution in Russia proper and/or in Putin's ousting by his inner circle?

Indeed, any thoughts on all of this?

3. Eh ... it depends, I suppose. After all, doesn't Putin suppress most, if not almost all, non-crazy opposition to him?

In regards to Odessa, any direct NATO involvement means all out war. Russia would attack the Baltics and perhaps invade the Kurils. This would be a general European war without a doubt.

The West would definitely be supplying Ukraine with arms.

Enough military defeats could lead to an ouster of Putin and an Arab Spring-style uprising in Russia, as the economy tanks and the military continues to lose ground. Postwar, if it's bad enough, we could see a Post WWII West Germany-style reconstruction, with its very own Marshall Plan.

As you mention, Putin has an inner circle that could hypothetically oust him. It's a small bunch, but he doesn't have the power of Stalin.

[stevep]

Agree with one small quibble. It might possibly be Japan invading the Kurils, but not Russia as Russia already controls all of them.

[futurist]

Jul 4, 2016 16:30:19 GMT stevep said:

Agree with one small quibble. It might possibly be Japan invading the Kurils, but not Russia as Russia already controls all of them.

Why the heck would Japan actually want to pick a fight with a country which has nuclear weapons, though? After all, Russia is fighting Ukraine and NATO--rather than Japan--in this scenario.

[lordroel]

Jul 5, 2016 3:40:09 GMT futurist said:

Jul 4, 2016 16:30:19 GMT stevep said:

Agree with one small quibble. It might possibly be Japan invading the Kurils, but not Russia as Russia already controls all of them.

Why the heck would Japan actually want to pick a fight with a country which has nuclear weapons, though? After all, Russia is fighting Ukraine and NATO--rather than Japan--in this scenario.

Japan if they want to could also be a nuclear power so saying that they fighting one is not a issuse here, Japan also knows that they have the backing of the United states if Russia might use nuclear weapons on Japan.

[spanishspy]

Jul 5, 2016 3:40:09 GMT futurist said:

Jul 4, 2016 16:30:19 GMT stevep said:

Agree with one small quibble. It might possibly be Japan invading the Kurils, but not Russia as Russia already controls all of them.

Why the heck would Japan actually want to pick a fight with a country which has nuclear weapons, though? After all, Russia is fighting Ukraine and NATO--rather than Japan--in this scenario.

Thinking about it, I doubt Japan would get involved. That could draw in China, and they don't want to fight China. This war would likely be confined to Europe.

[stevep]

I don't know what the stance China would have in such a war. Its happy to encourage some of Putin's more disruptive actions as it weakens Russia and distracts the west but I doubt it would want to get into something as hairy as a full scale war with the western powers. Also if Japan just sought to regain the Kurils and possibly Sakhalin while they might make diplomatic capital out of it I doubt they would bother too much.

Japan [and others] might be more concerned about whether a certain far less rational neighbour might do something very stupid while everybody is distracted.

[lordroel]

Jul 5, 2016 16:16:46 GMT stevep said:

I don't know what the stance China would have in such a war. Its happy to encourage some of Putin's more disruptive actions as it weakens Russia and distracts the west but I doubt it would want to get into something as hairy as a full scale war with the western powers. Also if Japan just sought to regain the Kurils and possibly Sakhalin while they might make diplomatic capital out of it I doubt they would bother too much.

Japan [and others] might be more concerned about whether a certain far less rational neighbour might do something very stupid while everybody is distracted.

You mean North Korea, it will do the usual and threading that it will start a war but i do not think they are actually stupid enough to start a war for real.

[stevep]

Jul 5, 2016 16:20:43 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2016 16:16:46 GMT stevep said:

I don't know what the stance China would have in such a war. Its happy to encourage some of Putin's more disruptive actions as it weakens Russia and distracts the west but I doubt it would want to get into something as hairy as a full scale war with the western powers. Also if Japan just sought to regain the Kurils and possibly Sakhalin while they might make diplomatic capital out of it I doubt they would bother too much.

Japan [and others] might be more concerned about whether a certain far less rational neighbour might do something very stupid while everybody is distracted.

You mean North Korea, it will do the usual and threading that it will start a war but i do not think they are actually stupid enough to start a war for real.

  I hope they aren't stupid enough but given how warped a view of the world the regime has I wouldn't be that confident.

[lordroel]

Jul 5, 2016 16:28:57 GMT stevep said:

Jul 5, 2016 16:20:43 GMT lordroel said:

You mean North Korea, it will do the usual and threading that it will start a war but i do not think they are actually stupid enough to start a war for real.

  I hope they aren't stupid enough but given how warped a view of the world the regime has I wouldn't be that confident.

Well its the only country who can make a failed atom bomb test into a successful hydro bomb test.

[spanishspy]

Jul 5, 2016 16:31:08 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2016 16:28:57 GMT stevep said:

  I hope they aren't stupid enough but given how warped a view of the world the regime has I wouldn't be that confident.

Well its the only country who can make a failed atom bomb test into a successful hydro bomb test.

This is true, although my impression is that Beijing keeps Pyongyang on a rather tight leash. I don't know if this was the case in the nineties.

[futurist]

Jul 5, 2016 3:50:35 GMT lordroel said:

Jul 5, 2016 3:40:09 GMT futurist said:

Why the heck would Japan actually want to pick a fight with a country which has nuclear weapons, though? After all, Russia is fighting Ukraine and NATO--rather than Japan--in this scenario.

Japan if they want to could also be a nuclear power so saying that they fighting one is not a issuse here, Japan also knows that they have the backing of the United states if Russia might use nuclear weapons on Japan.

Can't Russia also defeat Japan in a conventional war, though?

[futurist]

Jul 3, 2016 19:30:57 GMT spanishspy said:

Jul 3, 2016 1:53:42 GMT futurist said:

1. I would think that NATO troops would help Ukraine keep control of the Odesa Oblast, no? After all, I seriously doubt that NATO would actually be willing to allow Russia to completely cut off Ukraine's access to the Black Sea as well as for Russian troops to be stationed on the (official) Ukraine-Romania border.

2. Completely agreed with all of this. Also, though, the West will certainly give whatever weapons that Ukraine wants to Ukraine in this scenario.

In addition to this, though, Russia is certainly going to get kicked out of the SWIFT global banking system as well as have much more additional sanctions imposed on it in comparison to real life. In turn, this might result in Russia's economy going into complete and utter free-fall in late 2014 and beyond, with Russia's gold reserves and whatnot becoming completely spent and wiped out. In turn, could this result in a revolution in Russia proper and/or in Putin's ousting by his inner circle?

Indeed, any thoughts on all of this?

3. Eh ... it depends, I suppose. After all, doesn't Putin suppress most, if not almost all, non-crazy opposition to him?

1. In regards to Odessa, any direct NATO involvement means all out war. Russia would attack the Baltics and perhaps invade the Kurils. This would be a general European war without a doubt.

2. The West would definitely be supplying Ukraine with arms.

3. Enough military defeats could lead to an ouster of Putin and an Arab Spring-style uprising in Russia, as the economy tanks and the military continues to lose ground. Postwar, if it's bad enough, we could see a Post WWII West Germany-style reconstruction, with its very own Marshall Plan.

4. As you mention, Putin has an inner circle that could hypothetically oust him. It's a small bunch, but he doesn't have the power of Stalin.

1. Eh ... I'm not so sure about that. After all, I would think that Russia knows that a total war with NATO means either military defeat (if no nukes are used) or MAD (if nukes are used).

Also, I seriously doubt that Japan will invade the Kuril Islands in this scenario.

2. Yes--with both arms and military advisers.

3. Completely agreed.

4. Completely agreed.

Also, though, here is an interesting question--after several years of Western military training and equipping, could Ukraine's military actually inflict some military defeats on Russia?

Also, one more question--would a large-scale anti-Russian insurgency develop in the parts of Ukraine that Russia will occupy in this scenario?