Under the Iron Cross: What if Germany ruled the Philippines

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2016 16:50:47 GMT spanishspy said:

Aug 3, 2016 16:47:23 GMT lordroel said:

But it will be a major base for them, they have almost 15 years to work on expanding it.

Definitely. This would help them enforce their claims in China.

With a large naval force they can do a lot of gun boat diplomacy.

[spanishspy]

Aug 3, 2016 16:52:17 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2016 16:50:47 GMT spanishspy said:

Definitely. This would help them enforce their claims in China.

With a large naval force they can do a lot of gun boat diplomacy.

That they can.

[stevep]

Guys

The problem with this is that Tirpitz's entire plan was to concentrate the vast majority of German strength in the N Sea, which negated large forces being based overseas. The idea was that Britain, because of its world-wide commitments couldn't concentrate to a similar degree. I think even the Goeben, the only large German ship outside the so called High Seas Fleet, was in the Med as a diplomatic show of strength.

Your likely to see more crusiers deployed there but probably not battlecruisers and almost certainly not battleships. Apart from Tirpitz's aims ships that large need a lot more infrastructure to operate them so you would need a hell of a lot more spending in the Philippines simply to operate such ships there.

The other factor is that if Germany is presuming a war with Britain then anything outside Europe is vulnerable to loss or at least isolation. This would be further increased if/when the Anglo-Japanese alliance comes into existence. It would be impossible to mainatain a Pacific fleet strong enough to face the Japanese while trying anything against Britain while a German presence in the Philippines would be a threat to Japan's own supply lines.

As such while I can see a larger German Pacific squadron, especially if there was continued Filipino resistance, I doubt it would include anything larger than the OTL armoured cruisers. Anything larger is not only very expensive to base there but almost certain to be lost.

The other question would be if such a squadron operated freely come WWI, as OTL, ending up being sunk off the Falklands or the greater prestige and/or economic importance of the Philippines means they are tasked with defending the colony? Which could be very good for the allies as they would put up resistance but be stomped by the Japanese fleet rather than large forces being tied up hunting down raiders as OTL.

[lordroel]

Aug 3, 2016 19:28:41 GMT stevep said:

Guys

The problem with this is that Tirpitz's entire plan was to concentrate the vast majority of German strength in the N Sea, which negated large forces being based overseas. The idea was that Britain, because of its world-wide commitments couldn't concentrate to a similar degree. I think even the Goeben, the only large German ship outside the so called High Seas Fleet, was in the Med as a diplomatic show of strength.

Your likely to see more crusiers deployed there but probably not battlecruisers and almost certainly not battleships. Apart from Tirpitz's aims ships that large need a lot more infrastructure to operate them so you would need a hell of a lot more spending in the Philippines simply to operate such ships there.

The other factor is that if Germany is presuming a war with Britain then anything outside Europe is vulnerable to loss or at least isolation. This would be further increased if/when the Anglo-Japanese alliance comes into existence. It would be impossible to mainatain a Pacific fleet strong enough to face the Japanese while trying anything against Britain while a German presence in the Philippines would be a threat to Japan's own supply lines.

As such while I can see a larger German Pacific squadron, especially if there was continued Filipino resistance, I doubt it would include anything larger than the OTL armoured cruisers. Anything larger is not only very expensive to base there but almost certain to be lost.

The other question would be if such a squadron operated freely come WWI, as OTL, ending up being sunk off the Falklands or the greater prestige and/or economic importance of the Philippines means they are tasked with defending the colony? Which could be very good for the allies as they would put up resistance but be stomped by the Japanese fleet rather than large forces being tied up hunting down raiders as OTL.

But having the Philippines change everything, the Philippines might become for a short period the kaiser pet project, his jewel in his colonial empire, so the kaiser might invest heavy in protecting it.

[stevep]

Jan 7, 2017 22:21:07 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 3, 2016 19:28:41 GMT stevep said:

Guys

The problem with this is that Tirpitz's entire plan was to concentrate the vast majority of German strength in the N Sea, which negated large forces being based overseas. The idea was that Britain, because of its world-wide commitments couldn't concentrate to a similar degree. I think even the Goeben, the only large German ship outside the so called High Seas Fleet, was in the Med as a diplomatic show of strength.

Your likely to see more crusiers deployed there but probably not battlecruisers and almost certainly not battleships. Apart from Tirpitz's aims ships that large need a lot more infrastructure to operate them so you would need a hell of a lot more spending in the Philippines simply to operate such ships there.

The other factor is that if Germany is presuming a war with Britain then anything outside Europe is vulnerable to loss or at least isolation. This would be further increased if/when the Anglo-Japanese alliance comes into existence. It would be impossible to mainatain a Pacific fleet strong enough to face the Japanese while trying anything against Britain while a German presence in the Philippines would be a threat to Japan's own supply lines.

As such while I can see a larger German Pacific squadron, especially if there was continued Filipino resistance, I doubt it would include anything larger than the OTL armoured cruisers. Anything larger is not only very expensive to base there but almost certain to be lost.

The other question would be if such a squadron operated freely come WWI, as OTL, ending up being sunk off the Falklands or the greater prestige and/or economic importance of the Philippines means they are tasked with defending the colony? Which could be very good for the allies as they would put up resistance but be stomped by the Japanese fleet rather than large forces being tied up hunting down raiders as OTL.

But having the Philippines change everything, the Philippines might become for a short period the kaiser pet project, his jewel in his colonial empire, so the kaiser might invest heavy in protecting it.

  If you mean basing a battle-fleet, or even a single squadron of battleships in Manlia then he would have to get rid of Tirpitz and that would really change history.  Also it would further alienate both Japan and Russia as each, but especially the former, would see it as a threat to their interests in the region.

[lordroel]

Jan 9, 2017 22:52:01 GMT stevep said:

Jan 7, 2017 22:21:07 GMT lordroel said:

But having the Philippines change everything, the Philippines might become for a short period the kaiser pet project, his jewel in his colonial empire, so the kaiser might invest heavy in protecting it.

  If you mean basing a battle-fleet, or even a single squadron of battleships in Manlia then he would have to get rid of Tirpitz and that would really change history.  Also it would further alienate both Japan and Russia as each, but especially the former, would see it as a threat to their interests in the region.

I think having the Philippines might already be considered having changed history.

[jvonaxel]

Considering that the ultimatum to Spain only referred to Cuba and not the Philipines. The German Empire could have quickly bought the Philippines from Spain and then use the forces present to hoist the German flag above Manilla. Then inform Dewey to take his little toy boats elsewhere as he was now in sovereign German waters, and there are no Spanish forces (Spanish forces would have been interned by the Germans, in camps that would look a lot like the Spaniards own barracks ) or possessions here for him to attack.



Dewey had no authority to start a war against Germany nor did he have the forces on hand to defeat the Germans. So he would have had no choice but to withdraw.



This does mean that Cuba would almost certainly end up as US territory/state.



So yes there would be some hard feelings between the US and Germany, but it is not like there is skin in the game. Meaning nothing that can't be fixed through some diplomatic effort.



So it is now late 89:

• Spain is richer by some 60m dollars, but has lost its caribbean and pacific possessions
• USA has taken Cuba, Porto Rico, and Guam. I doubt that under these conditions they would relinquish Cuba in 92
• Germany is poorer by 60m dollars, but gained the Philippines and the islands around German New Guinea. Also they would have pulled of a major coupe and scored massively on the diplomatic scene.  

So instead of spending the 100m gold mark they pissed away on the Kiautschou Bay concession, this money goes to the Philippines on more useful bases and development. They might even sell the concession to the US, for a friendly price after a couple of years as a goodwill gesture. And in the meantime, if they are smart, they will make the concession an international port gaining quite some points in the US.

Probable line of development for the Philippines





    1. Naval forces to the Philippines

        a. Development of the Subic Bay naval base, it is just too good not to             Subic Bay would be the natural home for the German Pacific fleet.

        b. Naval defence of the Philippines would become high priority for the             Germans. Much like the priority India for GB and DEI for the Dutch             had in OTL.

        c. Remember just across the South China Sea is French Indochina and             British Singapore. Necessitating strong forces to defend the colony, by             1914 this would probably include some pre-Dreds.

    2. Assignment of some of Germany's best colonial officers as this would         now be their crown colony.

    3. Willingness to invest massive sums of money and manpower to develop         their colony.

    4. Building up of local industry and agriculture. With large investments in         schooling, healthcare, and infrastructure.

    5. In Africa the Germans OTL did:

        a. Make use of the local power structures.

        b. Make excellent use of their well-paid, trained, and equipped Askaris.

        c. Went for expansion through diplomacy and trade, rather than brute             force.

        d. Besides the Herero fiasco still some 6 years in the future most of their             colonial rule was quite benign. Especially in comparison with the other             European powers. And God have mercy on your soul if you came             under Belgian rule.

        And it would make sense that they would do the same in the Philippines.

[lordroel]

Feb 25, 2017 13:20:35 GMT jvonaxel said:

Considering that the ultimatum to Spain only referred to Cuba and not the Philipines. The German Empire could have quickly bought the Philippines from Spain and then use the forces present to hoist the German flag above Manilla. Then inform Dewey to take his little toy boats elsewhere as he was now in sovereign German waters, and there are no Spanish forces (Spanish forces would have been interned by the Germans, in camps that would look a lot like the Spaniards own barracks ) or possessions here for him to attack.



Dewey had no authority to start a war against Germany nor did he have the forces on hand to defeat the Germans. So he would have had no choice but to withdraw.



This does mean that Cuba would almost certainly end up as US territory/state.



So yes there would be some hard feelings between the US and Germany, but it is not like there is skin in the game. Meaning nothing that can't be fixed through some diplomatic effort.



So it is now late 89:

• Spain is richer by some 60m dollars, but has lost its caribbean and pacific possessions
• USA has taken Cuba, Porto Rico, and Guam. I doubt that under these conditions they would relinquish Cuba in 92
• Germany is poorer by 60m dollars, but gained the Philippines and the islands around German New Guinea. Also they would have pulled of a major coupe and scored massively on the diplomatic scene.  

So instead of spending the 100m gold mark they pissed away on the Kiautschou Bay concession, this money goes to the Philippines on more useful bases and development. They might even sell the concession to the US, for a friendly price after a couple of years as a goodwill gesture. And in the meantime, if they are smart, they will make the concession an international port gaining quite some points in the US.

Probable line of development for the Philippines





    1. Naval forces to the Philippines

        a. Development of the Subic Bay naval base, it is just too good not to             Subic Bay would be the natural home for the German Pacific fleet.

        b. Naval defence of the Philippines would become high priority for the             Germans. Much like the priority India for GB and DEI for the Dutch             had in OTL.

        c. Remember just across the South China Sea is French Indochina and             British Singapore. Necessitating strong forces to defend the colony, by             1914 this would probably include some pre-Dreds.

    2. Assignment of some of Germany's best colonial officers as this would         now be their crown colony.

    3. Willingness to invest massive sums of money and manpower to develop         their colony.

    4. Building up of local industry and agriculture. With large investments in         schooling, healthcare, and infrastructure.

    5. In Africa the Germans OTL did:

        a. Make use of the local power structures.

        b. Make excellent use of their well-paid, trained, and equipped Askaris.

        c. Went for expansion through diplomacy and trade, rather than brute             force.

        d. Besides the Herero fiasco still some 6 years in the future most of their             colonial rule was quite benign. Especially in comparison with the other             European powers. And God have mercy on your soul if you came             under Belgian rule.

        And it would make sense that they would do the same in the Philippines.

Good points you made, but its takes time for a sell to take place, by that time the Americans could already have taken control of the Philippines.

[jvonaxel]

Some more thoughts came to me

PH would have been a much better match for Germany than the USA;
-USA could get almost all if not all raw materials and agricultural products from the CONUS. Where as Germany would have come in with a shopping list a mile long for every item that PH produced.
-US industry was fully engaged to supply just their domestic market, it did not want or require the PH customers. On the other hand German industry would be throwing parties for every diplomat involved in this deal, for them getting such a great internal market. Plus jumping off point for China and Japan.
-Germany would now have saturated its demands for colonies, releasing the internal pressures that later let to the Herero campaign. And also allowing them to be much more laid back on the diplomatic front. I mean if you have PH who cares about Marrocco.

If the Germans were really smart they would also offer Spain inclusion in the Zollverein. This would allow the Spanish business continued access to the PH, as well as access to the German internal market. And in return a second European market for Germany. It would also allow synergies in their Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea colonies.

If you can later convince the Spanish to join AH and Germany in a mutual defense treaty. You could hear the screams of anguish from Paris in Berlin, see how they like having even a potential two front war. They would make a much better partner than Italy, which is in natural conflict with AH. At this point any diplomat in German service would be paraded through the streets for months, they would not be able to buy their own beer/champagne.

Regarding the time it takes to sell the PH remember they have from May 1st (start of Dewey's blockade) to June 30th when the first US troops landed in the PH to get it done. With all the pieces already in place, mutual good will, and the thought of pulling one over on the US. I can see the deal being done and signed with in a week or two. Yes more detailed treaties would have to follow but the hand off of sovereignty would be done.

[lordroel]

Feb 25, 2017 14:42:47 GMT jvonaxel said:

Regarding the time it takes to sell the PH remember they have from May 1st (start of Dewey's blockade) to June 30th when the first US troops landed in the PH to get it done. With all the pieces already in place, mutual good will, and the thought of pulling one over on the US. I can see the deal being done and signed with in a week or two. Yes more detailed treaties would have to follow but the hand off of sovereignty would be done.

I think the Kaiser if he manged to get the Philippines will at once send a large fleet to it to make sure to remind the US that they now own the Philippines.

[doug181]

I agree with Lordroel

[lordroel]

Mar 3, 2017 13:18:21 GMT doug181 said:

I agree with Lordroel

The German Imperial Navy would surely create a Pacific Squadron ore even a fleet.