Saddam Hussein is Allowed to Keep Kuwait

[lordroel]

Aug 10, 2016 13:58:59 GMT stevep said:

Aug 9, 2016 23:32:09 GMT futurist said:

Wouldn't nuking Iraq have resulted in tens of millions of Muslims becoming extremely pissed off at Israel, though?

  If those Mulsims don't have a nuclear capacity to attack Israel would the Israeli government, espeically a right wing one, be that bothered?  As long as their able to continue to get US support, which might be the deal breaker in such a move.

During the Gulf War Israel was hit by Iraq Scuds, Iraq does not need nuclear weapons, it has chemical, and biologic weapons it can send using a scud.

[stevep]

Aug 10, 2016 14:03:01 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 10, 2016 13:58:59 GMT stevep said:

  If those Mulsims don't have a nuclear capacity to attack Israel would the Israeli government, espeically a right wing one, be that bothered?  As long as their able to continue to get US support, which might be the deal breaker in such a move.

During the Gulf War Israel was hit by Iraq Scuds, Iraq does not need nuclear weapons, it has chemical, and biologic weapons it can send using a scud.

  Possibly but would that act as a deterrent to Isreal if they were worried enough about Iraq developing nukes.  Israel has some good defences against missile attack and a decapitated Iraq might not be in a position to make sure an attack. 

  Not saying that Isreal would definitely choose this route but I couldn't be sure they wouldn't either.

[lordroel]

Aug 10, 2016 14:07:33 GMT stevep said:

Aug 10, 2016 14:03:01 GMT lordroel said:

During the Gulf War Israel was hit by Iraq Scuds, Iraq does not need nuclear weapons, it has chemical, and biologic weapons it can send using a scud.

  Possibly but would that act as a deterrent to Isreal if they were worried enough about Iraq developing nukes.  Israel has some good defences against missile attack and a decapitated Iraq might not be in a position to make sure an attack. 

  Not saying that Isreal would definitely choose this route but I couldn't be sure they wouldn't either.

But does Israel going to care if Iraq is in one way or another allowed to keep Kuwait, as long as Iraq does not develop nuclear weapons Israel will leave Iraq alone i think.

[stevep]

Aug 10, 2016 14:13:00 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 10, 2016 14:07:33 GMT stevep said:

  Possibly but would that act as a deterrent to Isreal if they were worried enough about Iraq developing nukes.  Israel has some good defences against missile attack and a decapitated Iraq might not be in a position to make sure an attack. 

  Not saying that Isreal would definitely choose this route but I couldn't be sure they wouldn't either.

But does Israel going to care if Iraq is in one way or another allowed to keep Kuwait, as long as Iraq does not develop nuclear weapons Israel will leave Iraq alone i think.

  Isreal might be more worried about an Iraq with Kuwait as it will be richer and also annexation of an internationally recognised state would have been accepted.  However probably not far enough to consider using nukes.  It was the mention that Iraq was very close to its own nuclear weapons at the time and the presumption that without the allied actions in terms of the war to liberate Kuwait and sanctions on Iraq that they would have them shortly I was responding to.

[lordroel]

Aug 10, 2016 14:22:54 GMT stevep said:

Aug 10, 2016 14:13:00 GMT lordroel said:

But does Israel going to care if Iraq is in one way or another allowed to keep Kuwait, as long as Iraq does not develop nuclear weapons Israel will leave Iraq alone i think.

  Isreal might be more worried about an Iraq with Kuwait as it will be richer and also annexation of an internationally recognised state would have been accepted.  However probably not far enough to consider using nukes.  It was the mention that Iraq was very close to its own nuclear weapons at the time and the presumption that without the allied actions in terms of the war to liberate Kuwait and sanctions on Iraq that they would have them shortly I was responding to.

Isreal would repeat Operation Opera, the surprise Israeli air in 1981, which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, if Iraq is developing nuclear weapons and Israel finds out, then it will surely strike again, even if Iraq has Kuwait which might be more damaging to Iraq as the UN might place economic sanctions or even a weapons embargo against them.

[stevep]

Aug 10, 2016 14:27:37 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 10, 2016 14:22:54 GMT stevep said:

  Isreal might be more worried about an Iraq with Kuwait as it will be richer and also annexation of an internationally recognised state would have been accepted.  However probably not far enough to consider using nukes.  It was the mention that Iraq was very close to its own nuclear weapons at the time and the presumption that without the allied actions in terms of the war to liberate Kuwait and sanctions on Iraq that they would have them shortly I was responding to.

Isreal would repeat Operation Opera, the surprise Israeli air in 1981, which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, if Iraq is developing nuclear weapons and Israel finds out, then it will surely strike again, even if Iraq has Kuwait which might be more damaging to Iraq as the UN might place economic sanctions or even a weapons embargo against the

  That's an option they would consider but I suspect the Iraqis would be a hell of a lot more cautious about resisting any such strike.  Also for all the differences between Iraq and Syria the Syrians are likely to also be more protective of their air space.  Hence while the Israelis will at least consider this I wonder if this would work?

[lordroel]

Aug 10, 2016 16:47:38 GMT stevep said:

Aug 10, 2016 14:27:37 GMT lordroel said:

Isreal would repeat Operation Opera, the surprise Israeli air in 1981, which destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor, if Iraq is developing nuclear weapons and Israel finds out, then it will surely strike again, even if Iraq has Kuwait which might be more damaging to Iraq as the UN might place economic sanctions or even a weapons embargo against the

  That's an option they would consider but I suspect the Iraqis would be a hell of a lot more cautious about resisting any such strike.  Also for all the differences between Iraq and Syria the Syrians are likely to also be more protective of their air space.  Hence while the Israelis will at least consider this I wonder if this would work?

The fly Joardan who has no such air defense or over Saudi Arabia who of course will complain with the UN but also be happy that Iraq again is not able to become a nuclear power

[stevep]

Aug 10, 2016 16:49:10 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 10, 2016 16:47:38 GMT stevep said:

  That's an option they would consider but I suspect the Iraqis would be a hell of a lot more cautious about resisting any such strike.  Also for all the differences between Iraq and Syria the Syrians are likely to also be more protective of their air space.  Hence while the Israelis will at least consider this I wonder if this would work?

The fly Joardan who has no such air defense or over Saudi Arabia who of course will complain with the UN but also be happy that Iraq again is not able to become a nuclear power

  True that might well occur. More likely Jordan I suspect that Saudi who might be inclined to think a Iraqi nuke a counter to Iran.

[lordroel]

Aug 10, 2016 22:22:07 GMT stevep said:

Aug 10, 2016 16:49:10 GMT lordroel said:

The fly Joardan who has no such air defense or over Saudi Arabia who of course will complain with the UN but also be happy that Iraq again is not able to become a nuclear power

  True that might well occur. More likely Jordan I suspect that Saudi who might be inclined to think a Iraqi nuke a counter to Iran.

What about the Arab Cooperation Council, will it become something more in the 1990s or like OTL be disbanded.

[stevep]

Aug 11, 2016 2:51:59 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 10, 2016 22:22:07 GMT stevep said:

  True that might well occur. More likely Jordan I suspect that Saudi who might be inclined to think a Iraqi nuke a counter to Iran.

What about the Arab Cooperation Council, will it become something more in the 1990s or like OTL be disbanded.

  If there's concern about Iraq after it successfully annex Kuwait I rather suspect it will continue and be expanded.

[lordroel]

Aug 11, 2016 19:16:23 GMT stevep said:

Aug 11, 2016 2:51:59 GMT lordroel said:

What about the Arab Cooperation Council, will it become something more in the 1990s or like OTL be disbanded.

  If there's concern about Iraq after it successfully annex Kuwait I rather suspect it will continue and be expanded.

Syria might be the best candidate to join, Iran and Saudi Arabia will not join as long as Iraq is a member of the Arab Cooperation Council.

[stevep]

Drat! Sorry it was late and I was both tired and about to watch the Rugby Seven's final so I didn't check the link. I was assuming it was a coalition of the Gulf states, probably partially aimed at Iraq rather than something with Iraq as a member.

I doubt that Syria would be a likely future member given the antagonism between the two Ba'ath parties in the two countries. Think that as much as the Alawites conflict with Sunnis that meant Syria allied with Iran. Plus the historical tension between Damascus and Baghdad.

[lordroel]

Aug 12, 2016 16:38:51 GMT stevep said:

Drat! Sorry it was late and I was both tired and about to watch the Rugby Seven's final so I didn't check the link. I was assuming it was a coalition of the Gulf states, probably partially aimed at Iraq rather than something with Iraq as a member.

I doubt that Syria would be a likely future member given the antagonism between the two Ba'ath parties in the two countries. Think that as much as the Alawites conflict with Sunnis that meant Syria allied with Iran. Plus the historical tension between Damascus and Baghdad.

No problem, sorry for the lose of Great Britain to the great nation of Fiji, but back to topic, i think that Iraq with Kuwait will need allies as many countries will not be happy with Iraq.

[stevep]

Aug 12, 2016 16:43:14 GMT lordroel said:

Aug 12, 2016 16:38:51 GMT stevep said:

Drat! Sorry it was late and I was both tired and about to watch the Rugby Seven's final so I didn't check the link. I was assuming it was a coalition of the Gulf states, probably partially aimed at Iraq rather than something with Iraq as a member.

I doubt that Syria would be a likely future member given the antagonism between the two Ba'ath parties in the two countries. Think that as much as the Alawites conflict with Sunnis that meant Syria allied with Iran. Plus the historical tension between Damascus and Baghdad.

No problem, sorry for the lose of Great Britain to the great nation of Fiji, but back to topic, i think that Iraq with Kuwait will need allies as many countries will not be happy with Iraq.

  It will want allies but, apart from possibly the Russians who are in the process of imploding, I'm not sure who would be willing to play the role.  Syria will be hostile because of historical rivarly.  Iran doubly so after the bitter war with Iraq. 

  The Saudis might decide its better to have Iraq 'in their camp' but are likely to fear its a case if them becoming Sadam's puppet.  Also while Sadam played the role of Arab/Muslim leaders his regime was highly secular which would make the Saudis mistrust him further.

  Egypt is also unlikely to favour Iraq as a stronger and more dominant Iraq would challenge its ambitions to be the leader of the Arab world.

  On another matter I'm not to disappointed about the defeat [well after the 1st few hours. ].  It was the 8-1 try ratio that was really shattering.  I knew the Fijians were the favourites for the competition but that performance was awesome.  At least we got a silver and a gold in the cycling earlier.  [PLus two more today in rowing ]  Doubt we can keep 4th place but it would be nice.

[lordroel]

Aug 12, 2016 17:00:07 GMT stevep said:

Aug 12, 2016 16:43:14 GMT lordroel said:

No problem, sorry for the lose of Great Britain to the great nation of Fiji, but back to topic, i think that Iraq with Kuwait will need allies as many countries will not be happy with Iraq.

  It will want allies but, apart from possibly the Russians who are in the process of imploding, I'm not sure who would be willing to play the role.  Syria will be hostile because of historical rivarly.  Iran doubly so after the bitter war with Iraq. 

  The Saudis might decide its better to have Iraq 'in their camp' but are likely to fear its a case if them becoming Sadam's puppet.  Also while Sadam played the role of Arab/Muslim leaders his regime was highly secular which would make the Saudis mistrust him further.

  Egypt is also unlikely to favour Iraq as a stronger and more dominant Iraq would challenge its ambitions to be the leader of the Arab world.

  On another matter I'm not to disappointed about the defeat [well after the 1st few hours. ].  It was the 8-1 try ratio that was really shattering.  I knew the Fijians were the favourites for the competition but that performance was awesome.  At least we got a silver and a gold in the cycling earlier.  [PLus two more today in rowing ]  Doubt we can keep 4th place but it would be nice.

Saudi Arabia is the lesser of two evils, it has one thing in common, both it and Iraq hate Iran, i think Saudi Arabia can turn a blind eye to Iraq for having invaded and annex Kuwait.