Balance of Power

[stevep]

Does rather sound like Italy will be a geographical expression for a few decades yet. Especially with the continuation and relative success of both Austrian domination in the north and the assorted smaller states in the centre and south. It rather looks like if Italy does get unified the House of Savoy won't be providing leadership for it, let alone a monarch.

[bytor]

The flag of the Palatinate Republic is a modification of the flag of the old Electoral Palatinate from which it descends. The background is barry lozengy dexter azure on argent, rather than the sinister of the Electorate, in order to symbolise the "right" thinking of democracy. Defaced with a crownless lion palatine signifying that the citizens no longer bow to a monarch.

[bytor]

Mar 7, 2017 23:32:42 GMT stevep said:

Mar 7, 2017 21:09:33 GMT bytor said:

Well, let's just say that he started off as a reporter with leftist sentiments who became a prominent co-founder for a certain German philosophy that greatly affected later politics. ;-)

  Ah I was searching but not finding much until that clue.  Is he going to continue using that alias?  Possibly more to the point without his influence what happens to his OTL co-founder?  TTL may be somewhat less welcoming to his philosophy.  [Rather hope so given what happened OTL].

I don't honestly even know if he'll show up again. As you can probably tell, I tend to be more plot-driven than character-driven, and given that he was in the area at that time OTL, I thought it would make an amusing one-off for the blurb to go with the flag. I can say this, however: Herr Oswald's home is now a republic and no longer suffers from censorship of the press as in Prussia. In a universe where he never had to flee to Switzerland and then England but instead could stay in a sympathetic revolutionary republic, who knows what different influences he might have had?

[bytor]

Mar 7, 2017 23:36:48 GMT stevep said:

Especially with the continuation and relative success of both Austrian domination

"Success" might be a bit too positive a word.

The Kaiser got a bump in popularity from the start of the Euxine War, but as in OTL public opinion soon wavered as it dragged on and more soldiers were killed and people wondered why they were fighting for a a foreigner as their ruler. The existence of the Danubian Principalities and their tutelage under the Great Powers administered mostly by France and Austria hasn't exactly done wonders for attitudes in the Habsburg realms. The Transylvanians , seeing their Danubian kin as all but sovereign are calling out for a deal similar to what the Hungarians got in 1849. The Croatians and Slovenes had experienced Napoleonic rule as the Illyrian provinces 6-7 years and whatever faults one may ascribe to the First French Empire, it was still less autocratic and more free than living under Habsburg rule. Milan and Venice are restive as they see the the freedoms gained by their ethnic peers in the Cispadane Republic, and the Polish-Lithuanian rebellion in 1863 didn't help things in Austrian Galicia, either.

About the only non-German groups the Kaiser can count on are the Czechs and Moravians with their tendency to Germanize and fill up the imperial bureaucracy in every province.

Without involvement in the Second Schleswig War in 1864 in this ATL and no conflict with Prussia as per OTL, the only reason it's still the "Austrian Empire" at this point is that nobody has kicked things over.

[lordroel]

Mar 8, 2017 1:45:51 GMT bytor said:

it's still the "Austrian Empire" at this point is that nobody has kicked things over.

A matter of time i would assume sombody begins kicking the Austrain Empire.

[stevep]

I did say 'relative' success and was talking primarily about their continued rule of Milan and Venice. As you say its still distinctly unstable. I think the Croats were fairly loyal OTL simply because they distrusted the Hungarians too much. However without reform the wheels will come off at some point. It would depend on the circumstances however. OTL it too 4 years of pretty extreme conflict before it finally collapsed so it could still take some effort.

Is it still under Franz Joseph as Kaiser?

[bytor]

Mar 8, 2017 15:11:41 GMT stevep said:

Is it still under Franz Joseph as Kaiser?

Yes. He was only 18 when he came to power in 1848 so he would only be 41 in 1871 and OTL he lived a good long life even for today and nothing to me indicates that would change in my ATL. I need to read some more about him to find out what his OTL reactions were to the OTL 1867 reorg into Austria-Hungary and how much he had to be pushed into it or whether he was more willing. I'm not sure his attitudes when he was 18 are a good indicator because I'm sure we can all remember what we were like at that age. ;-)

[lordroel]

Mar 24, 2017 14:55:20 GMT bytor said:

Mar 8, 2017 15:11:41 GMT stevep said:

Is it still under Franz Joseph as Kaiser?

Yes. He was only 18 when he came to power in 1848 so he would only be 41 in 1871 and OTL he lived a good long life even for today and nothing to me indicates that would change in my ATL. I need to read some more about him to find out what his OTL reactions were to the OTL 1867 reorg into Austria-Hungary and how much he had to be pushed into it or whether he was more willing. I'm not sure his attitudes when he was 18 are a good indicator because I'm sure we can all remember what we were like at that age. ;-)

So he still marries Elisabeth.

[bytor]

Mar 24, 2017 14:59:30 GMT lordroel said:

So he still marries Elisabeth.

I don't see why not.

[lordroel]

Mar 27, 2017 18:58:22 GMT bytor said:

Mar 24, 2017 14:59:30 GMT lordroel said:

So he still marries Elisabeth.

I don't see why not.

Unless you have a different candidate for him to marry.

[bytor]

Preliminary South America in 1871

[stevep]

Bytor

Just caught up with the TL again. That's a big Peru but how stable is it going to be?

A bit surprised that Patagonia has avoided conquest by Argentina and Chile this long although it did put up a hell of a fight OTL and at times there were attempts to get a Patagonia monarchy recognised which nearly succeeded at time.

Good to see the TL still active. Thanks.

Steve

[bytor]

May 25, 2017 22:25:45 GMT stevep said:

Bytor

Just caught up with the TL again. That's a big Peru but how stable is it going to be?

Well, this is Latin America, after all, and the historical forces that produced all those caudillos do not simply disappear.  
Compared to modern OTL democracies, you and I would certainly call it a fractious and possibly troubled one, but relative to that times it is stable and orderly thanks to pure dumb luck. :-)

The survival of the Peru-Bolivian Confederation thanks to British and French meddling in the war with Chile meant they had a taste of international trade and the wealth brought by it. So instead of civil war after being defeated by Chile they end up ousting "Supreme Protector" Santa Cruz and reorganizing into a federal republic along the lines of the USA but with a weaker presidency (no more "Supreme Protector" dictator nonsense) and a strong senate with members appointed by the states (keeping all the factions happy). The caudillos, through dumb luck, were unintentionally limited to their own states as the senate prevented them from gaining national power as well as limiting their regional power. So when the Ecuadorian–Peruvian territorial dispute of 1857–60 comes to a head, a Greater Peru with 20 years worth of (relatively) stable elections instead of self-appointed caudillos and economic growth, they annex Ecuador instead of just taking sides in the Ecuadorian Civil War.

May 25, 2017 22:25:45 GMT stevep said:

A bit surprised that Patagonia has avoided conquest by Argentina and Chile this long although it did put up a hell of a fight OTL and at times there were attempts to get a Patagonia monarchy recognised which nearly succeeded at time.

Good to see the TL still active. Thanks.

Steve

Even OTL neither Chile nor Argentina had any interest in claiming or settling Patagonia until the 1880s, so the same thing applies in this ATL. For whatever reasons, they just were not as interested in spreading south as the USA was in spreading west during roughly the same time period.

[lordroel]

May 25, 2017 17:42:40 GMT bytor said:

Preliminary South America in 1871

View Attachment

Nice map, i wonder if Brazil will remain a empire in 20 years drom the date of the map.

[bytor]

South America Jumps on the Bandwagon
Part I, 1812-1842

The continent where Napoleon’s conquests would have some of their biggest effects was one where he fought no wars. The placing of Joseph Bonaparte on the throne of Spain as a client state of the French Empire triggered decades of civil wars in the Spanish Viceroyalties in the New World. The flight of the Portuguese royal family to Brazil was have its own effects that would become intertwined with the rest of the continent.

In the Spanish colonies, what was initially a Bourbon Loyalist reaction to the removal of Ferdinand VII quickly turned into wars of independence which turned into civil wars and later into caudillos fighting for control of the central governments.

Simon Bolivar was influential in the Viceroyalties of New Granada and Peru, setting up three new republics - Peru, Colombia, and the eponymous Bolivia - but while he got the the people to rebel against Spain he never got them to agree with each other. To the Regionalists, Bolivar and the Federalists looked just like the armies Ferdinand had sent to retake control of the colonies after regaining the throne in 1813, and they feared reforms like the ones the Cadíz Junta attempted to carry out in the monarch’s name. After the Spanish civil war in the 1820s and the fracturing of the Kingdom, rumours abounded that Leónese and Aragónese diplomats had promised aid and trade to the Regionalists, adding fuel to the fire that they wished to retain what Castile could not, but nothing ever came of them.

When Bolivar died in December of 1830, his Republic of Colómbia had split in three separate republics. Even before the end of “Gran Colómbia”, as those looking back with nostalgia called it, the young nation had gone to war with the nation of Peru over the Amazonian territories where the border of the old Viceroyalties had been imprecise. The name given by him also ceased to exist when the remaining departments reorganised themselves as the Republic of Nueva Granada.

While all that was happening in the north and west of the continent, the other half of the continent was also embroiled in conflict..

The flight of the Portuguese monarchy to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in November of 1807 had resulted in the elevation of the colony of Brazil to being a kingdom of it’s own, and King John VI’s return to Europe in 1821 sent fears throughout the nation that it would be reduced back to colonial status. As a result, Prince Royal Peter proclaimed independence as the Empire of Brazil. Peter’s first problem was the Banda Oriental of the Rio Plata. After having gained it from the United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata in 1821 only to lose it again in 1828 thanks to British and French interference. The solution proposed by the European powers who were eager to restore the trade that had been cut off by the Brazilian blockade of Buenos Aires was that the Banda Oriental was to become the sovereign Eastern Republic of Uruguay that would carry out relations with both the U.P. and Brazil to prevent further war.

Uruguay, however, was no different than the rest of the Spanish Americas and within a decade was in the middle of its own civil war with Fructuoso Rivera being backed by the French who had maintained a strong diplomatic presence in Uruguay that had grown to the French Navy escorting merchant ships across the Atlantic ocean. When Rivera was forced to flee Uruguay after Manuel Oribe returned with troops from the Argentine Confederation, he escaped to the newly proclaimed Republic of Riograndense where he would meet Italian Giuseppe Garibaldi. France’s new King Louis Philippe spied an opportunity against the unstable Brazilian regency for young Peter II. By recognising the government of Riograndense this made France a party to the so-called Ragamuffin War between Brazil and Riograndense which Louis-Philippe used as an excuse to invade Portuguese Guiana in the north, long contested by the French and Portuguese, as part of prosecuting the war against Brazil. When Rivera’s army forced Oribe to flee Uruguay for the Argentine Confederation, Rivera returned to become its next president. Garibaldi became the President of Riograndense and with French help invaded the neighbouring Brazilian province of Santa Catarina in support of Ragamuffin sympathisers. The Juliana Republic was proclaimed and shortly after it signed a treaty of union with Riograndense, the Imperial Brazilian Navy attacked the port of Laguna. Though routed by a French naval fleet, the territory of the Juliana Republic was never fully held by Ragamuffin rebels and the front lines between Riograndense and Brazil fluctuated back and forth.

In 1842 France, Brazil and Riograndense signed the Treaty of Cayenne and ended the Ragamuffin War. Brazil is forced to recognise the independence of Riograndense but in return for receiving back Santa Catarina from the rebels, Brazil ceded the portion of Grao-Para Province known informally as Portuguese Guyana to France. Thus freed, French troops entered Uruguay to support Rivera and along with British troops the coalition defeated Oribe and hs Argentine backers at the Battle of Arroyo Grande. The British and French lifted their blockade of Buenos Aires which had been put in place when Rivera had returned to Uruguay and the Argentine Confederation ratified the Treaty of Arroyo Grande in which it pledged to never again interfere in Uruguayan affairs. Free navigation of the Paraná, Uruguay, and Plata rivers without tolls is given to all adjoining nations in the hopes of reducing conflict and increasing trade to Europe.

In Bolivia, know before as Alto Peru, Marshal Andres de Santa Cruz emerged from the instability following war with Peru to become president of Bolivia. Around the same time as the start of the civil war in Uruguay he invades Peru in support of ousted President General Luis Orbegoso. Orbegoso had taken over from General Augstín de Gamarra who had initiated several conflicts with Bolivia, and it was an ally of Gamarra’s, General Felipe Salaverry, who overthrew Orbegoso in turn. As a result, Santa Cruz effects the creation of the Republics of North and South Peru with himself declared as Supreme Protector of the Peru-Bolivian Confederation. He extends social and economic policies to this new nation that he had successfully, if dictatorially, instituted in Bolivia. The Confederation is seen as a threat by neighbouring countries, especially Chile and Argentina as Peru had a history of harbouring Chilean dissidents, and Bolivia the Argentine ones. Britain and France, who along with the USA had immediately recognised the Confederation, managed to secure Santa Cruz’s promise to abstain from meddling in the affairs of the Argentine Confederation in Tucamán Province, though due to a preemptive attack by Chilean forces in August of 1836 prior to the act of confederation they were unable to prevent the neighbours from going to war.

The war was short lived due to Chile’s internal dissension which resulted in the assassination of senior minister and power-behind-the-throne Diego Portales. This was blamed on the Peru-Bolivian Confederation, but the Chilean army was still outmanœvred and the war ended with the Treaty of Paucarpata, signed on the 17th of November, 1837. Britain and France, who wished to maintain the new trade with Santa Cruz’s Confederacy, pushed Chile into returning the Peruvian defectors that had convinced Chile to make that preemptive attack in August of the previous year, and for Peru-Bolivia to reinstate the Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation that Peru had signed in 1835 but then voided in 1836. However, Santa cruz had the defectors summarily executed without trial for treason and this provoked Chile into declaring war again. The first new attack was a naval one in January of 1838 and it was intercepted by a small British fleet that had still been in the area after bringing the new British consul to the Confederation in advance of a formal embassy. British and French diplomats threatened Chile with a blockade and sanctions if it failed to abide by the Treaty of Paucarpata, and while the second declaration of war is never rescinded no further attacks were made.

As a result of the political fallout from the war with Chile, his execution of the Peruvian traitors, and his own dictatorial style, Santa Cruz was pushed out of the Confederacy’s presidency in the fall of 1840 and forced to give up his title of Supreme Protector. A National Congress was called to define a new constitution and shape the powers of the presidency. Almost five years of economic and legal reforms along with increasing trade with Britain, France and the USA have had obvious benefits, but they were not fully shared by the elites of Lima and the Republic of North Peru who had always enjoyed greater economic closeness with Venezuela. The congress, pressured by British, French and US diplomats to maintain open trade and markets, decided on a constitution similar to the US one, but with a weaker presidency to prevent a dictator and more power to the states to keep North Peruvian factions from causing problems. On April 2nd, 1841, the Confederacy became the Federal Republic of Greater Peru (República Federal del Gran Perú) comprised of 13 constituent states and the capital region at Tacna. That August, Ramón Castilla y Marquesado is elected as the first president of Gran Perú.