Japan won the Imjin War

[eurofed]

ITTL Japan seized a decisive victory in the Imjin War, successfully assimilated Korea, and never turned isolationist. Yu Sun-sin, the genius Korean admiral, was killed in battle against the Jurchen, or fell victim to false accusations of desertion and was executed, before the war. As a result, the Korean navy made a poor performance, the Japanese seized the upper hand in the naval war, and kept their supply lines secure throughout the conflict. The Japanese crushed Korean resistance, and were able to kill or capture the Korean royal family and court during their initial offensive drive, causing organized Korean resistance to collapse. Some degree of Korean resistance occasionally flared up for a few years, but was eventually suppressed. Korea was assimilated into the Japanese Empire by a mix of land redistribution to Japanese nobles, assimilation of Korean elites into Japanese ones, and cultural fusion.

Toyotomi Hideyoshi lived a few years longer ITTL and was able to establish an undisputed succession. Tokugawa Ieyasu was assassinated by a rogue Hojo samurai in the 1590s. Therefore, when the Tokugawa tried to challenge the supremacy of the Toyotomi in Japan, they were defeated without excessive difficulty. This, in combination with most daimyos being busy fighting or happily consolidating their new gains on the continent, secured undisputed Toyotomi control of the Shogunate.

The decline of the Ming dynasty got slightly accelerated in comparison to OTL, so it was already in its terminal phase by the end of the 16th century. Toyotomi Hideyoshi was able to form alliances with Spain and the Jurchen leader Nurhaci against the Ming, in order to fulfill his own ambition of conquering Korea and China. He bargained Spain's naval support for tolerance of Christians and free access of Spanish merchants and missionaries in the Japanese Empire. He promised the Jurchen control of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Tibet. In his plans, the Japanese Emperor would become the overlord of Japan, Korea, and China, under the control of the Toyotomi as the power behind the throne.

When the Ming tried to contest Japanese conquest of Korea, they were defeated by a combination of samurai, Korean conscripts, and Jurchen raiders. They were pushed back all the way to Beijing, which fell. The Japanese also landed an expeditionary corps with Spanish support and seized Nanjing. These defeats utterly discredited the Ming, whose power was already in severe decline. Many Chinese decided the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn, and China fell into chaos. Although Ming remnants kept some support across southern China for a few years, their power was broken when the last Ming emperor took his life after the fall of Nanjing.

The Japanese and the Jurchen started fighting for control of China soon after the collapse of the Ming. Eventually the Jurchen won in and entrenched their control of China proper and Mongolia, starting the Manchu dynasty. However the Japanese conquered and kept Greater Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan, which became subject to extensive Japanese-Korean colonization. Eventually, Manchu China and Toyotomi Japan-Korea accepted peace alongside these lines. Because of its alliance ties with Spain, the Japanese Empire kept its borders open to trade and cultural exchanges with the West, ensuring its society developed at an equal pace with the European powers. It granted ongoing tolerance to Christians, ensuring a sizable portion of the Japanese-Korean population eventually turned Christian, although the Empire stayed religiously mixed. Manchu China, however, turned out isolationist much the same way as OTL.

The outward-looking, expansionist focus of the Japanese Empire and its colonization of Manchuria made Karafuto (OTL Sakhalin) and the Far East another natural target of Japanese expansionism. The Russians tried to contest this as part of their drive to expand across Siberia to the Pacific. However the Japanese-Koreans enjoyed a serious logistic advantage since the area was close to to their home bases and they could easily reach it by land or sea, whereas the Russians had to made a trek across all of Siberia through the Siberian rivers routes. As a result, Japan-Korea won all the colonial and border conflicts with Russia throughout the 17th century. In 1690, a peace treaty consolidated the Russian-Japanese border on the Lena River and Lake Baikal. Just like Greater Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan, Karafuto, the Trans-Baikal, and the other habitable portions of the Japanese Far East became subject to extensive Japanese-Korean colonization.

As a reference to events in Europe, you may assume the Iberian kingdoms unified by marriage under the Aviz, and the Iberian Union never broke down once established. Without the Spanish inheritance, the Habsburg were driven to focus on Germany and take a practical attitude towards religious reform. They were able to centralize the HRE under their rule, and establish Germany as one of Europe's great powers. The Dutch Revolt never occurred. The Aviz-Habsburg alliance contained France and pushed the Ottomans out of the Balkans and the Med.

[lordroel]

Mar 15, 2017 1:27:35 GMT eurofed said:

ITTL Japan seized a decisive victory in the Imjin War, successfully assimilated Korea, and never turned isolationist. Yu Sun-sin, the talented Korean admiral, was killed in battle against the Jurchen or fell victim to false accusations of desertion and was executed before the war. As a result, the Korean navy made a poor performance, and the Japanese were able to seize the upper hand in the land and on the sea and secure their supply lines throughout the conflict. The Japanese crushed Korean resistance, and were able to kill or capture the Korean royal family and court during their initial offensive drive, causing organized Korean resistance to collapse. Some degree of Korean resistance still occasionally flared up for a few years, but was eventually suppressed. Korea was assimilated into the Japanese Empire by a mix of land redistribution to Japanese nobles, assimilation of Korean elites into Japanese ones, and cultural fusion.

Toyotomi Hideyoshi lived a few years longer ITTL and was able to establish an undisputed succession. Tokugawa Ieyasu was assassinated by a rogue Hojo samurai in the 1590s. Therefore, when the Tokugawa tried to challenge the supremacy of the Toyotomi in Japan, they were defeated without excessive difficulty. This, in combination with most daimyos being busy fighting or consolidating their new gains in Korea, Manchuria, or China, secured undisputed Toyotomi control of the Shogunate.

The decline of the Ming dynasty got slightly accelerated in comparison to OTL, so it was already in its terminal phase by the end of the 16th century. Toyotomi Hideyoshi was able to form alliances with Spain and the Jurchen leader Nurhaci against the Ming, in order to fulfill his ambition of conquering China after Korea. He bargained Spain's naval support for tolerance of Christians and free access of Spanish merchants and missionaries in the Japanese Empire. He promised the Jurchen control of Mongolia, Manchuria, and Tibet. In his plans, the Japanese Emperor would become the nominal overlord of Japan, Korea, and China, under the control of the Toyotomi as the power behind the throne.

When the Ming tried to contest Japanese conquest of Korea, they were defeated by a combination of samurai, Korean conscripts, and Jurchen raiders. They were pushed back all the way to Beijing, which fell. The Japanese also landed an expeditionary corps with Spanish support and seized Nanjing. These defeats utterly discredited the Ming, whose power was already in severe decline. Many Chinese decided the Mandate of Heaven had been withdrawn, and China fell into chaos. Although Ming remnants kept some support across southern China for a few years, their power was broken when the last Ming emperor took his life.

The Japanese and the Jurchen started fighting for control of China soon after the collapse of the Ming. Eventually the Jurchen won and entrenched their control of China proper and Mongolia, starting the Manchu dynasty. However the Japanese conquered and kept Greater Manchuria, Taiwan, and Hainan, which became subject to extensive Japanese-Korean colonization. Eventually, Manchu China and Toyotomi Japan-Korea accepted peace alongside these lines. Because of its alliance ties with Spain, the Japanese Empire kept its borders open to trade and cultural exchanges with the West, ensuring its society developed at an equal pace with the European powers. It granted ongoing tolerance to Christians, ensuring a sizable portion of the Japanese-Korean population eventually turned Christian, although the Empire stayed religiously mixed. Manchu China, however, turned out isolationist much the same way as OTL.

As a reference to events in Europe, you may assume the Iberian kingdoms unified by marriage under the Aviz, and the Iberian Union never broke down once established. Without the Spanish inheritance, the Habsburg were driven to focus on Germany and take a practical attitude towards religious reform. They were able to centralize the HRE under their rule, and establish Germany as one of Europe's great powers. The Dutch Revolt never occurred. The Aviz-Habsburg alliance contained France and pushed the Ottomans out of the Balkans and the Med.  

So Japan manged to conquer Korea 425 years in the past.

[eurofed]

Mar 15, 2017 3:43:29 GMT lordroel said:

So Japan manged to conquer Korea 425 years in the past.

Yep. Of course it makes political assimilation and cultural fusion of the two nations that much easier. Moreover, this way Japan-Korea entirely skips its isolationist and static Tokugawa/Joseon phase, and keeps steady contact with the West, so you could say the Japanese Empire managed to make the equivalent of Meiji modernization two centuries and half earlier, including becoming an outward-looking, seafaring, imperialist regional power that much earlier (although not any more ruthless than its neighbors for period standards). Of course, in these circumstances it does so by keeping the Shogunate and feudal hierarchy, but it occurs when when the world at large is still pre-industrial, so it makes sense.  

Admittedly, I could have pushed the scenario all the way to the Toyotomi conquering China as well, since Ming China was getting ripe for foreign conquest at the time, as the Manchu proved just a little later. However this would have turned into the Chinese assimilating their conquerors yet again, and Japan and Korea being assimilated into a larger Chinese Empire.

[doug181]

Very interesting timeline

[lordroel]

Wonder who is going to assimilate who, the Japanese becoming Korean ore the Koreans becoming Japanese if you now what i mean.

[eurofed]

Mar 16, 2017 23:33:35 GMT lordroel said:

Wonder who is going to assimilate who, the Japanese becoming Korean ore the Koreans becoming Japanese if you now what i mean.

The two halves of the union are close and balanced enough in power and importance that I expect a good degree of genuine fusion, liberally spinkled with Western influences since its borders remain open to Europeans, taking place. Japanese and Korean elites intermarry extensively up to and including the Yamato and Toyotomi families; language becomes some kind of 'Japorean' hybrid; the elites drop Chinese characters and develop an alphabet writing system as a combination and evolution of hiragana/katakana and hangui, or a modified form of the Mongolian script, with romaji as a widespread auxiliary system; the figurehead Emperor stays in Kyoto, but the ruling Shogun relocates to Shinkyō (OTL Changchun) once Greater Manchuria becomes settled and 'Japoreanized' enough, the better to control the Northeast Asian core of the empire from a central position. This is the combined effect of the Japanese-Korean union as a fusion of equal halves, its extension to Greater Manchuria, Greater Japan-Korea rising in power and prestige to be a true equal and rival of Qing China (even more so if and when the Empire goes on to colonize Southeast Asia and/or the west coast of North America), its culture becoming outward-looking and dynamic and largely rejecting excessive Confucian influence because of ongoing and extensive contacts with Europe and imperial expansion, etc.

[lordroel]

Mar 17, 2017 1:20:34 GMT eurofed said:

Mar 16, 2017 23:33:35 GMT lordroel said:

Wonder who is going to assimilate who, the Japanese becoming Korean ore the Koreans becoming Japanese if you now what i mean.

The two halves of the union are close and balanced enough in power and importance that I expect a good degree of genuine fusion, liberally spinkled with Western influences since its borders remain open to Europeans, taking place. Japanese and Korean elites intermarry extensively up to and including the Yamato and Toyotomi families; language becomes some kind of 'Japorean' hybrid; the elites drop Chinese characters and develop an alphabet writing system as a combination and evolution of hiragana/katakana and hangui, or a modified form of the Mongolian script, with romaji as a widespread auxiliary system; the figurehead Emperor stays in Kyoto, but the ruling Shogun relocates to Shinkyō (OTL Changchun) once Greater Manchuria becomes settled and 'Japoreanized' enough, the better to control the Northeast Asian core of the empire from a central position. This is the combined effect of the Japanese-Korean union as a fusion of equal halves, its extension to Greater Manchuria, Greater Japan-Korea rising in power and prestige to be a true equal and rival of Qing China (even more so if and when the Empire goes on to colonize Southeast Asia and/or the west coast of North America), its culture becoming outward-looking and dynamic and largely rejecting excessive Confucian influence because of ongoing and extensive contacts with Europe and imperial expansion, etc.

So are we still going to call it Japan.

[eurofed]

Mar 17, 2017 9:10:18 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 17, 2017 1:20:34 GMT eurofed said:

The two halves of the union are close and balanced enough in power and importance that I expect a good degree of genuine fusion, liberally spinkled with Western influences since its borders remain open to Europeans, taking place. Japanese and Korean elites intermarry extensively up to and including the Yamato and Toyotomi families; language becomes some kind of 'Japorean' hybrid; the elites drop Chinese characters and develop an alphabet writing system as a combination and evolution of hiragana/katakana and hangui, or a modified form of the Mongolian script, with romaji as a widespread auxiliary system; the figurehead Emperor stays in Kyoto, but the ruling Shogun relocates to Shinkyō (OTL Changchun) once Greater Manchuria becomes settled and 'Japoreanized' enough, the better to control the Northeast Asian core of the empire from a central position. This is the combined effect of the Japanese-Korean union as a fusion of equal halves, its extension to Greater Manchuria, Greater Japan-Korea rising in power and prestige to be a true equal and rival of Qing China (even more so if and when the Empire goes on to colonize Southeast Asia and/or the west coast of North America), its culture becoming outward-looking and dynamic and largely rejecting excessive Confucian influence because of ongoing and extensive contacts with Europe and imperial expansion, etc.

So are we still going to call it Japan.

I think 'Japan-Korea' is sufficiently appropriate. A poster in another forum apparently fancied 'Greater Japan'. I am good with either option although both fail to entirely represent the situation. If someone can think of a culturally-appropriate name that would adequately represent the totality of non-Chinese Northeast Asia and this Japanese-Korean-Jurchen imperial melange of a nation, I'm all for it.  

[lordroel]

Mar 17, 2017 16:08:31 GMT eurofed said:

Mar 17, 2017 9:10:18 GMT lordroel said:

So are we still going to call it Japan.

I think 'Japan-Korea' is sufficiently appropriate. A poster in another forum apparently fancied 'Greater Japan'. I am good with either option although both fail to entirely represent the situation. If someone can think of a culturally-appropriate name that would adequately represent the totality of non-Chinese Northeast Asia and this Japanese-Korean-Jurchen imperial melange of a nation, I'm all for it.  

Could also be Kopan (Korea,Japan).

[eurofed]

Mar 17, 2017 16:11:31 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 17, 2017 16:08:31 GMT eurofed said:

I think 'Japan-Korea' is sufficiently appropriate. A poster in another forum apparently fancied 'Greater Japan'. I am good with either option although both fail to entirely represent the situation. If someone can think of a culturally-appropriate name that would adequately represent the totality of non-Chinese Northeast Asia and this Japanese-Korean-Jurchen imperial melange of a nation, I'm all for it.  

Could also be Kopan (Korea,Japan).

Or for that matter, Japorea. I'm not sure what option works better. Perhaps 'Kopan' for the language/culture (it rolls better off the tongue), and 'Japorea' for the nation (it is more recognizable). Unfortunately, neither probably works in-setting. However, I may have an idea. The Sea of Japan works very much like an interior lake for this nation, and an ancient Chinese name for it was "Whale Sea". A Japanese-Korean shorthand for "Land of the Whale Sea" would work fine as an inclusive, neutral name for a nation encompassing all of Northeast Asia, and probably sound sufficiently poetic to satisfy the tastes of the daimyo. Of course, they are not going to use the Chinese version for political reasons. Unfortunately, I lack the linguistic competence to create an adequate Japanese/Korean-sounding version of this name in romaji.  

[lordroel]

Mar 17, 2017 19:14:17 GMT eurofed said:

Mar 17, 2017 16:11:31 GMT lordroel said:

Could also be Kopan (Korea,Japan).

Or for that matter, Japorea. I'm not sure what option works better. Perhaps 'Kopan' for the language/culture (it rolls better off the tongue), and 'Japorea' for the nation (it is more recognizable). Unfortunately, neither probably works in-setting. However, I may have an idea. The Sea of Japan works very much like an interior lake for this nation, and an ancient Chinese name for it was "Whale Sea". A Japanese-Korean shorthand for "Land of the Whale Sea" would work fine as an inclusive, neutral name for a nation encompassing all of Northeast Asia, and probably sound sufficiently poetic to satisfy the tastes of the daimyo. Of course, they are not going to use the Chinese version for political reasons. Unfortunately, I lack the linguistic competence to create an adequate Japanese/Korean-sounding version of this name in romaji.  

Seems that Korea uses the name Donghae (동해, literally East Sea) for over 2,000 years as the name for what is called the Sea of Japan.

[eurofed]

Mar 17, 2017 20:07:58 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 17, 2017 19:14:17 GMT eurofed said:

Or for that matter, Japorea. I'm not sure what option works better. Perhaps 'Kopan' for the language/culture (it rolls better off the tongue), and 'Japorea' for the nation (it is more recognizable). Unfortunately, neither probably works in-setting. However, I may have an idea. The Sea of Japan works very much like an interior lake for this nation, and an ancient Chinese name for it was "Whale Sea". A Japanese-Korean shorthand for "Land of the Whale Sea" would work fine as an inclusive, neutral name for a nation encompassing all of Northeast Asia, and probably sound sufficiently poetic to satisfy the tastes of the daimyo. Of course, they are not going to use the Chinese version for political reasons. Unfortunately, I lack the linguistic competence to create an adequate Japanese/Korean-sounding version of this name in romaji.  

Seems that Korea uses the name Donghae (동해, literally East Sea) for over 2,000 years as the name for what is called the Sea of Japan.

I'm aware of it, but I think with the much larger borders of this nation, the "east" qualification would no longer be appropriate. I assume the name is going to change to "inner" or "center" sea, since it is going to be a de facto lake. I'm not sure if "land of the center sea" would work as a proper name for the nation, or look tautological. That's why I thought they might use a translation of the Chinese name (Whale Sea) that seems more descriptive. I'm open to suggestions and opinions on this issue, however.

[lordroel]

Mar 17, 2017 20:25:34 GMT eurofed said:

Mar 17, 2017 20:07:58 GMT lordroel said:

Seems that Korea uses the name Donghae (동해, literally East Sea) for over 2,000 years as the name for what is called the Sea of Japan.

I'm aware of it, but I think with the much larger borders of this nation, the "east" qualification would no longer be appropriate. I assume the name is going to change to "inner" or "center" sea, since it is going to be a de facto lake. I'm not sure if "land of the center sea" would work as a proper name for the nation, or look tautological. That's why I thought they might use a translation of the Chinese name (Whale Sea) that seems more descriptive. I'm open to suggestions and opinions on this issue, however.

Well what ever the name will be, it will take many years for it to happen because i do not think the Koreans are going to stop resisting the Japanese for many years to come.

[eurofed]

Mar 17, 2017 20:32:35 GMT lordroel said:

Mar 17, 2017 20:25:34 GMT eurofed said:

I'm aware of it, but I think with the much larger borders of this nation, the "east" qualification would no longer be appropriate. I assume the name is going to change to "inner" or "center" sea, since it is going to be a de facto lake. I'm not sure if "land of the center sea" would work as a proper name for the nation, or look tautological. That's why I thought they might use a translation of the Chinese name (Whale Sea) that seems more descriptive. I'm open to suggestions and opinions on this issue, however.

Well what ever the name will be, it will take many years for it to happen because i do not think the Koreans are going to stop resisting the Japanese for many years to come.

I am driven to assume it would go just like most other cases of successful conquest and assimilation, or regime change, in premodern polities. After organized resistance is first crushed on the battlefield, pacification starts, but enough resentment lingers that rebellions occasionally flare up for a decade or three. Then pacification sets in for good, old elites get integrated or substituted in the new power structure, the masses get accustomed to accept the new status quo as a fact of life, in the next generation or two. In a century or so, cultural and political assimilation of the elites is basically done, people think of the status quo as natural or have issues with it because of entirely different reasons (factional power struggles, taxation etc.). I see no good reasons to expect Korea would be a different special case, since there would not be any damning cultural or religious differences with Japan, or Korea being subject to an inferior, colonial status, to support sustained, widespread hostility.

[lordroel]

Mar 17, 2017 22:30:08 GMT eurofed said:

Mar 17, 2017 20:32:35 GMT lordroel said:

Well what ever the name will be, it will take many years for it to happen because i do not think the Koreans are going to stop resisting the Japanese for many years to come.

I am driven to assume it would go just like most other cases of successful conquest and assimilation, or regime changes, in premodern polities. After organized resistance is first crushed on the battlefield, pacification stats, but enough resentment lingers that rebellions occasionally flare up for a decade or three. Then pacification sets in for good, old elites get integrated or substituted in the new power structure, the masses get accustomed to accept the new status quo as a fact of life, in the next generation or two. In a century or so, cultural and political assimilation of the elites is basically done, people think of the status quo as natural or have issues with it because of entirely different reasons (factional power struggles, taxation etc.). I see no good reasons to expect Korea would be a different special case, since there would not be any damning cultural or religious differences with Japan to support sustained, widespread hostility.

What about China, i doubt they are going to like Japan taking over Korea.