What if: Spanish-Portuguese war in 1975

[lordroel]

It seemed that Spain was ready to declare war on neighboring Portugal to stem the perceived threat of communism during the final months of General Francisco Franco's dictatorship, so what if there was a Spanish-Portuguese war of 1975.

Here is some more information.

Carlos Arias Navarro, the last Spanish prime minister to serve under Gen Franco, met with US officials to garner support for such a move.

General Franco’s government was ‘deeply concerned’ by events across the border following the ‘Carnation’ Revolution of April, 1974

The revolution, a ‘pacific’ overthrow by the Left which put an end to Portugal’s authoritarian regime and let the nation free, set on the path to democracy, reportedly ignited worries that General Franco’s own regime could go the same way.

Mr Arias privately assured the Americans that "adequate precautions" were being taken to prevent "the events in Portugal from spilling over the Spanish border," a report from the time claims.

Six months before General Franco’s death in November 1975 his prime minister met with the US deputy Secretary of State to express Spanish concerns and win backing for a military intervention.

"Portugal posed a serious threat to Spain, not only because of the way the situation there was developing, but because of the foreign support it might ultimately receive, which could be hostile to Spain," wrote diplomat Robert Ingersoll to the then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, in a report on the March 1975 meeting.

In his report Robert Ingersoll summarised, “Spain would fight the anti-communist battle alone if necessary but it hoped that it would have the cooperation and understanding of its friends, not only in the Spanish interest but in the interests of all who think the same.”

[doug181]

Sounds complicated,wasn't Portugal a NATO member?

[lordroel]

Jan 4, 2017 18:39:27 GMT doug181 said:

Sounds complicated,wasn't Portugal a NATO member?

One of the reason i might suspect the United States did not allow Spain to invade.

[stevep]

Jan 4, 2017 18:46:18 GMT lordroel said:

Jan 4, 2017 18:39:27 GMT doug181 said:

Sounds complicated,wasn't Portugal a NATO member?

One of the reason i might suspect the United States did not allow Spain to invade.

  Very likely. Both directly and because I suspect the European members of NATO would definitely take a dim view of a Spanish invasion of a NATO member.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Jan 4, 2017 20:23:11 GMT stevep said:

Jan 4, 2017 18:46:18 GMT lordroel said:

One of the reason i might suspect the United States did not allow Spain to invade.

  Very likely. Both directly and because I suspect the European members of NATO would definitely take a dim view of a Spanish invasion of a NATO member.

  Steve

But what if the Carnation Revolution was a communist revolution and the new Portuguese government, now communist declared they where leaving the NATO organization, this would be a very big threat to Spain i would think.

[doug181]

I think another different game if Portugal leaves NATO. Then possibly Spain would be allowed to intervene.

[lordroel]

Jan 5, 2017 1:29:51 GMT doug181 said:

I think another different game if Portugal leaves NATO. Then possibly Spain would be allowed to intervene.

Still not think the United States will allow Spain to intervene, might risk World War III if the Soviets intervene on behave of a now friendly Portugal.

[stevep]

Jan 5, 2017 4:05:54 GMT lordroel said:

Jan 5, 2017 1:29:51 GMT doug181 said:

I think another different game if Portugal leaves NATO. Then possibly Spain would be allowed to intervene.

Still not think the United States will allow Spain to intervene, might risk World War III if the Soviets intervene on behave of a now friendly Portugal.

  I don't know.  Portugal is clearly in western Europe and controls important shipping lanes so I think western intervention would be very likely.  Probably initially by backing right wing or at least anti-communist groups, of which there are likely to be a few.  Spain might be a factor in this or be presuaded to leave it to NATO as intervention by a Spanish right wing dictatorship could be too controversal.

  It might be purely support for internal forces, like the coup in Chile.  Would depend on what resources there were for both pro and anti communists elements and how critical time was for the western powers.  If they though the Soviets might start basing forces in Portugal that could prompt direct intervention as there might not be time for supporting internal revolution.

  Steve

[lordroel]

Jan 5, 2017 20:51:19 GMT stevep said:

Jan 5, 2017 4:05:54 GMT lordroel said:

Still not think the United States will allow Spain to intervene, might risk World War III if the Soviets intervene on behave of a now friendly Portugal.

  I don't know.  Portugal is clearly in western Europe and controls important shipping lanes so I think western intervention would be very likely.  Probably initially by backing right wing or at least anti-communist groups, of which there are likely to be a few.  Spain might be a factor in this or be presuaded to leave it to NATO as intervention by a Spanish right wing dictatorship could be too controversal.

  It might be purely support for internal forces, like the coup in Chile.  Would depend on what resources there were for both pro and anti communists elements and how critical time was for the western powers.  If they though the Soviets might start basing forces in Portugal that could prompt direct intervention as there might not be time for supporting internal revolution.

  Steve

I was also thinking, General Francisco Franco's died in 1975, if Spain would invade at a time before he dies then when he dies as he did in OTL we have a Spanish-Portuguese war and a major political crisis in Spain due General Francisco Franco's being death at the same time, that is going to be interesting.

[stevep]

Jan 5, 2017 22:25:28 GMT lordroel said:

Jan 5, 2017 20:51:19 GMT stevep said:

  I don't know.  Portugal is clearly in western Europe and controls important shipping lanes so I think western intervention would be very likely.  Probably initially by backing right wing or at least anti-communist groups, of which there are likely to be a few.  Spain might be a factor in this or be presuaded to leave it to NATO as intervention by a Spanish right wing dictatorship could be too controversal.

  It might be purely support for internal forces, like the coup in Chile.  Would depend on what resources there were for both pro and anti communists elements and how critical time was for the western powers.  If they though the Soviets might start basing forces in Portugal that could prompt direct intervention as there might not be time for supporting internal revolution.

  Steve

I was also thinking, General Francisco Franco's died in 1975, if Spain would invade at a time before he dies then when he dies as he did in OTL we have a Spanish-Portuguese war and a major political crisis in Spain due General Francisco Franco's being death at the same time, that is going to be interesting.

  Ugh!  Interesting in the Chinese sense as it could get very messy. 

[lordroel]

Jan 5, 2017 22:29:02 GMT stevep said:

Jan 5, 2017 22:25:28 GMT lordroel said:

I was also thinking, General Francisco Franco's died in 1975, if Spain would invade at a time before he dies then when he dies as he did in OTL we have a Spanish-Portuguese war and a major political crisis in Spain due General Francisco Franco's being death at the same time, that is going to be interesting.

  Ugh!  Interesting in the Chinese sense as it could get very messy. 

This could spread the Spanish-Portuguese war into a war engulfing the entire Iberian peninsula.