Getting it right the first time

[mcnutt]

I recently read Marathon, a very good book on the 1976 election. On page 602 it quotes a speech Gerald Ford made the day after he delevered his no Soviet domination gaffe: Last night in the debate I spoke of the America's firm support for the aspirations for independence of the nations of Eastern Europe. The United States has never conceded and never will concede their domination by the Soviet Union. I admire the courage of the Polish people and always supported the hopes of Polish Americans for freedom in thier ancestra homeland. What if he had used those words in the debate? He would have won. There were four very close states: Ohio Carter 48.92% Ford 48.65%, Wisconsin Carter 49.50% Ford 47.83%, Mississippi Carter 49.56% Ford 47.68% and Hawaii Carter 50.59 % Ford 48.06%. Switching their 47 electoral votes would mean a 288 to 250 Ford win in the Electoral College. Even if you just switched Ohio and Wisconsin, the two states with the large population of people of Eastern European descent, you get a 277 to 261 Ford win. Since the Popular vote was a relatively close: Carter 50.2% and Ford 48.0, Ford would probably win the Popular Vote and no longer be an unelected President. Switching 2% of the vote would only defeat 19 House Democrats, lowering the 292 to 143 OTL Democratic majority to 273 to 162. It would defeat future Colorado Senator Tim Wirth, future Appeals Court Judge and Clinton White House Counsel Abner Mikva as well as Martha Keys who was part of the only married couple to serve in Congress together. Also Newt Gingrich would get to Congress two years earlier than OTL. In the Senate, only Ohio's Howard Metezenbaum is defeated ITTL, lowering the Democratic majority from 61 to a still filibuster proof 60. In neither House do Democrats have a veto proof majority. Just as he did OTL form 1974-1977, Ford uses the veto to curb spending. The two biggest foriegn policy stories of the Carter years remain the same. In 1977, President Ford signs the Panama Canal Treaty. In 1978, he works for a successful ratification. With one less Democrat in the Senate, it may pass by a 67 to 33 vote not the OTL 68 to 32. In 1977, The Panama Canal Treaty splits the Republican Party,as it did OTL. Ronald Reagan leads the oppositon and it helps him win the 1980 Republican nomination, Anwar Sadat still goes to Jerusalem. The US becomes involved in the new Israeli Egyptian peace process. In 1978, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger hosts a successful summit at Camp David and in 1979 a peace treaty is signed. Kissinger enjoys the same popularity he did at the signing of the Vietnam cease fire in 1973. Ford like Carter did lets the deposed Shah of Iran in the counry.and there is a hostage crisis. The recession comes on schedule. This makes 1980 a Democratic year. The Democratic nominee, who I believe would have been Walter Mondale, can argue that with the bad economy and the drawn out embassy takeover it is time for change. He can also make use of Republican nominee Ronald Reagan's unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare. The Popular vote is Mondale 52% Reagan 42% Anderson 4%. Mondale carries Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Florida for 338 electoral votes. Reagan carries Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Alaska for 120 electoral votes. With a friendly Congress Mondale enacts new progressive legislation, including a health care program. Mondalecare is controversial at first but gains popularity and becomes a third rail of American politics.
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[lordroel]

Jun 5, 2017 20:43:27 GMT mcnutt said:

I recently read Marathon, a very good book on the 1976 election. On page 602 it quotes a speech Gerald Ford made the day after he delevered his no Soviet domination gaffe: Last night in the debate I spoke of the America's firm support for the aspirations for independence of the nations of Eastern Europe. The United States has never conceded and never will concede their domination by the Soviet Union. I admire the courage of the Polish people and always supported the hopes of Polish Americans for freedom in thier ancestra homeland. What if he had used those words in the debate? He would have won. There were four very close states: Ohio Carter 48.92% Ford 48.65%, Wisconsin Carter 49.50% Ford 47.83%, Mississippi Carter 49.56% Ford 47.68% and Hawaii Carter 50.59 % Ford 48.06%. Switching their 47 electoral votes would mean a 288 to 250 Ford win in the Electoral College. Even if you just switched Ohio and Wisconsin, the two states with the large population of people of Eastern European descent, you get a 277 to 261 Ford win. Since the Popular vote was a relatively close: Carter 50.2% and Ford 48.0, Ford would probably win the Popular Vote and no longer be an unelected President. Switching 2% of the vote would only defeat 19 House Democrats, lowering the 292 to 143 OTL Democratic majority to 273 to 162. It would defeat future Colorado Senator Tim Wirth, future Appeals Court Judge and Clinton White House Counsel Abner Mikva as well as Martha Keys who was part of the only married couple to serve in Congress together. Also Newt Gingrich would get to Congress two years earlier than OTL. In the Senate, only Ohio's Howard Metezenbaum is defeated ITTL, lowering the Democratic majority from 61 to a still filibuster proof 60. In neither House do Democrats have a veto proof majority. Just as he did OTL form 1974-1977, Ford uses the veto to curb spending. The two biggest foriegn policy stories of the Carter years remain the same. In 1977, President Ford signs the Panama Canal Treaty. In 1978, he works for a successful ratification. With one less Democrat in the Senate, it may pass by a 67 to 33 vote not the OTL 68 to 32. In 1977, The Panama Canal Treaty splits the Republican Party,as it did OTL. Ronald Reagan leads the oppositon and it helps him win the 1980 Republican nomination, Anwar Sadat still goes to Jerusalem. The US becomes involved in the new Israeli Egyptian peace process. In 1978, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger hosts a successful summit at Camp David and in 1979 a peace treaty is signed. Kissinger enjoys the same popularity he did at the signing of the Vietnam cease fire in 1973. Ford like Carter did lets the deposed Shah of Iran in the counry.and there is a hostage crisis. The recession comes on schedule. This makes 1980 a Democratic year. The Democratic nominee, who I believe would have been Walter Mondale, can argue that with the bad economy and the drawn out embassy takeover it is time for change. He can also make use of Republican nominee Ronald Reagan's unpopular views like his opposition to Medicare. The Popular vote is Mondale 52% Reagan 42% Anderson 4%. Mondale carries Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, West Virginia, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Florida for 338 electoral votes. Reagan carries Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Idaho and Alaska for 120 electoral votes. With a friendly Congress Mondale enacts new progressive legislation, including a health care program. Mondalecare is controversial at first but gains popularity and becomes a third rail of American politics.
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Would that help ore hurt Ford.

[mcnutt]

PIt obviously helps him. He makes an inspirational speech about freedom in Eastern Europe, he specificly mentions Poland and Polish Americans. Most of all he does not say there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. I think it helps him enough to win the election.

[lordroel]

Jun 6, 2017 3:45:25 GMT mcnutt said:

PIt obviously helps him. He makes an inspirational speech about freedom in Eastern Europe, he specificly mentions Poland and Polish Americans. Most of all he does not say there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. I think it helps him enough to win the election.

How many people of Eastern Europe descent live in the United States at that time, enough for him to win the election as you mention in the first post.

[mcnutt]

He is helped most of all by not sounding stupid.

[lordroel]

Jun 6, 2017 3:53:48 GMT mcnutt said:

He is helped most of all by not sounding stupid.

That is always helpful. wonder what his first full elected term in office will look like.

[spanishspy]

Jun 6, 2017 3:48:27 GMT lordroel said:

Jun 6, 2017 3:45:25 GMT mcnutt said:

PIt obviously helps him. He makes an inspirational speech about freedom in Eastern Europe, he specificly mentions Poland and Polish Americans. Most of all he does not say there is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe. I think it helps him enough to win the election.

How many people of Eastern Europe descent live in the United States at that time, enough for him to win the election as you mention in the first post.

There have been enough to likely swing a few states since at least the late 19th century.